Magicleap 160416093303 PDF
Magicleap 160416093303 PDF
Magicleap 160416093303 PDF
Given that Magic Leap is in stealth, most information out there is PR-driven. This report represents over
300 hours of collective research on Magic Leap’s patents (photonics, lightfields, mixed reality etc.),
industry knowledge and product risk mitigation analysis to build the best picture I possibly could on Magic
Leap and truly add value to readers out there. It’ll be great to hear any feedback.
Contact details are at the end. You can also find out more about me at www.nicholas-ng.com.
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TLDR: ML’s biggest challenges are developing/shrinking tech,
scaling production and market launch
Potential to lead the $ 1.6tn MR/AR market (2035) is huge but some areas of concern:
• Product Development – Photonics is still very new, and shrinking the scaffolding prototype to a glass form factor will prove very challenging.
• Scaling & Manufacturing – Moving from prototype to millions of units is a huge manufacturing hurdle.
• Launching – Chinese markets are hard to penetrate; CE demand is slowing; ML could be too early for its time; heated competition from tech giants.
Terminology used in report: AR = Augmented Reality, MR = Mixed Reality, VR = Virtual Reality, TLDR = Too long didn’t read, ML = Magic Leap 3
Section A: Why and what is Magic Leap
Each generational shift has consistent patterns, the next devices will be:
• Move even closer to our body and eyes: More personal than ever before
• Smaller, more mobile and follow us closer as we spend more time with them: We will be more dependent on them than ever before
• More affordable, wider appeal and higher adoption: More mainstream than ever before 4
Source: KPCB Mary Meeker
Section A: Why and what is Magic Leap
Smartphones are clumsy ML removes physical screen boundaries Using cutting-edge technologies
Anti-social Share
We feel guilty using them in front of friends. Everyone can experience this new world with Magic Leap.
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Section B: Where is Magic Leap now
Goal :
Launch a fully Product Scaling &
formed product to Development Manufacturing Launching
the public
Section C Section D Section E - H
Preferred Contribution
Product Development Scaling & Manufacturing Launching
My Background • Samsung: Shipped hardware products, program • Dell: Previous procurement strategy, • Tribesports: Market launch, business
management and product development of next- negotiation and supply chain experience with development and partnerships to grow user
gen display technologies (Retinal Projection, VR) Chinese and Taiwanese contract adoption and retention
• Samsung: Product innovation (smartphones, manufacturers • Samsung: Product strategy and innovation
robots) (display technology, smartphones, robots)
• Dell: Scenario analysis and market strategy
Positions at ML • Program Manager (magicleap.com/#/job- • Strategic Sourcing Manager, Optical • Business Development Associate
that I’m keen in post/145081) (magicleap.com/#/job-post/112018) (magicleap.com/#/job-post/179993)
• Project Manager (magicleap.com/#/job- • Strategic Sourcing Manager, Mechanical • General Submission (magicleap.com/#/job-
post/177030) (magicleap.com/#/job-post/112025) post/106781)
• Lead NPI Program Manager
(magicleap.com/#/job-post/172625)
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Following pages will go through proposed solutions & approaches in detail
Section B: Where is Magic Leap now
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Source: MIT Technology Review
Section B: Where is Magic Leap now
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Section B: Where is Magic Leap now
Investment benchmarking: ML, FB, Uber MR/AR market size forecasts Magic Leap as % of total AR/VR investments
$ millions, Seed round to Series C $ billions, 2016F – 2035F $ millions, Seed round to Series C
1,747
793.5 Magic Leap
2016F 0.5
Others
2017F 4.0
542 45.4%
2018F 15 171%
375 2019F 49 52.9%
714.9
258
2020F 90
82.8% 54.6%
50 2025F 680 193.9
0 0.5 12.7 37
27.5 22.1 26.5
1.5 11 17.2%
2035F 1,589
Seed Series A Series B Series C 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 &
2016Q1
1 Magic Leap funding exceeds that of 2 MR/AR is set to explode: $90B by 2020 and 3 52% of all MR/AR/VR investments are
Uber and Facebook combined $ 1.6tn by 2035 going into Magic Leap
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Source: Crunchbase; TechCrunch; Fast Company; Citibank; Digi-Capital; Fortune
Section C: Product development
Hardware is hard Cutting edge tech comes with high risk Shrinking takes years of investments
Time and resource intensive Silicon photonics is in its infancy Being pioneers in the field
Development can span years, require large specialist teams, Few companies have successfully delivered commercial Magic Leap has been trying to shrink down from the first
and collaboration between hardware, software, design, photonic chips (closest is probably IBM), with most of the work scaffolding prototype since 2011, and is successful in getting it
marketing etc. on the area remaining in research labs. smaller. But cramming the electrical/photonics components,
sensors and improving the FOV and resolution in a sunglass
form factor is something that hasn’t been done before.
