land

Article
Assessing the Extent of Historical, Current,
and Future Land Use Systems in Uganda
Majaliwa Gilbert Jackson Mwanjalolo 1 , Barasa Bernard 2, * , Mukwaya Isolo Paul 1 ,
Wanyama Joshua 3 , Kutegeka Sophie 4 , Nakyeyune Cotilda 4 , Nakileza Bob 1 , Diisi John 5 ,
Ssenyonjo Edward 5 and Nakangu Barbara 6
1 Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University P.O. Box 7062,
Kampala 256, Uganda; majaliwam@gmail.com (M.G.J.M.); pmukwaya@gmail.com (M.I.P.);
nakilezabob@gmail.com (N.B.)
2 Department of Geography and Social Studies, Kyambogo University P.O. Box 1, Kyambogo 256, Uganda
3 Department of Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering, Makerere University P.O. Box 7062, Kampala 256,
Uganda; wanyama2002@gmail.com
4 International Union for Conservation of Nature–Uganda P.O. Box 10950, Kampala 256, Uganda;
Sophie.KUTEGEKA@iucn.org (K.S.); Cotilda.Nakyeyune@iucn.org (N.C.)
5 National Forestry Authority, Ministry of Water and Environment P.O. Box 70863, Kampala 256, Uganda;
johndiisi@gmail.com (D.J.); senyonjo.edward@gmail.com (S.E.)
6 Makerere Institute of Social Research, Makerere P.O. Box 7062, Kampala 256, Uganda;
barbara.nakangu@gmail.com
* Correspondence: barasagis@gmail.com; Tel.: +256-701-712526




Received: 25 September 2018; Accepted: 27 October 2018; Published: 8 November 2018


Abstract: Sustainable land use systems planning and management requires a wider understanding
of the spatial extent and detailed human-ecosystem interactions astride any landscape. This study
assessed the extent of historical, current, and future land use systems in Uganda. The specific
objectives were to (i) characterize and assess the extent of historical and current land use systems,
and (ii) project future land use systems. The land use systems were defined and classified using
spatially explicit land use/cover layers for the years 1990 and 2015, while the future prediction
(for the year 2040) was determined using land use systems datasets for both years through a Markov
chain model. This study reveals a total of 29 classes of land use systems that can be broadly categorized
as follows: three of the land use systems are agricultural, five are under bushland, four under
forest, five under grasslands, two under impediments, three under wetlands, five under woodland,
one under open water and urban settlement respectively. The highest gains in the land amongst
the land use systems were experienced in subsistence agricultural land and grasslands protected,
while the highest losses were seen in grasslands unprotected and woodland/forest with low livestock
densities. By 2040, subsistence agricultural land is likely to increase by about 1% while tropical high
forest with livestock activities is expected to decrease by 0.2%, and woodland/forest unprotected
by 0.07%. High demand for agricultural and settlement land are mainly responsible for land use
systems patchiness. This study envisages more land degradation and disasters such as landslides,
floods, droughts, and so forth to occur in the country, causing more deaths and loss of property,
if the rate at which land use systems are expanding is not closely monitored and regulated in the
near future.

Keywords: land use systems; land change modeler; prediction; Uganda

Land 2018, 7, 132; doi:10.3390/land7040132 www.mdpi.com/journal/land

Land 2018, 7, 132 2 of 17

1. Introduction
Human activities, especially the conversion and degradation of habitats, are causing global
biodiversity declines [1]. The notable activities include the cutting down of trees, charcoal burning and
poor farming methods, among others, which undermine the functionality of ecosystems [2]. The rapid
conversion of natural vegetation, for example, to farmlands, could be attributed to farming techniques
and agronomic approaches that aim at modern agricultural intensification [3]. For instance, in the
Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the agricultural expansion through shifting
cultivation is the main proximate cause of deforestation [4]. In the northern portion of the Brazilian
Atlantic Forest, generally 76% of the households use fuelwood regularly and consume on average
686 kg/person/year of tree biomass; poorer people, however, consume 961 kg/person/year [5,6].
Anthropogenic land use activities (such as management of croplands, forests, grasslands, and
wetlands) and changes in land use/cover (such as conversion of forest lands and grasslands to cropland
and pasture, afforestation), cause changes superimposed on natural fluxes [7]. Tower, ground-based,
and satellite observations indicate that tropical deforestation results in warmer, drier conditions at the
local scale [8]. These conditions lower agricultural productivity, with reduced soil moisture content and
pasture, and lead to human migration, resource conflicts, and loss of biodiversity, among others [9–12].
In the Kenyan Eastern Mau Forest Reserve, forest-to-cropland conversions are undermining the
ecosystem’s capacity for carbon sequestration [13]. In the Ngerengere River in Tanzania, changing
land use affects surface runoff and increases floods in the mountainous areas [14].
Geographical information systems and remote sensing (GIS and RS) techniques can be used
to explore the temporal and spatial characteristics of land use/cover changes [15]. For example,
in Uganda, GIS and RS were applied to assess the impacts of land use/cover change on terrestrial
carbon stocks [16]. The information about land use is often stored in geospatial databases, typically
acquired and maintained by national mapping agencies. Such databases consist of objects represented
by polygons that are assigned class labels indicating the objects’ land use [17]. Therefore, land
use/cover information can be directly interpreted from appropriate remote sensing images [18].
Presently, the diversity of conversions of natural ecosystems to land use systems is a critical
challenge in Uganda. This is driven by the need to meet the livelihoods of smallholders, high
demand for forest products, urban expansions, and infrastructural developments (such as the
construction of highways, hydropower dams, and industrial parks, among others). As a result,
the country has witnessed massive losses of natural vegetation and intensification of human activities.
This condition is worsened by the overexploitation of resources, use of unsustainable harvesting
and agronomic practices, and changes in climate. Some of the threatened ecosystems include Mt
Elgon in Eastern Uganda, the Mabira Central Forest Reserve, the Lubigi wetland system, and Lake
Victoria, among others [19–22]. As a result, the country is faced with a number of environmental
problems such as frequent occurrences of landslides and floods that cause deaths and loss of property,
loss of biodiversity, low agricultural output, and reduced forest and wetland goods and services,
among others [23–25]. This study takes note of a number of studies that have been conducted in the
country to quantify changes in land use/cover [26–28]. However, there is no study that has redefined
and reclassified land use systems and estimated their future scenario at a country level using a Markov
chain model [29]. With high population increase causing increased demand for arable and settlement
land, fragile ecosystem goods and services are under enormous pressure to meet the needs of the
people. This case is evident with a number of fragmented patches of arable land across the country.
Therefore, with this patchiness of the landscape, reclassifying land use systems is pertinent for land
cover conservation and land use systems management.
The overarching aim of this paper was to critically assess the extent of historical, current,
and future land use systems in Uganda. The specific objectives of this study were to (i) characterize
and assess the extent of historical and current land use systems, and (ii) project future land use systems.
This study identifies areas where conservation is needed because of increasing human activities.
This information is also conceptualized within the framework of Uganda Vision 2040 and Second
Land 2018, 7, 132 3 of 17

