Location via proxy:   [ UP ]  
[Report a bug]   [Manage cookies]                

Investor Presentation 18 May 2018

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 30

Investor Presentation

May 2018
Forward-looking statements

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and information that


both represents management's current expectations or beliefs concerning future
events and are subject to known and unknown risks and uncertainties.

A number of factors could cause actual results, performance or events to differ


materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements.

May 2018 | P1
2018 year to date highlights and outlook
Production Cost Base Disposals Catcher
2018 YTD 2018 YTD 2018 YTD 2018 YTD
Q1 production of Q1 opex of $18.8/boe Kakap sale Levels of >60 kbopd
74 kboepd; current (constrained Catcher completed; Babbage reached; excellent
rates reached production) sale announced delivery capacity of
>90 kboepd available wells
2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook
FY Guidance of FY guidance of opex Complete Pakistan, Gas export to start
80-85kboepd $17-18/boe and capex Babbage and ETS shortly; complete
of $380m sales drilling programme

Tolmount Sea Lion Exploration Net Debt


2018 YTD 2018 YTD 2018 YTD 2018 YTD
Significant progress; Negotiating funding Significant licence Q1 cash flow neutral;
contract awards packages; LOI signed awards in Mexico, net debt down post
ongoing with contractors Indonesia; exited final CB exchange
E.ON commitments
2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook 2018 Outlook
Project sanction Secure funding for the Zama appraisal drilling Significant cash flow
scheduled for second project ahead of FID to start in H2 generation, debt
half (including on adjacent reduction and improving
Pemex block) covenant leverage ratio

May 2018 | P2
The asset portfolio

Largest
5 fields
accounted
for c. 70% of
production in
2017

May 2018 | P3
Strategic framework, NAV focused

Debt • Priority in 2018/2019


reduction • Targeting 2.5x EBITDAX by end Q1 2019

• Core operations in UKCS and Natuna Sea


Producing
– Maintain cost base of <$20/boe
assets
– Discretionary spend of $100m per annum

• Continue to leverage FPSO expertise


Develop-
– Targeting >20% IRR at $65/bbl
ment
– Utilise leasing and other off balance sheet structures

• Focus on proven but underexplored basins


Exploration – Avoid high cost, deep-water areas
– Minimise upfront commitments

May 2018 | P4
Balanced capital allocation, returns driven
7 year capital allocation 2018-2024
Net operating Debt
cash flow reduction

100% 30%
Producing assets

20% New projects

40%
Exploration
10%

A sustainable position

At $65/bbl • Positive free cash flow in all years to 2024


the business • Production > 100 kboepd at period end
will deliver • Covenant level of <1x at period end

May 2018 | P5
Portfolio overview
Asia production portfolio

Chim Sáo (op, 53.125%) Natuna Sea Block A (op, 28.67%)

Producing
>30 kboepd

• Active well intervention programme • GSA1 market share increasing


• Net production > 17 kboepd currently • Improving gas price
• Ongoing reservoir optimisation • BIGP first gas 2019
• Crude sold at premium to Brent • Optimise exploitation of Lama gas

Long life, low opex assets


May 2018 | P7
UK production portfolio
• Reserves Huntington (op, 100%) Elgin-Franklin (5.2%) • One of the
upgrade UK’s largest
• FPSO lease producing fields
extended and • Long field life
rate reduced (COP 2035+)
• Looking at well • Active well
optimisation intervention
• Current programme
production UK • Exploration
c. 8 kboepd production upside
>50 kboepd
• High uptime; Solan (op, 100%) 2019-22 B Block (op, various) • Targeting
steady 5 kbopd deferral of COP
• Infill drilling to 2021
2020 • Continuing
• Potential 3rd positive cash
party business flow

Tax advantaged cash flows


May 2018 | P8
Catcher – the journey to first oil
What we achieved in 2017
• FPSO hull and topsides
completed and integrated
• Sailaway of FPSO from
Keppel yard
• HSE Acceptance of Safety
Case
• Drilling and completion of
6 wells
• Successful tie-in of wells
and deployment of
subsea control pods
• Hook up of STP buoy to
FPSO
• Successful pull in of all
risers, umbilicals and
installation of swivel stack

