Conceptual

Models
System Simulation
LN 2 A

M S Prasad

This lecture note is based on Text book and open literature and is suitable for
Post Grad students of Simulation & Modelling.
Conceptual Model : LN – 2A

Conceptual modelling is almost certainly the most important aspect of the

simulation and modelling process . The model design impacts all aspects of the
study, in particular the data requirements, the speed with which the model can
be developed, the validity of the model, the speed of experimentation and the
confidence that is placed in the model results.

It is often said of simulation studies that 50% of the benefit is obtained just from
the development of the conceptual model. The modeller needs to develop a
thorough understanding of the System Operations in order to design an
appropriate model. In doing so, we ask questions and seek information that
often have not previously been considered. Indeed, Shannon (1975)goes so far as
to say that effective conceptual modelling may lead to the identification of a
suitable solution without the need for any further simulation work .

The definition of a conceptual model is understood by distinguishing between

four terms:
the real system is that which the simulation model is to represent. The
experimental frame is the limited set of circumstances under which the real
system has been observed, in other words, there is not a complete understanding
of the real system. The base model is capable of accounting for the complete
behaviour of the real system.

The conceptual model is a simplified representation of the real system. A more

descriptive definition of a conceptual model is as follows:

The conceptual model is a non-software specific description of the simulation

model that is to be developed, describing the objectives, inputs, outputs, content,
assumptions and simplifications of the model.

There are two key features of this definition. First, it specifically identifies the
independence of the conceptual model from the software in which the simulation
is to be developed

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The second feature is that the definition outlines the key components of the
conceptual model, which are as follows:

 Objectives: the purpose of the model and modelling project.

 Inputs: those elements of the model that can be altered to effect an
improvement in, or Better understanding of, the real world; otherwise
known as the experimental factors.
 Outputs: report the results from simulation runs.
 Content: the components that are represented in the model and their
interconnections.
 Assumptions made either when there are uncertainties or beliefs about the
real world being modelled.
 Simplifications incorporated in the model to enable more rapid model
development and use
Based on above we can deduce that there are four main requirements of a
conceptual model: Validity, Credibility, Utility and Feasibility.

Validity
A valid model is one that is sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand.
However, since the notion of accuracy is of little meaning for a model that has no
numeric output, conceptual model validity might be defined more precisely as:

A perception, on behalf of the modeller, that the conceptual model will lead
to a computer model that is sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand.

Credibility is similar to validity, but is taken from the perspective of the clients
rather than the modeller. The credibility of the conceptual model is therefore
defined as:
A perception, on behalf of the clients, that the conceptual model will lead to
a computer model that is sufficiently accurate for the purpose at hand
The third concept, utility, is defined as:
A perception, on behalf of the modeller and the clients, that the conceptual
model will lead to a computer model that is useful as an aid to decision-
making within the specified context

The final requirement, feasibility, is defined as follows:

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 A perception, on behalf of the modeller and the clients, that the conceptual
model can be developed into a computer model.

Keep the Model Simple

Overarching all of the requirements described above is the need to avoid the
development of an over-complex model. In general the aim should be to: keep the
model as simple as possible to meet the objectives of the simulation study.
Simple models have a number of advantages.
They can be developed faster, are more flexible, require less data, run faster, and
it is easier to interpret the results since the structure of the model is better
understood.
Keeping models simple is at the heart of good modelling practice. This does not
mean that complex models should never be developed, they are sometimes
necessary to achieve the objectives of the study.

The study shows that the model accuracy gained from increasing levels of
complexity (scope and level of detail). It shows a typical 80/20 rule, that is, 80% of
the accuracy is gained from only 20% of the complexity (point x).
It is impossible to create a model that is 100% accurate, since it is not possible
to capture every aspect of the real world in a model. Indeed, it is argued that
increasing the complexity too far may lead to a less accurate model, since the
data and information are not available to support the detail being modelled.

Model Specification

Depending on the nature of the project and the relationship between the clients
and modeller, the specification should describe the majority, if not all, of the
following:
 Background to the problem situation .
 Objectives of the simulation study .
 Expected benefits .
 The conceptual model: inputs, outputs, content (scope and level of detail),
assumptions and simplifications
 Experimentation: scenarios to be considered

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  Data requirements: data required, when required, responsibility for
collection
 Time and milestones .
 Estimated cost .

The simulation process is iterative nature. Because the process is iterative, it

should not be expected that once model coding commences the specification
remains unchanged.
There are four main reasons for the change in specification during a simulation
study:
 Omissions in the original specification.
 Changes in the real world.
 An increased understanding of simulation on behalf of the clients.
 The identification of new problems through the development and use of
the simulation model.

