Barack Obama, The Idealistic Realist, 2009-2017, Part I: The Middle East and East Asia
Barack Obama, The Idealistic Realist, 2009-2017, Part I: The Middle East and East Asia
Barack Obama, The Idealistic Realist, 2009-2017, Part I: The Middle East and East Asia
Barack Obama,
the Idealistic Realist, 2009–2017,
Part I: The Middle East and East Asia
Barack Obama entered the White House intending to emulate the more
realistic foreign policy philosophy of the first President Bush without aban-
doning American ideals. However, more often than not, his foreign policies
reflected the greater emphasis he placed on realistic rather than idealistic
considerations.
Nowhere were the realistic and idealistic components of Obama’s foreign
policy more difficult to blend than in the Middle East. In Eastern Asia, on
the other hand, he was confronted with the rising economic and military
power of China and the threat of an increasingly nuclear-armed North
Korea (Fig. 6.1).
relations. After serving for a couple of years as a writer and editor for
Business International Corporation, in 1985 he took a position as a com-
munity organizer on Chicago’s largely impoverished Far South Side.
Three years later, he entered Harvard University’s law school, where he
was the first African American to serve as president of the Harvard Law
Review. He graduated magna cum laude in 1991. The following year,
Obama met Chicago native Michelle Robinson, a young lawyer. The two
married and subsequently had two daughters.
After receiving his law degree, Obama moved to Chicago where he
became active in the Democratic Party. He organized Project Vote, a
drive that registered tens of thousands of African Americans on voting
rolls and in so doing helped Democrat Bill Clinton win Illinois and cap-
ture the presidency in 1992. While lecturing on constitutional law at the
University of Chicago and working as an attorney on civil rights issues
between 1992 and 2004, Obama wrote his first book, Dreams from My
Father (1995), which traced the lives of his now-deceased father and his
extended family in Kenya. In 1996, Obama was elected to the Illinois
Senate, where he served three terms, from 1997 to 2004. While cam-
paigning for the US Senate in 2004, he gained national recognition by
delivering the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention.
After his election to the Senate that November, his political star rose rap-
idly. In 2008, he won the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination
after defeating Hillary Clinton in a close primary campaign. He then
defeated Republican nominee John McCain in the general election and
was inaugurated president on January 20, 2009.1
terrorism, and nuclear war. This required, among other actions, steps
to ensure the safety of nuclear materials as well as a strengthening of the
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. To that end, he was particularly inter-
ested in negotiating a deal with Iran that would halt its effort to develop
a nuclear arsenal. He also wanted to engage the Russians in nuclear arms
reduction talks. And he intended to commit the United States to reduc-
ing climate-warming gas emissions, which would require intensive dip-
lomatic engagement with other nations, particularly China. In addition,
he wanted to improve US relations with the Muslim world by undoing
the perception held by many Muslims during Bush’s presidency that the
United States was at war with Islam. Transforming the US relationship
with the Muslim world, in turn, required peace between Israel and the
Palestinians, another problem Obama intended to address.
deeply corrupt and extremely unpopular in the eyes of the Afghan peo-
ple. Many Afghans were even more critical of the continuing American
presence in their country, especially as mounting US air strikes killed
noncombatants. The ethnic diversity of the Afghan people also contrib-
uted to the difficulty of unifying the country around the national gov-
ernment. In addition to the Taliban, local warlords and armed groups
challenged its authority.13 Finally, the United States and its NATO part-
ners never deployed enough troops in Afghanistan to pacify the country.
Although total NATO forces peaked at 150,000 military personnel, this
number was well short of the 500,000 troops required by US counter-
insurgency doctrine. The gap was supposed to be filled by training
Afghan police and army troops, but they proved notoriously unreliable
and remained substantially unprepared.14
Another reason for the US failure in Afghanistan was the relative
safe haven the Taliban found in neighboring Pakistan, and the contin-
uing support they received from the Pakistani military and its main spy
agency, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence. By supporting the
Afghan Taliban, Pakistan’s generals hoped to counter India, Pakistan’s
traditional rival, by creating a bloc of Muslim nations, comprising
Pakistan, Kashmir, Afghanistan, and eventually all of Central Asia.15
Iraq and ISIS
Obama also was only partially successful in achieving his goal of with-
drawing all US military forces from Iraq. Taking advantage of an agree-
ment that George W. Bush had negotiated with the Iraqis requiring
the withdrawal of all US forces by 2011, Obama reduced US military
personnel to only 150 by the end of that year, a number that remained at
that level for about three years. However, early in the summer of 2014,
Obama once again was compelled to react militarily to events in Iraq.
The Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
was threatened by a rapidly spreading Sunni uprising spearheaded by a
former Al Qaeda affiliate, the so-called Islamic State in Iraq and Syria
(ISIS). This jihadist group held to a fundamentalist doctrine of Sunni
Islam called Wahhabism or Salafism.
Taking advantage of the hatred of Iraq’s Sunnis for the Shiite-
dominated Iraqi government, ISIS quickly conquered territory on
both sides of the Iraq–Syria border, including Iraq’s second largest city,
Mosul. In the face of the ISIS advance, the US-trained and equipped
Iraqi army disintegrated, leaving Baghdad, the capital city, in jeopardy.
The besieged Iraqi government begged Obama to intervene once
again with US military power, but he refused to do so as long as Maliki
remained in office. However, with Maliki’s resignation imminent, on
August 8, 2014, the United States launched air strikes against ISIS forces
in Iraq and, a month later, against those inside Syria. And despite his
pledge to keep US ground troops out of Iraq, the near collapse of the
Iraqi army in the face of the ISIS advance compelled Obama to gradually
reinsert US ground forces into Iraq until by 2016 they numbered 4400.
Critics blamed Obama for the new war in Iraq, charging that he was
too anxious to get US troops out of that country and, consequently, he
removed them too quickly. But the president’s defenders point out that
the Iraqi parliament refused to grant the immunities that would have
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 165
Obama publicly supported the right of the Egyptian people to elect their
own government, Morsi’s Islamist strategy alarmed Israel and the conserva-
tive Arab regimes that the United States had supported for decades.
Many Egyptians also became alarmed by Morsi’s efforts to turn Egypt
into an Islamic-based republic. They again took to the streets demon-
strating against the Morsi government, which prompted the Egyptian
army, in late June and early July 2013, to remove Morsi from power,
in the process killing or imprisoning several thousand members of the
Muslim Brotherhood. The following May, the army’s leader, General
Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, was elected president. Despite a legal obligation
to suspend aid in the event of a coup, the Obama administration main-
tained the flow of US military aid to Egypt, which amounted to $1.3
billion per year. Said Secretary of State Kerry, the Egyptian army was
“in effect … restoring democracy” and averting civil war.18 Once again,
Obama’s idealistic side succumbed to the reality of the new order in
Egypt. He obviously was not going to intervene in Egypt to restore a
democratically elected government.
Intervention in Libya
Stung by criticism that he had not done enough to save democracy in
Egypt, Obama reluctantly agreed to limited US military intervention in
neighboring Libya. The US action was prompted by an uprising, begin-
ning in February 2011, against the regime of long-time Libyan dictator
Muammar el-Qaddafi. Concerned about the possibility of a massacre of
civilians, like those that had occurred in the Balkans during the 1990s,
British Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas
Sarkozy persuaded Obama to intervene in the Libyan civil war. Obama
justified his decision to get involved by saying, “To brush aside America’s
responsibility as a leader and—more profoundly—our responsibilities to
our fellow human beings under such circumstances, would have been a
betrayal of who we are.”19 However, fearing a repetition of the extended
US ground wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, he insisted that NATO take the
lead in the operation to which he committed only US military aircraft.
Although the UN Security Council authorized the intervention in
order to protect Libyan noncombatants, the allied effort quickly mor-
phed into an ultimately successful campaign to get rid of Qaddafi.
