PT7MetaUserManaul MS 111504
PT7MetaUserManaul MS 111504
PT7MetaUserManaul MS 111504
SUPPORT
Technical Support Contact Info: metasupport@walterbressert.com
In the event that you do need to contact technical support, you will find our support department very helpful and extremely knowledgeable.
Your free 30-day support period begins with your first support contact. After the 30-day free support period, the charge for support is $30
per incident, unless of course, the problem is within the program itself.
INSTALLATION INSTRUCTIONS
Before installing, go to http://www.walterbressert.com/msinstall.htm for important information.
After you download the initial program, run the Installer. At the end of installation, the ProfitTrader Installer will create two shortcuts on your
desktop – the Registration shortcut and the User Manual shortcut. Launch the Registration shortcut to fill out the Registration form. This
is a required step to receive your permanent key and support as this is the only way support is aware of your purchase.
ProfitTrader is designed to work for 30 days after installation. The initial program, sold with a 30-day MBG, contains a date restriction.
Before the program expires, and at the end of your 30-day trial (whichever comes first) you will receive your permanent program key, which
removes the date restriction, via email. If you have not received the key from us and are having indicator problems, it is most probably
because your program has expired.
PROFITTRADER™ for METASTOCK™ is a powerful group of trading and analysis indicators based upon the market-proven concept of
"trade with the trend". If the trend is up, buy the dips; if the trend is down, sell the rallies. What the trend was is relatively easy to see on the
chart; what the trend will be is often anther question. The ProfitTrader Indicators show the direction of the trading trend and anticipate trend
reversals.
The use of cycles is one of the most powerful analytical tools for identifying trends and trend reversals. Once a cycle has bottomed, the trend
will be up until the cycle has topped; once a cycle has topped, the trend will be down until the cycle bottoms. How long the trend will be up or
down depends upon the length of the cycle.
All markets - stocks, futures, and currencies - move in time cycles. Each market has an individual cycle profile, which consists of dominant
cycles in multiple time frames - monthly, weekly, daily, and intraday -- that visibly and consistently affect prices. Awareness of the longer-
term cycles helps anticipate trends and trend reversals. Knowledge of the shorter-term cycles will help you buy bottoms and sell tops in the
direction of trend and at trend reversals.
Cycle lengths for the stock indices are available on Page 52. Cycle lengths are individual futures or stocks are available by request for up to
five market per request.
The ProfitTrader Indicators are a unique group of oscillators and technical analysis tools that ---
Step1) Determine the direction of the trading trend. The direction of the longer-term cycles set the trading trend for the shorter-term cycle.
For example, the direction of the cycle in the weekly chart sets the trading trend for the cycle in the daily chart. Also, the direction of a weekly
oscillator will often show the trading trend for a daily chart. And, the EMA Trend Indicator and EMA %Dif indicators also indicate trend
direction.
Step 2) Anticipate the most probable time periods for cycles to top in a down trending market, and bottom in an up trending market. These
time periods are forecasted by the Timing Bands and can be used to take profits, and to trade reversals at cycle tops and bottoms with the
mechanical buy/sell signals.
Step 3) In the expected time periods for cycles to top or bottom, watch for indications the market is overbought/oversold, based on
oscillators, and support or resistance levels such as old highs/lows, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracements or extension levels.
Step 4) Based on a combination of the above, use the mechanical trading signal(s) to indicate a high probability cycle tops or bottoms, and
enter the market with an initial protective stop above the cycle high if selling, or below the cycle low if buying.
Step 5) Use trailing stops above swing highs and below swing lows to keep you in trades for the longer-term moves. An effective tighter
trailing stop is a two-price bar reversal that stops you out whenever the high or low of the two previous price bars are taken out (highs if
short; lows if long). Try it… it works.
SECTION II 28
TIMING BANDS
An overview of Cycle Analysis and Forecasting using the PROFITTRADER™ Timing Band
Indicators and Templates.
SECTION III 53
EXPLORATIONS
PROFITTRADER™ FOR METASTOCK™ has 26 Explorations that will help you evaluate and trade
securities, mutual funds and futures contracts.
SECTION IV 57
REFERENCE
Each PROFITTRADER™ Indicator is shown and explained with Styles and Inputs.
SECTION I
PROFITABLE TRADING WITH THE PT OSCILLATORS AND MECHANICAL BUY/SELL SIGNALS
Template 1 - DoubleStoc10 Oscillator with Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals 3
The Double Stochastic oscillator (DBS10) is a powerful trading tool and trend indicator that generates high-probability Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals that also
serve as identifiers of cycle bottoms and tops. The accuracy factor of the Bressert DoubleStoc10 Buy and Sell Signals is approximately 70%.
Template 2 - DBS5 Oscillator With Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals 6
The Bressert DoubleStoc 5 tends to show the smaller cycles and generates Buy and Sell Signals that are up to 90% accurate for the shorter-term cycles. It
also interacts with the DoubleStoc10 to form Buy and Sell Patterns.
Template 3 - BLine Oscillator and Buy/Sell Signals 7
The Bressert BLine oscillator generates Buy/Sell Signals that are even more accurate than the Bressert DoubleStoc in identifying cycle tops and bottoms, 80%
and higher depending upon the market and time frame. The BLine Buy/Sell Signals combine well with the DBS10 Buy/Sell Signals, often confirming a Double
Stoc Signal with a BLine Signal in the following bar. A combined BLine/DBS10 Signal often occurs at significant tops and bottoms.