National Development Plan that calls for the protection of fragile ecosystems which support the
economy, for example, through tourism, and attainment of sustainable development goals.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Area

Uganda, a former British colony, is located along the equator in East Africa. The landlocked
country occupies about 241,550.7 km2 , of which 41,027.4 km2 is open water and swamps while
200,523.5 km2 is land (Figure 1). Uganda is bordered by Kenya in the East, Tanzania and Rwanda in
the south, the Democratic Republic of Congo in the west, and South Sudan in the North. The country
is highly engaged in agriculture as the main source of livelihood. Cropland is the largest land cover,
followed by grasslands, open water, forests, bushlands, wetlands, and built-up area [30]. The land
use/cover utilization types are highly influenced by the amounts of rainfall received. Uganda’s climate
is considerably modified by elevation above sea level, local water bodies, and local relief. The country
experiences both bimodal and unimodal rainfall patterns. Rainfall is evenly distributed throughout the
country, except in the northeastern corner. Much of the country receives between 1000–1500 mm of rain
per annum, increasing with altitude, but this is variable. In most areas of Uganda, there are wetter and
drier seasons. The Central, Western, and Eastern regions have two rainy seasons, from March to May
for the first rains, and the second rains from September to November. The Northern region receives
one rainy season from April to October, and the period from November to March has minimal rain.
Most of the areas in the country receive between 750 mm and 2100 mm of rain annually. The reliability
of rainfall generally declines northwards. Amidst the changes being experienced in climate, Uganda’s
population has also continued to grow rapidly from 9.5 million in 1969 to 34.6 million in 2014 [30].
However, rapid population growth and environmental degradation pose a growing challenge to the
continued productivity of the land resources.
Land 2018, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 18

Figure 1. Location
Figure 1. Locationof
of the study
the study area
area in Africa.
in Africa.

2.2. Acquisition of Land Use/Cover Data

This study obtained the spatial land use/cover datasets from the National Forestry Authority for
the years 1990 and 2015 and processed them to produce land use systems for Uganda. The authority
is the mandated institution required to frequently monitor land use/cover changes in Uganda. This
period (1990–2015) was selected because the land use codes and description of land use/cover classes
Land 2018, 7, 132 4 of 17

2.2. Acquisition of Land Use/Cover Data

This study obtained the spatial land use/cover datasets from the National Forestry Authority for
the years 1990 and 2015 and processed them to produce land use systems for Uganda. The authority
is the mandated institution required to frequently monitor land use/cover changes in Uganda.
This period (1990–2015) was selected because the land use codes and description of land use/cover
classes had been defined and classified in detail.

2.2.1. Processing of 1990 Land Use/Cover Data

In 1995, the National Biomass Study (NBS) by the National Forestry Authority generated a
national land use/cover map for the year 1990 (Figure 2).
Land 2018, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 18

Figure2.2. Land
Figure Land use/cover
use/cover for
for Uganda
Uganda for
for the
the year
year 1990.
1990.

The NBSTable 1. Description

generated ofbased
this layer the National
on SPOTBiomass Study’s land
multispectral (XS):use/cover
SPOT IIclasses (1990).
satellites’ high-resolution
images
No. purchased from National
Land Use/Cover Classes Centre for Space Studies (CNES) in France
Description (band swatch 60 × 60 km;
covering
1 the 1988–1992 period).
Built-up area The paper hard copies were trimmed to fit
Urban and rural built areas the 1:50,000 toposheets
of Uganda’s
2 Y733 series. The Panchromatic aerial
Bushlands photos
Bush, werescrub
thickets, used(average
to fill data gaps
height identified in the
<4 m)
SPOT
3 imagery. The georeferenced
Commercial farmland imagesMonocropped,
were later manually digitized
nonseasonal farming,onusually
a tabletwith
using
no PC
treesArcInfo
software to characterize the land Rangeland,
use/cover types.pasture
The land, savannah—may
captured classes were include
verified scattered tree the
throughout
4 Grassland
shrubs, thickets,
year and spanned 2 years. The land use/cover types are described in Table 1. scrub
5 Hardwood plantation Hard and softwood
6 Impediments Bare rocks and land
7 Open water Lakes, rivers, and ponds
8 Small-scale farmland Mixed farmland, smallholding with or without scattered trees
Tropical high forest (well
9 Normally stocked
stocked)
Tropical high forest (low
10 Degraded/depleted/encroached
stocked)
11 Wetland Wetland vegetation, swamps, papyrus, and other sedges
12 Woodland Trees and shrubs (average height >4 m)
13 Softwood Scattered woodlots