First Oil
achieved
23 Dec 17
May 2018 | P9
2017 successful full cycle delivery of Catcher
• Experienced project management
team in delivery of FPSO projects
On schedule

• World class contractors


Forecast total capex
30% below budget
• Early operations involvement in
project
Plateau production
• Collaborative and strong increased by 20%
relationship with key contractors
Industry leading
• Deployment of industry leading outcome on HSE
technology e.g. Geosteering

• Experienced well delivery team

• Subsurface design optimisation

• Favourable market conditions

May 2018 | P10


Catcher Area commissioning status

Oil Booster Gas Gas lift


Dec Jan Feb Mar May 60 kbopd
treatment gas treatment 2018 and export
2017 2018 2018 2018 production
plant compression plant compression

Operations
• Good uptime; oil plant up and stable
• Water injection commissioned
• Production levels reached >60 kbopd
• Gas export to start imminently
• All 3 fields on-stream and excellent
deliverability

May 2018 | P11


Catcher Area upside
Catcher North:
• 16 of 18 wells now completed Laverda:
Joint development
Tie-back via Varadero
with Laverda
– Latest Catcher well (CCP8)
higher net pay than prognosed
• Potential for reserves upside
– Conservative initial recovery
factor assumed
– Positive production test results
– Well-connected sands with
good pressure support
– Reservoir quality and sand
quantity above predictions Varadero Infill
made at sanction
• Infill drilling opportunities FPSO

– 4D seismic acquisition targeted


for 2019 Catcher Infill:
• Tie-back of near field discoveries Multiple future Cromarty
and Tay targets identified
– Laverda, Catcher North
Burgman Infill:
Burgman Far East target
Supported by seismic and well results
March 2018 | P12
Tolmount – high value project

Adds significant resource – 540 bcf Indicative production profile


boe equivalent
(100 mmboe) (kboepd)
60

Provides next phase of UK 50

growth – 50 kboepd peak production 40

30

Low capex requirement – $100m 20

(Premier’s share) 10

Low life of field total project cost – 0

$20/boe
Generates significant tax Tolmount

advantaged cash flows; >$1bn of net 48 km to terminal


cash flow
Holderness
Potential Area Recovery of c. 1Tcf Inshore MCZ

Holderness
Offshore MCZ

Onshore
Terminal

May 2018 | P13


Tolmount Main project update

2017 highlights
• Key terms agreed for funding of Tolmount facilities
• Draft Field Development Plan submitted to OGA
• Final documentation with selected contractors for platform construction,
pipeline and terminal modifications being completed
• Regulatory, environmental and planning statements submitted
for public consultation
• Project sanctioned scheduled for 2018 2H

Infrastructure joint venture Tolmount


Owners
• Dana and CML will jointly own
the platform and export pipeline Onshore
terminal
Drillex
25%
• Tolmount gas will use the 26%

facilities in return for production CAPEX


Sources
based tariff Owners
14%

• Premier’s share of total capex SURF


19%
Platform
reduced to $100m Infrastructure 16%

Owners

May 2018 | P14


Tolmount Area Development
Tolmount East
• Subsea well tie-back
• Sanction Tolmount Main
2018 • New 3D seismic over • 220 Bcf
Greater Tolmount Area • Extends Tolmount Main plateau
SW 42/28d-12 NE

• Construction of platform,
pipeline, onshore mods
2019
starts Gas water contact

• Appraise Tolmount East

Tolmount Tolmount East

• 1st development well on


2020 Tolmount Main
• Exploration well on TFE Mongour

• 3 development wells on
2021 Tolmount Main
• Sanction Tolmount East

Tolmount Far East (TFE)


• 150 Bcf
Tolmount Main • Subsea well tie-back
• 1st gas from Tolmount
2022
East development • NUI and 4 wells
• 540 Bcf 3rd party opportunities
• $100m (net) capex • Platypus
May 2018 | P15
Sea Lion – substantial progress
1 World scale resource 2 Proven development concept
160
• 1 bn bbls in new • Technically straightforward FPSO

