MSR Valuation and Market Update May12 TMC Webinar
MSR Valuation and Market Update May12 TMC Webinar
MSR Valuation and Market Update May12 TMC Webinar
Phoenix Capital, Inc. | 999 Eighteenth St Suite 1400 | Denver, CO 80202 | 303.892.7070
Phoenix Capital, Inc. | 999 Eighteenth St Suite 1400 | Denver, CO 80202 | 303.892.7070
3
With over 200 clients throughout the country, the Phoenix Family of Companies…
…continues to be the industry leading MSR advisory firm offering comprehensive solutions for its diverse
client base. Having expertly managed over $700 billion in successful MSR transactions since 2013
alone, Phoenix Capital maintains the deepest knowledge base in the MSR space. This real‐time market
intelligence is seamlessly integrated into Phoenix Analytics’ suite of services, including MSR valuations
for two‐thirds of the top 20 banks and servicers, currently over $30 trillion in annual UPB. Our
expertise extends to servicing audits and surveillance, REO disposition and whole
loan trading solutions.
As the number of companies investing in the Mortgage Servicing Asset (MSR) continues to grow, the
scrutiny and oversight from the auditors, regulators and guarantors continues to increase. The MSR
asset often quickly becomes the largest asset for most Independent Mortgage Bankers. For banks that
retain MSRs, it is one of the most volatile assets.
This presentation will focus on:
Review of MSR asset
Considerations for Owning the MSR Asset
Valuation Basics
MSR Market Update
Phoenix team and contact
Borrower
The value of servicing is the net present value of the servicing revenue components less expenses, adjusted for expected prepayment
speeds. The servicing value is expressed as either a multiple of the service fee or as a percentage of the UPB. For example for a FNMA
loan that has 25 bps of interest, its value can be expressed as a 4 multiple or 100 bps.
Mortgage Rate 4,75% Mortgage Rate 4.875%
MBS Security Rate (4.00%) MBS Security Rate (4.00%)
Guarantee Fee (0.50%) Guarantee Fee (0.50%)
Service Fee (0.25%) Service Fee (0.25%)
Remaining Interest 0 Remaining Interest .125%*
If the MSR asset was determined to have a fair value of 100 * During pooling process, the .125% can be sold to the agency,
bps (or a 4 multiple), it would be capitalized at 1% (100 bps) or capitalized as servicing making the servicing strip 37.5 bps.
of the unpaid principal balance.
Time Delq
(Months) UPB P&I Payment Avg T&I
Total Cash
Advanced (2)
Total Cash
Advanced (3) The remittance structure of the
3 175,000 835 200 3,105 3,105 servicing has a material impact on
6 175,000 835 200 6,210 3,705
9 175,000 835 200 9,315 4,305
12 175,000 835 200 12,420 4,905 the potential advances that are
15 175,000 835 200 15,525 5,505
18 175,000 835 200 18,630 6,105 made on the behalf of delinquent
24 175,000 835 200 24,840 7,305
(1) Assumes that T&I and P&I payments are made for each month of delinquency borrowers
(2) Assumes that loan is not bought out of the pool at 90 days of delinquency
(3) Assumes that loan is bought out of the pool at 90 days of delinquency
Ginnie Mae servicing is always
FNMA A/A
4% 30 Year Fixed Mortgage schedule/schedule remittance
Time Delq
(Months) UPB P&I Payment Avg T&I
Total Cash
Advanced
Sample of cash advanced is based
(1) Assumes that T&I payments are made for each month of delinquency
Minimal upfront investment in personnel and Per loan cost and the inability to get to a marginal
technology cost number
Ability to get servicing operations up and running Makes lower balance loan less profitable land
quickly changes break even point
Ability to make use of best practices of subservicer Additional cost of vendor oversight and in house
experiences and implied compliance with National servicing full time employees
Servicing Standards
A vendor is interacting with customers versus own
Ability to exit investment in servicing quickly due to personnel and therefore limits ability to control
