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Pharmaceutical Valuation Methodology & Case Studies: Karl Heinz Koch European Pharmaceuticals

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Pharmaceutical

Valuation
Methodology &
Case Studies
Karl Heinz Koch
European Pharmaceuticals
21 February 2008 Slide 2

Content

Valuation Methodologies - An Overview 3

Static Valuation Methodologies (Pros and Cons) 4-8

Dynamic Valuation Methodologies (Pros and Cons) 9

Vontobel Pharma Valuation ("Net Portfolio Add-On Potential") 10-21

Case Studies:

- Special Situations (i.e. Roche, Novartis) 22-39

- Nycomed - "Life Beyond Pantoprazole" 40-44


21 February 2008 Slide 3

Valuation Overview

Static Dynamic

Geared De-Geared Discounted Economic


(e.g. P/E, (e.g. EV/x) Cash Flow Value Added
P/CF) (DCF) (EVA)

P/E rel., EV/x rel.,


PEG EV/x/g
21 February 2008 Slide 4

Static "Geared" Valuation Methods (1)

 Price per share relative to Earnings per share, the so-called "PER"

 Pros:
"Simple" (no adjustments needed)

 Widely used because they are "simple"

 Cons:
 Misleading due to lack of comparability

 Different accounting philosophies (shareholder focus versus tax


authorities)

 Different balance sheet structures ("Gearing")


21 February 2008 Slide 5

Gearing affects P/E ratios (PER)

USD million Company A Company B


Market Capitalisation 100 50
Level of debt 0 50
Cost of debt (interest rate p.a.) 12% 12%

Earnings before interests and taxes (EBIT) 10 10


Net interest 0 6
Pre-tax profit (PTP) 10 4
Taxes (@ 35%) 3.5 1.4
Net profit 6.5 2.6

PER 15.4x 19.2x


21 February 2008 Slide 6

Static "Geared" Valuation Methods (2)

 Price per share relative to Cash Flow per share, so-called "P/CF"

 Pros:
More accurate cross-company comparability within a sector (assuming
similar capital structures)

 More accurate assessment of "cash" operating performance

 Cons:
 Not as widely used due to lack of information that spots "cash" from
"non-cash" items

 Insufficiently accounts for minority interests, capital requirements and


is even more sensitive to "gearing" than a PER
21 February 2008 Slide 7

Static "De-Geared" Valuation Methods (1)

 Enterprise Value (EV) relative to "Revenues" per share

 Pros:
Values assets of a company by looking at the whole enterprise (hence
the term "enterprise value") independent of the capital structure of
the company (which is different from just looking at "equity" in the
case of geared valuation methods); (known as Proposition 1 by Miller
and Modigliani)

 Allows for a distinction between a company's "core" and "non-core"


assets (widely used by so-called "company raiders")

 Cons:
 Imperfections of markets mean that companies are not always able to
restructure their balance sheet at will or at negligible cost

 Strong assumptions built into EV methodology: tax neutrality between


equity and debt,
21 February 2008 Slide 8

Static "De-Geared" Valuation Methods (2)

 Enterprise Value (EV) = Market Capitalisation + Value of net debt


(average for the year) - Estimated Value of "non-core" assets

 Pros:
Removes the often significant distortion due to different capital
structures

 Allows to value individual businesses

 Cons:
 Not as widely used due to adjustments needed ("can not be easily
commanded on traditional financial services such as Bloomberg")

 Sometimes difficult assumptions needed to value non-core businesses


and impact of tax wedges due to imperfect capital markets
21 February 2008 Slide 9

Dynamic Valuation Method - DCF

 Discounted Cash Flow Model

 Pros:
Allows valuation of companies with no near-term sustainable cash
flow streams (or even loss making companies, i.e. biotechnology)

 Appropriate for businesses with discretionary cost structures and long


product cycles, such as pharmaceuticals

 Cons:
 A large part of the NPV is driven by the growth rates in the terminal
value which are difficult to predict

 Many businesses do not lend themselves to the long-term predictions


needed for a DCF model (though pharmaceutical and biotechnology
companies do)
21 February 2008 Slide 10

Vontobel Pharmaceutical Valuation Model based on


"Net Portfolio Add-On Potential"
21 February 2008 Slide 11

Relative Valuation Multiples for Pharmaceuticals

25

20
+10x
Multiple (x)

15
PER Median 12.2x
-4x
10

0
Sanofi

BMS

Lilly
GSK

Merck Inc.