2.2.2. Processing of 2015 Land Use/Cover Data

Land 2018, 7, 132 5 of 17

Table 1. Description of the National Biomass Study’s land use/cover classes (1990).

No. Land Use/Cover Classes Description

1 Built-up area Urban and rural built areas
2 Bushlands Bush, thickets, scrub (average height <4 m)
3 Commercial farmland Monocropped, nonseasonal farming, usually with no trees
Rangeland, pasture land, savannah—may include scattered tree
4 Grassland
shrubs, thickets, scrub
5 Hardwood plantation Hard and softwood
6 Impediments Bare rocks and land
7 Open water Lakes, rivers, and ponds
8 Small-scale farmland Mixed farmland, smallholding with or without scattered trees
9 Tropical high forest (well stocked) Normally stocked
10 Tropical high forest (low stocked) Degraded/depleted/encroached
11 Wetland Wetland vegetation, swamps, papyrus, and other sedges
12 Woodland Trees and shrubs (average height >4 m)
13 Softwood Scattered woodlots

2.2.2. Processing of 2015 Land Use/Cover Data

This layer was generated based on Landsat 8 images (operational land imager) downloaded
from United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) through the Global Visualization Viewer (GLOVIS)
portal (covering 180 × 185 km). The dry season images with no clouds were downloaded to a local
workstation and analyzed. The images were rectified, coregistered, and atmospherically corrected
Top of Atmosphere (TOA) to remove atmospheric errors. The majority filtering method was used to
enhance the images for better visualization.
The images were analyzed using a Quantum GIS (QGIS)-based semiautomatic image classification
plugin for a hybrid of supervised and unsupervised image classification procedures. The spectral
Land 2018, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 18
classes extracted, however, were not well represented, and therefore a mean shift segmentation
algorithm Thewas adopted
spectral and
classes used tohowever,
extracted, segment thenot
were land use/cover
well represented,classes (Figurea3).
and therefore Theshift
mean parametric
supervised segmentation
segmentation was
algorithm implemented
was to refine
adopted and used initial
to segment the classes following
land use/cover classesthe National
(Figure 3). TheBiomass
parametric
Study (2003) supervisedsystem
classification segmentation
[31].was implemented
A field to refine
verification initial classes
exercise was following
undertakenthe National
to validate the
Biomass Study (2003) classification system [31]. A field verification exercise was undertaken to
classified landscape land use/cover types.
validate the classified landscape land use/cover types.

Figure 3. Land use/cover for Uganda for the year 2015.

Figure 3. Land use/cover for Uganda for the year 2015.
2.3. Characterization of Land Use Systems

2.3.1. Definition of Land Use System

A land use system is a combination of one land unit and one land utilization type (with one set
of land use requirements). According to [32] a single-land-use system is the configuration whose
performance is analyzed in the assessment of land suitability. However, the generation of land use
Land 2018, 7, 132 6 of 17

2.3. Characterization of Land Use Systems

2.3.1. Definition of Land Use System

A land use system is a combination of one land unit and one land utilization type (with one
set of land use requirements). According to [32] a single-land-use system is the configuration whose
performance is analyzed in the assessment of land suitability. However, the generation of land use
systems based on the above definition has proved to be too complex and does not result in readily
recognizable land use units. Much simpler schemes have been proposed and applied at a global scale
to characterize land use systems and ecosystem attributes. The obtained land use/cover datasets of
the years 1990 and 2015 were preprocessed and reclassified in a Geographical Information Systems
environment (ArcGIS software version 10.1) in the definition of land use systems for Uganda.

2.3.2. Criteria for the Definition of Land Use Systems

The land use systems were defined based on the following three criterions:

• Similarity in the broad land cover classes;

• Similarity in terms of protection status;
• Presence and density of livestock activities.

2.3.3. Steps of Characterizing Land Use Systems

The 1990 and 2015 land use/cover classes were reclassified into finer land use systems based
on their uses. These land use/cover datasets were analyzed into land use systems using the
following procedures:

• Step 1: The detailed land use/cover classes were aggregated into 8 classes (forests, grasslands,
shrubs, crops and crop mosaics (agricultural land), wetlands, shrubs and bushlands, bare land
areas, and open water).
• Step 2: Irrigated land was identified and overlaid with the map generated in step 1 to create a
subclass of irrigated agricultural land. Irrigated land is land equipped with infrastructure for
irrigation and this was identified from the 2015 irrigation map for Uganda.
• Step 3: The protected area layer was overlaid with the layer generated under step 2 for protected
land cover (such as protected forest or grassland). Protected areas are areas gazetted for wildlife
conservation and they were identified from the protected areas 2014 map for Uganda.
• Step 4: Livestock intensity was estimated using the Tropical Livestock Unit based on the Ministry
of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) Uganda Census of Agriculture data
(2008/2009) and overlaid with the layer generated under step 3 to define grassland, shrubs,
and sparse shrub and herbaceous subclasses based on the livestock intensity.
• Step 5: For forests, wetlands, and agricultural lands, if the overlay with livestock indicated a
moderate or high livestock density, the land use system was considered as a combination of
forestry, wetlands, and crops mixed with grazing, respectively.
• Step 6: In addition to livestock presence, population presence was used to define other forest and
wetland subclasses, including unprotected and protected classes for wetlands and forests with
agricultural activities and virgin forest.

