CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

1. A point (𝑥, 𝑦) is chosen from the circular region 𝐷 = {(𝑥, 𝑦)|𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2 ≤ 1} in such a way that
the probability that the point is chosen from any region in D is proportional to its area.

The conditional probability that 𝑦 ≤ 0 given that 𝑥 ≥ 1⁄2

Solution:

𝐷 = {(𝑥, 𝑦)|𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2 ≤ 1} It forms a circle as (0, 0) as center and radius ≤ 1.

2. A point (𝑥, 𝑦) is chosen from the circular region 𝐷 = {(𝑥, 𝑦)|𝑥 2 + 𝑦 2 ≤ 1}, in such a way that
the probability that the point is chosen from any region in D is proportional to its area.

The conditional probability that 𝑥 + 𝑦 ≥ 1 given that (𝑥, 𝑦) lies inside the square & given by
−1 1
≤ 𝑥, 𝑦 ≤
√2 √2

𝑃(𝑥 + 𝑦 ≥ 1|(𝑥, 𝑦)𝑖𝑛 𝑆) =?

3. A test tube contains 25 bacteria, 5 of which are can stay alive for atleast 30 days, 10 of which
will die in their second day. 10 of which are already dead.

Given that a randomly chosen bacterium for experiment is alive. What is the probability it will
still be alive after one week?

(a) 1⁄3 (b) 2⁄3

(c) 1⁄5 (d) 4⁄5

Solution:

It is given that the bacteria is alive.

Let E be the event chosen one will live for 30 days.

Let F be the event that chosen one is already dead.

𝐸 𝑃(𝐸 ∩ 𝐹 ′ ) 5/25 5 1
𝑃 ( ′) = ′
= = =
𝐹 𝑃(𝐹 ) 15/25 15 3
4. Four players Harry, Ron, Hermione and Ginny are playing a card game. A deck of 52 cards
are dealt out equally. If Hermione and Ginny have a total of 8 spades among them, what is the
probability that Harry has 3 of the remaining 5 spades?

(a) 0.669 (b) 0.339

(c) 0.331 (d) 0.661

Solution:

It is given that Harry and Ginny have a total of 8 spades among 26 cards.

∴ In the remaining 26 cards there are exactly 5 spades.

These 26 cards are distributed equally among Harry and Ron [13 each]

(5𝐶 3 )(21𝐶 10 )
𝑃(𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑦 ℎ𝑎𝑠 3 𝑜𝑓 5 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠) = (26𝐶 13 )
= 0.339

5. Prabha is working in a software company. Her manager is running a dinner for those
employees having atleast one son. If Prabha is invited to the dinner and everyone knows she has
two children. What is the probability that they are both boys?
1 1
(a) 4 (b) 3

1 2
(c) 2 (d) 3

Solution:

Total possibilities: {(𝑏, 𝑏)

(𝑏, 𝑔)

(𝑔, 𝑏)

(𝑔, 𝑔)}

It is given that she is invited to dinner.

∴ She has a boy.

1⁄ 1
P(She has two boys/ she is invited to dinner) = 3⁄4 = 3
4
6. Elliot in undecided as to whether to take a Number theory course or a Network security
course. He estimates that his probability of receiving on A grade would be ½ in Number theory,
and 2/3 in Network security. If Elliot decides to base his decision of the flip of a unbiased coin
what is the probability that she gets on A in Network security?
2 1
(a) 3 (b) 2

1 3
(c) 3 (d) 4

Solution:

Let P(C) denote probability of taking course.

P(CA) denotes probability that he gets A in the course C.

Let C: Network security

∴ P (Network security and getting A) = P(taking NS) ⨯ P(getting A in Network security)

P(NA) = P(N) ⨯ P(A/ N)

1 2 1
𝑃(𝑁𝐴) = 2 × 3 = 3

7. Suppose that a bag contains 8 blue cubes and 4 green cubes. We draw 2 cubes from the bag
without replacement. It is given that blue balls are of weight 1Kg and green balls are of weight
0.5 Kg. Suppose that the probability that a given cube in the bag is the next one selected is its
weight divided by the sum of the weights of all cubes currently in the bag. What is the
probability that both cubes are blue?
8 14
(a) 12 (b) 33

28 14
(c) (d)
45 35

Solution:

Let 𝐵𝑖 be the event that the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ cube chosen is blue.

