Quantitative Analysis - (A) 2020
Quantitative Analysis - (A) 2020
Quantitative Analysis - (A) 2020
1. Market Share
(a) Calculating Market Share
(b) Estimating the Size of a Market (Step Down Analysis)
2. Types of Costs and Margins
(a) Fixed and Variable Costs
(b) Contribution and Profit Margins
3. Breakeven Analysis
(a) In units and dollars
(b) Using breakeven analysis strategically
4. Price Elasticity
(a) For a single product
(b) Cross price elasticity between two products.
5. Price Chains
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1. Market Share (MS)
Market share is the percent of the total market (expressed in units or dollars) that your brand or
product controls.
Not all brands in a segment are sold at the same price, therefore the answer to these two market
share calculations may differ.
Suppose we know that our brand has $365,000 in sales and that the total Canadian market of
all laundry detergent is $217,500,000.
What information do we need to know to calculate our particular market share of just the liquid
detergent segment just in Montreal?
1. Size of the Quebec laundry detergent market in comparison to all of Canada 21%
2. Size of the Montreal laundry detergent market in comparison to all of Quebec 48%
3. Size of the Price Sensitive segment of consumers in Montreal 20%
4. Size of the Liquid (as opposed to Powder) Detergent sales in Montreal 45%
$ 365,000
MS ( $ )= =18.5 %
$ 1,973,160
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2. Types of Costs and Margins
1. Fixed Costs (FC) do not fluctuate with changes in volume of production (i.e. advertising,
public relations, fixed salaries, administration and overhead, rent, research and
development…).
2. Variable Costs (VC) are directly associated with volume of production (i.e. labour,
materials, transportation, promotion costs such as allowances, coupons, …).
3. Contribution Margin (CM) represents how much is left over after accounting for the
variable costs to cover fixed expenses. Contribution Margin % tells you what % of each $
you earn goes towards covering fixed expenses.
4. Profit Contribution (PC) represents how much is left over after accounting for all costs
(fixed and variable).
In other words:
Unit SP
- Unit VC
Per Unit Contribution (CM)
- Per Unit Fixed Costs
Per Unit Profit Margin (PC or PM)
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3. Breakeven (BE) Analysis
Total FC
BE(Units)=
SP ( unit )−VC ( unit )∨CM
Total FC
BE($ )=
SP(unit )−VC ( unit ) Total FC
BE($ )=
SP(unit ) ¿ VC (unit)
1−
¿ SP (unit) ¿
¿
For example, consider a microbrewery that wants to enter the Quebec market. Total unit sales of
micro beer in Quebec = 7,000,000 bottles per year. Per unit VC for this microbrewery is $0.85
per bottle.
Strategy 1: Heavy advertising in order to try and sell at a higher per unit price.
Advertising = $500,000 Price = $3.00 per bottle
Strategy 2: Lower advertising, and therefore sell at a lower price per unit.
Advertising = $200,000 Price = $2.25 per bottle
Which strategy is best according to a breakeven analysis?
$500,000
Strategy 1: BE ( Units ) = = 232,558 units or 3.3% of the market
$3.00 - $0.85
$ 200,000
Strategy 2: BE ( Units )= =142,857 units∨2 % of the market
$ 2.25−$ 0.85
The marketer would then determine how much of the market they can realistically capture and
compare this to their breakeven analysis. Suppose it is determined that they can only capture 2%
of the market. What price do they have to sell their beer for in order to make the $500,000
advertising strategy pay off?
$ 500,000
BE ( Units )= =140,000 x=$ 4.42
x−$ 0.85
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4. Price Elasticity (PE)
Price Elasticity (PE) measures how responsive demand would be to a change in price.
% change∈ Demand
PE=
% change∈ SP
New −Old
Where % change=
Old
Going back to the microbrewery example, suppose:
...at $2.25 per bottle, they’ll sell 300,000 bottles.
...at $4.42 per bottle, they’ll sell 140,000 bottles.
300,000−140,000
% ∆∈Demand= =1.14∨114 %
140,000
$ 2.25−$ 4.42
% ∆∈SP= =−0.49∨−49 %
$ 4.42
1.14
PE= =−2.33
−0.49
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5. Cross-Price Elasticity (CPE)
Cross-Price Elasticity (CPE) examines the relationship between changing the price of one
product and measuring the effect on the demand of a second product.
With complementary products, raising the price of one will yield a decrease in demand in the
other (e.g., hockey sticks and pucks; hamburgers and French fries, bread and cheese).
