Lash Oresight: How To See The Invisible and Do The Impossible
Lash Oresight: How To See The Invisible and Do The Impossible
Lash Oresight: How To See The Invisible and Do The Impossible
FLASH FORESIGHT
How To See The Invisible
And Do The Impossible
DANIEL BURRUS with JOHN DAVID MANN
DANIEL BURRUS is a leading technology forecaster and business strategist. He is the founder and CEO of Burrus Research, a
consulting firm which monitors global advancements in technology. Mr. Burrus is a strategic advisor to leaders of numerous
Fortune 500 companies such as General Electric, IBM, Oracle, Microsoft, DuPont, Google, Procter & Gamble and American
Express. He is the author of six books including Technotrends. Mr. Burrus has founded and managed six successful firms. He is
a graduate of the University of Wisconsin.
JOHN DAVID MANN is a business and leadership writer. He is the coauthor of The Go-Giver, a Wall Street Journal bestseller.
The Web site for this book is at www.FlashForesight.com.
ISBN 978-1-77544-681-1
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Flash Foresight– Page 1
n There are also various soft trends bubbling away in How can you start with certainty when developing a new
the background as well – with a soft trend being business plan or trying to develop a next-generation
Seven triggers of flash foresights ! something that might happen in the future if all the product? It isn’t impossible. All you have to do is:
cards fall the right way. Soft trends are more
malleable because they’re not based on facts.
1 Start with certainty Your Draft Plan
Predicting whether the stock market will be up or
down tomorrow is a soft trend because there is no
Always base your strategies on what you know for Make a list of all the cyclic
foolproof system which can be used to make this
certain will happen in the future because of the hard changes you can see having
projection.
trends which are already in place. Don’t get boxed in by an impact on your plan
uncertainty and doubt – keep focusing on the things “Hard trends make the future visible. Once you see the
you’re certain about. distinction of hard trends, you start opening all sorts of
doors to new possibilities. It’s purely a question of Then add in a list of all the more
knowing how and where to look, and taking the time to obvious linear changes you can
Typically when you start planning your future, you’ll get
do the looking.” be certain will have an impact
stressed out about all the things you don’t know and all
the things you can’t do. To generate some genuine flash – Daniel Burrus !
foresights, put those uncertainties to one side and keep To give a few examples, based on the hard trend the
focusing on what you can be certain about. List all the major hard trends
baby boomer generation will be retiring in the years which are already at work
There are many things you already know about the ahead in record numbers, billion-dollar-ideas of the in your industry
future: future will include:
n Cyclical changes will occur – you can state with n Immersive video games which will allow baby
certainty that if it’s winter now, in six months time it will boomers to be at Woodstock, in the middle of wars or Next add-in the soft trends which
be summer. Similarly, if the economy is in a downtick at pivotal trials and political conventions. are apparent and note what you
at present, you can forecast that it will reverse n Unretirement homes where groups of seniors can get can change or influence here
direction and start expanding again in the future. together and develop second-life careers in music,
When that happens might be hard to judge accurately electronics, gardening, energy self-sufficiency, etc.
but you know it will happen.
n Late-life financial planning services which focus on
n All the linear changes which happened in the past will investing in stocks that pay dividends.
project into the future as well – the world’s population
will keep growing, electronic devices will converge n Green funeral homes and boomer cemeteries for
and computers of the future will be faster than those those who are more environmentally conscious.
Your Final Plan
of today. There are linear changes which can be n Smaller and more eco-friendly cars which can run on
safely projected into the future. multiple fuels or use hybrid technology. (You could Specify: “What can I be certain
n There are various hard trends in your industry and in get Toyota to build your cars right in the United States about?” and then list all the factual
society as a whole which will continue to unfold – to their specs and then put your badge on it.) evidence which leads to this
measurable and verifiable trends which are entirely “Strategy based on certainty has low risk and high
predictable. A hard trend is something which reward. Base your strategies on certainty, on the known
unquestionably will happen in the future. It is not future visible in hard trends and the soft trends that you Answer: “How can I innovate to
dependant on other things falling into place – it is a can manipulate, knowing which is which and acting take advantage of what I know for
!
direct extrapolation of facts. For example, you can be accordingly, and you will build something that will not certain about the future?”
certain Internet bandwidth will be more accessible only survive but even thrive in the years ahead.”
and cheaper in the future because that’s what – Daniel Burrus
everyone is working towards. That’s the way this item
Get others involved in questioning
has always trended in the past and it’s certain to “Hope is not a strategy; certainty is.”
your assumptions and in identifying
continue along that path in the future. – Daniel Burrus
what will happen in the future.
