PROBABILITY *meaning*

A. DEFINITION OF TERMS
 An experiment is an activity or procedure that produces distinct well-defined possibilities.
 An outcome is the possible result(s) of an experiment which can be observed and measured but cannot be predicted with
certainty.
 A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of an experiment, denoted by S.
 A sample point is any element of the sample space.
 A simple event is a set containing only one element of the sample space.
 A compound event is a set that can be expressed as the union of simple event.

Example 1: A fair die is rolled and the number of dots appearing on the top face is recorded. The experiment involved here is
the act of rolling a die and this gives a sample space S={1, 2, 3, 4, 5,6}. The cardinality of the sample space is n(S)=6. Examples of
simple events are the event when 1 will show up or the event when 5 will show up. An example of a compound event is when a 1
or a 5 will show up.

B. PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
If the sample space S contains m equally likely outcomes [i.e., n(S) = m] and if k of the m outcomes corresponds to the
k n( A)
P ( A) 
event A [i.e., n(A) = k], then m or n( S ) .
1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
2. If P(A) = 1, then A is a sure event for the sample space S.
3. If P(A) = 0, then A is an impossible event.
4. If P(Ac) = P(A’) = 1 - P(A), where Ac = A’ is the complement of A.

Example 2: A fair coin is tossed once. What are the possible outcomes? What is the probability of each outcome?
Solution: The experiment here is the act of tossing a fair coin and the sample space is S = {head, tail}, so n(S) = 2. Since the coin is
1
P (head ) 
fair, there is no way that any of the possible outcomes is more likely to occur than the other. Therefore, 2.
1
P (tail ) 
Similarly, 2.

Example 3: From the die experiment described in example 1, what is the probability of getting an even number?
Solution: In rolling a fair die the sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 6} and n(S) = 6. Again, because the die is fair, all the six possible
1
outcomes are equally likely to occur i.e, each outcome has probability 6 . The event A that an even number will show up is the
3 1

set A = {2, 4, 6}. So, the probability that an even number will show up, P(A), is 6 2 .

Example 4: Five cards are drawn from a standard deck of 52 cards. What is the probability that all the five cards are spades?
Solution: Since in drawing five cards from a standard deck of 52 cards the sample space S = {any combination of 5 cards} then,
n(S) = C(52, 5) = 2598960. Now, there are 13 spades of which 5 must be taken. Thus, there are C(13,5) = 1287 possible
1287 33

combinations of five spades. Therefore, the P(drawing five spades) = 2598960 66640 .

ADDITION RULE: If events A and B are mutually exclusive, i.e. they have no outcome in common, then the probability that either
A or B will happen is given by the following formula:
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 5: Two fair dice are rolled. What is the probability that the sum of the dots appearing on both dice is 7 or 9?
Solution: The cardinality of the sample space is n(S) = 6 2 = 36. Now, let A = {sum of 7} = {(1, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (6, 1), (5, 2), (4, 3)};
6
n(A) = 6. Thus, P(sum of 7) = 36 . In addition, let B = {sum of 9} = {(3, 6), (4, 5), (6, 3), (5,4)}; n(A) = 4 and, consequently, P(sum of
4 6 4 10 5
  
9) = 36 . Therefore, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) = 36 36 36 18 .
1. The Addition Rule can be extended to more than two events. That is, if A 1, A2, …, An are mutually exclusive events, then P(A1 or
A2 or … or An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + … + P(An).
2. In general, if A and B are any events, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B). Consequently, P(A and B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A or B).

2 2
Example 6: In a certain college, it is known that 3 of the graduating class are under 25 years of age. It is also known that 5 of
3
the graduating class are male and 8 are female or at least 25 years old. If a student is chosen at random, what is the probability
that the student is a female and at least 25 years old?
: Let M = {male students}, F = {female students}, T = {students under 25 years of age}, and T’ = {students at least 25 years
Solution
2 2 3 2 1 3
P(M) = P(F) = 1   P (T ' )  1  
of age}. Then we have 5, 5 5, 3 3 ; and P(F or T’) = 8
. Now,
P(F or T’) = P(F) + P(T’) - P(F and T’)
3 3 1
  
8 5 3
P(F and T’)
3 1 3 67
  
5 3 8 120
P(F and T’) =
67
120
Therefore the probability that the chosen student is a female and at least 25 years old is .

Example 7: If two cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards, without replacement, what is the probability that both are
diamonds or both are face cards?
Solution: The sample space is S = {any combination of two cards} whose cardinality is n(S) = C(52, 2) = 1326. Let A = event of
78
1326
getting two diamonds and it can be argued that n(A) = C(13, 2), and consequently, P(A) = . In addition, let B = event of
66
1326
getting two face cards and we have n(B) = C(12, 2) = 66. Hence, P(B) = . Now, there are 13 diamonds, 3 of which are face
C (3,2) 3 1 78 66 1 47
    
C (52,2) 1326 442 1326 1326 442 442
cards so P(A and B) = . Therefore, P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B) =
.

