Chapter 9

Hypothesis Testing About Mean

Hypothesis:
A hypothesis is a statement about a population parameter. We perform a test of hypothesis only
when we are making a decision about a population parameter based on the value of a sample
statistic.

Types of Hypothesis

Null Hypothesis
A null hypothesis is a claim (or statement) about a population parameter that is assumed to be
true until it is declared false. A null hypothesis is a hypothesis that is to be tested.

Alternative Hypothesis
An alternative hypothesis is a claim about a population parameter that will be true if the null
hypothesis is false.

Rejection and Nonrejection/Acceptance Regions

Not enough evidence to Enough evidence to declare

declare the null hypothesis is the null hypothesis
not rejected in this region is rejected in this region
0 Level of
evidence

Nonrejection region Rejection region

Critical point

Two Types of Errors

1. Types I error
2. Type II error

Type I Error
A Type I error occurs when a true null hypothesis is rejected. The value of α represents the
probability of committing this type of error; that is,
α =¿ P(H0 is rejected / H0 is true)
The value of α represents the significance level of the test.

Type II Error
A Type II error occurs when a false null hypothesis is not rejected. The value of βrepresents the
probability of committing a Type II error; that is,

1
 β=¿ P(H0 is not rejected/ H0 is false)

The value of 1−β is called the power of the test. It represents the probability of not making a
Type II error.

Table 9.2 Four Possible Outcomes for a Test of Hypothesis

Actual Situation
H0 is true H0 is False
Decision Do not reject H0 Correct decision Type II error or β
error
Reject H0 Type I or α error Correct decision

9.1.4 Tails of a Test

Tails of the Test A two-tailed test has rejection regions in both tails, a left-tailed test has the
rejection region in the left tail, and a right-tailed test has the rejection region in the right tail of
the distribution curve.

A Two-Tailed Test
Whether a test is two-tailed or one-tailed is determined by the sign in the alternative hypothesis.
If the alternative hypothesis has a not equal to (≠) sign, as in this example, it is a
two-tailed test. As shown in Figure 9.2, a two-tailed test has two rejection regions, one in each
tail of the distribution curve.

Figure 9.2: A two tailed test

The Shaded area The Shaded area

is α /2 is α /2

μ
Rejection Nonrejection region Rejection

region region
C1 C2

These two values are

called the critical values

2
A Left-Tailed Test
When the alternative hypothesis has a less than (<) sign, as in this case, the test is always left-
tailed. In a left-tailed test, the rejection region is in the left tail of the distribution curve, as shown
in Figure 9.3, and the area of this rejection region is equal to α (the significance level). We can
observe from this figure that there is only one critical value in a left-tailed test.

Figure 9.3: A left- tailed test

The Shaded area

is α

μ
Rejection Nonrejection region
region
C

Critical value

A Right-Tailed Test
When the alternative hypothesis has a greater than (>) sign, the test is always right-tailed. As
shown in Figure 9.4, in a right-tailed test, the rejection region is in the right tail of the
distribution curve. The area of this rejection region is equal to α, the significance level. Like a
left-tailed test, a right-tailed test has only one critical value.

Figure 9.4: A right-tailed test

The Shaded area

is α

μ
Nonrejection region Rejection
region
C

Critical value

3
Hypothesis Tests About Population Mean μ: σ known

Here, there are three possible cases, as follows.

Case I. If the following three conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is known
2. The sample size is small (i.e.,n<30 ¿
3. The population from which the sample is selected is normally distributed,
then we use the normal distribution to perform a test of hypothesis about μ .

Case II. If the following two conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is known
2. The sample size is large (i.e., ,n ≥ 30 ¿
then, again, we use the normal distribution to perform a test of hypothesis about μ .

Case III. If the following three conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is known
2. The sample size is small (i.e., n<30 ¿
3. The population from which the sample is selected is not normally distributed (or its
distribution is unknown), then we use a nonparametric method to to perform a test of hypothesis
about μ.