lack of infrastructure borrower experience
Contracts vary, but often split late fees 50/50
Absolute ability to control the borrower experience Elevated initial (and ongoing) costs of technology
and interaction and personnel
Ability to make use of marginal costs once Significant investment in policies and procedures to
adequate servicing scale is achieved ensure compliance with National Servicing
Greater ability to control cross‐sell and refinancing
Standards
opportunities Headcount and operations make maintaining scale
Ability to earn 100% of fees associated with
critical and therefore less ability to sell servicing
without materially adversely impacting financial
subservicing including late fees and ancillary
ratios
Level 1 Asset
Transparent and readily available quoted market prices
EX: Equity Stocks
Level 2 Asset
Lack of readily available quoted market price (but may have market inputs)
Involves more complex modeling than Level 1 Asset
Ex: Interest Rate Swaps
Level 3 Asset
Illiquid Market
Involves complex modeling and reliance on assumptions and estimates that
management must support
Ex: MSRs
Two types of valuation approaches are common for MSRs: Static and Option Adjusted Spreads
(“OAS”). Each has its advantages and disadvantages:
Static Valuation OAS Valuation
Remains the most common technique Common among top 25 servicers, but not all have
adopted
Used by the majority of non top 25 servicers
Discount rate (OAS) varies over time
Discount rate remains constant, incorporates:
required rate of return Assumes interest rates are random and change over
time
premium for market liquidity
operational risk More complex and dynamic, requires significantly more
computer processing
Detailed support for changes in the valuation process Base Cost to Service ($21,299) ($25,250) ($3,951)
Deliquency/Foreclosure Costs ($537) ($757) ($220)
Total Cost to Service ($21,836) ($26,007) ($4,171)
Support for prepayment estimates used in determination of fair value
Net Income $224,043 $200,673 ($23,370)
*Phoenix model includes late fee income in ancillary income
** ** ** ** 2,000 480,280,995 240,140 3.528 0.2500 0 4,858,846 1.0117 4.0467 9.50 60 7 45 3.528 10.92 182 0.39 11.23
knowledge
6.8
11.31
Adv
of MSR pricing and
Agency Type Term NoteRange
PI
Days Ppay Days
Days
Lost
Avg
Esc IOE
Delq
30% Delq 60%
Delq
90%
D30 D60
FC% Cost Cost
D90
Cost
FC Float
Cost Earn %
Escrow Cost
Earn % %
activity is viewed as a
FNMA MBS FIXED
FNMA MBS FIXED
30 4.501 -> 4.750
30 4.751 -> 5.000
13
13
30
30
12
12
0.65
0.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100 200
100 200
500
500
750
750
0.47
0.47
0.81
0.81
0.97
0.97 key component in
validating the fair
FNMA MBS FIXED 30 5.001 -> 5.250 13 30 12 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 200 500 750 0.47 0.81 0.97
FNMA MBS FIXED 30 5.251 -> 5.500 13 30 12 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 200 500 750 0.47 0.81 0.97
FNMA MBS FIXED 30 5.501 -> 5.750 13 30 12 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 200 500 750 0.47 0.81 0.97
FNMA MBS FIXED
FNMA MBS FIXED
30 5.751 -> 6.000
30 <= 4.5
13
13
30
30
12
12
0.65
0.65
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
100 200
100 200
500
500
750
750
0.47
0.47
0.81
0.81
0.97
0.97
value of MSR
** ** ** ** 13 30 12 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 200 500 750 0.47 0.81 0.97
portfolios
In addition to tracking the assumptions, best practice is to develop a history of the ranges used
both internally and externally
The prepayment speed estimate is a key assumption used in the determination of the fair value for MSRs, therefore additional
scrutiny and documentation is required.
Industry recognized models such as Andrew Davidson (“AD‐CO”) or the AFT Model (owned by Black Knight)
A variety of sources now exist to obtain actual servicer level prepayment speeds. Best practices
include comparing company specific prepayments to the total cohort and a consistent subset of
peers.