Abbott
AZN

JNJ
Pfizer

Wyeth

Novartis
Lundbeck

SGP

Novo
Merck KGaA

Roche
PER 2008 EV/EBITDA 2008 EV/Sales 2008
21 February 2008 Slide 12

Large Variances in Relative Valuation Multiples

12
10
8
6
Multiple (x)

4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Sanofi

GSK

BMS

Lilly

Merck Inc.

Abbott
AZN

Wyeth
Pfizer

JNJ
Lundbeck

SGP

Novo
Novartis

Merck KGaA

Roche
PER '08E vs median EV/EBITDA '08E vs median EV/Sales '08E vs median
21 February 2008 Slide 13

Why Has Valuation Analysis Been Poor in the Past?

 Relative Earnings Multiples (geared or de-geared) Can Be Misleading


because:

 Much of a stock's value is driven by future drug revenues, which are difficult
to predict accurately

 A. they tend to penalize innovative companies since they are the ones that
have to absorb the high cost of large-scale clinical studies and market
introduction;

 B. they favor companies that lack new product flow, not least as profitability
measures tend to rise in the short term due to a lack of (product) investment
opportunities

 Furthermore, relative valuation multiples do not take into account important


quality differences because "growth is not simply growth" and only
sustainable growth driven by new products determines valuations in the
sector.
generic exposure as % of sales
Ro
ch
e(
in
c.
pr
op
.

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%

DN
A)
Ba
ye
r
SG
Ab P
bo
tt
W
M e ye
rck th
&
Co
No .
No v
vo arti
No s
rd
isk
Eli
Lil
ly
AZ
N
Patent losses - The Only Certainty

GS
K
BM
S
Sa P
no f
fi- iz er
Av
en
tis
JN
J
21 February 2008
Slide 14
generic exposure vs pipeline potential (as % of sales)
Ro
ch
e(
in
c.
pr
op
.

0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
DN
A)
Ba
ye
r
SG
Ab P
bo
tt
Wy
Me e
rck th
&
Co
No .
No v
vo arti
No s
rd
isk
Eli
The Difference is in The Balance

Lil
ly
AZ
N
Sa
no G
fi- SK
Av
en
tis
BM
S
Pf
iz e
r
JN
J
21 February 2008
Slide 15
21 February 2008 Slide 16

Winners And Losers ... Broadly Speaking (Phase 1-3)

50%

40%

30%
% of 2006 sales

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

y
S
s

t is

r
K

P
r

J
.

isk
h

tt
il l

iz e
)

ye
rti

Co

BM

JN
SG
GS

et

AZ
NA

bo

en
L
rd
va

Ba

Pf
Wy
&
.D

Eli

Ab

Av
No
No

rck
op

fi-
o
Me

no
v
pr

No

Sa
c.
in
e(
ch
Ro

Net portfolio "add-on" potential (pipeline potential - generic exposure)


21 February 2008 Slide 17

Winners And Losers ... Strictly Speaking (Phase 3)

40%

30%

20%
% of 2006 sales

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%

-40%

ly
S
tis

r
tis
K

J
.

isk

h
A)

tt

iz e
ye

Co

BM

JN
GS

SG

Lil
et

AZ
bo
ar

en
DN

rd
Ba

Pf
Wy
&
v

Eli
Ab

av
No
No

rck
op

fi-
vo
Pr

Me

no
No
cl .

Sa
in
e(
ch
Ro

Net portfolio "add-on" potential (pipeline potential - generic exposure)


21 February 2008 Slide 18

Big Pharmaceuticals - An Industry Fallen From Grace

18%

16%

14%
12%
10%

8%

6%
4%

2%

0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E

US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.)