The following chart summarizes the above three cases.

σ Is Known

Case I Case II Case III

1. n < 30 n ≥ 30 1. n < 30
2. Population is normal 2. Population is not normal

Use the normal distribution Use a nonparametric method

to test a hypothesis about μ to test a hypothesis about μ

4
Approaches to Test Hypothesis about μ

Two Approaches to test hypotheses about μ under Cases I and II

1. the p-value approach and
2. the critical-value approach,.

 We will use the normal distribution to perform such tests.

 Note that the two approaches—the p-value approach and the critical-value approach—are
not mutually exclusive. We do not need to use one or the other. We can use both at the
same time.

p-Value
In this procedure, we find a probability value such that a given null hypothesis is rejected for any
α (significance level) greater than this value and it is not rejected for any α less than this value.
The probability-value approach, more commonly called the p-value approach, gives such a
value. In this approach, we calculate the p-value for the test, which is defined as the smallest
level of significance at which the given null hypothesis is rejected. Using this p-value, we state
the decision. If we have a predetermined value of α, then we compare the value of p with α and
make a decision.

Using the p-value approach, we reject the null hypothesis if

p-value < α or a α > p-value
and we do not reject the null hypothesis if
p-value ≥ α or α ≤p-value

For a one-tailed test, the p-value is given by the area in the tail of the sampling distribution curve
beyond the observed value of the sample statistic. Figure 9.5 shows the p-value for a right-tailed
test about μ. For a left-tailed test, the p-value will be the area in the lower tail of the sampling
distribution curve to the left of the observed value of x́.

Figure 9.5. The p-value for a right-tailed test.

p-value

x́ x́

Value of x́ observed
from the sample

5
For a two-tailed test, the p-value is twice the area in the tail of the sampling distribution curve
beyond the observed value of the sample statistic. Figure 9.6 shows the p-value for a two-tailed
test. Each of the areas in the two tails gives one-half the p-value.

Figure 9.5. The p-value for a two-tailed test.

The sum of these two

areas gives the p-value

x́ x́

Value of x́ observed
from the sample

To find the area under the normal distribution curve beyond the sample mean x́ we first find the
z value for x́ using the following formula.

Calculating the z Value for x́

When using the normal distribution, the value of z for a test of hypothesis about x́ is computed as
follows:

x́−μ σ
z= where σ x́ =
σ x́ √n
The value of z calculated for x́ using this formula is also called the observed value of z.

Then we find the area under the tail of the normal distribution curve beyond this value of z. This
area gives the p-value or one-half the p-value, depending on whether it is a one-tailed test or a
two-tailed test.

A test of hypothesis procedure that uses the p-value approach involves the following four steps.

Steps to Perform a Test of Hypothesis Using the p-Value Approach

1. State the null and alternative hypothesis.

2. Select the distribution to use.
3. Calculate the p-value.
4. Make a decision.

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EXAMPLE 9–1
At Canon Food Corporation, it used to take an average of 90 minutes for new workers to learn a
food processing job. Recently the company installed a new food processing machine. The
supervisor at the company wants to find if the mean time taken by new workers to learn the food
processing procedure on this new machine is different from 90 minutes. A sample of 20 workers
showed that it took, on average, 85 minutes for them to learn the food processing procedure on
the new machine. It is known that the learning times for all new workers are normally distributed
with a population standard deviation of 7 minutes. Find the p-value for the test that the mean
learning time for the food processing procedure on the new machine is different from 90
minutes. What will your conclusion be if α =.01?

