CH 6 13
CH 6 13
CH 6 13
Chapter 6
6.1
Goals of Chapter 6
6.3
6.5
6.8
Quotations for Treasury Bonds
in the U.S.
If the quoted price is 95.2344 on July 3, and the interest of $4
is for the period between Mar. 1 and Sept. 1
Cash price (dirty price) = $95.2344 + $2.6957 = $97.9301
Note that the theoretical value for the cash price (dirty price)
is the sum of the PVs of all future cash flows
– The theoretical cash price is calculated first, and next the
theoretical clean price is obtained by deducting the accrued
interest
Why to distinguish clean and dirty prices?
– Clean prices are more stable over time than dirty prices–when
clean prices change, it usually reflects an economic reason, e.g.,
a change in interest rates or in the bond issuer's credit quality
– Dirty prices, in contrast, change day to day depending on where
the current date is in relation to the coupon payment dates, in
addition to any economic reasons 6.9
6.11
6.16
Conversion Factor (轉換因子)
6.17
6.24
Eurodollar Futures (歐洲美元期貨)
0 T T 0.25
6.25
6.32
Forward Rates and Eurodollar
Futures
A “convexity adjustment” often made is
Forward rate = Futures rate – 𝜎 𝑇 𝑇 ,
where 𝑇 is the time to maturity of the futures
contract, 𝑇 is the time to maturity of the rate
underlying the futures contract (90 days later
than 𝑇 ) and 𝜎 is the standard deviation of
the short-term interest rate changes per year
(typically 𝜎 is about 1.2%)
※ Note that the above formula is for rates with continuous
compounding
6.33
6.35
6.36
Duration (存續期間)
Duration (存續期間)
/
Prove that 𝐷 = − , where 𝐷 ≡ ∑ 𝑡
/
∵ 𝐵 = ∑ 𝑐 𝑒 ∴− =− = − ∑ 𝑐 𝑒 (−𝑡 )
= ∑ 𝑐 𝑒 𝑡 = ∑ 𝑡 =𝐷
/ /
※ 𝐷=− can be approximated by 𝐷 ≈ − , which
indicates that the duration can measure the interest rate
risk–the percentage change in bond price due to a small
change in yield
The negative sign implies the inverse relationship between the
changes in bond prices and yields
6.38
Duration (存續期間)
/
Rewrite 𝐷 ≈ − as Δ𝐵 ≈ −𝐵𝐷Δ𝑦, based upon which
we can estimate the change in the bond price if the
duration is known and the change in its yield is estimated
Time Cash Present Value Weight Time ×
(years) flow ($) (y = 0.12) Weight
0.5 5 4.709 0.050 0.025
1.0 5 4.435 0.047 0.047
1.5 5 4.176 0.044 0.066
2.0 5 3.933 0.042 0.083
2.5 5 3.704 0.039 0.098
3.0 105 73.256 0.778 2.333
Total 94.213 1 2.653
Duration (存續期間)
Duration (存續期間)
/ /( / )
Prove that − = 𝐷, where 𝐷 ≡ ∑ 𝑡
/
∵ 𝐵 = ∑
( / )
/
∴− = − ∑ −𝑚𝑡 ( )
/
= ∑ 𝑡 = ∑ 𝑡
/ / /
/ /
= ∑ 𝑡 = 𝐷 ≡ 𝐷∗
/ /
※ 𝐷 is known as the modified duration 𝐷 ∗, which can measure
/
the IR risk more precisely than the duration 𝐷
※ The difference between 𝐷 ∗ and 𝐷 decreases with the
compounding frequency, and under the continuous compounding,
i.e., 𝑚 → ∞, the difference disappears (see Slide 6.38) 6.42
Duration (存續期間)
※ The above figure implies that for one small change in yield, Δ𝑦 ,
the percentage change in the bond prices of P and Q are
almost the same, which inspires the duration-based hedging 6.43
Duration Matching
Notations
– 𝑉 : Contract price for an interest rate futures contract
– 𝐷 : Duration of the asset underlying futures at the maturity
of the futures contract (do not calculate the duration of a
futures contract itself)
– 𝑃: Value of the portfolio being hedged at the maturity of
the hedge (assumed to be the same as the portfolio value
