FACULTY OF ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCE AND POLICY STUDIES

DIPLOMA IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS (ECO120)

CASE STUDY

INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN CANADA

PREPARED BY:

GROUP: 7 (AM1103A3)

STUDENT NAME STUDENT ID

AUDRALYN PASKALIS 2018259676

NUR ANEESA FARHANA LATAHANG 2018409676

FLORIEZABETH JOANNY OPENG 2018410034

KRYSMAJOY LOSTEK 2018276028

PREPARED FOR:
MADAM HERNIZA

DATE OF SUBMISSION:
11nd DECEMBER 2019

Contents
1.0 INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................3

2.0 TAX REVENUE...................................................................................................................5

2.1 TAX-to-GDP ratio over time............................................................................................5

3.0 FISCAL POLICY.................................................................................................................6

3.1 Canada - Fiscal Balance....................................................................................................6

3.2 Fiscal Policy in Canada..................................................................................................6-7

4.0 MONETARY POLICY........................................................................................................8

4.1 Monetary Policy in Canada...............................................................................................8

4.1.1 What are the goals of monetary policy?.....................................................................8

4.1.2 What are the tools of monetary policy?......................................................................8

4.1.4 Monetary Policy Rules..........................................................................................9-10

5.0 INFLATION RATES....................................................................................................11-12

6.0 UNEMPLOYEMENT RATES......................................................................................13-14

7.0 CONCLUSION...................................................................................................................15

REFERENCES....................................................................................................................16-17

1.0 INTRODUCTION

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Canada system economy is capitalism where a highly developed monopoly capitalist
state. Out of and alongside the cut-throat competition of early capitalism, monopolies began
to emerge. On 17th century , the early Canadian colonies thrived under a simple economic
system known as the fur trade where hunters gathered and sold animal skins under the
employment of large fur corporations. But on th industrial revolution, Canada introduced all
sorts of exciting new machines to the world, and saw Canadians begin to develop a
robust manufacturing sector, with giant factories able to transform raw natural resources into
useful high-tech things like paper, cloth, steel, chemicals, and automobiles, while dams and
derricks enabled the production of new commodities like hydroelectricity, oil, and natural
gas. Since the Second World War, Canada has experienced massive growth in its
manufacturing, mining and services, propelling the economy from being a largely agricultural
one to becoming one of the most highly industrialised and urbanised economies in the world.
With that, Canada is the develop country in the world.

Apart from having similar patterns of production and living standards, Canada also
adopts a market oriented economic system combines private enterprise with government
regulation. The government can interfere by using many different tools like price floors and
ceilings, regulation, anti-trust laws, taxes, tariffs, and quotas. Price Floor will enable the
government to sets a minimum price in the market. A great example of this is in the labour
market with the minimum wage. A price floor often creates a surplus. Price Ceiling is also
enable the government sets a maximum price in the market. The government can set
regulations of any kind in any industry. An example would be the government regulation that
states seatbelts and airbags are mandatory in the automobile industry. Regulation often
creates new markets that are then ruled by capitalism. Canada government, while seemingly
independent of specific corporate interests, has become predominantly the political
instrument of a small group comprising the top monopoly capitalists for exercising control
over the rest of society. Finance capital uses the state to provide orders, capital and subsidies,
and to secure foreign markets and investments. The state is also used to redistribute income
and wealth in favour of monopoly interests through the tax system, and through legislation to
drive down wages and weaken the trade union movement.

Besides, they have crafted what many observers consider to be a model multicultural
society, welcoming immigrant populations from every other continent. In addition, Canada
harbours and exports a wealth of natural resources and intellectual capital equaled by few
other countries. For example, logging and oil industries, is one of the most important
elements to the economy. Canada’s manufacturing industry is main industries of the country
such as the automobile industry, with low labour costs and a comprehensive healthcare and
social security system attracting major automobile companies from the US and Japan to set
up manufacturing facilities in Canada. The economic growth in Canada has been so effective
and consistent that today it is the 9th largest economy in the world based on GDP.