Solution Let μ be the mean time (in minutes) taken to learn the food processing procedure on the
new machine by all workers, and let x́ be the corresponding sample mean. From the given
information,

n=20 , x́ =85 minutes , σ=7 minutes ,∧α=.01

To calculate the p-value and perform the test, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 :=90 minutes
H 1 : ≠ 90 minutes

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

Here, the population standard deviation σ is known, the sample size is small (n < 30), but the
population distribution is normal. Hence, the sampling distribution of x́ is normal with its mean
σ
equal to μand the standard deviation equal to σ x́ = . Consequently, we will use the normal
√n
distribution to find the p-value and make the test.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is two-tailed. The p-value is
equal to twice the area in the tail of the sampling distribution curve of x́to the left of x́as
shown in Figure 9.7. To find this area, we first find the z value for x́=85as follows:

σ 7
σ x́ = =
√ n √ 20
=1.57 minutes

x́−μ 85−90
z= = =−3.19
σ x́ 1.57

7
Figure 9.7 The p-value for a two-tailed test.

The sum of these two

areas gives the p-value

.0007

x́ =85 μ=90 x́

-3.19 0

z-value for x́=85

The area to the left of x́=85is equal to the area under the standard normal curve to the left of
z=−3.19. From the normal distribution table, the area to the left of z=−3.19 is .0007.

Consequently, the p-value is

p−value=2 ( .0007 ) =.0014

Step 4. Make a decision.

Thus, based on the p-value of .0014, we can state that for any α (significance level) greater than .
0014 we will reject the null hypothesis stated in Step 1, and for any α less than or equal
to .0014, we will not reject the null hypothesis.

Because α =.01 is greater than the p-value of .0014, we reject the null hypothesis at this
significance level. Therefore, we conclude that the mean time for learning the food processing
procedure on the new machine is different from 90 minutes.

EXAMPLE 9–2
The management of Priority Health Club claims that its members lose an average of 10 pounds
or more within the first month after joining the club. A consumer agency that wanted to check
this claim took a random sample of 36 members of this health club and found that they lost an
average of 9.2 pounds within the first month of membership. The population standard deviation
is known to be 2.4 pounds. Find the p-value for this test. What will your decision be if α =¿ .01?
What if α =¿ .05?

8
Solution Let μ be the mean weight lost during the first month of membership by all members of
this health club, and let x́ be the corresponding mean for the sample. From the given information,

n=36 , x́=9.2 pounds ,∧σ =2.4 pounds

The claim of the club is that its members lose, on average, 10 pounds or more within the first
month of membership. To perform the test using the p-value approach, we apply the following
four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 :μ ≥ 10
H 1 : μ< 10

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

Here, the population standard deviation σ is known, and the sample size is large (n > 30).
Hence, the sampling distribution of x́is normal with its mean equal to μ and the standard
σ
deviation equal to σ x́ = .Consequently, we will use the normal distribution to find the p-value
√n
and perform the test.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

The < sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is left-tailed. The p-value is given
by the area to the left of x́=9.2under the sampling distribution curve of x́=9.2 as shown in Figure
9.8. To find this area, we first find the z value for as follows:

σ 2.4
σ x́ = = =0.40
√ n √ 36

x́−μ 9.2−10
z= = =−2.00
σ x́ .40

9
Figure 9.7 The p-value for a two-tailed test.

.00228

x́ =9.2 μ=10 x́

-2.00 0

z-value for x́=9.2

The area to the left of x́=9.2is equal to the area under the standard normal curve to the left of
z=−2.00. From the normal distribution table, the area to the left of z=−2.00is .0228.

Consequently, the p-value is

p−value=.0228

Step 4. Make a decision.

Thus, based on the p-value of .0228, we can state that for any α (significance level) greater than .
0228 we will reject the null hypothesis stated in Step 1, and for any α less than or equal
to .0228, we will not reject the null hypothesis.

Because α =.01 is less than the p-value of .0228, we do not reject the null hypothesis at this
significance level. Therefore, we conclude that the mean weight lost within the first month of
membership by the members of this club is 10 pounds or more.

Now, because α =¿.05 is greater than the p-value of .0228, we reject the null hypothesis at this
significance level. Therefore, we conclude that the mean weight lost within the first month
of membership by the members of this club is less than 10 pounds.