𝐵2
𝑃(𝐵1 𝐵2 ) = 𝑃(𝐵1 )×𝑃 ( )
𝐵1

If we number, the blue cubes

and let 𝐶𝑖 𝑙 = 1, 2, … … 8 be the event that the first cube drawn is blue cube 𝑖
8

∴ 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = ∑ 𝑃(𝐶𝑖 )
𝑖=1

𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑢𝑏𝑒 1 1 8 4

= 8( ) = 8( )= =
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑤𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑏𝑒𝑠 1 8+2 10 5
8×1 + 4× 2

Give that the first cube is blue, now the bag contains 7 blue cubes and 4 green cubes.

𝐵2 4 7 28
∴ 𝑃(𝐵1 𝐵2 ) = 𝑃(𝐵1 ) ⨯ 𝑃 ( ) = × =
𝐵1 5 9 45

8. An ordinary deck of 52 playing cards is randomly decoded into 4 piles of 13 cards each. The
probability that each pile has exactly 1 ace is ________[Enter upto 3 decimals]

Solution:

Let Define events 𝐸𝑖 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3, 4 as follows.

𝐸1 = {𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠}

𝐸2 = {𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑒}

𝐸3 = {𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠, ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠}

𝐸4 = {𝑎𝑙𝑙 4 𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑑𝑖𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑠}

The desired probability is 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3 𝐸4 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸2 |𝐸1 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸3 |𝐸1 𝐸2 ) ∙ 𝑃(𝐸1 |𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3 )

𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 1

39
𝑃(𝐸2 |𝐸1 ) =
51
26
𝑃(𝐸3 |𝐸1 𝐸2 ) =
50
13
𝑃(𝐸1 |𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3 ) = 49

39 26 13
𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3 𝐸4 ) = 1× × × ≈ 0.105
51 50 49
9. Hermione is taking her potions exam. Suppose the probability that she will finish the exam is
less than ℎ hours is ℎ/2, for all 0 ≤ ℎ ≤ 1. Given that she is still waiting after 0.75 hours, what
is the conditional probability that full hour is used?

Solution:

𝑃((𝑇 > 1)𝑛(𝑇 > 0.75))

𝑃(𝑇 > 1|𝑇 > 0.75) =
𝑃(𝑇 > 0.75)
𝑃(𝑇>1)
= 𝑃(𝑇>0.75)

1−𝑃(𝑇<1)
= 3
1−𝑃(𝑇< )
4

1 1
1−
2 2
= 3 = 5
1−
8 8

1 8
= 2×5

4
=5

10. A treasure has 6 similar gold coins and 9 silver coins. If 4 coins are to be randomly selected
without replacement, the probability that the first 2 selected are gold and the last 2 silver
_______ [Enter value up to 3 decimals].

Solution:

If 𝐺𝑖 is the event that the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ coin is gold

𝑆𝑖 is the event that the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ coin is silver

𝑃(𝑊1 ∩ 𝑊2 ∩ 𝐵3 ∩ 𝐵4 ) = 𝑃(𝑊1 )𝑃(𝑊2 |𝑊1 )𝑃(𝐵3|𝑊1 ∩ 𝑊2 )𝑃(𝐵4 |𝑊1 ∩ 𝑊2 ∩ 𝐵3)

6 5 9 8
= × × ×
15 14 13 12

3×2
= 7×13

6
= 91 ≈ 0.065

11. The King comes from a family of 2 children. What is the probability that the other child is
his sister? [assume the countries with absolute primogeniture (first born)]
 1 2
(a) 3 (b) 3

1
(c) 2 (d) None of them

Solution:

Given that family has two children.

∴ There are 4 possibilities

(𝑏, 𝑔) (𝑔, 𝑏) (𝑏, 𝑏) (𝑔, 𝑔)

It is given that there is a King. So now there are

(𝑏, 𝑔) (𝑔, 𝑏) (𝑎, 𝑏)

It is also given that the country is absolute primogeniture so King can’t have older sister.

Now (𝑆) = (𝑏, 𝑔) (𝑏, 𝑏)

1
∴ The probability that the other child is girl is = 2

12. In the Hogwarts school of witchcraft and wizardry Harry Potter opted for 3 subjects in his 3rd
year. The exam starts from June. If he passes the charms exam in June then he will take the
second exam potions in July and if he also passes that one, then he will take the third exam
Herbology in September.

If he fails an exam, then he is not allowed any other. The probability that he passes the Charms
exam is 0.9. If he passes the Charms exam then the Conditional probability that he passes the
Potions is 0.8, and if he passes the both Charms and Potions then the conditional probability that
he passes the Herbology exam is 0.7.

