WARGAMES: JOSHUA’S NUCLEAR WAR SCENARIOS

The movie Wargames was an influential piece of cinema back in the early 80s. Like a respectable
number of movies during the time period, this one took an indirect look at nuclear war. For many
young people back then, Wargames helped to shape their views on nuclear warfare. Keep in mind
the tenor of the times. The Cold War was in full swing. The possibility of it boiling over into a hot
nuclear conflict was quite real. The United States was no longer the push over it had been during
the Carter years. The Post-Vietnam malaise was wearing off. Soviet expansion efforts across the
globe were being countered effectively. The US military was undergoing a complete overhaul.
Soviet leadership was fluid, with a revolving door seemingly in place at the Kremlin. Soviets were
fearful of the United States. Americans were fearful of the Soviets. Folks were quite worried that
there might not be a tomorrow. It certainly was a very dangerous time. I can appreciate that now,
however, back then I was just a kid who was more concerned with his GI Joes.
In the last few minutes of the movie, Joshua begins playing a large number of nuclear war scenarios
at a rapid clip. As it plays the scenarios, it learns and ultimately comes to the conclusion that the
only proper move is not to play at all. The scenarios always piqued my curiosity. Back during my
undergrad days I came across a copy of the entire list on the internet. Over the years I’d pull the list
out and try to figure out the background story of each scenario.  I thought I would share the list and
my summaries on here. Since the list has over 150 entries I only be putting twenty or so up at a
time. So, shall we play a game?
As a final note, keep in mind the time period of these scenarios: late 70s to Early 80s.
1. US first strike– Pretty basic. A US counterforce nuclear strike against targets in the Soviet
Union. I disagree with Joshua on this one. The scenario is quite winnable under certain
circumstances
2. USSR first strike – Same as above, only the Soviets launching first. Again, I believe this
scenario is winnable for the initiator.
3. NATO / Warsaw Pact– NATO vs WP conventional conflict escalates to a strategic nuclear
exchange.
4. Far East strategy– This scenario title is open ended. I’ll go on the assumption that it
involves a Soviet backed campaign in the Far East. Korea perhaps.
5. US USSR escalation– Very generic. Tensions rise, forces deploy, units exchange fire and
ultimately it leads to a nuclear exchange.
6. Middle East war– In the 80s, the Middle East was a hotbed of violence. Israel vs Syria,
Iran/Iraq, Operation Praying Mantis….a nuclear war could have kicked off from one of many
conflicts in the region.
7. USSR – China attack – Back in the 70s and 80s the Chinese and Soviet Union disliked
each other quite a bit. The fear was always there that a conflict between the two might go
nuclear.
8. India Pakistan war– Still a very real threat today!
9. Mediterranean war– Soviet/WP moves against NATO’s Southern Flank or a flare up
between the US and Soviet allies such as Syria and/or Libya which leads to rapid escalation.
10. Hong Kong variant– In the 1980s Hong Kong was sovereign British territory. Any PRC
moves against the city would have inevitably drawn in the Superpowers.
11. SEATO decapitating– SEATO dissolved in 1977. A decapitation attack would have been
nuclear strikes against the members capital cities.
12. Cuban provocation– Cuba provoking a crisis somewhere that leads to a conflict between
the US and Soviet Union. Grenada could be considered a Cuban provocation. Fortunately, it did
not involve direct fighting between the Superpowers.
13. Inadvertent– An accident. Always possible. When the one side launches its missiles,
accident or not,  the other side is going to be forced to respond.
 14. Atlantic heavy– Control of the North Atlantic was essential to both NATO and Soviet war
plans. The US Navy was prepared to take the war directly to the Soviet homeland. The Soviets
were prepared to close the Atlantic off with its submarine and bomber forces.
15. Cuban paramilitary– A situation similar to Angola
 16. Nicaraguan preemptive– A US preemptive strike against Communist controlled
Nicaragua. There were always fears that Mexico would be next if the Nicaraguans were allowed
to go on unchecked.
17. Pacific territorial– Naval fighting between the US and Soviet Union in the North Pacific
18. Burmese Theatrewide– This scenario title was always interesting. How could Burma have
played central role in nuclear war planning?
19. Turkish decoy– A Soviet attack against Turkey to keep NATO’s attention focused there.
It’s a feint and the real Soviet objective is somewhere else in the world.
20.       NATO …? This is one of the titles on the list that was obscured.
21.       Argentina  Escalation– In 1982 Argentina invaded the Falklands, prompting a powerful
British response. Another attempt to retake the islands bringing about an escalation was not out
of the question back in the 80s. In recent years the idea of another Argentinian invasion attempt
in the future has gained some momentum.
22.       Iceland Maximum– Control of the North Atlantic would have been essential to both
sides in a NATO-Warsaw Pact war. Iceland was the gate to the North Atlantic. The Soviets would
have had to neutralize the NATO bases there in order to undertake a successful Atlantic
campaign
23.       Arabian Theatre-wide- All hell breaks loose on the Arabian Peninsula and Persian
Gulf. Escalation of the Iran-Iraq War or perhaps a Soviet invasion of Iran
24.       U.S. Subversion– Political turmoil and internal conflict inside of the United States.
Homegrown or the result of foreign meddling?
25.       Australian Maneuver– This one could either be Soviet action against Australia or, less
likely, Australian led action in the region
26.       Iranian Diversion-Another open-ended title. It could signify a Soviet invasion of Iran to
draw off US/NATO attention from Europe
27.       …? limited- Another obscured title. Ugh!
28.       Sudan surprise– Challenges to the Sudanese Socialist Union could have led to an
Afghanistan-like invasion by the Soviet Union
29.       NATO territorial– Incursion of NATO territory by the Warsaw Pact
30.       Zaire Alliance– Mobutu aligns Zaire closely with the Soviet Union
31.       Iceland Incident– Soviet assault against Iceland or an inadvertent incident at sea
between the US and Soviet navies off of Iceland.
32.       English Escalation– Oh those whacky Brits
33.       Zaire Sudden- Zaire falls into chaos. The Soviets intervene
34.       Egypt Paramilitary– This one stumps me. Overthrow of Egyptian government by
paramilitary forces perhaps.
35.       Middle East Heavy– Conflict in the Middle East. Lebanon, Arab-Israeli, Iran-Iraq….take
your pick
36.       Mexican Takeover– The red tide that threatened Central America in the 1980s comes
north. Mexico falls to Nicaragua and Cuba
37.       Chad Alert- Chad was a hotspot in the 80s. Libya became embroiled in the Chad civil
war. France supported Chad.
38.       Saudi Maneuver– A Soviet move against the Saudi oilfields
39.       African Territorial– One of the myriad of African conflicts escalates and brings in the
superpowers.
 40. ETHIOPIAN ESCALATION– During the late 70s the Horn of Africa was a very active
Cold War chessboard. Ethiopia and Somalia had fought a war in 1977-78, aided by supplies
furnished by the Superpowers. Another conflict in the area was always possible.

