THE DYNAMICS OF GLOBAL

URBAN EXPANSION

Jequié, Brazil, 1988 Jequié, Brazil, 2001

Jequié,

Prof. Shlomo Angel, NYU and Princeton

Prepared for the World Bank’s 2006 Urban forum
Washington DC, 21 March 2006

Acknowledgements

This presentation is largely based on:

Angel, Shlomo, Stephen C. Sheppard and Daniel L. Civco, with

Robert Buckley, Anna Chabaeva, Lucy Gitlin, Alison Kraley,
Jason Parent, and Micah Perlin, 2005, The Dynamics of Global
Urban Expansion,
Expansion, Transport and Urban Development
Department, The World Bank, Washington D.C., September.
Online at:
www.citiesalliance.org/doc/resources/upgrading/urban--
www.citiesalliance.org/doc/resources/upgrading/urban
expansion/worldbankreportsept2005.pdf..
expansion/worldbankreportsept2005.pdf

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 Outline

1. Background and objectives

2. The research design and the sample of cities;
3. The classification of built-
built-up areas;
4. Measuring urban extent and expansion;
5. Modeling urban extent and expansion;
6. The policy implications of the study for developing countries.

1. Background and Objectives

The urban population of the developing countries will double in 30
years, from 2 billion in 2000 to 4 billion in 2030.
Urban Population Projections, 2000-2030 (by Region)

4,500

4,000
Urban Population (Millions)

3,500

3,000

2,500 2000
2,000 2030

1,500

1,000

500

0
N.Amer. Europe LAC Africa Asia Ind Dev

Region

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 1.Background and Objectives (cont.)
Built- up area densities are decreasing everywhere, largely because of
Built-
increased incomes. According to our preliminary estimates, the built
built-- up area
of developing-
developing -country cities will at least triple by 2030.

Built-Up Area Projections, 2000-2030 (by Region)

900

800
700
Area ('000 Sq.Km.)

600
500 2000
400 2030

300
200

100
0
N.Amer. Europe LAC Africa Asia Ind Dev
Region

1.Background and Objectives (cont.)

What are the implications of the accelerated rate of global urban
urba n
expansion?

What can be done now to confront the projected urban expansion in

in
developing country cities?
What are the basic dimensions of the policy debate?

Queen Elizabeth I, 1592: prohibit “any new building of any house or

tenement within three miles of any of the gates of the said city of
London”.

New York City Commissioners, 1811: “The whole island has been
laid out as a city…” (increasing its size more than tenfold).

The three main policy options

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2. The research design and the sample of cities

The first phase (with World Bank funding):

1. Create a global sample of cities;
2. Classify Landsat images of sampled cities in two time periods;
3. Construct a number of descriptive metrics of urban expansion;
4. Derive explanatory models of urban expansion.

The second phase: (with NSF funding):

1. Improve the satellite data classification;
2. Improve the descriptive metrics;
3. Improve the explanatory models.

2. The research design and the sample (cont.)

Initially, we identified only 2,719 distinct metropolitan areas that

had populations in excess of 100,000 in the year 2000 (from V.
Henderson).

To create a stratified sample of 120 cities, we divided these

cities into:

1. 9 regions (UN Habitat);

2. 4 income groups (World Bank); and

3. 4 city population sizes.

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2. The research design and the sample (cont.)
The global sample of cities

3. The Classification of Built-

Built-Up Areas

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2000

EarthSat’s GeoCover computer-assisted processing

LandCover product of Landsat data

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3. The Classification of Built-
Built-Up Areas (cont.)
Songkhla, Thailand, 2000

SEDAC’s nightlight computer assisted

classification processing of Landsat data

4. Measuring Urban Extent and Expansion

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 Built-Up Area in Cities of 100,000 or More, 1990-2000
(By Region)

180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
Area (sq.km)

100,000 1990
80,000 2000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
EAP E LAC NA ODC SCA SEA SSA WA
Region

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 Built-Up Area Density, 1990-2000 (by Region)

30,000
Density (Persons per Sq.Km.)

25,000

20,000
1990
15,000
2000
10,000

5,000

0
EAP E LAC NA ODC SCA SEA SSA WA Dev Ind World
Region

Built-Up Area per Person, 1990-2000 (By Region)

500
450
400
Area per Person (Sq.M.)

350
300
1990
250
2000
200
150
100
50
0
EAP E LAC NA ODC SCA SEA SSA WA Dev Ind World
Region

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 Built-Up Area Density, 1990-2000 (By Income Group)

18,000
16,000
Density (Peorsons per Sq.Km.)

14,000
12,000
10,000
1990
8,000
2000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
LI LMI UPI HI
Income Group

Built-Up Area Density, 1990-2000 (By City Population Size)

9,000

8,000
Density (Persons per Sq.Km.)

7,000

6,000

5,000 1990
4,000 2000

3,000
2,000

1,000

0
110K-528K 528K-1.49M 1.49M-4.18M 4.18M+
City Population Size

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 5. Modeling urban extent and expansion

Logarithmic Models of Urban Expansion

6. The Policy Implications of the Study

for Developing Countries

* Anticipating the scale of change;

* The potential impact of “imported” compact city policies;
* The three policy options commonly advocated:
- “Keeping people on the farm”;
- Resisting “primacy”;
- Planning for urban growth and expansion;
* The failure of planning for urban expansion through regulation;
* Minimal planning and infrastructure
infrastructure--led urban expansion;
* The costs of failure.
* * *
Thank You!

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