(a) the probability that he passes all three exams ________ [up to 3 decimal digits]

Solution:

𝑃(𝐸3 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 𝐸3 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸2 |𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸3 |𝐸1 𝐸2 )

= 0.9×0.8×0.7

= 0.504

(b) Given that he did not pass all three exams, the conditional probability that he failed in Potions
is _________ [up to 3 decimal digits]

Solution:
If he fails the Potions exam then he must have passed the Charms

𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 ′𝐸3 ′)
𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 ′|𝐸3 ′) =
𝑃(𝐸3 ′)
𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 ′)
= {∵ 𝐻𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛′ 𝑡𝑤𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑒 𝐸3 𝑖𝑓 ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐸2 }
𝑃(𝐸3 ′)

𝑃(𝐸2 |𝐸1 ) = 0.8

𝑃(𝐸2 ′|𝐸1 ) = 0.2

𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 ′) = 𝑃(𝐸2 ′|𝐸1 )×𝑃(𝐸1 )

= 0.2×0.9 = 0.18

0.18
𝑃(𝐸1 𝐸2 ′|𝐸3 ′) =
1 − 𝑃(𝐸3 )
0.18
= 1−0.504

0.18
= 0.496

= 0.3629

13. Sixteen players 𝑃1 , 𝑃2 , 𝑃3 … … … 𝑃16 play in a tournament. They are divided into eight pairs at
random, from each pair a winner is decided on the basis of a game played between the two
players of the pairs. Assuming that all the players are of equal strength, the probability that
exactly one of the two players 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 is among the eight winners is ________.
11 7
(a) 15 (b) 15

8 17
(c) 15 (d) 30

Solution:
Let 𝐸1 denote the event that 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 are paired
𝐸2 denote the event that 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 are not paired

Let 𝐴 denote the event that one of two players 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 is among the winners.

Since, 𝑃1 can be paired with any of the remaining 15 players

1
𝑃(𝐸1 ) =
15
1 14
𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 1 − =
15 15
In case 𝐸1 occurs, it contains that one of 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 will be among the winners. In case 𝐸2 occurs,
the probability that exactly one of the 𝑃1 and 𝑃2 is among the winner is

𝑃((𝑃1 ∩ 𝑃̅2 ) ∪ (𝑃̅1 ∩ 𝑃2 )) = 𝑃(𝑃1 ∩ 𝑃̅2 ) + 𝑃(𝑃̅1 ∩ 𝑃2 )

= 𝑃(𝑃1 )𝑃(𝑃̅2 ) + 𝑃(𝑃̅1 )𝑃(𝑃2 )

1 1 1 1
= (2) (1 − 2) + (1 − 2) (2)

1 1
=4+4

1
=2

𝐴 𝐴 1
∴ 𝑃 (𝐸 ) = 1 𝑃 (𝐸 ) = 2
1 2

𝐴 𝐴
∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃 ( ) 𝑃(𝐸1 ) + 𝑃 ( ) 𝑃(𝐸2 )
𝐸1 𝐸2
1 1 14
= 1× 15 + 2 (15)

1
= 15 (1 + 7)

8
= 15

14. You are in a game show! There are 10 closed doors, 0 leads to nothing and 1 leads to an
expensive sports car. You are allowed to pick a door and earn the sports car if it’s behind the
door you choose. You choose a door and the host tells you he was preauthorized to make your
chance of winning better! You have two options.
Option 1: Get the right to open two doors and win if the car is behind either of the ones you
open.

Option 2: Have the host open 5 empty doors [None of them the one you had choose] and then get
the right to switch if you want.

If you want to win the car, what should you do?

(a) Go with option 2 and switch

(b) You should be indifferent

(c) Go with option 2, then don’t switch

(d) Go with option 1

Solution:

⟹ If you take option 1, then you have 2 chances in 10 to get the car, for a probability of 1/5 of
Success.

⟹ If you take option 2, and don’t, your chance of Success remains equal to 1/10 [not helpful]

⟹ If you take option and switch

There is 9/10 probability that the car is not in the first door you choose and ¼ probability
in the remaining 4 closed doors. [one you already choose a host open 5 doors]

∴ The probability you get the car is

9 1 9 1 8
× = > ( )
10 4 40 5 40
9 8
= 40 > 40

and thus, option 2 with switching is better than option 1 by 1/40.

15. Question 14, where in option two the host will open 4 doors.

Solution:

Same solution as above

Option 2 with switch will have

 9 1 9 1 10
= 10 × 5 = 50 < 5 (50)

and thus, option 1 is better than option 2 with switching by 1/50.

16. Suppose there are two doctors of surgeries that doctors perform. Doctor A has a higher
success rate than Doctor B on first type of surgery. Doctor A also has a higher success rate than
Doctor B on second type of surgery. Is it true that Doctor A necessarily has higher overall
success rate than Doctor B?

