Alex Processing

Alex Processing produces a line of food products that are used as key ingredients in mass-produced
meals. The CEO, who recently hired you as his assistant, requested you to prepare an equipment
acquisition plan.

After consulting Sam English, the executive engineer, you are able to tabulate the equipment holding, the
last 10 years' annual aggregate demands, and the next 10 years' expected annual aggregate demands.

You start,
you can nowyou begin
recall work by estimating
the following advicethe equipment
given you by requirements
the CEO: for each equipment type. But before

● Past forecasts and acquisition plans were very crude, though they were adequate in the fast business
growth phase.
● Demand growth rate has slowed significantly, and from hereon such rough planning may lead to buying
equipment too early and even possible expensive over-purchase mistakes.
● Productivity will continue to improve, but its change rate will eventually approach saturation.

This exercise was written as a basis for class discussion. It illustrates neither the effective nor ineffective
management of the given situation. Data provided may be entirely hypothetical.

LeongTY 49668571/Home
 Demand
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Output
Aggregate Grinder Grader Seive Sorting Bonding Packing Test
Year Demand Machine Machine Machine Equipment Machine Machine Equipment
(yyyy) (ton) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty)
1997 3.91
1998 5.06
1999 6.05
2000 7.77
2001 10.03
2002 12.01
2003 14.61
2004 17.39
2005 20.82
2006 23.92
2007 27.74
2008 31.90
2009 36.04
2010 40.73
2011 45.22
2012 50.19
2013 55.36
2014 62.02
2015 68.03
2016 73.29

LeongTY 49668571/Scratch
Alex Processing Copyright © Leong Thin Yin, 2004. All Rights Reserved.

Input
Unit Cost ($) 100,000 50,000 250,000 70,000 120,000 90,000 110,000
Order Leadtime (yrs) 1 1 3 1 1 2 2

Output
Aggregate Grinder Grader Seive Sorting Bonding Packing Test
Year Demand Machine Machine Machine Equipment Machine Machine Equipment
(yyyy) (ton) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty)
1997 3.91 4 5 2 9 1 2 5
1998 5.06 4 5 2 10 1 3 6
1999 6.05 4 4 3 11 1 4 7
2000 7.77 5 7 3 13 2 5 8
2001 10.03 6 8 4 15 2 5 9
2002 12.01 7 11 4 16 3 7 10
2003 14.61 7 12 5 19 3 7 11
2004 17.39 8 15 6 20 3 8 12
2005 20.82 9 16 6 23 5 9 14
2006 23.92 10 19 7 24 5 10 14
2007 27.74 10 21 7 25 6 11 15
2008 31.90 10 23 8 26 7 12 15
2009 36.04 11 25 8 27 7 13 16
2010 40.73 11 28 9 28 8 14 17
2011 45.22 12 30 9 29 9 14 17
2012 50.19 12 32 9 29 10 15 17
2013 55.36 12 34 10 30 11 16 18
2014 62.02 12 36 10 31 13 16 18
2015 68.03 13 38 10 31 14 17 18
2016 73.29 13 40 11 31 15 17 19

