Exercise 6 Uncertainty

Microeconomic Theory II
Exercise 6: Uncertainty
1. Willy owns a small chocolate factory, located close to a river that occasionally floods
in the spring, with disastrous consequences. Next summer, Willy plans to sell the factory
and retire. The only income he will have is the proceeds of the sale of his factory. If there
is no flood, the factory will be worth $500,000. If there is a flood, then what is left of the
factory will be worth only $50,000. Willy can buy flood insurance at a cost of $.10 for
each $1 worth of coverage. Willy thinks that the probability that there will be a flood this
spring is 1/10. Let c F denote the contingent commodity dollars if there is a flood and
c NF denote dollars if there is no flood. Willy’s von Neumann-Morgenstern utility
function is U( c F , c NF ) = 0.1 c F  0.9 c NF .
(a) If he buys no insurance, then in each contingency, Willy’s consumption will equal the
value of his factory, so Willy’s contingent commodity bundle will be (c F , c NF ) 
_____________
(b) To buy insurance that pays him $x in case of a flood, Willy must pay an insurance
premium of 0.1x. (The insurance premium must be paid whether or not there is a flood.)
If Willy insures for $x, then if there is a flood, he gets $x in insurance benefits. Suppose
that Willy has contracted for insurance that pays him $x in the event of a flood. Then after
paying his insurance premium, he will be able to consume c F = ___________ If Willy
has this amount of insurance and there is no flood, then he will be able to consume c NF
=____________
(c) You can eliminate x from the two equations for c F and c NF that you found above.
This gives you a budget equation for Willy. Of course there are many equivalent ways of
writing the same budget equation, since multiplying both sides of a budget equation by a
positive constant yields an equivalent budget equation. The form of the budget equation
in which the “price” of c NF is 1 can be written as 0.9c NF +_____ c F = __________
(d) Willy’s marginal rate of substitution between the two contingent commodities,
dollars if there is no flood and dollars if there is a flood, is MRS (c F , c NF ) 
___________. To find his optimal bundle of contingent commodities, you must set this
marginal rate of substitution equal to the number =________. Solving this equation, you
find that Willy will choose to consume the two contingent commodities in the ratio
c NF
 _____ .
cF
(e) Since you know the ratio in which he will consume c F and c NF , and you know his
budget equation, you can solve for his optimal consumption bundle, which is
(c F , c NF )  _________. Willy will buy an insurance policy that will pay him_______if
there is a flood. The amount of insurance premium that he will have to pay is_______.
2. Clarence Bunsen is an expected utility maximizer. His preferences among contingent

commodity bundles are represented by the expected utility function
u (c1 , c 2 ,  1 ,  2 )   1 c1   2 c 2 .
Clarence’s friend, Hjalmer Ingqvist, has offered to bet him $1,000 on the outcome of the
toss of a coin. That is, if the coin comes up heads, Clarence must pay Hjalmer $1,000 and
if the coin comes up tails, Hjalmer must pay Clarence $1,000. The coin is a fair coin, so
that the probability of heads and the probability of tails are both 1/2. If he doesn’t accept
the bet, Clarence will have $10,000 with certainty. In the privacy of his car dealership
office over at Bunsen Motors, Clarence is making his decision.
(Clarence uses the pocket calculator that his son, Elmer, gave him last Christmas. You
will find that it will be helpful for you to use a calculator too.) Let Event 1 be “coin
comes up heads” and let Event 2 be “coin comes up tails.”
(a) If Clarence accepts the bet, then in Event 1, he will have _______ dollars and in
Event 2, he will have ________ dollars.
(b) Since the probability of each event is 1/2, Clarence’s expected utility for a gamble in
which he gets c1 in Event 1 and c2 in Event 2 can be described by the formula
_________. Therefore Clarence’s expected utility if he accepts the bet with Hjalmer will
be ________.
(c) If Clarence decides not to bet, then in Event 1, he will have _______ dollars and in
Event 2, he will have _______ dollars. Therefore if he doesn’t bet, his expected utility
will be ______.
(d) Having calculated his expected utility if he bets and if he does not bet, Clarence
determines which is higher and makes his decision accordingly. Does Clarence take the
bet? ______.
3. It is a slow day at Bunsen Motors, so since he has his calculator warmed up, Clarence
Bunsen (whose preferences toward risk were described in the last problem) decides to
study his expected utility function more closely.
(a) Clarence first thinks about really big gambles. What if he bet his entire $10,000 on the
toss of a coin, where he loses if heads and wins if tails? Then if the coin came up heads,
he would have 0 dollars and if it came up tails, he would have $20,000. His expected
utility if he took the bet would be _______, while his expected utility if he didn’t take the
bet would be ________. Therefore he concludes that he would not take such a bet.
(b) Clarence then thinks, “Well, of course, I wouldn’t want to take a chance on losing all
of my money on just an ordinary bet. But, what if somebody offered me a really good
deal. Suppose I had a chance to bet where if a fair coin came up heads, I lost my $10,000,
but if it came up tails, I would win $50,000. Would I take the bet? If I took the bet, my
expected utility would be ______. If I didn’t take the bet, my expected utility would be
______. Therefore I should _______ the bet.”
(c) Clarence later asks himself, “If I make a bet where I lose my $10,000 if the coin
comes up heads, what is the smallest amount that I would have to win in the event of tails
in order to make the bet a good one for me to take?” After some trial and error, Clarence
found the answer. You, too, might want to find the answer by trial and error, but it is
easier to find the answer by solving an equation. On the left side of your equation, you
would write down Clarence’s utility if he doesn’t bet. On the right side of the equation,
you write down an expression for Clarence’s utility if he makes a bet such that he is left
with zero consumption in Event 1 and x in Event 2. Solve this equation for x. The answer
to Clarence’s question is where x = 10, 000. The equation that you should write is
___________. The solution is x = __________.
(d) Your answer to the last part gives you two points on Clarence’s indifference curve
between the contingent commodities, money in Event 1 and money in Event 2. (Poor
Clarence has never heard of indifference curves or contingent commodities, so you will
have to work this part for him, while he heads over to the Chatterbox Cafe for morning
coffee.) One of these points is where money in both events is $10,000. Label this point A
on the graph. The other is where money in Event 1 is zero and money in Event 2
is_______. On the graph, label this point B.
(e) You can quickly find a third point on this indifference curve. The coin is a fair coin,
and Clarence cares whether heads or tails turn up only because that determines his prize.
Therefore Clarence will be indifferent between two gambles that are the same except that
the assignment of prizes to outcomes are reversed. In this example, Clarence will be
indifferent between point B on the graph and a point in which he gets zero if Event 2
happens and ________ if Event 1 happens. Find this point on the graph and label it C.
(f) Another gamble that is on the same indifference curve for Clarence as not gambling at
all is the gamble where he loses $5,000 if heads turn up and where he wins ________
dollars if tails turn up. (Hint: To solve this problem, put the utility of not betting on the
left side of an equation and on the right side of the equation, put the utility of having
$10, 000 −$5, 000 in Event 1 and $10, 000 +x in Event 2. Then solve the resulting
equation for x.). Plot this point and label it D. Now sketch in the entire indifference curve
through the points that you have labeled.

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Microeconomic Theory II

2. Clarence Bunsen is an expected utility maximizer. His preferences among contingent

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