Estimasi Statistik

KULIAH STATISTIKA 2
ESTIMASI TITIK
(POINT ESTIMATION)
RABU, 7 Oktober 2020

KULIAH STATISTIKA 2
CAKUPAN STATISTIKA
ESTIMATION METHODS
Estimation
Point Interval
Estimation Estimation
POINT ESTIMATION
Thinking Challenge
Suppose you’re
interested in the
average amount of
money that students
in this class (the
population) have on
them. How would
you find out?
Rp. 50.000
Or
Rp. 25.000 – Rp. 100.000
Term of estimation
– Parameter
– Statistic
– Estimator
– Estimate
Estimate Population with Sample

Parameter... Statistic
Mean  x
Proportion p p^
2

2
Variance s
Differences 1 -  2 x1 -x2
What is point estimate?
A point estimate is a single

value (statistic) used to
estimate a population value
( p a r a m e t e r ) .
Ex:
ESTIMATION PROCESS
Population Random Sample
Mean
Mean, , is  
 X = 50
unknown
 Ex:
 
 
Sample 
 The scores of 50 students of mid test value
  Identify the target parameter and the point
 estimator if 10 randomly choosen of student!

The scores of 50 students of mid test value Identify
the target parameter and the point estimator if 10 Randomly
randomly chosen of student! chosen
55  71  76  77  85  ...  96
xˆ  x  E ( x)     81.5
10
(55  81,5)2  (71  81,5)2  ...  (96  81,5)2
s  E(s )   
2 2 2
 146,056
9
39  48  63  ....  97  99
  79,98 How about population ?
50
(39  79,98)2  (48  79,98)2  ..... (97  79,98)2  (99  79,98)2
 
2
 152,387
49
8- 12
Central Limit Theorem

For a population with a mean  and a variance 2
the sampling distribution of the means of all possible
samples of size n generated from the population will be
approximately normally distributed.
The standard error of the This approximation improves

mean is the standard with larger samples.
deviation of the standard The mean of the sampling
deviation of the sample distribution equal to m and
means given as: the variance equal to 2/n.
x = 
n Central Limit Theorem
8- 13
Sample means
follow the normal the underlying population
probability follows the normal
distribution under distribution
two conditions:
OR
the sample size is large

enough even when the
underlying population
may be nonnormal
Sample Means
8- 14
X 
To determine the probability z
that a sample mean falls s n
within a particular region,
use
Use  in place of s if the population

standard deviation is known.
Sample Means
8- 15
Suppose the mean selling

price of a gallon of gasoline
in the United States is $1.30.
Further, assume the
distribution is positively
skewed, with a standard
deviation of $0.28. What is
the probability of selecting a
sample of 35 gasoline
stations and finding the
sample mean within $.08?
Example 2
8- 16
Step One : Find the z-values corresponding to

$1.22 and $1.38. These are the two points within
$0.08 of the population mean.
X  $1.38  $1.30
z   1.69
s n $0.28 35
X  $1.22  $1.30
z   1.69
s n $0.28 35
Example 2 continued
8- 17
Step Two: determine the probability of a z-value

between -1.69 and 1.69.
P(1.69  z  1.69)  2(.4545)  .9090
We would expect about 91

percent of the sample
means to be within $0.08 of
the population mean.
Example 2 continued
8- 18
Ilustrasi sampel mean yang diketahui anggotanya
Angka keberhasilan mahasiswa Statistika 15 orang siswa tahun

pertama di UGM yang dipilih secara acak dari suatu angkatan
tertentu sebagai berikut: 2,30; 2,60; 3,10; 1,90; 2,10; 3,40; 2,10;
2,70; 2,00; 1,80; 2,90; 2,40; 2,60; 3,60 dan 2,10. (a) Berapa
persen mahasiswa yang memiliki nilai (IPK) kurang dari 3,00;
(b) Berapa persen mahasiswa yang memiliki nilai (IPK) lebih
dari 2,90 dan (c) berapa persen yang memiliki nilai (IPK)
antara 2,50 hingga 3,80
8- 19
No Nilai (x) (x- x) (x-x )2

1 2,30 -0,20667 0,042711
Mencari nilai Rata-
2 2,60 0,093333 0,008711 rata/mean ( x ) dan standar
3 3,10 0,593333 0,352044 deviasi /s
4 1,90 -0,60667 0,368044
5 2,10 -0,40667 0,165378
6 3,40 0,893333 0,798044
  )
7 2,10 -0,40667 0,165378

2
x x
8 2,70 0,193333 0,037378
s2 
9 2.00 -0,50667 0,256711 n 1
10 1,80 -0,70667 0,499378
11 2,90 0,393333 0,154711
12 2,40 -0,10667 0,011378
13 2,60 0,093333 0,008711 s s 2
14 3,60 1,093333 1,195378
15 2,10 -0,40667 0,165378
Jumlah: 37,60 Jumlah: 4,229333
2
s = 4,229333 / 14
Rata-rata ( x) = 37,60 / 15
= 0,302095
= 2,506667 s = 0,549632
8- 20
Menghitung Z-value Z
 x  x)
s n
3,00  2,51 0,49