Little room for iteration Starting from scratch
Unlike software where updates are used to patch, once past Magic Leap has to succeed where no one has before: photonic Retaining the experience
the “go to tool” or “ship” milestones, you’ve invested millions chip design, materials and building Magic Leap’s own chip fab
Current shrinking efforts results in a product that can’t match
in a mold or the product is in consumers’ hands, making it hard (down to fab design and fab techniques) which is tricky and
the impressive experience of the scaffolding prototype.
to make design changes or make recalls. very expensive.
And so much more… Success depends heavily on photonics Low cost and high yield process
Magic Leap needs an economical, reliable and repeatable
Planning supply and demand, establish global distribution For Magic Leap to deliver the experience it wants, it needs to
shrinking method.
channels and at the end, you still have to do the software! get photonics right, which leaves little room for risk hedging.
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Source: Digi-Capital, Goldman Sachs
Section C: Product development
From Magic Leap’s patent analysis, Magic Leap’s final product To further develop and help shrink the scaffolding prototype To develop and shrink Magic Leap into the final sunglass form is
plans to accomplish the following display system: down to be able to be mounted on the head, several avenues really going into the unknown. Just like how computers to 50
could be helped to hasten the transition: years of concerted global R&D to go from room-sized to palm
Projection device that projects an image towards the sized, it’s hard to say how long and how much Magic Leap needs
1 viewer's eye and is transparent when no image is
1 Hire experts to help with photonics/optics fabrication to do that in fields like photonics, optics and sensors. Someareas
projected (e.g. waveguides, photonic ICs, SLM etc.) of concern and processes that could help are:
Light-blocking layer that can selectively block light from Partnerships with organizations and academic institutes System innovation: novel shielding methods, radical
2 outside the device in locations where the projection
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who are leading photonics experts. IBM, MIT, UC
1 thermal management systems or new methods of power
device is projecting an image Berkeley, and University of Colorado Boulder are at the management to increase battery life and reduce power
forefront of this research. consumption and heat generation
“Zone plate diffraction patterning device" that sits
between the projection device and the viewer’s eye, and Acquire rights and technology, enter joint ventures or co- IC innovation: like packaging/mounting methods or die
3 causes light to pass through a variable diffraction 3 investments with fabricators and research institutes 2 shrink
pattern. This likely creates the 3D effect and alters the
image so it appears at the desired distance from the Leverage on existing sensor platforms: Kinect, Leap Materials/fabrication innovation: like how LIGA used
viewer. 4 Motion, Sixense 3 etching/molding instead of subtractive manufacturing
which shrunk components significantly
Magic Leap’s scaffolding prototype also needs the following Begin preparing for manufacturing:
subsystems: • NPI to plan, direct and coordinate new product and process The biggest fear is that Magic Leap is held back by the limitations
• Mechanical chassis development programs by providing technical guidance or of physics.
• Sensors: motion control, positional and eye tracking assessment in the design, development, assembly and testing
• Computing unit: CPU, AP, GPU, Connectivity • Product/marketing requirement documents to be drafted
• Software: Operating • Production/project support systems e.g. PLM, PDM and ERP
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Section D: Scaling and manufacturing
1 China is an important market for Magic Leap 2 Magic Leap brought Alibaba in to help with China
Chinese Consumption Will Triple by 2020 Eyes and ears in China
Nominal Private Consumption, $ trillions, 2020F For entry in a respectful and sensitive way, to succeed where others have failed.
15.0
Consumption Growth, 2015 - 2020
China’s spend will
2.6 triple by 2020 Aligned vision of the future
Consumption, 2015
Alibaba understands the right way to use Magic Leap to revolutionize e-commerce.
China has the fastest growing
consumption now and will
surpass the U.S. to have the E-commerce applications
6.5 Solving the disconnect faced by 400 million people on Alibaba: buying physical items but being unable to see
12.4 highest overall spend by 2024
(not shown on graph) them with your own eyes.