In August, with allied military support, rebel forces compelled him to
flee Tripoli, the Libyan capital, but he was captured and killed by rebel
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 167
Syria
The Libyan experience reinforced Obama’s resolve to avoid US involve-
ment in the Syrian civil war, which began in March 2011 with massive
demonstrations against President Bashar al-Assad. After Assad attempted
to violently suppress the demonstrations, opposition militias formed and
the conflict soon blossomed into a full-fledged civil war. Some rebels had
a democratic motive for challenging Assad’s regime, but the rebellion
also had sectarian and international components. It pitted Syria’s Sunni
majority against Assad’s ruling Shiite minority. Assad received vital mili-
tary support from Shiite Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, while his oppo-
nents, with the notable exception of ISIS rebels, received considerable
assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Sunni-run Persian Gulf states.
While Obama was determined to stay out of the Syrian conflict, after
witnessing repeated government atrocities against civilians, in August
2011 he said that “the time has come for President Assad to step aside.”
But Assad had no intention of giving up power, and with US forces with-
drawing from Iraq and Afghanistan, Obama was not about to send US
troops to Syria to oust him. However, in May 2012, the president said
that he might be willing to order a US military response if as he put it,
“we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or
being utilized.”21
On August 21, 2013, Obama’s “red line” was crossed when hun-
dreds of Syrian civilians died as a result of chemical weapon attacks by
government forces. But at virtually the last minute, Obama called off
168 R. E. POWASKI
As if the Arab Spring, Syria, and Iran were not enough to strain
US-Saudi relations, another was the declining price of oil. Largely
because of rising US shale oil production, Saudi oil exports to the
United States declined by more than 50% from April to December
2014. The rising oil production and resulting oversupply caused world
oil prices to plummet from a June 2014 peak of $110 per barrel to less
than half that amount in 2015, and less than $27 per barrel in early
2016. Although the price of oil recovered to around $50 per barrel by
the end of that year, there was little prospect of it returning to the hal-
cyon level of $100 per barrel. As a result, the Saudis were compelled to
draw down their financial reserves to compensate for their declining oil
income. They also tried to drive American and other oil producers out of
the market, initially by persuading the OPEC oil cartel to keep pumping
oil in order to force high-cost producers—like US shale oil drillers—to
reduce their output. As a result, after September 2014, US shale drillers
were compelled to cut the number of their rigs by 75%.
However, on November 30, 2016, the Saudis reversed course and
supported an OPEC decision for a small cut in the cartel’s oil produc-
tion, less than 1% of global production. But that amount was hardly
enough to significantly dent the massive global oversupply. As a conse-
quence, some analysts believed that Saudi Arabia may exhaust its finan-
cial reserves by 2020 if oil prices remained at their low level. To stave off
that possibility, the Saudi government would have to make deep cuts in
the country’s generous social safety net. However, this would risk ignit-
ing a social and political upheaval that would threaten the continued sur-
vival of the Saudi regime.25
Despite the repressive nature of the Saudi regime and the problems
the United States had experienced in dealing with it, the Obama admin-
istration argued that the relationship with Saudi Arabia was vital to US
security. Both countries considered ISIS and Al Qaeda as threats, and
Saudi Arabia maintained a “robust counter-terrorism relationship with
the United States” to combat them. And both countries wanted to avoid
any disruption of the vast energy supplies that flow through the Persian
Gulf. In addition, neither the United States nor Saudi Arabia wanted
Iran to dominate the region. Finally, both countries sought a negotiated
settlement of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. Obviously, these essentially
realistic considerations eclipsed the idealistic arguments of those who
criticized Obama for supporting a repressive Saudi Arabia.26
172 R. E. POWASKI
Iran
Of all the Middle Eastern issues that Obama inherited, he was most con-
cerned about the threat of an Iran equipped with nuclear weapons. He
feared that the actualization of that possibility would set off a nuclear
arms race in the Middle East, particularly if the Saudis reacted by acquir-
ing their own nuclear weapons, as they threatened they would do. Before
that could happen, however, a war between Israel and Iran was more
likely to occur. The Israelis warned repeatedly that they would not tol-
erate the development of a nuclear weapon capable Iran—whose leader
had called for the destruction of Israel.
