World 2... Czech
World 2... Czech
World 2... Czech
Manuscript received June 26, 2011. This work was supported by the
Czech Science Foundation (Project GAČR P403/11/P243: Liquidity risk of
commercial banks in the Visegrad countries).
P. Vodová is with the Department of Finance, School of Business
Administration in Karviná, Silesian University in Opava, 73401 Czech
Republic (e-mail: vodova@opf.slu.cz).
under suspicion of insolvency or when there is a 4) [5] define funding liquidity risk in much more narrow
temporary aggregate liquidity shortage, way: as an ability of a bank to settle obligations with
2) on the asset side, there is an uncertainty on the volume of central bank money immediately when due. This
new requests for loans that a bank will receive in the definition enables them to develop a measure of the
future, funding liquidity risk based on banks’ bids during open
3) off-balance sheet operations, like credit lines and other market operations. They argue that if there are frictions in
commitments, positions taken by banks on derivative interbank and asset markets (like asymmetric information
markets. or imperfect competition), banks with higher funding
According to [14], liquidity is not dependent simply on liquidity risk will bid more aggressively. Hence, a higher
objective, exogenous factors (such as efficient market spread indicates higher risk (banks with higher funding
infrastructure, low transaction costs, large number of buyers liquidity risk are willing to pay a higher price to obtain
and sellers, transparent characteristics of traded assets), but is funds from the central bank to hedge this risk). They
crucially influenced by endogenous forces, especially by the based their analysis on data of 135 main refinancing
dynamic reactions of market participants in the face of operation auctions conducted between June 2005 and
uncertainty and changes in asset values. In favourable December 2007 in the euro area. The results showed that
conditions, liquidity is easily available and cheap and can be higher funding liquidity risk implies lower market
determined by exogenous factors. But under stress conditions, liquidity.
liquidity becomes very scarce and expensive and it may 5) [19] develop the basis for an approach to measure the
become even effectively unavailable. liquidity risk sensitivity of banks. He tested different
As liquidity problems of some banks during global financial scenarios and measured the impact of all simulations by
crisis re-emphasised, liquidity is very important for relative changes of liquidity ratios.
functioning of financial markets and the banking sector. 6) Some studies use also panel data regression analysis to
However, an important gap exists in the empirical literature identification of determinants of liquidity risk – e.g. [6] or
about liquidity risk measuring. Only few studies concern this [20].
topic and use following methodology: 7) The last possible method is to measure the liquidity risk
1) Estimation of the demand function of banks for excess by liquidity adjusted Value at Risk or incorporating
reserves – studies try to estimate the demand function for market liquidity risk into Value at Risk models – e.g. [10],
excess reserves (or liquid assets) by commercial banks [21] or [22].
usually use the model of Agénor [15] which specified the However, most of above cited studies uses at least as an
demand for liquidity as a function of the ratio of excess input for further calculations one of two basic methods for
liquid assets over total bank deposits, the ratio of required measuring the liquidity risk: liquidity gap or liquidity ratios.
liquid assets to total bank deposits, current and lagged The liquidity gap is the difference between assets and
values of the coefficient of variation of the cash-to-deposit liabilities at both present and future dates. At any date, a
ratio, the deviation of output from trend, and the discount positive gap between assets and liabilities is equivalent to a
rate. Studies following this paper usually modify variables deficit [23].
used for estimation of the demand function, e.g. [16] or Liquidity ratios are various balance sheet ratios which
[17]. should identify main liquidity trends. These ratios reflect the
2) [18] investigated aggregate bank excess liquidity fact that bank should be sure that appropriate, low-cost
preference curve for the pre-crisis and crisis periods. This funding is available in a short time. This might involve holding
approach builds on Keynes and his liquidity trap. There is a portfolio of assets than can be easily sold (cash reserves,
one important difference: while Keynes wrote about minimum required reserves or government securities), holding
perfect substitution between cash and bonds, this paper significant volumes of stable liabilities (especially deposits
looks at the relationship between bank excess reserves and from retail depositors) or maintaining credit lines with other
the lending rate. financial institutions. Various authors like [6], [Moore], [19]
3) [8] analyzed the liquidity in the French banking system or [24] provide various liquidity ratios.