4.2 3.0 2.8
0.4 2.2 0.4 2.1
1.3 0.3 1.7 0.4
2.3 2.4
1.6 1.8 1.8 1.3
3 But this isn’t enough
U.S. China India Japan Germany UK France
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Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; BCG Analysis; Digi-Capital, Telegraph
Section E: Market launch
Smart-
phone
HMD 1,000
Smart- Laptop TV Tablet Smart- Fitness WiFi Smart Drone
phone watch Monitor Camera Thermo
2016 Purchase
48% 30% 30% 29% 13% 13% 11% 9% 7%
Tablet Intent Rate
2015 Purchase
100
54% 36% 38% 38% 12% 12% 10% 9% 6%
Game Intent Rate
Console
% Point Change
-6% -6% -8% -9% +1% +1% +1% 0% +1%
Over 2015
Laptop
TV Smartwatch
ASP ($)
They are also seeing sinking demand, and are ripe for disruption
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10,000 1,000 100 10 • Smartphones, laptops, TVs and Tablets are seeing decreasing demand year-on-year.
• Even other very recent categories are seeing tepid, unenthusiastic growth.
$ 700bn CE market is entering twilight
• Smartphones ($ 450bn), Laptops ($ 110bn), TVs ($ 90bn), Tablets
($ 50bn) were a $ 700bn market in 2015.
• Only MR/AR/VR is early in its lifecycle, far away from peak value
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Source: Citibank, Statista
Section G: Product
Glass Ceilings (Problems with Google Glass) Magic Breakthroughs (What Magic Leap can do)
Poor product experience Perfecting the experience in niche segments
Developer kits were priced too high, was functionally handicapped (e.g. poor display, interface By not committing to a release date, Magic Leap can deliver the perfect gaming, media and app
lag), and while capable of doing many things, did not do a single task well. experience, in areas where the technology excels and is actually useful.
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Section H: Product
The Smartphone had a painful product journey for nearly 20 years before
1 it got really popular outside tech circles.
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Section H: Product
Real estate $ 107bn in US, JP, UK, GER 1.4mn real estate agents in US, JP, UK, GER 300k $ 2.6bn
• While UberX works in most parts of the world, Uber
had to launch UberMoto that catered to the
Retail $ 1.5tr ecommerce market 1bn+ online shoppers and in-store shoppers 31.5mn $ 1.6bn popularity of bike taxis in India.
Healthcare $ 16bn monitoring devices ~8mn physicians and EMTs in developed markets 3.4mn $ 5.1bn • While Spotify subscriptions are billed on credit cards,
Videogames $ 106bn videogame market ~230mn install base of game consoles 216mn $ 11.6bn
Indonesia had low card penetration so Spotify
developed a system that accepts cash.
Live events $ 44bn live sports ticketing ~715mn World Cup viewers, ~92mn ESPN subs 95mn $ 4.1bn
• Magic Leap could benefit from custom hardware,
Video $ 50bn Netflix TAM ~450mn Netflix households 79mn $ 3.2bn software and content for each country/region.
Education $ 12bn K-12/higher education ~200mn in developed markets 15mn $ 0,7bn • Crowdsource: By building in a hardware expansion port, we
allow communities to figure out the best use for Magic Leap
Engineering $ 20bn engineering software ~6mn engineers in US, EUR, JP 3.2mn $ 4.7bn and empower them to build solutions while Magic Leap could
Military $ 9bn defense simulation ~6.9mn military personnel in “high income” countries 700k $ 1.4bn benefit from hardware licenses as an alternate revenue stream.
Additional revenue from royalties Demo real use at events Is volume or revenue priority?
Hardware and accessory sales Show off real use Direct or resellers
MR/AR hardware revenue is projected to be $ 26bn (2025), • Set up booths in malls where people can experience how
Magic Leap has to determine if selling direct (online and retail)
additional revenue can be obtained from expansion port / Magic Leap transforms the way they shop. or going with a distributor-reseller channel model with retail
accessory licensing. (Apple’s MFi program charged $10 per • Provide live translation of signs and menus for tourists for partners that includes incentives, promotions and margin play
device, translating into billions of dollars of revenue) hotel guests, travelers at airports and help centers. is benefits unit sales and revenue.
• Give overlay commentary to users whoa re watching a live
match at a stadium (e.g. NFL, F1, Wimbledon).
