Future of Cities

Insights from Multiple

Expert Discussions
Around the World

1
Context

2
Cities are often places of great energy and optimism. They are where most of us
choose to live work and interact with others. As a result, cities are where innovation
happens, where ideas are formed from which economic growth largely
stems. Although wrestling with difficult challenges, sometimes individually but more
often collectively, cities are able to address some of the most significant challenges
facing society today. City councils around the world are reducing air pollution, banning
diesel cars, introducing smoking bans, bicycle rental schemes and even imposing
sugar taxes in order to help citizens make better lifestyle choices. Often nimbler than
nation states, cities such as Paris, London, Mexico City, Aspen and Copenhagen are
becoming test-beds for innovation that is then shared from one to another. There is
much to be done and many city leaders are working on the challenges.

However, as a steadily rising global population The Future Agenda team facilitated twelve high-
approaches 70% urbanization, the problems are now level discussions in different cities around the world
accelerating. City leaders today have to react quickly to explore this topic. This document provides an
to accommodate vast influxes of people. There are analysis of these and associated discussions and
many priorities; the provision of basic services - aims to provide context, highlight issues and provide
housing, water, sanitation, schools and hospitals; the insights around some of the key opportunities for
establishment and maintenance of effective transport positive change.
and technology infrastructures; the delivery of fair and
effective policing; and the creation of an attractive
business environment. The list is considerable. Now,
perhaps more than ever, city leaders are seeking to
better understand, share and explore options and
future directions. No two cities are the same, so
there is no universal blueprint on how best to design,
manage and support urban growth. But experiences
can be shared, lessons learned, models debated and
new perspectives discussed.

3
The Future Agenda

The Future Agenda programme explores the key process that has provided even greater depth for
issues facing society globally over the next 10 years. the analysis which can be found in our final ‘Future
Its aim is to use workshops and discussion forums Agenda: The World in 2025’ reports.1
to identify ways in which systems will function,
In order to gain as diverse a view as possible about
consumers will behave and governments will regulate
the future of cities, workshops were not only held in
over the next decade. It was created by Growth
established urban centres such Singapore, Dubai,
Agenda to give all organisations, large or small, the
Delhi, Mumbai, London and Toronto but also we
opportunity to access insights that will help them
visited less high profile locations including Beirut,
decide on future strategy.
now a destination for many of the 2m refugees
In addition to discussions on the Future of Cities, from neighbouring countries; Christchurch, still
during 2015/16 120 other workshops were held in recovering from a devastating earthquake in 2011;
45 locations to explore more than 20 critical issues and Guayaquil, the fast-growing Pacific port-city
facing society. These included the future of data, the in Ecuador. The resulting discussions between
future of health and healthcare, the future of transport informed individuals from across academia,
and of work. These workshops helped to support, business, government and NGOs brought together
enrich and challenge initial perspectives given by leading views on how urban development may need
leading experts to the Future Agenda programme. In to change and adapt for the future.
turn the insights from these sessions were published
and shared widely. As a result, we have received
further feedback from those outside the workshop

4
Summary Insights
Although some points were specific to individual locations, a number of issues were
shared across all the discussions. We also heard different views on how the future
development of the urban environment should take place.

Common Managing Countering Sustainable

Challenges Migration Inequality Scaling

Shared Healthy Accessible Intelligent

Ambitions Cities Cities Cities

Emerging Safe Resilient Collaborative

Concerns Cities Cities Co-opetition

There are three common challenges:

Managing Migration: Intelligent Cities:

• The facilitation of internal and international migration • To use data, connectivity and analytics more
to cities is set to be one of the defining shifts of the effectively to make buildings, infrastructure and
21st century. citizens smarter and cities more efficient.
Countering Inequality: In addition, three emerging concerns are being
• Providing equitable access to all elements of urban debated in a number of locations:
life including transport, sanitation, healthcare,
education and work to facilitate economic growth Safe Cities:
and cement social stability. • Whether it is to prevent terrorism, defend against
Sustainable Scaling: infrastructure-focused cyber-attacks or deal with
increased crime, the need for citizens to feel safe is
• Ensuring the sustainable development of
becoming more pervasive.
infrastructure, the reduction of pollution and the
creation of a safe, healthy environment in a time of Resilient Cities:
accelerated urban expansion. • The imperative to reconfigure infrastructures that
are able to withstand the likely impact of climate
Equally, in many cities there are a number of change and the increasing number of natural
shared future ambitions: disasters is a growing concern. Adaptation is
Healthy Cities: currently the priority over longer-term mitigation.
• To reduce pollution - especially air pollution - improve Collaborative Co-opetition:
access to clean water, sanitation and healthcare so • Managing partnership and competition to establish
that fewer die from preventable causes. the right balance between sharing experience,
Accessible Cities: insights and ideas for the future while recognizing
increasing economic competition between locations.
• To plan cities that provide better public transport
services and to create more walkable areas which
are accessible for all.
5
Preface
These days the number of mega-cities (those with populations over 10m) is growing
across the globe. By 2030 there will be around 40 and 9% of us will live in one.2
The established conurbations of the 20th century such as New York, London and
Tokyo have already been joined by New Delhi, Istanbul, Mumbai, Shanghai and Sao
Paulo and by 2050 we will probably add Karachi, Lagos, Jakarta and Dubai to name
but a few. Expect their success or failure to become a key area of government and
regulatory focus.

Cities grow because they are a focus for the sheer numbers of people needing a home that
opportunity. As dynamic centres of commerce, drives up land and property values, sometimes
cultural eclecticism and knowledge, they are regulation designed for different times, such as
magnets for all walks of life, frequently attracting limits on the height and density of buildings, or
the best minds, the ambitious, the brave, the constraints on development, can also inflate prices
optimistic but also the desperate. and force workers towards cheaper, but often less
productive, locations. Changing these regulatory
Often cities have gained status in their respective
conditions could make a material difference not only
regions as safe havens for those escaping
to economies but also to general wellbeing. One
persecution and war, or among those simply
study, for example, suggests that in America alone,
seeking a new and better life. The eclectric mix of
lifting all the barriers to urban growth could raise the
cultures that results is in part responsible for the
country’s GDP by between 6.5% and 13.5%, or by
consequent plethora of transformational ideas, novel
between $1trillion and $2trillion.3 It is difficult to think
technologies, and new ways of doing business,
of many other single policy initiatives that would yield
from London to New York, Istanbul to Hong Kong.
anything similar.
Despite the media focus on international migration
as a driver for change in the last forty years; large While many benefit from the productivity of cities
scale, internal, rural-urban relocation has also been and the 85% of global GDP that they currently
a powerful engine behind the growth of many cities, generate, a third of the world’s urban population
particularly across Asia, Africa and Latin America. live in unplanned ghettos, townships and favelas.
Cities are often polluted, pricey, over-congested and
But urban population growth is bringing new
housing everyone is an increasingly major headache
challenges even as we try and cope with the more
– both in the West just as much as everywhere else.
traditional concerns around jobs and education.
London’s most populous borough, Islington, has a
Increasing migration has driven change in living
peak population density of 13,890/km2. This may
patterns, living spaces and home-ownership
seem cramped but, when compared to Kamathipura
models as growing demand and limited supply
in Mumbai, where there are over 120,000 people per
makes housing prohibitively expensive. It’s not just
square km, it looks decidedly spacious.

6
Further, as city populations and densities grow, so This document provides an overview of what we
too does the pressure on ageing urban infrastructures heard. It has three objectives:
and the environment. More people in cities means
1. To reflect the views of informed people from many
greater need for localised travel, for example. Over-
locations on the future of cities
stretched transport systems need to be updated in
an efficient and sustainable manner. Simply allowing 2. To link these thoughts to the research that has
an increasing number of vehicles in confined spaces already been carried out; and
has meant that air pollution has become a significant
health issue across the globe from London and Los 3. To prompt further debate on some gaps and issues
Angeles to Delhi and Beijing. that seem as yet unresolved.

The prospect of flooding is also causing concern. The We hope that it is a useful contribution for all those
majority of major cities are built on the coast, or on a interested in designing cities for the future and helps
river, so rising ocean temperatures caused by climate to bring together a broader range of global views.
change are an increasing threat to infrastructure.
All of this before we even start thinking about jobs,
education and healthcare.

It is clear that many cities are under growing

pressure. How can we ensure they evolve in a way
that enhances the quality of life for those who live
in them? How will we provide for a more socially
balanced society? How can we make cities resilient
to the challenges of climate change? Is there a better
approach to efficient and more collaborative living?
And in what ways can cities best embrace innovation
and new technologies such as smart data, to help
meet the challenges?

Over the past decade or so, we have seen a

burgeoning of interest in the challenge and opportunity
from city design and development. Many universities,
numerous governments, multiple consultancies
and a good number of leading multinationals all
have research programmes, innovation centres and
investment strategies focused on the topic. Indeed,
we know of over 500 recent reports covering a wide
range of urban issues, and there will be many more.

Most agree that the problems, albeit differently

constituted, are clear, but the complexity of
urban development defies simple solutions.
Given this, the Future Agenda Future of Cities
discussions were robust, challenging and lengthy.4

7
Common Challenges
Across our discussions a number of issues were raised repeatedly and focused
on three significant, inter-related, macro-drivers of change. We see these as the
common challenges impacting the majority of the world’s cities.

Managing
Migration

Common
Challanges

Sustainable Countering
Scaling Inequality

8
 CHALLENGE 1: Managing Migration
The facilitation of internal and international
migration to cities is set to be one of the defining
features of 21st century city management.

Over the past 30 years, the world’s urban population

has risen from 1.6 billion to 3.9 billion. In the next 20
years it is expected to surpass 6 billion, with most
of the growth now taking place in cities developing
countries, those in Africa particularly. Growing
migration to cities in most regions is set to be one
of the defining shifts taking place for the rest of the
century. If managed successfully, accommodating
this vast influx of people has the potential to generate
huge growth and stimulate an expanding middle
class enjoying better living standards; but getting
it wrong will set the scene for worsening pollution,
urban sprawl, congestion, increasing inequality and
rising social tension. Many governments are nervous.
Only a few feel able to absorb all new arrivals, many
of which may be unplanned and unforeseeable. The
majority, it seems, have only limited contingency
strategies in place. A key question will be around
how urban planners best manage a transition to
migration readiness?

THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION OF THE WORLD, 1950-2030

9.0 World, total population

8.0 World, urban population

World, rural population
7.0
Population (thousands)

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source (i)

9
Pace of Change Coping Strategies

According to the LSE Cities research project, The scale and pace of this movement is having a
around 32 people every hour, day and night, are huge social, cultural and political impact. Changes
now moving into Shanghai, 39 into Kinshasa and that used to take centuries are now occurring in only
Jakarta, 42 into Mumbai and Karachi, 50 into Dhaka a few decades, generating huge challenges, including
and 58 into Lagos.5 This is all pretty much one- unplanned slums, excessive pollution, destruction of
way traffic, is happening 24/7 and shows no sign the environment and gaping inequality. Such is the
of slowing down. There are many reasons for this magnitude of these challenges, some governments
ranging from the desire for a better quality of life or have become doubtful of their ability to cope
the need to flee conflict to escape the impacts of and have tried to either slow the process down
climate change or the desire to find a release from or disperse the problem. As far back as 2013, a
the grinding harshness of rural life. UN study6 of all 193 member-states found that 80%
had policies to reduce rural to urban migration. This
is more pronounced in poorer countries. 88% of the
least developed countries reported they wished to
reduce the rate of migration to urban areas.

Given the amount of change underway, many cities

are being forced to rethink how they plan their
infrastructure and services to cope with fast-rising
and yet sometimes statistically invisible populations.
Some policies have been designed to slow or halt
the rural-urban migration. These range from China’s
infamous ‘hukou’ system of residency rights to rural
tax and investment incentive schemes in places like
Mozambique. Others try to address urban sprawl
by, for example, scrapping height restrictions on
buildings. One tangible problem is creating enough
space for roads: Manhattan is 36% tarmac compared
to some unplanned African suburbs where as
little as 5% of the land is road. In Saudi Arabia the
government has decided to build entirely new super-
cities to ease the pressures of the rapid growth of
Jeddah and Riyadh, and the Egyptian government
is following suit, establishing 20 new cities to divert
people away from Cairo. It has plans for 45 more,
including a 700 sq. km new capital ’New Cairo’.

In many countries, regulation lags behind urbanisation,

which often means that basic services, like schools,
transportation, public spaces and land rights, are not
being properly delivered to the millions of people living
in informal urban settlements, in part because of the
speed of urban growth. Although the ambition is to
plan for a better infrastructure, many urban leaders
are taking too long to do so, which means that by the
time a plan has been agreed, large-scale immigration
and the consequent muddle of rambling, informal
development has already taken place.