(a) It must be false

(b) Yes, it must be true

(c) It can be true but not necessarily

Solution:

Though this might at first sight appeal to true, that is not necessarily false.

Suppose that the two types of surgeries are vastly different in difficulty, and Doctor A just
performs many more of the difficult surgery than Doctor B, bringing his average down.

On the first surgery, Doctor A can perform it with 95% success and Doctor B achieves 90%
success. However, on the second, Doctor A has a 50% success rate and Doctor B has 10%
success rate.

Doctor A performs the first surgery 20% of the time.

20 95 80 50
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × + × = 59%
100 100 100 100
However, Doctor B performs the first surgery 80% of the time.

80 90 20 10
𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = × + × = 74%
100 100 100 100

17. Two fair dice are rolled and it is revealed that one of the numbers rolled was a 4. What is the
probability that the other number rolled was a 6?

Note: You are not told which of the numbers rolled is a 4.

1 1
(a) 18 (b) 6
 2 1
(c) 11 (d) 36

Solution:

Let 𝐸6 be the event of other dice showing 6.

𝐸4 be the event of one dice showing 4.

𝐸4 𝑃(𝐸4 ∩ 𝐸6 )
𝑃( )=
𝐸6 𝑃(𝐸6 )

2⁄ ((4, 6), (6, 4))

= 11⁄36
36 ((1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 5), (4, 6))
2
= 11

18. One green ball, one blue ball and two red balls are placed in a bowl, one draw two
simultaneously from the bowl and announce that atleast one of them is red. What is the chance
that the other ball one have drawn out is also red?
1 1
(a) 3 (b) 6

1 1
(c) 5 (d) 4

Solution:

There are 6 possible pairings of the two balls draw [4C2]

𝑅1 , 𝑅2 , 𝑅1 , 𝐵, 𝑅1 , 𝐺
𝐵, 𝑅2 , 𝐵1 , 𝐺 ⨉ [𝐼𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑅𝑒𝑑]
𝐺, 𝑅2

∴ Now only 5 possible combinations remaining

∴ Therefore, the chance that the Red1 & Red 2 pairing has been drawn are 1 in 5 = 1/5

Method 2:
5
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃(𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙) = 6 [𝑅1 𝑅2 𝑅1 𝐵1 𝑅2 𝐵1 𝑅1 𝐺1 𝑅2 𝐺1 𝐵𝐺]

1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠) =
6
 𝐵
𝑃 ( ) = 𝑃(𝑑𝑟𝑎𝑤𝑖𝑛𝑔 2𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑑)
𝐴
𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑠)
= 𝑃(𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙)

𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
= 𝑃(𝐴)

1
6
= 5
6

1
=5

19. On planet XZ101X, there are two types of creatures: small brain and big brain.

Small brain tells the truth 6/7 of the time and only 1/7 of the time, while big brain tells the truth
1/5 of the time and lie 4/5 of the time.

It is also known that there is 2/3 chance a creature from XZ101X is a small brain and a 1/3
chance that it is a big brain but there is no way of differentiating from these two types.

You are visiting XZ101X on a research trip. During your stay you come across a creature who
states that it has found a one line proof format’s last theorem.

Immediately after that, a second creature shows up and states that the first creatures statement
was a true one.

If the probability that the first creature’s statement was actually true is a/ b for some co-prime
positive integer 𝑎, 𝑏. The value of 𝑏 − 𝑎 = __________.

(a) 4489 (b) 1444

(c) 5933 (d) Can’t determine

Solution:

Let A be the event the first creature’s statement was truth

B be the event that the second creature says that the first creature’s statement was true.

𝐴 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃( ) =
𝐵 𝑃(𝐵)

In order to find 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) and 𝑃(𝐵) we will consider four cases based on the type of creatures.

Case 1: Consider the first one is tell the truth and 2nd one also telling the truth.
 1st 2nd Probability

small small (2/3) (6/7) (2/3) (6/7) 2/3 : probability that the creature is small

small big (2/3) (6/7) (1/3) (1/5) 6/7 : it tells truth

big small (1/3) (1/5) (2/3) (6/7)

big big (1/3) (1/5) (1/3) (1/5)

2 6 2 6 2 6 1 1 1 1 2 6 1 1 1 1
∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = ∙ ∙ ∙ + ∙ ∙ ∙ + ∙ ∙ ∙ + ∙ ∙ ∙
3 7 3 7 3 7 3 5 3 5 3 7 3 5 3 5

2 6 2 2 6 1 1 1 1 2
= (3 ∙ 7) + 2 (3 ∙ 7 ∙ 3 ∙ 5) + (3 ∙ 5)

2 6 1 1 2
= (3 ∙ 7 + 3 ∙ 5)