41. TURKISH HEAVY– A conflict on NATO’s Southern Flank, whether part of a larger
Soviet operation or not, would have run the risk of swift escalation.
 
42. NATO INCURSION– Open ended somewhat. It could refer to an attempt by NATO to
break through a Soviet/East German blockade of Berlin.
 
43. U.S. DEFENSE– Think Red Dawn
 
44. CAMBODIAN HEAVY– The end of the Vietnam War in 1975 did not bring everlasting
serenity to Southeast Asia. China and Vietnam had already locked horns once as a result of
Vietnam’s invasion and occupation of Cambodia. A second war between the two could have
escalated.
 
45. PACT MEDIUM– Generic title. Invasion of Warsaw Pact territory by NATO, or vice
versa.
 
46. ARCTIC MINIMAL– The world’s attention on the Arctic in recent years is nothing new.
 
47. MEXICAN DOMESTIC– Civil war in Mexico, perhaps touched off by Nicaraguan
backed rebels. The US would not stand idle while its southern neighbor dissolved into chaos.
 
48. TAIWAN THEATERWIDE– China moves to recapture Taiwan, touching off a conflict
that rages across the entire Western Pacific.
 
49. PACIFIC MANEUVER– A ruse by the Soviets in the Pacific to take attention away from
another region where they were preparing to make a move.
 
50. PORTUGAL REVOLUTION– Revolution in Portugal. The communists came close to
seizing power there once or twice. Portugal was and still is a valuable member of NATO. A
revolution there could have drawn in Spain and perhaps even France.
 