With substitute products, raising the price in one product will lead to an increase in demand for
the other (e.g., cassette and CD players, bread and margarine, tea and coffee).
Suppose that butter is promoted and its price is dropped from $3.09 to $2.79. Moreover, suppose
that this yields an increase in demand for bread from 4,000 loaves to 6,300 loaves.
$ 2.79−$ 3.09
% ∆∈Butter Price= =−0.10
$ 3.09
6,300−4,000
% ∆∈Bread Demand= =0.58
4,000
0.58
CPE= =−5.8( as expected with complements )
−0.10
6. Price Chains
VC (unit )
SP=
100 %−CM % on SP
Use this formula when you know the markup % on Cost but not the SP∨VC :
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Basic quantitative analysis in marketing – Exercises
1. Last year Warner-Lambert sold 14 million superpacks of Trident. The average retail price
per pack was $1.69. In 1996, the chewing gum market racked up $850 million in retail
sales.
(b) Warner-Lambert targets the frequent gum chewers with their superpack that contains 16
pieces of gum. Assuming frequent gum chewers make up 28% of the chewing gum
market, calculate Trident’s new market share.
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Suppose there are two unique segments in the coffee market: percolated coffee drinkers and
instant coffee drinkers. Percolated coffee drinkers make up 86.5% of the coffee market and
instant coffee drinkers 13.5%.
(c) Assuming Maxwell House targets percolated coffee drinkers, calculate the target market
share.
(d) Assume Folgers’ coffee is targeted at instant coffee drinkers, calculate the target market
share.
(e) Discuss the meaning of the figures you just calculated: who has stronger market share in
terms of total market and segmented market?
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Contribution Margins (CM)
3. (a) What is the meaning of contribution margin? What is the difference between
contribution margin expressed in terms of % sales vs. % selling price?
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(b) Can the terms “contribution margin” and “profit margin” be used interchangeably? Why
or why not?
(c) Fly-a-kite Canada carries a 35 item product line. Their newest addition was the Batman
kite, which they sold at $26.75 (to distributors). Variable cost per kite is $8.09. Assuming
they sold 110,500 kites in 1996, calculate contribution margin as a percentage of sales
and selling price.
(d) Refer to question c. Fly-a-kite hired 50 kite experts to build the Batman kites and paid
them each a $40,000 salary for 1996. Since experts needed special tools to build these
Batman kites, Fly-a-kite spent $70,000 on new machinery and equipment. Calculate the
profit margin in dollars and as a percentage of sales.
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4. TrueWax Company sells their scented candles to wholesalers for $5.89 each. If variable
costs amount to $2.83 per candle, what is the unit contribution margin in dollars and as a
percentage of selling price?
5. Use the following information to calculate total contribution margin as dollars and as a
percentage of the per unit selling price.
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Breakeven (BE) Analysis
7. (a) Heinz sells their 400ml bottle of ketchup for $2.99 per bottle. Variable costs per unit
is $1.85. Fixed production and distribution expenses amount to $10.6 million. Calculate
break-even in units and required break-even dollar sales.
(b) Assume the total Canadian market for ketchup is $375 million. Calculate Heinz’s break-
even market share.
8. Jack’s Key shop is going through a rough period in terms of business. For the past 2 years
Jack’s corner store has been experiencing a decrease in demand. For 1998, Jack would
like to know how many keys he needs to sell to break-even. Use the following
information to help Jack.
It is October 1st, 1997 and Jack has sold 1,859 keys. What do you recommend Jack do?
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9. Use the following information from firm ‘C’ to answer questions a-d.
Average price for existing beer fridge = $480
Tentative price for new beer fridge with freezer = $595
(a) Calculate Firm C’s break-even point for its new fridge with freezer in units and dollars.
(b) Calculate Firm C’s required break-even market share for its new fridge with freezer.
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(c) Is market share feasible? Why or why not?
(d) Suppose that the average price of a beer fridge with freezer, in Firm C’s target segment is
$620, and also suppose that the largest market that Firm C can hope to achieve is 20% of
segment sales. What is the lowest average price Firm C can charge for its beer fridge with
freezer and still break-even?
10. General Motors plans to launch a new car January 1, 2000. This new vehicle will be powered
by electric current. GM wants to minimize fixed costs, by choosing test markets rather than
providing for the complete North American launch. Financial analysis shows required break-
even market share to 15% above projected. Given this information, how can GM reduce market
share required to break-even?