Other than that, Canada’s second main industries is agricultural products, Canada is
one of the world's largest suppliers of agricultural products – they lead the world in lentils,
linseed, mustard seed and peas and among the top ten producers of barley, blueberries,

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cranberries, mixed grain, oats, rapeseed, pork, wheat, turkey, raspberries, rye, soybeans, beef,
mushrooms, chick-peas and maize, so the Canada always needs the skills, talents and
enthusiasm of newcomers to continue to grow and contribute to its economy. Although the
Canadian agriculture industry has benefited from government subsidies and supports, Canada
has been an advocate of reducing market subsidies from the WTO. In 2011, Canada used
only US$848.2 million of its US$4.3 billion subsidy allowance granted by the WTO.
However, like all advanced countries, Canada’s economy is largely dominated by services
such as Canada's major banks for example managed to emerge from the global financial crisis
to be among the strongest in the world, thanks to the financial industry’s tradition of
conservative lending practices and strong capitalization. Canada’s finance and banking
industries remain among the fastest growing in the world and have potential for even further
growth. Other than that, There are many different types of taxes sales, excise, revenue, profit,
property, etc. We all pay sales tax every time we purchase something. State and local
governments determine the sales tax percent. An excise tax is a tax on each unit sold and the
revenue is collected from the producer.

Last but not least, we choose Canada country because Canada’s economic
competitiveness has been sustained by the solid institutional foundations of an open-market
system and develop country. The independent judiciary provides strong protection of
property rights, and upholds the rule of law. In addition to that, the economy is open to global
commerce and supported by a high degree of regulatory efficiency. Besides, the
government’s policy has focused towards income redistribution through adjustments in
taxation and increased spending. Canada has a reputation for clean government. Its judicial
system has an impeccable record of independence and transparency, and cases of corruption
are prosecuted vigorously. So we need to follow their stratgey to expand our economy then
the economy will more stable.

2.0 TAX REVENUE

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 Figure 1

2.1 TAX-to-GDP ratio over time.

The OECD’s annual Revenue Statistics report found that the tax-to-GDP ratio in Canada
increased by 0.2 percentage points from 32.8% in 2017 to 33.0% in 2018. The corresponding
figure for the OECD average was a slight increase of 0.1 percentage point from 34.2% to
34.3% over the same period. The tax-to-GDP ratio in Canada has decreased from 34.7% in
2000 to 33.0% in 2018. Over the same period, the OECD average in 2018 was slightly above
that in 2000 (34.3% compared with 33.8%). During that period the highest tax-to-GDP ratio
in Canada was 34.7% in 2000, with the lowest being 30.8% in 2011.

3.0 FISCAL POLICY

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Fiscal policy is when the government uses taxing, spending as well as borrowing to grow the
economy of the country while achieving other goals such as education and health care
purposes. The government uses fiscal policy when there is insufficient people who are
working or when the production is too slow. This is done to push the economy back to its
potential.

3.1 Canada – Fiscal Balance

Canada’s ends 2018-2019 fiscal year with narrower budget deficit than forecast.
Canada ended the fiscal year with a $14.0 billion deficit on March 31 which is $900 million
lower than the amount the government have projected (Reuters, 2019). A deficit of $14.9
billion is estimated by the Canadian government in its March budget (Reuters, 2019). In the
year of 2017-2018, Canada had a deficit with the amount of $19.0 billion (Reuters, 2019).
The total federal debt at the end of 2018-2019 fiscal year is at $685.5 billion compared to the
previous year which is $671.3 billion (Reuters, 2019). However, in the previous year
Canada’s federal debt-to-GDP decrease from 31.3% to 30.9% (Reuters, 2019). Canada’s
revenue increased $21.0 billion or 6.7% from the year before. The factor that primarily driven
to these increase in revenues in all streams are by income tax revenues and other taxes and
duties (Reuters,2019).