2. The Critical-Value Approach

This is also called the traditional or classical approach. In this procedure, we have a
predetermined value of the significance level α. The value of α gives the total area of the
rejection region(s). First we find the critical value(s) of z from the normal distribution table for
the given significance level. Then we find the value of the test statistic z for the observed value
of the sample statistic Finally we compare these two values and make a decision. Remember, if

10
the test is one-tailed, there is only one critical value of z, and it is obtained by using the value of
which gives the area in the left or right tail of the normal distribution curve depending on
whether the test is left-tailed or right-tailed, respectively. However, if the test is two-tailed, there
are two critical values of z and they are obtained by using area in each tail of the normal
distribution curve. The value of the test statistic is obtained as follows:

Test Statistic In tests of hypotheses about μ using the normal distribution, the random variable

x́−μ σ
z= where σ x́ =
σ x́ √n
is called the test statistics. The test statistic can be defined as a rule or criterion that is used to
make the decision on whether or not to reject the null hypothesis.

A test of hypothesis procedure that uses the critical-value approach involves the following five
steps.
Steps to Perform a Test of Hypothesis with the Critical-Value Approach

1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

2. Select the distribution to use.
3. Determine the rejection and nonrejection regions.
4. Calculate the value of the test statistic.
5. Make a decision.

EXAMPLE 9–3
The TIV Telephone Company provides long-distance telephone service in an area. According to
the company’s records, the average length of all long-distance calls placed through this company
in 2009 was 12.44 minutes. The company’s management wanted to check if the mean length of
the current long-distance calls is different from 12.44 minutes. A sample of 150 such calls placed
through this company produced a mean length of 13.71 minutes. The standard deviation of all
such calls is 2.65 minutes. Using the 2% significance level, can you conclude that the mean
length of all current long-distance calls is different from 12.44 minutes?

Solution Let μ be the mean length of all current long-distance calls placed through this
company, and let x́ be the corresponding mean for the sample. From the given information,

n=150 , x́=13.71minutes ,∧σ=2.65 minutes

To perform the test using the critical value approach, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 :μ=12.44
H 1 : μ ≠ 12.44

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Step 2. Select the distribution to use.
Here, the population standard deviation σ is known, and the sample size is large (n > 30).
Hence, the sampling distribution of x́is normal with its mean equal to μ and the standard
σ
deviation equal to σ x́ = .Consequently, we will use the normal distribution to perform the test.
√n
Step 3. Determine the rejection and nonrejection regions.
The significance level is .02. The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is
two-tailed with two rejection regions, one in each tail of the normal distribution curve of x́.
Because the total area of both rejection regions is .02 (the significance level), the area of the
rejection region in each tail is .01; that is,

α 02
Area in each tail = =. =.01
2 2
These areas are shown in Figure 9.9. Two critical points in this figure separate the two rejection
regions from the nonrejection region. Next, we find the z values for the two critical points using
the area of the rejection region. To find the z values for these critical points, we look for .0100
and .9900 areas in the normal distribution table. From Table IV, the z values of the two critical
points, are approximately -2.33 and 2.33.

α α
=.01 =.01
2 2

x́ =9.2 μ=12.44 x́
Reject H0 Do not reject H0 Reject H0

-2.33 0 2.33

Two critical value of z

Figure 9.9
Step 4. Calculate the value of the test statistic.
When using the normal distribution, the value of the test statistic z for x́for a test of hypothesis
about μ is computed as follows:
σ 2.65
σ x́ = = =.2164
√ n √150

12
 x́−μ 13.71−12.44
z= = =5.87
σ x́ .2164

Step 4. Make a decision.

This value of z = 5.87 is greater than the critical value of z = 2.33, and it falls in the rejection
region in the right tail in Figure 9.9. Hence, we reject H0 and conclude that based on the sample
information, it appears that the mean length of all such calls is not equal to 12.44 minutes.