10
Success in Parts that output. Looking ahead, the McKinsey Global
Institute estimates that this is expected to grow to
Some countries have been more successful. China
65% over the next 15 years. This is equivalent to
for example, in an attempt to accommodate the rush
around 6% of projected global GDP growth, more
to the cities, has spent 8.5% of its national income
than 1.5 times the contribution expected from large
on infrastructure each year for the last 35 years,
cities in Western Europe, and closer to the growth
far more than Europe and America (2.6%) or India
contribution anticipated from India’s large cities.
(3.9%). Yet even there, many cities still cannot cope
with the speed of urban development which has, The African subcontinent faces different challenges.
quite literally, supersized them, seemingly overnight. It is the only region where urbanization does not
Many of them were large already, and now more correlate with poverty reduction. For the last two
than 100 have populations exceeding one million. decades’ urban growth has been around 3.5%
a year. In part this was caused by migration
China also has true “megacities”, those whose
but looking ahead natural demographic growth
populations exceed 10m. Of the 30 cities
due to higher birth rates and lower childhood
worldwide that match this definition, it boasts six:
mortality is expected by some to double by 2050
Shanghai (23m), Beijing (19.5m), Chongqing (13m),
and quadruple by 2100, and is likely to make an
Guangzhou (12m), Shenzhen (11m) and Tianjin (11m).
increasingly significant economic contribution. To
A further ten contain 5 to 10m people. At least one
date, planners have done little to accommodate
of these, Wuhan, will pass 10m within a decade. In
the influx. According to UN–Habitat 61.7% of urban
addition, 3,500 new urban areas are planned in the
Africans in sub Saharan Africa live in a slum where
next few years. Massive spending on infrastructure
only 40% of residents have access to a proper
has hugely improved connections. But congestion
toilet, a figure which has not changed since 1990..In
is appalling, air pollution a real health hazard and
Nairobi, around two thirds of the population occupy
perhaps more importantly in the Chinese context,
6% of the land. The relative prosperity in North
residents are complaining. To address this in April
African countries is mainly attributed to better urban
2017 the Central Committee and State Council
development strategies, including investment in
announced plans for a completely new city,
infrastructure and in upgrading urban settlements.
Xiongan, 100 km SW of Beijing. Planned to be three
But bad planning means that, overall, many cities
times the size of New York this will be designated
are growing unsustainably faster in size than in
a Special Economic Zone and is intended to be a
population. Lagos, the capital of Nigeria, is typical:
model for future urban design, placing particular
it doubled in population between 1990 and 2010
emphasis on innovative development, ecological
but tripled in area.
protection and improving people’s well being.
Between 1980 and 2010, the population of
Turning to Latin America, a UN-Habitat report
S.E. Asia’s cities grew at an unprecedented
suggests that the urban transition, as traditionally
scale - by around one billion. United Nations
conceived, is almost complete. Despite paying a
projections suggest they will add another billion
significant social, economic and environmental cost
by 2040. Recent economic successes have lifted
for this, today almost 80% of the South American
hundreds of millions of people out of poverty and
population live in a city and there are high hopes
created a rapidly growing urban middle class that
that they will experience a “new cycle of urban
now numbers almost 2 billion people. Nevertheless,
transition”, heralding improved living conditions
it is also home to the world’s largest urban slum
and a better quality of life. The report argues that,
populations and the largest concentrations of
thanks to devolution of planning, local governments
people living below the poverty line
now have valuable experience that bodes well for
the ability to face the future.7 The region’s 198 large
cities - defined as having populations of 200,000
or more - together contribute over 60% of current
GDP. The ten largest cities alone generate half of

11
International Migration Positive Migration

Much of this growth can be attributed to rural to Elsewhere, public attitudes to migration are more
urban migration but international migration is also on sympathetic. When we ran our Beirut workshops in
the rise. Together Asian and Middle East cities added 2016, the inflow of refugees from Syria to Lebanon
more international immigrants than either Europe had just passed 1.5m. Added to the 500,000
or North America between 2000 and 2015. Many Palestinian refugees already in the country, that made
are often relatively localised as migrants often still a migrant population of 2m in a total of only 6m by
want to remain in touch with their origins, keeping the middle of 2016 - there was 1 refugee for every 2
a common language for example For instance, the Lebanese nationals. This put into context the 2015
World Bank estimates that 1.5 million migrants from European resistance to 1m refugees being absorbed
Burkina Faso live in the Ivory Coast - that makes by a population of 500m. Yet, Beirut does not seem
Burkinabe immigrants more numerous than Indians to be distracted from its core focus on growth and
in Britain or Turks in Germany. In India there are development and is steadfastly seeking to follow
more immigrants from Bangladesh than there are a master plan to complete the rejuvenation of its
Mexicans in America. Central District and makes the city better for all.9

Contrary to many media reports, and with the In truth, while concerns around cultural dilution,
important exception of many European nations and instability and crime intensify populist agendas,
the US, the general public is more likely to be in favour for nations with naturally declining domestic
of migration than against it, according to findings populations (primarily in Europe and the US), there
of an IOM-Gallup report.8 However in much of the is really no long-term option but to support the
West, the fear of an influx of low-skilled workers has economic immigration lever. Certainly many who
become an increasingly contentious, even hostile, participated in the Future Agenda discussions see
political issue. Voters in host countries often perceive migration not only as a ‘gap-filling’ force in the short
migrants as a threat to their livelihoods and living term but also a foundation for sustained future
standards. Many in the US are, for example, wary of growth. They also suggested that increasing cultural
incomers and there is fierce debate raging whether diversity brings understanding and so makes
migrants hold down the wages of native workers. In nations more influential on the world stage. This
Britain this argument is also made, but alongside this is supported by the OECD view which states that
there is added popular discourse around migrants migrants contribute to labour-market flexibility, pay
putting pressure on public services, particularly more in taxes than they receive in benefits, boost
the nationalised health service. Although shown by the working age population, bring in new skills, add
many experts to be, at the very least, debatable, this to human capital and fill importance niches in new
is what many in the UK firmly believe to be true. and old sectors.10

12
CHALLENGE 2: Countering Inequality
Providing equitable access to all elements areas of highest inequality are the mega-cites.14 A
of urban life including transport, sanitation, coefficient of zero equates to perfect equality while
healthcare, education and work to facilitate one of 100% represents maximum inequality. The
economic growth and cement social stability. cities of Rio de Janeiro, Bangkok and Sao Paulo
all have coefficients over 50%. Not far behind in
“While cities are powerful engines of opportunity,
the rankings come Moscow, Shanghai, New York,
innovation, and progress, they are also home to
Mexico City, Los Angeles and London. South Africa
growing concentrations of poverty and vulnerability.”
is the most unequal country with a GINI coefficient
– Carrie Thompson, USAID, 2016.11
over 60%.
Although economic globalization has created great
Over the past few decades’ inequality between
wealth, it is increasingly clear that its benefits are very
countries has also become an issue. In 2002
unevenly distributed. Affluence has accumulated at
Americans were, on average, nine times richer than
the very top of the income scale while the wages
Latin Americans, 72 times richer than sub-Saharan
paid for service and manufacturing jobs have
Africans, and 80 times richer than south Asians.
stagnated or declined.12,13 Increasingly, we are
beginning to understand the harms that this does to
society, and yet it seems to have become an almost
inevitable part of the story of development. With
more people moving to cities, so widening
differences in access to housing, transport,
sanitation, healthcare, education and jobs
continue to extend the gap between rich and
poor. And although migrant communities may
suffer most, urban inequality is rising independent
of the numbers of new arrivals.

The GINI coefficient, the most commonly used

measure of inequality, shows that some of the

CITIES WITH HIGHEST GINI COEFFIENTS

1. Salvador 65% 9. St Petersburg 48%

2. Rio de Janeiro 62% 10. New York 47%
3. Sao Paulo 55% 11. Mexico City 46%
4. Bangkok 54% 12. Los Angeles 45%
5. Bogota 53% 13. Shanghai 44%
6. Santiago 52% 14. Chicago 44%
7. Moscow 50% 15. London 44%
8. Tbilisi 49%
Source (ii)

13
How Much is Enough? efficient, safe and affordable transport system that
enables people to easily get to school or to work is
The key question is how much inequality society
therefore a vital component of social integration. A
can accommodate. Many believe we are at a
successful example of this can be seen in Bogotá
tipping point, with organisations such as the World
which now has the highest literacy rate in Latin
Economic Forum suggesting it now poses a material
America, in part because its transport policies have
risk to the continued strength of the global economy.
taken the locations of public schools into account.
Clearly more could be done to address the problem.
A Rich Country Problem Too
In terms of urban development, spatial design
has a significant role to play. To date many urban Urban inequality is not simply a developing world
projects, large and small, have contributed to the problem. The United States ranks poorly compared
physical reinforcement of inequality; the proliferation to other advanced economies when it comes to
of gated communities is a very good example, as is income inequality and social mobility. Across the
the scarcity of basic infrastructure in poorer districts. Americas the United States has one of the
Looking ahead, planners need to include integrated highest rates of child poverty and comes second
design as a way to assimilate poorer communities only to Brazil in terms of the percentage of children
into wider city life without compromising the ongoing living in poor households. As well as having the
development of the city. largest number of millionaires in the country, New
York City also has neighbourhoods such as Harlem
Inequality is not only about money; more importantly
and the Bronx where average incomes are well
perhaps it is also about access to services such as
below the official poverty threshold. The decline
health and education. Poor access to education,
in manufacturing, the legacy of racial segregation
for example, has been identified as being one of
policies and the over concentration of the poor in
the main limits to social development. As LSE’s
central urban areas are all partially to blame for this.
Professor Ricky Burdett recently pointed out, “If one
takes education levels of the population in different The Influence/Need Gap
parts of the city, the quality of education utterly
Although many Future Agenda discussions focus
correlates with the availability of, and accessibility to,
on those living below the poverty line, in Singapore
transit facilities, whether a subway, bus, rapid transit
it was highlighted that governments are often
system, or bicycle network. In other words, the
made up of the wealthy elite, many of whom
better the infrastructure, the higher the educational
are out of touch with wider societal needs.
levels. It is fundamental to remember that decisions
This can be exacerbated by the extent of influence
made about whether to invest in one form of public
the wealthy are able to extend over government
transport over another have an impact on the way
policy including those concerned with planning
our children and grandchildren are educated.”15 An

14
and shaping cities.16 The power of wealth is homes to key workers resulted in a benefit to the
evident across many industries of course, some capital’s economy of £27,000 per household, not
of which impact city planning and development. A just through their spending power but their wider
2015 Oxfam report noted that 20% of the world’s contribution to the economy, which far exceeds the
1,645 billionaires have interests in the financial and salary they take home. To cite one example, a nurse
insurance sectors, a group which spends millions will treat thousands of patients a year, getting them
on lobbying policymakers in Washington and back to health and into the workplace.19
Brussels and on political campaign contributions,
Bringing highly skilled workers to an area is
and which saw its cash wealth increase by 11%
not enough to guarantee high wages in a city;
in the 12 months to March 2014.17 Some see that
the right firms must come too. Knowledge-
this sort of overt influence is unfair and undermines
intensive industries such as technology and finance
the democratic process; others are more sanguine
thrive on the clustering of workers who share ideas
believing that the overt power of the rich has always
and expertise. The economies and populations
been part and parcel of life. They suggest that
of metropolises like London, New York and San
people in general care less about inequality than
Francisco have flourished because of this. Success
they do about economic opportunity, so the focus
often attracts success; so wealthy cities typically
should be on avoiding stagnation, particularly of
attract multiple high profile, high paying firms such as
the middle classes, and not curbing the excesses
Apple and Google in London or Microsoft in Beijing.
of the very rich. The real question, of course, is
Successful companies pay more, so their workers
whether we can actually ignore the rich, or whether
have more to spend on their homes and in their local
in accommodating them, or leaving them be, we are
community. Some cities are more attractive than
actually prevented from catering for the poor.
others in this regard; McKinsey identifies just 32
Attracting the Highly Skilled which it expects will generate one-quarter of the $23
trillion in urban consumption growth projected from
Attracting highly skilled workers to a city often
2015 to 2030.20
leads to improvement in local amenities, such as
the quality of schools, and cultural and entertainment
opportunities. Theoretically this has the potential to
benefit both the rich and the poor. However, often
when an area becomes more attractive, more people
want to live there and this has a knock on impact
on the availability and affordability of housing supply.
Affordable accommodation can sometimes become
beyond the reach of low skilled workers. Even those
who have, relatively speaking, well-paid jobs can
become ‘priced out’ and so many up-and-coming
cities risk becoming islands for the rich, and too
expensive for the poor. Key workers such as carers,
cleaners and policemen are obliged to move away,
while those who need to, and are prepared to, work in
city centres, often face a long and arduous commute.