21 February 2008 Slide 19

3-Phase DCF Model - FCF Growth EU Universe

8.0%
6%
6.0%
4%
4.0% 3% 3%3% 3% 3% 3%
2% 2%
2.0%
0%
0.0%
0% 0%
-2.0%
-2%
-4.0%

-6.0% -5%
Novartis Roche Sanofi-aventis GlaxoSmithKline AstraZeneca

1st phase 2nd phase terminal


21 February 2008 Slide 20

Healthcare Continuum - Risk Perceptions

Big Pharma

BioPharma

Biotech
21 February 2008 Slide 21

Assessing Quality of Growth - Appropriate Discount Rate


Low risk (++)/High risk (--) ++ + 0 - --
Premium/Discount per quality
-0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
characteristic
++ (significantly + (better than sector - (w orse than sector -- (significantly
0 (sector average)
better than sector) average) average) w orse than sector)
Pipeline Potential or Portfolio
Replacement Rate (Sum of probability-
w eighted peak sales of all pipeline > 50% 40% - 50% 30% - 40% 20% - 30% 0% - 20%
projects expressed as % of current
sales)
Generic Exposure or Portfolio Rate
at Risk (Sum of all sales losing patent
10% 10% - 20% 20% - 30% 30% - 50% above 50%
protection in the coming 5 years
expressed as % of sales)
Incremental potential of base
portfolio (Sales of the underlying
> 36% 26% - 35% 16% - 25% 0% - 15% < 0%
base portfolio - not new , not at generic
risk - as % of current sales)
No leadership
Therapeutic Leadership (Franchise
according to LODH No notable
strengths indicating high sustainability 3 leadership 2 leadership 1 leadership
definition, but among therapeutic franchise
of future cash flow s - Minimum 10% in positions positions position
top 5 in 2 or more strength
USD 10 bn+ market segment)
areas
Geographical Exposure (% of
US revenues of US revenues of US revenues of US revenues of
revenues in the profitable and higher > 60% US revenues
45% - 60% 30% - 45% 15% - 30% 0% - 15%
grow th US market)
Business Diversification (% of
revenues derived from prescription 75% - 99% 50% - 74% 25% - 49% < 25%
100% Rx revenues
medicines (not vaccines, not blood Rx revenues Rx revenues Rx revenues Rx revenues
plasma)

TOTAL COMPANY-SPECIFIC RISK


(PREMIUM (-)/ DISCOUNT (+) Aggregate of Aggregate of
Aggregate of
(Negative risk premium is a bonus and premium quality discount quality
average quality on
increases the value by low ering the characteristics on -1.2% 1.2% characteristics on
discount rate
overall discount rate (Rf + Rm). discount rate discount rate
0%
Positive risk premium low ers the value -2.4% 2.4%
by raising the overall discount rate)
21 February 2008 Slide 22

Special Situation - Novartis "Structurally Flawed" (Buy - PT: CHF 68)


21 February 2008 Slide 23

Novartis relative to MSCI Euro Pharma Index


27/2/08
80

75

70

-20%
65

60

55

50
-30%

45
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NOVARTIS 'R'
REL.PERF. TO DRUGS EURO
-10%
Source: DATASTREAM
21 February 2008 Slide 24

Novartis Branded Rx Outperforms a Declining Industry

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E

Novartis Branded Rx sales growth (l.c.) US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 25

A Bird's View

Stars Cash
Cows
New Drugs Growth

Lucentis
Gleevec Femara
Diovan
Exjade
Certican Exelon
Enablex
Exforge Sebivo Myfortic
Zometa
Aclast Xolair Stalevo Elidel
Eucreas a Tasigna Foradil Sandostatin LAR
Tekturna Lescol
Pipeline Drugs

AGO Optaflu Neoral


LBH Tegretol
Tekt. QAB RAD FTY720 Miacalcic
Menveo Clozaril
FDC 149 AS (MS)
QAB Men B Lotrel Voltaren Lamisil
SOM LBQ Visudyne
FDC EPO albuf Zelnorm
NVA Famvir
Mycograb Trileptal
? ACZ Aurograb Dogs
AEB071

Cost Phase Return Phase Market Share


21 February 2008 Slide 26

Structurally Sound ...

100%

90%
80%

70%
Others
60%

50%
FTY720
40% QAB149
agomelatine
30%
Lucentis Lotrel
20% Exforge Diovan
Eucreas (G) Femara
10% Tekturna Lamisil
Tasigna Trileptal
agomelatine Zometa
0% Aclasta
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of 2007 Incremental potential of
potential as % of 2007 sales base portfolio as % of
sales 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 27

New Product Cycle - "Show Me The Money"

20,000
Sales in USD mn

15,000

10,000

5,000

0
2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E 2012E
Annual sales of drugs losing patents
Annual sales of new drugs
Annual sales of base portfolio (not new, not generic)
21 February 2008 Slide 28

Valuation And Earnings Discrepancy

100%
1013
90% 16357

80% 1253
EBIT vs EV contribution

70% 22320

60%
50%
40% 7217
30% 55896
20%
10%
0%
EBIT EV

Pharmaceuticals & Vaccines Sandoz Consumer Health


21 February 2008 Slide 29

Back-Integrated Sum-of-Parts (SOP) Valuation


in million USD 2007 2008E
Novartis share price (in CHF) 50.8 50.8
Novartis share price in USD (Fx: 1.0) 50 50
Number of shares (diluted) * 2330 2287
Market Capitalisation 116500 114350