Output
Aggregate Grinder Grader Seive Sorting Bonding Packing Test
Year Demand Machine Machine Machine Equipment Machine Machine Equipment
(yyyy) (ton) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty)
1997 3.91 0.9775 0.7820 1.9550 0.4344 3.9100 1.9550 0.7820
1998 5.06 1.2650 1.0120 2.5300 0.5060 5.0600 1.6867 0.8433
1999 6.05 1.5123 1.5123 2.0163 0.5499 6.0490 1.5123 0.8641
2000 7.77 1.5548 1.1106 2.5913 0.5980 3.8870 1.5548 0.9718
2001 10.03 1.6713 1.2535 2.5070 0.6685 5.0140 2.0056 1.1142
2002 12.01 1.7151 1.0915 3.0015 0.7504 4.0020 1.7151 1.2006
2003 14.61 2.0864 1.2171 2.9210 0.7687 4.8683 2.0864 1.3277
2004 17.39 2.1735 1.1592 2.8980 0.8694 5.7960 2.1735 1.4490
2005 20.82 2.3128 1.3009 3.4692 0.9050 4.1630 2.3128 1.4868
2006 23.92 2.3920 1.2589 3.4171 0.9967 4.7840 2.3920 1.7086
2007 27.74 2.7812 1.3367 3.7927 1.1183 4.7974 2.5243 1.8804
2008 31.90 3.0522 1.3813 4.0763 1.2287 4.8092 2.6805 2.0688
2009 36.04 3.3219 1.4256 4.3584 1.3386 4.8209 2.8359 2.2562
2010 40.73 3.6275 1.4759 4.6781 1.4631 4.8342 3.0120 2.4686
2011 45.22 3.9196 1.5239 4.9838 1.5821 4.8469 3.1803 2.6717
2012 50.19 4.2432 1.5771 5.3223 1.7140 4.8609 3.3668 2.8966
2013 55.36 4.5801 1.6325 5.6748 1.8512 4.8756 3.5609 3.1308
2014 62.02 5.0141 1.7039 6.1289 2.0280 4.8944 3.8110 3.4324
2015 68.03 5.4054 1.7682 6.5382 2.1875 4.9114 4.0364 3.7044
2016 73.29 5.7480 1.8245 6.8968 2.3271 4.9263 4.2339 3.9426

LeongTY 49668571/Proto
 80.0000 Grinder Machine
(qty)
Grader Machine
70.0000 (qty)
Seive Machine
60.0000 (qty)
Sorting Equipment
50.0000 (qty)
Bonding Machine
(qty)
40.0000
Packing Machine
(qty)
30.0000 Test Equipment
(qty)
20.0000 Aggregate Demand
(ton)
10.0000

0.0000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

LeongTY 49668571/Proto
Machine

achine

chine

quipment

Machine

Machine

pment

te Demand

LeongTY 49668571/Proto
Alex Processing Copyright © Leong Thin Yin, 2004. All Rights Reserved.

Input
Unit Cost ($) 100,000 50,000 250,000 70,000 120,000 90,000 110,000
Order Leadtime (yrs) 1 1 3 1 1 2 2

Holding & Requirement

Aggregate Grinder Grader Sieve Sorting Bonding Packing Test
Year Demand Machine Machine Machine Equipment Machine Machine Equipment
(yyyy) (ton) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty)
1997 3.91 4 5 2 9 1 2 5
1998 5.06 4 5 2 10 1 3 6
1999 6.05 4 4 3 11 1 4 7
2000 7.77 5 7 3 13 2 5 8
2001 10.03 6 8 4 15 2 5 9
2002 12.01 7 11 4 16 3 7 10
2003 14.61 7 12 5 19 3 7 11
2004 17.39 8 15 6 20 3 8 12 Grinder Machine | Projected: Require
2005 20.82 9 16 6 23 5 9 14
2006 23.92 10 19 7 24 5 10 14
2007 27.74 10 21 7 25 6 11 15
2008 31.90 10 23 8 26 7 12 15 Projected (time-based): Performance
2009 36.04 11 25 8 27 7 13 16 Projected (vol-based): Performance
2010 40.73 11 28 9 28 8 14 16
2011 45.22 12 30 9 29 9 14 17
2012 50.19 12 32 9 29 10 15 17
2013 55.36 12 34 10 30 11 16 18
2014 62.02 12 36 10 31 13 16 18
2015 68.03 13 38 10 31 14 17 18
2016 73.29 13 40 11 31 15 17 19