between 1993 and 2005 by net changes in the stock of For the purpose of this research we will use for evaluation
liquidity in banks’ balance sheets. They have found of liquidity positions of commercial banks in the Czech
substantial evidence of simultaneous liquidity expansion Republic following four different liquidity ratios (1) – (4):
and contraction, as well as extensive balance sheet
liquidity reshuffling, in a context where bank liquidity is liquid assets
L1 (1)
expanding overall. Bank liquidity exhibits interesting total assets
cyclical properties. Positive and negative flows
procyclically lead the cycle by approximately two The liquidity ratio L1 should give us information about the
quarters. Bank liquidity is determined by output, asset general liquidity shock absorption capacity of a bank. As a
prices and monetary policy impulses. general rule, the higher the share of liquid assets in total assets,
the higher the capacity to absorb liquidity shock, given that 3) bank profitability, which is according to finance theory
market liquidity is the same for all banks in the sample. negatively correlated with liquidity (-),
Nevertheless, high value of this ratio may be also 4) loan growth, where higher loan growth signals increase in
interpreted as inefficiency. Since liquid assets yield lower illiquid assets (-),
income liquidity bears high opportunity costs for the bank. 5) size of the bank (?),
Therefore it is necessary to optimize the relation between 6) gross domestic product growth as an indicator of business
liquidity and profitability. cycle (-),
7) short term interest rate, which should capture the
liquid assets monetary policy effect (-).
L2 (2) Determinants of liquidity risk of banks from emerging
deposits short term borrowing
economies with panel data regression analysis are analysed by
[20]. The liquidity ratio as a measure of bank’s liquidity
The liquidity ratio L2 uses concept of liquid assets as well.
assumed to be dependent on individual behaviour of banks,
However, this ratio is more focused on the bank’s sensitivity to
their market and macroeconomic environment and the
selected types of funding (we included deposits of households,
exchange rate regime, i.e. on following factors:
enterprises and other financial institutions). The ratio L2
1) total assets as a measure of the size of the bank (-),
should therefore capture the bank’s vulnerability related to
2) the ratio of equity to assets as a measure of capital
these funding sources. The bank is able to meet its obligations
adequacy (+),
in terms of funding (the volume of liquid assets is high enough
3) the presence of prudential regulation, which means the
to cover volatile funding) if the value of this ratio is 100 % or
obligation for banks to be liquid enough (+),
more. Lower value indicates a bank’s increased sensitivity
4) the lending interest rate as a measure of lending
related to deposit withdrawals.
profitability (-),
5) the share of public expenditures on gross domestic
loans
L3 (3) product as a measure of supply of relatively liquid assets
total assets (+),
6) the rate of inflation, which increases the vulnerability of
The ratio L3 measures the share of loans in total assets. It banks to nominal values of loans provided to customers
indicates what percentage of the assets of the bank is tied up in (+),
illiquid loans. Therefore the higher this ratio the less liquid the 7) the realization of a financial crisis, which could be caused
bank is. by poor bank liquidity (-),
8) the exchange rate regime, where banks in countries with
loans extreme regimes (the independently floating exchange rate
L4 (4)
deposits short term financing regime and hard pegs) were more liquid than in countries
with intermediate regimes.
The empirical analysis of the hypothesis that interest rates
The last liquidity ratio L4 relates illiquid assets with liquid
affect banks’ risk taking and the decision to hold liquidity
liabilities. Its interpretation is the same as in case of ratio L3:
across European countries provides [25]. This study takes into
the higher this ratio the less liquid the bank is.
account variables connected with interbank market, specific
III. DETERMINANTS OF BANK LIQUIDITY characteristics of banks and proxies for bank risk-taking
behaviour. The liquidity measured by different liquidity ratios
Although liquidity problems of some banks during global should be influenced by:
financial crisis re-emphasized the fact that liquidity is very 1) behaviour of the bank on the interbank market – the more
important for functioning of financial markets and the banking liquid the bank is the more it lends in the interbank market
sector, an important gap still exists in the empirical literature (+),
about liquidity and its measuring. Only few studies aim to 2) interbank rate as a measure of incentives of banks to hold
identify determinants of liquidity. liquidity (+),
Bank-specific and macroeconomic determinants of liquidity 3) monetary policy interest rate as a measure of banks ability
of English banks studies [6]. They assumed that the liquidity to provide loans to customers (-),
ratio as a measure of the liquidity should be dependent on 4) share of loans on total assets and share of loan loss
following factors (estimated influence on bank liquidity in provisions on net interest revenues, both as a measure of
parenthesis): risk-taking behavior of the bank, where liquid banks
1) probability of obtaining the support from lender of last should reduce the risk-taking behavior (-),
resort, which should lower the incentive for holding liquid 5) bank size measured by logarithm of total bank assets (+).