Flash Foresight– Page 3
4. Product intelligence – more and more products are There are also three digital accelerators which are
becoming smart. They can warn when problems are increasing the pace of technological transformation all
Seven triggers of flash foresights ! imminent thanks to sensors which are built in. the time:
5. Networking – will continue to expand in scope, 1. Processing power – continues to double every
2 Project speed and accessibility. All information will eighteen months as forecast by Intel cofounder
ultimately migrate to the network because it’s there Gordon Moore in 1965. After more than thirty years
Rather than being proactive or reactive, you should value can be added. of growth, the year-by-year increase being achieved
always try and be preactive. This means anticipating the 6. Interactivity – today’s consumers like to be active in raw computer processing power today is
future before it happens and making changes from the participants rather than mere observers. Eventually, absolutely staggering.
inside out before external forces intervene. we will just naturally expect to interact with anything 2. Bandwidth – which can be defined as “the amount of
and everything. information which can travel over any given channel”
7. Globalization – every economy of the world will is increasing at an even faster rate than computer
At one time, being agile was enough to stay competitive
become tightly interlinked with each other. Soon, it processing power. It is today giving us the ability to
in rapidly changing markets. Today, it’s far better to
won’t matter where you’re located. The only do things which were barely conceivable just a few
anticipate changes and take the requisite actions well in
question will be: “How much value can you add?” short years ago.
advance of those changes happening. In other words,
be preactive. Every industry will become a global industry 3. Storage – is also escalating dramatically. Storage
because it can and must to retain relevance. capacity doubles about every twelve months
You can know for certain technology will advance in the
8. Convergence – industries are converging, products meaning it is now so cheap it’s practically free. Hard
years ahead. This is an undeniable hard trend. To get
are converging and all kinds of interesting hybrids drives which were first measured in kilobytes are
ahead of the curve, you’ve got to look at where your
are emerging. Today, the telecommunications, now described in gigabytes and terabytes and soon
industry’s leaders will be five years from now and start
consumer electronics and information technology they will be in petabytes (1,000 terabytes) and
emulating those best practices right now. If you don’t do
industries have converged. Borders have become exabytes (1,000 petabytes).
this, you’ll get locked into a battle of follow-the-leader
you cannot win. so blurred you cannot tell where one finishes and the These digital accelerators will amplify the rate of change
other starts. in every industry that can be named. Nothing will be left
How can you figure out where your industry will be five
Note all eight of these pathways are also interacting with untouched. To use this knowledge to best effect, start
years from now? It’s actually not that hard to project.
each other more today than at any time in the past. Many figuring out what an ideal future looks like and the steps
Technological advancement always flows through eight
products have elements of all eight of these pathways you can be taking now to shape that future. Above all,
specific pathways and gets amplified by three digital
combined or converged in them already. seek to become more preactive and less reactive.
accelerators.
The eight pathways of technological advancement are:
1. Dematerialization – every product which gets made
in the future will be smaller and smarter than present
generation equivalents. They will use less materials Three digital accelerators
to make and therefore will be cheaper.
2. Virtualization – the things we currently do in the 1 Processing 2 Bandwidth 3 Storage
physical world will be recreated in a digital Power
representational world where it will be easier to try
new ideas. In just the same way as bloggers have
virtualized the world of news, everything will go down Dematerialization 1 5 Networking
Eight
this same road.
Virtualization 2 Pathways 6 Interactivity
3. Mobility – more and more devices and services will of
become mobile rather than location-bound. People Mobility 3 Technological 7 Globalization
are uploading their data to the cloud so they can Advancement
access it anywhere anytime. Wireless devices will Product intelligence 4 8 Convergence
become almost universal.
