Time Series
Time Series
Time Series
where,
1 : Intercept
2 ...k :Partial
: Partial slope coefficients
u :Stochastic disturbance term
n : Population size
Expand (1)
2
u E (u ) 0
1 1
u E (u ) 0
2 2
1. E . .
.
. . .
un E (un ) 0
u
1 u 2 u u ... u u
u 1 1 2 1 n
2 2
u u u ... u u
2. E uu E . u1 u2 ... un E 2 1 2 2 n
... ... ... ...
.
u u u u ... u 2
un n 1 n 2 n
E (u 2 ) E (u u ) ... E (u u )
1 1 2 1 n
2
E (u2u1 ) E (u2 ) ... E (u2un )
... ... ... ...
E (u u ) E (u u ) ... E (u ) 2
n 1 n 2 n
2 0 ... 0 1 0 ... 0
2
0 ... 0 2
0 1 ... 0
................ ...............
0 0 ... 1
0 0 ... 2
2I
4. The data matrix X has full column rank. This means that none of the columns of
X are linearly dependent on each other i.e. there is no exact linear relationship
among the X variables. This implies no multicoll
multicollinearity.
inearity. (Recall that the rank of a
matrix is the maximum number of linearly independent
dependent rows or columns)
5. ui N 0, 2 , no change here, though note the zero-vector
zero (0).
3
OLS eestimation in matrix notation
In matrix notation:
y Xˆ uˆ
Y 1 X X 31 . . Xk 1 ˆ uˆ
1 21 1 1
Y 1 X X 32 . . Xk 2 ˆ2 uˆ2
2 22
Y 1 X X 33 . . Xk 3 ˆ3 uˆ3
3 23
. . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . .
Yn 1 X 2n X 3n . . Xkn ˆn uˆn
Recall that OLS estimators are found by minimising the Residual Sum of Squares
2
min uˆi2 Yi ˆ1 ˆ2X 2i ... ˆk Xki (4)
i i
uˆ
1
uˆ
2
ˆ u
since u
ˆ uˆ1 uˆ2 ... uˆn . uˆ12 uˆ22 ... uˆn2 uˆi2
i
.
uˆ
n
ˆ y X u
Now, u ˆ y Xˆ y Xˆ yy 2ˆX y ˆXXˆ
ˆ u
4
So, we are required to min uˆ u 2 ˆXy ˆXXˆ with respect to ̂ , to do so
ˆ y y 2
ˆ u
we have to set the partial derivative of u ˆ with respect to ̂ equal to zero. Doing so
we get the following result:
ˆ u
u ˆ
2X y 2XXˆ 0
ˆ
XXˆ X y
1 1
X X XX ˆ XX X y
1
ˆ X X X y
k 1 kk n1
kn
This result is the matrix counterpart of the scalar OLS estimator of ̂2 . You will
variable sample regression function Yi ˆ1 ˆ2Xi uˆi , the
recall that for the two-variable
x i yi
OLS estimator of ˆ2 i
.
xi2
i
-1
Recall, ̂ X X X y and y = X + u , substitute and obtain
-1
̂ XX X X + u
-1 -1
XX XX X X u
-1
X X u
which means
-1
̂ X X Xu
5
Now, by definition,
Var Cov ˆ E ˆ ˆ
-1
E XX Xu X X X u
-1
-1
E XX Xu u X X X
-1
-1 -1
E X X X uu X XX
R-squared
squared and population variance:
variance
uˆi2
ˆ2
Recall, in the scalar case ̂ i
, in the k -variable
variable case, in vector notation we
n k
ˆ u
u ˆ
write ˆ2 .
n k
ESS ˆXy nY 2
R2
TSS y y nY 2
6
Hypothesis Testing:
We have the following distributions, u N 0 , 2I and ˆ N , 2 (XX)1 which
are the starting points for hypothesis testing. Since, in practice, 2 is unknown, it
has to be replaced by its sample estimate ̂ 2 .
ˆi i
Recall, t n – k) degrees of freedom and the F test for overall
with (n
se ˆ
i
RSSR RSSUR / k
significance is accomplished by calculating the statistic F
RSSUR / n1 n2 2k
yy ˆXy / (n k )
R2 / (k 1)
this bears a close resemblance to the scalar result F which, as
(1 R2 ) / (n k )
you will recall, is another way of calculating the F statistic using R--squared.
When we have linear restrictions, the general procedure for hypothesis testing is as
follows:
7
Generalised Least Squares (GLS):
Let us depart from the OLS assumption and now assume that E (uu ) 2V where V
is a known (n x n) variance-covariance
variance matrix. The elements on the main diagonal of
V are the variances (possibly not all the same) and the off
off-diagonal
diagonal elements ar
are
autocorrelations of the error terms (possibly not all equal to zero). V could be of
three types.
1 0 0
1. 0 1 0 which is the same as I and would yield the OLS assumption. In fact
0 0 1
OLS is just a special case of GLS.
2 0 0
1
2. 0 22 0 , now we have heteroscedasticity but no serial correlation.
0
0 32
8
Now, if y X u with E (u) 0 and var-cov(u)= 2V , and if 2 is unknown, V
represents the assumed underlying structure of the variances and covariances among
1
the random errors ui . Then, GLS XV 1X XV 1y and
1
var cov GLS 2 XV 1X .
In practice, we may not know either 2 , or indeed the structure of V. Then we have
to estimate both. Estimated GLS is known as EGLS or Feasible GLS (FGLS).
1 1
EGLS XVˆ1X
XVˆ1y and var cov EGLS ˆ2 XVˆ1X , where Vˆ is an
estimator of V.
1 1
1. We know that ̂ XX X y , XX X is just a matrix of fixed numbers, so
̂ is a linear function of y.. It is, therefore, a linear estimator.
1
2. The PRF is y = X u , substitute for y in ̂ X X X y and get
1
̂ X X X X u
1
X X X u
1
Taking expectations we obtain, E (ˆ) E ( ) XX XE (u) E (ˆ) , which
means ̂ is an unbiased estimator of .
9
3. Let ̂ be any other linear estimator of which we can write as
-1
ˆ X X X C y, where C is a matrix of constants
-1
ˆ X X X C X + u
-1
CX XX Xu Cu
-1 -1
Now, Var Cov ˆ : E ˆ ˆ E XX Xu + Cu XX Xu + Cu .
1
Simplify and obtain: Var Cov ˆ 2 XX 2CC .
1
But, 2 X X is Var Cov ˆ and CC is a positive semi-definite
definite matrix, so
Var Cov ˆ Var Cov ˆ 2CC implying Var Cov ˆ Var Cov ˆ .
Hence, ̂ has the smallest variance, making it BLUE.
10