Cities need workers at all levels, not just the

professional elites. Concerns are growing about
how to rebalance the situation, with many planners
exploring measures to stop high house prices driving
a working class exodus from urban areas.18 In London
a recent report by the University of Westminster and
Dolphin Living found that providing subsidised rental

15
Without concentrated action, rising inequality will Joined-up Resources
continue to have a destabilising impact on many
Given the inter-relationships between financial
societies, and especially on urban areas. Inequality
inequality and unequal access to transport,
narrows the tax base from which municipalities raise
healthcare, and education, it is clear that urban
the revenues needed to provide essential public
policy has to be increasingly integrated across
services. It also weakens the collective political will to
multiple silos and, in most cities, this demands
make social and infrastructure investments. What’s
a far greater level of joined up action than has
more, it makes it even more expensive to be poor
occurred in the recent past.
by limiting access to services and raising the price
of private-sector goods and services. To take one As income inequality has risen sharply so the
example, without access to the mains supply, many need to design a fairer city has become more
living in poverty are obliged to drink bottled water at pressing. An increase in social housing alongside
over 100 times the cost of tap water.21 In this way, the limiting population density and creating better public
problems of inequality are compounded. spaces can make a difference, as will providing wider
access to basic services such as banking, education
In the US the decline in manufacturing, the legacy of
and healthcare.23 Mixed-income redevelopment
racial segregation policies and the over concentration
in high poverty neighborhoods, along with the
of the poor in central urban areas are all partially to
movement of poor people out of concentrated public
blame for increased rates of poverty.22 Furthermore,
housing will also help. But to what extent, some ask,
the low-skilled, but good-wage jobs on factory lines
can we engineer a more balanced society primarily
that many used to climb out of poverty in the 20th
from a planning perspective and how much will it be
century have largely disappeared. The question of
driven by a wider collection of actions?
how to offer opportunities to those who currently
have none, will be one of the defining challenges of
the next several decades.

16
CHALLENGE 3: Sustainable Scaling
Ensuring the sustainable development of urban sprawl. It’s not just the number of people,
infrastructure, the reduction of pollution and changes in living patterns and family and household
the creation of a safe, healthy environment in a composition mean that the size of households in
time of accelerated urban expansion. most countries is now decreasing putting further
strain on housing stock. Partly because of this, many
As the urban population and long-term de-
cities are growing faster in size than in population.
densification trends continue, the area of the
planet covered by urban settlements will It is perhaps in Africa where, with it’s fast rising
increase to more than 3 million sq. km between population and ongoing shift to city living, that the
2010 and 2050.24 Globally, never before have we challenge of sustainable scaling is most significant.
seen such fast scaling of urban environments. If we It is the world’s fastest urbanising continent. In
are to avoid replicating the errors of LA, Las Vegas, 1950, sub-Saharan Africa had no cities with
Houston, Mexico City and their like, then cities must populations of more than 1m. Today, it has
be planned sustainably. around 50. The fastest growing metropolises, such
as Nairobi, are expanding at rates of more than 4%
Most cities are messy sprawling places extending
per year compared to the average global urban
almost endlessly outwards. Even those we consider
population growth rate of 1.84% a year.25 Looking
successful, such as Melbourne or Vienna are
at specific cities the numbers can be eye watering.
buckling under pressure to accommodate the
Antananarivo, capital of Madagascar is growing at
sheer volume of people moving in and the problems
5.1% a year while Abuja and Port Harcourt in Nigeria
that this entails: pollution, congestion and social
are ticking along at 6.2% and 5.1% respectively.
cohesion, for example. Addressing these is, or
Ouagadougo, capital of Burkina Faso, is experiencing
should be, a priority.
population growth of 7.2% while Mbouda in
For some with natural physical boundaries such Cameroon is the continent’s fastest growing city
as Mumbai and Manila, the implication of this is at 7.8% annually. Unsurprisingly governments are
a relentless rise in population density; for others finding it difficult to provide residents with even
like Cairo, São Paulo and Karachi, unencumbered the most basic services of housing, water supply,
by physical constraints, the risk is of relentless sewerage and solid waste disposal.

FASTING GROWING CITIES. Estimated Urban Growth 2016 to 2025

Zinder, Niger 67.6%
Bujumbura, Burundi 67.4%
Lokoja, Nigeria 65.4%
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso 61.9%
Mwanza, Tanzania 60.9%
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 58.9%
Nnewi, Nigeria 58.2%
Bamako, Mali 57.5%
Lubango, Angola 56.8%
Uyo, Nigeria 56.4%
Abuja, Nigeria 56.3%
Source (iii)

17
The core problem is that these metropolises are expansion area planning would allow for changes
spreading indiscriminately. In Africa land ownership in the way streets can be built and the necessary
is often made up of a patchwork of smallholders, so infrastructure installed. The model should be simple,
developments emerge wherever a deal can be made. efficient and flexible, attractive to residents and
In the jumbled districts that result, far too little space simultaneously economically competitive. Experts
is set aside for roads, parks and other “liveable” point to densely populated cities like Paris
amenities. Even middle-class districts often lack and Hong Kong as the potential blueprints
sewers and mains water. No one even mentions for sustainable living rather than the distributed
public parks. Inevitably this will have consequences. sprawls of Los Angeles and Mexico City. After all,
Shlomo Angel of New York University has studied dense living creates efficiencies - Hong Kong uses
seven African cities in detail: Accra, Addis Ababa, around 5% of its GDP to move people and goods
Arusha, Ibadan, Johannesburg, Lagos and Luanda. around; in LA the figure is over 40%.
He calculates that only 16% of the land in new
Given several of the metropolises in Asia and the
residential areas developed since 1990 has been
Middle East are effectively being built from scratch,
set aside for roads - about half as much as planners
the opportunity exists to get scaling right from
think ideal. Worse, 44% of those roads are less than
the start. But time is of the essence, as many are
four metres wide. For governments, retrofitting will
expanding faster than planners can draw up the
be difficult, expensive and time consuming. There
necessary designs. For example, a city such as
is hope however, urban authorities in centres like
Dubai, which some expect to grow from 4m in 2016
Narok and Kisumu in Kenya, and Moshi in Tanzania
towards a population of 20m or even 30m over the
are beginning to make positive changes and are
next 30 years, risks suffering long term challenges
investing in improved risk assessments and urban
as a result of piecemeal development. Unlike the
upgrading as well as smarter land use, as the
thriving city-state of Singapore, it does not seem
potential for future problems is better understood.
to have a comprehensive master plan that can
Ideally today’s fast-growing cities need to establish ensure the creation of sustainable communities for
expansion areas that can accommodate growth, example. Without it, Dubai’s developers risk creating
make space for arterial roads and public spaces, just another longitudinal urban sprawl that spreads
and secure the rights for both. Effective use of along the coast to Abu Dhabi.

18
In some locations, such as Cairo and Seoul, we see In China, the network model is in full sway. In
what has been described as over-urbanisation – South East China high-speed trains and super-
they are cities whose rate of urbanization outpaces fast broadband are used to connect a number of
their industrial growth and economic development. smaller cities and create a more coherent centre
Mitigating against this elsewhere is a common of population of about 40m. Nine cities including
aspiration. Different approaches are being taken Guangzhou, Shenzhen, as well as the smaller
at a planning level. For instance, in many regions Zhaoqing, Foshan and Dongguan are now gaining
establishing satellite cities and networks of from mutual cooperation but without simply
‘midi-cities’ is seen as a preferred route to more morphing into continuous urban sprawl across the
singular mega-city development. Connected by whole of the Pearl River Delta.
fast infrastructure, these can act collectively but in a
Irrespective of whether it’s extending a market town
sustainable manner.
or a mega-city, there is a call for clear leadership
“Satellite cities differ from suburbs, subdivisions, and an integrated approach to link economic
and bedroom communities in that they have development, social change and healthcare, with
municipal governments distinct from that of the better transport, access to open spaces and
core metropolis and employment bases sufficient sustainable housing. Often seen as best in class
to support their resident populations.” – Kai Larsen, here are Amsterdam’s Structural Vision,27 the
Citylab, 2012.26 Singapore Urban Redevelopment Authority’s Master
Plan28 and the London Plan.29

MAP OF SE CHINA CITIES NETWORK

Source (iv)

19
Shared Ambitions
Given these common challenges, many urban leaders around the world have similar
ambitions for improvement. Everyone wants cities that are healthier, more accessible
and which take advantage of emerging technologies to inherently become more
intelligent. These issues are not mutually exclusive and addressing the connections
between them is pivotal in creating a better urban future.

Healthly
Cities

Shared
Ambitions

Intelligent Accessible
Cities Cities

20
AMBITION 1: Healthy Cities
To reduce pollution - especially air pollution - widespread the necessary transformations will be,
improve access to food, clean water, sanitation and what impact can be achieved.
and healthcare so that fewer die from
Perhaps the most detectible threat to healthy
preventable causes.
cities today is that of declining air quality.30 This
Whether from polluted air, water, poor waste issue was raised in every Future Agenda discussion.
management or simply a lack of open spaces, the In Mumbai, Delhi, London and Dubai, air pollution
list of unhealthy cities is rising steadily. However, generated from within the city is clearly the major
while the problems are obvious, and many solutions concern. In Singapore, it was pollution flowing over
are available, the speed at which change can be the border from forest fires in Indonesia, which on
delivered is a worry. A number of leading metropolises occasion has blanketed the whole island in haze.31
are now individually and collectively seeking to Even in relatively clean Guayaquil and Beirut, future
set new standards and so ensure momentum concerns around dealing with increasing air pollution
builds, but questions are being raised about how were also shared.

20 WORST CITIES FOR AIR POLLUTION

City Country Annual mean, ug/m3

PM2.5 PM10

1 Zabol Iran 217 527

2 Gwalior India 176 329

3 Allahabad India 170 317

4 Riyadh Saudi Arabia 156 368

5 Al Jubail Saudi Arabia 152 359

6 Patna India 149 167

7 Raipur India 144 268

8 Bamenda Cameroon 132 141

9 Xingtai China 128 193

10 Baoding China 126 190

11 Delhi India 122 229

12 Ludhiana India 122 228

13 Dammam Saudi Arabia 121 286

14 Shijiazhuang China 121 305

15 Kanpur India 115 215

16 Khanna India 114 213

17 Firozabad India 113 212

18 Lucknow India 113 211

19 Handan China 112 169

20 Peshawar Pakistan 111 540

Source (v)

21
Although Beijing has the worst reputation, its visible Aside from the avoidable deaths and illness, air
smog is formed mostly from 10-micron particulates pollution affects the bottom line. A recent Economist
that are marginally less deadly than the smaller 2.5 article points to research carried out in the University
particulates found in much greater concentrations of California that established a correlation between
in Delhi. In fact Delhi’s air is 15 times more productivity and air pollution. Three call centres in
polluted than the WHO safe maximum. Whether China were monitored and it was found that workers
from vehicle emissions, industrial smokestacks or were around 6% more productive on low-pollution
paraffin stoves, this pollution is manifested across days than on days when pollution was high.34 When
many Indian cities in escalating asthma rates, you consider that the Chinese service sector, much
higher cancer incidence and more heart attacks and of which takes place in city offices, now accounts
strokes. About 620,000 people are dying in India for over half the country’s GDP then the impact on
every year from pollution-related diseases. this across the economy is huge. A reduction in
China’s air pollution index by just 10 points could
That doesn’t mean it is safer to live in a Chinese city.
boost worker output by at least 15 billion Yuan ($2.2
Air pollution there kills about 4,000 people every day
billion) per year.
- about 17% of all deaths. 80% of the population are
exposed to pollution above safe levels so perhaps C40 Action
it is unsurprising that lives in many Chinese cities
Some cities are successfully battling against bad air.
are over 5 years shorter than the national average.
Led by the mayors of C40 cities such as Paris,
Indeed it is said that the air in Beijing is so
Madrid, Athens and Mexico City there is now a
polluted that breathing it does as much damage
concerted effort underway to reduce emissions.35
to the lungs as smoking 40 cigarettes a day.32 A
Both by introducing bans for diesel vehicles and
consequence of this is that the omnipresent paper
creating incentives for electric vehicles by 2025, they
facemasks of recent years are being replaced by
aim to change the market. Also by pedestrianizing large
heavy-duty alternatives; parents are even delaying
sections of their city centres and promoting walking or
having children because of the poor quality air.
cycling, their ambition is to change citizen behaviours,
Richer regions should not be complacent. In encouraging them to leave their cars behind. It hasn’t
Europe over 460,000 people a year die prematurely all been plain sailing; poorly thought-through policies
because of air pollution.33 In London a 2016 study by that cut carbon emissions sometimes also cause
researchers at King’s College suggested it shortens a rise in other air pollutants, such as SO2 and NOx.
the city’s inhabitants’ lives by nine to 16 months. Most notably, over the last decade fuel-tax policy in
According to the World Bank, when measured Europe has incentivised drivers to switch from petrol
across whole nations, some of the most toxic air cars to diesel ones, cutting carbon-dioxide emissions
today is found not in India or China but in the UAE. but increasing these from NOx and particulates

22
Perhaps one of the boldest moves in recent years has Polluted Water
been in California where the Environmental Protection
Although neither as visible nor as widespread an
Agency has been behind the adoption of a mandate
issue, the availability of clean water is another
for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV). The programme’s
major challenge to healthy city living. Untreated
objective is to ensure that automakers research,
or poorly treated sewage can be low in dissolved
develop, and market electric vehicles.36 This is a
oxygen and high in pollutants such as fecal coliform
gradually scaling regulatory requirement for carmakers
bacteria, nitrates, phosphorus, chemicals, and
to switch from internal combustion engine (ICE)
other bacteria. Treated sewage can still be high
products with production volumes steadily ramping
in nitrates. Groundwater and surface water can
up by 2025, when about one out every seven cars
be contaminated from many sources such as
sold must be ZEVs. In Delhi an experiment to reduce
garbage dumps, toxic waste and chemical storage
car emissions by restricting road use to odd- or even-
and use areas, leaking fuel storage tanks, and
numbered license plates on alternate days (a method
intentional dumping of hazardous substances.38 As
occasionally used in Beijing, São Paulo and a dozen
populations grow and climate change increases it
other cities) seems to have been an initial success.
stands to reason that the likelihood of drought, water
Eco Civilisation rationing in cities is also likely to rise.39 From Baku
in Azerbaijan and Dzerzhinsk in Russia to La Oroya
However, potentially the most significant action on
in Peru, Tianying in China and Vapi in India as well
a global scale is China’s Eco-Civilization initiative.37
as multiple African cities such as Dar es Salaam,
Poorly covered by Western media but repeatedly
Luanda, Ndjamena and Brazzaville, the inventory
mentioned in our workshops in Beijing and
of the world’s most polluted cities includes many
Shanghai, this is an unprecedented massive switch
suffering from water contamination.40
of China’s economy to be carbon neutral by 2030.
Implicit within this is not only the end of the internal In our water discussions in Brisbane, experts
combustion engine and the scaling down of coal highlighted that many of the solutions lie not only in
power, but also significant fines and regulations cleaning up water supplies but also in encouraging
for industrial polluters. A directive of the Chinese industry and citizens to use more recycled water.
Communist Party, many see this as a game-changer. With Singapore’s Newater as the exemplar,41 even
As a Trump-led US signals a potential retreat from in a water scarce environment, simple joined
some global climate agreements, many see that with up actions can transform the water supply and
the Eco-Civilization initiative and other international massively reduce contamination.
commitments, China will take the lead on climate
change and reducing urban air pollution and so
set the standards for others.