The Bush administration clearly had failed to address Iran’s nuclear
threat by refusing to talk to the Iranians. As a consequence, Iran
moved virtually unhindered toward a nuclear weapon capability dur-
ing Bush’s presidency. When Bush came into office in 2001, Iran did
not have any centrifuges for enriching uranium, which is one of the two
pathways to producing nuclear material for a bomb, the other being plu-
tonium separation. But by the time he left office in January 2009, Iran
had almost 7000 centrifuges. In addition, Iran had built the largest force
of ballistic missiles in the Middle East, which soon would have the capa-
bility to reach targets in Israel as well as Saudi Arabia.27
To eliminate Iran’s nuclear threat, Obama embarked on a complex
“dual track” strategy that employed both diplomacy and various forms of
pressure. He began the diplomatic approach in his first inaugural address,
by offering an “outstretched hand” to US foes like Iran. He also sent
letters to Iran’s supreme leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, with an offer
to improve relations. And, for the first time in decades, he allowed sen-
ior US diplomats to meet with their Iranian counterparts. Predictably,
the Iranians resisted such overtures, prompting Obama to ratchet up the
pressure.
One form the pressure took was the insertion of “worms” into
Iranian computers, which set back the pace of Iran’s nuclear develop-
ment. Another was the exposure of Iranian nuclear deception. US intel-
ligence revealed the construction of a supposedly secret Iranian nuclear
enrichment facility deep inside a mountain near the Iranian city of Qom.
Obama used the exposure of illicit Iranian nuclear activity to generate
support for international economic sanctions on Iran, which severely
damaged the Iranian economy. Inflation soared by more than 40%, the
value of the Iranian currency plummeted, and Iran’s oil exports fell by
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 173
more than half with the loss of tens of billions of dollars of sorely needed
income. In addition, foreign investors and big multinational companies
fled from Iran. Obama also applied military pressure against the Iranians.
During his first year in office, he directed the Pentagon to prepare for
military action against Iran. As a consequence, 35,000 US military per-
sonnel, the most advanced fighter aircraft, and over forty naval ships
(including an aircraft carrier strike group) were placed in striking dis-
tance of Iran.28
The international pressure finally compelled the Iranians to negoti-
ate. In March 2013, US diplomats began a series of secret bilateral talks
with the Iranians. The talks picked up momentum after Hassan Rouhani
was elected president of Iran in June 2013. Rouhani was described as
more moderate, pragmatic and willing to negotiate than his predeces-
sor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. As a result, in November of that year, an
interim agreement, known as the Joint Plan of Action, was negotiated
by the so-called P 5+1 countries—the five permanent members of the
United Nations Security Council (Britain, France, Russia, China, and the
United States) plus Germany. Under its terms, Tehran agreed to freeze
many of its nuclear activities for six months, the United States and other
countries lifted some of the sanctions they had imposed on Iran, and talks
began on a permanent settlement, which was to be concluded within six
months. However, a final agreement was not reached until July 14, 2015.
By its terms, Iran agreed to accept restrictions on its nuclear program,
all of which would last for at least a decade and some longer, and to sub-
mit to increasingly intensified international inspections. In return, the
agreement provided Iran with broad relief from US, UN, and multilat-
eral sanctions on Iran’s energy, financial activities, shipping, and other
sectors of the Iranian economy. On January 16, 2016, the International
Atomic Energy Agency certified that Iran had complied with the stip-
ulated nuclear dismantlement commitments under the agreement.