Flash Foresight– Page 4
So assuming you’re not trying to put in place a national n Suspend making any knee-jerk assessments –
Seven triggers of flash foresights ! phone network for an emerging nation in the next week because these can obscure creative thinking.
or two, how do you skip the more down-to-earth Suspending making a snap judgment is difficult but
problems companies more frequently face? The basic doing so offers great rewards. You will often see new
4 Skip your biggest problem steps are to follow this line of reasoning: opportunities where others only see problems.
n Look carefully at your legacy systems – and figure out
The key to unraveling and then solving your biggest Peel the onion – break big problems for yourself whether or not it would be better to let go
problem is often to realize you’re trying to solve a 1 of your old stuff right away and move into the future
down into components you can address
previous generation problem. Skip that and get to work immediately. A good illustration of this was the One
uncovering and solving the real customer problem once Don’t get bogged down – focus on one Laptop per Child Project which aimed to give $100
the transformation has happened. 2 laptops to underprivileged children in poorer nations.
issue at a time and keep moving forward
This was a laudable idea but a better approach is to
Look to technology for help – see what achieve the same results using smart cell phones.
Sometimes it’s all too easy to get so immersed in solving 3 The cost of manufacturing a cellphone is about $1
can be done to automate a solution
a problem that you fail to take into account the bigger and is going steadily lower. A tiny chip built into a cell
picture issues. You might get busy solving a problem phone can project a digital screen onto a wall with a
Suspend knee-jerk assessments –
which is about to get superceded anyway – the 4 virtual keyboard. The children can find a blank wall,
evaluate each idea on its merits
equivalent of figuring out how to mine more coal when push a button on their phone and do everything they
everyone is in the process of changing to oil-driven would ordinarily do with a laptop at a small fraction of
machinery. So how do you avoid that? It’s easy – skip Look carefully at legacy systems – and the cost – plus they can also talk to each other as well.
your biggest, most immediate problem. This frees your 5
see whether they can be skipped entirely This is a great example of the impact of at least four of
mind to start working on developing solutions to what the the drivers of technological transformation:
customer’s real problem is. Integrate an abundance mindset into dematerialization, mobility, networking and
6
To illustrate how this works, many evolving nations have your strategy – rather than scarcity convergence.
an extremely poor telephone network infrastructure. If n Integrate an abundance mindset into your strategy –
you were to focus all your energies and capital on because the three digital accelerators are creating a
building a new infrastructure in those nations, it would be n Peel the onion – think of your most immediate and
obvious problem as being just the top layer. Get to the world where abundance creates value. The industrial
like sinking resources into a bottomless pit. Instead, economy was built around the concept of scarcity
savvy companies are skipping the copper cable heart of the matter by asking “Why is that a problem?”
over and over. Keep asking that until you get to the giving goods their value. In the digital economy,
generation and have gone straight to building a robust knowledge increases the more you share it. If
cell phone network in those countries. By skipping the epicenter of the problem which is what you really want
to solve. Amazon were to give away its Kindle e-book reader
problem of “How do we lay more copper cables?”, these for free, it would create a huge base of customers
innovative companies have moved on to the real n Don’t get bogged down – in analysis paralysis. who would then be motivated to buy a sizable volume
challenge: “How do we provide these people with Resolve to move forward and do different things. of e-books from Amazon. Companies from one end
wireless connectivity which lets them access the Your best ideas will come as you try and do different of the digital economy to the other are doing that by
Internet at the same time as they communicate with the things rather than sitting back in stunned inactivity. creating s broad base of free users of something first
outside world?” n Look to technology for help – because today there and then charging for the add-on services that their
This kind of thinking is why countries like Ecuador can are all kinds of potential solutions just waiting for you user base is interested in. Google does something
already offer all of its citizens wireless broadband to try. For example, do you need some good ideas for similar by giving away its search results for free and
access while the United States is still struggling to new products and services you could offer? You then charging advertisers who want to make an offer
provide consumers with something comparable. could use an online survey of your existing customers to people as they do searches. The scarcity mindset
Similarly, the Indian economy has boomed in recent and see what they suggest. Or search for other of previous eras is rapidly being superceded by
years because the company skipped the fiber optic technology solutions which will automate what you’re abundance based thinking. Figure out what you can
cable product generation and went straight to satellite having difficulty with. Things are changing rapidly in do to skip your current problem – which is probably
and wireless communications. These are great all industries and technology offers some amazing scarcity based anyway – and move forward with an
examples of skipping the biggest, most immediate possibilities you should consider. abundance approach.
problems altogether rather than solving them.
