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    Forecasting Tahoe Salt

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    Saumyajit Dey
    This document contains quarterly demand data and the results of a linear regression model fitted to deseasonalised demand. It shows the original demand values, deseasonalised values, forecasts from the regression model, errors and error metrics. The regression was statistically significant with an R-squared value of 0.917, indicating the model fits the data well.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Forecasting Tahoe Salt

    Uploaded by

    Saumyajit Dey
    56 views4 pages
    This document contains quarterly demand data and the results of a linear regression model fitted to deseasonalised demand. It shows the original demand values, deseasonalised values, forecasts from the regression model, errors and error metrics. The regression was statistically significant with an R-squared value of 0.917, indicating the model fits the data well.

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    Forecasting for Tahoe salt

    Original Title

    Forecasting Tahoe salt

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    This document contains quarterly demand data and the results of a linear regression model fitted to deseasonalised demand. It shows the original demand values, deseasonalised values, forecasts from the regression model, errors and error metrics. The regression was statistically significant with an R-squared value of 0.917, indicating the model fits the data well.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    56 views4 pages

    Forecasting Tahoe Salt

    Uploaded by

    Saumyajit Dey
    This document contains quarterly demand data and the results of a linear regression model fitted to deseasonalised demand. It shows the original demand values, deseasonalised values, forecasts from the regression model, errors and error metrics. The regression was statistically significant with an R-squared value of 0.917, indicating the model fits the data well.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as xlsx, pdf, or txt
    of 4

    year quarter period(t) demand, Dt Deseasonalised Demand

    1 2 1 8000
    1 3 2 13000
    1 4 3 23000 19750
    2 1 4 34000 20625
    2 2 5 10000 21250
    2 3 6 18000 21750
    2 4 7 23000 22500
    3 1 8 38000 22125
    3 2 9 12000 22625
    3 3 10 13000 24125
    3 4 11 32000
    4 1 12 41000
    13
    14
    15
    p= 4

    Alpha 0.05
    beta 0.1
    gamma 0.1

    MSE 4436030
    MAD 1477.11
    MAPE 0.084461
    Deseasonalised demand (after regression) Seasonal factor(for initialisation) Seasonal factor
    Dt=L+Tt
    18962.7976190476 0.421878678490151 0.47168067193939
    19486.6071428571 0.667124856815578 0.68340443601506
    20010.4166666667 1.14940135346174 1.17070812550119
    20534.2261904762 1.65577215740271 1.66441981240485
    21058.0357142857 0.474878100487598 0.46692437307781
    21581.8452380952 0.83403433772323 0.68221697088404
    22105.6547619048 1.04045775833053 1.16945041909158
    22629.4642857143 1.6792266719274 1.6648625856587
    23153.2738095238 0.518285236840414 0.46805333118989
    23677.0833333333 0.549054113506379 0.6970480249757
    24200.8928571429 1.32226526471131 1.15665124797916
    24724.7023809524 1.65826060788444 1.66636141406695

    r=no of periods/p=12/4=3
    Level Lt Trend Forecast Ft Error Et Error ^2 Absolute Error At (Ft-Dt)/Dt
    18438.99 523.8095
    18862.69 513.7987 8944.3851228 944.3851 891863.3 944.385122803003 0.11804814035
    19358.78 512.0283 13241.977694 241.9777 58553.2 241.977693553352 0.01861366873
    19859.58 510.9054 23262.921315 262.9213 69127.62 262.921314712919 0.01143136151
    20373.34 511.1906 33905.044522 -94.95548 9016.543 94.9554784965658 0.00279280819
    20911.14 513.8517 9751.496804 -248.5032 61753.84 248.503196037871 0.0248503196
    21672.97 538.6496 14616.494433 -3383.506 11448110 3383.50556669672 0.18797253148
    22084.41 525.9282 25975.390831 2975.391 8852951 2975.3908308301 0.12936481873
    22621.06 527.0001 37643.104412 -356.8956 127374.5 356.895587637417 0.00939198915
    23272.56 539.4503 10834.524594 -1165.475 1358333 1165.47540578181 0.09712295048
    23553.91 513.6407 16598.113474 3598.113 12946421 3598.11347366984 0.27677795951
    24247.48 531.6333 27837.764768 -4162.235 17324202 4162.23523247374 0.13006985101
    24770.38 530.7603 41290.956128 290.9561 84655.47 290.956127655139 0.00709649092
    11842.283787
    18006.076436
    SUMMARY OUTPUT

    Regression Statistics
    Multiple R 0.9580652366
    R Square 0.9178889975
    Adjusted R0.9042038305
    Standard E414.50331245
    Observatio 8

    ANOVA
    df SS MS F Significance F
    Regression 1 11523810 11523810 67.0718152291592 0.00017860862
    Residual 6 1030878 171813
    Total 7 12554688

    CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%


    Intercept 18438.988095 440.8087 41.82991 1.24876164727E-08 17360.3680438 19517.61
    X Variable 523.80952381 63.95925 8.189738 0.000178608624713 367.306877774 680.3122
    Lower 95.0%
    Upper 95.0%
    17360.37 19517.61
    367.3069 680.3122

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