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Price Chains
Manufacturer’s VC $6.35
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin
Manufacturer’s %% Margin
Wholesaler’s VC
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Wholesaler’s %% Margin
Distributor’s Price
Distributor’s COGS
Distributor’s $$ Margin
Retail Price
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
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(b)
Manufacturer’s Price $80.15
Manufacturer’s VC $45.20
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin
Manufacturer’s %% Margin
Wholesaler’s Price
Wholesaler’s VC
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Distributor’s Price
Distributor’s COGS
Distributor’s $$ Margin
Retail Price
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
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(c)
Manufacturer’s Price
Manufacturer’s VC
Wholesaler’s Price
Wholesaler’s VC
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 9%
Retail Price
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
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(d)
Manufacturer’s Price $360.00
Manufacturer’s VC $110.00
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin
Manufacturer’s %% Margin
Wholesaler’s Price
Wholesaler’s VC
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Wholesaler’s %% Margin
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
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(e)
Manufacturer’s Price $85.00
Manufacturer’s VC
Manufacturer’s %% Margin
Wholesaler’s VC
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Wholesaler’s %% Margin
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
Retail %% Margin
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12. Now try solving one that’s inverted. If you can do this one, you’re all set!
Retail Price $650.00
Retail COGS
Retail $$ Margin
Retail %% Margin
Wholesaler’s COGS
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin
Wholesaler’s %% Margin
Manufacturer’s VC
Manufacturer’s %% Margin
13. If the price elasticity of 1 liter of Gallo wine increases from $12.00 to $15.00, and
demand for wine in Quebec decreased from 68,000,000 bottles of wine sold per year to
65,000,000 bottles per year. Calculate price elasticity of wine, and explain your results.
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14. Indicate if the following products are suitable for price promotion.
B. If the price elasticity for product A is -2 and price increases by 2%, the quantity
demanded:
(a) decreases by 4%
(b) increases by 1%
(c) decreases by 2%
(d) does not change
(e) is indeterminable with the data provided
C. If the percentage change in price is greater than the percentage change in quantity
demanded, product B is:
(a) elastic
(b) inelastic
(c) unit-elastic
(d) none of the above
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D. If a 10% increase in the price of ski lift tickets causes a 5% decrease in demand, then ski
tickets are:
(a) elastic
(b) inelastic
(c) unit-elastic
(d) none of the above
16. Just a couple more… you’ll thank me. Calculate price elasticity for the following:
(a) Soft n’ Dry deodorant was featured in the drugstore circular. Regular price was
$3.49 and the special promoted price was $2.29. Sales increased from 300 units
per week, to 560 units per week.
(b) The price of Eggo’s increase by 30%. Demand fell from 15,000 units to 12,000
units.
(c) Demand for CD players increased by 55% when price was reduced from $650 to
$400.
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Cross-Price Elasticity (CPE)
Which of the following pairs of goods is likely to have a cross-elasticity that is positive?
18. Calculate cross-price elasticity between bread and butter when butter is promoted.
19. Calculate cross-price elasticity between butter and margarine when butter is promoted.
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20. Calculate cross-price elasticity between bread and margarine when bread is promoted.
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BASIC QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS SOLUTION SET
Market Share
1.
14,000,000× $ 1.69
(a) =2.78 %
$ 850,000,000
14,000,000× $ 1.69
(b) =9.94 %
$ 850,000,000× 0.28
2.
(a) $ 105,000,000+$ 800,500,000=13.12 %
$ 105,000,000÷ 692,430,000=0.15∨15 %
(e) While Firm A is probably larger, both firms have sound positions within their respective
segments.
Contribution Margin
3. (a) Contribution margin (CM) tells you how much is ‘left over’ after accounting for VC, to
cover fixed costs and profit.
CM(% on Sales) = (Total Sales – Total VC)/Total Sales (all per total sales)
CM(unit) = SP – VC
(b) Absolutely NOT! A contribution margin, as stated before, is what is left over after having
accounted for the VC to cover your FC (CM = SP – VC). On the other hand, PM is what is left
after having accounted for both VC and FC (PM = SP – VC – FC).
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PM = Total Sales – Total VC – Total FC
7.
(a)
CM$ = $2.99 - $1.85 = $1.14
CM% = $1.14/$2.99 = 38.13%
BE $ = $10,600,000/0.3813 = $27,799,632
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(b) BE ms = $27,799,632/$375,000,000 = 7.41%
8.
