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    Baccarat Math

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    Angela Brown
    Baccarat is a casino game where the house advantage is low, around 1.2%. Two cards are dealt to the player and banker sides, with face cards and tens counting as zero and other cards having their face value. The hand closest to nine wins, with ties resulting in a push. The house edge is slightly higher for player bets compared to banker bets due to a 5% commission on banker wins. The game relies solely on the initial cards rather than player strategy. While involving dependent trials like blackjack, card counting is not effective in baccarat.

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    Baccarat Math

    Uploaded by

    Angela Brown
    2K views4 pages
    Baccarat is a casino game where the house advantage is low, around 1.2%. Two cards are dealt to the player and banker sides, with face cards and tens counting as zero and other cards having their face value. The hand closest to nine wins, with ties resulting in a push. The house edge is slightly higher for player bets compared to banker bets due to a 5% commission on banker wins. The game relies solely on the initial cards rather than player strategy. While involving dependent trials like blackjack, card counting is not effective in baccarat.

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    Baccarat is a casino game where the house advantage is low, around 1.2%. Two cards are dealt to the player and banker sides, with face cards and tens counting as zero and other cards having their face value. The hand closest to nine wins, with ties resulting in a push. The house edge is slightly higher for player bets compared to banker bets due to a 5% commission on banker wins. The game relies solely on the initial cards rather than player strategy. While involving dependent trials like blackjack, card counting is not effective in baccarat.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    2K views4 pages

    Baccarat Math

    Uploaded by

    Angela Brown
    Baccarat is a casino game where the house advantage is low, around 1.2%. Two cards are dealt to the player and banker sides, with face cards and tens counting as zero and other cards having their face value. The hand closest to nine wins, with ties resulting in a push. The house edge is slightly higher for player bets compared to banker bets due to a 5% commission on banker wins. The game relies solely on the initial cards rather than player strategy. While involving dependent trials like blackjack, card counting is not effective in baccarat.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
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    The key takeaways are that baccarat has low house edges, hands are scored based on their total value with face cards and tens worth 0 and aces worth 1, and the game involves dependent trials but card counting is ineffective.

    In baccarat, hands are scored by adding the values of the individual cards, with face cards and tens worth 0 and aces worth 1. The hand with the higher total wins, unless they tie. A total of 8 or 9 on the first two cards is called a 'natural'.

    The house advantage for the player bet is 1.24%, for the banker bet is 1.06%, and for the tie bet is 14.36%. These advantages can also be expressed per resolved bet by ignoring ties.

    Baccarat

    Baccarat’s overall house advantage is about 1.2% – one of the lowest in the casino. After bets are made,

    two cards are dealt to each side (player and banker). All cards are community cards – there are no

    individual hands. Face cards and Tens are worth zero, Aces count as one, and all other cards are worth

    face value. The total for a hand is the sum of the values of the individual cards in the hand.

    A total of 8 or 9 on the first two cards is called a natural. If either side has a natural, the hand is over,

    and wagers are resolved. If neither side has a natural, a fixed set of rules (following) is applied to

    determine if either side takes a third card. Once the hands are complete, the side with the higher total

    wins. If the two sides have equal totals, player and banker bets are a push. The payoffs on winning

    player and banker bets are even money, but a 5% commission is charged to banker wins.68 A winning

    tie bet pays 8 to 1.

    Baccarat’s hitting and standing rules are presented in the following table. To read the table, start with

    the player’s first two cards total in the left column and proceed to the right, column by column to

    determine the drawing/standing rules. The rules favor the banker and the casino’s advantage on the

    banker bet would be negative without the 5% commission. With this commission, the house advantage

    on the banker bet is 1.06% (including ties). House Advantage: Player Bet: 1.24% (1.37% ignoring ties)

    Banker Bet: 1.06% (1.17% ignoring ties) Tie Bet: 14.36% Typical Hold: 18% (Nevada)

    *If either player or banker totals 8 or 9 on first two cards, no cards are drawn, and hand is over.

