Trump needs to win key "rust belt" states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win reelection in 2020. Candidates like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have an advantage in appealing to these Midwestern voters due to their roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania and South Bend, Indiana, respectively. However, Trump's best shot at winning the rust belt again is if the strong economy continues and adds more jobs through the election. An economic downturn could undermine Trump's support and increase the chances of a Democratic victory.
Trump needs to win key "rust belt" states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win reelection in 2020. Candidates like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have an advantage in appealing to these Midwestern voters due to their roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania and South Bend, Indiana, respectively. However, Trump's best shot at winning the rust belt again is if the strong economy continues and adds more jobs through the election. An economic downturn could undermine Trump's support and increase the chances of a Democratic victory.
Trump needs to win key "rust belt" states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win reelection in 2020. Candidates like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have an advantage in appealing to these Midwestern voters due to their roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania and South Bend, Indiana, respectively. However, Trump's best shot at winning the rust belt again is if the strong economy continues and adds more jobs through the election. An economic downturn could undermine Trump's support and increase the chances of a Democratic victory.
Trump needs to win key "rust belt" states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to win reelection in 2020. Candidates like Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg have an advantage in appealing to these Midwestern voters due to their roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania and South Bend, Indiana, respectively. However, Trump's best shot at winning the rust belt again is if the strong economy continues and adds more jobs through the election. An economic downturn could undermine Trump's support and increase the chances of a Democratic victory.
In 2016 Donald Trump won the election, but he lost the popular vote by about 3 million. He did this due to a quirk of the electoral college. The nature of how the system is set up means that you can technically win the presidency with only 23% of the vote. Obviously, Trump is going to need more than 23% of the vote, but how much is he actually going to need, and where is he going to need it? Some states are guaranteed wins for any candidate with an “R” next to their name. For example, Trump is in no fear of losing Texas, Alabama, Alaska, or any number of other “deep red” states. Then there are some states that are pretty solidly conservative but are not necessarily guarantees. For example, Arizona. Then you have the “battleground states” these are the states that Trump will need to win at least most of to win the election. In my opinion, the states that are up for grabs between both parties are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Florida, and New Hampshire. Of these states, the ones that have a high number of electoral votes are mainly the ones in what is called the “rust belt” (Florida is also a very important state, although outside the rust belt). If Trump can win the rust belt then it would be hard to foresee a path for the democrats to get to 270 votes. So what does he have to do to win the rust belt, and who would be a tough democratic challenger to win the rust belt from?
Both Joe Biden and Mayor Pete Buttigieg have an advantage fighting for votes in the rust belt. Mayor Pete was born and raised in South Bend Indiana and is now the mayor of the town. This gives him not only the credentials to gain the trust of that block of voters, but being from the area will also probably help him to set up a grassroots campaign easier than someone from say California would. Joe Biden is from Scranton Pennsylvania. This is a town that might as well define the rust belt when he was Obama’s running mate in 2008 and 2012 one of the big reasons that he was such a good vice presidential pick for Obama is that he has a very powerful appeal to the people in towns like Scranton all across the rust belt area. Bernie Sanders, on the other hand, is from Brooklin New York and is now a senator representing Vermont, so for him to appeal to blue collar voters is going to be a little more difficult. I think that because of his platform, and the way that he has branded himself he still would be able to appeal to those voters, but he does not have the immediate ethos appeal that the two previous candidates do. Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, may struggle to win those ever important blue collar voters. Over her long and illustrious career in politics, she has been painted as somewhat of an east coast elite, although she was born in Oklahoma. No matter who his opponent is Trump has one major key to winning the rust belt...the economy. If the economy stays strong, and industry sectors are able to continue to add jobs over the course of the election then a lot of votes will swing the republicans way. Many people are economic determinists, meaning that so long as the economy is good they are willing to overlook any other things about a candidate. If the economy turns sour, then I think that the current president may soon become “the former president”, if you catch my drift...
