TIPO DE CAMBIO / 2017 (BANGUAT)

PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
FECHA ER
(PM) (PMP)
1/1/2017 7.52213 - -
1/2/2017 7.52213 - -
1/3/2017 7.54656 - -
1/4/2017 7.56079 - -
1/5/2017 7.55235 7.53790 7.54492
1/6/2017 7.54267 7.54546 7.55070
1/7/2017 7.54267 7.55059 7.54959
1/8/2017 7.54267 7.54962 7.54642
1/9/2017 7.53382 7.54509 7.54364
1/10/2017 7.52624 7.54046 7.53913
1/11/2017 7.53272 7.53635 7.53344
1/12/2017 7.53074 7.53386 7.53199
1/13/2017 7.53428 7.53088 7.53074
1/14/2017 7.53428 7.53100 7.53210
1/15/2017 7.53428 7.53301 7.53342
1/16/2017 7.54601 7.53340 7.53393
1/17/2017 7.54821 7.53721 7.53897
1/18/2017 7.54003 7.54070 7.54337
1/19/2017 7.53330 7.54213 7.54311
1/20/2017 7.52503 7.54189 7.53957
1/21/2017 7.52503 7.53664 7.53283
1/22/2017 7.52503 7.53085 7.52818
1/23/2017 7.51842 7.52710 7.52586
1/24/2017 7.50753 7.52338 7.52239
1/25/2017 7.49756 7.51900 7.51605
1/26/2017 7.48319 7.51214 7.50747
1/27/2017 7.47650 7.50168 7.49589
1/28/2017 7.47650 7.49120 7.48582
1/29/2017 7.47650 7.48344 7.47994
1/30/2017 7.47461 7.47817 7.47717
1/31/2017 7.47444 7.47603 7.47574
2/1/2017 7.47170 7.47551 7.47511
2/2/2017 7.46089 7.47431 7.47358
2/3/2017 7.46017 7.47041 7.46822
2/4/2017 7.46017 7.46680 7.46412
2/5/2017 7.46017 7.46323 7.46147
2/6/2017 7.44707 7.46035 7.46024
2/7/2017 7.43918 7.45690 7.45493
2/8/2017 7.43764 7.45165 7.44784
2/9/2017 7.43727 7.44602 7.44224
2/10/2017 7.43595 7.44029 7.43874
2/11/2017 7.43595 7.43751 7.43701
2/12/2017 7.43595 7.43670 7.43638
2/13/2017 7.42943 7.43628 7.43608
2/14/2017 7.42132 7.43432 7.43334
2/15/2017 7.41644 7.43066 7.42814
2/16/2017 7.40840 7.42579 7.42245
2/17/2017 7.39213 7.41890 7.41550
2/18/2017 7.39213 7.40957 7.40479
2/19/2017 7.39213 7.40228 7.39782
2/20/2017 7.38112 7.39620 7.39376
2/21/2017 7.37878 7.38938 7.38773
2/22/2017 7.37149 7.38604 7.38349
2/23/2017 7.36530 7.38088 7.37767
2/24/2017 7.35214 7.37417 7.37144
2/25/2017 7.35214 7.36693 7.36262
2/26/2017 7.35214 7.36027 7.35671
2/27/2017 7.35441 7.35543 7.35346
2/28/2017 7.36852 7.35271 7.35305
3/1/2017 7.37503 7.35680 7.35937
3/2/2017 7.37878 7.36253 7.36666
3/3/2017 7.37393 7.36919 7.37317
3/4/2017 7.37393 7.37407 7.37506
3/5/2017 7.37393 7.37542 7.37501
3/6/2017 7.37390 7.37514 7.37442
3/7/2017 7.37579 7.37392 7.37392
3/8/2017 7.37684 7.37439 7.37467
3/9/2017 7.37335 7.37512 7.37565
3/10/2017 7.37636 7.37497 7.37494
3/11/2017 7.37636 7.37559 7.37550
3/12/2017 7.37636 7.37573 7.37581
3/13/2017 7.36932 7.37561 7.37606
3/14/2017 7.37057 7.37460 7.37354
3/15/2017 7.37397 7.37315 7.37193
3/16/2017 7.37024 7.37256 7.37226
3/17/2017 7.36039 7.37103 7.37133
3/18/2017 7.36039 7.36879 7.36708
3/19/2017 7.36039 7.36625 7.36372
3/20/2017 7.34393 7.36285 7.36138
3/21/2017 7.33606 7.35628 7.35381
3/22/2017 7.33535 7.35019 7.34572
3/23/2017 7.34000 7.34393 7.33978
3/24/2017 7.34394 7.33884 7.33821
3/25/2017 7.34394 7.33884 7.34025
3/26/2017 7.34394 7.34081 7.34229
3/27/2017 7.34091 7.34296 7.34355
3/28/2017 7.33534 7.34318 7.34273
3/29/2017 7.33480 7.34103 7.33959
3/30/2017 7.33666 7.33875 7.33710
3/31/2017 7.33976 7.33693 7.33626
4/1/2017 7.33976 7.33664 7.33740
