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    Discipline: "Managerial decision-making methods" Course: 2 Group: М-91an Teacher: Denys Smolennikov Deadline: 24.12.2020

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    София Калюжная
    This document outlines an assignment for a research paper and problem solving on managerial decision-making methods. It provides 16 variants for the research paper task and parameters for a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The problem involves deciding between building a large or small factory based on costs and probabilities of demand levels over several years. Students must analyze the problem, build a decision tree, and identify the most effective solution.

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    Discipline: "Managerial decision-making methods" Course: 2 Group: М-91an Teacher: Denys Smolennikov Deadline: 24.12.2020

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    София Калюжная
    21 views4 pages
    This document outlines an assignment for a research paper and problem solving on managerial decision-making methods. It provides 16 variants for the research paper task and parameters for a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The problem involves deciding between building a large or small factory based on costs and probabilities of demand levels over several years. Students must analyze the problem, build a decision tree, and identify the most effective solution.

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    This document outlines an assignment for a research paper and problem solving on managerial decision-making methods. It provides 16 variants for the research paper task and parameters for a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The problem involves deciding between building a large or small factory based on costs and probabilities of demand levels over several years. Students must analyze the problem, build a decision tree, and identify the most effective solution.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    21 views4 pages

    Discipline: "Managerial decision-making methods" Course: 2 Group: М-91an Teacher: Denys Smolennikov Deadline: 24.12.2020

    Uploaded by

    София Калюжная
    This document outlines an assignment for a research paper and problem solving on managerial decision-making methods. It provides 16 variants for the research paper task and parameters for a multi-criteria decision-making problem. The problem involves deciding between building a large or small factory based on costs and probabilities of demand levels over several years. Students must analyze the problem, build a decision tree, and identify the most effective solution.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 4

    1

    Assignment
    Research Paper and Problem Solving

    Discipline: "Managerial decision-making methods"


    Course: 2
    Group: М-91an
    Teacher: Denys Smolennikov
    Deadline: 24.12.2020
    Maximum points – 10.

    Task 1 (theoretical). The volume of the task – 10-15 pages (A4, size 14).
    Variant Task
    1 The role of the human factor in decision-making
    2 Decision-making as a creative process
    3 Psychological aspects of decision making
    4 Evaluating the effectiveness of decisions
    5 Behavioral decision-making
    6 Methods of group decision making
    7 The most popular methods of decision making
    8 Decision-making in administrative systems: tools and problems
    9 Decision-making in the public service
    10 Improving the quality of management decisions
    11 Computer methods of managerial decision making
    12 Prominent scientists and their work in the theory of managerial decision making
    13 The monitoring system for implementing the administrative decision
    14 Management decisions under time pressure
    15 Factor analysis in making managerial decisions
    16 Problems of decision-making in the group

    Task2 (practical). Solve problem by analyzing multi-hierarchy.


    Director must decide whom to choose as head of marketing at the enterprise.
    There are two candidates to choose and criteria: A – the makings of a leader; B
    – level of education and experience; C – capacity for administrative work; D –
    charisma. The degree of importance of a criterion with respect to the other is
    determined: R – the ratio between the criteria (preference of one or the other),
    A – rank advantage of the criterion. The advantage of a candidate for each of
    the criteria is also defined.
    АіВ АіС АіD ВіС ВіD CіD
    Variant
    R A R A R A R A R A R A
    1 = 1 < 5 > 3 > 2 < 3 > 2
    2 > 3 < 6 > 3 > 4 < 3 > 2
    3 > 3 < 7 > 3 > 2 < 3 > 2
    4 = 1 < 5 > 3 < 4 > 2 > 3
    2
    5 > 3 < 4 > 3 < 2 > 4 > 3
    6 > 4 < 3 > 3 < 3 > 3 > 3
    7 > 5 < 2 > 2 > 2 < 2 > 2
    8 = 1 < 5 > 5 < 2 > 1 > 3
    9 < 2 > 3 < 3 > 3 < 2 > 3
    10 < 3 > 7 < 4 > 2 < 3 > 2
    11 = 1 > 5 < 2 > 4 < 3 > 2
    12 < 2 > 2 < 2 > 2 < 3 > 2
    13 > 3 < 3 > 2 < 4 > 2 > 3
    14 > 5 < 6 > 3 < 2 > 4 > 3
    15 > 4 < 6 > 4 < 3 > 3 > 3
    16 > 5 < 7 > 4 < 2 > 4 > 3

