MEP Y9 Practice Book A

6 Probability
6.1 The Probability Scale
Probabilities are given on a scale of 0 to 1, as decimals or as fractions; sometimes
probabilities are expressed as percentages using a scale of 0% to 100%,
particularly on weather forecasts.

0 This is the probability of something that is impossible.

1 This is the probability of something that is certain.

1
This is the probability of something that is as likely to happen
2
as it is not to happen.

Example 1
Decide whether or not each of the statements below is reasonable.
(a) The probability that it will snow on Christmas Day in London is 0.9.
(b) The probability that you will win a raffle prize is 0.5.
(c) The probability that you will go to bed before midnight tonight is 0.99.
(d) The probability that your pocket money is doubled tomorrow is 0.01.

Solution
(a) This is not reasonable as the probability given is much too high. It very
rarely snows in London in late December, so the probability should be close
to 0.
(b) This probability is far too high. You would need to have bought half of all
the tickets sold to obtain this probability, so this statement is not reasonable.
(c) This is a reasonable statement as it is very likely that you will go to bed
before midnight, but not certain that you will.
(d) This is a reasonable statement, as it is very unlikely that your pocket money
will be doubled tomorrow, but not totally impossible.

Example 2
On a probability scale, mark and estimate the probability that:
(a) it will rain tomorrow,
(b) England will win their next football match,
(c) someone in your class has a birthday tomorrow.

121
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.1

Solution
(a) This will depend on the time of year and the prevailing weather conditions.
During a dry spell in summer,

0 0.5 1

During a wet spell in winter,

0 0.5 1

(b) Based on their recent form, it is reasonable to say that England are slightly
more likely to draw or lose their next match than to win it, so an estimate
would be a little less than 0.5.

0 0.5 1

(c) The probability of this will be fairly small, as you can expect there to be
about 2 or 3 birthdays per month for pupils in a class of about 30 pupils.

0 0.5 1

Exercises
1. Describe something that is:
(a) very unlikely, (b) unlikely,
(c) likely, (d) very likely.

2. State whether or not each of the statements below is reasonable.

(a) The probability that there will be a General Election next year is 0.2.
(b) The probability that England will win the next football World Cup is 0.8.
(c) The probability that it will not rain tomorrow is 0.9.
(d) The probability that your school will be hit by lightning in the next
week is 0.1.

122
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

3. (a) List the things described, in order, with the most likely first.
A You travel on a bus that breaks down on the way home from school.
B Your pocket money is increased during the next two weeks.
C You enjoy your school lunch tomorrow.
D You have already had a birthday this year.

(b) Mark estimates of the probabilities of each of these on a copy of the

probability scale similar to the one below:

0 0.5 1

4. Explain why the probability that you will be the first person to walk on the
moon is zero.

5. Describe something that has a probability of zero.

6. (a) Do you agree that the probability that you will not be abducted by
aliens in the next 24 hours is 1 ?
(b) Explain why.

7. Describe something that has a probability of 1.

1
8. When you toss a fair coin, the probability of obtaining a head is and the
2
1
probability of obtaining a tail is.
2
1
Describe something else that has a probability that is equal to or close to .
2

9. A packet of sweets contains mostly red sweets, a few green sweets and only
one yellow sweet. You take a sweet at random from the packet.
The events A, B, C and D are listed below.
A You take a yellow sweet.
B You take a green sweet.
C You take a red sweet.
D You take a blue sweet.
(a) Write these outcomes in order of probability, with the most likely first.
(b) Mark the probability of each outcome on a scale similar to the one below.

0 0.5 1

123
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.1

10. The probability that a train is late is 0.1. Which of the following statements
is the most reasonable:
A The train is unlikely to be late.
B The train is very unlikely to be late.
C The train is likely to be late.
Explain why you have chosen your answer.

11. (a) Joe has these cards:

8 3 9 4 5 2 7 9

Sara takes a card without looking.

Joe says: "On Sara's card, is more likely than ."
Explain why Joe is wrong.

Choose one of the following words and phrases to fill in the gaps in the
sentences below:
Impossible Not Likely Certain Likely
It is ............... that the number on Sara's card will be smaller than 10.
It is ............... that the number on Sara's card will be an odd number.

(b) Joe still has these cards:

8 3 9 4 5 2 7 9

He mixes them up and puts them face down on the table. Then he
turns the first card over, like this:

Joe is going to turn the next card over.