EXAMPLE 9–4
The mayor of a large city claims that the average net worth of families living in this city is at
least $300,000. A random sample of 25 families selected from this city produced a mean net
worth of $288,000. Assume that the net worths of all families in this city have a normal
distribution with the population standard deviation of $80,000. Using the 2.5% significance
level, can you conclude that the mayor’s claim is false?

Solution Let μ be the mean net worth of families living in this city, and let x́ be the corresponding mean
for the sample. From the given information,

n=25 , x́ =$ 288,000 ,∧σ =$ 80,000.

The significance level is α =.025

To perform the test using the critical value approach, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 :μ ≥ $ 300,000
H 1 : μ< $ 300,000

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

Here, the population standard deviation σ is known, and the sample size is small (n < 30), but the
population distribution is normal. Hence, the sampling distribution of x́is normal with its mean
σ
equal to μ and the standard deviation equal to σ x́ = .Consequently, we will use the normal
√n
distribution to perform the test.

Step 3. Determine the rejection and nonrejection regions.

The significance level is .025. The ¿ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is
left-tailed with the rejection region in the left tail of the normal distribution curve of x́. The
critical value of z, obtained from the normal table for .0250 area in the left tail, is -1.96, as shown
in Figure 9.10.

13
 α =.025

x́ =$288,000 μ=$ 300,000 x́

Reject H0 Do not reject H0

-1.96 0

Critical value of z

Figure 9.10

Step 4. Calculate the value of the test statistic.

When using the normal distribution, the value of the test statistic z for x́for a test of hypothesis
about μ is computed as follows:
σ 80,000
σ x́ = = =$ 16,000
√ n √ 25

x́−μ 288,000−300,000
z= = =−.75
σ x́ 16,000

Step 4. Make a decision.

This value of z = -.75 is greater than the critical value of z = -1.96, and it falls in the nonrejection
region.. Hence, we fail to reject H0 and conclude that based on the sample information, it appears
that the mean net worth of families in this city is not less than $300,000.

Hypothesis Tests About Population Mean μ: σ Not known

Here, there are three possible cases, as follows.

Case I. If the following three conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is not known

14
2. The sample size is small (i.e.,n<30 ¿
3. The population from which the sample is selected is normally distributed,
then we use the t distribution to perform a test of hypothesis about μ .

Case II. If the following two conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is not known
2. The sample size is large (i.e., ,n ≥ 30 ¿
then, again, we use the t distribution to perform a test of hypothesis about μ .

Case III. If the following three conditions are fulfilled:

1. The population standard deviation σ is not known
2. The sample size is small (i.e., n<30 ¿
3. The population from which the sample is selected is not normally distributed (or its
distribution is unknown), then we use a nonparametric method to to perform a test of hypothesis
about μ.

The following chart summarizes the above three cases.

σ Is not Known

Case I Case II Case III

1. n < 30 n ≥ 30 1. n < 30
2. Population is normal 2. Population is not normal

Use the t distribution Use a nonparametric method

to test a hypothesis about μ to test a hypothesis about μ

Test Statistic
The value of the test statistic t for the sample mean x́ is computed as

x́−μ s
t= where s x́ =
s x́ √n
The value of t calculated for x́ by using this formula is also called the observed value of t.

Example 9-5

15
A psychologist claims that the mean age at which children start walking is 12.5 months. Carol
wanted to check if this claim is true. She took a random sample of 18 children and found that the
mean age at which these children started walking was 12.9 months with a standard deviation of .
80 month. It is known that the ages at which all children start walking are approximately
normally distributed. Find the p-value for the test that the mean age at which all children start
walking is different from 12.5 months. What will your conclusion be if the significance level is
1%?

Solution Let μ be the mean be the mean age at which all children start walking, and let x́ be the
corresponding sample mean. From the given information,

n=18 , x́ =12.9months ,∧s=.80 month.

