Final Year Project Proposal: Title

Final Year Project Proposal
TITLE
Rainfall-Runoff, flood Inundation of the 2010 Pakistan flood
in the Upstream of Indus River
MEMBERS
Zarak Khan Mahsud CU-255-2016
Shahaan Ali Khan CU-342-2016
Irshad Noor CU-285-2016
Muhammad Junaid Nawab CU-348-2016
SUPERVISOR:
Engr. Amir Shehzad
(12/10/2019)
CECOS UNIVERSITY
1-Introduction
1.1: General:
Floods are created by unusual water-level rises in rivers or lakes, or by sea-level
rises along coasts, that overflow their natural or artificial confinements. A natural
and random phenomenon, floods are sparked by high rainfall, storm surges,
typhoons, dam failures, glacial lake outbursts, or tsunamis. In developing
countries, floods are also linked to ever-increasing demographic pressures and
economic development, which have often resulted in catchment degradation and
waterway encroachment. Further, poorly planned river basin development, flawed
land-use planning and practices, inadequate legal and policy instruments, and poor
governance facilitate the inappropriate exploitation of resources near rivers, lakes,
and seacoasts by populations and governments, often resulting in devastating
damage during floods.
1.2 Study Area (Upstream-Indus River):
Based on the stream hydrology and morphology, the Indus River can be broadly
divided into three segments: (i) the upstream segment, from the Singi Khahad
spring down to Jinnah Barrage; (ii) the midstream segment, between Jinnah and
Guddu barrages; (iii) and the downstream segment, from Guddu Barrage to the
Arabian Sea. The upstream segment is largely a hilly catchment area; the
midstream segment is an upper floodplains area dominated by a braided pattern of
channels and tributary inflows; and the downstream segment is a lower floodplains
area and has a flat topography, a meandering channel pattern and deltas.
1.3 Problem Statement:
Pakistan is a typical example of a developing country where floods occur
frequently and efforts are made to establish an adequate management strategy.
Since independence, floods have always been a major concern for the country as it
has majorly failed to stop the menace of the inundation. Fluvial floods in the Indus
plain of Pakistan prove to be the most devastating.
Climate Change has also left no room to spare Pakistan and as with time the
country is going to bear the great chunk of climate change and more flash floods
are expected.
In order to address those disasters, it is indispensable to further strengthen the
flood management capacity in Pakistan including upgrading of the existing flood
forecasting systems along all rivers, improvement of the accuracy and reliability of
the forecasting systems with strategic enhancement of the ground based
hydrological observations network, update of the operation rules of flood
management facilities such as dams and breaching sections at barrages for better
flood control in order to save lives and properties of the vulnerable communities
throughout the country.
In order to improve in flood forecasting and flood routing of the Indus River
catchments RRI model is applied for identifying the flood extend as well and
identify the most prone district under flood condition.
1.4 RRI Briefing:

Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model is a two-dimensional model capable of
simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously (Sayama et al.,
2012, Sayama et al., 2015a, Sayama et al., 2015b). The model deals with slopes
and river channels separately. At a grid cell in which a river channel is located, the
model assumes that both slope and river are positioned within the same grid cell.
The channel is discretized as a single line along its centerline of the overlying
slope grid cell.
The flow on the slope grid cells is calculated with the 2D diffusive wave model,
while the channel flow is calculated with the 1D diffusive wave model. For better
representations of rainfall-runoff-inundation processes, the RRI model simulates
also lateral subsurface flow, vertical infiltration flow and surface flow. The lateral
subsurface flow, which is typically more important in mountainous regions, is
treated in terms of the discharge-hydraulic gradient relationship, which takes into
account both saturated subsurface and surface flows. On the other hand, the
vertical infiltration flow is estimated by using the Green-Ampt model. The flow
interaction between the river channel and slope is estimated based on different
overflowing formulae, depending on water-level and levee-height conditions.
Model Features
1) RRI is a 2D model simulating for rainfall-runoff and flood inundation
simultaneously.
2) It simulates flows on land and in river and their interactions at a river basin
scale.
3) It simulates lateral subsurface flow in mountainous areas and infiltration in
flat areas. (ICHARM)
1.5 Problems and Complications:
The can be various problems in this project proceeding. Because it’s a trial and
error method. Some of which care given below. But these problems have solution.
Depth of the river: Because during Flood, we can’t even go near the river so there
is no way to find the exact depth of the river during flood at every part of river.
May be at some bridges or at certain station we can find it. But depth does not
matter a lot during flood. Its width matter a lot.
RRI software usage: As this software has not been used much. So we have to
follow the manual for it. The best way to understand this Software is you learn
about it first. Which we are doing. Then Go for the usage with trial and error
method and go as close to the desirable result as we can.
The data: The only way to collect the data is from irrigation department .For the
correct result you need correct data. Now it depend upon the irrigation department,
which type of data they gave you. The data can be wrong because of either they did
not collect the data or they don’t want to give you. Which happened with us in the
early stage of our preparation, but now we are now comparatively stable.
1.6 Objectives:
The objectives of the project are:
1- Conduct rainfall-runoff and inundation simulation over upper Indus basin for
flood event of 2010.
2- To identify flood affected districts
3- To enumerate the effect of river embankment on stream flow discharge and
inundated flood water extent on both river catchments.( Thesis; Junaid
Siddique
4- To determine model ability to predict flood inundated area at various flood
stages as sensed by MODIS satellite imagery.
2- METHODOLOGY:
Topographical Dataset
Satellite Rainfall (HydroSHEDS)
Digital Elevation Flow Direction Flow

Observed
Model (DEM) (DIR) Accumulation
Gauged rainfall
(ACC)
Land cover
classification
Boundary (GLC-30m)
Conditions (qr) Parameter
RRI MODEL Classification
Soil
Initial Conditions Classification
(hs/hr) (FAO)
Inundated water River Discharge River Water

height on slope (qr) Level (hr)
(hs)
Observed Remote Sensing

Hydrograph Imagery
Validation (Simulated
hydrograph and Flood
inundation extent)
2.1: Input Rainfall Dataset:
Rainfall plays an important factor in RR simulation. In this project, we will use
satellite based hourly rainfall i.e. GSMap is used which is corrected by daily
ground gauged rainfall by simple real time correction function. GSMap NRT is the
satellite precipitation datasets having time resolution of 1 hour and spatial
resolution of 0.1 degrees (Tsujimoto et al., 2014)
The main advantage of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation near Real Time
data (GSMap/NRT) is the availability of maps approximately 4 hour after real time
observation ( Sayama et al, 2012). Thus, it is expected as good tool for flood
prediction and flood early warning system and management of water resource
especially in the region with lack of ground gauged rainfall data (Ushio et al.,
2009).
2.2: Topography:
Resolution of topographic dataset is key element in hydraulic modelling of flood
(Sanders, 2007), any error in topographic dataset leads to false hydraulic prediction
(Aronica et al., 1998; Finlayson and Montgomery, 2004; Wilson, 2004). In our
study, we will extract Flow Accumulation “.acc”, Flow Direction “.dir” and Digital
Elevation “.dem” from the HydroSHEDS dataset.
2.3: River Geometry:
2.3.1: River Threshold:
River Threshold defines flow accumulation value ( i.e. number of upstream cells)
to distinguish River grid cells or slope grid cells such that grid cells with more
defined threshold value is considered as river and value less than threshold is
considered as slope (Nastiti et al., 2015).
River Threshold depends on Flow accumulation value of important canals and
streams significantly contributing to main river network.
2.3.2: Coefficients of River Width and Depth:
River cross-section plays an important role in hydraulic modelling. In our case, due
to unavailability of surveyed dataset of river cross-section, simple regression
equations of river width and river depth are applied as follow;
Width = 𝐶𝑤 𝐴 𝑆𝑤
Depth = 𝐶𝑑 𝐴 𝑆𝑑
2.3.3 Land Cover:
Due to significance of the type of land cover in runoff generation, we will use
Global Land 30m satellite imagery for the extraction of the land cover of the
catchments under study. GlobaLand30 was developed by Ministry of Science and
Technology of Chin to produce a 30m GLC data product (GlobeLand30) and
consists of 30m multispectral images.
GlobeLand-30m dataset covers land area from 80’ N to 80’ S and consist of 10
land cover classes, namely, cultivated land, forest, grassland, shrub land, wetland,
water bodies, tundra, artificial surfaces, bare land, permanent snow and ice.
2.3.4 Boundary Condition:
In this software, boundary conditions (discharge) are defined at all hydraulic
structure situated across the river due to unavailability of operation rule curves
dataset or any operational relationship between inflow and outflow from the dam
or the barrage.
In the Upper Indus River, boundary conditions will be at upstream station of
Tarbela Dam and downstream station of Chashma Barrage.
2.3.5 Visualization:
In the end, we will visualize the data and
produce a hydrograph. Most probably the
hydrograph will coincide with the observed data
and if not trial and error method will continue
on the parameters of the river.
Once successful in producing the hydrograph,
we will reach the final stage of flood inundation
map which will then be used to understand the
region of flood effect and the depth of the flood
3-Work Progression:
Total Time Span: 16 - 20 Weeks
Work Division:
Junaid: Data collection
Irshad: Report and Proposal preparation
Shahaan: Cooperator in Software
Zarak: Software operation
Assistance: Engr. Amir Shehzad (BSc, MS, PhD [under-progress])

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Final Year Project Proposal

1.4 RRI Briefing:

Digital Elevation Flow Direction Flow

Inundated water River Discharge River Water

Observed Remote Sensing

Assistance: Engr. Amir Shehzad (BSc, MS, PhD [under-progress])

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