12 1 2
= (21 + 15)

67 2
= (105)

Case 2: First one tells truth second one tells lie [we don’t need to consider this case, it is already
given that second one told first one’s statement was true]

Case 3: First one tells lie second one tells truth [for the same reason we will ignore this one]

Case 4: First one tells lie second one also tells lie

1st 2nd Probability

2 1 2 1
small small (3) (7) (3) (7)

2 1 1 4
small big (3) (7) (3) (5)

1 4 2 1
big small (3) (5) (3) (7)

1 4 1 4
big big (3) (5) (3) (5)

2 1 2 2 1 1 4 1 4 2
𝑆𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑒𝑠 = ( ∙ ) + 2 ( ∙ ∙ ∙ ) + ( ∙ )
3 7 3 7 3 5 3 5
 2 1 1 4 2
= (3 ∙ 7 + 3 ∙ 5)

2 4 2
= (21 + 15)

38 2
= (105)

∴ P (2nd creature telling that the 1st creature’s statement is true)

∴ 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒 1) + 𝑃(𝑐𝑠𝑎𝑒 2)

(67)2 38 2
= (105)2 + (105)

𝐴 𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵) (67)2
𝑃 (𝐵 ) = = (67)2 +(38)2
𝑃(𝐵)

∴ 𝑎 = (67)2 𝑏 = (67)2 + (38)2

𝑏 − 𝑎 = (38)2 = 1444

20. A bag contains a blue ball, some red balls and some green balls, you reach into bag and pulls
out three balls at random. The probability you pull out one of each color is exactly 3%. How
many balls were initially in the bag, if the product of number of red balls and green balls given =
598.

(a) 49 (b) 50

(c) 51 (d) 52

Solution:

Let P(R, G, B) = the probability of choosing 3 different colors if there are R reds, G greens, B
blues
𝑅𝐶1 ×𝐺𝐶1 ×𝐵𝐶1
= 𝑅+𝐺+3𝐶3

𝑅×𝐺×𝐵
= 𝑅+𝐺+𝐵
𝐶3

Given B = 1
𝑅×𝐺
∴ 𝑃(𝑅, 𝐺, 1) = 𝑅+𝐺+1
𝐶3
 𝑃(𝑅, 𝐺, 1) = 3%
𝑅𝐺 3
= 100
𝑅+𝐺+1𝐶3

3 (𝑅+𝐺+1)(𝑅+𝐺)(𝑅+𝐺−1)
𝑅𝐺 = 100 × 6

200𝑅𝐺 = (𝑅 + 𝐺)((𝑅 + 𝐺)2 − 1)

(𝑅 + 𝐺)3 − (𝑅 + 𝐺) = 200𝑅𝐺

If you go with the options and verify this equation,

(49)2 − 49 = 200×21×28

117600 = 117600

∴ Sum of all balls equal to

49 + 1 = 50

21. Two people have to spend exactly 15 consecutive minutes in a bar on a given day between
12.00 to 13.00. Assume uniformly arrival times, what is the probability that they will meet.

Solution:

Let’s try to answer this question graphically.

⟹ the two people can’t arrive after 12.45 since they have to spend atleast 15min.

⟹ they meet if their arrival times differ by less than 15min.

Some of the meeting points:

 (12.00, 12.15) or (12.15, 12.00)
(12.30, 12.45) or (12.45, 12.30)

They meet if the point representing this arrival times is between the two lines (line 1, line 2).

∴ We just need to calculate the area in between the lines (line 1, line 2)

= 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 − 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎(𝑇1 ) − 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎(𝑇2 )

1 1
= 45×45 − 2 ×30×30 − 2 ×30×30

= 45×45 − 30×30

= 2025 − 900

= 1125

𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒𝑠 1125 5

∴ 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 = = =
𝑤ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑒𝑎 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 2025 9

22. In a factory there are 100 units of certain product, 5 of which are defective. We pick three
units from the 100 units at random what is the probability that none of them are defective?
_______ [Enter up to 3 decimal digits]

Solution:

Let 𝐴𝑖 be the event that the 𝑖 𝑡ℎ chosen unit is not defective, for 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3

By multiplication theorem,

𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) =?

