Pharmaceutical Valuation Methodology & Case Studies: Karl Heinz Koch European Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceutical Valuation Methodology & Case Studies: Karl Heinz Koch European Pharmaceuticals
Pharmaceutical Valuation Methodology & Case Studies: Karl Heinz Koch European Pharmaceuticals
Valuation
Methodology &
Case Studies
Karl Heinz Koch
European Pharmaceuticals
21 February 2008 Slide 2
Content
Case Studies:
Valuation Overview
Static Dynamic
Price per share relative to Earnings per share, the so-called "PER"
Pros:
"Simple" (no adjustments needed)
Cons:
Misleading due to lack of comparability
Price per share relative to Cash Flow per share, so-called "P/CF"
Pros:
More accurate cross-company comparability within a sector (assuming
similar capital structures)
Cons:
Not as widely used due to lack of information that spots "cash" from
"non-cash" items
Pros:
Values assets of a company by looking at the whole enterprise (hence
the term "enterprise value") independent of the capital structure of
the company (which is different from just looking at "equity" in the
case of geared valuation methods); (known as Proposition 1 by Miller
and Modigliani)
Cons:
Imperfections of markets mean that companies are not always able to
restructure their balance sheet at will or at negligible cost
Pros:
Removes the often significant distortion due to different capital
structures
Cons:
Not as widely used due to adjustments needed ("can not be easily
commanded on traditional financial services such as Bloomberg")
Pros:
Allows valuation of companies with no near-term sustainable cash
flow streams (or even loss making companies, i.e. biotechnology)
Cons:
A large part of the NPV is driven by the growth rates in the terminal
value which are difficult to predict
25
20
+10x
Multiple (x)
15
PER Median 12.2x
-4x
10
0
Sanofi
BMS
Lilly
GSK
Merck Inc.
Abbott
AZN
JNJ
Pfizer
Wyeth
Novartis
Lundbeck
SGP
Novo
Merck KGaA
Roche
PER 2008 EV/EBITDA 2008 EV/Sales 2008
21 February 2008 Slide 12
12
10
8
6
Multiple (x)
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Sanofi
GSK
BMS
Lilly
Merck Inc.
Abbott
AZN
Wyeth
Pfizer
JNJ
Lundbeck
SGP
Novo
Novartis
Merck KGaA
Roche
PER '08E vs median EV/EBITDA '08E vs median EV/Sales '08E vs median
21 February 2008 Slide 13
Much of a stock's value is driven by future drug revenues, which are difficult
to predict accurately
A. they tend to penalize innovative companies since they are the ones that
have to absorb the high cost of large-scale clinical studies and market
introduction;
B. they favor companies that lack new product flow, not least as profitability
measures tend to rise in the short term due to a lack of (product) investment
opportunities
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
DN
A)
Ba
ye
r
SG
Ab P
bo
tt
W
M e ye
rck th
&
Co
No .
No v
vo arti
No s
rd
isk
Eli
Lil
ly
AZ
N
Patent losses - The Only Certainty
GS
K
BM
S
Sa P
no f
fi- iz er
Av
en
tis
JN
J
21 February 2008
Slide 14
generic exposure vs pipeline potential (as % of sales)
Ro
ch
e(
in
c.
pr
op
.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
DN
A)
Ba
ye
r
SG
Ab P
bo
tt
Wy
Me e
rck th
&
Co
No .
No v
vo arti
No s
rd
isk
Eli
The Difference is in The Balance
Lil
ly
AZ
N
Sa
no G
fi- SK
Av
en
tis
BM
S
Pf
iz e
r
JN
J
21 February 2008
Slide 15
21 February 2008 Slide 16
50%
40%
30%
% of 2006 sales
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
y
S
s
t is
r
K
P
r
J
.
isk
h
tt
il l
iz e
)
ye
rti
Co
BM
JN
SG
GS
et
AZ
NA
bo
en
L
rd
va
Ba
Pf
Wy
&
.D
Eli
Ab
Av
No
No
rck
op
fi-
o
Me
no
v
pr
No
Sa
c.
in
e(
ch
Ro
40%
30%
20%
% of 2006 sales
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
ly
S
tis
r
tis
K
J
.
isk
h
A)
tt
iz e
ye
Co
BM
JN
GS
SG
Lil
et
AZ
bo
ar
en
DN
rd
Ba
Pf
Wy
&
v
Eli
Ab
av
No
No
rck
op
fi-
vo
Pr
Me
no
No
cl .