To calculate the p-value and perform the test, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 : μ=12.5
H 1 : μ ≠12.5

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

Here, the population standard deviation σ is not known, the sample size is small (n < 30), but the
population distribution is normal. Hence, the sampling distribution of x́ is t with n – 1 d.f.
Consequently, we will use the t distribution to find the p-value and make the test.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is two-tailed. The p-value is
equal to twice the area in the tail of the sampling distribution curve of x́to the left of x́. To find
this area, we first find the t value for x́=12.as follows:

s .80
s x́ = = =.1885
√ n √ 18

x́−μ 12.9−12.5
t= = =2.121
s x́ .1885

and df=n-1= 18-1 =17

16
Figure 9.7 The p-value for a two-tailed test.

The sum of these two

areas gives the p-value

-2.121 0 2.121 t

Now we can find the range for the p-value. To do so, we go to Table V of Appendix C (the t
distribution table) and find the row of df=17. In this row, we find the two values of t that cover
t=2.121. From Table V, for df = 17, these two values of t are 2.110 and 2.567. The test statistic t
= 2.121 falls between these two values. Now look in the top row of this table to find the areas in
the tail of the t distribution curve that correspond to 2.110 and 2.567. These two areas are .025
and .01, respectively. In other words, the area in the upper tail of the t distribution curve for df
=17 and is .025, and the area in the upper tail of the t distribution curve for df = 17 and t = 2.567
is .01. Because it is a two-tailed test, the p-value for t= 2.121 is between 29.025) = .05 and 2(.01)
= .02, which can be written as
.02 < p-value < .05

Step 4. Make a decision.

Thus, we can state that for any greater than .05 (the upper limit of the p-value range), we will
reject the null hypothesis. For any αless than .02 (the lower limit of the p-value range), we will
not reject the null hypothesis. However, if α is between .02 and .05, we cannot make a decision.
Note that if we use technology, then the p-value we will obtain for this example is .049, and we
can make a decision for any value of α . For our example, which is less than the lower limit of
the p-value range of .02. As a result, we fail to reject H 0 and conclude that the mean age at
which all children start walking is not different from 12.5 months. As a result, we can state that
the difference between the hypothesized population mean and the sample mean is so small that it
may have occurred because of sampling error.

17
Example 9-7
A psychologist claims that the mean age at which children start walking is 12.5 months. Carol
wanted to check if this claim is true. She took a random sample of 18 children and found that the
mean age at which these children started walking was 12.9 months with a standard deviation of .
80 month. It is known that the ages at which all children start walking are approximately
normally distributed. Using the 1% significance level, can you conclude that the mean age at
which all children start walking is different from 12.5 months? Assume that the ages at which all
children start walking have an approximately normal distribution.

Solution Let μ be the mean be the mean age at which all children start walking, and let x́ be the
corresponding sample mean. From the given information,

n=18 , x́ =12.9months , s=.80 month∧α=.01 .

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

H 0 : μ=12.5
H 1 : μ ≠12.5

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

Here, the population standard deviation σ is not known, the sample size is small (n < 30), but the
population distribution is normal. Hence, the sampling distribution of x́ is t with n – 1 d.f.
Consequently, we will use the t distribution to find the p-value and make the test.

Step 3. Determining the rejection and nonrejection regions.

The significance level is .01. The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is
two-tailed and the rejection region is lies in both tails. The area of the rejection region in each
tail of t distribution curve is

α 01
Area in each tail = =. =.005
2 2
df = n – 1=18-1=17

From the t distribution table, the critical values of t for 17 degrees of freedom and .005 area in
each tail of the t distribution curve are -2.898 and 2.898.

Step 4. Calculate the value of the test statistic.