Life CPRS
Product Vintage Company Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Total Cohort
FNMA 3.0 2015 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.8 2.6 3.2
2014 6.2 6.0 6.3 8.7 9.0 9.3 5.8 6.4
2013 5.4 5.2 5.5 7.9 8.2 8.5 4.6 5.1
FNMA 3.5 2015 3.7 4.8 3.8 3.8 4.8 3.8 4.8 4.2
2014 12.3 12.1 11.7 11.7 12.1 11.7 12.1 11.8
2013 8.7 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.9 7.7 7.9 7.7
FNMA 4.0 2015 6.0 6.2 5.9 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.6 5.4
2014 14.9 15.1 14.8 12.4 12.1 11.8 11.5 14.4
2013 15.0 15.2 14.9 12.5 12.2 11.9 11.6 14.1
The implementation and timing of new assumptions in the official valuation must be considered:
For entities that hedge the MSR asset, the change in assumptions may impact the base value, but more importantly the
shock profile
Providing adequate time to test and understand the profile changes is critical
The interplay of assumption changes as rates move and more time to test is better to understand the impact (both
expected and unexpected)
Changing the assumptions can have a ripple impact on the production side of the business as the SRP premiums are likely
impacted
Providing adequate time to implement changes to the SRP helps make the transition more seamless
Mortgage servicing rights (MSRs) were actively Servicing transaction market was active in
traded between banks both bulk and flow through mid 2008
Only purchased MSRs were recognized
The 1990s
Servicing was viewed as “core product” by
on the balance sheet as an asset banks
MSR sale transactions occurred
between banks to recognize stored
Large bank aggregators became more and
more dominant buyers
value (gain)
Aggregators attempted to force
Originated MSRs became an on balance sheet sellers into a correspondent
asset during the mid 1990’s relationship
No longer needed to sell MSRs to Fair value accounting option for MSRs was
The 2000s
recognize MSR gains
implemented
Buyers of MSRs were typically banks
Refinance boom of 2002/2003 followed by
Emergence of the flow / co‐issue market (versus several years of “product innovation”
traditional bulk transactions)
Financial crisis struck in late 2008
Very quiet period for MSR transactions with very MSR market has returned with emergence
few MSR trades of new buyers
through first half
MSR portfolios that were “sold” occurred at Private equity funded buyers dominate the
Late 2008
of 2012
distressed prices market
Flow values dipped below a 3 multiple of Significant demand for new production
servicing fee for new Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac
30 year fixed rate production
Bulk market for recent originations or legacy
servicing is active
Internal focus by servicers on “legacy servicing
Originators that traditionally delivered to
issues”
the aggregators, who are now delivering to
Second half of
2012 through
Aggregators backed away from broker and today the agencies, have become either investors
correspondent production channels in servicing or flow sellers of servicing
the
Non banks are
fastest growing
servicers year over year
Due to impact of
legacy/delinquent servicing
and BASEL III concerns, many
reduced
banks have
greatly their MSR
portfolios
Servicing can be sold either on a bulk or flow basis. Each transaction type comes with a differetn set of operational and
interest rate risks that must be understood by management
Monthly sales reduce interest rate risk; there is a lag, but Known characteristics are simpler to price
production is following current coupon
Buyer has ability to gain scale immediately
Buyer can protect against interest rate movements in
Seller can raise significant cash at one time
the pricing grid
Seller can price in expected MSR price
Buyer can more easily plan for a one time cash outlay
Sellers avoid having to sell large portfolios for cash in
Seller can arbitrage in times of rising interest rates
falling interest rate environments Transaction structure is simpler for both sides
Significant upfront effort and expense fosters long‐term Seller can strategically dispose of particular segments of a
relationships portfolio if a suitable buyer can be found (ie, particular states
Requires small initial cash outlay for buyer
or products, delinquent loans, etc)
Avoids boarding and de‐boarding fees
2015 reflected a balanced market between buyer demand and seller supply
2016 market favors buyers as demand wanes while supply remains steady
Several PE buyers have retrenched pricing and/or exited/paused acquisitions
Interest rate risk and market volatility along with subdues capital raising prospects among PE firms have decreased buyer
appetite
GNMA liquidity declined sharply in the second half of 2015 and remains challenging
Liquidity is present, but overall deal success rate continues to decline from 2014/15 levels
Realistic pricing expectations are imperative
Bid/ask spreads have widened to the 5‐10bp range leading to many failed trades
Generally only mortgage bankers needing cash are completing deals in today’s market
Flow buyers paying more attention to current relationships and less aggressive bidding new deals
Buyers revisiting returns on 2015 deliveries and adjusting models and grids to better match expectations going
forward
MSR financing continues to create an alternative source of generating cash (vs an outright sale)
Some (large )sellers have had success selling the MSR but subserving for the buyer to retain economies of scale on their
platform; achieving sale treatment is a hurdle
Excess Servicing Fee Transactions (IO Strip Sale) – selling a portion of the 25bps servicing strip to an investor
Brett H. Schaffer, President of Phoenix Capital, Inc. and Phoenix Analytic Dean H. DeMeritte, Executive Vice President of Phoenix Capital, Inc. and
Services, Inc., has over 30 years of mortgage banking experience including Phoenix Analytic Services, Inc., has over 30 years in the mortgage banking
over 25 years in the mortgage servicing brokerage industry. During this industry and has been with Phoenix for over fifteen years. His responsibilities
period, Brett has managed several hundred bulk and flow servicing at Phoenix include management of the Transaction Advisory and Transaction
transactions amounting to over a trillion dollars in principal balance. Management Teams, as well as managing all strategic and high level analytics
performed, including 3rd party MTM and valuing servicing rights for
Brett co‐founded Phoenix Capital, Inc. and Phoenix Analytic Services, Inc. and sales/acquisitions.
