GLOBAL WARMING

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of Earth's near-surface air and oceans since the mid-
20th century and its projected continuation. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global surface temperature increased 0.74 ± 0.18 °C
(1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the 20th century. Most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of the 20th
century has been caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which result from human activity
such as the burning of fossil fuel and deforestation. Global dimming, a result of increasing concentrations of
atmospheric aerosols that block sunlight from reaching the surface, has partially countered the effects of
warming induced by greenhouse gases.

Temperature Changes:

Evidence for warming of the climate system includes observed increases in global average air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. The most common
measure of global warming is the trend in globally averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. Expressed as a
linear trend, this temperature rose by 0.74 ± 0.18 °C over the period 1906–2005. The rate of warming over the
last half of that period was almost double that for the period as a whole (0.13 ± 0.03 °C per decade, versus
0.07 °C ± 0.02 °C per decade). The urban heat island effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 °C of
warming per decade since 1900. Temperatures in the lower troposphere have increased between 0.13 and
0.22 °C (0.22 and 0.4 °F) per decade since 1979, according to satellite temperature measurements. Temperature
is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or two thousand years before 1850, with regionally
varying fluctuations such as the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age.

External Forcing:

External forcing refers to processes external to the climate system (though not necessarily external to Earth) that
influence climate. Climate responds to several types of external forcing, such as radiative forcing due to changes
in atmospheric composition (mainly greenhouse gas concentrations), changes in solar luminosity, volcanic
eruptions, and variations in Earth's orbit around the Sun. Attribution of recent climate change focuses on the
first three types of forcing. Orbital cycles vary slowly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to
have caused the temperature changes observed in the past century.

Green House Gases:

The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the
atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was
first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. The question in terms of global warming is how
the strength of the presumed greenhouse effect changes when human activity increases the concentrations of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 °C (59 °F). The major
greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 36–70 percent of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide
(CO2), which causes 9–26 percent; methane (CH4), which causes 4–9 percent; and ozone (O3), which causes 3–7
percent. Clouds also affect the radiation balance, but they are composed of liquid water or ice and so have
different effects on radiation from water vapor.

Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs and nitrous oxide. The
concentrations of CO2 and methane have increased by 36% and 148% respectively since 1750. These levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 650,000 years, the period for which reliable data has been extracted
from ice cores. Less direct geological evidence indicates that CO 2 values higher than this were last seen about
20 million years ago. Fossil fuel burning has produced about three-quarters of the increase in CO2 from human
activity over the past 20 years. Most of the rest is due to land-use change, particularly deforestation.
Solar Variation:

Variations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes. The effect of changes in solar forcing in
recent decades is uncertain, but small, with some studies showing a slight cooling effect, while others studies
suggest a slight warming effect.

Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ways. While both increased solar activity
and increased greenhouse gases are expected to warm the troposphere, an increase in solar activity should warm
the stratosphere while an increase in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere. Observations show that
temperatures in the stratosphere have been cooling since 1979, when satellite measurements became available.
Radiosonde (weather balloon) data from the pre-satellite era show cooling since 1958, though there is greater
uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.

A related hypothesis, proposed by Henrik Svensmark, is that magnetic activity of the sun deflects cosmic rays
that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and thereby affect the climate. Other research
has found no relation between warming in recent decades and cosmic rays. The influence of cosmic rays on
cloud cover is about a factor of 100 lower than needed to explain the observed changes in clouds or to be a
significant contributor to present-day climate change.

Ecological System:

In terrestrial ecosystems, the earlier timing of spring events, and poleward and upward shifts in plant and animal
ranges, have been linked with high confidence to recent warming.Future climate change is expected to
particularly affect certain ecosystems, including tundra, mangroves, and coral reefs. It is expected that most
ecosystems will be affected by higher atmospheric CO 2 levels, combined with higher global temperatures.
Overall, it is expected that climate change will result in the extinction of many species and reduced diversity of
ecosystems.

Social Systems:

There is some evidence of regional climate change affecting systems related to human activities, including
agricultural and forestry management activities at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Future climate
change is expected to particularly affect some sectors and systems related to human activities. Low-lying coastal
systems are vulnerable to sea level rise and storm surge. Human health will be at increased risk in populations
with limited capacity to adapt to climate change. It is expected that some regions will be particularly affected by
climate change, including the Arctic, Africa, small islands, and Asian and African megadeltas. In some areas the
effects on agriculture, industry and health could be mixed, or even beneficial in certain respects, but overall it is
expected that these benefits will be outweighed by negative effects.

Politics:

Developing and developed countries have made different arguments over who should bear the burden of costs
for cutting emissions. Developing countries often concentrate on per capita emissions, that is, the total emissions
of a country divided by its population. Per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much
as ten times the average in developing countries. This is used to make the argument that the real problem of
climate change is due to the profligate and unsustainable lifestyles of those living in rich countries. On the other
hand, commentators from developed countries more often point out that it is total emissions that matter. In 2008,
developing countries made up around half of the world's total emissions of CO 2 from cement production and
fossil fuel use.

The Kyoto Protocol, which came into force in 2005, sets legally binding emission limitations for most
developed countries. Developing countries are not subject to limitations. This exemption led the U.S. and
Australia to decide not to ratify the treaty, although Australia did finally ratify the treaty in December 2007.
Public Opinion:

In 2007–2008 Gallup Polls surveyed 127 countries. Over a third of the world's population was unaware of
global warming, with people in developing countries less aware than those in developed, and those in Africa the
least aware. Of those aware, Latin America leads in belief that temperature changes are a result of human
activities while Africa, parts of Asia and the Middle East, and a few countries from the Former Soviet Union
lead in the opposite belief. In the Western world, opinions over the concept and the appropriate responses are
divided. Nick Pidgeon of Cardiff University said that "results show the different stages of engagement about
global warming on each side of the Atlantic", adding, "The debate in Europe is about what action needs to be
taken, while many in the U.S. still debate whether climate change is happening."

Etymology:

The term global warming was probably first used in its modern sense on 8 August 1975 in a science paper by
Wally Broecker in the journal Science called "Are we on the brink of a pronounced global warming?".
Broecker's choice of words was new and represented a significant recognition that the climate was warming;
previously the phrasing used by scientists was "inadvertent climate modification," because while it was
recognized humans could change the climate, no one was sure which direction it was going. The National
Academy of Sciences first used global warming in a 1979 paper called the Charney Report, it said: "if carbon
dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to
believe that these changes will be negligible." The report made a distinction between referring to surface
temperature changes as global warming, while referring to other changes caused by increased CO2 as climate
change. This distinction is still often used in science reports, with global warming meaning surface
temperatures, and climate change meaning other changes (increased storms, etc..)

Global warming became more widely popular after 1988 when NASA scientist James E. Hansen used the term
in a testimony to Congress. He said: "global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high
degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming."
His testimony was widely reported and afterward global warming was commonly used by the press and in
public discourse.
 GLOBAL WARMING

Submitted by
N.s.ambedkar rajan
pvl 10102
m.e. (vlsi design)
I year/ I sem