assets (-), The effects of the financial crisis on the liquidity of
2) interest margin as a measure of opportunity costs of commercial banks in Latin America and Caribbean countries
holding liquid assets (-),
investigated [17]. Liquidity should depend on: variables, δi denotes fixed effects in bank i and εi is the error
1) cash requirements of customers, captured by fluctuations term.
in the cash-to-deposit ratio (-), It is evident that the most important task is to choose the
2) current macroeconomic situation, where a cyclical appropriate explanatory variables. The selection of variables
downturn should lower banks' expected transactions was based on previous relevant studies. We considered
demand for money and therefore lead to decreased whether the use of the particular variable makes economical
liquidity (+), sense in Czech conditions. For this reason, we excluded from
3) money market interest rate as a measure of opportunity the analysis variables such as political incidents, impact of
costs of holding liquidity (-). economic reforms or the exchange rate regime. We also
Liquidity created by Germany’s state-owned savings banks considered which other factors could influence the liquidity of
and its determinants has been analyzed by [26]. They focused banks in the Czech Republic. The limiting factor then was the
particularly on macroeconomic factors but they captured bank availability of some data. Table I shows a list of variables
specific characteristics as well. According to this study, which we have used in regression analysis.
following factors can determine bank liquidity:
1) monetary policy interest rate, where tightening monetary TABLE I
VARIABLES DEFINITION
policy reduces bank liquidity (-),
2) level of unemployment, which is connected with demand Est.
Variable Definition Source
effect
for loans (-),
Bank specific variables
3) savings quota (+), CAP the share of own capital on total assets of the Annual +
4) level of liquidity in previous period (+), bank reports
5) size of the bank measured by total number of bank NPL the share of non-performing loans on total Annual -
volume of loans provided by the bank reports
customers (-), ROE return on equity: the share of net profit on Annual -
6) bank profitability (-). own capital of the bank reports
Entirely unique is the approach of [16]. Except of bank TOA logarithm of total assets of the bank Annual +/-
reports
specific and macroeconomic variables, they pay attention to Macroeconomic variables
the influence of political instability. They considered these FIC dummy variable for realization of financial own -
determinants of liquidity: crisis (1 in 2009, 0 in rest of the period)
GDP Growth rate of gross domestic product IMF -
1) level of economic output (+), growth (93599BPXZF...GDP volume %
2) discount rate (+), change)
3) reserve requirements (?), INF inflation rate: (93564..XZF...CPI % change) IMF +
4) cash-to-deposit ratio (-), IRB interest rate on interbank transactions: IMF +
(93560B..ZF...Money market interest rate)
5) rate of depreciation of the black market exchange rate (+), IRL interest rate on loans: IMF -
6) impact of economic reform (-), (93560P..ZF…Lending rate)
7) violent political incidence (+). IRM difference between interest rate on loans IMF -
(93560P..ZF…Lending rate) and interest
Studies cited above suggest that commercial banks’ liquidity rate on deposits (93560L..ZF...Deposit rate)
is determined both by bank specific factors (such as size of the MIR monetary policy interest rate – two week IMF -
bank, profitability, capital adequacy and factors describing risk repo rate: (93560...ZF...Bank rate)
UNE Unemployment rate: IMF -
position of the bank) as well as macroeconomic factors (such (93567R..ZF...Unemployment rate)
as different types of interest rates, interest margin or indicators
of economic environment). It can be useful to take into
We consider four bank specific factors and eight
account some other influences, such as the realization of
macroeconomic factors. As it can be seen from Table I, we
financial crisis, changes in regulation or political incidents.
expect that three factors could have positive impact on bank
liquidity (the share of own capital, inflation rate and interest
IV. METHODOLOGY AND DATA
rate on interbank market), the rest of factors are expected to
In order to identify determinants of liquidity of Czech have negative impact on bank liquidity.
commercial banks, the panel data regression analysis is used. Macroeconomic data were provided by International
For each liquidity ratio, we estimate following equation: Financial Statistics of International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Bank specific data were obtained from annual reports of Czech
Lit 'X it i it (5) banks. We used unconsolidated balance sheet and profit and
loss data over the period from 2001 to 2009. The panel is
where Lit is one of four liquidity ratios1 for bank i in time t, unbalanced as some of the banks do not report over the whole
Xit is a vector of explanatory variables for bank i in time t, α is period of time. Table II shows more details about the sample.
constant, β' are coefficient which represents the slope of
TABLE II
DATA AVAILABILITY
1
Liquidity ratios L1 – L4 were calculated according to (1) - (4).