Consequently, some sanctions were suspended or lifted. Analyst Marc
Lynch called Obama’s nuclear diplomacy with Iran “a textbook exam-
ple of a successfully conceived and implemented foreign policy: priorities
outlined, resources allocated, outcome achieved.”29
Nevertheless, by the end of Obama’s presidency, the Iranians did not
experience the full economic benefits they had expected to receive from
the deal. Iran gained access to about $50 billion in assets that were fro-
zen overseas, new foreign bank accounts were opened, and their oil
exports doubled to two million barrels a day. But the Iranians did not see
174 R. E. POWASKI
the level of foreign investment that Rouhani had promised the nuclear
deal would facilitate. And while international sanctions were largely
removed, most American secondary sanctions remained in place. They
had been imposed because of Iran’s support for terrorism, its human
rights abuses, its interference in specified countries in the region, and its
missile and advanced conventional weapons programs. In addition, reg-
ulations barring transactions between US and Iranian banks stayed in
force. The resulting ban on access to US dollars made risk-averse foreign
banks nervous about doing business in Iran. As a consequence, Rouhani
and other Iranian moderates came under severe criticism from Iranian
hard-liners who never liked the nuclear deal in the first place.30
Iran’s hard-liners were not the only opponents of the nuclear deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called it “a mistake of his-
toric proportions.”31 Rather than eliminating the threat of Iran eventu-
ally developing a nuclear arsenal, he argued that the agreement permitted
the Iranians to retain a significant number of centrifuges and keep intact
their entire nuclear infrastructure. As a result, Iran would remain a
nuclear threshold state, with the ability to scrap the agreement at any
time and, shortly thereafter, “breakout” out of it with a nuclear weapon
test. Although the Iranians accepted a number of the nuclear deal’s
restrictions on their enrichment activities, Obama conceded that even if
the agreement lasted its full fifteen-year duration, Iran’s breakout time
upon the expiration of the deal would “almost be down to zero.” Even
so, he argued, the deal was worth it because it bought time.32
While Netanyahu was persuaded by his advisers, as well as the Obama
administration, to refrain from launching unilateral Israeli military action
against Iran’s nuclear facilities, it did not stop him from appealing to
the president’s Republican rivals to reject the deal. His speech before
Congress to that end added fuel to the personal hostility that character-
ized the relationship between the two leaders. However, a Republican-
initiated Senate resolution to reject the nuclear deal was defeated on
September 9, 2015, after a procedural vote fell two votes short of the 60
needed to break a Democratic filibuster.
the Iranians. And while he obviously was not Israel’s enemy, he did not
want to appear like one either, particularly before his presidential reelec-
tion bid in 2012. At the same time, he also did not want the West Bank
to fall under the control of Hamas. Consequently, he also provided the
Palestinian Authority with considerable military and economic aid.
In the minds of some critics, however, by assisting the Palestinian
Authority to police the West Bank, the Obama administration also
helped to perpetuate its occupation by the Israelis, thereby increasing
the appeal of Hamas among the Palestinian people. This impression was
reinforced in February 2011, when the United States vetoed a UN reso-
lution declaring Israeli settlements in the West Bank illegal. The follow-
ing September, Obama also declared that the United States would veto
any Palestinian application for statehood to the United Nations, a step
Abbas was considering in order to pressure the Israelis. Obama justified
his warning by asserting that “there can be no shortcut to peace.”35
However, very late in his presidency, on December 23, 2016, Obama
permitted his UN ambassador to abstain during the vote on a Security
Council resolution condemning Israel’s settlements on the West Bank.
Although the US abstention was a significant departure from previous
American vetoes of similar UN resolutions, the move had only sym-
bolic value since Netanyahu had no intention of abiding by it. Nor
was he at all willing to consider the administration’s plan for an even-
tual Israeli-Palestinian peace treaty, which was outlined in a speech by
Kerry on December 28.36 Instead, the Israeli prime minister denounced
the Obama administration and looked forward to dealing with the
new American president, Donald Trump, whose attitude toward Israel
seemed to be much more compatible with Netanyahu’s objectives.
on North Korea, they were not enough to dissuade the North Koreans
from continuing to develop their nuclear weapon program. The Chinese
obviously did not want the North Korean economy to collapse and
bring down its communist regime. However, China did participate in
the international talks that produced the agreement restricting Iran’s
nuclear activities. In addition, Xi signed the Paris Climate Agreement
in December 2015. Its long-term goal was one of limiting global tem-
perature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above
pre-industrial levels. However, the agreement itself remains non-binding
and lacks provisions for inspection and enforcement.45
On the downside, the Chinese persisted in violating human rights.
They also continued to strike trade and investment deals with oppres-
sive regimes that were the objects of international sanctions. In addition,
China joined Russia in routinely opposing UN Security Council resolu-
tions aimed at human rights violators, especially countries such as Sudan,
Iran, and Syria. In March 2014, after the Russians annexed Crimea,
China supported Russia by abstaining on a UN General Assembly resolu-
tion affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
for military purposes. The Chinese also drilled for oil in the waters off
the contested Paracel Islands and kept Vietnamese ships away from the
area. China also sent fishing boats, escorted by coast guard ships, into
the waters around the Senkaku Islands, which are claimed and controlled
by Japan.47
In order to enhance China’s ability to defend its territorial claims in
the surrounding seas, Xi also accelerated China’s military modernization.
