Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Moving Average Convergence Divergence
and Limitations
Put most of your emotional energy into the creation of your indicators, rather than
trying to guess the market, and you'll probably come out ahead.
~Gerald Appel
Invented by Gerald Appel in 1977, MACD is one of the most popular indicators used in
analysis of stock prices. The analysis is made using time frames for diverse sets of
parameters chosen by the user. It is one of the few indicators that are easy to understand
and interpret, and are reasonably simple to maintain.
Meaning of MACD
Classification
Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) deals with the computation of the difference
between two moving averages of price divided by the longer moving average value
Absolute Price Oscillator (APO) deals with the actual price of moving averages
rather than percentages changes.
The Formula for Moving Average Convergence/Divergence
MACD can be calculated by the difference of 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA i.e.
A type of Moving Average (MA) known as Exponential Moving Average (EMA) places a
greater weight and significance on the most recent data points and also referred as
Exponential Weighted Moving Average which reacts more significantly than Simple
Moving Average (SMA) to recent price changes applying equal weightage to all
observation in the period.
Whenever the 12-period EMA is above the 26-period EMA the MACD has the positive
value and when the 26-period EMA is above the 12-period EMA the MACD has the
negative value. The indication that the distance between the two Exponential Moving
Averages is growing is when the more distant the MACD is above or below its baseline.
MACD can be displayed with a graph of distance between the MACD and its signal line
which is done by a histogram. The Histogram will be above the MACD’s baseline , If the
MACD is above the signal line and it will be below the MACD’s baseline , If the Moving
Average Convergence Divergence is below its signal line. For identification of when
bullish or bearish momentum is high, Traders use the MACD’s histogram.
Limitations of MACD
The possible problem with divergence detected is that is can produce a false positive i.e.
it can sometimes detect reversal when it doesn't take place. On a clear note when the
price of an asset moves sideways like as in triangle pattern following a trend or range
“False Positive” divergence occurs. The MACD is pulled away from its prior extremes
and attract towards the zero lines even in the absence of a true reversal when there is
slow down in the momentum – slow trending movement or sideways movement of the
price. Also divergence predicts not enough real price reversal and too many reversals
that don’t occur.
The MACD indicator helps traders to easily and quickly identify short term direction of
trends. It also minimizes the subjectivity in trading through clear Transaction signals.
This relatively simpler indicator can be readily incorporated to a short term trading
plan.
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