23
Waste Management can be sold to recycling factories. But still, there are
many enormous waste dumps within ever growing
Add on to air and water the issue of poor waste
urban boundaries. These heaps contaminate the soil
management and the list of the most polluted
and groundwater. Plastics flow down rivers into the
cities expands still further. Dhaka, Delhi and Port-
sea, harming ocean life. Without drastic action, some
au-Prince are three of the most well known, but
estimates suggest that there will be more plastic
cities such as Moscow also make the cut.42 Lagos,
than fish in the world’s oceans by 2050 and 99%
with a population of 21m or so, spews out 10,000
of seabirds will suffer from ingested plastics.43
metric tonnes of waste a day only 40% of which is
collected at all and of that only 13% of recyclable China’s rising consumer class means that its’ cities are
materials is salvaged from the city’s landfills. Other already running out of good places for landfills so they
cities face different waste challenges: When we ran are turning instead to burning rubbish, and some are
the workshops in Beirut, for purely political reasons putting this to good effect by generating electricity at
the garbage had not been collected for six months. “waste-to-energy” plants. About 70 such incinerators
In our travels, the most visible location for effective are now being built. In addition to more than 180
waste recycling was Vienna, but globally the standard already in operation, this is dramatically increasing the
bearers for minimum landfill include Switzerland capacity to incinerate waste. Shanghai produces the
and San Francisco: the former due to behavioral most household rubbish: around 22,000 tonnes a day.
compliance with regulations and the latter because
It is perhaps curious that more cannot be achieved
of technology adopted in waste processing.
through recycling because some recycled materials
Given that many cities have neither the regulation in could be cheaper than virgin commodities. However,
place nor can afford the technology, the question is although recycling can go someway to
often raised about how others can achieve similar improving the situation, the lack of closed loop
success. In Mumbai and Nairobi there is a deeply infrastructure and associated technology mean
embedded cultural norm around minimizing waste that scope is limited. Furthermore mismanagement
and so a lot of informal recycling – there is value in and poor planning means that many countries throw
what is thrown away. People pick through rubbish at too much stuff away. Much depends on public, political
dumps looking for items such as plastic bottles that and corporate appetites. Despite the fact that making

24
cans from recycled aluminium requires 95% less energy It remains the case that people are dying every day
and creates 90% less greenhouse-gas emissions than because of pollution. The generic solutions are well
virgin stock more than 40 billion aluminium cans hit understood: fewer polluting vehicles; tighter emission
America’s landfills every year - alongside $11.4 billion controls on industry, improved sewage systems,
worth of recyclable containers and packaging. In part enforcing regulations on chemical dumping, less use
this might explain why America’s recycling rate has of kerosene for domestic cooking and improved waste
stalled at around 34% for two decades—far lower management. The challenge is that managing this
than most rich countries. effectively requires a joined up combination of secure
funding, political will and population behavior change.
On a more positive note nearly 50 countries, including
the entire European Union, operate a policy called Urban Obesity
“extended producer responsibility” which shifts the
Beyond dealing with the pollution challenges, many
burden of waste disposal from taxpayers to companies.
cities are also seeking to encourage their citizens to
Although by no means perfect, such schemes boost
be more active and overcome another fast growing
recycling rates and so save cities money by shifting
health threat, that of urban obesity. Mass urbanisation,
the burden to the corporates. In the US thirty-two
reduced activity and poor diet are all accelerating
states already force companies to handle discarded
its rise. Levels in most cities are growing fast and
electronics, batteries, mobile phones and other
the associated healthcare burden will soon account
products and Rhode Island recently introduced a bill
for 5% of global GDP.44 Despite the well understood
that calls on them to recycle at least 80% of packaging
issues, the problem is getting worse – the World
by 2020. Some corporates are embracing the need
Health Organisation points out that in 1995, there
to change. For instance, Coca-Cola has recently
were an estimated 200 million obese adults worldwide
announced it supports testing a deposit return service
and another 18 million under-five children classified as
for drinks cans and bottles in Scotland while Pepsi,
overweight. As of 2000, the number of obese adults
Nestlé, Unilever and M&S have already committed to
had already increased to over 300 million. In 2016 30%
producing more eco-friendly bottles by using plant-
of the global population was overweight or obese. This
based materials or less plastic.
looks set to rise to 50% by 2030.

25
No country has yet reversed the obesity epidemic; creation and maintenance of public parks and
quite the contrary. In the UK the average waist size has destroying them is increasingly unpopular. As was
increased by over an inch in recent decades.45 In part seen in Istanbul in 2013, many public demonstrations
it is economic forces that are conspiring to cause the against the potential development of Gezi Park sought
great global weight gain. Countries grow wealthier and to change government policy.46 Going forward all those
increase consumption. People move from rural areas we talked to saw that environments that reconnect
to cities, where they have ready access to inexpensive, people with each other and their city brings multiple
processed foods and take less exercise. Machines benefits including increased healthier citizens, better
do work that humans once did, also decreasing the community engagement and improved mobility.
amount of energy people use. Moreover, the growth in
Some cities have already adopted a “health in all
the global food industry means the reach of junk food
policies” approach. Seinäjoki, a community in Finland,
has never been greater.
has seen positive results using this strategy. Six years
Obesity brings with it all sorts of associated illnesses. In ago, nearly 1 in 5 five-year-olds were overweight or
India research has shown that migration from rural to obese in this city. As a result of implementing their
urban areas is directly associated with an increase obesity prevention plan this number has been reduced
in abdominal obesity, which in turn drives other health by 50 percent. Focusing on the school environment in
risk factor changes such as insulin resistance, diabetes, particular, the community works together to improve
high blood pressure, and dyslipidemia. Indeed the rates child health. This comprises physical and nutrition
of obesity and diabetes are more than double in urban education, including cooking classes and yearly health
Indians than their rural counterparts. Across Africa, the exams for all students. This success story underscores
issue of rising urban obesity, especially for the poor, is the point that it is possible to halt the obesity epidemic.
also evident. In urban Kenya, Senegal and Ghana it is The challenge is that currently few other societies act
running at twice the level found in rural areas. Given that together in as coherent a manner as the Finns.
it has a higher incidence in disadvantaged households,
Agreed Benefits
it also imposes a disproportionate burden on the
poor in terms of healthcare costs. Again the solutions If we chose to measure successful cities not by their
of better diet and more exercise are well known but output but by the longevity and happiness of their
getting sufficient traction is a problem for most public inhabitants then some argue there would be a greater
health authorities. incentive to plan for a healthier environment to drive real
change. No new technologies are required. Policies
With obesity trends intertwined with economic forces,
encouraging a healthier lifestyle will improve
some advocates say that health considerations
urban design and consequently result in reduced
need to be written into trade and economic policies.
pressure on healthcare, better community resilience,
Certainly urban planning has a role to play in
and overall offer improved life expectancy. It is largely
obesity prevention by, for example, designing
about acting on what we already know. Governments,
cities to encourage more outdoor activity. We
schools, media, businesses, health care providers,
can observe that several governments are being
families and individuals all need to play important roles
pressured to ensure that public spaces are created
in promoting healthy lifestyles and creating a climate
and retained. There is rising public support for the
for sustained change.

26
AMBITION 2: Accessible Cities
To plan cities that provide better public top of existing congestion fees) and remove parking
transport services and to create more walkable spaces
areas which are accessible for all.
From Guangzhou and Brussels to Abu Dhabi
People Not Cars and Chicago, cities are shifting their attention
from keeping cars moving to making it easier to
We live in a world where the majority of our cities
walk, cycle and play on the streets. Speed limits
have been designed for cars first and people
are being slashed, some central roads are being
second. Whether you look at an aerial photograph
converted into pedestrian promenades and others
of Shanghai, Dubai, LA, or pretty much any US
flanked with cycle lanes. More than 700 cities in 50
urban area, what you see is a highway-focused
countries now have bike-share schemes. Bogota
environment. Equally, on the streets of Mumbai,
in Colombia captured the imagination as far back
Cairo or Jakarta you encounter roads that are
as 2000 when it introduced Ciclovía, or ‘cycle
bursting with vehicles well beyond their design
only Sundays’. Now adopted by approaching 100
capacity. Some think that in the US and Europe
cities in over 20 countries it is just one example of
we have reached peak car but everywhere else the
imaginative initiatives that are bringing people back
growth of the car shows little sign of slowing anytime
onto the streets.
soon. Cities will bear the brunt of this, making them
increasingly unhealthy, dangerous and polluted. One solution is simply to make cars slow down.
Slower traffic makes neighbourhoods quieter and
Many believe that urban life could be better
safer. Speed bumps, pedestrian countdown lights
without cars – or certainly without so many
and slow zones around schools mean that New
of them. City planners have known this for years
York now has fewer deaths each year than when it
but now they are, at last, doing something about it.
started counting them in 1910. Sweden has halved
Oslo, for example, has announced that it will ban all
road deaths since 2000, and cut them by four-
private cars from its city centre by 2019 and Dublin
fifths since 1970. London recently cut the speed
and Milan also have similar intentions. Helsinki has
limit to 20mph on more than 280km of its roads
ambitious plans to make its “mobility on demand”
and is getting rid of pedestrian-unfriendly giant
service so good that nobody will want to drive a
roundabouts. Toronto has reduced the speed of
car in the centre by 2025, while Paris’s car-free
traffic on more than 300km of its roads.
days have successfully reduced high pollution. New
cities – such as the Great City47 on the outskirts of Poor Public Transport
Chengdu, China, and Masdar48 near Abu Dhabi –
And yet these initiatives are still the exception. For
also plan to focus on mass transit or electric cars.
most conurbations today, the future threatens to be
Walking or riding a bike is certainly healthier one with more cars, albeit increasingly electric and
and generally safer. Public transport is autonomous. The lack of good public transport,
frequently cheaper. Copenhagen and Amsterdam, coupled with rising incomes in some places, has
where 70% of mobility is either by walking or pushed up the use of cars. Pew Research estimates
cycling, are recognised leaders in supporting non- that in Lebanon, where the only public transport
motorized transport. Even Los Angeles recently available is by bus, 81% of Lebanese households
announced plans for hundreds of miles of bus and have a car. It is no wonder Beirut’s roads are busy.
cycle lanes. Oslo plans to build at least 40 miles
Meanwhile in other, poorer countries where cars are
of new bike lanes, introduce rush-hour charges (on
still too expensive for many, donkeys and carts, tuk-

27
tuks and matatus fight for space in shantytowns. All Better Public Transport
this adds to the congestion, the noise and the delay.
What can be done to sort this out? A good public
A World Bank study estimated (conservatively) that
transport system would be a start. It certainly
4% of Egypt’s GDP was lost each year because of
makes a city more accessible and efficient.
time wasted in traffic in Cairo. It also makes city
Munich, Singapore and even London have led the
streets very dangerous. In the developing world,
way in reinvigorating their wider use. Indeed, with
laws and safety measures are failing to keep up
its population doubling, Singapore sees mass
with population growth, urbanisation and rising
transit as a core driver for a more effective
car use. Ironically by paying for new roads that
city. By 2030, 80% of households will be within
are not safe, development banks and donors can
a 10-minute walk of a train station and 75% of
sometimes make it worse. A quarter of the pupils at
journeys will be on public systems. In Medellin, in
the Nesco School in Kibera, Kenya’s largest slum,
Colombia, the government increasingly collaborates
were involved in a road crash in 2016 because they
with business to improve the institutional fabric as
have to cross multi-lane highways on the way to
well as core infrastructure through building new
classrooms. A safe crossing would have made all
cable cars and metros. In many of our future of
the difference.49
transport discussions, the issue of providing cities
with better public transport systems, and particularly
the use of multi-modal hubs to enable easy access
between one transport option and another was
raised repeatedly.