On the other hand, expenses were up with the amount of $16.0 billion or 4.8%
compared to the year 2017-2018 (Reuters, 2019). Program expenses increased by $14.6
billion or 4.7% compared to the year before. The public debt charges was increased by $1.4
billion or 6.3% from the previous year and accounted for 6.7% of expenses in 2018-2019
(Reuters, 2019). The Canadian government set its objective in 2008 to reduce the federal
debt-to-GDP ratio down by 20% in the year 2020 (The Canadian Encyclopedia, 2015). The
ratio have climbed to 33.9% in the year 2010-2011(The Canadian Encyclopedia, 2015).

3.2 Fiscal Policy in Canada

In the beginning of 1990s, Canada faced chronic fiscal deficits as well as growing
debt ratios. The continuous rise in the public debt have increased the risk premium on
Canadian bonds, which pushing up the interest rates as well as the the cost of servicing the
dept (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004). This has created a debt spiral in which the
increasing debt interest payment make the situations worse in fiscal deficits and raised debt
further. At that time, private saving was not sufficient to support private productive
investments and chronic fiscal deficits (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004). During that
time, the federal and provincial levels in Canada becoming increasingly clear in the
importance of restoring sound public finances. Several fiscal measurement have been taken to
restore a sound fiscal balance. The Federal Spending Control Act (1991) have successfully
adopted by the Federal Government which have set limits on spending programs from 1991-
1992 to 1995-1996 (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004).

In 1995, a new framework have been adopted by the fiscal authority which is based
on two principles to meet the medium-term fiscal balance and to continually decrease debt

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ratio. The first one is a fiscal program that is based on explicit prudent forecasts of economic
growth. This is to avoid any fiscal decisions that could be too sensitive on predictions about
the economic future growth (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004). Second, a short-term
(two-year) rolling deficits using medium term fiscal balance as the final objectives have been
adopted by the government to enable immediate implementation of a strict action on the
economy (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004). The short term strategy was successful
whereby the strategy managed to reduce the federal net lending from 5% deficit to 1.7 surplus
in 2001-2002. Canada was the only G-7 country that have a fiscal surplus, and fiscal forecast
that are positive for two-years (Bank of Canada Working Paper, 2004).

Year-over-year, the economy operating in a healthy trend as the Bank of Canada

wisely moving their policy interest rate upward. The economic growth is growing well with
more than 2% and the unemployment rate is decreasing with 6%.When the structural deficit
reached its highest in 2009 with 7.5% of GDP, it started to drop through 2014 and failing
about 2.0% of GDP (Congressional Research Service, 2019). In the beginning of 2016, the
structural deficit started to rise again with nearing 4.0% of GDP in 2018.

4.0 MONETARY POLICY

4.1 Monetary Policy in Canada.

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Monetary policy is the set of decisions that the government makes, it is usually through its
central bank, about the amount of the money in circulation in the economy. The monetary
policy in Canada is conducted by adjusting very short-term interest rates to achieve a rate of
monetary expansion consistent with maintaining a low and relatively stable rate of inflation.
In Canada there have three main characteristics. Which is first is the monetary policy in
Canada are conducted by the bank, the government-owned Crown corporation that operates
with considerable independence from the federal government but it is nonetheless ultimately
accountable to Parliament. Second characteristics of monetary policy in Canada are, the
financial capital can move easily within Canada, the interest rates on similar assets are the
same across all the Canadian regions. As we can see the result, there is only one monetary
policy for all of Canada. The bank of Canada is the sole issues of legal tender (bank notes) in
Canada. And lastly, although several economic are variables influence monetary policy
decisions, the bank of Canada has only one policy instrument. The bank policy instrument is
the target of it sets for the overnight interest rate. This is because in Canada, commercial
banks lend funds to each other for very short periods at the very short periods at the overnight
interest rate, a market determined rate that fluctuates daily.

4.1.1 What are the goals of monetary policy?

The goals of monetary policy are to preserve the value of the money by keeping the
inflation low, stable and also predictable. This allows the Canadians to make spending and
investment decisions to make spending and investment decisions with more confidence, it
encourages long-term investment in Canada’s economy, also contributes to sustained job
creation and make a greater productivity. This leads to improvements in our standard of
living.