    By criterion A By criterion B By criterion C By criterion D


    Variant
    R A R A R A R A
    1 1=2 1 1<2 5 1<2 6 1<2 7
    2 1>2 4 1>2 5 1>2 7 1>2 8
    3 1<2 8 1<2 6 1<2 8 1>2 9
    4 1=2 1 1>2 5 1>2 9 1<2 2
    5 1>2 4 1<2 8 1<2 2 1<2 3
    6 1>2 5 1>2 9 1>2 3 1>2 4
    7 1>2 7 1>2 5 1>2 3 1>2 5
    8 1>2 6 1<2 3 1<2 4 1<2 2
    9 1>2 2 1<2 4 1>2 5 1<2 6
    10 1>2 4 1>2 5 1<2 6 1<2 7
    11 1=2 1 1<2 6 1>2 5 1>2 8
    12 1<2 2 1>2 7 1<2 8 1>2 9
    13 1>2 3 1<2 8 1>2 9 1<2 2
    14 1>2 4 1>2 9 1<2 2 1<2 3
    15 1<2 5 1<2 2 1>2 3 1>2 4
    16 1>2 6 1<2 7 1<2 4 1<2 2

    Task 3 (practical). The company is considering building the plant. There are
    three options.
    A. Build a large factory (costs B1, thousands of dollars). This option is
    available in great demand (annual income of D1, thousands of dollars over the
    next n years) with probability P1 and low demand (annual losses D2, thousands
    of dollars).
    B. Build a small plant (costs B2, thousands of dollars). It is possible great
    demand (annual income of D3, thousands of dollars over the next 5 years) with
    probability P2 and low demand (annual losses D4, thousands of dollars).
    C. Defer building of the plant for one year to collect additional information.
    This information may be positive or negative with probability P3 and P4. In
    3
    case of positive information, we can build factories on a rate above and
    probabilities of great demand will be P5 and P6 for large and small plant.
    Incomes for the next (n-1) years will be the same. In the case of negative
    information, the company will not build factories. All calculations are
    expressed in current prices. Draw a decision tree. Identify the most effective
    sequence of actions based on expected revenues. What is the expected value
    estimation of the best solution?
    Variant В1 В2 D1 D2 D3 D4 n P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6
    1 400 300 220 80 180 55 5 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,8
    2 500 300 280 80 170 45 4 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,8
    3 600 500 250 90 160 65 5 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,8
    4 700 400 240 100 150 55 4 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,8
    5 800 200 230 120 190 75 5 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,8
    6 400 300 220 80 180 55 4 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,8
    7 500 250 280 80 170 45 5 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,9
    8 600 500 250 90 160 65 4 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    9 700 200 230 100 150 55 4 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,8
    10 800 300 220 120 190 75 4 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,8
    11 400 300 280 80 180 55 3 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    12 500 100 250 80 170 45 3 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    13 600 400 240 90 160 65 3 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    14 700 200 230 100 150 55 3 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    15 400 300 220 120 190 75 3 0,8 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,9 0,9
    16 500 300 220 80 180 55 4 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,3 0,8 0,8
    4
    Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine
    Sumy State University
    Department of Management

    Assignment
    Research Paper and Problem Solving
    Managerial Decision-Making Methods

    Title of Assignment: «_________________________________________»


    Variant: _____

    Student: _____________________ Group: M-91an

    Lecturer’s name: Denys Smolennikov

    Declaration of ownership: I declare that the attached work is entirely my own and that all sources have
    been acknowledged ____________
    signature

    Sumy 2020

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