Net Cash * 7400 11457

Cash value of Roche equity holding (in USD) 11193 11193


Roche bearer share price (in CHF) 210 210
Nbe of Roche bearer shares owned by Novartis 53.3 53.3

Enterprise Value (EV) 97907 91700

Sandoz (generics) sales 7169 7972


Mean peer EV/Sales multiple 2.8x 2.6x
Implied EV (Sandoz) 20073 20726

Consumer Health (OTC, animal, vision) sales 5426 5842


Mean peer EV/Sales multiple 3.2x 3.0x
Implied EV (Consumer Health) 17363 17526

Corporate overhead EBITDA >638 >468


Mean peer EV/cost 5.0x 5.0x
Implied EV (Corporate overhead) >3190 >2340

Implied EV of Pharmaceuticals & Vaccines 63661 55788

Pharmaceutical sales 24025 25277


Vaccines (& Diagnostics) sales 1452 1646
Total Pharmaceuticals & Vaccines/Dx sales 25477 26923

Pharmaceutical EBITDA 7688 8368


Vaccine (& Diagnostics) EBITDA 448 485
Total Pharmaceutical and Vaccine/Dx EBITDA 8136 8853

Implied Pharmaceuticals & Vaccine/Dx EV/Sales (x) 2.5x 2.1x


Mean peer sector EV/Sales multiple 3.5x 2.8x
Discount Novartis versus peers 828% 826%
Implied Pharmaceuticals & Vaccine EV/EBITDA (x) 7.8x 6.3x
Mean peer sector EV/EBITDA multiple 11.5x 8.5x
Discount Novartis versus peers 832% 826%
21 February 2008 Slide 30

Novartis - A Takeover Target?

50 44
40

30

20

10 6.3x 6.5x

-10

-20

-30 -24
Novartis Pfizer

Net add-on potential (%) EV/EBITDA (x)


21 February 2008 Slide 31

Big Pharma's Pain is Generic's Gain

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E

US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.) US/EU Generic (Gx) sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 32

Market Does Not Appear to Value Sandoz (Generics)


Due To Potential "Conflict of Interest"

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E

US/EU Generic (Gx) sales growth (l.c.) Novartis Generic sales growth (l.c.)
21 February 2008 Slide 33

Special Situation - Roche "High on DNA" (Buy - PT: CHF 235)


21 February 2008 Slide 34

Roche NVES relative to MSCI European Pharmaceuticals


260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
ROCHE HOLDINGS GSH.
Rel to MSCI Pharma

Source: DATASTREAM
21 February 2008 Slide 35

Roche Rx Substantially Outperforms Peers

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008E 2010E

US/EU Big Pharma Rx sales growth (l.c.) Roche Pharmaceutical Sales


21 February 2008 Slide 36

Substantially Scalable...

"Stars" "Cash
Cows"

Growth
Tarceva
Bonviva (ex.-US)
Herceptin
(ex-US)/Jap)
Xeloda
Avastin
(ex.-US/Jap) Mabthera
New Drugs

Valcyte
(ex-US/Jap)
Pegasys
Bondronat CellCept
Fuzeon Tamiflu
Pipeline Drugs

Mircera
Actemra Dilatrend
(RA) ocrelizumab EPO
Xenical Kytril
(ex-US) (ex-US)
Pertuzumab
(ex-US) Viracept/ Rocephin
HPV16
Fortovase
R1583
(diabetes) R1626 Accutane
(HepC)
R1658
(dyslipidemia) "Dogs"
"Pipeline"

Cost Phase Return Phase Market Share


21 February 2008 Slide 37

Structurally Sound ...

100%
90%
80%
70%
60% DNA
50%
40% Other

30% Mircera
M/ocralizum ab
20% Actem ra
CellCept
10% Avastin NeoRecorm on DNA
0% Dilatrend Roche
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of Increm ental potential
potential as % of 2007 2007 sales of base portfolio as %
sales of 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 38

New Product Cycle - "Show Me The Money"

20,000

15,000
Sales in CHF mn

10,000

5,000

0
2002 2003E 2004 2005 2006E 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E
-5,000

Annual sales of drugs losing patents


Annual sales of new drugs
Annual sales of base portfolio (not new, not generic)
21 February 2008 Slide 39

Back-Integrated Sum-of-Parts (SOP) Valuation


Price Nbe of shares Market Cap
Roche NVES + Bearer
NVES 191 699 133509
Bearer 210 160 33616
Total in CHF mn 167125