= 𝑃(𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴2 ⁄𝐴1 )𝑃(𝐴3 ⁄𝐴1 , 𝐴2 )

95
𝑃(𝐴1 ) = [𝐼𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑔𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 5 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒]
100
94 𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑤𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑙𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑𝑦 𝑠𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑜𝑛𝑒, 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑎𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒
𝑃(𝐴2 ⁄𝐴1 ) = [ ]
99 𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑖𝑠 (100 − 1)𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑛𝑜𝑛 − 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 (95 − 1)
93
𝑃(𝐴3 ⁄𝐴1 , 𝐴2 ) =
98
95 94 93
∴ 𝑃(𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 ∩ 𝐴3 ) = × × = 0.8650
100 99 98
23. I toss a coin repeatedly until J observes the first tails at which point J stop. Let X be the total
number of coin tosses. 𝑃(𝑋 = 5) is _________
1 1
(a) 2 (b) 5

1 1
(c) 32 (d) 64

Solution:

𝑃(𝑋 = 5) means that the first 4 coin tosses result in heads and the fifth one results in tails.

Thus, the probability of sequence 𝐻 𝐻 𝐻 𝐻 𝑇 when tossing a coin five times

𝑃(𝐻 𝐻 𝐻 𝐻 𝑇) = 𝑃(𝐻) ∙ 𝑃(𝐻) ∙ 𝑃(𝐻) ∙ 𝑃(𝐻) ∙ 𝑃(𝑇)

1 1 1 1 1
= 2 ∙ 2 ∙ 2 ∙ 2 ∙ 2 [𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡]

1
= 32

1
24. Suppose that the probability of being killed in a single flight in 𝑃𝑐 = 4×106 based or available
statistics. Assume that different flights are independent if a man takes 5 flights per year the
probability that he is killed in a plane crash within the next 4 years is ________ (approximately).
1 1
(a) 10000 (b) 5×105

1 1
(c) 4×105 (d) 2×105

Solution:

Number of flights he will take in next 20 years = 5×4 = 20

Let E be the event that the business man is killed in a plane crash within next 20 years

(ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑠𝑢𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑎𝑙𝑙 400 𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡𝑠)

𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − 𝑃 ⏟
𝐿𝑒𝑡 𝐹

= 1 − 𝑃(𝐹)

𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃𝑠 ×𝑃𝑠 … … 𝑃𝑠 (𝑁 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 = 400 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠) as the flights are independent

= 𝑃𝑠 𝑁
 = (1 − 𝑃𝑐 )𝑁

∴ 𝑃(𝐸) = 1 − (1 − 𝑃𝑐 )𝑁

1 20
= 1 − (1 − 4×106 )

= 1 − (1 − 0.25×10−6 )

= 1 − 0.999995

= 0.000005
5
= 106

1
= 2×105

25. I have three bags that each contains 100 marbles:

Bag 1: 75 red and 25 blue

Bag 2: 60 red and 40 blue
Bag 3: 45 red and 56 blue

I choose one of the bag at random and then pick a marble from the chosen bag also at random.

What is the probability that the chosen marble is red?

(a) 0.60 (b) 0.75

(c) 0.45 (d) 0.50

Solution:

Let 𝑅 ⟶ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑛 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑑

𝐵𝑖 ⟶ 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑡 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝐵𝑎𝑔 𝑖

75
𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵1 ) = 100

60
𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵2 ) = 100

45
𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵3 ) = 100

𝑃(𝑅) = 𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵1 ) 𝑃(𝐵1 ) + 𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵2 ) 𝑃(𝐵2 ) + 𝑃(𝑅 ⁄𝐵3 ) 𝑃(𝐵3 )
 1 1 1
= 0.75× 3 + 0.60× 3 + 0.45× 3 = 0.60

26. A box contains three coins: two regular coins and one take two-headed coin (𝑃(𝐻) = 1).

You pick a coin at random and toss it. What is the probability that it lands heads up?
1 1
(a) 3 (b) 4

2 1
(c) 3 (d) 2

Solution:

Let 𝐶1 be the event that you choose a regular coin

Let 𝐶2 be the event that you choose the two-headed coin

𝑃(𝐻 ⁄𝐶1 ) = 1/2

𝑃(𝐻 ⁄𝐶2 ) = 1

∴ 𝑃(𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐻 ⁄𝐶1 ) 𝑃(𝐶1 ) + 𝑃(𝐻 ⁄𝐶2 ) 𝑃(𝐶2 )

1 2 1
= 2 × 3 + 1× 3

1 1
=3+3

2
=3

27. For three events A, B and C, we know that

• A and C are independent

• B and C are independent
• A and B are disjoint
2 3 11
• 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 3 𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 4 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 12

𝑃(𝐴) = ___________
1 1
(a) 2 (b) 3

12 2
(c) 17 (d) 3
Solution:

Let’s assume 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑎

𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑏
𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑐

Let’s visualize these events

It’s given
2
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑎 + 𝑐 − 𝑎𝑐 = 3