4.1.2 What are the tools of monetary policy?

The Federal Reserve’s three instruments of monetary policy are open market
operations, the bank rate, government deposits and moral suasion. First is open market
operation, the buying and selling of Federal government bonds by the Bank of Canada. In this
Bond market, the Bank of Canada is playing an important tool that it conducts monetary
policy. It is also the Bank of Canada can use deposit-takers cash reserves as a lever to
influence both the money supply and interest rates.

In open bond market there are two transaction which is Bond sales and Bond
Purchases. The different between these two transactions are for Band sales it is selling bonds

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reduce the money supply decrease. For Bond purchases, it is buying bond causes the money
supply increase because it is an expansionary policy. Next is the bank rate, it is the interest
rate that paid by the chartered bank when they received Bank of Canada advance. It is tied to
the action of federal treasury bills. A rise in the bank rate signifies that the Bank of Canada
will pursue a tighter monetary policy, by lowering the money supply and raising interest
rates. The prime rate are the lowest possible interest rate charged by chartered banks on loans
to their best corporate customers. When the Prime rate varies, all of the other rates for
depositors and borrowers also vary. Thirdly, government deposits it held in both of the Bank
of Canada and in chartered Bank. The bank is conducts monetary policy by moving some
deposits from the bank of Canada to chartered banks or Vice Versa. It increase the chartered
banks excess reserves cause increase in the money supply. And last is moral suasion, it is
direct influence by the bank of Canada on chartered banks lending policies. It is used only in
usual circumstances.

4.1.3 Monetary Policy Rules.

The monetary policy rule was proposed by John Taylor in 1993. According to the
Taylor rule, the target for the policy-determined interest rate responds to three variables. The
equilibrium interest rate, the contemporaneous deviations of inflation from the target means
the inflation gap, and for the contemporaneous output gap. The equilibrium interest rate is the
rates that, over the longer run, it keeps output at potential. The original Taylor rule can be
expressed mathematically as:

it = it* + 1.5(πt - πt*) + 0.5(yt - yt*), where it*= rt* + πt*

and it is the target for the policy-determined shortterm interest rate, it* is the equilibrium
value of that interest rate, rt* is it* expressed in real terms (that is, after inflation), πt is the
year-over-year inflation rate, πt* is the corresponding inflation target, (πt - πt*) is the
inflation gap, yt is the log of real output, yt* is the log of real potential output, and (yt - yt*)
is the output gap.4 According to the Taylor rule, if inflation was 1 percentage point above the
target, and if there was an output gap of 1 per cent, the central bank would set its target for
the policy-determined short-term interest rate 200 basis points above its equilibrium value.
The parameters associated with the inflation gap and the output gaps were chosen by Taylor.
This means that the equation roughly described the actual behaviour of the Federal Reserve in
setting its target for the federal funds rate.

The parameter associated are with the inflation gap needs to be greater than one its to ensure
that inflation is stable said Taylor. The inclusion of the two gap terms are reflects the fact that
the Fed aims at maintaining a low and stable inflation rate as well as promoting the
sustainable output growth. In the recent years, the number of variants Taylor rule has been
developed. Their simple rule can be expressed as;

it = ρit-1 + (1 - ρ)[ it * + α(πt - πt*) + β(yt - yt*) ]

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 There were considerable uncertainty regarding the structure of the Canadian economy
and the shocks affecting the economy. Consequently, the advice regarding the monetary
policy should be based not solely on one characterization of the economy, but it also rather
on several alternative viewpoints. According to the bank of Canada, the uses information
from more than one model conducts monetary policy. Most of the Canada models are used at
bank in conducting monetary policy embodies monetary policy feedback rules. These rules
are under the monetary authorities respond in a systematic way to deviations between the
actual or forecast values and the target levels of variable considered.