Genentech (DNA) (in USD) 81 1070 86670


FX 1.0
DNA in CHF mn 86670
Roche ownership (56%) 48535

Chugai (Japan) 1087 551 598937


Fx 1.01
Chugai in CHF mn 5930
Roche ownership (51%) 3024

"Equity value" of underlying Roche (CHF mn) 115566 115566 115566 115566

2005 2006 2007 2008E


Net cash owned by Roche (90% of total) 8163 12286 15041 18619
Enterprise value (EV; CHF mn) 107403 103279 100525 96946

2005 2006 2007 2008E


Roche Rx and Dx Sales 23,962 28,101 30,918 32,331
Implied sales multiples 4.5x 3.7x 3.3x 3.0x
Global sector mean 3.8x 3.6x 3.5x 2.8x
Premium (Discount) 18% 2% 87% 7%

Roche Rx and Dx EBITDA 7796 9035 10569 11513


Implied EBITDA multiple 13.8x 11.4x 9.5x 8.4x
Global sector mean 12.6x 11.5x 10.5x 8.5x
Premium (Discount) 9% 81% 89% 81%
21 February 2008 Slide 40

Nycomed "Life After Pantoprazole"


21 February 2008 Slide 41

Preparing for Life Beyond Pantoprazole...

Stars Cash
Cow s
Growth
New drugs

Preotac Alvesc Bradley Pharm a

Tachosil
Om naris
Angiom ax
Pipeline drugs

Instanyl

ZyCom b Im agify Protonix


TransMID
Alvesco + LABA FDC

Dogs

Cost Phase Return Phase Market Share


21 February 2008 Slide 42

Overcoming the Pantoprazole Patent Overhang...

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Others
30% Alvesco Protonix/
+ FDC pantoprazole
20%
10% Om naris ?
0%
Risk adjusted pipeline Generic risk as % of Increm ental potential of
potential as % of 2007 2007 sales base portfolio as % of
sales 2007 sales (2007-12)
21 February 2008 Slide 43

Risk Profiling of Nycomed


Risk Grade 5 (low risk) 4 3 2 1 (high risk)

Pipeline Potential (Portfolio replacement rate) 50% or more >= 30% - 50% >= 15% - 30% 0 to 15% 0

(Sum of probability weighted value of


pipeline projects / current sales base)
-0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%

Generic Risk (Portfolio rate at risk) <= 10% >= 10% - 20% >= 20% - 30% >= 30% - 50% above 50%

(Sales at risk of losing patents in coming 5


years at 100% / current sales base)
-0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%

Incremtental potential of
> 36% 26% - 35% 16% - 25% 0% - 15% < 0%
underlying portfolio

(Sales of the underlying product portfolio -


not new, not at risk of patent loss - as % of -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
current sales)

No leadership and not


3 leaderships in 2 leaderships in 1 leaderships in No leadership +
among top 10 in 3
Therapeutic Leadership therapeutic groups of therapeutic groups of therapeutic groups of among top 10 in 3
therapeutic groups at
average size $10bn+ average size $10bn+ average size $10bn+ therapeutic groups
least

(Based on world market shares and serves


as an indicator of a company's success in -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
franchise building, ie., knowledge building)

US sales of 60% or
Geographical Exposure US sales of > 45% US sales of > 30% US sales of > 15% US sales of < 15%
more

(% of sales (direct and indirect -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%


sales) in the fast growing "free" US
market)

100% of sales from > 75% of sales from > 50% of sales from > 25% of sales from < 25% of sales from
Business Diversification
prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs prescription drugs

(% of sales derived from prescription drugs) -0.40% -0.20% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40%
21 February 2008 Slide 44

What Would an Appropriate Discount Rate for


Nycomed Be?

12.0%

10.0% 0.75%
0.56% 0.50% 0.50% 0.75% 0.75% 0.8%
8.0%
4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4%
6.0%

4.0%

2.0% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.50%

0.0% -0.7% -0.2% -0.3% -0.2%


-1.0%
-2.0%
Roche (7.5%) AZN (8.3%) Novartis GSK (8.95%) Sanofi- Nycomed
(8.8%) aventis (~10%)
(8.3%)

Risk free Market risk premium Company spec. Risk premium Pipeline risk premium
21 February 2008 Slide 45

Remember ... Valuation is Not Strictly a Science But More Like an Art !

"Not everything that can be counted counts and not everything that counts can be counted"
(Albert Einstein)

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