The Chinese deployed hundreds of accurate, conventionally-tipped bal-
listic missiles with the ability to attack Taiwan, as well as a smaller num-
ber of ballistic missiles capable of reaching US bases in Japan and the
western Pacific. In addition, the Chinese developed a terminally-guided,
anti-ship missile capable of striking US aircraft carriers. In short, China
acquired the ability to challenge US control of the high seas as well as to
attack America’s regional allies.
The Obama administration reacted by pointing out that China’s mar-
itime claims in the South China Sea violate international laws designed
to uphold freedom of navigation for all nations. Accordingly, US mili-
tary surveillance aircraft flew over the Chinese-built artificial islands in
2015 and 2016, and US warships sailed within 12 nautical miles of the
disputed Chinese installations on both the Spratly and Paracel Islands.48
The administration also took steps to strengthen longtime US alliances
with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines, and courted new partners,
including Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam.
Japan
Japan was another country that felt threatened by China’s expansive
claims to East Asian territorial waters. China challenged Japan’s claim to
the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited Japanese-controlled islands
in the East China Sea. Although the islands have only limited intrin-
sic value, they do give the Japanese control of the access routes to the
Pacific Ocean and its seabed, as well as to fishing, navigation, and hydro-
carbon deposits in the surrounding waters. Japan’s dependence on for-
eign oil is one of that nation’s greatest vulnerabilities. Addressing that
existential threat prompted Japan to go to war with the United States in
1941. Consequently, the Japanese are hyper-vigilant about any Chinese
threat to block the sea-lanes through which ships deliver foreign oil to
Japan. It explains their alarmed reaction to the Chinese declaration, in
2013, that they had established an Air Defense Identification Zone over
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 183
the Japanese-occupied Senkaku Islands. China also sent coast guard ships
to defend Chinese fishing and oil exploration in waters surrounding
those islands.49
Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, reacted to the Chinese naval
challenge by putting the Japanese navy and coast guard on alert and by
turning to the United States for support. The Obama administration
responded by assuring the Japanese that the Senkaku Islands fall under
the protection of Article 5 of the US-Japanese Security Treaty.
Abe also ratcheted up his previous efforts to expand Japan’s military
forces. In 2011, his government increased Japan’s defense budget by
nearly three percent per annum over the following five years. In 2013,
Abe pushed through the Japanese Diet (parliament) legislation reinter-
preting the clause in that nation’s constitution prohibiting Japan from
waging war except in defense of the Japanese home islands. The new
constitutional interpretation permits Japan’s military forces to participate
in overseas combat missions, thereby enabling the Japanese to assist the
United States and other allies if they are attacked.50
Paradoxically, while China’s new assertiveness strengthened the
US-Japanese security relationship, the rising economies of China and
other East Asian countries were major causes of the declining significance
of the US-Japanese trade relationship. Japanese trade flowed increasingly
toward East Asia and away from the United States. Conversely, US trade
with Mexico and China surpassed US trade with Japan. Japan’s ability
to trade with the United States also was affected by the continuing poor
performance of its economy, which was damaged by the severe global
economic recession that began in 2008, as well as by the tsunami and
nuclear accidents that were triggered by an earthquake in March 2011.
As a result of Japan’s economic decline, the Japanese were no longer
viewed by Americans as the competitive threat that they were considered
to be in the 1980s and early 1990s.
Nevertheless, a number of US-Japanese trade problems persisted. One
was Japan’s failure to remove long-standing barriers to US exports, espe-
cially automobiles and beef. The Obama administration used the leverage
provided by offering US support for Japan’s admission to the Trans-
Pacific Trade Partnership to win some Japanese trade concessions related
to the importation of US beef and automobiles. While Japan’s market
was not entirely opened to US trade, the Obama administration believed
that more progress on that issue could be made once the TPP went into
effect.51
184 R. E. POWASKI
The Koreas
South Korea was another US ally that was challenged by China. While
the Chinese did not directly threaten South Korea militarily, its ongo-
ing economic support for North Korea’s communist regime facilitated
the development of that country’s nuclear arsenal, which threatened not
only South Korea but Japan as well—and potentially even the continental
United States.