Annual average oil rate


Phase 2
140
province Phase 1
120 development (similar to Catcher)
• Well understood • Extensive project development and
(kbopd)
100
reservoir 80 engineering complete
• Highly marketable 60
• Supply chain and logistics proven after
40
crude 20
drilling campaign
0
0 5 10 15 20
Years from first production

3 World class contractor team

• Experienced in comparable projects


• Leveraging on past relationships and delivery of Catcher
• Opportunity to lock in supply chain at competitive rates
• Contractor interest aligned via provision of vendor financing

4 Regulatory interface well-advanced Key metrics Sea Lion Ph1 Catcher


Development Plan FPSO+SPS FPSO+SPS
• Environmental Impact FPSO oil capacity 85 60
Statement public consultation FPSO liquid capacity 120 125
process nearing completion Drill Centres 1-2 3
• FDP substantially agreed; final
Total wells 23 19
update at sanction
Producers 16 15
• Alignment with FIG on key
Injectors 6 4
fiscal, commercial and
regulatory items Pre-first oil capex $1.5bn $1.3bn
Reserves/resource 220 96
May 2018 | P16
Sea Lion 2018 targets

• Select preferred contractors and


secure vendor financing
– LOIs signed for c. $1.5 bn of total Owners
Costs
contracts value
• Drilling rig
• Well services >$400m
Pre-first
• Subsea equipment Oil capex
of vendor Subsea Wells
$1.5bn
• Subsea installation loan
notes
services
• Logistical support

• Secure senior debt funding


– Export credit agencies and
project finance providers
• Working towards year-end final 25% 25%
Upstream 50% Vendor
investment decision partnership
Export credit /
financing
bank
finance

May 2018 | P17


Refocused exploration portfolio
• Repositioned towards emerging plays in Prospect Y
proven hydrocarbon provinces
– Early success in Mexico at Zama; Prospect Z
looking to increase acreage footprint
– Managed position in Brazil to focus
on Ceara Basin; high impact
prospectivity identified
– Capture of Andaman II licence Prospect X

offshore Indonesia Early mapping of Andaman II 3Km

• Retained high value infrastructure led


Andaman II location map
exploration opportunities close to P&D
assets
• Exited frontier and mature areas
• Rationalised E.ON portfolio
• Significantly reduced commitments

May 2018 | P18


Mexico
• 2015: Awarded Blocks 2 and 7 in Mexico Round 1.1
Potential appraisal
• 2016: Increased interest in Block 7 to 25%
locations
• 2017: Zama-1 discovery made on Block 7
– 400-800 mmbbls1 (P90-P10); API 30°
• 2018: Awarded 3 blocks in Mexico Round 3.1
– Block 30 (Sureste Basin); Blocks 11 and 13 (Burgos Basin)
• 2018/2019: Zama appraisal programme
– Pemex to spud Asab-1 in Q3 2018 3
1
Zama

1. Northern, tests OWC,


water sample
2. Southern, tests
reservoir continuity/
variability 2
3. Crestal, DST, isopach
thick (potential
location of Asab-1
Pemex well)

1 includes those volumes that extends into the neighbouring block


Indicative full field Zama development

Indicative development metrics


• P50 resource 600 mmbbls
• Capex +/- $1.8bn (operator
estimates)
• Peak production 100-150 kboepd
• First oil 2022/23

Appraisal and 2020 2022/3


2018 2019 FEED Development
pre-FEED FID First oil

May 2018 | P20


Wahoo, Block 30, a Zama Analogue?

Zama Block 7 seismic at time of licensing (2015)


Wahoo Block Block 30 seismic at time of licensing (2018)

Wahoo flat spot

1. Identical trapping
geometry
2. Down dip
amplitude shut off
3. Similar age
reservoirs
Zama flat spot
4. Evidence of a clear
flat spot
Tuna, Indonesia (65%, operator)

Highlights
• Discovered in 2014; >90 mmboe
• Evaluation of potential development
scenarios ongoing
• Government agreement signed with
Vietnam and Indonesian governments re:
connection to existing infrastructure in
Vietnam
• Farm out process launched ahead of
2019 appraisal campaign
• Granted 3 year extension to exploration
period of licence

May 2018 | P22


Ceara Basin, Brazil
• High impact prospects in stacked targets
matured for drilling
2 well
– Berimbau/Maraca (Block 717) programme
– 661 Itarema/Tatajuba (Block 661) targeting
>2 Bn bbls
• Drilling operations planned for late STOIIP
2019/2020
• Option to extend licences until July 2021

Block 717 Block 661


A B B A B B
1-CES-075 4-CES-128

1-CES-160
N
A 10km

038 Maastrichtian/
Campanian

Itarema Complex 041 Turonian/


Berimbau 041 Turonian/ Cenomanian
Cenomanian
Tatajuba 044 Albian
044 Albian

090 Trairi 061 Aptian


Maraca K40 A
10km

090 Trairi
8km Data Proprietary to PGS Investigacoa Petrolifera Limitada
8km Data Proprietary to PGS Investigacoa Petrolifera Limitada

May 2018 | P23


Financials
Hedging

Hedging policy
• 30-50% of future oil and gas volumes on a rolling 12-18 month basis
• Minimum required under lender agreement is 20% 60% of
2018 oil
Liquids hedging production
• Progressively increased as oil price rose exposed to
• 50% of 2018 oil production hedged upside

UK gas hedging
• 27 per cent of remaining 2018 UK gas volumes hedged at an average price of 45 pence/therm

Oil hedging Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019

Swaps / Volumes 40% 40% 40% 28% 28% 21%


Forwards

Av. price $58/bbl $60/bbl $60 /bbl $66/bbl $67/bbl $67/bbl

• Additional options in Q2 and Q3 2018 with an average floor price of $56.3/bbl


May 2018 | P25
Portfolio management
• Seek opportunities with strategic fit
within existing geographic units
– Focus on operated long-life assets
– Material working interest
– Critical mass locally
– UK tax optimisation
– Covenant accretive
• Dispose of non-core assets to
accelerate debt repayment

2018 highlights and outlook


• Announced sale of Babbage Area assets to Verus
– Net cash proceeds of $64 million
– Verus will take on exploration commitments valued
at $24 million
• Sale of interest in Kakap completed
• ETS asset sale expected to complete in June
• Completion of the sale of Pakistan to Al-Haj Group
remains subject only to approvals from Pakistani authorities

May 2018 | P26


2018 FCF profile, capex and abandonment
2018 P&D capex ($m)
• Stable operating cost base at $17-18/boe
• P&D, exploration & abex spend of $380m 120
– Continuing to defer COP dates across
portfolio 80
– UK tax history shelters UK abandonment
costs 40
• Early exchange of convertible bonds
• Debt reduction accelerates through year 0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
– Q1 free cash flow neutral; significant
debt reduction forecast in H2 with
Catcher on plateau 2018 P&D capex and exploration ($m)
300
• Return balance sheet to investment grade
metrics by year-end 2018
– Covenant leverage ratio forecast to fall 200
to 3x EBITDA by year end at current oil
prices 100

-
UK producing BIGP Chim Sao Catcher Tolmount, Exploration
Sea Lion

May 2018 | P27


2017 Financials
12 months to 12 months to Realised prices 2017 2016
31 Dec 2017 31 Dec 2016
Oil (post hedge)
Production (kboepd) 75.0 71.4 52.1 52.2
($/bbl)
Opex per Barrel ($/boe) 16.4 15.8
UK gas (p/therm) 47.2 47.6
Indonesia gas
P&L and cash flow $m $m 8.4 7.8
($/mmscf)
Sales revenue 1,102 983
Production (kboepd)
Net (loss)/profit (254) 123 40
2017 2016
30
Operating cash flow 496 431
20
Interest and fees (309) (152)
10
Capex (275) (663)
0
Abandonment (26) (16) UK Indonesia Vietnam Pakistan
Decom pre-funding (17) (61) Opex ($/boe)
Disposals/(Acquisitions) 202 (119) 30
2017 2016
Net cash flow 71 (580) 20

Balance sheet 10

Accounting net debt 2,724 2,765 0


UK Indonesia Vietnam Pakistan
May 2018 | P28
May 2018

www.premier-oil.com

Premier Oil Plc


23 Lower Belgrave Street
London
SW1W 0NR

Tel: +44 (0)20 7730 1111


Fax: +44 (0)20 7730 4696
Email: premier@premier-oil.com

You might also like