Doing Resource and Risk

Assessment with GeoX

2 day course, PPM Workshop

Phnom Penh, Feb 26 - 27 2003

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 1

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
GeoX: Assessing Play &Prospect
Risks, Resources & Value (RRV)

SHARED
DATA

> Integrated, interactive decision-oriented analysis

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 2
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Why GeoX?
• Provides a complete model-based RRV-assessment
framework that supports integration of data and
judgement
• Focuses decisions in the context of the relevant
uncertainties and risks
• Easy to use, intuitive workflow – day one value
• Unique documention functions – assures quality and
promotes learning
• A common data base facilitates rapid access, sharing
and re-use of data

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 3

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Course Objectives &
Approach
• Master the mechanics of using GeoX
– Hands-on training
• Be able to estimate parameters, verify & interpret
results
– Resource and geotechnical risk assessment with gProspectR and
gPlayR
– Aggregation
• Review exploration decision process workflows and
practices
– Best practice and system administration tools
– Active discussion and dialog

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 4

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 General training outline
Day 1 – Basic prospect resource and risk assessments
– Standard volumetric and risk input
– Different ways of modeling volumes
– Aggregation
– Best practice, configuration and system tools

Day 2 – Basic play resource and risk assessments

– Play assessment
– Calibrating and framing prospect analyses

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 5

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Day 1 – Resource and Risk
evaluation with GeoX
09:00 Introduction to gProspectR; Resource and Risk assessment
10:00 Case A1: Introduction and “walk-through”
10:30 Hands On Case 1: The A1 prospect
11:30 Extended volumetrics
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Hands On Case 2: The BG prospect
14:00 A CNPA prospect :Presentation
14:30 Hands On Case 3: The CNPA prospect
15:30 Introduction to gAggregateProspect
16:30 Best practice and system administration tools

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 6

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Day 2 – Resource and Risk
evaluation with GeoX
09:00 Review of Day 1; Q&A; revisit CNPA prospect
10:00 Introduction to play assessment with gPlayR
10:30 Case Upper Cretaceous Play: “walk-through”
11:00 Hands On Case 4: The UCret play
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Integrated prospect and play analysis
14:00 A CNPA play :Presentation
14:30 Hands On Case 5: The CNPA play
15:30 Additional GeoX RR functions and features
16:30 Review and evaluation

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 7

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX – Overview
GeoX
gPlayR gProspectR gFullCycle gDiscovery Data from e.g.
Spreadsheets
gProfile Irap
Eclipse
-Analysis Export Mbal
and Import DB gPortfolio Emperical
databases
-Reporting Best Practice
documents
Ready-made GeoX
templates
gAggregate gScenario gField
Excel, Spotfire etc.

D Common GeoDatabase for sharing and linking information

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 8

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Key input to gPlayR, gProspectR and gFullCycle
G&G data, risks etc G&G data, risks etc Course focus
Volumetric Volumetric
model model
Rec. Resources
Size by rank
Costs, taxes, prices etc
Rec. Resources
2-level 2-level Full Cycle
Play/Prospect risks Dry hole risk Decision tree
risk model risk model prospect NPV
valuation IRR
model EMV

gPlayR gProspectR gFullCycle

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 9

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 A1 Prospect - Demonstration Script

RR assessment using gProspectR

– Access from GeoX database
– Inputs
– Documentation
– Results
– Sensitivity

Value assessment using gFullCycle (short)

– Inputs
– Results

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 10

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Prospect Assessment Basics
Basic Volumetrics
– Main formulas for quantitative assessment
– Main input
– Quantifying uncertainty
Basic Risking
– Why do we risk plays and prospects?
– Risk factors
– Quantifying risk

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 11

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Basic Oil & Gas Volumetrics
Rock “Fluids” Hydrocarbon Pore Volume
(HCPV under reservoir conditions)

Hydrocarbons-in-Place
(HCIP under surface conditions)
Analog +
engineering/economics Recoverable oil/ gas

Basic volumetric equation

HCIP = GRV • Net/Gross • Ø • HC saturation • Fill • (1/FVF)
Recoverable Hydrocarbons = HCIP * Recovery Factor

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 12

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Quantifying uncertainty

• Distributions
• Monte Carlo Simulations
• Correlations

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 13

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Statistical distributions in
GeoX
Probability density Function
(PDF)- Probability of occurrence

Inverse Cumulative Distribution

Function (ICDF) - Probability of value or >

Mean(arithmetic average)0
Mode (most likely) Median(50% bigger /50% smaller)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 14

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Monte Carlo Simulation
applied to the Volumetric
Formula
Input X X X X X
Area Thickness Porosity Sh FVF Recovery

Random
Calculation Number
Generator
random result combinations

Cumulative Cum. Prob.