Copy and complete this sentence:
On the next card, ............... is less likely than ............... .
The number on the next card could be higher than 5 or lower than 5.
Which of the following possibilities is more likely?
Higher than 5 Lower than 5 Cannot tell
Explain your answer.
(KS3/97/Ma/Tier 3-5/P2)

124
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

12. Here are four spinners, labelled P, Q, R and S.

Q
P

KEY
S
Plain
R
Shaded

Striped

(a) Which spinner gives the greatest chance that the arrow will land on
plain?
(b) Which spinner gives the smallest chance that the arrow will land on
shaded?
(c) Shade a copy of the spinner shown so
that it is certain that the arrow will
land on shaded.

(d) Shade a copy of this spinner so that

there is a 50% chance that the arrow
will land on shaded.

(KS2/98/Ma/Tier 4-6/P2)

13. Bryn has some bags with some black beads and some white beads. He is
going to take a bead from each bag without looking.
(a) Match the pictures to the statements. The first is done for you.

A B C D E

125
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.1

(i) It is impossible that Bryn will take a black bead from bag D.
(ii) It is unlikely that Bryn will take a black bead from bag ..... .
(iii) It is equally likely that Bryn will take a black bead or a white
bead from bag ..... .
(iv) It is likely that Bryn will take a black bead from bag ..... .
(v) It is certain that Bryn will take a black bead from bag ..... .

(b) Bryn has 5 white beads in a bag.

He wants to make it more likely that he will take a black bead than a
white bead out of the bag.
How many black beads should Bryn put into the bag?

(c) There are 20 beads altogether in another bag. All the beads are either
black or white.
It is equally likely that Bryn will take a black bead or a white bead
from the bag.
How many black beads and how many white beads are there in the
bag?
(KS3/99/Ma/Tier 3-5/P2)

6.2 The Probability of a Single Event

In this section we consider the probabilities of equally likely events. When you
roll a fair dice, each of the numbers 1 to 6 is equally likely to be on the uppermost
face of the dice.

For equally likely events:

number of ways of obtaining outcome
p(a particular outcome) =
total number of outcomes

Example 1
A card is taken at random from a full pack of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability that it is:
(a) a red card, (b) a 'Queen',
(c) a red 'Ace', (d) the 'Seven of Hearts',
(e) an even number?

126
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

Solution
As each card is equally likely to be drawn from the pack there are 52 equally
likely outcomes.
(a) There are 26 red cards in the pack, so:
26
p(red) =
52
1
=
2

(b) There are 4 Queens in the pack, so:

4
p(Queen) =
52
1
=
13

(c) There are 2 red Aces in the pack, so:

2
p(red Ace) =
52
1
=
26

(d) There is only one 7 of Hearts in the pack, so:

1
p(7 of Hearts) =
52

(e) There are 20 cards that have even numbers in the pack, so:
20
p(even number) =
52
5
=
13

Example 2
A packet of sweets contains 18 red sweets, 12 green sweets and 10 yellow sweets.
A sweet is taken at random from the packet. What is the probability that the sweet is:
(a) red,
(b) not green,
(c) green or yellow ?

127
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.2

Solution
The total number of sweets in the packet is 40, so there are 40 equally likely
outcomes when one is taken at random.
(a) There are 18 red sweets in the packet, so:
18
p(red) =
40
9
=
20

(b) There are 28 sweets that are not green in the packet, so:
28
p ( not green ) =
40
7
=
10

(c) There are 22 sweets that are green or yellow in the packet, so:
22
p (green or yellow) =
40
11
=
20

Example 3
You roll a fair dice 120 times. How many times would you expect to obtain:
(a) a 6, (b) an even score, (c) a score of less than 5 ?

Solution
1
(a) p (6 ) =
6
1
Expected number of 6s = × 120
6
= 20

3
(b) p (even score) =
6
1
=
2
1
Expected number of even scores = × 120
2
= 60

128
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

4
(c) p (score less than 5) =
6
2
=
3
2
Expected number of scores less than 5 = × 120
3
= 80

Exercises
1. You roll a fair dice. What is the probability that you obtain:
(a) a five, (b) a three, (c) an even number,
(d) a multiple of 3, (e) a number less than 6 ?

2. A jar contains 9 red counters and 21 blue counters. A counter is taken at

random from the jar. What is the probability that it is:
(a) red, (b) blue, (c) green ?