2.4. Validation of Land Use Systems

The identified land use systems were validated in the field and consultative workshops for
classification accuracies. Two validation workshops were held in Kampala that were attended by key
experts in land use systems-related work. The experts were pooled from Makerere University and
other institutions of higher learning in Uganda; the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and
Fisheries (MAAIF); Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE); Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban
Land 2018, 7, 132 7 of 17

Development (MLHUD); National Forestry Authority (NFA); National Environmental Management

Authority (NEMA); Ministry of Local Government (MoLG); local urban authorities; and civil society
organizations such as Wildlife Conservation Society and the Albertine Rift Program Kampala.
The land use systems were also validated in the field in representative Afromontane
(Bulambuli District) and Western mid-altitude landscapes (Hoima district). These landscapes exhibited
a wider range of landscape components such as soil, altitude, and population that were harmonized
prior to stratification. The landscapes were identified based on a number of factors, such as
agroecosystems, biophysical, geographical, socioeconomic, and cultural factors. Other landscapes
included Lake Victoria Crescent, Northern Moist farmland, the Southeast Lake Kyoga floodplain,
and Southwestern rangeland. The validations were conducted using 3 focus group discussions in each
district in addition to field visits to confirm the 2015 land use systems map.

2.5. Projection of Land Use Systems

2.5.1. Description of Land Change Modeler

The prediction of land use systems was carried out in TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and
Modelling Software using the land change modeler (LCM) platform to generate future land use
systems for Uganda.
The principle behind the land change modeler is to evaluate the trend of change from one land use
system category to another. The influencing factors included the digital terrain model (DEM) and road
network to predict the future land use system pattern based on the previous change trend. The Shuttle
Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model of 30 m obtained, pre-processed by filling
voids and applied in the LCM modeler. The national roads layer was acquired from the Uganda
National Roads Authority (2010), verified for completeness, accuracy and incorporated into the model
to facilitate the change prediction processes. The location accuracy of the road network was validated
using Google Earth Pro (Geoeye image for 2015).
LCM is more accurate because the neural network outputs are able to express the simultaneous
change potential to various land use systems more adequately than individual probabilities obtained
through the weights of evidence method [33].

2.5.2. Transition Potential

The LCM computes the Cramer’s coefficient, which indicates the degree to which each explanatory
variable is associated with the distributions of land use system categories. The variables were selected
provided they significantly contributed to the explanation of the spatial distribution of the land use
systems of interest.
The selected variables were modelled using a multilayer perceptron (MLP). The MLP consists of a
set of input units (the input layer), one or more sets of computation nodes (the hidden layers), and one
set of computation/output nodes (the output layer). The nodes are linked by a web of connections
which are applied as a set of weights. The network is trained by the backpropagation algorithm,
which involves spreading the errors from the output layer to the input layers iteratively in order to
correct the values of the weights [33].
The MLP is normally organized around transition submodels. A transition submodel consists
of a single land use system transition or a group of transitions that are thought to have the same
contributing factors (Table 2). The advantage of using MLP is that it is capable of modelling complex
relationships between variables.
Land 2018, 7, 132 8 of 17

Table 2. Transitions and submodels (LCM).

Transitions From–To Submodel Name

Woodland–unprotected to agricultural land Woodland_to_agriculture
Grassland–unprotected to agricultural land Grassland_to_agriculture
Bushland–unprotected to agricultural land Bushland_to_agriculture

Based on the relationship between the transitions and explanatory variables, the maps of change
potential are produced for each transition. For example, assuming that a location is more vulnerable if
it is prone to several transitions at the same time, the operator ‘OR’ is used to combine the transition
potential in order to produce an overall change potential map.

2.5.3. Future Prediction

The land use systems layers for year 1990 and 2015 were prepared (i.e., ensured they had the same
number of classes for land use systems, pixel size, projection among others) and thereafter added to
the model to perform the prediction of future land use systems for the year 2040. The period coincides
with Uganda Vision 2040, which is conceptualized around strengthening the fundamentals of the
economy to harness the abundant opportunities in the country. In the change prediction, the dynamic
road development of stochastic highest transition potential was selected with the highest transition
potential route. The prediction for future land use systems was based on the Markov chain model [29].
The trend of land use systems was also determined. The trend is hereby referred to as a
shift over time among the relationships between the factors that shape the changing nature of
human–environment relations. The trend was determined through aggregation of land use systems
for the assessed periods (1990–2015; 2015–2040).

3. Results

3.1. Identificaiton and Characterization of Land Use Systems in Uganda

A description of the different land use systems in Uganda is presented in the next section. A total
of 29 land use systems were identified and characterized in the country. These land use systems fall
into eight broad land use/cover classes, including agricultural land, bushlands, forest, woodland,
grasslands, impediments, open water, built-up areas, and wetlands.