Probability of Value or More Value
100
100
95

Output %
5
0
0
MEAN
Recoverable Volumes

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 15

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Correlation between
parameters
Modeling dependency between parameters using
Correlation Coefficients in Monte Carlo:

– Some parameters are positively dependent (e.g. porosity

and recovery factor)
– Other parameters are negatively dependent (e.g. area of
closure and thichkness, e.g limited sand influx)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 16

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Risk and Uncertainty in
Prospect Exploration
Risk Uncertainty
- Discrete events - Range of possible outcomes

chance of success (COS)

Range of possible outcomes:
30% - Distribution of HC volumes
risk

70% No significant hydrocarbons (dry)

chance of failure
[Dry Hole Risk = 1 – COS]

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 17

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Basic Prospect Risk Model
Separate prospect risk factors into (regional) play level risks and
(local) prospect level risks

conditional prospect probability

P(Prospect|Play)*
Psuccess =
marginal play probability P(Prospect|Play) X P(Play)
P(Play)

Pfailure (dry hole) =

(play is OK but local risks caused failure) 1- Psuccess

(play is not functioning!) (* read as prospect chance of success given that the play is successful)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 18

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GK Default Risk Factors

PLAY LEVEL FACTORS PROSPECT LEVEL FACTORS

• R Reservoir • R Reservoir
• T Trap • T Trap
• S Source • S Source

P(Play) = R*T*S P(Prospect|Play) = R*T*S

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 19

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: The A1 Prospect

A1 is a faulted anticline oil prospect. The Upper Cretaceous Matask

Formation turbidite sandstone reservoir (2500 m) is sealed by adjacent
siltstones. Water depth is 70 m.
Oil is assumed to have originated from the prolific Middle Jurassic shales
migrating out of the thermally mature bounding basin. There is considerable
uncertainty regarding the sealing status of the fault. However, due to the
potential presence of significant clay minerals, reservoir quality is also a
major uncertainty.
CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 20
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1 workflow
• Log on to GeoX
• Open GeoXplorer
• Create A1 prospect in Training basin and Upper Cretaceous
play
• Create analysis of A1 prospect
• Edit inputs
• Save
• Calc
• Review results
• Print

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 21

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 3 main GeoX interaction
components
• Main Menu (Launcher)
– Opened when you log on to
GeoX
– Used to launch GeoXplorer and
control analyses
• GeoXplorer
– Used to access and create
analyses
– Launches tools
• Tool Notebook
– This is where you enter your
estimates and get your results

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 22

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX Launcher (main menu
bar)

Command Menu
Buttons Commands

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 23

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer = Window to the
database
• Create analyses
• Access analyses
• View database by
GeoSystem, Block,
Security group… etc
• Search for analyses
• Generate reports

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 24

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer – Create New
Basin Folder
• Point to the database
icon (top level) on the
left-hand side of
GeoXplorer
• Right-click mouse
• Select New Basin

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 25

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer – Create New
Play Folder
• Point to the basin
folder on the left-
hand side of
GeoXplorer
• Right-click mouse
• Select New Play

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 26

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer – Create New
Prospect Folder
• Point to the play
folder on the left-
hand side of
GeoXplorer
• Right-click mouse
• Select New Prospect
to create a new
prospect folder

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 27

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer – Create New
Prospect Analysis
• Point to the prospect
folder on the left-
hand side of
GeoXplorer
• Right-click mouse
• Select New prospect
analysis

⇒ this launches the

Tool Notebook

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 28

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoXplorer Hierarchy
• Several analyses
attached to the
same prospect
folder

Analysis attached • To open an

to Prospect Folder existing analysis,
select, and right
Basin Folder click
Play Folder
Prospect Folder

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 29

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Tool notebook interface
Volume input page Set-up Parameters sub-page

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 30

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Parameter Input Panel (PIP)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 31

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Parameter Input Panel (PIP)
for risk factors

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 32

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Documentation of parameter
input
All estimates are based on
information and
assumptions!

Recording this reference /

justification data is critical for
internal reviews and updates
The best place to store this data
is embedded in the
assessment in an organized
database structure

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 33

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Documentation of parameter
input
Document your input:

• free text justification

• data source (reports,

well-data files etc.)

