RSA Ques10Bank Sample
RSA Ques10Bank Sample
RSA Ques10Bank Sample
5 Analysis
Preface
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Ques10 Bank
Syllabus
Module Content Page
No. nos.
1 Overview of Probability Theory and Basics of Random 05
Variables
1.1 Sample Space, events, set operations, the notion and
axioms of probability.
1.2 Conditional probability, Joint probabilty, Baye's rule,
Independence of events, Sequential Experiments
1.3 Notion of random variable
1.4 Continuous random variables, probability density
function, probability distribution function, Uniform,
Exponential and Gaussain continuous random variables and
distributions.
1.5 Discrete random variables, probability mass function,
probability distribution function, binomial, Poisson and
geometric discrete random variables and distributions.
2 Operations on One Random Variable 21
2.1 Functions of a random variable and their distribution and
density functions.
2.2 Expectations, Variance and Moments of random variable
2.3 Transformation of a random variable, Markov, Chebyshev
and Chernoff bounds, characteristic functions, moment
theorem.
3 Multiple of Random Variables and Convergence 22
3.1 Vector random variables, Pairs of random variables, Joint
CDF, Joint PDF, Independence, Conditional CDF and PDF,
Conditional Expectation.
3.2 One function of two random variable, two functions of
two random variables: joint moments, joint characteristic
function, covariance and correlation-independent,
uncorrelated and orthogonal random variables.
4 Sequence of Random Variables and Convergence 34
4.1 Random sequences, Limit theorems: Strong and weak laws
of larger numbers.
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Distribution Matrix
Module Dec May Dec May
2014 2015 2015 2016
1. Overview of Probability 40 10 35 10
Theory and Basics of Random
Variables
2. Operations on One Random 5 5 - 5
Variable
3. Multiple of Random 10 20 30 30
Variables and Convergence
4. Sequence of Random 15 25 15 10
Variables and Convergence
5. Random Process 40 40 30 25
Overall Weightage
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Q1) State and prove Total Probability theorem and Bayes's theorem?
Ans: [5M, 4M|May 2015, Dec 2014, Dec 2015, May 2016]
Total Probability Theorem:
Statement: If 𝐵1 , 𝐵2 , ……….𝐵𝑛 be a set of exhaustive and mutually exclusive
events and A is another event associated with (or caused by) 𝐵𝑖 , then
𝑛
𝐴
𝑃(𝐴) = ∑ 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐵𝑖
𝑖=1
Proof:
The inner circle represents the event A. A can occur along with (or due to) 𝐵1 ,
𝐵2 , ……….𝐵𝑛 that are exhaustive and mutually exclusive.
∴ 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑃 (∑ 𝐴𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖=1
𝑛
= ∑ 𝑃(𝐴𝐵𝑖 )
𝑖=1
𝑨
∴ 𝑷(𝑨) = ∑𝒏𝒊=𝟏 𝑷(𝑩𝒊 ). 𝑷 ( )…… (A) (Using conditional
𝑩𝒊
probability
𝑃(𝐴𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) =
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Ques10 Bank
𝐵 𝐴
𝑃(𝐵). 𝑃 ( ) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃 ( ))
𝐴 𝐵
𝐴
𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ).𝑃( )
𝐵𝑖 𝐵𝑖
𝑃( ) = 𝐴
i=1, 2 ….n
𝐴 ∑𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ).𝑃( ) 𝐵𝑖
Proof:
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2000
𝑃(𝐵1 ) = = 0.02
100000
Hence probability that a person does not have the cancer:
𝑃(𝐵2 ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐵1 ) = 1 − 0.02 = 0.98
Probability the test is positive when a person has cancer is:
𝐴 95
𝑃( )= = 0.95
𝐵1 100
Probability the test is positive when a person does not have the cancer is:
𝐴
𝑃( ) = 1 − 0.95 = 0.05
𝐵2
According to total probability theorem
𝒏
𝑨
𝑷(𝑨) = ∑ 𝑷(𝑩𝒊 ). 𝑷 ( )
𝑩𝒊
𝒊=𝟏
𝑨 𝑨
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝑷 ( ) . 𝑷(𝑩𝟏 ) + 𝑷 ( ) . 𝑷(𝑩𝟐 )
𝑩𝟏 𝑩𝟐
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 + 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 × 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖
𝑷(𝑨) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟕𝟐
Using Bayes Theorem
𝑨
𝑩 𝑷(𝑩𝒊 ).𝑷( )
𝑩𝒊
𝑷 ( 𝒊) =
𝑨 𝑷(𝑨)
𝐴
𝐵1 𝑃(𝐵1 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐵1
𝑃( ) =
𝐴 𝑛 𝐴
∑𝑖=1 𝑃(𝐵𝑖 ). 𝑃 ( )
𝐵𝑖
𝑩𝟏 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 × 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓
𝑷( ) = = 𝟎. 𝟐𝟖𝟐𝟕
𝑨 𝟎. 𝟎𝟔𝟕𝟐