    As mentioned above, since the drawing rules are fixed, baccarat offers no opportunity for strategic

    decisions like blackjack does. Furthermore, although the game involves dependent trials (like blackjack),

    it has been shown that card-counting techniques are not effective in baccarat.
    Since baccarat is typically played with eight decks of cards, a proper mathematical analysis of baccarat

    can be performed by examining all combinations of player and banker hands for all possible six-card

    sequences in an eight-deck shoe. The analysis can be limited to six-card subsets since no hand can

    consist of more than six total cards for player and banker combined, and since hands comprised of less

    than six cards can be accounted for by summing the appropriate probabilities.

    However, since suits and the distinction between Tens, Jacks, Queens, and Kings are irrelevant, only

    5,005 distinguishable six-card subsets are possible, significantly easing the computational burden. A

    complete analysis, then, consists of (1) identifying the 5,005 distinguishable six-card subsets, (2) playing

    through the 180 possible hands for each of these subsets, (3) recording the player and banker scores

    and winning.

    The outcome (player, banker, or tie) for each hand, and (4) weighting each of the (5005 x 180)

    outcomes by the appropriate number of repetitions (corresponding to non-distinguishable six-card

    subsets).

    The analysis described above shows that the player wins 44.625% of the hands, the banker wins

    45.860% of the hands, and 9.516% end up tied. A complete breakdown by banker total.

    The player and banker advantages can be expressed either including or excluding ties. The 1.24% and

    1.06% advantages reported above include ties. If ties are ignored, the player will win 49.3175% of the

    hands and the banker will win 50.6825%. The expected values per resolved bet for these two bets are:

    EVPlayer = (+1) (.493175) + (−1) (.506825) = −0.01364965

    EVBanker = (+0.95) (.506825) + (−1) (.493175) = −0.0116916.


    House advantages ignoring ties, then, are 1.36% and 1.17% for player and banker, respectively.71 These

    advantages per resolved bet also could be obtained by dividing the house advantages per hand by the

    proportion of untied hands:

    .1 235% .0/ 9048 = 36.1 % and % .1 058% .0/ 9048 = 17.1.

    Regardless of whether house advantage is expressed per hand or per resolved bet, expected casino

    earnings are the same. For example, if a player bets $25 a hand on the banker for 10,000 hands, the

    1.06% house advantage per hand dealt results in a casino expected win of about $2,645 (.010579 x

    10,000 hands dealt x $25 per hand). Applying the 1.17% house advantage per resolved bet to the untied

    hands yields – aside from rounding error – the same expected win (.011692 x 9,048 resolved bets x $25

    per bet = $2,645). Obviously, a similar equivalency exists for the player bet.

    The vitality for baccarat since it is a game favored by high rollers and represents one of the few

    situations where the casino can be put in a high-risk situation. This section elaborates further on

    fluctuations in casino win in baccarat.

    For the sake of simplicity, the analysis that follows assumes an overall game standard deviation of 0.94

    per unit and a casino advantage of 1.15%, the values for a large series of bets equally divided between

    player and banker. Actual total casino win over the course of many hands will deviate from the expected

    win by an amount that depends on the per unit standard deviation, the amount wagered per hand, and

    the number of hands. Mathematically speaking, in repeated series of n equal wagers, the distribution of

    outcomes of total dollars won will be normally distributed (bell-shaped) around the expected win with

    standard deviation equal to win per unit SD (Standard Deviation) = unit wager × n × SD.

    Confidence limits for the actual win can be obtained from the following: () win Expected Win ± z × SD,
    where z is the appropriate standard normal value depending on the confidence level. For the usual 95%

    confidence, this is z = 1.96. Values of z corresponding to other confidence levels can found in a table of

    standard normal probabilities. In a series of 1,000 hands at $500 per hand, for example, the expected

    casino win is $5,750 (assuming a 1.15% house advantage), with an associated standard deviation.

    of 94.0 ×$500× ,1 000 ≈ $14,863. The 95% confidence limits for the casino’s win are given by $5,750 ±

    1.96(14,863), or −$23,381 to +$34,881.

    Casinos can increase the theoretical paybacks on slots by either increasing the number of winning

    combinations or increasing the amounts of paybacks on winning combinations. A casino can do the

    former on many slot machines by modifying the computer chip that operates the game to produce more

    or higher paying winning combinations. A casino can do the latter by increasing the paybacks on

    combinations. For example, the payout on lining up four bars may be increased from 100 coins to 200

    coins. In either case, over time, the casino decreases the theoretical win, pays out more in winnings and

    retains less revenue as a percentage of handle.

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