The document contains a quiz on quantitative forecasting methods and time series analysis. It includes 20 multiple choice questions covering topics such as exponential smoothing, forecast error calculation, time series patterns, moving averages, causal models, trend, seasonality, and stationary processes. The questions assess understanding of key concepts in quantitative forecasting and time series analysis.
The document contains a quiz on quantitative forecasting methods and time series analysis. It includes 20 multiple choice questions covering topics such as exponential smoothing, forecast error calculation, time series patterns, moving averages, causal models, trend, seasonality, and stationary processes. The questions assess understanding of key concepts in quantitative forecasting and time series analysis.
The document contains a quiz on quantitative forecasting methods and time series analysis. It includes 20 multiple choice questions covering topics such as exponential smoothing, forecast error calculation, time series patterns, moving averages, causal models, trend, seasonality, and stationary processes. The questions assess understanding of key concepts in quantitative forecasting and time series analysis.
The document contains a quiz on quantitative forecasting methods and time series analysis. It includes 20 multiple choice questions covering topics such as exponential smoothing, forecast error calculation, time series patterns, moving averages, causal models, trend, seasonality, and stationary processes. The questions assess understanding of key concepts in quantitative forecasting and time series analysis.
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Quiz 3
1.The exponential smoothing forecast for period t + 1 is a weighted average of the
a. forecast value in period t – 1 with weight α and the forecast for period t with weight 1 – α.
b. actual value in period t with weight α and the forecast for period t with weight 1 – α.
c. actual value in period t + 1 with weight α and the forecast for period t with weight 1 – α.
d. forecast value in period t with weight α and the actual value for period t with weight 1 – α.
2.If the forecasted value of the time series variable for period 2 is 22.5 and the actual value observed for period 2 is 25, what is the forecast error in period 2?
a. 3
b. 2
c. –2.5
d. 2.5
3.Which of the following is not true of quantitative forecasting methods?
a. The information can be quantified.
b. It is reasonable to assume that past is prologue (i.e., that the pattern of the past will continue into the future).
c. It can be used when past information about the variable being forecast is available.
d. It involves the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts.
The moving averages method refers to a forecasting method that
a. relates a time series to other variables that are believed to explain or cause its behavior.
b. uses regression relationship based on past time series values to predict the future time series values.
c. is used when considerable trend, cyclical, or seasonal effects are present.
d. uses the average of the most recent data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period.
__________ uses a weighted average of past time series values as the forecast. a. The qualitative method
b. Exponential smoothing c. Correlation analysis
d. The causal model
__________ is the amount by which the predicted value differs from the observed value of the time series variable.
a. Mean forecast error
b. Smoothing constant
c. Mean absolute error
d. Forecast error
A time series plot of a period of time (in weeks) versus sales (in 1,000's of gallons) is shown below. Which of the following data patterns best describes the scenario shown?
a. Time series with a linear trend pattern
b. Time series with no pattern
c. Time series with a horizontal pattern
d. Time series with a nonlinear trend pattern
Demand for a product and the forecasting department's forecast (naÏve model) for a product are shown below. Compute the mean absolute error.
Period Actual Demand Forecasted Demand
1 12 -- 2 15 12
3 14 15
4 18 16
a. 1
b. 2.5
c. 1.5
d. 2
In the moving averages method, the order k determines the
a. number of samples in each unit time period.
b. compensation for forecasting error.
c. error tolerance.
d. number of time series values under consideration.
Causal models a. use the average of the most recent data values in the time series as the forecast for the next period.
b. occur whenever all the independent variables are previous values of the same time series.
c. relate a time series to other variables that are believed to explain or cause its behavior.
d. provide evidence of a causal relationship between an independent variable and the variable to be forecast.
Trend refers to a. the short-run shift or movement in the time series observable for some specific period of time.
b. the outcome of a random experiment.
c. the long-run shift or movement in the time series observable over several periods of time.
d. the recurring patterns observed over successive periods of time.
A forecast is defined as a(n)
a. set of observations on a variable measured at successive points in time. b. prediction of future values of a time series.
c. outcome of a random experiment.
d. quantitative method used when historical data on the variable of interest are either unavailable or not applicable.
Which of the following is not true of a stationary time series?
a. The variability is constant over time.
b. The time series plot is a straight line.
c. The statistical properties are independent of time.
d. The process generating the data has a constant mean.
The moving averages and exponential smoothing methods are appropriate for a time series exhibiting a. trends.
b. a cyclical pattern.
c. a horizontal pattern.
d. seasonal effects.
Forecast error a. cannot be zero.
b. is associated with measuring forecast accuracy.
c. takes a positive value when the forecast is too high.
d. cannot be negative.
Which of the following is not present in a time series?
a. Operational variations
b. Trend
c. Seasonality
d. Cycles A time series that shows a recurring pattern over one year or less is said to follow a a. cyclical pattern.
b. horizontal pattern.
c. seasonal pattern.
d. stationary pattern. A time series with a seasonal pattern can be modeled by treating the season as a