3.1.1. Forest Land Use Systems

Four land use systems were identified under forests in Uganda. These include forests consisting
of tree plantations, forests with subsistence farming activities, forests with livestock activities,
and protected forests. A forest is defined as an ecosystems that is dominated by trees (defined
as perennial woody plants taller than 5 m at maturity), where the tree crown cover (or equivalent
stocking level) exceeds 10% and the area is larger than 0.5 hectares.
Tree plantation forests are areas of systematically planted, man-managed, primarily exotic tree
species (including hybrids). This category includes both young and mature plantations that have
been established for commercial timber production, seedling trials, and woodlot/windbreaks of
substantial size to be identifiable on satellite imagery. All non-timber-based plantations, such as tea,
sisal, and orchards, are excluded. Forest areas with partial or permanent livestock activities and those
with farming activities were classified as forest with livestock activities and forest with subsistence
activities, respectively. Protected forests included those found in national parks, forest reserves,
bird sanctuaries, botanical gardens, and other conservation areas detectable at a mapping scale.
Land 2018, 7, 132 9 of 17

3.1.2. Agricultural Land Use Systems

Three major land use systems were identified under agricultural land, namely subsistence
agricultural land, commercial agricultural land without irrigation, and irrigated commercial
agricultural land. Agricultural lands are arable and regularly tilled for the production of crops,
with or without irrigation. Commercial agricultural lands are characterized by large, uniform,
well-managed field units, often mechanized, and more than 10 ha in size [34], with the aim of
supplying both regional and national and export markets. Some use supplementary irrigation and
others are rain-fed. Subsistence farmlands are generally smaller in size, i.e., less than 10 ha in size
(about 2 ha on average) [34]. Subsistence farmlands are generally rain-fed.

3.1.3. Open Water Land Use System

This land use system consists of permanently open water (man-made or natural); static or flowing;
salty, brackish, or fresh. This land use system includes lakes, lagoons, ponds, and big reservoirs
(big dams).

3.1.4. Grassland Land Use System

Grasslands are defined as those areas where herbaceous plants dominate the vegetation and
where woody plants and shrub cover less than 10% of the area. There are five land use systems under
grassland areas, three of which involve livestock (grassland with high livestock density, grassland
with medium livestock density, and grassland with low livestock density). Other land use systems
include grassland protected and grassland unprotected.

3.1.5. Built-Up Areas Land Use System

This land use system essentially comprises of all formal built-up areas, in which people reside on
a permanent or near-permanent basis, identifiable by the high density of residential and associated
infrastructure. It includes cities, towns, municipalities and rural clusters (trading centres).

3.1.6. Impediments Land Use System

This system comprises land covered by bare bedrock, rocky land, and cobble fields and which has
less than 10% vegetated cover during any time of the year. Two land use systems were identified on
this type of land, including protected impediments and unprotected impediments.

3.1.7. Wetlands Land Use System

Wetlands are areas of land with a permanent mosaic of water and herbaceous or woody vegetation
that covers extensive areas. The vegetation can be present in either salt, brackish, or fresh water,
the depth of which does not exceed six meters. Three land use systems were identified under
wetlands, including wetlands with livestock activities, wetlands with crop farmland activities,
and protected wetlands.

3.1.8. Bushlands Land Use System

Bushlands represent dense, woody, semisucculent, and thorny vegetation types of an average
height of 2–3 m which are relatively impenetrable in an unaltered condition. Bushlands are used
for grazing and are found in or outside protected areas. Five land use systems, of which three were
associated with livestock presence and two were associated with their protection status, were identified.

3.2. The Extent of Historical and Present Land Use Systems

The extent of historical and present land use systems is presented in Table 3. For both periods,
a total of 29 classes of land use systems were identified and defined; namely, three (3) of the land use
systems are agricultural, five (5) are under bushland, four (4) under forest, five (5) under grasslands,
Land 2018, 7, 132 10 of 17

two (2) under impediments, three (3) under wetlands, five (5) under woodland, and one under
open water and urban settlement respectively. In 1990, the agricultural land use system was the
most dominant (35.06%), followed by grassland (21.17%), woodland (16.45%), and open water
(15.28%). The other land use systems include open water—protected, urban—settlement, impediments,
and forest- and bushland-related land use systems.

Table 3. Changes in the extent of land use systems coverage between 1990 and 2015.

1990 2015
No. Land Use Systems
Area (km2 ) % Area (km2 ) Area (km2 ) % Area (km2 )
1 Agricultural land—commercial 517.32 0.209 2587.71 1.06
2 Agricultural land—irrigated 28.8 0.012 46.08 0.02
3 Agricultural land—subsistence 98,073.36 39.683 107,426.6 44.16
4 Bushlands—high livestock density 1389.29 0.562 1360.66 0.56
5 Bushlands—low livestock density 111.07 0.045 452.54 0.19
6 Bushlands—moderate livestock density 2111.07 0.854 2642.54 1.09
7 Bushlands—protected 5206.78 2.107 7410.41 3.05
8 Bushlands—unprotected 5459.02 2.209 4236.81 1.74
9 Grasslands—high livestock density 3240.07 1.311 6588.38 2.71
10 Grasslands—low livestock density 7398.23 2.993 5350.85 2.20
11 Grasslands—moderate livestock density 6131.7 2.481 6534.76 2.69
12 Grasslands—protected 6648.12 2.690 27,146.2 11.16
13 Grasslands—unprotected 26,402.33 10.683 6118.32 2.52
14 Impediments—protected 9.7 0.004 34.56 0.01
15 Impediments—unprotected 11.52 0.005 51.9 0.02
16 Open water—protected 37,130.69 15.024 36,980.77 15.20
17 Tropical high forest (encroachment)—subsistence 2186.91 0.885 872.06 0.36
18 Tropical high forest—tree plantations 218.1 0.088 2420.6 1.00
19 Tropical high forest—with livestock activities 6765.05 2.737 942.69 0.39
20 Tropical high forest—protected 2715.46 1.099 3199.14 1.32
21 Urban—settlement 362.1 0.147 1340.09 0.55
22 Wetlands—protected 1963.58 0.795 6028.29 2.48
23 Wetlands—with crop farmland activities 217.43 0.088 347.64 0.14
24 Wetlands—with livestock activities 528.3 0.214 487.72 0.20
25 Woodland/forest—high livestock density 1851.1 0.749 685.19 0.28
26 Woodland/forest—low livestock density 5481.56 2.218 1246.91 0.51
27 Woodland/forest—protected 4092.06 1.656 6822.21 2.80
28 Woodland/forest—unprotected 9612.57 3.889 867.25 0.36
29 Woodland/forest —moderate livestock density 11,281.56 4.565 3024.91 1.24