CITY POPULATIONS IN WALKING DISTANCE OF RAIL AND METRO STATIONS

London

New York

Hong Kong

Copenhagen

Stockholm
Residents
Bogota Jobs

Sao Paulo

Los Angeles

0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

The proportion of metropolitan residents and jobs within 500 metres (5 to 10 minutes’ walk) of
rail, metro and bus rapid transit stations.

Source (vi)

28
But shiny buses and trains are not always enough to of curbs and the replacement of tarmac by granite
tempt people out of their cars. Sometimes a nudge bricks to create a more prominent shared use space
is also needed. Governments, from Egypt to Iran, has meant that fewer cars choose to go down the
have started to remove fuel subsidies, causing the main Exhibition Road, providing more space and a
price of petrol to rise. Road tolls and higher parking safer environment for pedestrians.
charges are also effective tools. Led by London’s
Local Clusters
example, congestion charges have dramatically
reduced the number of cars in many cities. Beyond As well as providing better public transport and
this, technology is also transforming the public more open walkways, compact spaces are made
transport experience as smart phones allow you more appealing to those with a focus on health,
to use apps to check routes and pay for trips. In environment and sustainability. To achieve this the
Helsinki, residents will soon be able to travel within idea of local hubs for those working in knowledge-
the city by using an app that mixes and matches a based or specialist sectors, has long been proposed
variety of public and private means of transport. If as a means of minimising the daily commute to a
there is no obvious route, a bicycle from the city’s few hundred metres at the maximum. ‘Work, live,
bike share programme or a walking alternative will play’ clusters in cities allow residents to access
also be suggested. Several such schemes in other different activities all embedded in one area. This
cities are due to start this year. point was highlighted equally in Singapore, London
and Dubai. However, with many people currently
Walkable Cities
spending up to 4 hours a day travelling between
In their comprehensive 2016 report, Cities Alive - home and work, achieving this is not so simple,
Towards a Walking World,50 engineering firm Arup requiring a change of mind set around the ways
have done a good job in highlighting some of the businesses operate. Yet as organisations become
multiple challenges, opportunities, benefits and more flexible, porous and virtual, as was outlined
design options for creating more accessible cities in our discussions on the Future of Work, the
and noted the impact of such issues as spatial necessity to be in the office every day may recede.
quality, car and bike sharing. The report points out
that walkable cities are safer, more attractive,
more inclusive and easier to govern.

The High-Line in New York, the Cheonggyecheon

River in Seoul,51 the Eixample area of Barcelona
and more recently Beijing’s historic Hutongs
district are all good examples of significant, high
profile developments which have transformed
the walkability of cities. But small tweaks make
a difference too. In London as long ago as 2004
Mayor Ken Livingstone vowed to make the centre
“walkable”. The changes he suggested included
a scheme to create clearly marked maps for use
across the city. Most boroughs now have the
distinctive yellow-branded signs on their streets
allowing people to better understand the distance
between tube stops; for example, from Covent
Garden to Leicester Square is only 0.3m (0.5km).
This means more people choose to walk. Streets
are also being adapted to be more pedestrian-
friendly. In South Kensington, chockablock with
tourist friendly museums and cafes, the removal

29
Implicit in this, as was first raised in our New Learning from Japan, the country with the highest
Zealand discussions, is the importance of improving dependency ratio of all, some see examples of
digital connectivity enabling people to work more governments prioritizing more age-friendly
effectively from home or in local communities rather cities. The principle of the compact / dense city
than having to commute into offices. Enhancing the is again highlighted where “people live in limited
speed and reach of broadband is a fundamental in residential areas close to services and with good
achieving this objective.. public transport – so they don’t need to drive.” Key
here is not to characterise ageing as a problem but
Cities for Ageing Populations
to recognise that these strategies make life better
Many see the need to make better accommodation for everyone as well as helping older people.53
for the elderly in an urban environment, especially, in
Increasing Accessibility
developed countries where 80% of older people are
expected to live in cities by 2050. Arup’s Shaping Moving forward, the cities without extensive public
Aging Cities report52 reinforces the point that they transport systems should focus on improving access
“will need to change, to make sure older people to other forms of transport without constraining the
continue to play an active role in the community broader movement of people and goods by vehicles.
and don’t become isolated. Isolation has a negative Creating pockets of walkable spaces is evidently
impact on health so tackling that is really important.” possible in many locations but interconnecting these
In terms of solutions, again simple changes can effectively to make fully walkable cities seems to be
make a significant difference: “Reducing the distance the greater challenge. The cable car approach taken
between transport stops, shops, benches, trees for in Medellin, which is surrounded by hills, was often
shade, public toilets and improving pavements and quoted in our discussions as a low cost but effective
allowing more time to cross the road all encourage people mover for this city and hence one option for
older people to go out.” others. Most agree that in many cities there should
be more innovation focus on better, low-cost
Some consider that improving building access, more
systems that can effect greater movement of
assisted living schemes and adopting more US style
people and things in a more effective way. If
retirement communities are part of the solution.
densely populated Hong Kong only uses 5% of
Others push back against this and advocate
its GDP to move people and goods around while
“integration rather than segregation” and support the
widely spread LA uses over 40%, there is clearly a
opportunity for people to “live independently as long
major efficiency gap. While cities cannot be re-built,
as possible.” The solution is probably a combination
better thinking about multi-modal transport options
of the two – giving those who can, the opportunity
and encouraging different, more effective solutions
to remain in their own homes and those who are
is a must for many.
more vulnerable, the security of community living.

30
AMBITION 3: Intelligent Cities
To use data, connectivity and analytics more
effectively to make buildings, infrastructure and
citizens smarter and cities more efficient.

The Smart City Ideal

Increasingly equipped with digital technologies

and ‘big data’ many cities are now making
buildings, infrastructure and even citizens
smarter and therefore making themselves more
“intelligent”. In the main it’s down to technology.
“Bossy tech” - technology that intervenes - is the
new big thing in many mayors’ offices from London
to Boston, Quito to Delhi. City planners are keen
to take advantage of the improved connectivity by
creating more sensors and using fast-developing
analytics to interpret them. In Barcelona, as just one
example, this use of technology is adding resolution
both in terms of greater detail to what is already
known and also making connections which were
previously unknowable. Data from multiple sources
across the city can be transmitted and analysed in
real time so that lights can be switched off, heating
monitored and rubbish bins emptied - all without the
help of a human hand.

Source (vii)
31
The information and knowledge gathered by Smart City India
multiple devices and integrated with real-time
It’s easier to deploy new systems where there is
monitoring systems is used to tackle inefficiency
new development. Here India and China have
– reduce queues at train stations, ensure the
arguably greater opportunities that many. India has
traffic runs smoothly, help ambulances get
already invested $15bn to create 100 smart cities
to accidents and the police to crime scenes.
as satellite towns. The aim is to improve basic
Collectively, many see that smart data can deliver
infrastructure, water, sanitation, power supplies
a world where renewable energy systems, effective
and public transport, and to significantly enhance
transport networks, and digital infrastructures
IT connectivity thereby providing ‘smart’ solutions
all align to create a super-efficient and more
to the urban challenges. The first, GIFT City, is being
sustainable urban environment.54 IT companies,
built on 886 acres (358 hectares) of semi-desert
industrial conglomerates, governments, transport
near Ahmedabad, in Gujarat. Despite the fact
organisations and a plethora of start-ups
that it is an earthquake zone, the hope is that the
recognise this potential and are keen to build on
new metro, 25,000 new apartments, hospital and
the opportunity.
artificial lake will attract high-profile companies and
As bossy tech gets bossier and public authorities eventually generate around a million jobs – mainly in
become used to the notion that, at the click of a the financial sector. Certainly the state owned banks
button, human behavior can not only be monitored have already signed up.
but changed, the truly intelligent cities will be the
Although the smart city concept may well be refined
ones which can combine the corporate compulsion
to include existing cities, locations for all the 100
for efficiency with the human desire for privacy,
new smart cities in India have been tentatively
security and community.

32
named and states will experiment with plans for better governance and urban planning than about
them, bidding for central funds for their development integrated machines. “Smart cities need to be
($945m was budgeted for 2015). efficient but also preserve opportunities for spontaneity,
serendipity, and sociability. If we program all of the
In China, by contrast, much focus to date has been
randomness out, we’ll have turned them from rich,
placed on accelerating development in one city,
living organisms into dull mechanical automatons.”57
Yinchuan, ahead of others. This is where smart
payments, buses, taxis, rubbish bins and lockers Others are even more reserved about total
plus holographic receptionists are already part of interconnectivity and suggest the vast network of
the mix. The government has created a joint venture sensors amount to millions of electronic ears, eyes
between the city and the private sector – namely and noses – so future cities will be transformed into
ZTE, the Chinese multinational telecom company. places of perfect and permanent surveillance by
As principle and technology are proven in the test whoever has access to the data feeds. They point to
bed of Yinchuan, already tagged by CNN as ‘the Rio De Janiero as a precursor of this. Townsend writes:
smartest city on earth’ then they will be quickly “What began as a tool to predict rain and manage
deployed into 200 more smart city projects across flood response morphed into a high-precision control
the country.55 panel for the entire city.” He quotes Rio’s mayor,
Eduardo Paes, as boasting: “The operations centre
Corporate Partnerships
allows us to have people looking into every corner of
Several other notable examples have also turned to the city, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.”58 Not
municipal / corporate partnerships to help deliver everyone is comfortable with this.
the dream. IBM’s Smarter Cities / Smarter Planet
Smartphone Impact
initiative has been embraced by mayors in cities such
as Rio de Janeiro where massive sensor networks, Whether urban areas should be left to be intelligent
cloud-based storage and predictive analytics have in themselves or whether technology should enable
all been integrated. Intel has installed sensors all citizens to be more informed, take better decisions
over San Jose to measure air and water pollution, and so participate more actively, is often debated.
noise, traffic flow, energy usage, communication, Certainly, assuming universal connectivity, digital
and public transportation use. In addition to platforms such as smartphones have the potential
producing efficiencies the programme has created to bring people together and collaborate to ‘fix’
over 25,000 local jobs in clean technology as an problems and so create a more efficient system.
added boon. Although behind schedule, Masdar They allow us to interact with and better understand
in the UAE is still aiming to be one of the most our environments. Pivotal here is presenting people with
sustainable, environmental and smart cities on the accurate information at the right time to prompt them
planet; and Songdo in Korea has implemented to make positive decisions – be that on activity, diet,
Cisco’s ‘Smart+Connected’ view of the city. destination or mode of travel. If the right prompts are
given at the appropriate moment via the most effective
The Voice of Caution
medium, often an app, then whether choosing A over
Some temper their corporate and technology B or deciding to do C can sometimes become easier.
enthusiasm with a little pragmatic realism. Author of However, there are already constant demands on our
an often-mentioned book on Smart Cities, Anthony decision making capabilities, not least from commercial
Townsend, points out that the smart city is not a advertisers so it would be wrong to assume that
seamless web of integrated and joined-up technologies everyone will be able or will want to participate in every
and probably never will be.56 Rather, he argues, it decision-making opportunity.
is more an opportunity to match the right pieces
information to the circumstance and individuals and
so make our environment more livable, functional
and equitable through the use of new technologies.
Indeed, smart cities could be just as much about

33
Open Data Big Data Analysis

Six years ago the US became the first country to At first, the open data movement was driven by a
make all data collected by its government “open by commitment to transparency and accountability.
default” - except for personal information and that City, state, and local governments have all
related to national security. Almost 200,000 datasets released data about their finances and operations
from 170 organisations have been posted on the in the interest of good government and citizen
data.gov website. Nearly 70 other countries have participation. Companies like OpenGov enable
also made their data available: mostly rich, well- city managers and residents to examine finances,
governed ones, but also a few that are not. Open assess police department overtime, and monitor
Knowledge, a London-based group, reckons that other factors that let them compare their city’s
over 1m datasets have been published on open- performance to neighboring municipalities.
data portals using its CKAN software, developed
Perhaps the most intriguing data sharing and
in 2010. There are many beneficiaries of this, from
analysis to date has been in Los Angeles with
individuals checking out traffic routing, to councils
the LAPD.59 Using years – and sometimes decades
deciding on upgrading road links, to businesses
– worth of crime reports and combining this with
looking for suitable sites for a new restaurant in a
weather conditions, traffic updates, sports events
high footfall area.
and retail activities its algorithms analyse the data
Once information is free and open, then different to identify areas with high current probabilities for
parties and interests can start to collaborate. In certain types of crime. These are then streamed into
the US, the urban open data movement has been patrol cars that proactively go to these locations.
growing for several years, with cities including New While some see this as too intrusive and a step
York, San Francisco, Chicago, and Washington towards Minority Report’s ‘precogs’, this is all
leading the way. Bryant’s Park in New York was one about predicting where and when crime is most
of the early local hubs for the development of citizen likely to occur, not who will commit it. Performance
based networks from which sharing has spread. is already impressive – with police presence in
London, which currently has more open public data identified locations reducing around 20% of crime
sets than any other European city, is fast taking a events and rising.
lead in this area. Other UK councils including those
What seems clear is that open data, used appropriately
in Bristol and Manchester are making the information
can make cities safer, cleaner and more efficient but,
they hold on city parking, procurement and planning,
to do this, citizens, consciously or not, will live under
public toilets and the fire service publically available.
constant surveillance tracked by sensors, cameras
In other locations, cities such as Helsinki, Rio, Dubai
and drones. What is not clear is how secure this data
and Singapore have all opened up significant public
can really be. We know that the openly accessible
data sets and are exploring different options to make
data of London’s cycle hire scheme can be used to
good use of them.