Flash Foresight– Page 6
Break everything See whether you Identify all the Ask: How can we
Seven triggers of flash foresights ! down into its can turn any of those things you now do collaborate with others
component parts steps on its head in-house by yourself in these areas?
5 Go opposite
In 2003, Procter & Gamble did this and asked: “What if In the digital age, the more people you can get working
A great way to trigger a flash foresight is to note where we could create a product which would let people wash together on your problems the better. This is the
everyone else is looking and head in the opposite their clothes in cold water rather than hot?” Tide complete opposite of the older paradigm where
direction. Coldwater came to the market in 2005. It cost the same companies tried to hoard their know-how in order to
as ordinary Tide but saved the consumer money on their maintain a sustainable competitive advantage. Today,
monthly home energy bill. It was a huge hit. The you can achieve far more by pooling your experience,
How do you pull this off? Some suggestions: company has calculated that if every U.S. household fine-tuning what does work and learning what to avoid
were to switch to cold-water washing, about 8 percent of on the strength of the experience of others. When you
Make a list of Look at each item the United States Kyoto target would be met. collaborate with others – even your competitors – you
everything your and ask: “What if I Green Energy Technologies are developing rooftop can grow a larger pie which everyone can then earn a
competitors do did the opposite?” wind generation systems which will generate about bigger share of.
$20,000 worth of electricity a year in areas which “The move from scarcity thinking to abundance thinking,
Amazon didn’t try and build a bigger and better average 13 or 14 mph in winds. These turbines are 25 from zero-sum competition to one-hundred-sum
megabookstore. It shrank the size of the bookstore to feet tall with 10 feet blades rather than the 225 feet collaboration, is not just a ‘nice’ or ‘moral’ idea. In the
nothing and enhanced the buying experience. As conventional windmill units. By installing these twenty-first century, it’s just plain good sense. Scarcity
competitors started trying to do the same thing, Amazon intelligent systems on rooftops, there is no energy says, ‘I’m going to keep all my ideas to myself and sell
was there to rent them its excess technology capacity. transmission infrastructure needed so the power more than anyone else.’ Abundance says, ‘By
Amazon in effect created an “unbookstore.” industry skips the problem of large capital investment in mentoring, coaching, and sharing all our best ideas,
Similarly, Starbucks took coffee from being an the grid. Computers automatically adjust the blade we’re going to create a powerful tide that raises all our
inexpensive meal accessory to a consumption angle to optimize operational efficiency. ships – and we’ll all sell more as a result.”
experience in and of itself. It put coffee at the center of – Daniel Burrus
the experience and has built a global empire around it. Look at anything Figure out what will
people say “that’s the happen when that way “The shift from an economy based on substance
Look for new way it’s always been” becomes obsolete (physical resources) to an economy based on
Summarize the
knowledge (immaterial resources) has triggered a polar
current way of thinking opportunities by going
the opposite way Everyone knows the Athabasca Oil Sands in Alberta, shift in the very nature of wealth and the anatomy of
in your industry
Canada contain about as much oil as Saudi Arabia but success. This is so because of the simple physics of it:
extracting it is very expensive. One approach is to use when you share a physical resource with someone else,
The Super Bowl is the most expensive advertising spot your own store depletes – but when you share
available in U.S. television advertising. Therefore, you’d deep steam injection to liquefy the oil in the ground so it
can be pumped but that generates CO2 emissions and knowledge, it increases. “
want to hire the best, most creative advertising agency – Daniel Burrus
to make your ad. Right? Doritos did the opposite. They consumes huge amounts of energy. In 1980, an
created a contest, Crash the Super Bowl, where engineering student suggested using a low-heat “’The way we’ve always done it’ is the biggest hurdle we
consumers could create their own Dorito’s commercial process instead. Thin holes are dug in a grid structure face going forward successfully into the future. The real
with the winner being run during the Super Bowl. It was a through which electricity is run heating the soil enough to barriers today are no longer technical or material – they
huge success. One of the ads they ended up using cost liquefy the petroleum and allow it to be pumped to the are attitudinal. We have habits that go back centuries,
$200 to make. Two years later, Frito-Lay repeated the surface. This approach is economical, environmentally even millennia, habits of protecting our own egos and
contest and offered a cash prize of $1 million. friendly and leaves no problematic after-effects. It’s petty fiefdoms, habits of fighting change and being
Consumers were so energized they’re still submitting estimated this new and somewhat contrarian approach proprietary about knowledge. In an economy based on
ideas for commercials years later. to extraction will yield around 280 billion barrels of oil in scarcity, that attitude was the rule of survival; in an
the future – some 30 percent more than Saudi Arabia’s abundant economy, it’s suicide.”