• attachments (as shown)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 34

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: The A1 Prospect

Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gProspectR!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 35
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Prospect - Input
Your estimates of the volume parameters are:
Parameter [units] Distribution Min (or Lo) Mode Max (or Hi)
Area of Closure [km2] lognormLoHi 13.2 26.2
Reservoir Thickness [m] triangular 91.4 118.9 152.4
Geometric Factor [decimal] constant 0.65
Net/Gross Ratio [decimal] uniform 0.66 0.74
Porosity [decimal] triangular 0.11 0.16 0.22
Trap Fill [decimal] triangular 0.45 0.55 0.65
Oil Saturation [decimal] triangular 0.5 0.65 0.8
Recovery Factor Oil [decimal] triangular 0.3 0.45 0.6
Recovery Factor Assoc. Gas [decimal] triangular 0.4 0.55 0.7
Oil Form. Factor (Bo) [m3/Sm3] triangular 1.06 1.4 2
Gas Oil Ratio [Sm3/Sm3] triangular 60 100 180

The initial risk assessment review has proposed the following estimates:
Risk factor P(play) P(prospect | play)
HC Source [%] 100
Migration [%] 100
Timing [%] 90
Reservoir Presence [%] 90
Trap [%] 90
Effective porosity [%] 65
HC accumulation [%] 80

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 36

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1 workflow
• Log on to GeoX
• Open GeoXplorer
• Create A1 prospect in Training basin and Upper Cretaceous
play
• Create analysis of A1 prospect
• Edit inputs
• Save
• Calc
• Review results
• Print

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 37

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Prospect – Results
Recoverable Resources

• Accumulation Size
(unrisked = success case)

• Conditional prospect potential

(if Play is proven)

• Unconditional Prospect Potential

(includes play risk)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 38

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results –
Recoverable Resources

green light = simulation run

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 39

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results –
Risked Recoverable Resources

green light = simulation run

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 40

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results –
Resource Diagram

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 41

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results –
In-Place Volumes & Yield Factors

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 42

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results –
Risk Summary

P(Play) = 0.90

Dry Hole Risk = 1- {P(Play) * P(Prospect}Play)}

= 1- {0.90 * 0.525}
= 1 - 0.472 = 0.528

this is 100% oil case so P(HC) = P(Oil)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 43

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 1: A1 Results
- Recoverable Resource Variance Diagram

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 44

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Any questions?

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 45

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
A closer look at gross rock
volume estimates

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 46

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Gross Rock Volume – A Review
1. Direct GRV Entry

2. Area/Thickness Estimation Method

GRV = Area (A) X Thickness (h) X Geometric Factor
Gross Pay Volume = GRV X % Fill

3. Depth vs Area Method

Depth (ft) vs Volume (1000 ac-ft)
4500
Depth vs Volume 4550
or top reservoir
Gas/Oil
Depth vs Area Top Reservoir + Thickness 4600
or Oil/Water
Depth vs Bottom Reservoir + Thickness 4650
or base reservoir Spill Point
4700
Depth vs Top & Base Reservoir
4750
0 150 300 450 600 750
CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 47
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Direct Trap GRV

h = vertical closure = 600m

Gross reservoir thickness = 200m
(TST = TVT @ 5 degree dip)
Volume (V= 1/3 πr2h) = 51.7 E6m3
2000
(from computer mapping packages)

2200

2400 better models more

complex trap geometries
2600
vertical exaggeration 20/1 r = radius = 9 km

Estimation Method
Area* Thickness * geometric factor
= 254.3 * 200 * .93 = 47.3 E6m3 especially where the trap surface
slope varies with depth

(note both approaches use trap fill % to model HC contacts)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 48

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Depth vs Volume GRV
Depth vs Volume (V= 1/3 πr2h)

h = vertical closure = 600m

Gross reservoir thickness = 200m Depth V1 V1 V2 V2 GRV GRV
(TST = TVT @ 5 degree dip) m Interval Cum Interval Cum Interval Cum
2000 2000 0 0 0
10.3 0 10.3
2200 2200 10.3 0 10.3
gas
22.8 5.9 16.9
oil
2400 33.1 5.9 27.2
2400 40.4 15.9 24.5
oil
water 2600 73.5 21.8 51.7
2600
vertical exaggeration 20/1 r = radius = 9 km

allows explicit modeling of HC contacts

(modify depth/volume integration – set-up
for stochastically varying contact depths)
CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 49
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Depth vs Area / Thickness
GRV
gross reservoir
isopach contours

top reservoir
depth contours
0 10 20 30 40 50 40 30

better able to model changing thickness across the trap

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 50
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Depth vs Volume GRV
calculations are based on “TVT”
TVT = True Vertical Thickness of a bed measured vertically at a point..
The values of TVT in an area can be plotted and contours drawn to
create an isochore map.