34
track individual cyclists.60 This sort of information Smarter Citizens
when in the wrong hands can make individuals and
As more digital systems become part of the urban
their possessions very vulnerable; consider theft, the
fabric, a new generation of products and services
tracking of children, wide scale fraud and even terrorist
are emerging that make cities more responsive,
attacks. How can we protect ourselves from unwanted
interacting and adapting with overlapping systems.
intrusion? To date the privacy debate around this has
They are therefore able to respond to citizens more
yet to have much public airing; when it does it may
efficiently. Always-on devices connect people to
well generate strong feeling for many parties.
each other, physical space and dynamic processes.
Responsive Cities As Saskia Sassen of Columbia University notes
that it will be vital to “leak the (human) knowledge
Given what is already technically possible, many are
of the neighbourhood into codified systems – like a
now looking at how far the intelligent connected city
backward Wikileaks… and activate the citizenry”.63
can progress. How can we best mix the Internet of
Top down data collection is mixed with bottom up
Things with the Internet of Bodies61 to optimise cities?
data aggregation to give more and more interlinked
Leading thinkers in the field include Carlo Ratti,
sources of information - ‘Big Brother’ and ‘little
Director of MIT’s SENSEable City Lab62 who we met
sisters’ together.64 This allows cities to be more
in Istanbul. He sees that the way we describe and
responsive, encouraging the direct engagement
understand cities is being radically transformed and
of citizens in the planning and management of
believes that using sensing to better comprehend
their home and wider community. The ideal is that
urban flows is a key step forward. He argues that
cities ultimately become adaptive, emotional and
the pervasive digital systems that layer some
experiential environments that are able to connect
of our cities are already transforming urban life
and process information, and most importantly
for some and once this information is better shared
adapt to the changing needs of the citizen.
between planners, designers and the public then
we can collectively shape our future cities.

35
Emerging Concerns
Alongside the common challenges and ambitions discussed, three emerging
concerns were raised during our research and are seen as areas where future
resource needs to be focused. While not yet applicable to every urban environment,
the leading examples highlight that momentum is building.

Safe
Cities

Emerging
Concerns

Collaborative Resilient
Co-opetition Cities

36
CONCERN 1: Safe Cities
Whether it is to prevent terrorism, defend Safest Cities
against infrastructure-focused cyber-attacks or
Taking a holistic view across security from digital,
deal with increased crime, the need for citizens
health, infrastructure and personal perspectives, the
to feel safe is accelerating.
EIU 2015 Safe Cities Index identifies Tokyo as the
One of the key issues that the Chinese interns we world’s safest city closely, followed by Singapore.65
talked to in Dubai saw as important for the future In Asia, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City are at the
was to live and work in safe cities. While security bottom of the list. While wealthy nation cities are
in Dubai is clearly high, these students felt that generally above average in the rankings, they should
achieving similar levels of safety would be important not be complacent; Riyadh for example is one
for many other leading cities in the years ahead. high-income city with a low safety index. Here and
Whether to prevent terrorism, provide defense elsewhere, gated communities provide a sense
against more infrastructure-focused cyber-attacks of security for those who can afford to live
or dealing with increased inequality, the need for in them. In Chile, Santiago has seen a significant
urban environments to better protect their citizens growth in gated communities over the past decade
was highlighted at several events. while, as far back in 2004 Johannesburg had 300
enclosed neighbourhoods and 20 security estates.

Total Score Personal Safety Digital Security

1 Tokyo 85.63 1 Singapore 90.42 1 Tokyo 87.18
2 Singapore 84.61 2 Osaka 90.2 2 Singapore 83.85
3 Osaka 82.36 3 Tokyo 89.31 3 New York 79.42
4 Stockholm 80.02 4 Stockholm 87.51 4 Hong Kong 78.78
5 Amsterdam 79.19 5 Taipei 85.67 5 Osaka 77
6 Sydney 78.91 6 Hong Kong 85.09 6 Los Angeles 74.99
7 Zurich 78.84 7 Toronto 84.82 7 Stockholm 74.82
8 Toronto 78.81 8 Melbourne 82.72 8 San Francisco 73.85
9 Melbourne 78.67 9 Amsterdam 82.39 9 Abu Dhabi 73.71
10 New York 78.08 10 Sydney 80.4 10 Chicago 72.9
11 Hong Kong 77.24 11 Barcelona 78.36 11 Toronto 72.04
12 San Francisco 76.63 12 London 77.35 11 Montreal 72.04
13 Taipei 76.51 13 Zurich 76.62 13 Santiago 70.51
14 Montreal 75.6 14 Doha 76.41 14 Sydney 70.48
15 Barcelona 75.16 15 Lima 74.81 15 Washington DC 69.99
16 Chicago 74.89 16 Frankfurt 74.57 16 London 69.42
17 Los Angeles 74.24 17 Washington DC 73.95 17 Amsterdam 68.81
18 London 73.83 18 Istanbul 73.7 18 Mumbai 68.07
19 Washington DC 73.37 19 Seoul 73.62 19 Zurich 67.04
20 Frankfurt 73.05 20 Mumbai 73.61 20 Melbourne 65.42
21 Madrid 72.35 21 San Francisco 72.96 21 Taipei 65.11
22 Brussels 71.72 22 Delhi 72.7 22 Brussels 64.6
23 Paris 71.21 23 Los Angeles 71.66 23 Kuwait City 64.21
24 Seoul 70.9 24 Paris 71.29 24 Delhi 63.33
25 Abu Dhabi 69.83 25 Chicago 71.27 25 Shenzhen 62.74
26 Milan 69.64 26 Bangkok 70.97 26 Milan 62.62
27 Rome 67.13 27 Milan 70.87 27 Mexico City 61.69
28 Santiago 66.98 28 New York 69.45 28 Madrid 60.78
29 Doha 66.41 29 Montreal 68.48 29 Barcelona 60.29
30 Shanghai 65.93 30 Shanghai 67.66 30 Buenos Aires 59.58

Source (viii)

37
Counter Terrorism Foiling Cyber-Attacks

Around the world, increased terrorism has become Although physical attacks and the options to counter
a growing concern for everyone. Recent terrorist them can be highly visible, behind the scenes equally
attacks in Mumbai, Paris, Brussels, Ankara and significant changes are taking place to deter and
London, to cite just a few, are centre-stage for many prevent increasingly common cyber-attacks against
security forces, urban planners and increasingly the urban infrastructure. In one of our 2015 future of
general public. Preventing attacks from happening privacy discussions that involved leading members of
and minimising their impact when they do is now the intelligence services, it was stated that the number
a priority in many locations. This is made all the of cyber-attacks that had been prevented in the UK
more complex because of the changing strategy alone that year was put in the thousands. As the
of assailants some of whom employ low-tech but Internet of Things increasingly connects everything
extremely effective approaches, such as driving from cars to street signs, fridges to supermarket
cars into crowds with the intention to cause harm, checkouts, our mobile data and health information to
for maximum effect. distant monitors and so on, the risk of fraud and the
possibility of error will become a constant in our lives.
In some cities planners use counter-terrorism
While some consider that this will simply become an
architecture such as bollards, barricades, street
inevitable part of everyday life, and is similar to the
furniture and open spaces to reduce this risk.66 The UK’s
risks we already take when driving a car or getting
RIBA was one of the first organisations to explore the
on a train, others are more wary, believing that the
options and provide design guidance.67 It highlighted
new integrated connectedness makes security
the benefits that can be achieved from using glazed
management significantly more challenging.
facades, large staircases and enhanced landscaping
in public spaces.68 While extreme approaches, such As was often pointed out, the IT sector and security
as those being used within and around the new US services may well prevent a thousand attacks (or
Embassy in London, with its seclusion zone, and six more) each year, but it only takes one major breach
inch glass walls, are necessary in some areas, for the to potentially cause panic. Most vulnerable are the
majority, more modest, but effective street architecture utilities, especially energy supply and water treatment/
does, at least, provide a shield.69 One thing for sure distribution facilities. Closing down a power grid is
is that designing for counter-terrorism without seen as the worst-case scenario in much security
turning nations into uninviting fortresses is a risk analysis.71 While Russian hackers have recently
delicate balance.70 taken down the energy system in Ukraine, industry

38
experts see that other nations, including the US are urban infrastructure (such as providing energy-
also in danger.72 As energy systems are evermore efficient lighting); improve residential buildings and
interconnected, the ability for hackers to deny citizens more.74 As a bold initiative the plan won several
supply for months, not just hours, is a real possibility. international awards.75 However, five years later this
This is a major worry and security contingencies ambitious and visionary project was packaged into
see that a week of no power in many urban districts the Olympic legacy framework, co-opted by political
could lead to food and water shortages and even civil interests, and then abruptly dismantled without
breakdown. Currently, cities vary widely in terms of much explanation.76
how prepared they are for possible attacks.
Social psychologists treat cohesion as a trait that
Safe Cities combines with others in order to influence the way
the group does things. Sociologists tend to look at
US locations such as New York, Los Angeles,
cohesion as a structural issue, measuring how the
Chicago and San Francisco are all relatively secure
interlocking parts of the whole group interact to
digitally but the focus on technology and cyber
allow it to function. Within cities, providing people
security does not seem to be matched by success
with incentives such as fulfilling employment, a good
in combating physical crime. All are outside the top
home environment and a sense of self worth are
20 for personal safety. London, with one of the most
seen as primary drivers for greater cohesion. Equally
extensive networks of CCTV monitoring of any city,
important is the principle of social norms – effectively
has a camera for every six citizens. And yet, at the
the acceptable behavior within a society. Norms tend
time of writing, crime rates in London are rising,
to keep a group working better together as long as
some argue because of the reduction of policemen
everyone acts within the same framework.77
on the beat. Madrid has more than 8,000 security
cameras distributed throughout its mass transit Within urban planning, a key design approach to
system. However, some studies suggest that CCTV improving cohesion is identifying spatial strategies
does not in fact have an impact on levels of crime that can alleviate the concentrations of urban poverty
and violence. At best its impact is modest.73 and inequality and provide better access to jobs,
housing, education, health, public space, transport
Maintaining Social Cohesion
and community infrastructure.78 Green spaces and
Alongside terrorism and cyber-attacks, the third access to sports facilities, for example, can have a
main security risk that was highlighted was that huge positive impact. Medellin in Colombia, site of
of social cohesion, especially in a world of rising innumerable gang murders a mere few decades
migration and inequality. Urban environments ago is again a good example of how sport can
can be incubators for crime. Hot spots generally help transform communities beyond recognition.
occur in areas that are characterized by poor Problem favelas were reintegrated into the city with
social cohesion and control. Addressing this is a publicly funded sports facilities and better transport
priority and so many cities increasingly have plans connecting them to the city. Others now taking heed
to combat inequality and improve the quality of of good examples, are following suit and are seeking
life for all citizens. But success is proving elusive. to introduce similar more integrated planning policies.
Consider Rio de Janeiro that in 2010 launched
Morar Carioca, a high-priority plan to convert its
slums, or favelas, into recognized city communities
by 2020. Roughly one-fifth of the city’s residents—
around 232,000 households—live in these favelas,
most without basic sanitation, and with little in the
way of building standards. Under the ‘Municipal
Plan for the Integration of Informal Settlements’
Rio planned to bring municipal services like clean
water and waste collection into the favelas; upgrade