Template 4 - DBS5 and 10 with Buy/Sell Setup Signals and Oscillator Patterns 9
The DBS10 and DBS5 are powerful stand-alone oscillators that generate high-probability Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals. When the DBS10 and DBS5 Buy/Sell
Signals and Trading Patterns are combined, they become even more powerful and are frequently followed by substantial moves, most often in the direction of
trend.
Template 5 - All (4) Buy/Sell Signals With the BLine Oscillator 14
Four Mechanical Buy and Sell Signals are combined into one Template. The BLine Buy/Sell Signals give the strongest identification of cycle tops, bottoms and
trend reversals, but the combination of two, three and four Trading Signals are often followed by significant moves in the direction of the signal.
Template 6 - Trend Direction 16
The most consistent path to profits is to trade in the direction of trend… and anticipate trend reversals. The EMA Trend Indicator is an excellent tool for
determination of the trading trend, and when combined with the EMA %Diff and MA %Diff Indicators, the odds of catching trend reversals is greatly
increased... by watching the direction of trend relative to the %Diff and the EMA lines, you can trade high-probability Oscillator Patterns based on the
interaction of the DBS5 and the DBS10 in Templates 1-4.
Template 6a - Trend Direction and Bull/Bear Markets 18
The BLine Oscillator can be an indicator of the beginnings and/or endings of both bull and bear markets, especially when combined with the EMA%Diff and
EMA Trend Indicator lines. The BLine Buy/Sell Signals are often followed by much more sizeable moves than the 5 and 10 DoubleStoc Oscillators, and by
watching the direction of the %Diff and the EMA Lines relative to the BLine Buy/Sell Signals, you can often anticipate trend reversals.
Template 7 - Keltner Bands and Buy/Sell Signals 19
Keltner Bands are an excellent and powerful analytical trading tool to anticipate Support and Resistance levels in trending moves, and to also identify
Support/Resistance levels of Congestion Ranges.
Template 8 - Detrend Template Combines Trend With B-S Signals 22
The PT Detrend Template combines the EMA Trend Indicator, %Diff lines, and Buy/Sell Signals to identify high probability trades that often occur at cycle tops
and bottoms in a trending market.
Template 9 35
The #9 Templates include Timing Bands and are explained in Section II
Template 10 25
This template plots the three oscillators, the four Buy/Sell Signals, Trend Indicators, %Diff and Keltner Bands on a single chart. Once you are familiar with the
individual Buy/Sell Signals and the oscillators and Trend Indicators, this chart is the one you should use to trade. It shows the individual Buy/Sell Signals, and
allows you to see the combinations of two, three and four signals occurring at once, plus the 1-2 Buy/Sell Signals.
Expert Advisor 27
For the Buy/Sell signals the Expert Advisor plots arrows on the Buy/Sell Setup Bars and has commentary on entry prices and protective stops. In the Timing
Bands, it shows the most probable time periods for future cycle tops and bottoms (See Page 44).
Copyright © Walter Bressert, Inc. All rights reserved. 1
PROFITTRADER™ for METASTOCK™ MANUAL
The MetaStock program does not allow control of the indicator styles and colors, and a consistent style of color and thickness cannot be set
for individual indicators to plot the same on every chart.
Therefore, PROFITTRADER™ for METASTOCK™ makes extensive use of the Template feature to maintain the same identifiable styles
for individual indicators and combinations of indicators.
When trading any market, it is extremely important to be aware of cycle length and the expected time periods for cycle tops and bottoms.
The ProfitTrader™ oscillators generate Mechanical Buy and Sell Signals that tend to occur at cycle tops and bottoms, and there is an
accuracy factor to consider when using the Mechanical Buy and Sell Signals to both trade and identify cycle tops and bottoms.
The DBS10 tends to make highs and lows at cycle tops and bottoms of an average 17-23 day (or week) trading cycle (price bars for
intraday). This cycle length, measured from bottom-to-bottom, occurs in most time frames - weekly, daily, one-half day, quarter-day, hourly,
20-minute; therefore, we often refer to cycle lengths in "price bars".
The shorter-term DBS5 tends to make highs and lows at cycle tops and bottoms of an average 8-12 day (or price bars) one-half trading
cycle, and often combinations with the DBS10 to generate Buy/Sell Signals at cycle tops and bottoms.
The accuracy factor of the Bressert DoubleStoc10 Buy Signals is approximately 70%. Seven times out of 10, a Buy Signal will occur
following a cycle bottom, which means the cycle is moving up and has yet to top. On the downside, the DBS10 generates Sell Signals that
are approximately 65% accurate in that the signals occur following a cycle top, implying that prices will continue lower into the trading cycle
bottom.
The Bressert DoubleStoc 5 generates Buy and Sell Signals that are up to 90% accurate for the shorter-term cycles.
The DoubleStoc greatly improves the reliability and performance of the standard stochastic oscillator, which wiggles too much to be used to
generate high-probability trading signals. The standard stochastic oscillator also gets stuck at high levels in bull markets, and at low levels in
bear markets. The Bressert DoubleStoc remedies those problems. Unlike the standard stochastic, the Bressert Double Stochastic is
constructed to have increased amplitude in trending markets resulting in 50% more trading signals than the standard stochastic that are on
average 10% to 25% more accurate than the standard stochastic.
Compare the oscillator highs and lows with the cycle bottoms (blue
diamonds), and tops (red diamonds). The correlation of the oscillator tops
and bottoms with the price cycle tops and bottoms is very high, allowing the
oscillator to be used to generate high probability Mechanical Buy and Sell
Signals.
A Buy/Sell Setup is NOT a Buy/Sell Signal until it is entered by a rise above the high of the Buy Setup Bar, or a drop below the Sell
Setup Bar. Buy/Sell Signals should be taken in the direction of trend, and at trend reversals. Ignore signals against the trend, or use
them to take profits.
The vertical green line identifies a Buy Setup Bar generated by an upturn of the blue DBS10 oscillator. It is a Mechanical Buy Signal,
and a buy stop to go long should be placed above the high of the setup price bar indicated by the green line – 1 tick to a point, or more,
depending upon the market and time frame your are trading.
The vertical red line identifies a Sell Setup Bar generated by a downturn of the blue DBS10 oscillator, and a sell stop to go short should
be placed below the downturn Sell Setup Bar indicated by the red line, 1 tick to a point, or more, depending upon the market and time
frame your are trading.
The Mechanical Buy Signals for the DoubleStoc10 are generated by a drop below the lower horizontal blue line, called the Buy Line,
which is set at 40, and an upturn in the oscillator. It is a 3-step process.
1. The DoubleStoc oscillator drops below the Buy Line;
2. The oscillator turns up to identify a BUY Setup Bar with a green up-spike;
3. Buy the high of the Setup Bar with a buy stop 1 tick to a point above it.
Buy Signals should only be taken in the direction of trend and/or at trend reversals.
Sell Signals should only be taken in the direction of trend and/or at trend reversals.
Protective Stop
The Buy and Sell Signals follow cycle tops and bottoms, so the Protective Stops are placed 1 tick to a point or more below the apparent
cycle low for a Buy Signal; and 1 tick to a point, or more, above the apparent cycle high for a Sell Signal. With Protective Stops you are
always in “control” of your dollar risk.
The vertical lines have been plotted by hand for illustration. The
templates do not plot vertical lines.
The Bressert BLine oscillator generates Buy/Sell Signals that are even more accurate than the Bressert DoubleStoc in
identifying cycle tops and bottoms.
Historically, across all markets and time frames, the accuracy of the BLine Buy and Sell Signals in identifying cycle bottoms
and tops as they occur is greater than 80%. Better than 8 times out of 10, a BLine Buy/Sell Signal will occur following a cycle
bottom/top. For example, in the weekly S&P Index, which has an average 20-week cycle, a completed Buy Signal is 86%
accurate in identifying the weekly cycle bottom, implying higher prices into the cycle top, which will most often occur as the
oscillator turns down. In the daily chart, which has a 20-day trading cycle, a BLine Mechanical BLine Buy Signal is 84%
accurate in that the signal occurs following a cycle bottom, implying a continued up move into the cycle top.
The BLine wiggles less than the DoubleStoc, generating fewer Trading Signals, but the Buy/Sell Signals often occur a bar or
two after the DBS10 Signals. The price for greater accuracy of cycle top and bottom identification is entering the market a bar
or two later with somewhat increased dollar risk.
The BLine Buy/Sell Signals combine well with the DBS10 Buy/Sell Signals, often confirming a Double Stoc Signal with a
BLine Signal, the following bar. A combined BLine/DBS10 Signal often occurs at significant tops and bottoms.
As with the DoubleStoc oscillator, the signals must be traded in the direction of trend, or at anticipated trend reversals.
3. Place a Buy Stop to go long above the high of the Buy Setup
Bar (above the vertical green line).
3. Place a Sell Stop to go short below the Sell Setup Bar (above
the vertical red line.)
The vertical colored lines are for illustration. They are not plotted in the
Template.
The DBS5 Buy/Sell Setup Signals are plotted above the DBS10
Buy/Sell Setup Signals. A green up-spike indicates a Buy Setup Bar,
and a rise above the high of that price bar will generate a Mechanical
Buy Signal. A red down-spike indicates a Sell Setup Bar, and a drop
below the low of that price bar will generate a Mechanical Sell Signal.
Swing Trading With the Double Buy/Sell and 1-2 Buy/Sell Patterns
The Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals are pretty good by themselves, but when Buy or Sell Signals occur at the same time in both the DBS10
and DBS5 oscillators (Double Buy/Sell), or when Buy or Sell Signals occur within two price bars of one another (1-2 Buy/Sell), there is
often a sizeable move to a cycle or swing high/low.
Hands-on
You can best see the interaction of these powerful Trading Patterns and Buy/Sell Signals by building an $SPX
chart and applying Template 4. You can then expand the chart to full size to get maximum benefit from these
patterns.
Chart 4A Chart 4B
• The trading trend is down when the blue EMA line is moving down and the red EMA line is below it and moving down.
• The trading trend is up when the blue EMA line is moving up, and the red EMA line is above it and moving up.
This combination of the red and blue EMA Trend Indicator lines will have you trading in the right direction for much of a trending move;
however, it tends to miss the beginning of new trending moves that often follow trend reversals. Fortunately, these moves can be picked up
by the %Diff Indicator, which is the %Difference between the two EMA Trend Indicator lines, and is plotted on the chart as a dashed red line.
Trend direction can best be seen in a combination of the EMA Trend Indicator lines and the %Diff lines. The red EMA Trend Indicator line
and the dashed red EMA %Diff line show trend direction when both are moving in the same direction. Use the combination of the direction of
the red EMA %Diff and red EMA line as a filter to trade in the direction of trend. When these two lines are moving up, trade the Buy Signals;
when these two lines are moving down, trade the Sell Signals.
• The trading trend is up when the red EMA line is moving up and the dashed red EMA%Diff line is also moving up.
• The trading trend is down when the red EMA line is moving down and the dashed red EMA%Diff line is also moving down.
The interaction of prices with the red and blue EMA lines can also be very helpful to determine trade direction.
• When the red EMA line is above the blue and prices drop down to the blue line, finding support as the oscillator is at an oversold low,
a trading cycle is frequently making a bottom and Buy Signals can be taken.
• When the red EMA is below the blue and prices move up, meeting resistance at the blue EMA line as the oscillators are overbought
a trading cycle top is frequently topping, and Sell Signals can be taken.
Also, by watching the direction of trend relative to the %Diff and the EMA lines, you can trade oscillator patterns based on the interaction of
the purple DBS5 and the blue DBS10.
The blue EMA line is moving down, with the red EMA line below the blue and generally moving lower. And in a strong downtrend the %Diffs
will also be moving down as the red EMA line is moving down…. The trend is clearly down when both %Diffs and the red EMA are moving
down at the same time.
The blue EMA line will often become a resistance level for a cycle top in a downtrend, and Sell Signals should be taken.
The blue EMA line is moving up, and the red is above the blue and generally rising as shown by the %Diff indicators…The trend is clearly up
when both %Diffs and the red EMA are moving up at the same time.
The blue EMA line will often become a support level for a cycle bottom in an uptrend, and buy signals should be taken.
Review these guidelines for trend direction in your favorite markets and time frames.
Keltner Bands
Keltner Bands are an excellent and powerful analytical trading tool to anticipate Support and Resistance levels in trending
moves, and to also identify Support/Resistance levels of Congestion ranges.
A Keltner Band is based on a 45-bar moving average (day, week, month, intraday price bar, etc.), and a Standard Deviation
move away from the 45-bar centerline, based on the average true range.
The Keltner Bands can be used for Support/Resistance levels, and can also be combined with Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals as in
Template 7.
The Standard Deviation used in this chart is 1.95, but following the downside breakout would be increased to 6 or 8. Prices
reaching a widely watched Standard Deviation of 6 or 8 will often end a move.
Hands-On
To get a “feel” for the Keltner Bands, change the STD DEV in monthly, weekly, daily (and
intraday, if you have it) charts from 1 to 8 to see how the Bands change.
Chart Legend: The Keltner Bands are the thick cyan lines on either side of the
dashed centerline…The BLine Buy/Sell Setups are in the top Window… The
DBS5 Buy/Sell Setups are above the oscillators in Window 3… The BLine and
DBS5 oscillators are in the bottom Window. Copyright © Walter Bressert, Inc. All rights reserved. 20
PROFITTRADER™ for METASTOCK™ MANUAL
The DBS5 generated a Sell Setup Bar; then, the BLine generated a Sell Setup Bar as prices were testing the upper Keltner Band. This
Pattern was again followed by a sizeable down move as prices first tested the lower Keltner Band; then broke through it and continued lower
to make a final bottom with a 1-2 Buy Pattern of a DBS5 Buy Setup followed by a BLine Buy Setup, indicated by the green diamonds.
Keltner Bands can be used to see Support/Resistance levels as a market moves sideways; and using more sizeable Standard
Deviation moves away from the centerline will often seem to stop a price move at a 6, 7, or 8 Standard Deviations move, as
occurred at the 1-2 Buy in late April.
Hands-On
Plot GE yourself and change the Standard Deviation move from 1.95 to a 6 to see how it stopped
the down move.
Additional PT indicators, such as Timing Bands and Trend Indicators would normally be applied
to the chart (or perhaps to another chart to prevent "chart congestion").
PT Detrend Template – Detrending Shows Trend with Cycle Tops and Bottoms
The PT Detrend Template with the EMA Trend Indicator, %Diff lines, and Buy/Sell Signals identifies high probability trades that often occur
at cycle tops and bottoms in a trending market.
• The PT Detrend indicator shows over-extensions that can be used to help identify and trade cycle tops and bottoms as they occur,
especially when combined with trend direction and Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals.
• The EMA Trend indicator is an excellent tool for the determination of trend as previously shown, but typically misses the early stages
of a change in trend direction.
• The dashed red %Diff line often identifies the trend change as it occurs (thus, it combines well with the EMA Trend Indicator), and
also shows strong trending moves that invite add-on positions at cycle turning points or swing highs/lows.
Detrend Template 8
Combines Trend
With B-S Signals
• DBS5 B-S;
• BLine EOD;
• EMATrend and %Diff;
• Detrend RT
The red Detrend at the top of
the weekly GE chart shows a
tendency for cycle tops and
bottoms to occur above 7 and
below -7. The uptrend is
shown by the EMA Trend
Indicator and the %Diff. In the
EMA Trend Indicator, when
the blue line is moving up and
the red is above the blue, the
trend is generally up; and
when the blue is moving down
and the red below it, the trend
is generally down.
The vertical lines run through
cycle bottoms, and the blue
vertical lines run through
cycle tops.
These lines have been hand
entered for illustration and are
not automatically plotted by
Chart Legend: The green vertical lines run through cycle bottoms, and the blue vertical lines run through cycle tops… Buy and
Sell Signals for the DoubleStoc5 oscillator are at the bottom of the screen (90 SellLine; 15 BuyLine)… A green up-spike identifies a the template
DBS5 Buy Setup Bar, and a red down-spike identifies a DBS5 Sell Setup Bar… The red BLine oscillator is below prices to combine
with the DBS5 B-S SIGS and detrend to identify the tradable tops and bottoms.
Buy and Sell Setups for DBS5 Entry Signals are at the bottom of the screen. A green up-spike identifies a Buy Setup bar, and a red down-
spike identifies a Sell Setup bar.
As GE is trending up the green cycle lines show the cycle lows on the price chart, and these lows coincide with downside extremes in the
Detrend. The combination of a Detrend extreme and the Mechanical Buy Signal shows four high probability Buy Signals that were followed
by sizable up moves.
As GE tops and moves down, the blue cycle lines show the cycle tops that occurred at the upside over-extensions. Using the extremes of
the Detrend to qualify the red Sell Setup Signals resulted in four high probability Sell Signals that were followed by declines, as shown by the
red down-spikes that followed the blue cycle lines.
#9 Templates (9a, 9b, 9c, and 9 EOD Combo and 9 Intra Combo) are show in Section II, Page 35.
This template plots the three oscillators, the four Buy/Sell Signals,
Trend Indicators, %Diff and Keltner Bands on a single chart. Once
you are familiar with the individual Buy/Sell Signals and the oscillators
and Trend Indicators, this chart is the one you should use to trade. It
shows the individual Buy/Sell Signals, and allows you to see the
combinations of two, three and four signals occurring at once, plus the
1-2 Buy/Sell Signals. It gives you a bird’s eye view of what has
happened in the past relative to the multiple signals and the oscillators
while you keep a close eye on trend, both in the Trend Indicators and
in the oscillators, because the oscillators themselves show trend.
When a 10DBS is moving down on a weekly chart that is the trend for
a daily chart.
Template 10 Intra –
ALL INDICATORS
ProfitTrader Provides Expert Advisor for Buy/Sell Signals and Timing Bands.
ProfitTrader provides Expert Advisor for Buy/Sell Signals and Timing Bands. The Buy/Sell Signals are designed to buy
cycle bottoms and sell cycle tops. Review the use of the Buy/Sell Signals and the Templates in the Manual; then, bring
them up on screen to become familiar with them.
The Expert Advisor explains how to determine the price for the Buy/Sell Signals and where to place the initial Protective
Stops.
The Expert Advisor plots an arrow on the Setup Bar to alert you to a potential Buy/Sell Signal. Clicking on the arrow
shows you the Expert Advisor, which explains where to place your orders to enter and exit the market. Only one Buy/Sell
Signal with Expert Advisor can be plotted on a single chart, but the Buy/Sell Signals generated by the green/red "V’s" can
be seen on all charts. By plotting the four regular Buy/Sell Signals on one chart, you can see when the Buy/Sell Signals
without an Expert Advisor match the Expert Advisor signal for a double, triple, or quad Buy/Sell, or a 1-2 Buy/Sell.
SECTION II
TIMING BANDS
An overview of Cycle Analysis and Forecasting using the PROFITTRADER™ Timing Band Indicators and Templates.
Cycle Lengths 52
TIMING BANDS
Cycle projections allow reasonably accurate forecasting of significant time periods for future tops and bottoms. The cycles used in our
analysis are as long as four years for the Stock Market, and as short-term as minutes or ticks for intraday trading.
The ProfitTrader Timing Bands, a powerful forecasting and trading tool based on historical cycle tops and bottoms, forecast the most
probable time periods for cycle tops and bottoms. Timing Bands for current time are plotted on a chart, but do not show beyond the edge of
the chart. However, the exact dates/time periods for forecasting future Timing Bands may be viewed in the MetaStock Expert Advisor (page
38).
Seventy percent of all cycle tops and bottoms have occurred on, or after, the beginning of a Timing Band. Forty percent of the historical
cycle tops and bottoms have occurred within the time parameters of a Timing Band. Thirty percent occurred before the beginning of the
Timing Band, and 30% occurred after the end of the Band.
Because price cycles are not exact and can contract and extend, a 20-day cycle will not bottom every 20 days. One cycle might be 15 days,
another might be 26-days from bottom-to-bottom. Timing Bands quantify cycles and accommodate this shift in time. Generally, the most
symmetrical, balanced and tradable cycles occur within the middle 40%, and the cycles that have a sizeable extension occur in the last 30%.
It is the 30% of cycle tops and bottoms occurring before the timing bands that are often the riskiest to trade because often a swing top or
bottom can look like a cycle top or bottom until the market makes a quick reversal and stops you out.
When trading the markets, Timing Bands are a guideline to improve the accuracy of the Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals generated by the
Bressert Double Stochastic. These Buy and Sell Signals have an average accuracy of identifying cycle tops and bottoms across all time
frames of better than 70% that is increased when the signal occurs within a Timing Band.
Awareness of the one-half cycles makes it easier to identify and trade the 20-day trading cycle. Once you identify the low of the first
10-day cycle, you know the next 10-day cycle bottom will be the low of the 20-day cycle as well. Important to know because the
accuracy of identifying 10-day cycles with the Bressert Double Stochastic averages better than 80% in all time frames, all markets.
The accuracy of identifying the 20-bar trading cycle averages about 70%, and awareness of the 10-bar cycle can increase the
accuracy of buying bottoms and selling tops of the trading cycle.
Right Translation
A weekly cycle moving up shows as a bull rising market on a daily chart, with the
trading trend up. Therefore, the daily trading cycle will have Right Translation, meaning
it leans to the right as the market is moving up (long upmove followed by a short
downmove as shown in this chart). In bull markets showing Right Translation, the top of
the 20-day cycle is most often the top of the second 10-day cycle.
Right Translation shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading cycle.
On average the move from bottom-to-top will be three weeks, and the move from top-
to-bottom, one week. Knowing this makes it easier to hold a long position through the
decline into the bottom of the first 10-day cycle, or even making an add on to the long
position, expecting to take profits as the second 10-day cycle tops, often with a
Mechanical Sell Signal.Time forecasts for cycle tops and bottoms can be narrowed
using the Timing Bands.
Left Translation
When the weekly cycle is moving down, the daily cycle has Left Translation,
meaning it leans to the left (short upmove followed by an extended decline as
shown in the chart.) In a bear market with Left Translation the top of the 20-day
cycle is most often made as the first 10-day cycle tops.
Left Translation shows in the time periods for bottoms and tops of the trading
cycle. On average the move from bottom-to-top will be one week, and the move
from top-to-bottom, three weeks. Knowing this can give you the confidence to hold
a short position through the rise into the high of the second 10-day cycle, or add
on to the short position expecting to take profits as the 20-day and 10-day cycles
bottom with a Mechanical Buy Signal.
Expecting Left Translation in a declining market, you can look to sell the second
10-day cycle top in a failure pattern if it fails to exceed the previous 10-day cycle
top, as the market often drops sharply into the 20 and 10-day cycle bottom.
At times the 10-day cycle will show up very distinctly. At other times it may seem to disappear, or it can be a combination of a short
cycle and a long cycle. For example, the first ½ trading cycle may contract to seven days and the second may stretch to 13 days. Or
the first ½ trading cycle may stretch while the second contracts. The 20-day cycle also contracts and expands, and as the dominant
cycle its activity will affect the lengths of the two one-half trading cycles.
If the 20-day cycle contracts to 15 days, the 10-day cycle may seem to disappear, or there may be two smaller cycles close to the
same length such as seven and eight days. There can also be an extreme of a short and a long, such as a four and 11. If it stretches
to 28 days, the ½ trading cycles are likely to be longer as well.
With cycles stretching, contacting and disappearing they can be hard to identify at times, and the lows and highs of the ProfitTrader
oscillators often coincide with the 10-day (bar) cycles and also the 20-day (bar) cycles.
Knowing these characteristics, we can look for failure patterns that combine with the ProfitTrader Buy and Sell Signals to generate
high-probability trades at cycle tops and bottoms. Also, using the timing of cycles, you will know approximately when to expect the
daily cycles to top and bottom.
Most markets and time frames have a tradable cycle of 14-28 bars, and the highs and lows of these cycles frequently show as highs at
overbought oscillator tops, and lows at oversold oscillator bottoms.
There are three Timing Bands and four Templates that plot the Timing Bands --
1. The Trough-to-Crest (T-C) Timing Band forecasts the most probable time period for a cycle top (crest) from an identified cycle bottom
(trough). (Template 9a – Wb T-C Tbands EOD)
2. The Trough-to-Trough (T-T) Timing Band forecasts the most probable time for the next cycle to bottom. (Template 9b – Wb T-T
Tbands EOD)
3. The Crest-to-Trough (C-T) Timing Band also forecasts a time period for a cycle to bottom that frequently overlaps with the Trough-to-
Trough Timing Band. (Template 9c – Wb C-T Tbands EOD).
Template 9 EOD (or Intra) – Wb Tbands T-t T-c C-t combines all three Timing Bands, and this is the Template used to trade.
The following pages introduce you to using Timing Band Templates to plot the Timing Bands, including a Practice Timing Band Exercise at
the end of this Section on Page 51.
To view Inputs for the EOD Timing Bands, refer to Page 45.
To view Inputs for the Intra Timing Bands, refer to Page 48.
To view cycle lengths for the most popular markets, including how to do cycle phasing, refer to Page 52.
• The T-T is a bottom-to- bottom indicator, so a bottom date must be entered to project the time band for the NEXT cycle bottom.
• The T-C is a bottom-to-top indicator, so enter the bottom date and it will project the time band for the NEXT cycle top.
• The C-T is a top-to-bottom indicator, so it needs a top date and projects a Timing Band for the NEXT cycle bottom.
Timing Bands are NOT automatic. They do require user input. Each Timing Band requires the
input of a date as a starting point for the Timing Band to plot.
To enter or change dates or other inputs for any of the Timing Bands, right click
on the indicator in the subgraph as shown by the arrow in the chart to the left,
and the Properties Panel opens as shown on the following page.
The way to enter dates or modify input information is to right click on the indicator in the subgraph and go to inputs. Like this --
Now the Timing band should produce two blips. The first one is a single blip to identify the chosen
starting point and the other, a longer blip, is the projected bottom. Do this for each Timing Band. The
chart on the left shows what it should look like.
It is recommended that you study the manual and practice entering Timing Band dates. Once you are
comfortable with entering dates, you will find the Timing Bands to be of great value.
For trading the S&P Index intraday, the price data should be for the day session only.
Once the cycle low is confirmed by a Buy Signal, the days of the
week, and dates for the beginning and end of the Trough-to-Trough
Timing Band can be seen using the Expert Advisor. Therefore, from
a cycle bottom, the approximate time periods for the cycle to top,
and bottom can be anticipated.
As time progresses, the market will top and a third Timing Band
can be plotted, called the Crest-to-Trough Band, which helps fine-
tune the identification of the time period for the next cycle low.
Using the Expert Advisor, the actual dates of the days and days of
the week are shown at the bottom of the chart.
Each of the three Timing Bands has a Template, allowing the individual
Timing Bands to be plotted on any chart. Template #9 plots all three Time
Bands on the same chart.
Now that you have entered the Inputs and plotted the separate Timing
Bands, this will be the template you use to forecast future Timing Bands
from each cycle bottom/top as you are trading..
In the top Window, the time period for the cycle crest shows by the
protrusion of the green line into the Window. The Expert Advisor can also
be used to get the exact dates and days of the week.
Template #9 plots all three Intra Time Bands on the same chart.
In the top Window, the time period for the cycle crest shows by the
protrusion of the green line into the Window. Expert Advisor should also
be used to get the exact intraday time periods for the forecasted future
cycle tops and bottoms.
The Timing Bands are 40% Timing Bands, and 70% of the Bands occur in, or following the Timing Band as explained earlier.
A review of the Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals and trading patterns will show the cycle bottoms and tops in this example were identified by,
and could have been traded by the ProfitTrader Mechanical Trading Signals.
The Timing Bands are not perfect, and cycle tops and bottoms do occur before and after the Bands; however, the Bands do give you an
element of time not available through any other approach, and Mechanical Trading Signals that occur within the Timing Bands do generate
high probability Buy/Sell Signals… But, as always, trade in the direction of trend, or at anticipated Trend Reversals.
In Summation
TRADE WITH THE TREND -- When the trend is UP, buy cycle and/or swing bottoms; when the trend is DOWN, sell
cycle and/or swing tops.
The ProfitTrader EMA Trend Indicator lines and %Diffs, combined with the direction indicated by the longer-term
oscillators will provide a confidence level for trend direction that is unique to cycle trading and ProfitTrader.
Developing this "confidence level" may take some study and experimentation to learn how to combine the ProfitTrader
Trend Indicators with swings and the Mechanical Trading Signals that identify cycle tops and bottoms.
To forecast the time periods for future tops and bottoms, you can use the Timing Bands to visually show the time periods on the chart.
However, you also have the option to use the Expert Advisor, which will give you the exact dates of the beginning and ending of each of the
Timing Bands.
To use the Expert Advisor, have the TBand indicator on the chart with the required Inputs specified. With the TBand indicator on the chart
and the Inputs specified, follow the steps below.
1. Right click on an open space in the price data chart and choose "Expert Advisor".
2. Then, choose "Attach"
3. Then, choose the appropriate commentary.
4. Next, right click in the Price Data Window again, and choose "Expert Advisor". This time, choose "Commentary", and a Window will
pop up called "Commentary Window", with an icon of a box. Double click on the icon and the "Expert Commentary" text will come up
projecting the beginning and ending dates/times for the cycle Timing Band.
5. Repeat the process for each of the other Timing Bands, recording them in a notebook as the Commentary text is erased when the
next Commentary comes up.
Interval: The time period of the price bar; 15 for a 15minute bar chart; 60 for a 60minute bar chart, etc.
Date: Must be entered as shown (month, day, year)
When changing the year do NOT use the UP/DOWN ARROW. This will not work as it puts decimals in the year
(2003.200). You must manually type in the year you want like “2003”.
The best way to become familiar with the Timing Bands is to go back several months in a daily chart to forecast the cycle tops and bottom
Timing Bands as they plot forward.
Putting the Timing Band indicators on the chart using the Templates included in ProfitTrader.
1. Right click on a chart | Click on “Apply Template” to view a list of templates | Choose Template 9a-Wb-T-C Tbands EOD (the EOD
Trough-to-Crest Timing Band).
You will see the Trough-to-Crest Band on the top, with prices below it, and the oscillators below prices.
2. Enter the date, etc., and you will see a “blip” on the chart showing the count start point. The projected time period will show as a
“hump”.
If it is a historical projection, you do not need to use the Experts. But if the time projection is off the screen and into the future, then you must
apply the TT Expert Advisor, then apply the commentary. This is explained on Page 44.
3. Right-click on the chart | Choose “Expert Advisor” | Choose” Attach” | Choose the” TBand TT Expert”, “TC Expert” or “TT Expert”.
4. Then, Right-click on the chart again | Choose Expert Advisor | Choose Commentary. You will see an icon to click on to give the
future time projection.
Next, plot the Trough-to-Trough Timing Band with Template 9b_Wb T-T TBands (EOD) on Page 39. This will plot the Trough-to-Trough
Timing Band. Then, when a cycle top has been identified, plot the Crest-to-Trough Timing Band Template 9c_Wb C-t TBands (EOD) on
Page 40.
The template you will use for trading is the EOD Timing Band Template 9 Combo that plots all three Timing Bands (Template 9
EOD_Wb Tbands_T-t T-c C-t). With the experience of using the three individual Templates, it will be easy to use this single Template.
Cycle Lengths
To determine the cycle length for any market, follow these steps.
Cycles are measured from bottom-to-bottom and most markets have cycle lengths of 14-28 price bars (days, weeks and intraday time
frames).
1. Plot the blue 10DoubleStoc oscillator below prices. This oscillator tops and bottoms with approximately 70% of all cycles.
2. Start at the far left of the chart, and on the chart identify the low price bar as the 10DoubleStoc oscillator bottoms.
3. Count the price bars from bottom-to-bottom for 20, 30 or 50 cycles.
4. Then, calculate the average length from bottom-to-bottom and you will have a reasonably accurate cycle length to use with the
Timing Bands.
5. Once you have the cycle length you can plot the Detrend Indicator, under the DoubleStoc for a better picture of the cycles
SECTION III
ProfitTrader for Metastock has 26 Explorations that will help you evaluate and trade securities, mutual funds and futures
contracts based on:
• Trend direction.
• Trend reversals and cycle direction (cycle tops and bottoms of longer time frames become trend reversals for the
shorter time frames.
• The cycle direction shows trend—the cycle and oscillator direction in the weekly chart sets the trend for the daily chart,
monthly for the weekly chart.
• Explorer Combinations - You can only run one Explorer at a time and they cannot be combined UNLESS the user
creates his own Explorers. The indicator calls have been left open for that purpose.
By default, the MetaStock Exploer will choose to load “Minimum Records” for each Exploration. This is not enough data. To
increase the data, go to the Explorer List, highlight one of them and choose the “Options” button. Click on “Load Minimum Records”.
Change to “Load xxx Records”. We recommend at least 1000 bars, and as high as 10,000 bars. Then, run your tests to see results.
WB:BLine is OS (Oversold)
The BLine is OS when prices fall below the BuyLine, and can be expected to make a cycle bottom and generate a Buy Signal.
“WB:BLine Buy
Depending upon the market and time frame, approximately 80-90% of the Buy Signals occur as the cycle is rising from the cycle bottom.
“WB:BLine Sell
Depending upon the market and time frame approximately 80-90% of the Sell Signals occur as the cycle is falling from the cycle top.
“WB:DBS is Falling
A falling DBS is generally followed by a decline into a trading cycle bottom and a Buy Signal.
“WB:High5
This sell pattern generally occurs in downtrends and is often followed by 1 to 3+ days down to a swing low. It can be followed by a trend
reversal up, following the swing low.
“WB:Low5
This buy signal generally occurs in uptrends and is often followed by 1 to 3+ days up to a swing high. It can be followed by a trend reversal
down.
SECTION IV
REFERENCE – Profitable Trading With PROFITTRADER™ Oscillators and Mechanical Buy/Sell Signals
Each PROFITTRADER™ Indicator is shown and explained with Styles and Inputs.
TREND 73
EMA Trend Indicator 74
EMA %Diff 76
MA %Diff 78
The ProfitTrader™ oscillators are unique, and show oversold and overbought levels in all markets and all time frames.
They are used to identify tops and bottoms, determine trend, and to generate high-probability Mechanical Buy/Sell
Signals.
Based on Oscillator and Price Patterns, the Mechanical Buy and Sell Signals are generally 70% to 90% accurate in identifying
cycle bottoms and tops. The Buy/Sell Signals are generated in two steps.
When the oscillator turns above or below an oscillator Buy/Sell Line, a potential change in market momentum is indicated by a
colored up-spike (green) or down-spike (red), which identifies the “Setup Bar”.
When prices exceed the high of a Buy Setup Bar, a Buy “Trigger Entry” occurs. When prices drop below the low of a Sell Setup
Bar, a Sell “Trigger Entry” occurs. This increases the accuracy of the Buy/Sell Signals by 5% to 15% more than entering on the
close of the Setup Bar.
The trading signals are most profitable when trading in the direction of trend.
Multiple entries for a Buy/Sell Signal on a single price bar are often more reliable indicators of significant cycle tops and bottoms
than a single entry.
“WB:DBS10 EOD
Style Color
DStoc Blue
SellLine Blue
BuyLine Blue
The DoubleStoc5 Buy Line is set at 10; the Sell Line, at 90, to
identify the extremes often reached as the short-term cycles top
and bottom.
“WB:DBS5 EOD
Style Color
DStoc Magenta
SellLine Red
BuyLine Red
The green up-spikes occur below the Buy Setup Bars, and a rise
above the high of the Bull Setup Bar will generate an entry signal.
The red down-spikes occur below the Sell Setup Bars and a drop
below the price low of a Sell Setup Bar will generate a sell signal.
The Expert Advisor identifies the Buy/Sell Setup Bars with up/dn
arrows.
Odds are 80%+ that following a Buy or Sell Signal prices will
continue in the direction of the trade until the cycle tops or
bottoms.
The Expert Advisor identifies the Buy/Sell Setup Bars with up/dn
arrows.
The Expert Advisor identifies the Buy/Sell Setup Bars with up/dn
arrows.
The most important aspect in trading the market is trend. The only "Holy Grail" of trading is -- Trade with the trend; if it is
up, buy the dips; if it is down, sell the rallies. We use four indicators to help identify trend and trade trend. Once trend is
identified, cycles are used to buy bottoms in the direction of trend, if up; or sell tops in the direction of trend, if down. Also,
using cycles, we can anticipate and trade trend reversals.
The direction of the trading trend is explained in greater detail in Section II: Template Nos. 6 and 6A.
Style Color
SMA Red
LMA Blue
Inputs Default
SEMA 23
LEMA 50
The EMA %_Diff plots as a thin red line in the price panel showing
the direction of the trading trend.
“WB:EMA%Diff EOD
Use this indicator to keep you on the right side of the trend. See Template 6 and 6A.
Style Color
%EMA Red
Inputs Default
SEMA 23
LEMA 50
The MA%_Diff plots as a green line in the price panel showing the
direction of the trading trend.
Style Color
%MA Green
Inputs Default
SMA 23
LMA 50
Most cycles top and bottom when a market is overbought or oversold. While the BLine and Double Stoc oscillators show
these extremes when the oscillators are above 90 and below 10, the Keltner Bands and Real-Time Detrend will often
show the extremes a market can reach. When the oscillators are overbought/oversold and the markets reach the
extremes indicated by the Keltner Bands and Detrend, a trading signal in the opposite direction will frequently confirm a
cycle top or bottom.
“WB:DeTrend RT EOD
Style Color
CMA High / CMA Low Red Histogram
BuyLine / SellLine Red Histogram