Apps and content ecosystem Pricing
Magic Leap can take a cut of all apps and content
purchased/distributed on its ecosystem, similar to the current Event / content partnerships Determine ideal launch pricing for Magic Leap to maximize unit
We can also consider event partnerships (e.g. fashion, car sales and revenue.
Apple and Play Stores. Apple made $ 6.3bn in app distribution
revenue in 2015 alone. shows, marathons etc.) as part of a go-to-market strategy,
after compatible and possibly exclusive content partners which
Magic Leap already has (e.g. Legendary, Weta etc).
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Source: Digi-Capital, Goldman Sachs
Section I: Competition
Easy Execution
(Quick-to-Market,
?
Apple
Glass Hololens
Hard Execution
(Slow-to-Market,
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Everyone, with the exception of Magic Leap and Avegant, uses stereoscopic 3-D that
tricks your eyes and makes you dizzy and nauseous. Both Magic Leap and Avegant uses
retinal projection that has a large FOV and higher resolution that creates vivid images
naturally.
Low Complexity) High Complexity)
Sony Avegant is positioned as “mediawear”, a personal theatre for video entertainment, which
is limiting in use case. This leaves Magic Leap as the eventual winner, with limitless use
Playstation VR
Avegant 4 cases, has an enormous market and because of healthy funding, has the potential to get
Glyph the product to a price point accessible to mass markets.
Facebook
Magic Leap should fiercely defend its proprietary intellectual property: strengthen legal
Oculus Rift
5 team, file more and deeper patents, license out technology or engage strategic partners
to defend IP.
HTC
Vive
Niche (Small Market, High Cost)
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Section J: Summary
Area Product Development Scaling Production Market Launch Business Product Competition
Problem Photonics and Moving from prototype to Launching in Asia Demand for consumer Could MR be too early for Multiple competitors are
miniaturization will be millions of units is a (especially China) is very electronics is slowing its time? launching technically
difficult manufacturing hurdle different from America simpler solutions earlier
Solution Tackle technical challenges Ramp from prototype to Sandbox in other Create new product Begin consumer adoption Remain in stealth until the
in stages: Begin from small volume developed Asian countries category and disrupt the 4 from B2B (real estate, product is ready, then
scaffolding form factor, to manufacturing, and finally first, to test run systems largest CE markets: retail, healthcare), ensure that it addresses
head mounted, and finally to large volume while preparing for a Smartphones, Laptops, TVs, providing real value and consumers’ needs and is
larger launch in the
to sunglasses manufacturing Chinese market Tablets totaling $ 700bn in having strong marketing, affordable
2015 monetization and
distribution
Current open • Program Manager • Strategic Sourcing • Business Development Associate • General Submission (magicleap.com/#/job-
roles (magicleap.com/#/job- Manager, Optical (magicleap.com/#/job-post/179993) post/106781
post/145081) (magicleap.com/#/job- • General Submission (magicleap.com/#/job-
• Project Manager post/112018) post/106781
(magicleap.com/#/job- • Strategic Sourcing
post/177030) Manager, Mechanical
(magicleap.com/#/job-
post/112025)
• Lead NPI Program
Manager
(magicleap.com/#/job-
post/172625
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Section J: Summary
Business
Development
Human Resource: Everything else
• General Submission • Eric Schmidt told Sheryl Sandberg in 2001, "If you're offered a seat on a rocket ship, you don't ask what seat, you
just get on.
Everything
Else
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Section K: Why I love Magic Leap
Passion
I absolutely believe that Mixed Realities will be integral to our future world.
Love Startups
I miss working in a startup environment (used to be in one): getting my hands
dirty, surrounded by passionate and smart people working together towards a A Personal Mission
seemingly impossible goal. Fast forward 7 years, nothing has changed. A historical abandoned railway tour I
went to last year promised visitors a personalized tour and immerse them in a
curious mix of history and technology (e.g. see how the old trains arrived at the
Child Tinkerer station etc.) using augmented reality. The experience was atrocious. I left the tour
I’ve been building and fixing computers, mini solar race cars and gadgets since I wondering “why did it have to be this awful?”
was 12. Magic Leap is an innate extension of my childhood.
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Thank You!
Nicholas Ng
Email: nicholas.ngjf@gmail.com
Web: www.nicholas-ng.com
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasngjf
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