Z   0,23
0,55 15 2,13
a. Persen mahasiswa yang memiliki nilai (IPK) kurang dari 3 ,00 berarti P(x <
3,00) atau dalam nilai Z-value P (Z< 0,23) adalah 1-P (Z ≥ 0,23). Dari tabel
distribusi normal diperoleh P(Z ≥ 0,23) = 0,409, sehingga P(Z<0,23)=1-
0,409 = 0,591.
Jadi mahasiswa statitika UGM yang memiliki nilai (IPK) kurang dari 3
sebanyak 59,10%
8- 21
2,90  2,51 0.39

Z   0,18
0,55 15 2,13
b. Persen mahasiswa yang memiliki nilai
lebih dari 2,90 berarti P(X > 2,90).
P(X > 2,90) = 1- P(X ≤ 2,90) = 1- P(Z
≤ 0,18)
= 1- 0,5714 = 0,4286 atau 42, 86% 2,50  2,51  0.01
Z   0,005
0,55 15 2,13
c. Persen mahasiswa yang memiliki nilai antara 2,50
hingga 3,80 berarti P(2,50 ≤ X ≤ 3,80). xx
P(2,50 ≤ X ≤ 3,80) = P(-0,005 ≤ Z ≤ 0,61) Z
s n
karena distribusi simetris sehingga
P(Z ≤0,005) + P(Z ≤ 0,61) = 0,0040 + 0,2291
= 0,2331 3,80  2,51 1,29
= 23,31% Z   0,61
0,55 15 2,13
CRITERIA FOR EVALUATING BEST
ESTIMATOR
A. Unbiased estimators
X or X̂ and S 2  and 2
These random variables are These fixed constants are
examples of statistics or examples of parameter or
estimators targets
X or X̂ Is unbiased estimator of  If E X )orE (Xˆ )  
E(S2)=2
True µ = E(X)
Bias = E(x) - µ
bias
µ E(X)
B. Efficient estimators (minimum variance)
Estimators called efficient if the distribution of an
estimator to be highly concentrated or have a small
variance than another.
 2a
 2b  2b<  2a
b efficient
estimator than a
Efficiency of u relatif to w  Var (w) / Var (u)

C. Consistent estimator
One of conditions that makes an estimator consistent is:
If its bias and variance both appraoach zero
Lim E(Xn) = µ Lim Var(Xn) = 0

and
n ∞ n ∞
NOTE: Consisteny is more abstract, because it

defined as a limit: A consistent estimator is one
that concentrates in a narrower and narrower band
aroud its sample size n increases indefinitely .
Conclusion of Point Estimation
1. Provides a single value

• Based on observations from one
sample
2. Gives no information about how
close the value is to the unknown
population parameter
3. Example: Sample mean x = 3 is
point estimate of unknown
population mean
EXERCISE
1. Suppose each of the 200.000 adults in city under study has
eaten a number X of fast-food meals in the past week.
However, a residential phone survey on a week-day
afternoon misses those who are working-the very people
most likely to eat fast foods. As shown in the table below,
this leaves small population who would respond, especialy
small for higer values of X.
X= Number of Whole target Subpopulation
Meals (population) responding
Freq. Real. Freq. Freq. Real. Freq.

f f/N f f/N
0 100.000 0,50 38,000 0,76
1 40.000 0,20 6,000 0,12
2 40.000 0,20 4,000 0,08
3 20.000 0,10 2,000 0,04
Total 200.000 1,00 50.000 1,00
a. Find the mean µ of the whole targets population?
b. Find the sample mean  of the subpopulation who would
respond?
c. What is the estimator efficient or unbiased?
2. Suppose that a surveyor is traying to determine the area of a
rectangular field, in which the measured length X and the
measuered width Y are independent random variabeles that
fluctuate widely about the true values, according to the
following probability distribution
X P(X) Y P(Y)
8 0.25 4 0.50
10 0.25 6 0.50
11 0.50
The calculte area A = XY of course is a random variable, and
is used to estimate the true area. If the true length and width
are 10 and 5, respectively,
a. Is X an unbiased estimator of the true length?
b. Is Y an unbiased estimator of the true width?
c. Is A an unbiased estimator of the true area?

Estimasi Statistik

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Estimasi Statistik

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Estimasi Statistik

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

KULIAH STATISTIKA 2

RABU, 7 Oktober 2020

Estimate Population with Sample

A point estimate is a single

Central Limit Theorem

The standard error of the This approximation improves

the sample size is large

Use  in place of s if the population

Suppose the mean selling

Step One : Find the z-values corresponding to

Step Two: determine the probability of a z-value

P(1.69  z  1.69)  2(.4545)  .9090

We would expect about 91

Ilustrasi sampel mean yang diketahui anggotanya

Angka keberhasilan mahasiswa Statistika 15 orang siswa tahun

No Nilai (x) (x- x) (x-x )2

3,00  2,51 0,49

2,90  2,51 0.39

X or X̂ Is unbiased estimator of  If E X )orE (Xˆ )  

Efficiency of u relatif to w  Var (w) / Var (u)

Lim E(Xn) = µ Lim Var(Xn) = 0

NOTE: Consisteny is more abstract, because it

1. Provides a single value

Freq. Real. Freq. Freq. Real. Freq.

You might also like