today)
– 𝐷 : Duration of the portfolio at the maturity of the hedge
( )
Duration-based hedge ratio ( + = 0)
𝑁∗ = interest rate futures should be SHORTED
(due to = −𝑃𝐷 and = −𝑉 𝐷 ) 6.45
6.47
Swaps
Chapter 7
7.54
Goals of Chapter 7
7.56
Definition of Swaps
※ For each reference period, the 6-month LIBOR in the beginning of the
period determine the payment amount at the end of the period
– Therefore, there is no uncertainty about the first CF exchange
※ The principal is also known as the notional principal (名義本金或名目
本金), or just the notional
– Only net CFs change hands not necessary to exchange the principal at
any time point 7.59
※ If the principal were exchanged at the end of the life of the swap, the
nature (or said the net CFs) of the deal would not be changed in any way
※ An IR swap can be regarded as the exchange of a fixed-rate bond (with
the CFs in the 4th column) for a floating-rate bond (with the CFs in the
3rd column)
※ This characteristic helps to evaluate IR swaps (introduced later) 7.60
Interest Rate Swap
7.61
5% 4.7%
LIBOR – 0.2% Intel MS
LIBOR
The F.I. has two separate IR swaps and it has to honor the
both contracts even if Intel or MS defaults
In most cases, Intel and MS do not even know whether the
F.I. has entered into an offsetting swap with another firm
In OTC markets for swaps, there are many F.I.’s acting as
market markers (or said dealers) and always preparing to
trade IR swaps without having an offsetting swap
– They can hedge their unoffset swap positions with Treasury
bonds, FRAs, or other IR derivatives 7.65
– Suppose AAA and BBB cannot deal directly and a F.I. is involved
The net interest rate for AAA Corp. is LIBOR – 0.33%, which is by
0.23% lower than LIBOR – 0.1% if it borrows at a floating rate directly
The net interest rate for BBB Corp. is 4.97%, which is by 0.23% lower
than 5.2% if it borrows at a fixed rate directly
The spread earned by the F.I. is 0.04%
– In the both cases, the total gains of all participants is 0.5% , which
equals (1.2% – 0.7%), where 1.2% (0.7%) is the difference
between the fixed (floating) borrowing IRs for AAA and BBB Corp. 7.69
Valuation of IR Swaps
7.74
Valuation of IR Swaps
Valuation of IR Swaps
Price Bfl (with the face value to be $100) with 1.5 years to
maturity in one possible scenario for the 6-month LIBOR
$2 $100
$100 ( )
1 4% 0.5
$4 $100 $4 $102
$100 ( )
1 8% 0.5 1 8% 0.5 (1 8% 0.5 )((1 4% 0.5)
$3 $100 $3 $4 $102
$100 ( )
1 6% 0.5 1 6% 0.5 (1 6% 0.5)(1 8% 0.5) (1 6% 0.5)(1 8% 0.5 )(1 4% 0.5)
※ Note that in any scenario for LIBOR and for different life time of
bonds, the Bfl is worth its par value on the issue date and on each
date immediately after the coupon payment date 7.76
Valuation of IR Swaps
Value =
L+k*
0 t t*
∗
※ A Bfl is worth the PV of (𝐿 + 𝑘 ∗ ) at 𝑡, i.e., 𝐿 + 𝑘 ∗ 𝑒 ( ),
∗
where 𝐿 + 𝑘 is the value of the Bfl on the next payment date
and 𝑟 is the continuously compounding zero rate corresponding
to the time to maturity of (𝑡 ∗ − 𝑡) 7.77
Valuation of IR Swaps
Valuation of IR Swaps
Valuation of IR Swaps
Valuation of IR Swaps
Suppose the 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month OIS zero rates are 3%,
3.5%, 4%, and 4.5% with continuous compounding
The 1.25-year OIS zero rate 𝑅 is 3.9798% by solving
% .
1𝑒 + 1𝑒 . % . + 1𝑒 % . + 1𝑒 . % + 101𝑒 .