We calculate the value of the test statistic t for x́ as follows:

s .80
s x́ = = =.1885
√ n √ 18

x́−μ 12.9−12.5
t= = =2.121
s x́ .1885

18
Step 4. Make a decision.
The value of the test statistic t = 2.121 falls between the two critical points, -2.898 and 2.898,
which is the nonrejection region. Consequently, we fail to reject H0. As a result, we can state that
the difference between the hypothesized population mean and the sample mean is so small that it
may have occurred because of sampling error. The mean age at which children start walking is
not different from 12.5 months.

9.4 Hypothesis tests About Population Proportion: Large Sample

Test Statistic
The value of the test statistic z for the sample proportion,^p, is computed as

^p − p pq
z=
√
σ ^p where σ ^p= n

The value of p that is used in this formula is the one from the null hypothesis. The value of q is
equal to 1− p .
The value of z calculated for ^p using the above formula is also called the observed value of z.

The sample size is considered to be large when np and nq are both greater than 5.

1. The p-Value Approach

EXAMPLE 9–9
According to a Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company Driving While Distracted Survey
conducted in 2008, 81% of the drivers interviewed said that they have talked on their cell phones
while driving (The New York Times, July 19, 2009). The survey included drivers aged 16 to 61
years selected from 48 states. Assume that this result holds true for the 2008 population of all
such drivers in the United States. In a recent random sample of 1600 drivers aged 16 to 61 years
selected from the United States, 83% said that they have talked on their cell phones while
driving. Find the p-value to test the hypothesis that the current percentage of such drivers who
have talked on their cell phones while driving is different from 81%. What is your conclusion if
the significance level is 5%?

Solution
Let p be the current proportion of all U.S. drivers aged 16 to 61 years who have talked on their
cell phones while driving, and let be the corresponding sample proportion. Then, from the given
information,

n = 1600, ^p = .83, and α = .05

In 2008, 81% of U.S. drivers aged 16 to 61 years said that they had talked on their cell phones
while driving. Hence,

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 p = .81 and q=1− p=1−.81=.19

To calculate the p-value and to make a decision, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

The null and alternative hypotheses are as follows:

H 0 : p=.81
H 1 : p ≠ .81

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

To check whether the sample is large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np=1600 ( .81 )=1296 and nq=1600 ( .19 )=304

Since np and nq are both greater than 5, we can conclude that the sample size is large.
Consequently, we will use the normal distribution to find the p-value for this test.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

The ≠ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is two-tailed. The p-value is equal
to twice the area in the tail of the normal distribution curve to the right of z for ^p=.83 . To find
this p-value, first we find the test statistic z for ^p=.83 as follows:

pq ( .81 ) (.19)
σ ^p=
√ √
n
=
^p − p .83−.81
1600
=.0098

z= = =2.04
σ ^p .0098

Now we find the area to the right of z =2.04 from the normal distribution table. This area is
1-.9793 = .0207. Consequently, the p-value is
p-value = 2(.0207) = .0414

Step 4. Make a decision.

Thus, we can state that for anyα greater than .0414 we will reject the null hypothesis, and for any
α less than or equal to .0414 we will not reject the null hypothesis. For our example, α =¿.05,
which is greater than the p-value of .0414. As a result, we reject H0 and conclude that the current
percentage of all U.S. drivers aged 16 to 61 years who have talked on their cell phones while
driving is different from .81. Consequently, we can state that the difference between the
hypothesized population proportion of .81 and the sample proportion of .83 is too large to be
attributed to sampling error alone when α =¿ .05.

EXAMPLE 9–10
When working properly, a machine that is used to make chips for calculators does not produce
more than 4% defective chips. Whenever the machine produces more than 4% defective chips, it

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needs an adjustment. To check if the machine is working properly, the quality control department
at the company often takes samples of chips and inspects them to determine if they are good or
defective. One such random sample of 200 chips taken recently from the production line
contained 12 defective chips. Find the p-value to test the hypothesis whether or not the machine
needs an adjustment. What would your conclusion be if the significance level is 2.5%?