51. ALBANIAN DECOY– A Soviet gambit to deflect attention away from somewhere else.
 
52. PALESTINIAN LOCAL– Arafat’s dream. The Palestinian conflict draws in the
superpowers and escalates to a nuclear showdown
53. MOROCCAN MINIMAL– Morocco has been a bastion of stability in North Africa for
decades. This title is open to speculation
 
54. BAVARIAN DIVERSITY– When I think about diversity in Bavaria, I’m generally thinking
about the diverse selection of beers available there
 
55. CZECH OPTION– NATO launches an operation through Czechoslovakia, maybe in an
effort to shear it away from the Warsaw Pact
 
56. FRENCH ALLIANCE– France allies itself with someone and before they can surrender,
the mushrooms sprout
  
57. ARABIAN CLANDESTINE– A covert Soviet operation to secure or destroy the oil
reserves in Saudi Arabia leads to escalation
 
58. GABON REBELLION– Yet another African hotspot during the Cold War
 
59. NORTHERN MAXIMUM– Soviet operation against the Northern Flank of NATO, or
perhaps Sweden.
60. Danish Paramilitary– The Danes sponsoring and training paramilitary groups in the
East Bloc to carry out raids and strikes against Soviet targets.
61. SEATO Takeover– Worst case result of the domino theory following Vietnam
 
62. Hawaiian Escalation– Pearl Harbor II? A Soviet or Chinese attack on the US naval
base leads to quick escalation.
 
63. Iranian Maneuver– Back during the Cold War this scenario could’ve referred to a
Soviet move against Iran to secure oil fields and/or a warm water port.
 
64. NATO Containment– The Soviet Union moves to limit NATO power and expansion
 
65. Swiss Incident– Swiss neutrality is breached in some form and it escalates
 
66. Cuban Minimal– A situation similar to Operation Urgent Fury leads to the Caribbean
exploding.
 
67. Chad Alert– Back in the 80s Libya and Chad were involved in a conflict that led to
French intervention three times. If the Soviets had decided to back their Libyan ally, the situation
could have escalated significantly.
 
68. Iceland Escalation– A Soviet military move to neutralize Iceland would have assured a
clash between the superpowers.
 
69. Vietnamese Retaliation– In the late 70s, China and Vietnam were not the best of
friends. In fact, China even invaded Vietnam in 1979. There was a lot of animosity between the
two former allies.
 
70. Syrian Provocation– Bekka Valley, Lebanon, terrorism….choose your poison.
 
71. Libyan Local– A clash between Libya and Egypt or another neighboring state draws in
the Superpowers.
 
72. Gabon takeover– Omar Bongo would never have gone quietly into the night. It
would’ve gotten ugly quick.
 
73. Romanian War– Nicolae Ceaușescu was something of an East Bloc maverick. If he
had stepped out of line, the Soviets may have come down hard on him. A Western response
might have enflamed the entire continent.
 
74. Middle East Offensive– Soviet thrust to capture Saudi Arabia or Iran.
 
 75. Denmark Massive– Whoever controls Denmark controls the Baltic Sea. The Soviets
had their eye on Jutland for much of the Cold War and any move against Western Europe would
have begun with a large operation against Denmark.
 
76. Chile Confrontation– Chile and Argentina clash.
 
77. South African Subversion– Think back to the 80s. Apartheid was still enforced in
South Africa, Pretoria had nuclear devices, and the Border War was underway. It could’ve ended
very badly.
 
78. USSR Alert– The Soviet Union prepares for military operations on a global scale. Their
conventional and strategic forces go on alert. The US responds in kind………
 
79. Nicaraguan Thrust– Ronald Reagan’s worst nightmare. Nicaragua, backed by war
materials from Russia and possibly manpower from Cuba, takes to the offensive in Central
America.

80. GREENLAND DOMESTIC– This one is interesting. Greenland is Danish territory but
hosted a number of important US military installations during the Cold War. It still does today, as
a matter of fact. The population is very small too. The best spark I can think of is a Soviet backed
insurrection that targets US bases there, especially the BMEWS radar site.
 
81. ICELAND HEAVY-Large scale air and naval combat between NATO and the Warsaw
Pact for control of Iceland.
 
82. KENYA OPTION– During the Cold War Kenya was viewed as a strategic vanguard
against communist influences from Ethiopia and Tanzania. A Soviet backed move against the
nation could’ve backfired and led to escalation.
 