5.0 INFLATION RATES

5.1 DEFINITION OF INFLATION

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A quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of a basket of selected
goods and services in an economy increases over a period. It is the constant rise in the general
level of prices where a unit of currency buys less than it did in prior periods
(Investopedia,2019).

5.2 TYPES OF INFLATION

There are six main types of inflation categorized by their speed as an example
creeping inflation, walking inflation, running inflation, galloping inflation, hyperinflation and
stagflation. In the aspect of degree in creeping inflation or also known as mild or low
inflation is whereby the situation in the market where the price is gently rising where the
price rise by not more than or up by to 3% per annum. Meanwhile, for the aspect degree of
walking inflation it is also known as trotting inflation where the situation of the price rate will
rise more than the creeping inflation and the price will rise between 3% and 10% per annum.
However, if the walking inflation is not being controlled or checked by the government the
situation will lead to the next aspect degree of inflation that is running inflation where the
price rate will rapidly rising between 10% and 20% per annum. The economic can be more
serious in the condition of galloping inflation or also known as jumping inflation if they do
not eradicate this from happening the price will rise between 20% and 1000% per annum. If
the galloping inflation also haven’t being recheck by the government the value of the money
reduces to almost zero, the people will start trading either their gold or silver or using the
system barter, the prices during this situation will hit skyrocket more than 50% or at an
alarmingly high rate of above 1000% per annum this situation is known as hyperinflation. In
the aspect of degree stagflation or slumpflation the situation is known where the combination
of high rate in inflation with unemployment and stagnant economic growth (teyhweichoo,
2019).

THE INFLATION RATE IN CANADA

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 Figure 2

(THE INFLATION RATE OF CANADA 2014-2024)

From the history of statistic of inflation that was made yearly for the all-time high
rate or maximum rate is 21.60% on June 1920 and for the lowest is 17.80% in June 1921.
During the year of 2014 the inflation rate was 0.93% and for the year 2015 the statistic shown
that it increases as much as 0.99% of rate from the last year inflation rate 2014 and the
inflation rate during 2015 is 1.92%. however, during the 2016 the rate decreases as much as
0.48% from the last year inflation rate, the rate during 2016 is 1.44%. nevertheless, in 2017
the inflation rate increases as much as 0.03% rather than the last year inflation rate that is
1.44% for this year inflation rate it is 1.47%. during 2018 the inflation rate increases as much
as 0.77% of the rate rather than last year inflation rate, the 2018 rate is 2.24%. in 2019, the
inflation rate decrease as much as 0.24% of the rate last year, this year rate is 2% of the
inflation rate.

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6.0 UNEMPLOYEMENT RATES

6.1 DEFINITION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Statistics Canada defines unemployed persons as those who were available for work during
the survey reference week (when labour force statistics are collected), but: were without work
and had looked for work in the past four weeks; were on temporary layoff due to business
conditions and expected to return to work; were waiting for a new job to begin within four
weeks (Canadian encyclopedia,2019).

6.2 TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT

There are 9 types of unemployment that is frictional unemployment, structural

unemployment, natural unemployment, cyclical unemployment, long-term unemployment,
real unemployment, seasonal unemployment, classical unemployment and underemployment.
However, there are 3 main types of unemployment that is structural, frictional and cyclical
unemployment. In the definition of frictional unemployment, it is defined as the result of
work moves inside an economy. Meanwhile, for the definition of structural unemployment it
is refers to a mismatch between the jobs available and the skill levels of the unemployed. For
the definition of natural unemployment, it is referring to the minimum unemployment rate
resulting from real, or voluntary, economic forces(Investopedia,2019). Thus, the definition
for cyclical unemployment whereby it defined as unemployment that results when the overall
demand for goods and services in an economy cannot support full employment. It occurs
during periods of slow economic growth or during periods of economic contraction
(study,2019). Hence, for the long-term definition it is defined as to people who have been
unemployed for 12 months or more (thebalance,2019). However, for the definition of
seasonal unemployment the demand for a specific kind of work and workers change with the
change in the season (thebusinessjargons,2019). In addition, in the aspect of classical
unemployment defined as unemployment resulting from an increase in wages above the free
market equilibrium wage rate (economicsonline,2019). For the last definition that is the
underemployment is refers to the condition in which people in a labor force are employed at
less than full-time or regular jobs or at jobs inadequate with respect to their training or
economic needs (merriamwebstar,2019)