has been instrumental in developing both companies into top‐tier brokerage,
analytic, and consulting firms. Brett has developed a solid and long‐term Prior to Phoenix, he was with Fleet Mortgage as Vice President of Portfolio
client base with his reputation for maintaining his clients’ objectives first and Transactions. He has also worked at Harbor Financial Mortgage Corp., Banc
emphasizing a level‐headed approach to negotiating transactions while One Mortgage, Banc Plus Mortgage, Chemical Mortgage and J.I. Kislak
pushing Phoenix clients to deal practically with market realities in managing Mortgage. His expertise includes buying and selling mortgage servicing
the mortgage servicing right (MSR) asset. Prior to co‐founding Phoenix rights, contract negotiations, company acquisitions, strategic planning,
Capital, Inc., Brett spent four years with United Financial, Inc. and five years finance and accounting. In addition, he was a principal with a mortgage
with John S. Hopkins, Inc., both servicing brokerage firms. production company.
Brett began his career in Secondary Marketing with Prudential Home Dean has a B.S. in marketing from the University of Maryland and has an
Mortgage in 1985 after graduating from the University of Virginia. MBA with a concentration in Finance from Duke University.
Stephen Fleming, Senior Vice President, Phoenix Capital, Inc.
Stephen B. Fleming, Senior Vice President, joined the Phoenix team in 2011 and helps lead the strategic business development, client
management and industry relations groups. Stephen’s responsibilities span bulk and flow servicing transactions, MSR analytics including best
execution engagements, and M&A activity. Prior to joining Phoenix, Stephen was a Senior Credit Trader at Fannie Mae in Washington DC, working
on the both the bulk and flow Pricing Strategy teams. He began his career at JP Morgan Chase as an Assistant Vice President. Stephen is a
frequent industry speaker, including various MBA Conferences and the Fannie Mae Lender Forums. In addition to being a Georgetown University
MBA honors graduate, Stephen holds a Finance and Accounting Certification from UPenn's Wharton School of Business and a BA degree in
Mathematics and Economics from the College of the Holy Cross.
Jeffrey S. Boyd, Senior Vice President, leads the day‐to‐day management of Phoenix Analytic Services, Inc. (PAS) and has been with PAS for over
fourteen years. In addition to the training and oversight of all PAS staff, Jeff is directly involved with all analytic‐related engagements. His primary
responsibilities include servicing portfolio valuations (mark‐to‐markets), acquisition analyses, servicing released premium (SRP) schedule
development, economic hold/sell analysis, FASB 140 accounting and impairment outsourcing services and the modeling of bulk and flow servicing
transactions. Prior to joining Phoenix, he worked with Commercial Federal. He holds a BS in Finance from the University of Colorado.
Kathryn M. Ferriman, Vice President, Phoenix Analytics Services, Inc.
Kathryn M. Ferriman, Vice President of Phoenix Analytic Services, Inc., joined PAS in 2007. Her primary responsibilities include the management
and training of PAS analysts, as well as overseeing MSR portfolio valuation and MSR aAccounting outsourcing services. She is also actively involved
in the valuation of bulk transactions. Kathryn has a B.S.B.A. in International Business and an M.A. with a concentration in Statistics, both from the
University of Denver.
John Burrnett, President of Phoenix Collateral Advisors, has 20 years of mortgage banking and servicing experience. During the period, John has
overseen the servicing management of hundreds of thousands of loans, and more than ten thousand real estate liquidations. John has worked
closely with Wall Street Investment firms and GSEs to execute loan retention and liquidation strategies. Throughout John’s career, he has focused
on providing clients with asset level solutions rather than task management metrics. Prior to joining the Phoenix Family of Companies, John held
executive and senior leadership positions with Integrated Asset Services, Statebridge Company, IBM/Seterus and Wilshire Credit
Corporation/Merrill Lynch.
Don’t hesitate to contact us!
Jeff Boyd: 303‐539‐7229 Erin Gilbride: 303‐539‐7241
jboyd@phnxcap.com egilbride@phnxcap.com