Solution
Let p be the proportion of defective chips in all chips produced by this machine, and let be the
corresponding sample proportion. Then, from the given information,

n = 200, pˆ = 12/200=.06, and α = .025

When the machine is working properly, it does not produce more than 4% defective chips.
Hence, assuming that the machine is working properly, we obtain

p = .04 and q=1− p=1−.04=.96

To calculate the p-value and to make a decision, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

The null and alternative hypotheses are as follows:

H 0 : p ≤ .81
H 1 : p>.81

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

To check whether the sample is large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np=200 ( .04 ) =8 and nq=200 ( .96 )=192

Since np and nq are both greater than 5, we can conclude that the sample size is large.
Consequently, we will use the normal distribution to find the p-value for this test.

Step 3. Calculate the p-value.

The ¿ sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is right-tailed. The p-value is given
by the area in upper tail of the normal distribution curve to the right of z for ^p=.06 . To find this
p-value, first we find the test statistic z for ^p=.06 as follows:

pq ( .04 ) (.96)
σ ^p=
√ √
n
=
^p − p .06−.04
200
=.01386

z= = =1.44
σ ^p .01386

Now we find the area to the right of z =2.04 from the normal distribution table. This area is
1-.9251 = .0749. Consequently, the p-value is

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 p-value = .0749

Step 4. Make a decision.

Thus, we can state that for anyα greater than .0749 we will reject the null hypothesis, and for any
α less than or equal to .0749 we will not reject the null hypothesis. For our example, α =¿.05,
which is greater than the p-value of .0414. As a result, we fail to reject H0 and conclude that the
machine does not need an adjustment.

2. The Critical-Value Approach

EXAMPLE 9–12
Direct Mailing Company sells computers and computer parts by mail. The company claims that
at least 90% of all orders are mailed within 72 hours after they are received. The quality control
department at the company often takes samples to check if this claim is valid. A recently taken
sample of 150 orders showed that 129 of them were mailed within 72 hours. Do you think the
company’s claim is true? Use a 2.5% significance level.

Solution
Let p be the proportion of all orders that are mailed by the company within 72 hours, and let be
the corresponding sample proportion. Then, from the given information,

n = 150, pˆ = 129/150=.86, and α = .025

The company claims that at least 90% of all orders are mailed within 72 hours. Assuming that
this claim is true, the values of p and q are

p = .90 and q=1− p=1−.90=.10

To calculate the p-value and to make a decision, we apply the following four steps.

Step 1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

The null and alternative hypotheses are as follows:

H 0 : p ≥ .90
H 1 : p<.90

Step 2. Select the distribution to use.

To check whether the sample is large, we calculate the values of np and nq:
np=150 ( .90 )=135 and nq=150 ( .10 )=15

Since np and nq are both greater than 5, we can conclude that the sample size is large.
Consequently, we will use the normal distribution to find the p-value for this test.

Step 3. Determine the rejection and nonrejection regions.

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The significance level is .025. The < sign in the alternative hypothesis indicates that the test is
left-tailed, and the rejection region lies in the left tail of the sampling distribution of with its area
equal to .025. The critical value of z, obtained from the normal distribution table for .0250 area
in the left tail, is -1.96.

Step 4. Calculate the value of the test statistic.

The value of the test statistic z for _.86 is calculated as follows:

pq ( .90 ) (.10)
σ ^p=
√ √
n
=
^p − p .86−.90
150
=.02449

z= = =−1.63
σ ^p .02449

Step 4. Make a decision.

The value of the test statistic z = -1.63 is greater than the critical value of z = -1.96, and it falls in
the nonrejection region. Therefore, we fail to reject H0. We can state that the difference between
the sample proportion and the hypothesized value of the population proportion is small, and this
difference may have occurred owing to chance alone. Therefore, the proportion of all orders that
are mailed within 72 hours is at least 90%, and the company’s claim is true.

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