In 2015, agricultural, grassland, and wetland-related land use systems remained the most
dominant. Between the two periods, agricultural and woodland-related land use systems experienced
the most significant changes in terms of gains or losses. Agriculture-related land use systems increased
by 8.56%, while those related to woodland reduced by 11.86% compared to their original values.
Figures 4 and 5 show the spatial distribution of the different land use systems across the country for
the years 1990 and 2015, respectively.
Despite an increment in commercial agricultural land, subsistence agricultural land remains the
most dominant land use system across the country. It also worthwhile to note that the areas under
bushland with moderate livestock activities, unprotected bushland, grassland with low livestock
activities, grassland with moderate livestock activities, encroached tropical forest, and woodland
which is unprotected or with livestock activities declined by 2015.
Land 2018, 7, 132 11 of 17
Land 2018,
Land 2018, 7,
7, x
x FOR
FOR PEER
PEER REVIEW
REVIEW 11 of
11 of 18
18

Figure 4.
Figure 4. Historical
Historical land
land use
use systems
systems of
of Uganda
Uganda in
in 1990.
1990.

Figure
Figure 5. Current
5.
Figure 5. Current land
Current land use systems
use
land use systems for
systems for Uganda,
for Uganda, as
Uganda, as of
as of 2015.
of 2015.
2015.

3.3. Projection of Land

Table
Table 3. Use Systems
3. Changes
Changes in the
in the extent
extent of
of land
land use
use systems
systems coverage
coverage between
between 1990
1990 and
and 2015.
2015.

Table 4 below shows theSystems

projected land use systems for19901990
Uganda (Figure 6). By 2040, 2015 most of the
2015
No.
No. Land Use
Land Use Systems Area (km
(km22)) %% Area
Area (km
(km22)) Area
Area (km
(km22)) %% Area
Area (km
or(km
2)
land use systems’ acreages are likely to change inArea terms gains or losses. Minimum gains 2)
losses
11 Agricultural
Agricultural land—commercial
land—commercial 517.32 0.209
517.32with livestock
0.209 2587.71 1.06
2587.71 woodland/forest
1.06
of land are likely to be recorded in tropical high forest activities,
22 Agricultural land—irrigated
Agricultural land—irrigated 28.8
28.8 0.012
0.012 46.08
46.08 0.02
0.02
with33 livestock activities, and
Agricultural
Agricultural
woodland/forest unprotected.
land—subsistence
land—subsistence 98,073.36 Subsistence
98,073.36 39.683 agricultural
39.683 107,426.6 land use
107,426.6
is likely
44.16
44.16
44 Bushlands—high livestock
Bushlands—high livestock density
density 1389.29
1389.29 0.562
0.562 1360.66
1360.66 0.56
0.56
55 Bushlands—low livestock density
Bushlands—low livestock density 111.07
111.07 0.045
0.045 452.54
452.54 0.19
0.19
66 Bushlands—moderate livestock
Bushlands—moderate livestock density
density 2111.07
2111.07 0.854
0.854 2642.54
2642.54 1.09
1.09
Land 2018, 7, 132 12 of 17

to increase by about 1%, tropical high forest with livestock activities is likely to decrease by 0.2%,
and woodland/forest unprotected by 0.07%.

Table 4. Projected land use systems of Uganda for the year 2040.

Land 2018, 7, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2040 13 of 18

No. Land Use Systems
Area (km2 ) % Area (km2 )
5 Bushlands—moderate livestock density 1273.4 0.528
1 Agricultural land—commercial 2875.97 1.191
2
6 Bushlands—low livestock density
Agricultural land—irrigated
1079.98
96.08
0.4470.040
3 7 Bushlands—protected
Agricultural land—subsistence 7363.73
109,713.8 3.05145.452
4 8 Bushlands—unprotected
Bushlands—high livestock density 4219.81
1333.4 1.7480.552
5 9 Bushlands—moderate livestock density
Grasslands—high livestock density 1273.4
6578.74 2.7250.528
6 Bushlands—low livestock density 1079.98 0.447
10 Grasslands—low livestock density 5339.8 2.212
7 Bushlands—protected 7363.73 3.051
8 11 Grasslands—moderate livestock density
Bushlands—unprotected 6529.63
4219.81 2.7051.748
9 12 Grasslands—protected
Grasslands—high livestock density 27,089.86
6578.74 11.2232.725
10 13 Grasslands—low livestock density
Grasslands—unprotected 5339.8
5966.88 2.4722.212
11 14 Grasslands—moderate livestock density
Impediments—protected 6529.63
28.8 0.0122.705
12 Grasslands—protected 27,089.86 11.223
13 15 Impediments—unprotected
Grasslands—unprotected 51.9
5966.88 0.0222.472
14 16 Open water—protected
Impediments—protected 36,984.29
28.8 15.3220.012
15 17 Tropical high forest (encroachment)—subsistence
Impediments—unprotected 869.87
51.9 0.3600.022
16 18 Tropical highwater—protected
Open forest—tree plantations 36,984.29
2407.54 0.99715.322
17 Tropical high forest (encroachment)—subsistence 869.87 0.360
19 Tropical high forest—with livestock activities 421.69 0.175
18 Tropical high forest—tree plantations 2407.54 0.997
19 20 Tropical
Tropical high forest—protected
high forest—with livestock activities 3207.35
421.69 1.3290.175
20 21 Urban—settlement
Tropical high forest—protected 1432.26
3207.35 0.5931.329
21 22 Urban—settlement
Wetlands—protected 1432.26
6013.49 2.4910.593
22 23 Wetlands—protected
Wetlands—with crop farmland activities 6013.49
647.64 0.2682.491
23 Wetlands—with crop farmland activities 647.64 0.268
24 24 Wetlands—with livestock
Wetlands—with livestock activities
activities 487.98
487.98 0.2020.202
25 25 Woodland/forest—high
Woodland/forest—high livestocklivestock density
density 235.59
235.59 0.0980.098
26 26 Woodland/forest—low
Woodland/forest—low livestocklivestock density
density 1953.95
1953.95 0.8090.809
27 27 Woodland/forest—protected
Woodland/forest—protected 6788.46
6788.46 2.8122.812
28 Woodland/forest—unprotected 287.27 0.119
28 Woodland/forest—unprotected 287.27 0.119
29 Woodland/forest—moderate livestock density 102.5 0.042
29 Woodland/forest—moderate livestock density 102.5 0.042

Figure 6. Projected land use systems of Uganda for the year 2040.
Figure 6. Projected land use systems of Uganda for the year 2040.
Land 2018, 7, 132 13 of 17

Subsistence agricultural land is projected to increase in Western mid-altitude farmland, in the

Zombo Afromontane region, in the Southwestern rangeland, in the Lake Victoria crescent, and in the
southeast Lake Kyoga floodplains. Figure 6 shows the predicted distribution of land use systems in
2040. Patches of woodlands are likely to emerge in the highlands of Kabale and around the Western
arm of the East African Rift Valley system. Patches of tropical forest and tree plantations are also likely
to emerge in the Northern moist farmland.
There are normally ambiguities in the acceptability of the results of land use/cover predictions,
especially at a large scale and when the result predicts a future scenario based on disturbed variables.
The prediction of land use systems model was built on an MLP built module at 1000 iterations. A fairly
good model prediction accuracy (53%) was obtained for the conversions of current land use systems to
the future.

4. Discussion
Agricultural land use systems dominate land use changes over the study period (between 1990
and 2015), even in the projection for the year 2040. This result was expected and it is consistent with
several other studies that have been conducted for Uganda (for an example, see [35]). Using global
land use change models, this is also a consistent observation that has been registered across several
parts of the world; for example, by the authors of [36], who showed that extensions of the agricultural
frontier were a dominant phenomenon observed across the sub-Saharan region. This result, along with
previous studies, reaffirms the dominance of agriculture in the livelihoods of a larger population
across the African continent and many developing countries. It is not surprising that several attempts
to establish woodlots across the region would increase their dominance next to agricultural land
use systems.
At a rate of population growth of 3.4% over the region, agricultural land uses are likely to
increase by about 1% and this would severely affect the tropical high forest; an observation that has
consistently been observed across many parts of the country by scholars, such as in [37]. At this rate of
change, the amount of forest cover available in the future will diminish tremendously and therefore
is not likely to support the livelihoods of people unless remedial and deterrent measures are put in
place. The study revealed that most conversions of land use were directed into agricultural lands,
followed by grasslands and bushlands. This suggests that these changes are the results of natural
and human-related factors. This is in line with the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and a
previous report [38], which categorize the contributing factors of ecosystem change into natural or
human-induced factors.
These factors are associated with population increase and its associated demands for land
resources, inadequate enforcement of environmental laws, the economic values of major crops, culture,
low education level for the majority of the people, land tenure, the small size of household land
holdings, and political interventions. The contributing factors must, however, be understood and
interpreted carefully given the multiple spatial and temporal scales, and social and methodological
perspectives in which related studies have been conducted. There is indeed a clear distinction between
contributing factors across scales. Moreover, interactions between contributing factors add to the
complexity of land use change processes. For example, microlevel studies [35,38] have observed
that land use change was occasioned by the prevailing governance shortfalls (policy–institutional
dysfunctionality), demographic pressures, the unmonitored influx of immigrant settlers, and the
erosion of institutional controls.
The projected unregulated increase in agricultural land is expected to be made at the expense
of tropical high forest and unprotected woodland/forest. This was also observed by the authors
of [39], who concluded that over 90% of private forests near Budongo Forest Reserve were affected by
sugarcane growing. Because of the rising rural populations and high population density hotspots in
Uganda [40], the need for agricultural land has increased across the country and this creates multiple
threats for ecosystems in general and land use systems in particular. In fact, areas of high population
Land 2018, 7, 132 14 of 17

densities in Uganda are typically agricultural production zones. With a national annual population
growth rate that is estimated at 3.4%, the need for agricultural land among smallholder farmers should
be expected to rise substantially. The growing importance attached to land for commercial agriculture
and other large-scale land developments have increased the competition for land and stimulated
market-based transactions. These interplays are responsible for large-scale land use changes across the
country. The discovery of oil and proposals by sugar companies for large-scale land acquisition may
further exacerbate the land use changes; the authors of [41] observed the same across the Albertine
subregion, Northern Uganda, and the Busoga subregion. Although this was not explored in greater
detail, we can also speculate that the increases in agricultural systems projected by the year 2040 may
arise out of the need to satisfy the demands of the growing urban population. Indeed, the authors
of [42] reported that the remaining forest is under increasing pressure from the rising urban demand
for wood products.
The importance of the institutional and policy environment cannot be underestimated across
the whole country. There is a myriad of policies and institutional frameworks which influence
land uses across the country; a comprehensive Land Sector Strategic Plan in 2001 and a National
Land Use Policy in 2013 followed the Land Act. More broadly, land and land uses are central to
macro-scale policy frameworks, including the Uganda Vision 2040 and the National Development
Plan II (2015/16–2019/20). However, their influence on land use change can only be speculative.
Some studies (for example, see [43] have observed that land cover/use change and the systematic
tenfold increase expansion of cropland is attributable to policy changes and interventions by the
Government of Uganda and development partners to promote food security in the Afromontane
subregion. On the other hand, evidence reported by [44] from the case studies in Kalangala and
Amuru Districts demonstrates the incapacity of existing land governance institutions to cope with
the scale of change, particularly in areas with existing or proposed commercial land investments.
Similar challenges are evident in other areas with large-scale land acquisitions, even when they are not
agribusiness-related. In the Albertine Rift, for example, the rush for land stimulated by oil development
is overstretching the capacity of local institutions to cope and therefore increasing tenure insecurity.
This study also takes note of the fact that Uganda is prone to natural disasters such as landslides,
floods, droughts, hailstorms and so forth that have devastated property and life, resulting in adverse
effects such as loss of revenue, migration, and loss of household incomes [45,46]. These are primarily
triggered by natural and human activities that have destabilized the natural systems, such as erratic
rainfall, unsustainable farming practices, and unplanned settlements, among others. Therefore,
this study envisages more disasters to occur in the country, meaning that more deaths and loss
of property will occur if the rate at which land use systems are expanding is not monitored and
controlled/regulated in the near future.

5. Conclusions
This study reveals a total of 29 classes of land use systems, categorized as follows: three (3) of
the land use systems are agricultural, five (5) are under bushland, four (4) under forest, five (5) under
grasslands, two (2) under impediments, three (3) under wetlands, five (5) under woodland, and one
each under open water and urban settlement. The highest gains in the land among the land use
systems were experienced in agricultural land—subsistence and grasslands—protected, while the
highest losses were seen in the grasslands—unprotected, woodland/forest—low livestock density,
and woodland/forest—unprotected. The grassland areas are highly prone to human encroachments
with the aim to establish smallholder farms. By 2040, most of the land use systems’ acreages
are likely to change in terms gains or losses. Minimum gains or losses of land are likely to be
recorded in only tropical high forest with livestock activities, woodland/forest with livestock activities,
and woodland/forest unprotected. This is given the assumption that the current state of affairs stays
the same. The changes in land use systems are highly driven by population pressure, weak enforcement
of environmental laws, and the high economic value of major cash crops. This study will inform
Land 2018, 7, 132 15 of 17

the local and national stakeholders on the state of natural resources and their problems and driving
forces so that conservation efforts are incorporated in the subnational development plans before
they diminish. However, this study takes note of the spatial resolution limitations of the data and
inadequate validation of land use systems in all of the seven landscapes in Uganda.
The classification of land systems and their contributing factors clearly brings forward the
major causes of land cover conversion to the decision-makers so that adequate plans can be made,
especially in terms of allocating more funds towards conservation-related programs and also to enact
effective environmental laws. These are fundamental in the national and subnational development
planning of the country. This study, therefore, recommends a holistic involvement of all stakeholders
and the increment of conservation and land use planning awareness programs throughout the country
if the projected detrimental land use systems are to be controlled.
This study recommends that a detailed study to analyze and characterize the extent of influence
of the perceived contributing factors of changes in land use systems in Uganda be conducted.

Author Contributions: The land use system idea was conceptualized and supported by K.S. and N.C.;
the methodologies, validation, and analysis were performed by M.G.J.M., B.B., M.I.P., and W.J. The spatial
data was provided by D.J. and S.E.; N.B. (Nakangu Barbara) and N.B. (Nakileza Bob) reviewed the manuscript.
Funding: This study was funded by the United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) as part of
the Uganda UNREDD National Programme.
Acknowledgments: The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which took lead in the study,
acknowledges the tremendous support received from the REDD+ secretariat, the UNREDD team, and the national
stakeholders that provided input during the consultative workshops (at Protea Hotel and Hotel Africana in
Kampala), as well as the Mt. Elgon and the Western - mid altitude landscapes stakeholders. Special recognition
goes to the National Forestry Authority, Uganda Bureau of Statistics, Makerere University, National Agricultural
Research Laboratory Kawanda, and MAAIF for providing the data that was used during this study. Finally,
appreciation goes to Daniel Pouakouyou (Regional Technical Advisor for Africa—UN Environment) for the
overall oversight of the UN Environment component of the Uganda UNREDD National Program.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest in the publication of this manuscript.

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