Sa
in
e(
ch
Ro
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E
8.0%
6%
6.0%
4%
4.0% 3% 3%3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
2.0%
0%
0.0%
0% 0%
-2.0%
-2%
-4.0%
-6.0% -5%
Novartis Roche Sanofi-aventis GlaxoSmithKline AstraZeneca
Big Pharma
BioPharma
Biotech
21 February 2008 Slide 21
75
70
-20%
65
60
55
50
-30%
45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NOVARTIS 'R'
REL.PERF. TO DRUGS EURO
-10%
Source: DATASTREAM
21 February 2008 Slide 24
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E
Novartis Branded Rx sales growth (l.c.) US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 25
A Bird's View
Stars Cash
Cows
New Drugs Growth
Lucentis
Gleevec Femara
Diovan
Exjade
Certican Exelon
Enablex
Exforge Sebivo Myfortic
Zometa
Aclast Xolair Stalevo Elidel
Eucreas a Tasigna Foradil Sandostatin LAR
Tekturna Lescol
Pipeline Drugs
100%
90%
80%
70%
Others
60%
50%
FTY720
40% QAB149
agomelatine
30%
Lucentis Lotrel
20% Exforge Diovan
Eucreas (G) Femara
10% Tekturna Lamisil
Tasigna Trileptal
agomelatine Zometa
0% Aclasta
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of 2007 Incremental potential of
potential as % of 2007 sales base portfolio as % of
sales 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 27
20,000
Sales in USD mn
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E 2012E
Annual sales of drugs losing patents
Annual sales of new drugs
Annual sales of base portfolio (not new, not generic)
21 February 2008 Slide 28
100%
1013
90% 16357
80% 1253
EBIT vs EV contribution
70% 22320
60%
50%
40% 7217
30% 55896
20%
10%
0%
EBIT EV
50 44
40
30
20
10 6.3x 6.5x
-10
-20
-30 -24
Novartis Pfizer
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E
US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.) US/EU Generic (Gx) sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 32
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E
US/EU Generic (Gx) sales growth (l.c.) Novartis Generic sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 33
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ROCHE HOLDINGS GSH.
Rel to MSCI Pharma
Source: DATASTREAM
21 February 2008 Slide 35
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E
Substantially Scalable...
"Stars" "Cash
Cows"
Growth
Tarceva
Bonviva (ex.-US)
Herceptin
(ex-US)/Jap)
Xeloda
Avastin
(ex.-US/Jap) Mabthera
New Drugs
Valcyte
(ex-US/Jap)
Pegasys
Bondronat CellCept
Fuzeon Tamiflu
Pipeline Drugs
Mircera
Actemra Dilatrend
(RA) ocrelizumab EPO
Xenical Kytril
(ex-US) (ex-US)
Pertuzumab
(ex-US) Viracept/ Rocephin
HPV16
Fortovase
R1583
(diabetes) R1626 Accutane
(HepC)
R1658
(dyslipidemia) "Dogs"
"Pipeline"
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% DNA
50%
40% Other
30% Mircera
M/ocralizum ab
20% Actem ra
CellCept
10% Avastin NeoRecorm on DNA
0% Dilatrend Roche
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of Increm ental potential
potential as % of 2007 2007 sales of base portfolio as %
sales of 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 38
20,000
15,000
Sales in CHF mn
10,000
5,000
0
2002 2003E 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
-5,000
"Equity value" of underlying Roche (CHF mn) 115566 115566 115566 115566
Stars Cash
Cow s
Growth
New drugs
Tachosil
Om naris
Angiom ax
Pipeline drugs
Instanyl
Dogs
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Others
30% Alvesco Protonix/
+ FDC pantoprazole
20%
10% Om naris ?
0%
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of Increm ental potential of
potential as % of 2007 2007 sales base portfolio as % of
sales 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 43
Pipeline Potential (Portfolio replacement rate) 50% or more >= 30% - 50% >= 15% - 30% 0 to 15% 0
Generic Risk (Portfolio rate at risk) <= 10% >= 10% - 20% >= 20% - 30% >= 30% - 50% above 50%
Incremtental potential of
> 36% 26% - 35% 16% - 25% 0% - 15% < 0%
underlying portfolio
US sales of 60% or
Geographical Exposure US sales of > 45% US sales of > 30% US sales of > 15% US sales of < 15%
more
100% of sales from > 75% of sales from > 50% of sales from > 25% of sales from < 25% of sales from
Business Diversification
prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs
(% of sales derived from prescription drugs) -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
21 February 2008 Slide 44
12.0%
10.0% 0.75%
0.56% 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 0.8%
8.0%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4%
6.0%
4.0%
Risk free Market risk premium Company spec. Risk premium Pipeline risk premium
21 February 2008 Slide 45
Remember ... Valuation is Not Strictly a Science But More Like an Art !
"Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted"
(Albert Einstein)