Although China had worked closely with the United States on pre-
vious North Korean denuclearization negotiations, especially those
between 2006 and 2008, the talks broke down in the last year of the
Bush administration. For the first three years of Obama’s presidency, the
United States made no effort to resume those talks, believing that North
Korea first would have to commit itself to denuclearization. However, in
early 2012, North Korea’s new hereditary leader, Kim Jong-un (the son
of Kim Jong-il), expressed his interest in resuming the negotiations, and
the Obama administration indicated its interest in doing so as well. But
the North Koreans scuttled the possibility of reviving the talks by using
ballistic missile technology to launch a satellite. And, in early 2013, the
North Koreans conducted another nuclear weapons test, cut off commu-
nications with South Korea, and warned that the outbreak of war was
imminent.
As a result, Obama made no further effort to resume the talks for the
balance of his presidency. Instead, following North Korea’s two nuclear
tests and multiple missile launches in 2016, the United States and South
Korea responded with a more coercive policy. First, they successfully per-
suaded the UN Security Council to expand economic sanctions on North
Korea. In February 2016, Congress also expanded unilateral US sanc-
tions against the North Korean government. In addition, in July 2016,
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 185
the United States and South Korea announced plans to deploy the Theater
High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ballistic missile defense (BMD) system
in South Korea. THAAD ostensibly would give the United States the capabil-
ity to destroy North Korean missiles launched against South Korea or Japan.
There was another, underlying, motive behind the THAAD decision,
that is, to get China to take a much harder line against North Korea. But
the Chinese were not prepared to take action that would risk bringing
about the collapse of North Korea. Not only did the Chinese fear that a
North Korean collapse would prompt tens of thousands of North Korean
refugees to flee across the border into China’s Manchurian provinces,
it could also lead to the reunification of a Korea allied to the United
States. Not surprisingly, the Chinese government reacted with hostility to
the THAAD deployment decision, denouncing it as a threat to China’s
nuclear deterrent capability and warning that it warranted an expansion
of China’s nuclear arsenal.52 The Chinese also threatened retaliatory eco-
nomic measures against South Korea, which had developed an extensive
trade relationship with China. The Chinese reduced South Korean tour-
ism in China and permitted Chinese to fish in South Korean waters.
South Korean President Park Geun-hye had attempted to cultivate a
stronger strategic relationship with China, partly to motivate a more vig-
orous Chinese stand against North Korea’s menacing actions. But after
it became obvious that Chinese pressure had failed to curb Pyongyang’s
provocations, Park approved the deployment of the THAAD system.
However, the Obama administration was unsuccessful in persuading the
South Koreans to cooperate more closely with Japan in building a com-
mon defense against China and North Korea, primarily because of lin-
gering issues related to Japan’s occupation of Korea before World War II.
In the end, Obama was no more successful in eliminating North Korea’s
nuclear menace than any of his presidential predecessors. In January
2017, the task of resolving that threat fell to his successor, Donald
Trump.
Notes
1. For a brief biography of Barack Obama, see the Miller Center, University
of Virginia, https://millercenter.org/president/obama.
2. Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (2011), 326–327.
3. Stephen J. Wayne, “Obama’s Personality and Performance,” in James A.
Thurber, ed., Obama in Office (2011), 70.
4. James Mann, The Obamians: The Struggle Inside the White House to
Redefine American Power (2012), 3.
5. Washington Post, February 5, 2015.
6. Katie Pavlich, “Brutal: Former Defense Secretaries Openly Slam
‘Inexperienced’ Obama White House War Micromanagement,”
Townhall, April 7, 2016.
7. Fred Lucas, “New Book Describes Rift Between Obama’s Nat’l Security
Adviser and His Political Team: ‘Water Bugs,’” CNS News, June 5, 2012,
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/new-book-describes-rift-be-
tween-obama-s-nat-l-security-adviser-and-his-political-team.
8. Mann, 11.
9. Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” The Atlantic (April 2016),
70–90.
10. Thomas J. Wright, All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the 21st
Century and the Future of American Power (2017), 172–173. David
Fitzgerald and David Ryan, Obama, US Foreign Policy and the Dilemmas
of Intervention (2014), 19–20.
11. Sean Kay, America’s Search for Security: The Triumph of Idealism and the
Return of Realism (2014), 175.
12. Woodward, 307.
13. Max Fisher and Amanda Taub, “Why Afghanistan’s War Defies
Solutions,” New York Times, August 24, 2017.
14. Kay, 172–173.
15. Peter Tomsen, “Pakistan: With Friends Like These,” World Policy Journal
(Fall 2011), http://www.worldpolicy.org/journal/fall2011/pakistan.
16. Martin Indyk, Bending History: Barack Obama’s Foreign Policy (2012),
91. Mark Landler, Alter Egos: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and the
Twilight Struggle over American Power (2016), 121–124.
17. Michael O’Hanlon, “How to Win in Iraq,” Foreign Affairs, August 12,
2014.
18. Shadi Hamid, “Islamism, the Arab Spring, and the Failure of America’s
Do-Nothing Policy in the Middle East,” The Atlantic Monthly, October 9, 2015.
19. Michael Mandelbaum, Mission Failure: America and the World in the Post-
Cold War Era (2016), 303.
6 BARACK OBAMA, THE IDEALISTIC REALIST, 2009–2017 … 189
43. Ariane C. Rosen, “Will the Past Repeat Itself? Examining the Accuracy
of a Cold War Analogy in Framing U.S.-China Relations,” Washington
Journal of Modern China, Vol. 12 (Spring 2016), 5.
44. “Xi Jinping,” Revolvy, undated. https://www.revolvy.com/main/index.
php?s=Xi%20Jinping&item_type=topic.
45. Lieber, 78.
46. Kay, 213.
47. Jennifer Lind, “Asia’s Other Revisionist Power: Why U.S. Grand Strategy
Unnerves China,” Foreign Affairs, March/April 2017.
48. Katie Hunt, “Showdown in the South China Sea: How Did We Get
Here?” CNN, August 2, 2016, www.cnn.com/2015/10/28/asia/
china-south-china-sea-disputes-explainer/.
49. Doug Bandow, “Are the Senkaku Islands Worth War Between China, Japan and
America?” The National Interest, February 13, 2017, http://nationalinterest.
org/feature/are-the-senkaku-islands-worth-war-between-china-japan-19403.
50. Thomas J. Christensen, The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a
Rising Power (2015), 109.
51. William H. Cooper, “U.S.-Japan Economic Relations: Significance,
Prospects, and Policy Options,” Congressional Research Service,
February 18, 2014, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32649.pdf.
52. Bonnie S. Glaser, Daniel G. Sofio, and David A. Parker, “The Good, the
THAAD, and the Ugly: China’s Campaign Against Deployment, and
What to Do About It,” Foreign Affairs, February 15, 2017.
(2016); Colin Dueck’s The Obama Doctrine: American Grand Strategy Today
(2015); Sean Kay’s America’s Search for Security: The Triumph of Idealism and
the Return of Realism (2014); and Thomas J. Wright’s All Measures Short
of War: The Contest for the 21st Century and the Future of American Power
(2017). See also Mark Landler, Alter Egos: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama,
and the Twilight Struggle over American Power (2016).
For Obama’s early decision to escalate US military involvement in Afghanistan,
see Bob Woodward, Obama’s Wars (2010). For his policies toward
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, see David Fitzgerald and David Ryan, Obama,
US Foreign Policy and the Dilemmas of Intervention (2014). See also Lloyd
C. Gardner, Killing Machine: The American Presidency in the Age of Drone
Warfare (2013).
For area studies, see Trita Parsi, Losing an Enemy: Obama, Iran, and the Triumph
of Diplomacy (2017); Angela E. Stent, The Limits of Partnership: U.S.–Russian
Relations in the Twenty-First Century (2014); and Thomas J. Christensen, The
China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (2015).