= 100
– For a 𝑇 being so long such that the quotes of OIS
rates are not available or unreliable, e.g., 𝑇 > 5 years
Note that LIBOR-based IR swaps are traded for longer
maturities than OIS
Assume the (LIBOR – OIS) spread is constant and as it is for
the longest OIS maturity for which there is reliable data, e.g.,
for the 5-year time point, the corresponding (LIBOR – OIS)
zero-rate spread is 20 basis points
Use the LIBOR zero curve minus a constant (LIBOR – OIS)
spread to derive the OIS rate zero curve 7.91
7.92
Currency Swap
Currency Swap
Comparative Advantage
Arguments for Currency Swaps
Comparative Advantage
Arguments for Currency Swaps
– Different ways to arrange the currency swaps
1. QA bears some foreign exchange risk
USD 5.0% USD 5.2% AUD 8.0%
USD 5.0% QA
GE F.I.
AUD 6.9% AUD 6.9%
7.10
0
Valuation of Currency Swaps
, .
※𝑉 =𝑆 𝐵 −𝐵 = − 9.6439 = 1.543 (million $)
7.10
1
– Take the first exchange in the currency swap for example: it can
be regarded as a FX forward to purchase ¥60 million with $0.8
million
– Value of the first exchange = 𝑒 % ¥60 𝐸 𝑆 − $0.8
= 𝑒 % ¥60 0.009557 − $0.8
= −0.2071 (million $)
Time Dollar CF Yen CF Expected future Yen CF Net CF PV of net
(yr) (mil. $) (mil. Yen) FX rate = in dollar (mil. $) CF (mil. $)
forward FX rate (mil. $) (discounted
at 9%)
1 –0.8 60 0.009557 0.5734 –0.2266 –0.2071
2 –0.8 60 0.010047 0.6028 –0.1972 –0.1647
3 –0.8 60 0.010562 0.6337 –0.1663 –0.1269
3 –10 1,200 0.010562 12.6746 +2.6746 +2.0417
Total +1.5430
7.10
4
7.3 Credit Risk of Swaps
7.10
5
Credit Risk
Credit Risk
※ When the default event occurs, the protection seller should compensate the
protection buyer any losses on principal in the default event
※ For the protection buyer, CDS provides insurance against the possibility that
a borrower (the reference entity (參考實體)) might not pay
※ For the protection seller, CDS provides a way to earn profits by bearing
default risk without ever holding credit instruments physically 7.10
9
7.11
0
Other Types of Swaps
Variations on IR swaps
– The tenors (i.e., the payment frequency) for the
floating- and fixed-rate sides could be different
Quarterly LIBOR vs. semiannual fixed rate payments
– Other floating rates, like the commercial paper rate,
could be used
– Amortizing (攤銷) (or step up) swaps
The principal amount reduces (or increases) in a
predetermined way
– Deferred (延遲) swaps
Also known as the forward-start swap, where the parties
do not begin to exchange interest payments until some
future date 7.11
1
– Differential Swaps
For example, for an amount of notional principal in USD,
exchange LIBOR in USD with LIBOR in yen
Note that theoretically the LIBOR in yen should be applied
to the principal in yen rather than the principal in USD
It is also known as quanto swap (匯率保障交換)
Other types of swaps
– Equity swaps
Exchange the total return (dividends plus capital gains)
realized on an equity index for either a fixed or a floating IR
Used by portfolio managers to purchase a series of equity
index returns with a fixed or floating IR
Useful to escape from the capital controls of some nations 7.11
5
– Commodity swaps
An agreement where a floating (or market or spot) price
based on an underlying commodity is exchanged for a
fixed price for a following period
It can be decomposed into a series of forward contracts on
a commodity with different maturity dates and identical
delivery price
– Volatility swaps
Volatility is defined as the standard deviation of the rates of
return of the underlying asset price in a reference period
At the end of each reference period, one side pays
principal × pre-agreed volatility (e.g., 20%), and the other
side pays principal × the actual volatilities (e.g., 23%) in
the past reference period 7.11
6
Mechanics of Options
Markets
Chapter 9
9.11
7
Goals of Chapter 9
9.11
9
Types of Options
Option Positions
20
10 Terminal
70 80 90 100 stock price 𝑆 ($)
0
45°
–5 110 120 130
※ Note that as long as 𝑆 is higher (lower) than the strike price, the call
holder should (should not) exercise this option
※ Since the cost to acquire the call option is $5, the call holder earn a
positive profit when 𝑆 is higher than (strike price + $5) 9.12
3
–20
–30
※ When 𝑆 is lower than the strike price, the call holder gives up his right and
thus the option writer can earn the whole $5 of option price
※ If this call is exercised, the maximum losses of the call writer are unlimited
※ The call writer’s profit or loss is the negative of that for the call holder 9.12
4
Profit of Longing a Put
20
10 Terminal
stock price 𝑆 ($)
0
40 50 60 70 80 90 100
45°
–7
※ Note that as long as 𝑆 is lower (higher) than the strike price, the put
holder should (should not) exercise this option
※ Since the cost to acquire the put option is $7, the put holder earn a
positive profit when 𝑆 is lower than (strike price – $7) 9.12
5
7 °
Terminal
40 50 60 45 stock price 𝑆 ($)
0
70 80 90 100
–10
–20
–30
※ The put writer’s profit or loss is the negative of that for the put holder
※ The put writer’s profit declines when the stock price falls below the strike price
($70), and the breakeven point for the put writer is $63 (=$70 – $7) 9.12
6
Payoff Functions of European
Options
– Payoff is the final payment at maturity. The
deduction of the option price is not necessary
Payoff of longing a call Payoff of longing a put
ST ST
K K
※ Note the opposite
max(𝑆 − 𝐾, 0) max(𝐾 − 𝑆 , 0) relationship
between the payoff
Payoff of shorting a call functions of the
Payoff of shorting a put option holder and
writer
K K
ST ST
−max(𝑆 − 𝐾, 0)
−max(𝐾 − 𝑆 , 0) 9.12
7
Types of Options
Types of Options
9.13
2
Trading Options on Exchanges
– Strike price
For each maturity, there is a series of strike prices spaced
$2.5 (for stock prices between $5 and $25), $5 (for stock
prices between $25 and $200), or $10 (for stock prices
above $200) apart
When options with a new expiration month debuts (首次出
現), the two or three strike prices closest to the current
stock price are selected as the strike prices for the option
contracts by the exchange
– If the stock price moves outside the range, a new strike price is
introduced to extend the range to cover the stock price
– Suppose the stock price is $82, the initial strike prices for
options may be $80, $85, $90. If the stock price rises above
$90 (declines below $80), the option with the strike price of $95
($75) is initiated 9.13
5
– European or American
In Taiwan, index option and stock options are European-
style options, but warrants (introduced later) in Taiwan are
American-style options
※ Some terminologies
Option class
– All options of the same type (either calls or puts) are referred to
as an option class
Option series
– Consist of all the options of a given class with the same
expiration date and strike price
– In other words, an option series refers to a particular contract
that is traded
9.13
6
Trading Options on Exchanges
9.13
7
Moneyness (價值狀況)
– In the money (ITM) (價內): Options are referred to as in the
money if they have positive intrinsic values, i.e., 𝑆 > 𝐾 for
calls and 𝑆 < 𝐾 for puts
– Out of the money (OTM) (價外): Options are referred to as
out of the money if they have zero intrinsic value, i.e., 𝑆 <
𝐾 for calls and 𝑆 > 𝐾 for puts
– At the money (ATM) (價平): 𝑆 = 𝐾 for both calls and puts
※ An ITM option will always be exercised on the expiration
date (𝑇), i.e., if 𝑆 > 𝐾 for calls or 𝑆 < 𝐾 for puts, those
options will always be exercised
9.13
8
Trading Options on Exchanges
9.14
1
9.14
4
Trading Options on Exchanges
Margins (保證金)
– In the U.S., when stock shares are purchased, an
investor can either pay cash or borrow using a
margin account (this is known as buying on margin)
– For options, buying on margin is not always
allowed
When options with maturities less than 9 months, the
option price must be paid in full
For options with maturities longer than 9 months, investors
can buy on margin, borrowing up to 25% of the option price
※ The limit of buying on margin is because options already
contain substantial leverage and it is inappropriate to
further raise this leverage with buying on margin 9.14
6
Trading Options on Exchanges
9.15
0
Trading Options on Exchanges
9.15
3
9.15
8
Warrants, ESOs, and CBs
9.15
9
Properties of Stock
Options
Chapter 10
10.1
60
Goals of Chapter 10
10.1
62
Notation
6 6
4 4
2 2
Dividends, D Dividends, D
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10
10.1
72
Upper and Lower Bounds for
Option Prices
Some assumptions
– There are no transactions costs
– The tax rate issue is ignored in this chapter
However, all results in this chapter hold when all
trading profits (net of trading losses) are subject
to the same tax rate
– Borrowing and lending are always possible
at the risk-free interest rate
– There is no dividends payment during the
option life
In the last section of this chapter, this constraint
will be released 10.1
73
10.17
7
10.17
9
10.1
80
Put-Call Parity
Portfolio C 𝑺𝑻 > 𝑲 𝑺𝑻 ≤ 𝑲
Put option 0 𝐾−𝑆
1 share of stock 𝑆 𝑆
Total 𝑆 𝐾
10.1
81
Put-Call Parity
Put-Call Parity
10.1
84
10.4 Optimal Early Exercise
Decision (最佳提早履約
決策)
10.18
5
Early Exercise
𝑆
𝐾𝑒
10.1
87
Early Exercise
10.1
90
Early Exercise
𝑆 𝑆
𝐾𝑒 𝐾𝑒 𝐾
※ Both the upper and lower bounds of American puts are higher than those
of European puts 10.19
1
max(𝐾 − 𝑆 , 0)
※ Since the lower bound for European
puts is max(𝐾𝑒 − 𝑆 , 0), it is
possible that 𝑝 < max(𝐾 − 𝑆 , 0)
max(𝐾𝑒 − 𝑆 , 0)
10.19
3
11.1
97
Goals of Chapter 11
11.1
99
Principal-Protected Notes
11.2
02
Positions in a Call and The
Underlying Asset
(a) (b)
Profit Profit
K ST ST
※ Short a call and long a stock ※ Buy a call and short a stock
※ This strategy is known as writing a ※ The inverse of writing a covered
“covered call” (掩護性買權) call
※ This strategy can cover (or protect) the ※ Similar to the profit of longing a
risk of a sharp rise in the stock price for put (compared with Slide 9.9)
the call writer
※ This is because the call writer can sell
the stock to the call holder for 𝐾 if the
call is exercised at maturity
※ Similar to the profit of shorting a put
(compared with Slide 9.10) 11.2
03
K
ST K ST
※ Long a put and long a stock ※ Sell a put and short a stock
※ This strategy is known as a “protective ※ The inverse of a protective put
put” (保護性賣權) ※ Similar to the profit of shorting a
※ This strategy can cover (or protect) the call (compared with Slide 9.8)
stock position from the risk of the
decline in the stock price
※ The put holder can eliminate the
downside risk of the stock position by
exercising the put to sell the stock at 𝐾
※ Similar to the profit of longing a call
(compared with Slide 9.7) 11.2
04
Positions in a Option and The
Underlying Asset
11.2
06
Bull Spread (牛市價差) Using
Calls withProfitThe Same T
ST
K1 K2
K1 K2
ST
K1 K2
ST
ST
K1 K2
K1 K2 K3
ST
K1 K2 K3
ST
※ The payoff of the butterfly put spread is identical to the payoff of the butterfly call
spread
11.2
18
Calendar Spread (日曆價差) Using
Calls
Profit
𝑆
K
※ A calendar spread can be created by selling a call option with a certain strike
price and buying a longer-maturity call option with the same 𝐾, i.e., 𝑐 𝐾, 𝑇 −
𝑐(𝐾, 𝑇 ) for 𝑇 > 𝑇
※ Since 𝑇 > 𝑇 , it is general that 𝑐 𝐾, 𝑇 > 𝑐(𝐾, 𝑇 ) and thus there is a initial cost
to construct a calendar spread
※ The above figure shows the profit function at 𝑇 (explained on the next slide),
which is similar to the payoff of a butterfly spread
– The investors makes a profit if the stock price at 𝑇 is close to 𝐾, but a loss is incurred
when the stock price is significantly higher or lower than the strike price
– The advantage of the calendar spread over the butterfly spread is its lower transaction
costs 11.2
19
𝑆
K
※ A calendar spread can also be created by selling a put option with a certain
strike price and buying a longer-maturity put option with the same 𝐾, i.e.,
𝑝 𝐾, 𝑇 − 𝑝(𝐾, 𝑇 )
※ Since 𝑇 > 𝑇 , it is general that 𝑝 𝐾, 𝑇 > 𝑝(𝐾, 𝑇 ) and thus there is a initial cost
to construct a calendar spread
11.2
21
11.2
23
ST
K
K K ST
ST
Strip Strap
K1 K2
ST
11.2
27
Introduction to
Binomial Trees
Chapter 12
12.2
28
Goals of Chapter 12
12.2
29
12.2
30
One-Period Binomial Tree Model
𝑆 = 22
𝑆 = 20
𝑆 = 18
12.2
32
One-Period Binomial Tree Model
22D – 1
18D
12.2
36
Generalization of One-Period
Binomial Tree Model
Consider any derivative 𝑓 lasting for time T
and its payoff is dependent on a stock
𝑆 =𝑆 𝑢
𝑓
𝑆
𝑓 𝑆 =𝑆 𝑑
𝑓
– Assume that the possible stock price at 𝑇 are
𝑆 = 𝑆𝑢 and 𝑆 = 𝑆𝑑, where 𝑢 and 𝑑 are
constant multiplication factors for the upper and
lower branches
– 𝑓 and 𝑓 are payoffs of the derivative 𝑓
corresponding to the upper and lower branches 12.2
37
Generalization of One-Period
Binomial Tree Model
– Construct Portfolio P that longs D shares and
shorts 1 derivative. The payoffs of Portfolio P are
𝑆𝑢Δ − 𝑓
𝑆𝑑Δ − 𝑓
– Portfolio P is riskless if 𝑆𝑢Δ − 𝑓 = 𝑆𝑑Δ − 𝑓 and
thus
𝑓 −𝑓
Δ=
𝑆𝑢 − 𝑆𝑑
※Recall that in the prior numerical example, 𝑆 = 20, 𝑢 =
1.1, 𝑑 = 0.9, 𝑓 = 1, and 𝑓 = 0, so the solution of Δ for
generating a riskless portfolio is 0.25 12.2
38
Generalization of One-Period
Binomial Tree Model
– Value of Portfolio P at time T is 𝑆𝑢Δ − 𝑓 (or
equivalently 𝑆𝑑Δ − 𝑓 )
– Value of Portfolio P today is thus (𝑆𝑢Δ − 𝑓 )𝑒
– The initial investment (or the cost) for Portfolio P is
𝑆Δ − 𝑓
– Hence 𝑓 = 𝑆Δ − (𝑆𝑢Δ − 𝑓 )𝑒
– Substituting Δ for in the above equation,
we obtain
𝑓=𝑒 [𝑝 𝑓 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑓 ],
where 𝑝 =
12.2
39
12.2
40
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
Risk-averse (風險趨避), risk-neutral (風險中立),
and risk-loving (風險愛好) behaviors
– A game of flipping a coin
For risk-averse investors, they accept a risky game if its
expected payoff is higher than the payoff of the riskless
game by a required amount which can compensate
investors for the risk they bear
– That is, risk-averse investors requires compensation for risk
– For different investors, they have different tolerance for risk,
i.e., they require different expected payoff to accept the same
risky game
12.2
41
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
For risk-neutral investors, they accept a risky game even if
its expected payoff equals the payoff of the riskless game
– That is, they care about only the levels of the (expected)
payoffs
– In other words, they require no compensation for risk
For risk-loving investors, they accept a risky game (enjoy
the feeling of gamble) even if its expected payoff is lower
than the payoff of the riskless game
– That is, they would like to sacrifice some benefit for entering a
risky game
– We do not discuss risk-loving behavior in this chapter
12.2
42
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
– In a risk-averse financial market, securities with
higher degree of risk need to offer higher expected
returns
So, our real world is a risk averse world, i.e., most
investors are risk averse and require compensation for
the risk they tolerate
– In a risk-neutral financial market (every trader is
risk neutral), the expected returns of all securities
equal the risk free rate regardless of their degrees
of risk
That is, even for high-risk-level derivatives, their expected
returns equal the risk free rate in the risk-neutral world
The risk-neutral market only exists in our imagination
12.2
43
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
Interpret 𝑝 in 𝑓 = 𝑒 [𝑝𝑓 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑓 ] as a
probability in the risk-neutral world
– If the expected return of the stock price is 𝜇 in the
real world (a risk averse world), the expected stock
price at the end of the period is 𝐸 𝑆 = 𝑆𝑒
𝑆𝑢
𝑆𝑑
𝑒 −𝑑
𝑝∗ 𝑆𝑢 + 1 − 𝑝∗ 𝑆𝑑 = 𝑆𝑒 ⇒ 𝑝∗ =
𝑢−𝑑 12.2
44
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
– Comparing with 𝑝 = , it is natural to interpret 𝑝
and 1 − 𝑝 as probabilities of upward and downward
movements in the risk-neutral world
This is because that the expected return of any security in
the risk-neutral world is the risk free rate
– The formula 𝑓 = 𝑒 [𝑝𝑓 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑓 ] is consistent
with the general rule to price derivatives
Note that in the risk-neutral world, [𝑝𝑓 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑓 ] is the
expected payoff of a derivative and 𝑒 is the correct
discount factor to derive the PV today
The complete version of the general derivative pricing
method is that any derivative can be priced as the PV of its
expected payoff in the risk-neutral world 12.2
45
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
Risk-neutral valuation relationship (RNVR)
– It states that any derivative can be priced with the
general derivative pricing rule as if it and its
underlying asset were in the risk-neutral world
– Since the expected returns of both the derivative
and its underlying asset are the risk free rate
The probability of the upward movement in the prices of
the underlying asset is 𝑝 =
The discount rate for the expected payoff of the
derivative is also 𝑟
※When we are evaluating an option on a stock, the
expected return on the underlying stock, 𝜇, is irrelevant
12.2
46
Risk-Neutral Valuation
Relationship (風險中立評價關係)
Revisit the original numerical example in the
risk-neutral world
𝑆𝑢 = 22
𝑓 =1
𝑆 = 20
𝑓=?
𝑆𝑑 = 18
𝑓 =0
% . .
– Calculate 𝑝 = = = 0.6523
. .
– Calculate the option value according to the RNVR
𝑒 % . 0.6523 1 + 1 − 0.6523 0 = 0.633
12.2
47
12.2
48
Two-Period Binomial Tree Model
24.2
22 ※ Note the recombined
feature can limit the
growth of the number of
20 19.8
nodes on the binomial
tree in a acceptable
18 manner
16.2
Values of the parameters of the binomial tree
– 𝑆 = 20, 𝑟 = 12%, 𝑢 = 1.1, 𝑑 = 0.9, 𝑇 = 0.5, the
number of time steps is 𝑛 = 2, and thus the length
of each time step is Δ𝑡 = 𝑇/𝑛 = 0.25
– Hence, the risk-neutral probability 𝑝 = =
% . .
. .
= 0.6523 12.2
49
node A node E
20 19.8
1.2823 0
node C
18 node F
16.2
0
0
– For a European call option with the strike price to be
21, perform the backward induction method (逆向歸
納法) recursively on the binomial tree
Option value at node B: 𝑒 % . 0.6523 3.2 + 0.3477 0 =
2.0257
Option value at node C: 𝑒 % . 0.6523 0 + 0.3477 0 = 0
Option value at node A (the initial or root node):
𝑒 % . 0.6523 2.0257 + 0.3477 0 = 1.2823 12.2
50
Two-Period Binomial Tree Model
node D
node B
60 72
1.4147 0
node A node E
50 48
4.1923 4
node C node F
40 32
9.4636 20
Delta (Δ)
– The formula to calculate Δ in the binomial tree
model is on Slide 12.11
In the binomial tree model, Δ is the number of shares of
the stock we should hold for each option shorted in order
to create a riskless portfolio
For the one-period example on Slide 12.6, the delta of the
call option is = 0.25
– Theoretically speaking, Δ is defined as the ratio of
the change in the price of a stock option with
respect to the change in the price of the underlying
stock, i.e., Δ = 12.2
53
Delta
node A node E
20 19.8
1.2823 0
node C
18 node F
16.2
0
0
.
Δ at node A: = 0.5064
.
Δ at node B: = 0.7273
. .
Δ at node C: =0 12.2
. .
55
Delta
12.2
56
CRR Binomial Tree Model
𝑆𝑑
𝑡 𝑡 + Δ𝑡
∵ var 𝑆 =𝐸 𝑆 − 𝐸[𝑆 ]
∴ 𝑆 𝜎 Δ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑆 𝑢 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑆 𝑑 − (𝑆 𝑒 )
⇒ 𝜎 Δ𝑡 = 𝑝𝑢 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑑 − 𝑒 12.2
57
12.2
59
𝑆 𝐸𝑆 =𝑆𝑒
𝑆𝑑
𝑡 𝑡 + Δ𝑡
※ In the risk-neutral world, the total return from dividends and
capital gains is 𝑟
※ If the dividend yield is 𝑞, the return of capital gains in the stock
price should be 𝑟 − 𝑞
※ Hence, 𝑝𝑆 𝑢 + 1 − 𝑝 𝑆 𝑑 = 𝑆 𝑒 ⇒𝑝=
※ The dividend yield does NOT affect the volatility of the stock
price and thus does NOT affect the multiplying factors 𝑢 =
𝑒 and 𝑑 = 𝑒
※ Note that the discount rate for the expected payoff is still 𝑟 12.33
Valuing Stock Options:
The Black–Scholes–
Merton Model
Chapter 13
13.2
61
Goals of Chapter 13
13.2
63
ln ~𝑁𝐷((𝜇 − )𝑇, 𝜎 𝑇)
13.2
67
13.2
68
Distribution of The Stock Price
𝜇𝜏 = ln + + ⋯+
( )
= ln 𝑅 + 𝑅 + ⋯+ 𝑅 = ln 𝑅
13.2
74
RNVR and BSM model
/ /
𝑑 = = 𝑑 −𝜎 𝑇
13.2
78
RNVR and BSM model
𝑛(𝑥) 𝑁(𝑑)
𝑑
𝑁 𝑑 needs to be solved with numerical techniques
In Excel 2016, “NORM.S.DIST(𝑑,1)” returns 𝑁 𝑑 and
“NORM.S.DIST(𝑑,0)” returns 𝑛 𝑑
In exams, a table for finding the value of 𝑁 𝑑 is offered 13.2
79
13.2
83
13.2
86
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility
13.2
90
Effects of Cash Dividend
Payments on Option Prices
European options on dividend-paying stocks
are valued by substituting 𝑆 for 𝑆 − 𝐷 in
the BSM or the binomial tree models
– 𝐷 is the sum of the PV (discounted at 𝑟) of the
dividend payments during the life of the option
– Note that this technique is used to determine the
forward price in Ch. 5 and to modify the lower
bounds and the put-call parity of options in Ch. 10
– Reasons for this replacement method:
Note that that on the ex-dividend dates, the stock prices
are expected to reduce by the amounts of the dividend
payments 13.2
91
13.2
92
Effects of Cash Dividend
Payments on Option Prices
For American options, it can be priced with
only some numerical methods like the
binomial tree model
– To take the dividend payments into account, the
technique of replacing 𝑆 with 𝑆 − 𝐷 is no more
valid
– This is because in order to make the optimal early
exercise decision, we need the correct probability
distribution of the stock price at all time point 𝑡,
which cannot be achieved by the replacement of 𝑆
with 𝑆 − 𝐷
13.2
93
13.2
94
Effects of Cash Dividend
Payments on Option Prices
– Approximate the American call equal to the
maximum of two European option prices:
1. The 1st European option price is for an option maturing
at the same time as the American option
2. The 2nd European option price is for an option
maturing just before the final ex-dividend date
(The strike price, initial stock price, risk-free interest rate,
and the volatility are the same for the options under
consideration)
※ Note that the binomial tree model can evaluate
American calls or puts accurately with proper
modifications for dealing with the cash dividend
payments (beyond the scope of this course) 13.2
95