39
CONCERN 2: Resilient Cities
The imperative to reconfigure infrastructures Historically many communities were adjacent to
that are able to withstand the likely impact of water and cities have naturally developed in the same
climate change and the increasing number locations. Today most of the largest cities are located
of natural disasters is a growing concern. on the coast and so are increasingly vulnerable to
Adaptation is currently the priority over longer- flooding. New York, Miami and Boston, alongside
term mitigation. Guangzhou, Mumbai, Kolkota, Shenzen and Jakarta
are among the most vulnerable. The ten most ‘at risk
Resilience reflects a city’s ability to persevere in
cities’ globally already have combined populations of
the face of an emergency. In our discussions in
over 150m and are projected by the UN to have grown
both Christchurch and Guayaquil, the need for
by a further 50% by 2015, adding another 75m.
cities to be more resilient to natural disasters was
emphasized above many other issues. In many Flooded Cities
ways this was no surprise given that both have
The vast majority of our cities are not prepared
recent experiences of earthquakes. Christchurch
for flooding and yet 22 of the top 50 wealthiest are
was hit most significantly in 2011 killing 185 people
prone to serious flooding that will impact housing,
and rendering much of the city centre uninhabitable,
the poor, cost of energy and social breakdown.80 By
while the 2016 earthquake in Ecuador was centered
2070, the total asset exposure could rise more than
on Manabi Province and killed over 670. Whether
tenfold from today, reaching $35 trillion, more than
from earthquakes, flooding or other acute shocks,
9% of projected annual global economic output.
in an age of wider climate change recognition, many
Over the longer term, experts estimate that up to 1
cities are asking how they can be more robust to
billion people will have to migrate inland or north this
withstand and combat the effect of natural disasters
century as a consequence of climate change. For
and extreme, less predictable weather patterns.
the majority, who are simply unable to move, dealing
Climate Change Impact with this will become the biggest priority. Over the
past decades, many of us have consistently built
No one really knows exactly what the impact
where we should not and, in many regions, flood
of 2, 3 or 4oC of rise in global temperature
plains have not been respected. Moreover, other
will mean as it is genuinely unchartered territory,
than in the Netherlands, few buildings have been
but the UK Met Office has created one map of
designed to accommodate regular flooding.
likely consequences of 4oC based on the IPCC
Multinational learning visits to the Netherlands, a
Assessment Report. Alongside further melting
sensible idea for planners and decision-makers, are
of the Artic and Antarctic ice sheets, this shows
frequent but, as yet, few tangible new projects have
desertification in the Amazon, South West USA,
been proposed.
Southern China and large parts of Africa. In terms
of weather, drought and hurricanes will increase Preparing for Resilience
in frequency and strength and the seasons will
The real opportunity is to rethink infrastructure
shift. However, the most concerning issue that we
in terms of resilience, and not just rebuild it. In
need to prepare for seems to be flooding. Whether
only a few cities more effort is being put into building
stemming directly from rising sea levels and more
new infrastructure similar to the Thames barrier in
heavy rainfalls or as a by-product of more unstable
London. Designed in the 1960s and operational
weather patterns, dealing with more water than our
since 1982, this helps to defend London from high
systems were designed to handle is the top climate
tides and storm surge. Originally intended for use
risk in many urban regions.79

40
WORLDS MOST AT-RISK CITIES FROM FLOODING

Total Score
1. Guangzhou China 11. Jakarta Indonesia
2. Mumbai India 12. Abidjan Ivory Coast
3. Kolkata India 13. Chennai India
4. Guayaquil Ecuador 14. Surat India
5. Shenzen China 15. Zhanjiang China
6. Miami US 16. Tampa US
7. Tianjin China 17. Boston US
8. New York US 18. Bangkok Thailand
9. Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam 19. Xiamen China
10. New Orleans US 20. Nagoya Japan

Source (ix)

only once or twice a year, in 2014 it was closed and rebuild infrastructure to be able to cope with
48 times. This increased frequency both reinforces the expected changes in water levels. While some in
the need for long-term planning, and acts as a Washington DC see that, in the longer term, eventually
reminder that it is reaching the end of its capacity to the whole city may need to relocate, others believe
protect. Similar sustainable flood-risk management that this can be avoided. Digital technologies may well
schemes are being discussed and planned for areas help to monitor the situation and as cities become
like the Pearl River Delta in China where currently more intelligent and responsive it is hoped they can
the practice is to deliberately flood rural areas in also become more resilient.
order to protect cities.
New York has gained a lot of focus, however other
No one is expecting migration to vulnerable cities cities face more immediate threats. As such there is
to stop, or for cities to voluntarily relocate any a flurry of collaborative activity underway in order to
time soon, but with insurance now impossible to improve resilience.82 Most significant here is the 100
obtain for some locations and more regular flooding Resilient Cities collaboration a network dedicated to
occurring in others, the need for action to be taken helping cities around the world become more resilient
will be increasingly visible over the next decade. If to physical, social and economic challenges.83
global warming plays out as many expect, attitudes
The 100 Resilient Cities network sees that urban
to flooding will shift considerably, good practice will
resilience is the capacity of individuals, communities,
be shared and a there will be a more widespread
institutions, businesses, and systems within a city
view around better preparing for resilience.
to survive, adapt, and grow no matter the kind of
After the damage from Hurricane Sandy, New York has chronic stresses and acute shocks they experience.
embraced an approach originally conceived in London These include high unemployment, inefficient public
that calls for agencies to start adopting resiliency transport, rising violence as well as food and water
measures immediately, monitor how well they work, shortages - each of which is clearly critical and
and continually update their understanding of climate variously occurring in conurbations around the
risk information and responses as the climate system world. However, given the growing impact of climate
and resilience actions evolve. The report “A Stronger, change, greater focus is now also being placed on
More Resilient New York” outlines 250 projects to a city’s ability to adapt and cope with more acute
protect the city’s coastline, and to strengthen buildings, shocks such as earthquakes, flooding and also
energy systems, transportation networks, parks, more pandemics.
telecommunications, health care operations, and
The City Resilience Framework
supplies of food and water.81 Sea levels in the vicinity
of New York City are rising at almost twice the global Developed by Arup with support from the Rockefeller
average rate. As much of the city’s critical infrastructure Foundation, The City Resilience Framework84 provides
is located within the ‘100-year flood zone’ so the core a lens to understand the complexity of cities and the
challenge is how to dedicate the resources to adapt

41
drivers that contribute to their resilience, and a common Resilience Efforts
language that enables cities to share knowledge and
Led by both city mayors and, significantly, the big
experiences. It is one of several examples of joined up
insurers such as Swiss Re and Munich Re86, more
thinking taking place that connects the multiplicity of
proactive efforts to address the impacts of climate
factors that underpin urban resilience.
change are now taking place. These range from the
In some of our discussions it was recognized that, creation of Chief Resilience Officers87 who focus,
given the climatic shifts now evidently underway, efforts coordinate and lead each city’s resiliency efforts to
to mitigate climate change are needed but may not the development of resilience bonds88 that generate
have impact any time soon. If preventing more chronic capital for risk reduction projects. How quickly these
stresses and acute shocks is not possible, then we and other initiatives can scale and have impact ahead
need to adapt to the changing conditions. Indeed, of the next acute shock remains to be seen. Several
the language of adaptation and resilience is becoming climate change experts consider that many of the
more commonplace. Globally we can see different cities implications from global warming for this century are
already pushing differing, more adaptive approaches. already underway and that the point of no return for
For example, Toyko’s cap-and-trade program for temperature rises above 2oC is looming, bringing with
reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the first for an it extensive, but unpredictable shifts. The problem is
urban center, requires large commercial, industrial, and that the changes we make today will only begin to
government buildings to cut their carbon pollution via have tangible impacts in the next century. Therefore
energy efficiency or emissions trading.85 improving the resilience of key cities to get us through
to 2100 intact is no small task.

THE CITY
RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK

Source (x)

42
CONCERN 3:
Collaborative Co-opetition
Managing partnership and competition to livability also has a role to play. What is increasingly
establish the right balance between sharing evident is the increasing competition between cities
experience, insights and ideas for the future to attract skilled, entrepreneurial people to live and
while recognizing increasing economic work within them.90
competition between locations.
National and International Rivalry
Cities always have and always will compete and
The need to attract high-value, high-wage
compare with each other. But with many shared
businesses in services and professionals in the
challenges now being aired, the level of inter-city
likes of research and design, new technologies, the
collaboration taking place is also increasing. 100
financial and media industries is seen at both in-
Resilient Cities is one example already discussed.
country and international levels. Within India, cities
The C40, is another great network example that
such as Mumbai, Pune, Hyderabad, Chennai and
connects policy makers from 83 cities around the
Bangalore are all striving against each other to be
world in order to address the impact of climate
the national leader in digital business.91 Across the
change and learn from each other about issues
EU, cities such as Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam and
such as waste management, building efficiency
Dublin are all positioning themselves to attract more
and transportation. Through efforts like these, cities
financial services jobs from London particularly
are taking the lead ahead of national and regional
following Brexit. Attracting significant FDI (foreign
governments in tackling the key issues for the
direct investment) has been a hallmark of
future. However, balancing greater collaboration
Singapore’s success. The same is true for London,
with the ongoing demand to compete is a tricky
Dublin, Shanghai and New York.92
balance to maintain.
Quality of Life – A Source of Competition
Growing Competition
New forms of competition are emerging
Since the days of Sparta and Athens there has been
particularly around quality of life and the overall
competition between cities. While the means of
cleanliness, safety and greenness of the urban
gaining competitive advantage may have changed,
environment.93 Dubai, for example, has emerged
the continuous battle for leadership has not abated.
as not only a regional, but also a global centre, which
The big cities of today and tomorrow operate
invites talent, sprouts imaginative architecture,
in a constant state of competition. They jostle
attracts the headquarters of major global firms and
over everything: positioning and attractiveness
creates competitive infrastructure.94 But it now also
through to design, innovation and strategic city
branding. This competition among metropolises
is intense, and a strong city brand has become a
potent weapon to maximise its profile allowing it to
differentiate itself from its others.

The World Bank sees that a competitive city is one

that successfully facilitates its firms and industries
to create jobs, raise productivity, and increase the
incomes of citizens over time.89 But culture and

43
suffers from serious pollution with air containing 80 Some suggest the role of cities as problem solvers is
micrograms of pollutants per cubic meter. That’s rising while other government bodies such as nation
slightly higher than China’s at 73 micrograms and states are increasingly being considered obsolete or
more than double India’s at 32. Unless it can better dysfunctional.96 A key element in this is that cities
manage this, its aspiration to attract the brightest have more to offer, presenting a greater goodwill,
and the best might remain just that. more flexible configuration and a better mindset
for collaboration than national governments.
Collaboration
Specifically, a good number of municipal leaders
Many see that today cities must not only compete tend to be more resourceful problem solvers. As
to succeed they must also collaborate. Through cities must cope with the practical day-to-day
networks, cities find opportunities to undertake joint realities, mayors and councils find themselves more
projects in areas of mutual interest and benefit. Inter- obliged to deliver services rapidly and effectively.
city collaboration is becoming a priority for any They are often also more able to test and refine
mayor’s office. Sharing, learning and partnering on approaches faster than national governments.
the big issues for the future are becoming a necessity. Equally, local executives usually exhibit a less
Working across multiple sectors and issues, the partisan and more pragmatic style of governance.
C40 convenes networks that provide a range of Indeed the mayors of many cities show a quality of
services in support of urban climate change efforts. leadership that encourages collaboration. Some are
It has 17 networks organised under 6 initiative areas going further than others: Metropolitan areas like
covering mitigation, adaptation and sustainability Denver and New York are shunning competition and
topics which are of highest priority to cities at risk focusing on how entire regions can work together to
of the greatest impact from climate change. They reach economic goals.97
help cities replicate, improve and accelerate climate
The C40 and the 100 Resilient Cities are not the
action. These city-only working groups provide a
only forums. Other collaborative networks of urban
forum for honest knowledge exchange, enabling
organisations and governments are emerging on
cities to tap into the global expertise of their peers
a regular basis. The World Cities Culture Forum
as well as providing the connections for technology
includes a network of 27 cities founded in 2012
partnerships. C40 networks also amplify individual
that share a belief in the importance of culture for
city solutions by providing a global platform for
creating thriving cities while Eurocities is bringing
showcasing city successes.95
together the local governments of over 130 of
Europe’s largest cities and 40 partner cities which,

44
between them, have 130 million citizens.98 One of global conferences for long-term collaborations. In
the most recent networks is The Global Parliament Asia, competing Chinese cities are increasing co-
of Mayors99 inspired by the ideas of Benjamin branding in order to create momentum and attract
Barber, author of the book ‘If Mayors Ruled the investment. In addition several regional tourism
World’ This is based on the view that cities, and the destinations are experimenting with new strategies
mayors that run them, offer the best new forces of where cooperation and co-opetition co-exist.
good governance and best practices to support and
If we are going to tackle some of the challenges
accelerate global answers in an ever interdependent
identified in our discussions, it is clear that more
world. Greater and deeper collaboration is clearly
widespread co-opetition is going to be a
the new normal.
key part of the solution. Addressing inequality,
Co-opetition migration and scaling requires greater sharing of
the best approaches. Equally, if we are to realize
So how does ever-greater competition and deeper
the ambitions of healthier, accessible and more
collaboration between cities actually work? What
intelligent cities, new ideas that link together the
is the right balance? In the world of business,
needs of not one, but multiple urban environments
co-opetition – simultaneous competition and
should be shared.
cooperation – is an important strategy that goes
beyond the conventional rules of competition and
cooperation to achieve advantages of both. Sharing
supply chains, common platforms and defining
new standards within an industry are all growing
examples of this. For cities, parallel approaches are
now emerging. In the UK, Liverpool and Manchester,
established long-term competitors, are collaborating
on a number of initiatives including one of several
‘Cities for Business’ partnerships where they are
working together in the best interests of the North
West region.100 In Germany, cities in the Ruhr region
are collectively promoting its sports and other cultural
centres. Elsewhere in Europe cities such as Barcelona
and Vienna are joining together to woo attractive

45
Moving Forward
The insights gained to date on the future of cities and safe cities are all top of mind here. Other
cities have helped us to clarify the main issues, issues are being led by or promoted by a multitude
highlight numerous examples and lay out a of parties – intelligent cities and more innovative
view of the landscape. As we take this project cities are, for example, both high on many agendas.
further with more discussions in Europe and Several new partnerships are now emerging to
Asia planned throughout 2017/18, we wish to explore these further and we hope to help seed and
focus on new solutions, identifying opportunities guide some of these discussions using the insights
for innovation in planning, policy, strategy and gained to date. In addition, there are cross cutting
collaboration. Collectively we seem to be clear topics like social cohesion, tolerance and openness
on the problems, the causes and some of the to migration. These are increasingly political matters
off-the shelf answers. However, given the scale in many societies but with growing urbanisation a
of both the challenges and the ambitions, new clear global trend for now and the future, they will
thinking is also going to be part of the mix. have to be better addressed if more of us are going
to live in close proximity to others.
While we all recognise that every city is singular and
so they have different set of problems and specific While we recognise that there are many excellent
solutions, there are a number of common issues, research projects underway exploring elements
concerns, ambitions and emerging challenges. of the future of cities, both globally and regionally,
Some of these are already being explored in depth we hope that the insights the Future Agenda
by new collaborations – resilient cities, healthy programme has gleaned and shared help.