Effective conceptual modelling, communication and feedback should limit the

first cause of change. Changes to the real world inevitably happen, for instance, a
change to the design of a manufacturing system that may be on a small scale (e.g.
an additional machine) or on a larger scale (e.g. a complete redesign). The last
two reasons for change are both positive aspects of simulation modelling and
should be encouraged.

Representing the conceptual model

As part of the project specification it is important to have a means for

representing the content of the conceptual model. There are four main methods
of representation in common use:

 Component list
 Process flow diagram
 Logic flow diagram
 Activity cycle diagram

There are also some other methods of conceptual model representation, for
instance, Petri nets, event graphs and condition specification, UML (the unified

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modeling language) is currently of interest as a means for representing a
conceptual model

Component list
This provides a list of the components in the model with some description of the
detail included for each

Process flow diagram (process map)

In this approach the conceptual model is represented as a process flow or process
map, showing each component of the system in a sequence and including some
description ofthe model detail. A process might be shown as a box and a queue as
a circle.

Logic flow diagram

Logic flow diagrams use standard flow diagram symbols to represent the logic of
the model rather than the process flow. The process flow is not always obvious,
however, and these diagrams can quickly become large, complex and
Cumbersome for models of any reasonable scale.

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Activity cycle diagram

Activity cycle diagrams are used as a specific means for representing discrete-
event simulation models .Circles represent dead states, where an item waits for
something to happen. Active states, represented by rectangles, are where an item
is acted upon. This normally entails a time to process the item before passing it on
to the next state. In general, active and dead states
alternate.

Activity cycle diagrams sit somewhere between process flow diagrams and logic
flow diagrams in that they describe, in part, the logic of a model while also giving
a visual representation.

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Frame Work for developing the Conceptual Model

Figure below provides an outline of a framework for conceptual modelling. The

purpose of this framework is to provide a modeller with an understanding of how
to develop a conceptual model.

The framework consists of four key elements:

 Develop an understanding of the problem situation
 Determine the modelling objectives
 Design the conceptual model: inputs and outputs
 Design the conceptual model: the model content

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Starting with an understanding of the problem situation, a set of modelling
objectives are determined. These objectives then drive the derivation of the
conceptual model, first by defining the inputs and outputs, and then by defining
the content of the model itself .

Determining the modelling objectives

The modelling objectives are central to the modelling process. They are the
means by which the nature of the model is determined, the reference point for
model validation, the guide for experimentation, and one of the metrics by which
the success of the study is judged.
In forming the objectives, a useful question to ask is ‘‘by the end of this study
what do we hope to achieve?’’

Beyond this, three aspects should be considered. First, what is it that

the clients wish to achieve?

Secondly, what level of performance is required? To state that the objective is to

increase throughput is insufficient. By how much should the throughput be
increased.
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Finally, what constraints must the clients (or modeller) work within? Often there
is a limited budget or a limited number of approaches available for achieving the
objectives.
Methods of Model Simplification

Apart from having a framework for conceptual modelling, it is also useful for the
modeller to have some methods of model simplification at his/her disposal. The
main purpose of simplification is to increase the utility of a model while not
significantly affecting its validity or credibility The main purpose of simplification
is to increase the utility of a model while not significantly affecting its validity or
credibility.

Aggregation of model components

Aggregation of model components provides a means for reducing the level of

detail. Two specific approaches are : black-box modelling and grouping entities.
Black-box modelling
In black-box modelling a section of an operation is represented as a time
delay. Model entities that represent parts, people, information and such
like enter the black-box and leave at some later time. This approach can be
used for modelling anything from a group of machines or service desks to a
complete factory or service operation.

Grouping entities
Instead of modelling individual items as they move through a system, a
simulation entity can represent a group of items.

Excluding components and details

On occasions it is not necessary to include some components in a
simulation because their omission has little effect on the accuracy of the
model. This is a form of scope reduction.

Replacing components with random variables

Rather than model a component or group of components in detail it may be
possible to represent them as a set of random variables, sampled from
some distributions

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 Splitting models
Rather than build one large model, it can be beneficial to split the model
into two or more parts. A simple way of achieving this is to split the models
such that the output of one sub-model (model A) is the input to another
(model B), The advantage of splitting models is that the individual models
run faster. It is also quite probable that a single run of all the sub-models is
quicker than one run of a combined model.

Conceptual modelling is almost certainly the most important aspect of a

simulation study. It is vital that an appropriate model is designed in order for the
rest of the simulation study to succeed. Unfortunately, conceptual modelling is
also the least understood aspect of simulation modelling.

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