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6.3 MEASURING UNEMPLOYMENT

There are 2 ways in measuring unemployment that is by the labor force participation
rate and the unemployment rate. The labor force participation unemployment is the
proportion of the labor force to the working age population (15 to 64 years old). Meanwhile,
the unemployment rate is the proportion of the unemployed persons to the total labor force, it
measures the percentage of the unemployed population in the labor force.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN CANADA

Figure 3

(THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF CANADA 2014-2024)

In the history of unemployment rate statistic of Canada, for th highest rate or known
as the maximum rate year by year rated is during December 1982 where the unemployment
rate is 13.10% and for the lowest or minimum rate of unemployment rate year by year rated is
during this year on May 2019 whereby the rate is 5.40%. During 2014, the statistic shown
that 6.93% is the unemployment during that year. However, during 2015 the statistic shown
that 6.9% is the unemployment rate during that year and it decreases as much as 3% from last
year rate that is 2014. During 2016, the statistic shown that 6.99% of unemployment rate
where it increases more than 0.09% of rate than last year rate that is 2015. In 2017, the
unemployment rate is 6.33% whereby is decreases as much as 0.66% rate of unemployment
rather than last year unemployment rate of 2016.during the 2018, the unemployment rate also
decreases as much as 0.5% from 2017 and the unemployment rate during 2018 is 5.83%. In
November 2019, the unemployment rate decrease as much as 0.04% from last year
unemployment rate and the unemployment rate during year 2019 is 5.79%.

7.0 CONCLUSION

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 In conclusion, Canada have strengthen its policy to avoid inflation and unemployment
from becoming increasing each year. The government responsible for making policy that are
relevant in order to combat these two most important economic problem. In order to do these,
the government have to identify the underlying causes for employment as well as inflation. If
the government failed to keep the rate of inflation and unemployment at bay, it could bring
negative impact to the people lives such as drives the people to poverty. It is important to
eradicate unemployment as high unemployment contribute in increasing government
borrowing. Therefore, the government or those who are responsible in the country economic
should be aware of these problem to be able to tackle it from becoming even worse.

REFERENCES

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The Canadian Encyclopedia. (2015). “Fiscal Policy”. Retrieved from

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/fiscal-policy 6December2019

Bank of Canada Working Paper. (2004). “Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some
Interesting Principles for EMU?”. Retrieved from https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-
content/uploads/2010/02/wp04-28.pdf 6 December2019

Congressional Research Service. (2019). “Fiscal Policy: Economic Effects”. Retrieved

from https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45723.pdf 8 December2019.

Bank of Canada. ( ). “The Economy and Economic Policy”. Retrieved from

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/books-and-monographs/why-monetary-
policy-matters/1-economy/. 4 December 2019.

Yarhi, E. (n.d.). Unemployment in Canada. Retrieved December 13, 2019, from

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/unemploymen

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https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp.

Underemployment. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2019, from https://www.merriam-

webster.com/dictionary/underemployment.

Classical unemployment. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2019, from

https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Definitions/Classical_unemployment.html.

What is Seasonal Unemployment? definition and meaning - Business Jargons . (2016, July 9).
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unemployment.html.

Unemployment - Long-term unemployment rate - OECD Data. (n.d.). Retrieved December

13, 2019, from https://data.oecd.org/unemp/long-term-unemployment-rate.htm.

Cyclical unemployment. (n.d.). Retrieved December 13, 2019, from

https://study.com/academy/lesson/cyclical-unemployment-definition-examples-
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Kagan, J. (2019, November 18). What Is Natural Unemployment? Retrieved December 13,
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Amadeo, K. (2019, November 15). When Unemployment Is a Good Thing. Retrieved

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