83. PACIFIC DEFENSE– Soviet or Chinese offensive in the Pacific resulting in a US and
allied defense.
 
84. UGANDA MAXIMUM- The Ugandan Bush War boils over into a regional contest for
control of East Africa.
 
85. THAI SUBVERSION– Vietnamese forces made limited incursions into Thailand in the
late 70s and 80s. Compound that with an effort to stoke internal flames by Vietnam and/or the
PRC, and the stage could be set for a major conflict.
 
86. ROMANIAN STRIKE– Ceausescu was a maverick. Either he lashes out, or the Soviets
decide to intervene and remove him from power.
 
87. PAKISTAN SOVEREIGNTY– A situation where the survival of Pakistan is threatened.
Internal insurrection, Indian invasion, or possibly a Soviet invasion out of Afghanistan.
 
88. AFGHAN MISDIRECTION– Basically, what the Soviets experienced during their time in
Afghanistan.
 
89. ETHIOPIAN LOCAL– East Africa was a tinderbox in the late 70s and early 80s. Even
after the Cold War, conflicts between Ethiopia and its neighbors continued.
  
90. ITALIAN TAKEOVER– The Communist Party enjoyed popularity in Italy. If they’d
gained control through elections and demanded the removal of NATO forces from Italian soil, the
situation could have escalated. NATO moves in, the Soviets move to support the communists
and things go downhill quick.
 
91. VIETNAMESE INCIDENT– Border incident with China, tensions with Thailand.
 
92. ENGLISH PREEMPTIVE- They didn’t call Margaret Thatcher the “Iron Lady” for
nothing. Perhaps the British received intelligence that the Russians were going to attack and
decided to get their licks in first. That’s what pre-emption is all about, really.
 
93. DENMARK ALTERNATE– The Soviets move to capture Denmark using one of their
secondary war plans instead of the primary one.
 
94. THAI CONFRONTATION-Similar to the previous Thailand-themed scenarios. Conflict
with Vietnam and/or Myanmar.
 
95. TAIWAN SURPRISE– PRC invasion of Taiwan obtains strategic surprise.
 
96. BRAZILIAN STRIKE– Brazil strikes Argentina, Argentina hits back and suddenly South
America is in flames.
 
97. VENEZUELA SUDDEN– Border clashes and tension with Columbia reach the boiling
point. Out of the blue, Venezuela invades.
 
98. MAYLASIAN ALERT– Sino-Malay sectarian violence in Kuala Lumpur brings threats
from the PRC. Malaysia goes on alert, China moves in ostensibly to ‘protect its citizens’ in
Malaysia and before long the area is a cauldron.
 
99. ISRAEL DISCRETIONARY– Discreet Israeli action abroad (intelligence gathering,
surgical strikes, commando raid) is unsuccessful. Israel is painted as the aggressor and the Arab
world stands up to confront Tel Aviv.

100. LIBYAN ACTION– Think Gulf of Sidra in the 1980s. In 1981, US Navy F-14s shot down
two Libyan fighters during a period of heightened tension. In 1986, US and Libyan air and naval
forces mixed it up and later, USAF and US Navy aircraft bombed targets in Tripoli and Benghazi.
In 1989, Navy F-14s shot down Libyan fighters again. Any of these incidents could’ve spilled
over into a much larger conflict.

101. PALESTINIAN TACTICAL– What if the First Intifada had gone beyond protests and
riots? What if Syria had contributed equipment, weapons and advisors to the PLO and the
uprising took the form of a more organized and deadly offensive against Israel?

102. NATO ALTERNATE– Confusing title. A Soviet move against NATO using an
alternative to its war plans or vice versa?
 103. CYPRUS MANEUVER– Cyprus was a bastion of instability from the 1974 coup onward
into the 80s. If either Greece or Turkey had moved unilaterally to take over the island there it
could have escalated quickly and gone in a direction that nobody had thought possible.

104. EGYPT MISDIRECTION– An Egyptian move against Libya goes awry and brings in
Soviet assistance for its Libyan allies.

105. BANGLADESH THRUST– In the late 1970s, when this list was originally put together
(years before the movie) Bangladesh was in a period of political disarray. Ziaur Rahman came to
power in 1979 and was a popular president. It’s not inconceivable to imagine that Rahman, had
he not been assassinated in 1981, could have prepared and executed an offensive against one
of the nation’s South Asian neighbors.

106. KENYA DEFENSE– Kenya finds itself under attack by an external or internal enemy.

107. BANGLADESH CONTAINMENT– Unlike the Bangladesh scenario previous, this one
revolves around containing an aggressive and outward looking Bangladesh.