C.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The probability that event B will happen given that another event A has already happened is called a conditional
probability. Since only the sample points in B that also belong to A are counted, the conditional probability of B given A is given
by
P ( AandB)
P( A)
P(B ǀ A) =

Example 8: Consider again the die experiment. Find the probability that the number of dots showing is an even number given
that it is greater than 2?
Solution: Let A = event that the number of dots showing is even = {2, 4, 6} = 3 and let B = event that the number of dots showing
is greater than 2 = {3, 4, 5, 6}. The occurrence of event A is relative to the occurrence of event B. Hence, the sample space is
reduced to B = {3, 4, 5, 6}. Two of these correspond to the occurrence of A, i.e. {4, 6}. Therefore, the probability of A given B, P(A
 n( A  B ) 2 1
 
n( B ) 4 2
ǀ B) is equal to .

Example 9: Suppose the sample space S is the population of smokers and non-smarlokers in a certain town. They were
categorized whether they have lung cancer or not. (See table.)

Smoker Non-Smoker
With lung cancer 865 256
Without lung cancer 393 958
One of these Total 1258 1214 individuals is to
be selected at random to
publicize the disadvantages of smoking in one’s health. What is the probability that the person chosen has lung cancer given that
he or she smokes?
Solution: Let L = event that the person chosen has lung cancer
A = event that the person chosen smokes

865
P ( LandA) 2472 865
 
P ( A) 1258 1258
2472
Using the reduced sample space A, P(L ǀ A) = .

INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Two events A and B are said to be independent if the occurrence of event A is in no way affected by the occurrence or non-
occurrence of event B. Similarly, A and B are independent if
P (B ǀ A) = P(B) and P(A ǀ B) = P(A)
Since P (B ǀ A) = P(B), then P(B and A) = P (B ǀ A) P(A) = P(B) P(A). We state this in the following rule:

MULTIPLICATION RULE FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Example 10: An urn contains 3 red, 4 green, and 4 yellow marbles. Two balls are drawn at random. Find the probability that they
are both green if
a.
The first ball is replaced before the second ball is drawn?
b.
The first ball is not replaced before the second ball is drawn?

Solution: a. Here, getting a green ball on the second draw is not affected whether or not a green ball has already been drawn. So,
4 12 6
 
11 110 55
P(both green) = P(1st draw is green) × P(2nd draw is green) = .

EXERCISES
A.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
1.
A box contains 2 green socks, 2 blue socks, and 2 red socks. Two socks are drawn at random. Find the probability that
they are a match (same color)

2.
A high school graduating class consists of 25 males and 33 females. One-fifth of the males and one-eleventh of the
 females graduated with honors. Find the probability that a person chosen at random is a female or a graduate with honors.

3.
A point is chosen at random inside a circle with a diameter of 8 inches. Find the probability that the point is at least 1.5
inches away from the center of the circle.

4.
Five cards are drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Find the probability of getting three cards of the same suit and a
pair.

5.
In a certain high school, 23% of the senior class passed the University of the Philippines College Admission Test (UPCAT),
15% passed the Ateneo College Entrance Test (ACET), and 9% passed both entrance tests. A student is selected at random
a.
What is the probability that the student passed the UPCAT or ACET?
b.
What is the probability that the student passed neither the UPCAT nor the ACET?

B.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENT EVENTS
6.
Jun is the star player of the LSC basketball team. Statistics shows that he is an 83% free-throw shooter. During a very
tight game against the Masagana team, he was fouled as time ran out and the score was tied at 87 all. If he was given two
free throws, what is the probability that
a.
LSC won?
b.
The game went into overtime?

7.
An urn contains 12 transparent marbles and 9 colored marbles. One marble is drawn from the first urn and placed on the
second urn before another marble is drawn from the second urn. Find the
a.
The first draw is a transparent marble.
b.
The first draw is a colored marble.

8.
If the probability that Joyce will be alive in 50 years is 0.72 and her husband, Allan, will be alive in 50 years is 0.56, what is
the probability that neither will be alive in 50 years?

9.
A box contains 3 coins. One of the coins is a two-headed coin. The second coin is a fair coin, and the third coin is a biased
coin with the probability of heads equal to p. One of the coins is picked at random and tossed. What is the probability that
the coin picked is the biased coin and head shows up?

10.
In a certain class, the probability that Rikki will pass the finals is 0.75. If he pass, the probability that he cheated is 0.30.
If he cheated, the probability that he passed is 0.80. What is the probability that he does not cheat?