Performance Ratio
Aggregate Grinder Grader Sieve Sorting Bonding Packing Test
Year Demand Maching Machine Machine Equipment Machine Machine Equipment
(yyyy) (ton) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty) (qty)
1997 3.91 0.978 0.782 1.955 0.434 3.910 1.955 0.782
1998 5.06 1.265 1.012 2.530 0.506 5.060 1.687 0.843
1999 6.05 1.512 1.512 2.016 0.550 6.049 1.512 0.864
2000 7.77 1.555 1.111 2.591 0.598 3.887 1.555 0.972
2001 10.03 1.671 1.254 2.507 0.669 5.014 2.006 1.114
2002 12.01 1.715 1.091 3.002 0.750 4.002 1.715 1.201
2003 14.61 2.086 1.217 2.921 0.769 4.868 2.086 1.328
2004 17.39 2.174 1.159 2.898 0.869 5.796 2.174 1.449
2005 20.82 2.313 1.301 3.469 0.905 4.163 2.313 1.487
2006 23.92 2.392 1.259 3.417 0.997 4.784 2.392 1.709
2007 27.74 2.780 1.340 3.790 1.120 4.800 2.520 1.880
2008 31.90 3.050 1.380 4.080 1.230 4.810 2.680 2.070
2009 36.04 3.320 1.430 4.360 1.340 4.820 2.840 2.260
2010 40.73 3.630 1.480 4.680 1.460 4.830 3.010 2.470
2011 45.22 3.920 1.520 4.980 1.580 4.850 3.180 2.670
2012 50.19 4.240 1.580 5.320 1.710 4.860 3.370 2.900
2013 55.36 4.580 1.630 5.670 1.850 4.880 3.560 3.130
2014 62.02 5.010 1.700 6.130 2.030 4.890 3.810 3.430
2015 68.03 5.410 1.770 6.540 2.190 4.910 4.040 3.700
2016 73.29 5.750 1.820 6.900 2.330 4.930 4.230 3.940
Performance ratios projection may be set by performance targeting.

LeongTY 49668571/Model
Trends
2007 2.781 1.337 3.793 1.118 4.797 2.524 1.880
2008 3.052 1.381 4.076 1.229 4.809 2.681 2.069
2009 3.322 1.426 4.358 1.339 4.821 2.836 2.256
2010 3.627 1.476 4.678 1.463 4.834 3.012 2.469
2011 3.920 1.524 4.984 1.582 4.847 3.180 2.672
2012 4.243 1.577 5.322 1.714 4.861 3.367 2.897
2013 4.580 1.632 5.675 1.851 4.876 3.561 3.131
2014 5.014 1.704 6.129 2.028 4.894 3.811 3.432
2015 5.405 1.768 6.538 2.187 4.911 4.036 3.704
2016 5.748 1.825 6.897 2.327 4.926 4.234 3.943
Performance ratios projection thus derived may not be acceptable.

LeongTY 49668571/Model
 Documentation
Unit Cost of Equipment D4:J4 <Input>
Equipment Order Leadtime D5:J5 <Input>

Actual: Aggregate Demand C9:C18 <Input>

Equipment Holding D9:J18 <Input>
Projected: Aggregate Demand C19:C28 <Input>

Grinder Machine | Projected: Requirement D19 =$C19/D42

Actual: Performance ratio D32 =$C9/D9
Projected: Performance ratio D42:J51 <Input>, values copied from D55:J64 and then adjusted.

Projected (time-based): Performance ratio D55 =TREND(D$32:D$41,$B$32:$B$41,$B42)

Projected (vol-based): Performance ratio D55 =TREND(D$32:D$41,$C$32:$C$41,$C42)

Notes
Performance ratio projection may be assumed to be function of time or volume.
FORECAST may be used in place of TREND.
The values from TREND are then adjusted in a negotiated process and recorded as planned performance targets.

This RefLine
Year
2007 0
2007 ###
80
75
Aggregate Demand
70
Series2
65 Grinder Maching
(qty)
60 Grader Machine
Aggregate Demand (ton)

55 (qty)
Sieve Machine
50 (qty)
45 Sorting Equipment
(qty)
40 Bonding Machine
(qty)
35 Packing Machine
30 (qty)
Test Equipment
25 (qty)
20
15
10
5
0
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

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LeongTY 49668571/Model
performance targets.

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