3
𝑃(𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑏 + 𝑐 − 𝑏𝑐 = 4

11
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 − 𝑎𝑐 − 𝑏𝑐 = 12

11 2 3
𝑎 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 − 𝑎𝑐 − 𝑏𝑐 − 𝑎 − 𝑐 + 𝑎𝑐 − 𝑏 − 𝑐 + 𝑏𝑐 = − −
12 3 4
11 17
−𝑐 = −
12 12
1
𝑐=2

1 1 2
𝑎 + 2 − 𝑎 (2) = 3

𝑎 1 2
+2=3
2

𝑎 2 1 4−3
= − =
2 3 2 6

𝑎 1
=6
2
 1
𝑎=3

28. Elliot bought a computer, the manual states that the life time T of the product [in years], the
computer works properly until it breaks down, satisfies

𝑃(𝑇 ≥ 𝑡) = 𝑒 −𝑡/5 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑡 ≥ 0

He purchases the computer and uses it for two years without any problems. What is the
probability that it breaks down in the third year?

(a) 𝐸1 → 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑠 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑟𝑑 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

𝐸2 → 𝑑𝑜𝑒𝑠 ′ 𝑡 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑠 𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑡𝑤𝑜 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟

we have to find 𝑃(𝐸1 ⁄𝐸2 )

𝑃(𝐸2 ) = 𝑃(𝑇 ≥ 2) = 𝑒 −2/5

𝑃(𝐸1 ) = 𝑃(2 ≤ 𝑇 ≤ 3)

= 𝑃(𝑇 ≥ 2) − 𝑃(𝑇 ≥ 3)

= 𝑒 −2/5 − 𝑒 −3/5
𝐸 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩𝐸2 )
𝑃 (𝐸1 ) = 𝐸1 ⊂ 𝐸2
2 𝑃(𝐸1 )

𝑃(𝐸 )
= 𝑃(𝐸1 )
2

2 3
− −
𝑒 5 −𝑒 5
= 2
−
𝑒 5

= 0.1813

29. A machine produce parts that are either good (90%), slightly defective (2%) or obviously
defective (8%) produced parts get passed through an automatic inspection machine, which is able
to detect any part that obviously defective and discard it. What is the quality of the parts that
make it through the inspection machine and get shipped?

(a) 0.978 (b) 0.987

(c) 0.990 (d) 0.988

Solution:

Let G be the event that a randomly chosen shipped part is good.

SD ⟶ slightly defective
OD ⟶ obviously defective

Given, P(G) = 0.9

P(SD) = 0.02
P(OD) = 0.08

We need to find the probability that a part is given that it is passed through inspection machine

𝐺 𝑃(𝐺 ∩ 𝑂𝐷′ )
𝑃 ( ′) =
𝑂𝐷 𝑃(𝑂𝐷′ )
𝑃(𝐺)
= 𝑃(𝑂𝐷′ )

0.90
= 1−0.08

90
= 92

= 0.978

30. Your neighbor has two children; you learn that he has a son Joe. What is the probability that
Joe’s sibling is a brother?
1 1
(a) 2 (b) 3

1 3
(c) 4 (d) 4

Solution:

Let E be the Event that the neighbor has a son.

3
𝑃(𝐸) = [𝐸 = {(𝑏, 𝑔) (𝑔, 𝑏) (𝑏, 𝑏)]
4
1
𝑃(𝐹) = 𝑃(𝐽𝑜𝑒 ℎ𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑏𝑟𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟) = [𝐸 = {(𝑏, 𝑏)}]
4
𝑃(𝐹 ∩ 𝐸)
𝑃(𝐹 ⁄𝐸 ) =
𝑃(𝐸)
 𝑃(𝐹)
= 𝑃(𝐸)

1
4
= 3
4

1
=3

Linked Question to 30

31. Your neighbor has 2 children. He picks one of them at random and comes by your house; he
brings a boy named Elliot. What is the probability that Elliot’s sibling is a brother?
1 1
(a) 2 (b) 3

1 3
(c) 4 (d) 4

Solution:

In the above Example had event E that “your neighbor has a son”. Let’s consider E’ that “your
neighbor randomly chooses one of his 2 children, and that chosen one is a son”.

∴ 𝐸′ ⊂ 𝐸

∴ 𝐸 ′ happening implies that event 𝐸 happens.

It does not go the other way [Just because he has a son doesn’t mean that he choose that son at
random]
Linked question with 29: Consider the problem 29 again, but now assume that a one year given
warranty is given for the parts that are shipped to the customer. Suppose that a good part fails
within first year with probability 0.01, while a slightly defective part fails.

30. Within the first year with probability 0.10. What is the probability that a customer receives a
part that fails within the first year and therefore entitled to a warranty replacement?