3. You take a card at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. What is the
probability that the card is:
(a) a red King, (b) a Queen or a King, (c) a 5, 6 or 7,
(d) a Diamond, (e) not a Club ?

4. A jar contains 4 red balls, 3 green balls and 5 yellow balls. One ball is taken
at random from the jar. What is the probability that it is:
(a) green, (b) red, (c) yellow,
(d) not red, (e) yellow or red ?

5. The faces of a regular tetrahedron are numbered 1 to 4. When it is rolled it

lands face down on one of these numbers. What is the probability that this
number is:
(a) 2, (b) 3,
(c) 1, 2 or 3, (d) an even number ?

6. A spinner is numbered as shown in the diagram.

Each score is equally likely to occur.
What is the probability of scoring: 4 1 2
(a) 1, (b) 2, 1 1
(c) 3, (d) 4, 3 1 2
(e) 5, (f) a number less than 6 ?

129
6.2 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

7. You toss a fair coin 360 times.

(a) How many times would you expect to obtain a head?
(b) If you obtained 170 heads, would you think that the coin was biased?
Explain why.

8. A spinner has numbers 1 to 5, so that each number is equally likely to be

scored. How many times would you expect to get a score of 5, if the spinner
is spun:
(a) 10 times, (b) 250 times, (c) 400 times ?

9. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards, and then replaced.
The process is repeated a total of 260 times. How many times would you
expect the card drawn to be:
(a) a 7, (b) a red Queen, (c) a red card,
(d) a Heart, (e) a card with an even number ?

10. A six-sided spinner is shown in the diagram.

It is spun 180 times. 1
2 4
How many times would you expect to obtain:
(a) a score of 1, 1 2
1
(b) a score less than 4,
(c) a score that is a prime number, (d) a score of 4 ?

11. Barry is doing an experiment. He drops 20 matchsticks

at random onto a grid of parallel lines.
Barry does the experiment 10 times and records his results.
He wants to work out an estimate of probability.
Number of the 20 matchsticks that have fallen across a line
5 7 6 4 6 8 5 3 5 7

(a) Use Barry's data to work out the probability that a single matchstick
when dropped will fall across one of the lines. Show your working.
(b) Barry continues the experiment until he has dropped the 20 matchsticks
60 times.
About how many matchsticks in total would you expect to fall across
one of the lines? Show your working.
(KS3/96/Ma/Tier 5-7/P2)

12. Les, Tom, Nia and Ann are in a singing competition. To decide the order in
which they will sing all four names are put into a bag. Each name is taken out
of the bag, one at a time, without looking.

130
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

(a) Write down all the possible orders with Tom singing second.
(b) In a different competition there are 8 singers. The probability that Tom
1
sings second is .
8
Work out the probability that Tom does not sing second.
(KS3/96/Ma/Tier 4-6/P1)

13. (a) What is the probability of getting a 3 on this spinner?

1 2
3
(b) Shade a copy of the following spinner so that the chance of getting a
shaded section is double the chance of getting a white section.

(c) Shade a copy of the following spinner so that there is a 40% chance of
getting a shaded section.

(KS3/95/Ma/Levels 4-6/P1)

14. Pat has 5 white beads and 1 black bead in her bag. She asks two friends
about the probability of picking a black bead without looking in the bag.
1
Owen says: "It is because there are 5 white beads and 1 black bead."
5
1
Maria says: "It is because there are 6 beads and 1 is black."
6
(a) Which of Pat's friends is correct? Explain why the other friend is
wrong.
(b) Tracy has a different bag of black beads and white beads.
7
The probability of picking a black bead from Tracy's bag is .
13
What is the probability of picking a white bead from Tracy's bag?

131
6.2 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

(c) How many black beads and how many white beads could be in Tracy's
bag?
(d) Peter has a different bag of black beads and white beads.
Peter has more beads in total than Tracy.
7
The probability of picking a black bead from Peter's bag is also .
13
How many black beads and how many white beads could be in Peter's
bag?
(KS3/94/Ma/4-6/P1)

15. Brightlite company makes light bulbs. The state of the company's machines
can be:
available for use and being used
or available for use but not needed
or broken down.
(a) The table shows the probabilities of the state of the machines in July
1994. What is the missing probability?

State of machines: July 1994 Probability

Available for use, being used

Available for use, not needed 0.09

Broken down 0.03

(b) During another month the probability of a machine being available for
use was 0.92. What was the probability of a machine being broken
down?
(c) Brightlite calculated the probabilities of a bulb failing within
1000 hours and within 2000 hours.
Copy and complete the table below to show the probabilities of a bulb
still working at 1000 hours and at 2000 hours.

Time Failed Still working

At 1000 hours 0.07

At 2000 hours 0.57

(KS3/95/Ma/Levels 5-7/P1)

132
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

16. A machine sells sweets in five different colours:

red, green, orange, yellow, purple.
You cannot choose which colour you get.
There are the same number of each colour in the machine.
Two boys want to buy a sweet each.
Ken does not like orange sweets or yellow sweets. Colin likes them all.

(a) What is the probability that Ken will get a sweet that he likes?

(b) What is the probability that Colin will get a sweet that he likes?

(c) Copy the following scale and draw an arrow to show the probability
that Ken will get a sweet that he likes. Label the arrow 'Ken'.

0 1

(d) On your scale from (c), draw an arrow to show the probability that
Colin will get a sweet that he likes. Label this arrow 'Colin'.

0 1

(e) Mandy buys one sweet. The arrow on the following scale shows the
probability that Mandy gets a sweet that she likes.
Mandy

0 1
Write a sentence that could describe which sweets Mandy likes.
(KS3/96/Ma/Tier 3-5/P2)

133
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

6.3 The Probability of Two Events

In this section we review the use of listings, tables and tree diagrams to calculate
the probabilities of two events.

Example 1
An unbiased coin is tossed twice.
(a) List all the possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability of obtaining two heads?
(c) What is the probability of obtaining a head and a tail in any order?

Solution
(a) The possible outcomes are:
H H
H T
T H
T T

So there are 4 possible outcomes that are all equally likely to occur as the
coin is not biased.

(b) There is only one way of obtaining 2 heads, so:

1
p (2 heads) =
4

(c) There are two ways of obtaining a head and a tail, H T and T H, so:
2
p (a head and a tail) =
4
1
=
2

Example 2
A red dice and a blue dice, both unbiased, are rolled at the same time. The scores
on the two dice are then added together.
(a) Use a table to show all the possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability of obtaining:
(i) a score of 5,
(ii) a score which is greater than 3,
(iii) a score which is an even number?

134
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

Solution
(a) The following table shows all of the 36 possible outcomes:

Red Dice
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Blue 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Dice 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12

(b) (i) There are 4 ways of scoring 5, so:

4
p (5) =
36
1
=
9
(ii) There are 33 ways of obtaining a score greater than 3, so:
33
p (greater than 3) =
36
11
=
12
(iii) There are 18 ways of obtaining a score which is an even number, so:
18
p (even score) =
36
1
=
2

Example 3
A card is taken at random from a pack of 52 playing cards, and then replaced. A
second card is then drawn at random from the pack.
Use a tree diagram to determine the probability that:
(a) both cards are Diamonds,
(b) at least one card is a Diamond,
(c) exactly one card is a Diamond,
(d) neither card is a Diamond.

135
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.3

Solution
We first note that, for a single card drawn from the pack,
13 1 39 3
p (Diamond ) = = and p ( not Diamond ) = = .
52 4 52 4

We put these probabilities on the branches of the tree diagram below:

PROBABILITIES
1st Card 2nd Card
1 1 1 1
Diamond × =
4 4 4 16
1 Diamond 3
4 4 Not 1 3 3
Diamond × =
4 4 16
3 1 3 1 3
4 4 Diamond × =
4 4 16
Not 3
Diamond
4
Not 3 3 9
Diamond × =
4 4 16

16
Total = = 1
16

Note also that the probability for each combination, for example, two Diamonds,
is determined by multiplying the probabilities along the branches.

1
(a) p ( both Diamonds) =
16

1 3 3
(b) p (at least one Diamond) = + +
16 16 16
7
=
16

3 3
(c) p (exactly one Diamond) = +
16 16
6
=
16
3
=
8

9
(d) p ( neither card a Diamond) =
16

136
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

Exercises
1. The faces of an unbiased dice are painted so that 2 are red, 2 are blue and
2 are yellow. The dice is rolled twice. Three of the possible outcomes are
listed below:
R R R B R Y
(a) List all 9 possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability that:
(i) both faces are red,
(ii) both faces are the same colour,
(iii) the faces are of different colours?

2. A spinner is marked with the letters A, B, C and D, so that each letter is

equally likely to be obtained. The spinner is spun twice.
(a) List the 16 possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability that:
(i) A is obtained twice,
(ii) A is obtained at least once,
(iii) both letters are the same,
(iv) the letter B is not obtained at all?

3. Two fair dice are renumbered so that they have the following numbers on
their faces:
1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6
The dice are rolled at the same time, and their scores added together.
(a) Draw a table to show the 36 possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability that the total score is:
(i) 6, (ii) 3,
(iii) greater than 10, (iv) less than 5 ?

4. A red spinner is marked with the numbers 1 to 4 and a blue spinner is

marked with the numbers 1 to 5. On each spinner all the numbers are
equally likely to be obtained. The two spinners are spun at the same time
and the two scores are added together.
(a) Draw a table to show the 20 possible outcomes.
(b) What is the probability that the total score on the two spinners is:
(i) an even number, (ii) the number 7,
(iii) a number greater than 4, (iv) a number less than 7 ?

137
6.3 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

5. An unbiased dice is rolled and a fair coin is tossed at the same time.
(a) Either list all the possible outcomes or show them in a table.
(b) What is the probability of obtaining:
(i) a head and a 6, (ii) a tail and an odd number,
(iii) a tail and a number less than 5 ?

3
6. A coin is biased so that the probability of obtaining a head is and the
5
2
probability of obtaining a tail is.
5
(a) Copy and complete the following tree diagram to show the possible
outcomes and probabilities if the coin is tossed twice.

Second Toss of Coin PROBABILITIES

First Toss of Coin
3 3 3 9
HEAD × =
5 5 5 25
3 HEAD
5
TAIL
2
5
TAIL

(b) What is the probability of obtaining:

(i) 2 heads, (ii) at least one head,
(iii) 2 tails, (iv) exactly 1 tail ?

7. An unbiased dice is rolled twice in a game. If a 1 or a 6 is obtained, you win

a prize.
(a) Copy and complete the following tree diagram:

Second Roll PROBABILITIES

First Roll
1
× =
3
1 PRIZE
3

NO
PRIZE

(b) What is the probability that a player wins:

(i) 2 prizes, (ii) 1 prize, (iii) at least 1 prize ?

138
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

8. A card is taken at random from a pack of 52 playing cards. It is replaced

and a second card is then taken at random from the pack.
A card is said to be a 'Royal' card if it is a King, Queen or Jack.
Use a tree diagram to calculate the probability that:
(a) both cards are Royals, (b) one card is a Royal,
(c) at least one card is a Royal, (d) neither card is a Royal.

1
9. The probability that a school bus is late on any day is . Use a tree
10
diagram to calculate the probability that on two consecutive days, the bus is:
(a) late twice, (b) late once, (c) never late.

1
10. The probability that a piece of bread burns in a toaster is . Two slices of
9
bread are toasted, one after the other.
(a) Use a tree diagram to calculate the probability that at least one of
these slices of bread burns in the toaster.
(b) Extend your tree diagram to include toasting 3 slices, one at a time.
Calculate the probability of at least one slice burning in the toaster.

11. A coin has two sides, heads and tails.

(a) Chris is going to toss a coin. What is the probability that Chris will
get heads? Write your answer as a fraction.
(b) Sion is going to toss 2 coins. Copy and complete the following table
to show the different results he could get.

First coin Second coin

heads heads

(c) Sion is going to toss 2 coins. What is the probability that he will get
tails with both his coins? Write your answer as a fraction.
(d) Dianne tossed one coin. She got tails.
Dianne is going to toss another coin.
What is the probability that she will get tails again with her next coin?
Write your answer as a fraction.
(KS3/99/Ma/Tier 3-5/P1)

139
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.3

12. I have two fair dice. Each of the dice is numbered 1 to 6.

(a) The probability that I will throw double 6 (both dice showing
number 6) is
1
36
What is the probability that I will not throw double 6 ?

(b) I throw both dice and get double 6. Then I throw both dice again.
Which one answer from the list below describes the probability that
I will throw double 6 this time?
1
less than
36
1
36
1
more than
36
Explain your answer.

I start again and throw both dice.

(c) What is the probability that I will throw double 3 (both dice showing
number 3) ?
(d) What is the probability that I will throw a double? (It could be double
1 or double 2 or any other double.)
(KS3/98/Ma/Tier 4-6/P2)

13. On a road there are two sets of traffic lights. The traffic lights work
independently.
For each set of traffic lights, the probability that a driver will have to stop is
0.7.
(a) A woman is going to drive along the road.
(i) What is the probability that she will have to stop at both sets of
traffic lights?
(ii)What is the probability that she will have to stop at only one of
the two sets of traffic lights?
Show your working.
(b) In one year, a man drives 200 times along the road. Calculate an
estimate of the number of times he drives through both sets of traffic
lights without stopping. Show your working.
(KS3/99/Ma/Tier 6-8/P2)

140
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

14. 100 students were asked whether they studied French or German.
Results:
French German

39 27 30

27 students studied both French and German.

(a) What is the probability that a student chosen at random will study only
one of the languages?
(b) What is the probability that a student who is studying German is also
studying French?
(c) Two of the 100 students are chosen at random.
From the following calculations, write down one which shows the
probability that both students study French and German.

27 26 27 26 27 27
× + +
100 100 100 99 100 100

27 26 27 27
× ×
100 99 100 100
(KS3/98/Ma/Tier 6-8/P1)

15. A company makes computer disks. It tested a random sample of the disks
from a large batch. The company calculated the probability of any disk
being defective as 0.025.
Glenda buys 2 disks.
(a) Calculate the probability that both disks are defective.
(b) Calculate the probability that only one of the disks is defective.
(c) The company found 3 defective disks in the sample they tested.
How many disks were likely to have been tested?
(KS3/96/Ma/Tier 6-8/P2)

16. On a tropical island the probability of it raining on the first day of the rainy
2
season is . If it does not rain on the first day, the probability of it raining
3
7
on the second day is . If it rains on the first day, the probability of it
10
1
raining more than 10 mm on the first day is . If it rains on the second day
5
141
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.3

but not on the first day, the probability of it raining more than 10 mm is
1
.
4
You may find it helpful to copy and complete the tree diagram before
answering the questions.
FIRST DAY SECOND DAY
More than
........ 10 mm

Rain
........ Less than or
equal to
........ 10 mm More than
........ 10 mm

........ No rain ........ Rain

Less thean or
equal to
........ 10 mm
No rain
........

(a) What is the probability that it rains more than 10 mm on the second
day, and does not rain on the first? Show your working.
(b) What is the probability that it has rained by the end of the second day
of the rainy season? Show your working.
(c) Why is it not possible to work out the probability of rain on both
days from the information given?
(KS3/96/Ma/Ext)

17. Pupils at a school invented a word game called Wordo. They tried it out
with a large sample of people and found that the probability of winning
Wordo was 0.6.
The pupils invented another word game, Lango. The same sample who had
played Wordo then played Lango. The pupils drew this tree diagram to
show the probabilities of winning.

Win 0.8

0.6 Lango
Win
Lose 0.2
Wordo
Win 0.55

Lose 0.4 Lango

Lose 0.45

142
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

(a) What was the probability of someone from the sample winning
Lango?
(b) What was the probability of someone from the sample winning only
one of the two word games?
(c) The pupils also invented a dice game. They tried it out with the same
sample of people who had already played Wordo and Lango.
The probability of winning the dice game was 0.9. This was found to
be independent of the probabilities for Wordo and Lango.
Calculate the probability of someone from the sample winning two out
of these three games.
(d) Calculate the probability of someone from the sample winning only
one of these three games.
(KS3/95/Ma/Levels 9-10)

6.4 Theoretical and Experimental Probabilities

In this section we compare theoretical and experimental probabilities.
The term 'theoretical probabilities' describes those which have been calculated, for
example by the methods described in sections 6.2. and 6.3.
'Experimental probabilities' are estimates for probabilities that cannot be determined
logically. They can be derived from the results of experiments, but often they are
obtained from the analysis of statistical data or historical records.
Here we obtain experimental probabilities from simple experiments and compare
them with the theoretical probabilities.

Example 1
An unbiased dice is to be rolled 240 times.
(a) Calculate the number of times you would expect to obtain each of the
possible scores.
(b) Now roll the dice 240 times and collect some experimental results,
presenting them in a bar chart.
(c) Compare the theoretical and experimental results.

Solution
1
(a) p (6 ) =
6
1
Expected number of 6s = × 240
6
= 40
Similarly, you would expect to obtain each of the possible scores 40 times.

143
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.4

(b) The results of the experiment are recorded in the following table:

Score Tally Frequency

1 44

2 42

3 42

4 34

5 36

6 42

These results are illustrated in the following bar chart. A horizontal line has
been drawn to show the expected frequencies for the scores.

Frequency
44
42
40 Expected
Frequency
38
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 Score

Note that none of the bars is of the expected height; some are above and
some are below. However, all the bars are close to the predicted number.
We would not expect to obtain exactly the predicted number. The more
times the experiment is carried out, the closer the experimental results will
be to the theoretical predictions.

144
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

Exercises
1. (a) A fair coin is tossed 100 times. How many heads and how many tails
would your expect to obtain?
(b) Toss a fair coin 100 times and display your results using a bar chart.
(c) Compare your theoretical predictions with your experimental results.

2. Two fair coins are to be tossed at the same time.

(a) Calculate the probability of obtaining:
(i) 2 heads, (ii) a head and a tail, (iii) 2 tails.
(b) Calculate the number of times you would expect to obtain each
outcome if the coins are tossed 100 times.
(c) Toss two coins 100 times and illustrate your results using a bar chart.
(d) Compare your theoretical predictions with your experimental results.

3. (a) List the 8 possible outcomes when 3 fair coins are tossed at the same
time.
(b) If three fair coins were tossed 32 times, how many times would you
expect to obtain:
(i) 3 heads, (ii) 2 heads,
(iii) 1 head, (iv) 0 heads ?
(c) Carry out an experiment and compare your theoretical predictions
with your experimental results.

4. (a) What are the expected frequencies of the totals 2, 3, 4, ..., 11, 12 when
two fair dice are thrown at the same time and the experiment is
repeated 36 times?
(b) Carry out the experiment in (a) and compare the predicted and
experimental frequencies.
(c) Repeat (a) and (b) for 144 throws.
(d) Comment on how carrying out the experiment more times influences
the differences between the predicted and experimental frequencies.

5. A fair coin and an unbiased dice are thrown at the same time. A score is
then calculated using the following rules:
• if the coin shows a head, you double the score shown on the dice;
• if the coin shows a tail, you subtract 1 from the score on the dice.
(a) Use a two-way table to show all the possible scores.
(b) Draw up a table showing the theoretical probabilities for the various
scores.

145
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A
6.4

(c) If the coin and the dice are thrown 120 times, how many times would
you expect to obtain each score?
(d) Conduct an experiment and compare your experimental results with
your answers to part (c).

6. A dice with 4 faces has one blue, one green, one red and one yellow face.
Five pupils did an experiment to investigate whether the dice was biased or
not.
The following table shows the data they collected.

Pupil's Name Number of Throws Face Landed On

Red Blue Green Yellow
Peter 20 9 7 2 2
Caryl 60 23 20 8 9
Shana 250 85 90 36 39
Keith 40 15 15 6 4
Paul 150 47 54 23 26

(a) Which pupil's data is most likely to give the best estimate of the
probability of getting each colour on the dice? Explain your answer.

The pupils collected all the data together.

Number of Throws Face Landed On

Red Blue Green Yellow
520 179 186 75 80

(b) Consider the data. Write down whether you think the dice is biased or
unbiased, and explain your answer.
(c) From the data, work out the probability of the dice landing on the
blue face.
(d) From the data work out the probability of the dice landing on the
green face.
(KS3/95/Ma/Levels 5-7/P1)

146
 MEP Y9 Practice Book A

7. Some pupils threw 3 fair dice. They recorded how many times the numbers
on the dice were the same.

Name Number Results

of throws all different 2 the same all the same

Morgan 40 26 12 2
Sue 140 81 56 3
Zenta 20 10 10 0
Ali 100 54 42 4

(a) Write the name of the pupil whose data are most likely to give the best
estimate of the probability of getting each result. Explain your answer.

(b) This table shows the pupils' results collected together:

Number Results

of throws all different 2 the same all the same

300 171 120 9

Use these data to estimate the probability of throwing numbers that are
all different.

(c) The theoretical probability of each result is shown below:

all different 2 the same all the same

5 5 1
Probability
9 12 36

Use these probabilities to calculate, for 300 throws, how many times
you would theoretically expect to get each result. Copy and complete
the table below.

Number Results

of throws all different 2 the same all the same

300 ........ ........ ........

(d) Explain why the pupils' results are not the same as the theoretical
results.
(KS3/98/Ma/Tier 5-7/P2)

147