SP = $3.89
VC = $1.75 + (0.02*$3.89) = $1.83
FC = $4,500 + $2,500 + $5,000 = $12,000
Since Jack is only 1/3 of the way there, and he only has 3 months left of the year… it’s obvious
he should consider closing shop.
9.
(a)
1. Calculate TVC
2. Calculate TFC
Rent = $ 96,000
O/H = $890,000
Advertising = $2,950,000
Other FC = $602,000
TFC = $4,538,000
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(b)
Total Beer Fridge market = $510,400,000*0.15 = $76, 560,000
Beer Fridge w/ freezer market = $76,560,000*0.46 = $35,217,600
(c)
For: 35% is not impossible if you look at other market leaders, but you are launching a product
(remember what that implies)
Against (stronger argument): might be high because big guys own over 50% of the market.
(d)
BE new = 0.20*$35,217,600 = $7,043,520
$2,505,520P = $2,648,081,779/$2,505,520
P = $1,056.90
10.
Analyze
BE ms = BE sales$/Total Sales (market)
BE units = FC/ CM$ (SP-VC)
BE $ = FC/([SP-VC]/SP)
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11. Solve the following price chains:
(a)
Manufacturer’s Price $15.55
Manufacturer’s VC $6.35
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $9.20
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 59% (9.2/15.55)
Wholesaler’s Price $22.21
Wholesaler’s VC $15.55
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $6.66
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 30%
Distributor’s Price $25.24
Distributor’s COGS $22.21
Distributor’s $$ Margin $3.03
Distributor’s %% Margin 12%
Retail Price $33.65
Retail COGS $25.24
Retail $$ Margin $8.41
Retail %% Margin 25%
(b)
Manufacturer’s Price $80.15
Manufacturer’s VC $45.20
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $34.95
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 44%
Wholesaler’s Price $91.08
Wholesaler’s VC $80.15
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $10.93
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 12%
Distributor’s Price $107.15
Distributor’s COGS $91.08
Distributor’s $$ Margin $16.07
Distributor’s %% Margin 15%
Retail Price $133.94
Retail COGS $107.15
Retail $$ Margin $26.79
Retail %% Margin 20%
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(c)
Manufacturer’s Price $20.00
Manufacturer’s VC $10.00
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $10.00
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 50%
Wholesaler’s Price $21.98
Wholesaler’s VC $20.00
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $1.98
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 9%
Retail Price $39.96
Retail COGS $21.98
Retail $$ Margin $17.98
Retail %% Margin 45%
(d)
Manufacturer’s Price $360.00
Manufacturer’s VC $110.00
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $250.00
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 69%
Wholesaler’s Price $400.00
Wholesaler’s VC $360.00
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $40.00
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 10%
Retail Price $533.33
Retail COGS $400.00
Retail $$ Margin $133.33
Retail %% Margin 25%
(e)
Manufacturer’s Price $85.00
Manufacturer’s VC $49.00 (85-36)
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $36.00
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 42%
Wholesaler’s Price $115.00
Wholesaler’s VC $85.00
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $30.00
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 26%
Retail Price $175.00
Retail COGS $115.00
Retail $$ Margin $60.00
Retail %% Margin 34%
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12. Now try solving one that’s inverted. If you can do this one, you’re all set!
Retail Price $650.00
Retail COGS $400.00
Retail $$ Margin $250.00
Retail %% Margin 38%
Wholesaler’s Price $400.00
Wholesaler’s COGS $310.00
Wholesaler’s $$ Margin $90.00
Wholesaler’s %% Margin 23%
Manufacturer’s Price $310.00
Manufacturer’s VC $120.00 (310-190)
Manufacturer’s $$ Margin $190.00
Manufacturer’s %% Margin 61%
13.
14.
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15.
A) a
B) a
|PE| = |-2| = change in D%/ change in P% = (-4%)/2% = |-2%| = 2
C) b
Example: % change D/ % change P = 2%/15% = 0.133 < 1
Therefore, price is inelastic.
D) b
change %D/ change %P = (-.05)/.1 = |-0.5| = 0.5 < 1
Therefore, price is inelastic.
16.
(a) % change D = (560-300)/300 = +0.87
% change P = +0.3
17.
Answer: b
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Bread and cheese = compliments
Perfume and garden hoses = unrelated
18.
Butter % change P = (2.79-3.09)/3.09 = -0.10
19.
Butter % change P = (2.79-3.09)/3.09 = -0.10
20.
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