TVT TST = True Stratigraphic Thickness after correcting for bed dip and the
deviation of the well that penetrates it. The values of TST in an area can
be plotted and contours drawn to create an isopach map.
TST Radius Closure Vertical vc/radius Bed Dip
Area Closure Angle TST TVT
km km2 m degrees m m
4.0 50 100 0.03 1 100 100
4.0 50 500 0.13 7 100 101
4.0 50 1000 0.25 14 100 103
4.0 50 2000 0.50 27 100 112
4.0 50 4000 1.00 45 100 142
4.0 50 6000 1.50 56 100 181
4.0 50 8000 2.01 63 100 224
Be careful.. It can make a 4.0 50 10000 2.51 68 100 270

difference in steep dip areas

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 51
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 2: BG prospect
Contour
Depth (m)
2900

G/W Contact
Depth (m)
3100 Min 3122
3120 ML 3130
3150 Max 3145

The Brian Garth (BG) Miocene sandstone gas prospect has been defined both with direct entry
of GRV, and with entry of GRV using the depth vs area_thickness table option. The prospect is
located at 2954 m depth in the Ares Formation reservoir. Water Depth is 240 m.

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 52

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect
Volumetric Data Supplied
A: Direct entry GRV
Parameter Units Distribution Min M.Likely Max
GRV million m3 Sretched Beta 3161 3508 3950
Net/Gross Ratio % Sretched Beta 10 30 60
Porosity % Sretched Beta 15 20 25
Trap Fill % Sretched Beta 60 70 75
Gas Saturation % Sretched Beta 40 55 70
Recovery Factor Gas % Sretched Beta 30 40 60
Recovery Factor Condensate % Sretched Beta 30 40 60

Gas Expansion Factor(1/Bg) Sm3/m3) Sretched Beta 220 240 250

Condensate Yield Sm3/1e3Sm3 Sretched Beta 0.05615 0.08422 0.1685

B: Volume vs depth GRV

Area Reservoir Thickness
Depth from(m) Units Distrib. Min M.Likely Max Units Distrib. Min M.Likely Max

2900 km2 SB 0 m SB 45 50 55
3100 km2 SB 40 42 50 m SB 40 45 55
3120 km2 SB 54 58 63 m SB 35 40 50
3150 km2 SB 85 100 125 m SB 30 35 40

Fluid
Spill Point m constant 3150
Gas/Water m SB 3122 3130 3145

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 53

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 2
Brian Garth Gas Prospect
Getting Started

1) Use North West Basin

Create a New Play 2) create a new prospect (BG)
(Miocene)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 54

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect - Setup

metric
%

Gas case

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 55

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect - Setup

Method A
Direct Entry of GRV

Setup launches
Appropriate Tool
Notebook format

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 56

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect - Setup

Method B
Depth vs
Area_Thickness in Table
Setup launches
Appropriate Tool
Notebook formats

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 57

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect
Depth vs Area_Thickness Table

same PIP format

new buttons to
add/remove/sort intervals

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 58

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 BG Prospect
Depth vs Area_Thickness Table

contacts/spill point distributions

depths area distributions thickness distributions

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 59
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Volume vs Depth Diagram

Just a picture based on table

- no computational usage

uses spill point to compute

column heights

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 60

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 2: Brian Garth Prospect

Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gProspectR!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 61

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 2: BG Prospect - Results

Depth vs Volume

Depth vs Area/Thickness Table

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 62

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 2: BG Prospect – Results
Recoverable Gas Distribution Overlay

Current =
depth/area/thickness

Reference =
direct entry GRV

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 63

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 3: A CNPA prospect

Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gProspectR!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 64
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 gProspectAggregate

Risk & Resources for a collection of

Prospect Analyses

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 65

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 gProspectAggregate
• gProspectAggregate does stochastic
(probabilistic) aggregation of the resource
and risk estimates for a set (collection) of
prospects.
– Also aggregation of aggregates
• The main input is the definition of prospects
(analyses) in the aggregation set. The output
is an estimate of the risk for finding a phase,
the expected number of accumulations in the
set and the total resources in the aggregate.
CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 66
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Definition of aggregation set

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 67

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Aggregation with depedency

Dependency factor
CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 68
Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Aggregation results

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 69

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX Best Practice and
System Tools

System
administration is
key to successful
RRV

Consistent evaluation

1
2 3
(Verification)
Quality Assurance Portfolio management

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 70

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Best Practice routines
• System configuration
– Modelling setup, standard templates
• Workflow
– Frame the problem and select method
– Naming conventions
– Document input
– Change description, quality assurance
• Sharing GeoX
– Database acccess and security
• Reporting
– Standard reports, special reports, data
sharing
• Learning
– Training and post mortem reviews

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 71

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 System configuration in GeoX
• Default template analyses
• Selection of statistical distributions
• Populate property tables (stratigraphy, block/license,
rock library)
• Customize documentation properties
• Populate properties of analyses
– for quality and readability of prints and reports
– for better organization of database (search in database)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 72

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Standard templates
1. Create template
analysis
2. Save to
Template folder
3. Select default
analysis in
Tools – Options

=> New
analyses with
default values!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 73

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Statistical distributions
1. Select active
distributions from list
(enable / disable)
2. Create new
distributions
3. Edit new
distributions

=> Defines the set of

active distributions in
GeoX

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 74

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Risk model editor
• Modify / create risk model
– Risk factor
– Description
– Justification template
– Risk setup (DFI / HC
phase / confidence)

• Set new model as default

Edit – Set as default
• New analyses created will
have new risk model
• Old analyses unchanged

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 75

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Properties: tables and selection
1. Populate internal
properties tables
(geological,
economical)
2. Select active
properties to be
populated for
different analysis
types

=> Defines the set of

properties and
property values

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 76

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Properties: populate analyses
Populate Properties,
Strat. columns,
Blocks and
Licenses in
analyses

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 77

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 System Security Setup
• Users
– F. Bessel
– N. Copernicus
• User groups with access to
analysis
– North Sea
– East plain
• System groups with access to
system configuration
– G&G administrator
– FC table administrator
– Corporate administrator

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 78

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Maintain System Security
• Edit user information
– New users
– Add to group
– Remove from group
• Edit system group
privileges
– Allow editing
– Remove privileges

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 79

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Reporting across analyses
From GeoXplorer, generate
reports:
– prospect analyses report
– full cycle key indicator
report
– full cycle profiles report

Functionality:
– select analyses
– sort
– print
– copy to clipboard

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 80

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX standard reports
• Summary report
• Full report
• Detailed reports
• Print standard reports to pdf-
files or printer

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 81

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX export and data sharing
• Copy to clipboard for
easy export of graphs
and tables
• Export / Import of
analyses
• Print standard reports
to pdf-files

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 82

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Getting help?
• Press F1 for in-context help
• Browse the Help file for more detailed
instruction
• Support at GeoKnowledge using
support@geoknowledge.com

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 83

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Day 2 – Resource and Risk
evaluation with GeoX
09:00 Review of Day 1; Q&A; revisit CNPA prospect
10:00 Introduction to play assessment with gPlayR
10:30 Case Upper Cretaceous Play: “walk-through”
11:00 Hands On Case 4: The UCret play
12:00 Lunch
13:00 Integrated prospect and play analysis
14:00 A CNPA play :Presentation
14:30 Hands On Case 5: The CNPA play
15:30 Additional GeoX RR functions and features
16:30 Review and evaluation

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 84

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
GeoX/gPlayR – analysis of
risked resources in plays
• Analysis of resources in plays
• GeoX/gPlayR logic
• Using GeoX/gPlayR
• Hands-on exercise

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 85

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Hypothetical and Speculative
resources in a play
• A play is family of prospects that share common
geological features.
• Play analysis is used to estimate both hypothetical
and speculative resources in a play
• The output of a play analysis is expectation in terms
of number of accumulations, the distribution of the
size of the accumulations and the total resources in
the play

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 86

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 gPlayR: key input and main
results
closure
thickness G&G data, risks etc
net/gross
porosity
saturation
Volumetric
trap fill Rec. Resources
depth model
Size by rank
probability gas Number of accumulations
#prospects
recovery factor
risk of:
source rock
migration 2-level
timing risk model
reservoir Play/Prospect risks
trap
accumulation gPlayR

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 87

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 gPlayR – basic volumetric
equations
Total Recoverable Oil in Play = Total Recoverable Oil in
Accumulation • Number of Oil Accumulations

where
Total Recoverable Oil in Accumulation = Closure • Thickness •
Geometric Factor • Net/Gross • Ø • HS • Fill • (1/FVFoil) •
Recovery factor

Number of Oil Accumulations = Number of Prospects • Probability

of Success • Probability of Oil

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 88

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 GeoX/gPlayR
• Similar in structure to gProspectR
• However, distributions are for mean values across
family of prospects in play
• Assumes that accumulations are either oil or gas
• Play analysis specific input
– Number of prospects in play
– Probability that accumulation is an oil accumulation
– Prospect depth
– Bo, GOR, reservoir temperature, reservoir pressure, gas
compressibility and CGR as a function (depth)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 89

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Reservoir equations
• 6 parameters as function of depth:
– Original reservoir pressure (Pe) [bars or psi]
– Reservoir temperature (T) [Deg K or R]
– Gas-Oil Ratio (Rs) [ sm3/sm3or scf/STB]
– Oil Formation Factor (Bo) [sm3/sm3or bbl/STB]
– Gas Compressability (Z) [real]
– Condensate Yied ( C) [sm3/1000 sm3or STB/1000 scf]
• Alternative functional forms: zoned linear, exponential, power, logarithmic
• Two parameters that are the depth gradient (A) and constant (B)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 90

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Geo-technical analysis of a
play
1. Define context in database: basin-play-prospect
2. Create new play analysis w. default values
3. Document play
4. Edit inputs: volume, reservoir and risk parameters
w. justifications
5. Calculate (F9)
6. Review results and save
7. Print report

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 91

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 Volumetric inputs

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 92

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 Reservoir equation inputs

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 93

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Recoverable resources

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 94

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 4: Upper Cretaceous Play

Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gPlayR!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 95

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Exercise: Upper Cretaceous Play
You have been asked to do an analysis of the upper creataceous play that contains
the A1 prospect. The purpose of the exercise is to calibrate your assessment of A1
as well as get an estimate of the total potential in the play. Your estimates are:

Min M.likely Max Risk factor P(play) P(prospect | play)

2 HC Source [%] 100
Bulk rock volume (km -m) 400 1200 4300
Net/Gross 0.30 0.42 0.65 Migration [%] 100
Porosity 0.07 0.18 0.22 Timing [%] 90
Reservoir Presence [%] 90
HC saturation 0.60 0.75 0.85
Trap [%] 50
Fill 0.6 1 1
Effective porosity [%] 60
Reservoir depth 2250 2600 3500
HC accumulation [%] 70
Number of prospects 4 11 32
Recovery factor oil 0.18 0.30 0.35
Oil formation factor (Bo) 1.3 1.3 1.3
You initially assume that all parameters have a stretched
beta distribution.

Specific gravity (API) 34

Initial GOR (m3/m3) 178
FVF (Bo) 1.3

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 96

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 A1 in context of play?
Play-stdv Play Mean Play+stdv A1 - Mean
Gross Rock Volume [1000 km2-m] 0.8865 1.6407 2.3949 1.5156
Net/Gross Ratio [decimal] 0.372 0.441 0.51 0.7
Net Rock Volume [1000 km2-m] 0.3685 0.7232 1.0779 1.0618
Porosity [decimal] 0.138 0.167 0.196 0.163
Trap Fill [decimal] 0.846 0.919 0.992 0.55
HC Saturation [decimal] 0.692 0.741 0.79 0.65
Recovery Rate Oil [decimal] 0.254 0.287 0.32 0.45
Oil Form. Factor (Bo) [m3/Sm3] 1.3 1.49
Gas Oil Ratio [Sm3/Sm3] 0.178 0.1133
Yield Oil [m3/m3] 0.095 0.0402
Accumulation size[10 million Sm3] 0.8 1.81 2.82 1.91

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 97

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 A1 in context of play?

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 98

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 Matching A1 to size-by-rank
Size-by-rank of prospects

45

40

35

30
Mean size [million Sm3]

25
A1
20

15

10

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Rank

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 99

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Case 5: CNPA Play

Now it is your turn to use GeoX/gPlayR!

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 100

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
 Review
We have now completed the gProspectR,gAggegateProspect, gPlayR
basics. You now know how to:
• create a prospect and play analysis
• Assess parameter distributions and risk
• Model parameter dependencies
• Compare analyses
• Aggregate analyses

We have not covered:

• Geological scenario
• Multisegment analyses
• Approved and Historic analyses
• Advanced risking topics (HC fluid risking, DFI risk modification)

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 101

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX
Course evaluation

CCOP PPM Risk and resource assessment 102

Feb 26-27, 2003 w. GeoX