108. VIETNAMESE STRIKE– Vietnam moves against one of its neighbors.

109. ALBANIAN CONTAINMENT– This one is a bit hard to swallow; Hoxa and Albania’s
aspirations needing to be checked.
110. GABON SURPRISE– Omar Bongo was unpredictable and deadly. He could have
taken Gabon over the edge at any time.

111. IRAQ SOVEREIGNTY– An internal uprising (Iranian backed?) against the Ba’ath party
and Saddam Hussein.

112. VIETNAMESE SUDDEN– Similar to STRIKE, only faster

113. LEBANON INTERDICTION– This one actually became reality. Think Lebanon 1982-
834

114. TAIWAN DOMESTIC- Chinese backed opposition groups sew political chaos on

115. ALGERIAN SOVEREIGNTY– Social unrest was common in Algeria from the late 70s
through the 80s. Libya or another outside nation-state player might have tried to turn the situation
to its favor and chip away at Algeria’s status as a sovereign nation.

116. ARABIAN STRIKE– A Soviet move into the Arabian Peninsula to seize the Saudi oil
fields.

117. ATLANTIC SUDDEN– The Soviets begin a war against NATO with a major, sudden
effort to close the Atlantic.

118. MONGOLIAN THRUST– Either Mongolia moving against China or the Soviet Union, or
perhaps a Sino-Soviet encounter within the borders of Mongolia.
 119. POLISH DECOY– A Soviet gambit to take attention away from another region where it
will be making moves in the near future.

120. ALASKAN DISCRETIONARY– A low profile operation by the Soviets to disrupt the
Alaskan pipeline or possibly disable US early warning radars in preparation for a first strike. As
Alaska is US territory, this would be a direct attack upon the United States and the possibility of
escalation is very high.

121. CANADIAN THRUST– A Soviet military move into Canadian territory. With East Bloc
forces on North American soil the situation would become volatile very fast.

122. ARABIAN LIGHT– A regional conflict spills over and provides the spark for a global
conflict. The Iran-Iraq War certainly had the potential to serve as a catalyst.

123. AFRICAN DOMESTIC– Apartheid was ugly. The South African government was a
pariah and the ANC was backed indirectly by the Soviet Union. If Apartheid had exploded, the
superpowers would have been drawn in. While the US had no love for the South African
government, it could not allow the Soviets to gain total control of resource-rich South Africa.

124. TUNISIAN INCIDENT– Libya and Tunisia clash in an isolated action on land or at sea
and it escalates.

125. MALAYSIAN MANEUVER– China begins making political and military moves to gain
control of Malaysia.

126. JAMAICA DECOY– Cuba instigates an action in Jamaica to divert attention away from
Soviet action elsewhere. The US responds with a Grenada-like operation and it’s all downhill
from there.

127. MALAYSIAN MINIMAL– Communist insurgency rekindles in Malaysia

128. RUSSIAN SOVEREIGNTY– This could refer to an invasion of Russia by the PRC.
Possible during the time period. It’s the only realistic possibility.

129. CHAD OPTION– In the late 70s and early 80s, the Libyan-Chad conflict raged. French
involvement increased the potential of a wider clash between the US and Soviet Union.

130. BANGLADESH WAR– Bangladesh’s leader moved away from his country’s strong ties
with India and the Soviet Union in the early 80s in favor of a strong relationship with the West. It
could have sparked war with India.

131. BURMESE CONTAINMENT– Again, Burma’s inclusion on this list mystifies me.

132. ASIAN THEATERWIDE– Asia explodes. Korea, PRC-USSR, US-USSR, PRC-

133. BULGARIAN CLANDESTINE-NATO or independent Turkish covert actions against

135. EGYPT SURGICAL– Libyan surgical strike against an Egyptian target. Political or
economic.

136. CZECH HEAVY– Confrontation between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in Southern
Germany and Czechoslovakia. NATO incursion perhaps.

137. TAIWAN CONFRONTATION– The PRC launches an offensive to reclaim the ‘lost
province.’

138. GREENLAND MAXIMUM– Greenland Incursion times 5.

139. UGANDA OFFENSIVE– The Ugandans go on the offensive and occupy Congo.

140. CASPIAN DEFENSE– A NATO offensive on its southern flank, or alternatively,