(a) 0.021 (b) 0.120

(c) 0.25 (d) 0.012

Solution:
90
We know that 𝑃(𝐺) = 92

2
𝑃(𝑆𝐷) = 92

Let E be the event that a randomly selected customer’s part fails in the first year.
We have given that

𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐺 ) = 0.01

𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝑆𝐷 ) = 0.10

𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐺 )𝑃(𝐺) + 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝑆𝐷)𝑃(𝑆𝐷)

90 2
= 0.01× 92 + 0.10× 92

= 0.012

33. If six cards are selected at random (without replacement) from a standard deck of 52 cards,
what is the probability there will be no pairs? (two cards of same denomination)

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

Solution:

Let 𝐸𝑖 be the event that the first 𝑖 cards have no pairs among them. Then we want to compute
𝑃(𝐸6 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 … … … 𝐸6 ) 𝐸6 ⊂ 𝐸5 ⊂ 𝐸4 … … … ⊂ 𝐸1

𝑃(𝐸1 ∩ 𝐸2 … … … 𝐸6 ) = 𝑃(𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸2 ⁄𝐸1 )𝑃(𝐸3 ⁄𝐸1 𝐸2 ) … … …

52 48 44 40 36 32
= 52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 35 × 47

44×4×12×32
= 17×5×49×47

1
34. Let A and B be independent events 𝑃(𝐴) = 4 , 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 2𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴), 𝑃(𝐵′ /𝐴) =
__________
2 3
(a) 5 (b) 5

1 3
(c) 4 (d) 4

Solution:

𝑃(𝐵 ′ ∩ 𝐴)
𝑃(𝐵 ′ ∩ 𝐴) =
𝑃(𝐴)
 𝑃(𝐴)−𝑃(𝐵∩𝐴)
= 𝑃(𝐴)

1 2 1
−( )( )
4 5 4
= 1
4

3
=5

∵ 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

1 1
= 4 + 𝑃(𝐵) − 4 𝑃(𝐵)

1 1
= 4 + 𝑃(𝐵) − 4 𝑃(𝐵)

1
= 2𝑃(𝐵) − 4

= 𝑃(𝐵) = 2/5

35. Consider independent trails consisting of rolling a pair of fair dice, over and over. What is the
probability that a sum of 5 appears before sum of 7?
1 1
(a) 6 (b) 5

2
(c) 9 (d) None of them

Solution:

Let E be the event we see a sum 5 before a sum of 7.

Let F be the event the first roll is a 5.
Let G be the event that the first roll is a 7.
Let H be the event that the first roll is a sum other than 5 or 7.

4
𝑃(𝐹) = [(1, 4) (4, 1) (3, 2) (2, 3)]
36
6
𝑃(𝐺) = [(1, 6) (6, 1) (2, 5) (5, 2) (3, 4) (4, 3)]
36
26
𝑃(𝐻) = [1 − 𝑃(𝐹) − 𝑃(𝐺)]
36
𝑃(𝐸) = 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐹 )𝑃(𝐹) + 𝑃(𝐸/𝐺)𝑃(𝐺) + 𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐻 )𝑃(𝐻)
𝑃(𝐸 ⁄𝐹 )

Given that the first roll is 5, probability getting a 5 before 7 is 1.

𝑃(𝐸/𝐺)

Given that the first roll is 7, probability getting a 5 before 7 is 0.

𝑃(𝐸/𝐺)

Given that the first roll’s sum is neither 5 nor 7, we can think of the process starts all over again.

The chance we get a 5 before 7 is just like it was 𝑃(𝐸) before we started rolling.

𝑃(𝐸/𝐻) = 𝑃(𝐸)

4 6 26
∴ 𝑃(𝐸) = 1× + 0× + ×𝑃(𝐸)
36 36 36
4 26
𝑃(𝐸) = + 𝑃(𝐸)
36 36
10 4
𝑃(𝐸) =
36 36

𝑃(𝐸) = 2/5

𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚
36. Given 𝑃(𝐴) = 0.9 and 𝑃(𝐵) = 0.8 the 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵 ) = ________ [Enter upto 3
𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚
decimal values]

Solution:

Minimum:

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵 ) =
𝑃(𝐵)

For minimum value of 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) we should have minimum of 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).

∴ 𝑀𝑖𝑛 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)

To minimize 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 1
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.8 + 0.9 − 1

𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.7

0.7 7
∴ 𝑚𝑖𝑛 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = = = 0.875
0.8 8

Maximum:
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴⁄𝐵 ) = 𝑃(𝐵)

𝑚𝑎𝑥(𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)) ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑛 𝐵 ⊂ 𝐴

∴ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 0.8

0.8
∴ (𝑃(0.8⁄0.8)) = =1
0.8