Because our sample includes most of the Czech banking C -8785.403* 1826.702
CAP 24.23011* 6.648880
sector (not only by the number of banks, but also by their share INF -62.56230** 28.13294
on total banking assets), we used fixed effects regression. IRL 355.5998* 115.6788
TOA 605.0599* 118.2894
V. RESULTS Adjusted R2 0.210631
Total panel observations 137
We use an econometric package EViews 7. After tests of
The starred coefficient estimates are significant at the 1 % (*) or 5 % (**)
stationarity, we proceed with regression estimation. We level.
estimate (5) separately for each of four defined liquidity ratios.
We gradually change the content of the vector of explanatory Table IV shows determinants of liquidity measured by the
variables Xit. The aim is to find a model which has a high ratio L2. Explanatory power of the model is lower. We found
adjusted coefficient of determination and simultaneously the that capital adequacy, inflation rate and interest rate on loans
variables used are statistically significant. have the same impact on bank liquidity as in case of model for
As it can be seen from following tables, results of the ratio L1. The last explanatory variable which has statistically
analysis suggest that each liquidity ratio is determined by significant influence on the liquidity is the size of bank,
different factors. measured by logarithm of total bank assets. According to our
findings, liquidity is increasing with the size of the bank.
TABLE III
DETERMINANTS OF LIQUIDITY MEASURED BY L1
TABLE V
Variable Coefficient Standard deviation DETERMINANTS OF LIQUIDITY MEASURED BY L3
If we measure liquidity with ratio L1, we find determinants Determinants of liquidity measured by the ratio L3 are
of liquidity captured in Table III. The explanatory power of presented in Table V. As high value of this ratio means low
this model is very high; however, signs of coefficients mostly liquidity, these results have to be interpreted in reverse:
do not correspond with our expectations. The positive positive sign of the coefficient means negative impact on
influence of the share of capital on total assets is consistent liquidity and conversely.
with the assumption that bank with sufficient capital adequacy Explanatory power of the model is again very high. The
should be liquid, too. The negative impact of financial crisis results of the analysis show that only three factors influence
has been mentioned above. the share of illiquid loans in total assets.
However, influence of other factors is opposite than we As in case of previous ratios, the capital adequacy and the
expected. Inflation rate has negative impact on bank liquidity. share of non-performing loans show positive relations with
It seems that inflation deteriorates overall macroeconomic bank liquidity.
environment and thus lowers bank liquidity. Growth rate of gross domestic product is statistically
Positive effect of interest rate on loans can be quite significant with three years lag. In the context of the ratio L3,
surprising. It highlights the fact that higher lending rates do not this lag is in accordance with the philosophy that companies
encourage banks to lend more. This is consistent with the must make a profit first to have sufficient creditworthiness and
problem of credit crunch and credit rationing, whose presence to be able to get a loan. The positive coefficient on GDP
in the Czech banking sector has been proved in [27]. growth rate signals that according to our expectations, liquidity
Although we estimated negative influence of non- tends to be inversely related to the business cycle. Most
borrowers want to take a loan during expansion when they rate of gross domestic product have negative impact on bank
have valuable investments projects. Banks which would like to liquidity.
satisfy the growing demand for loans would face lower The relation between the size of the bank and its liquidity is
liquidity. During economic downturn, lending opportunities ambiguous. It could be useful to divide banks into groups
are not so good so banks hold higher share of liquid assets. according to their size and to estimate determinants of liquidity
separately for small, medium-sized and large banks.
TABLE VI We also found that unemployment, interest margin, bank
DETERMINANTS OF LIQUIDITY MEASURED BY L4
profitability and monetary policy interest rate have no
Variable Coefficient Standard deviation statistically significant effect on the liquidity of Czech
commercial banks.
C -26529.85* 5521.369
CAP -72.94792* 20.23211
IRB -417.6170** 169.2004 REFERENCES
IRL -1055.056* 387.8583
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