4/2/2017 7.33976 7.33775 7.33864
4/3/2017 7.33747 7.33899 7.33945
4/4/2017 7.33918 7.33919 7.33884
4/5/2017 7.33871 7.33904 7.33884
4/6/2017 7.33955 7.33878 7.33871
4/7/2017 7.33803 7.33873 7.33902
4/8/2017 7.33803 7.33887 7.33874
4/9/2017 7.33803 7.33858 7.33840
4/10/2017 7.33827 7.33841 7.33818
4/11/2017 7.33618 7.33809 7.33813
4/12/2017 7.33862 7.33763 7.33736
4/13/2017 7.33862 7.33778 7.33776
4/14/2017 7.33862 7.33792 7.33810
4/15/2017 7.33862 7.33801 7.33838
4/16/2017 7.33862 7.33862 7.33862
4/17/2017 7.33426 7.33862 7.33862
4/18/2017 7.33466 7.33753 7.33688
4/19/2017 7.33283 7.33654 7.33573
4/20/2017 7.33033 7.33509 7.33424
4/21/2017 7.33366 7.33302 7.33234
4/22/2017 7.33366 7.33287 7.33260
4/23/2017 7.33366 7.33262 7.33291
4/24/2017 7.33548 7.33283 7.33333
4/25/2017 7.33940 7.33412 7.33439
4/26/2017 7.34179 7.33555 7.33650
4/27/2017 7.34177 7.33758 7.33900
4/28/2017 7.33885 7.33961 7.34067
4/29/2017 7.33885 7.34045 7.34037
4/30/2017 7.33885 7.34032 7.33973
5/1/2017 7.33885 7.33958 7.33914
5/2/2017 7.33900 7.33885 7.33885
5/3/2017 7.34071 7.33889 7.33891
5/4/2017 7.34121 7.33935 7.33964
5/5/2017 7.33870 7.33994 7.34038
5/6/2017 7.33870 7.33991 7.33989
5/7/2017 7.33870 7.33983 7.33940
5/8/2017 7.33502 7.33933 7.33895
5/9/2017 7.33600 7.33778 7.33723
5/10/2017 7.33770 7.33711 7.33652
5/11/2017 7.33339 7.33686 7.33675
5/12/2017 7.33293 7.33553 7.33537
5/13/2017 7.33293 7.33501 7.33433
5/14/2017 7.33293 7.33424 7.33350
5/15/2017 7.33294 7.33305 7.33298
5/16/2017 7.33422 7.33293 7.33293
5/17/2017 7.33551 7.33326 7.33345
5/18/2017 7.33178 7.33390 7.33435
5/19/2017 7.33552 7.33361 7.33350
5/20/2017 7.33552 7.33426 7.33427
5/21/2017 7.33552 7.33458 7.33477
5/22/2017 7.33270 7.33459 7.33515
5/23/2017 7.33503 7.33482 7.33439
5/24/2017 7.33835 7.33469 7.33448
5/25/2017 7.34186 7.33540 7.33594
5/26/2017 7.34816 7.33699 7.33853
5/27/2017 7.34816 7.34085 7.34300
5/28/2017 7.34816 7.34413 7.34592
5/29/2017 7.35153 7.34659 7.34753
5/30/2017 7.34879 7.34900 7.34951
5/31/2017 7.35264 7.34916 7.34942
6/1/2017 7.35717 7.35028 7.35082
6/2/2017 7.35864 7.35253 7.35357
6/3/2017 7.35864 7.35431 7.35601
 6/4/2017 7.35864 7.35677 7.35775
6/5/2017 7.35571 7.35827 7.35849
6/6/2017 7.35089 7.35791 7.35747
6/7/2017 7.34727 7.35597 7.35466
6/8/2017 7.34751 7.35313 7.35118
6/9/2017 7.34733 7.35035 7.34893
6/10/2017 7.34733 7.34825 7.34773
6/11/2017 7.34733 7.34736 7.34736
6/12/2017 7.34406 7.34738 7.34735
6/13/2017 7.34202 7.34651 7.34602
6/14/2017 7.34327 7.34519 7.34423
6/15/2017 7.33945 7.34417 7.34346
6/16/2017 7.34268 7.34220 7.34157
6/17/2017 7.34268 7.34186 7.34176
6/18/2017 7.34268 7.34202 7.34209
6/19/2017 7.34180 7.34187 7.34236
6/20/2017 7.33821 7.34246 7.34233
6/21/2017 7.33825 7.34134 7.34063
6/22/2017 7.33689 7.34024 7.33939
6/23/2017 7.33708 7.33879 7.33805
6/24/2017 7.33708 7.33761 7.33737
6/25/2017 7.33708 7.33733 7.33716
6/26/2017 7.33406 7.33703 7.33706
6/27/2017 7.33442 7.33633 7.33587
6/28/2017 7.33600 7.33566 7.33511
6/29/2017 7.33516 7.33539 7.33525
6/30/2017 7.33516 7.33491 7.33515
7/1/2017 7.33516 7.33519 7.33525
7/2/2017 7.33516 7.33537 7.33524
7/3/2017 7.33516 7.33516 7.33516
7/4/2017 7.33123 7.33516 7.33516
7/5/2017 7.33135 7.33418 7.33359
7/6/2017 7.33214 7.33323 7.33246
7/7/2017 7.32816 7.33247 7.33202
7/8/2017 7.32816 7.33072 7.33030
7/9/2017 7.32816 7.32995 7.32928
7/10/2017 7.32629 7.32916 7.32856
7/11/2017 7.31921 7.32769 7.32741
7/12/2017 7.31622 7.32546 7.32402
7/13/2017 7.30393 7.32247 7.32033
7/14/2017 7.29483 7.31641 7.31291
7/15/2017 7.29483 7.30855 7.30428
7/16/2017 7.29483 7.30245 7.29879
7/17/2017 7.28746 7.29711 7.29574
7/18/2017 7.28906 7.29299 7.29188
7/19/2017 7.29304 7.29155 7.29031
7/20/2017 7.29395 7.29110 7.29091
7/21/2017 7.29349 7.29088 7.29205
7/22/2017 7.29349 7.29239 7.29310
7/23/2017 7.29349 7.29349 7.29354
7/24/2017 7.29298 7.29361 7.29354
7/25/2017 7.29003 7.29336 7.29329
7/26/2017 7.29198 7.29250 7.29195
7/27/2017 7.29042 7.29212 7.29175
7/28/2017 7.28981 7.29135 7.29107
7/29/2017 7.28981 7.29056 7.29045
7/30/2017 7.28981 7.29051 7.29015
7/31/2017 7.28235 7.28996 7.28987
8/1/2017 7.27849 7.28795 7.28683
8/2/2017 7.27341 7.28512 7.28304
8/3/2017 7.27076 7.28102 7.27836
8/4/2017 7.27372 7.27625 7.27426
8/5/2017 7.27372 7.27410 7.27325
8/6/2017 7.27372 7.27290 7.27310
8/7/2017 7.27189 7.27298 7.27342
8/8/2017 7.27228 7.27326 7.27299
8/9/2017 7.27383 7.27290 7.27260
8/10/2017 7.27541 7.27293 7.27297
8/11/2017 7.27345 7.27335 7.27396
8/12/2017 7.27345 7.27374 7.27400
8/13/2017 7.27345 7.27404 7.27388
8/14/2017 7.26970 7.27394 7.27365
8/15/2017 7.26970 7.27251 7.27195
8/16/2017 7.26986 7.27158 7.27083
8/17/2017 7.27004 7.27068 7.27014
8/18/2017 7.27317 7.26983 7.26988
8/19/2017 7.27317 7.27069 7.27122
8/20/2017 7.27317 7.27156 7.27221
8/21/2017 7.26935 7.27239 7.27286
8/22/2017 7.27247 7.27222 7.27164
8/23/2017 7.27799 7.27204 7.27174
8/24/2017 7.27505 7.27325 7.27412
8/25/2017 7.27758 7.27372 7.27485
8/26/2017 7.27758 7.27577 7.27639
8/27/2017 7.27758 7.27705 7.27712
8/28/2017 7.28240 7.27695 7.27733
8/29/2017 7.28583 7.27879 7.27951
8/30/2017 7.28789 7.28085 7.28233
8/31/2017 7.29086 7.28343 7.28514
9/1/2017 7.29640 7.28675 7.28812
9/2/2017 7.29640 7.29025 7.29198
9/3/2017 7.29640 7.29289 7.29444
9/4/2017 7.29176 7.29502 7.29585
9/5/2017 7.29697 7.29524 7.29454
9/6/2017 7.29204 7.29538 7.29524
9/7/2017 7.29230 7.29429 7.29390
9/8/2017 7.29239 7.29327 7.29310
9/9/2017 7.29239 7.29343 7.29275
9/10/2017 7.29239 7.29228 7.29234
9/11/2017 7.29129 7.29237 7.29238
9/12/2017 7.29200 7.29212 7.29195
9/13/2017 7.29201 7.29202 7.29190
9/14/2017 7.29227 7.29192 7.29190
9/15/2017 7.29227 7.29189 7.29204
9/16/2017 7.29227 7.29214 7.29219
9/17/2017 7.29227 7.29221 7.29224
 9/18/2017 7.29292 7.29227 7.29227
9/19/2017 7.29348 7.29243 7.29253
9/20/2017 7.29387 7.29274 7.29295
9/21/2017 7.29464 7.29314 7.29340
9/22/2017 7.30357 7.29373 7.29401
9/23/2017 7.30357 7.29639 7.29794
9/24/2017 7.30357 7.29891 7.30081
9/25/2017 7.31431 7.30134 7.30268
9/26/2017 7.32164 7.30626 7.30787
9/27/2017 7.32884 7.31077 7.31402
9/28/2017 7.33372 7.31709 7.32125
9/29/2017 7.34427 7.32463 7.32790
9/30/2017 7.34427 7.33212 7.33576
10/1/2017 7.34427 7.33778 7.34062
10/2/2017 7.34988 7.34163 7.34322
10/3/2017 7.34364 7.34567 7.34651
10/4/2017 7.34327 7.34552 7.34570
10/5/2017 7.34192 7.34527 7.34480
10/6/2017 7.34378 7.34468 7.34347
10/7/2017 7.34378 7.34315 7.34311
10/8/2017 7.34378 7.34319 7.34336
10/9/2017 7.34027 7.34332 7.34359
10/10/2017 7.34417 7.34290 7.34238
10/11/2017 7.34409 7.34300 7.34288
10/12/2017 7.34409 7.34308 7.34332
10/13/2017 7.34127 7.34316 7.34372
10/14/2017 7.34127 7.34341 7.34297
10/15/2017 7.34127 7.34268 7.34212
10/16/2017 7.34129 7.34198 7.34155
10/17/2017 7.34078 7.34128 7.34128
10/18/2017 7.34422 7.34115 7.34108
10/19/2017 7.34321 7.34189 7.34231
10/20/2017 7.34321 7.34238 7.34284
10/21/2017 7.34321 7.34286 7.34317
10/22/2017 7.34321 7.34346 7.34331
10/23/2017 7.34261 7.34321 7.34321
10/24/2017 7.34331 7.34306 7.34297
10/25/2017 7.34586 7.34309 7.34307
10/26/2017 7.34622 7.34375 7.34418
10/27/2017 7.34592 7.34450 7.34517
10/28/2017 7.34592 7.34533 7.34574
10/29/2017 7.34592 7.34598 7.34597
10/30/2017 7.34387 7.34600 7.34595
10/31/2017 7.34271 7.34541 7.34510
11/1/2017 7.34271 7.34461 7.34402
11/2/2017 7.34245 7.34380 7.34326
11/3/2017 7.34134 7.34294 7.34272
11/4/2017 7.34134 7.34230 7.34208
11/5/2017 7.34134 7.34196 7.34170
11/6/2017 7.33708 7.34162 7.34145
11/7/2017 7.33413 7.34028 7.33964
11/8/2017 7.33237 7.33847 7.33718
11/9/2017 7.33050 7.33623 7.33474
11/10/2017 7.32413 7.33352 7.33245
11/11/2017 7.32413 7.33028 7.32869
11/12/2017 7.32413 7.32778 7.32623
11/13/2017 7.32102 7.32572 7.32477
11/14/2017 7.32061 7.32335 7.32289
11/15/2017 7.32337 7.32247 7.32179
11/16/2017 7.32168 7.32228 7.32215
11/17/2017 7.32897 7.32167 7.32191
11/18/2017 7.32897 7.32366 7.32483
11/19/2017 7.32897 7.32575 7.32695
11/20/2017 7.32501 7.32715 7.32824
11/21/2017 7.33049 7.32798 7.32739
11/22/2017 7.33504 7.32836 7.32839
11/23/2017 7.33309 7.32988 7.33106
11/24/2017 7.33525 7.33091 7.33235
11/25/2017 7.33525 7.33347 7.33408
11/26/2017 7.33525 7.33466 7.33480
11/27/2017 7.33841 7.33471 7.33503
11/28/2017 7.34004 7.33604 7.33651
11/29/2017 7.34178 7.33724 7.33811
11/30/2017 7.34136 7.33887 7.33993
12/1/2017 7.33996 7.34040 7.34093
12/2/2017 7.33996 7.34079 7.34075
12/3/2017 7.33996 7.34077 7.34042
12/4/2017 7.33963 7.34031 7.34010
12/5/2017 7.34028 7.33988 7.33983
12/6/2017 7.34053 7.33996 7.33999
12/7/2017 7.33730 7.34010 7.34022
12/8/2017 7.33879 7.33944 7.33910
12/9/2017 7.33879 7.33923 7.33884
12/10/2017 7.33879 7.33885 7.33867
12/11/2017 7.33766 7.33842 7.33864
12/12/2017 7.33865 7.33851 7.33834
12/13/2017 7.34074 7.33847 7.33840
12/14/2017 7.33676 7.33896 7.33930
12/15/2017 7.33950 7.33845 7.33842
12/16/2017 7.33950 7.33891 7.33884
12/17/2017 7.33950 7.33913 7.33908
12/18/2017 7.33862 7.33882 7.33923
12/19/2017 7.33874 7.33928 7.33915
12/20/2017 7.34152 7.33909 7.33893
12/21/2017 7.34168 7.33960 7.33990
12/22/2017 7.34253 7.34014 7.34074
12/23/2017 7.34253 7.34112 7.34169
12/24/2017 7.34253 7.34207 7.34226
12/25/2017 7.34253 7.34232 7.34245
12/26/2017 7.34430 7.34253 7.34253
12/27/2017 7.34413 7.34297 7.34324
12/28/2017 7.34477 7.34337 7.34370
12/29/2017 7.34477 7.34393 7.34426
12/30/2017 7.34477 7.34449 7.34460
12/31/2017 7.34477 7.34461 7.34471
1/1/2018 - 7.34477 7.34477
 PRONOSTICOS

FECHA PM PMP
1/1/2018 7.34477 7.34477
 IPC / 2017 (BANGUAT)
PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
MES IPC
(PM) (PMP)
Enero 127.49 - -
Febrero 127.92 - -
Marzo 128.23 - -
Abril 128.56 - -
Mayo 128.96 128.05 128.23
Junio 130.07 128.42 128.59
Julio 132.04 128.96 129.25
Agosto 131.65 129.91 130.49
Septiembre 130.93 130.68 131.18
Octubre 131.64 131.17 131.28
Noviembre 132.77 131.57 131.47
Diciembre 134.03 131.75 131.95
Enero / 2018 - 132.34 132.86
 RITMO INFLACIONARIO / 2017 (BANGUAT)
PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO
MES RI
(PM) (PMP)
Enero 3.83 - -
Febrero 3.96 - -
Marzo 4.00 - -
Abril 4.09 - -
Mayo 3.93 3.97 4.01
Junio 4.36 4.00 4.00
Julio 5.22 4.10 4.14
Agosto 4.72 4.40 4.59
Septiembre 4.36 4.56 4.72
Octubre 4.20 4.67 4.64
Noviembre 4.69 4.63 4.45
Diciembre 5.68 4.49 4.48
Enero / 2018 - 4.73 4.96
Una compañía presenta en el siguiente tabulado el reporte de ventas correspondiente al año 2009:

MES VENTAS PM (3) PM (6)

Enero 80 - -
Febrero 90 - -
Marzo 85 - -
Abril 70 85 -
Mayo 80 82 -
Junio 105 78 -
Julio 100 85 85
Agosto 105 95 88
Septiembre 100 103 91
Octubre 105 102 93
Noviembre 100 103 99
Diciembre 150 102 103
Enero / 2018 - 118 110

Teniendo en cuenta los datos anteriores, se debe calcular el pronóstico para el mes de enero de 201
mediante la técnica de promedio móvil utilizando:
1. Un período de 3 meses.
2. Un período de 6 meses.

El objetivo consiste en identificar con cuál de los dos períodos del pronóstico se obtiene mayor precisión
compararse con las ventas reales del reporte.

R/ El periodo que representa mayor concordancia con las ventas reales es el de tres meses.
e al año 2009:

mes de enero de 2010

ene mayor precisión al

s el de tres meses.
Un almacén ha determinado que el mejor pronóstico se encuentra determinado con 4 datos y
utilizando los siguientes factores de ponderación (40%, 30%, 20% y 10%). Determinar el
pronóstico para el quinto período.

Período Unidades Ponderacion

1 100,000 1
2 90,000 2
3 105,000 3
4 95,000 4

X=
R/ Podemos así determinar que 97,500 de ventas para el quinto período es
el pronóstico
equivalente a 97,500 unidades.
rminado con 4 datos y
10%). Determinar el

quinto período es