entire oil reserves. – Daniel Burrus
Flash Foresight– Page 7
Communication Trust
Seven triggers of flash foresights ! The simple and undeniable fact is the world economy is This is the third force which will play a major role in your
moving into a fundamentally different mode of operation future. In today’s networked world, if you break your
based on abundance rather than on scarcity. As a result, customer’s trust, everyone will find out. To build trust,
7 Direct your future your relationship to information can and must change. you have to operate openly and transparently and,
Value in the future will be created by mining, shaping above all, deliver on your promises. Trust is the glue that
Start to actively shape your future. Have a vision of the and then crafting raw data and information into its higher holds everything together in the digital economy where
future of your own life and your organization that is forms of wisdom and knowledge. you may never meet face-to-face with your customers.
bracing, invigorating and highly motivational. Don’t just Put trust front-and-center in your plans for the future.
let the future unfold – use flash foresights to create the Make only those changes which will enhance and build
kind of future you want and deserve. trust with your customers. For example, it’s no longer
acceptable to have lower prices for new customers.
Wisdom Your existing customers will find out about it and will feel
The majority of companies put zero time and effort into
V like they’re being ripped off. As you develop your
creating their “futureview” – their vision of where they
A futureview, make building trust a central component.
and their people are headed. That’s unfortunate Knowledge
because without a futureview, all you can do is react to L When you look to direct your future more actively, you’ll
external events. With a solid and well managed U Information note that even though our tools are changing, human
futureview, you can get to work making it come together. E nature is not. Certainly, we all have more powerful
Data communication and collaboration tools at our disposal
“When I want to take a break, I love to take my than ever before. We have to transform ourselves along
Harley-Davidson out on the local roads and open it up. with our tools and loosen our grip on scarcity-based
One thing that’s especially great about the Harley is that At one time, data and information were in such short rules and adopt the abundance mindset which will
there’s no reverse. That’s true for us, too: we can never supply people could provide value by giving people raw underpin the future.
truly regain the past, we can only go forward into the information. This was the business model for travel
future. The Harley’s rear wheel sits behind me, powered agents, stockbrokers, real estate agents and many
TomorrowLab The Future
by the engine. That’s exactly what the past does: it sits others in earlier times. Today, everyone has access to !
behind us, and we can use the momentum of the past to loads of data. To add value in the future, figure out how
drive us forward. But it’s the wheel in front that we use to you can be providing knowledge (information plus
If you really want to shape your future, set aside one
determine our direction. And anyone who’s ever ridden practical know-how) or wisdom (the capacity to distill
hour a week where you will work at generating some
a motorcycle knows this cardinal rule of the road: You guiding principles from knowledge.)
flash foresights of your own. Designate this as your
head for where you’re looking. If there’s a rock in the Build your future around developing more ways and “TomorrowLab” time where you disconnect from the
road and you look straight at it, you’ll run over it. Where means of delivering wisdom and knowledge to the challenges of the present and start exploring your visible
you look is where you go. Where are you looking?” people you communicate with. future. Use this time to think about:
– Daniel Burrus Collaboration • The hard trends and soft trends of your future
Build your futureview around the three key forces which Collaboration builds on genuine two-way • The effect of the eight pathways of advancement
are currently shaping your future: communication. When you collaborate with someone • The impact of the three digital accelerators
else, you’re not just accommodating them. You’re • How to apply the seven triggers of flash foresight
working hand-in-hand to come up with something which • The problems you’re going to strike in the future
1 Communication
is genuinely better than either of you could have put “This massive global transformation will happen – it is
The Future 2 Collaboration together using your own resources alone. happening. And it is transforming everything. It will bring
Make collaboration part and parcel of your planning for massive disruption for those who don’t see it coming –
3 Trust the future. Keep envisioning and creating ways you can and massive opportunities for those who do.”
get better at collaborating with others to add value. – Daniel Burrus