46
Research Methodology
The Future of Cities is influenced by myriad For the second Future Agenda programme in
issues beyond urban planning, the design of 2015 Harry Rich, CEO of the Royal Institution of
buildings and the creation of public spaces. British Architects (RIBA), authored another initial
From discussions around the future of water, perspective.104 This too was used as stimulus for
food and energy to the future of transport, multiple discussions and workshops that were
migration and health, the future how, why and conducted in Christchurch, Delhi, Singapore, London
where we live, as well as the ‘who’ is changing and Dubai and then, for additional views during
rapidly across multiple dimensions. As such, to 2016, in Singapore as well as in Beirut, Lebanon and
gain a broad, global informed view on the key Guayaquil, Ecuador. In 2017 we again ran an event
drivers of change the topic was embedded in in London and also added in other discussions in
the world’s largest open foresight programme – Toronto, Kuala Lumpur and Vienna. These assorted
Future Agenda. locations were chosen to ensure a range of views
from cities of different sizes, in varied states of
The Future Agenda programme is based on the
transition and facing diverse issues. Whilst not
idea that by engaging with others from different
covering every possible urban typology to the extent
cultures, disciplines and industries, we can
of some studies, we feel that the discussions from
collectively create a more informed understanding
this combination of cities have given us insights from
of the world in which we live. This makes it easier to
a notably broad church. Adding into the mix other
shape a strategy that will help to address the major
city-related views gained from the 100 or so other
challenges we face. Our aim is to identify ways in
workshops undertaken on the future of water, food,
which systems could function, consumers behave
resources, transport, trade, energy, migration, health,
and governments regulate over the next decade,
ageing, education and wealth, then, in total, we have
and give all organisations, large or small, access
identified around 150 different issues of relevance.
to insights that we hope, will help them to develop
These have been shared online in varied formats
their future strategy.
on different platforms and have since also gained
In the first Future Agenda programme, in 2010, an further feedback. Lastly, we also included city-related
initial perspective on the future of cities was used questions in a major consumer survey undertaken
to initiate discussions. This was authored by Ricky in partnership with YouGov interviewing thousands
Burdett, Professor of Urban Studies at the London of individuals in ten countries (USA, UK, Indonesia,
School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) and China, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Australia, Brazil
director of LSE Cities101 and Urban Age102 research and Morocco). Together the views gained from
projects. It was then taken around the world and built thousands of different experts in 45 locations around
upon in discussions in key locations including Mumbai the world provide the insights on the future of cities
and London. Subsequent insights were shared in the from which we have drawn this summary.
World in 2020 book and website.103 Adding onto this,
we then also ran events in New York and Vienna to
bring in additional views of urban development.

47
References
1 www.futureagenda.org
2 http://www.geohive.com/cities/agg2016_2030.aspx
3 http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21647614-poor-land-use-worlds-greatest-cities-carries-huge-cost-space-and-city
4 www.futureagenda.org
5 https://lsecities.net
6 http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/policy/world-population-policies-2013.shtml
7 http://mirror.unhabitat.org/pmss/listItemDetails.aspx?publicationID=3386&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
8 IOM / Gallup (2015). How the World Views Migration. See www.publications.iom.int/system/files/how_the_world_gallup.pdf
9 http://www.solidere.com/city-center/urban-overview/master-plan
10 https://www.oecd.org/migration/OECD%20Migration%20Policy%20Debates%20Numero%202.pdf
11 http://urban-links.org/looking-beyond-quito%E2%80%8A-%E2%80%8Athe-u-s-agency-international-development-new-urban-agenda/
12 http://www.nber.org/papers/w13982
13 http://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/a-guide-to-statistics-on-historical-trends-in-income-inequality
14 http://blog.euromonitor.com/2013/03/the-worlds-largest-cities-are-the-most-unequal.html
15 http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/69905/1/Burdett_Infrastructures%20of%20equality%20versus%20inequality_published_2017%20LSERO.pdf
16 https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/19/global-wealth-oxfam-inequality-davos-economic-summit-switzerland
17 https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/wealth-having-it-all-and-wanting-more
18 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_flight
19 http://dolphinliving.com/wp-content/uploads/FINAL-Estimating-the-Value-of-Discounted-Rental-Accommodation-2016.pdf
20 file:///Users/carolinejones/Downloads/Urban-World-Global-Consumers-Executive-summary.pdf
21 https://www.brookings.edu/research/city-and-metropolitan-inequality-on-the-rise-driven-by-declining-incomes/
22 http://blog.euromonitor.com/2013/03/the-worlds-largest-cities-are-the-most-unequal.html
23 http://citiespapers.ssrc.org/notes-on-neighborhood-inequality-and-urban-design/
24 https://www.lincolninst.edu/subcenters/atlas-urban-expansion/google-earth-data.aspx
25 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/africa-biggest-cities-fragility/
26 http://www.citylab.com/work/2012/03/are-satellite-cities-cities-future/1468/
27 https://www.amsterdam.nl/wonen-leefomgeving/structuurvisie/structural-vision-am/
28 https://www.ura.gov.sg/uol/master-plan.aspx?p1=View-Master-Plan
29 https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/planning/london-plan
30 http://www.futureagenda.org/insight/air-quality
31 http://www.wsj.com/articles/singapores-air-quality-plummets-as-haze-returns-1472187305
32 http://berkeleyearth.org/air-pollution-and-cigarette-equivalence/
33 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38078488
34 http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/10/economist-explains-2
35 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38170794
36 http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/california-and-western-states/what-is-zev#.WDXYI3ecZdA
37 http://www.futureagenda.org/insight/eco-civilisation
38 http://www.gdrc.org/uem/water/watershed/urban-water-pollution.html
39 https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2014/sep/05/brazil-drought-crisis-rationing.
40 http://www.livescience.com/40983-worlds-10-worst-polluted-places.html

48
41 https://www.pub.gov.sg/watersupply/fournationaltaps/newater
42 https://soapboxie.com/social-issues/25-Most-Dirtiest-Cities-In-The-World
43 https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2017/feb/14/sea-to-plate-plastic-got-into-fish
44 http://www.futureagenda.org/insight/urban-obesity
45 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7151813.stm
46 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gezi_Park_protests
47 http://www.dezeen.com/2012/10/24/great-city-by-adrian-smith-gordon-gill-architecture/
48 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/28/end-of-the-car-age-how-cities-outgrew-the-automobile
49 http://www.economist.com/news/international/21595031-rich-countries-have-cut-deaths-and-injuries-caused-crashes-toll-growing
50 http://publications.arup.com/publications/c/cities_alive_towards_a_walking_world
51 http://inhabitat.com/how-the-cheonggyecheon-river-urban-design-restored-the-green-heart-of-seoul/
52 http://publications.arup.com/publications/s/shaping_ageing_cities
53 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/apr/25/improving-with-age-how-city-design-is-adapting-to-older-populations
54 http://yalebooks.com/book/9780300204803/city-tomorrow
55 http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/10/asia/yinchuan-smart-city-future/
56 http://anthonymobile.com
57 http://books.wwnorton.com/books/smart-cities/
58 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/dec/17/truth-smart-city-destroy-democracy-urban-thinkers-buzzphrase
59 https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jun/25/predicting-crime-lapd-los-angeles-police-data-analysis-algorithm-minority-report
60 https://vartree.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/i-know-where-you-were-last-summer.html
61 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-06-04/putting-human-bodies-into-the-internet-of-things
62 http://senseable.mit.edu
63 http://unlistedvideos.com/v/youtube-wabynfxZNMw.html
64 http://yalebooks.com/book/9780300204803/city-tomorrow
65 http://safecities.economist.com/report/safe-cities-index-white-paper/
67 https://www.architecture.com/Files/RIBAHoldings/PolicyAndInternationalRelations/Policy/CounterTerrorism/
RIBADesigningforCounterTerrorism.pdf
68 https://qz.com/733374/counter-terrorism-architecture-how-cities-prevent-attacks-without-looking-like-theyre-trying/
69 http://www.harvarddesignmagazine.org/issues/42/fortress-london-the-new-us-embassy-and-the-rise-of-counter-terror-urbanism
70 https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/20/what-can-be-done-to-prevent-berlin-style-attacks-in-modern-cities
71 https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27997-cyber-attack-how-easy-is-it-to-take-out-a-smart-city/
72 http://www.wsj.com/articles/cyberattacks-raise-alarms-for-u-s-power-grid-1483120708?mg=id-wsj
73 https://www.campbellcollaboration.org/news-archive/news/cctv-has-modest-impact-on-crime
74 http://www.100resilientcities.org/blog/entry/ten-cities-that-are-leading-on-climate-change#/-_/
75 https://www.siemens.com/press/pool/de/events/2014/infrastructure-cities/2014-06-CCLA/rio-climate-close-up.pdf
76 http://www.rioonwatch.org/?p=17687
77 https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/social-cohesion-diverse-communities
78 http://www.lse.ac.uk/resources/calendar/courseGuides/SO/2016_SO4A2.htm
79 http://www.futureagenda.org/insight/flooded-cities
80 https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/11/major-cities-under-water

49
81 http://www.nyc.gov/html/sirr/html/report/report.shtml
82 http://uccrn.org/arc3-2/
83 http://www.100resilientcities.org
84 https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/report/city-resilience-framework/
85 http://www.100resilientcities.org/blog/entry/ten-cities-that-are-leading-on-climate-change#/-_/
86 https://www.munichre.com/us/weather-resilience-and-protection/about-wrap/index.html
87 http://www.100resilientcities.org/blog/entry/what-is-a-chief-resilience-officer1#/-_/
88 http://www.swissre.com/global_partnerships/Swiss_Re_and_partners_to_develop_resilience_bonds.html
89 http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/902411467990995484/Competitive-cities-for-jobs-and-growth-what-who-and-how
90 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/government-public-sector-research/pdf/cities-final.pdf
91 http://ceoworld.biz/2016/12/02/indias-top-12-tech-cities-digital-indian-cities-survey-2016/
92 http://www.fdiintelligence.com/Rankings/fDi-s-Global-Cities-of-the-Future-2016-17-the-winners?ct=true
93 http://www.citylab.com/politics/2015/12/secrets-of-the-worlds-most-competitive-cities/420720/
94 http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GAC/2014/WEF_GAC_CompetitivenessOfCities_Report_2014.pdf
95 http://www.c40.org/networks
96 http://www.co-society.com/collaborative-cities-raise-less-collaborative-nations-stall/
97 http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/05/when-cities-and-suburbs-work-together/391979/
98 https://www.thersa.org/discover/publications-and-articles/rsa-blogs/2015/04/the-rise-of-the-collaborative-city
99 https://globalparliamentofmayors.org
100 https://www.corecities.com/news-events/new-cities-business-partnership-launched-create-jobs-and-investment-outside-south-east
101 https://lsecities.net
102 https://urbanage.lsecities.net
103 http://archive.futureagenda.org/pg/cx/view/#0
104 https://www.architecture.com

50
Tables and graph references
Source (i) THE URBAN AND RURAL POPULATION OF THE WORLD, 1950-2030
Source (ii) CITIES WITH HIGHEST GINI COEFFIENTS
http://blog.euromonitor.com/2013/03/the-worlds-largest-cities-are-the-most-unequal.html
Source (iii) FASTING GROWING CITIES. Estimated Urban Growth 2016 to 2025
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/the-world-s-fastest-growing-cities/
Source (iv) MAP OF SE CHINA CITIES NETWORK
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8278315/China-to-create-largest-
mega-city-in-the-world-with-42-million-people.html
Source (v) 20 WORST CITIES FOR AIR POLLUTION
http://www.who.int/phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/cities/en/
Source (vi) CITY POPULATIONS IN WALKING DISTANCE OF RAIL AND METRO STATIONS
https://lsecities.net/media/objects/articles/public-transport-accessibility-in-world-cities/en-gb/
Source (vii) SMART CITY IDEAL
https://connectedtechnbiz.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/smart-city-concept.jpg
Source (viii) SAFEST CITIES FROM EIU INDEX
http://safecities.economist.com/report/safe-cities-index-white-paper/
Source (ix) WORLDS MOST AT-RISK CITIES FROM FLOODING
http://www.livescience.com/38956-most-vulnerable-cities-to-flooding.html
Source (x) THE CITY RESILIENCE FRAMEWORK
https://www.rockefellerfoundation.org/report/city-resilience-framework/

51
© Future Agenda 2017

ISBN 978-1-5484-5672-6

All images © istockimages.com

First published in 2017 by

Future Agenda Limited
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH