Handout 03 Probability Theory (1)

03. Probability Theory

The term probability refers to the study of randomness and uncertainty. In any situation in which
one of a number of possible outcomes may occur, the theory of probability provides methods for
quantifying the chances or likelihoods associated with the various outcomes.
Basic Terminology in Probability
In general, probability is the chance something will happen. Probabilities are expressed as
fractions ( 1/6, ½ , 8/9 ) or as decimals (0.167, 0.500, 0.889) between zero and one. Assigning a probability
zero means that something can never happen; a probability 1 indicates that something will always happen.
(1) A Random experiment
An experiment which produces different results even though it is repeated a large number of times under
essentially similar conditions is called a random experiment
(2) Sample Space and Events
The set S of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called a Sample space. An element
in S, is called a sample point or a simple event.
(i) inspecting a light bulb, S = {defective, non-defective}
(ii) Rolling a die, S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
(iii) Measuring a tensile strength of wire, S : 50%, to 90%, say
(iv) Counting daily traffic accidents in a city. S : the integers in some intervals.
(v) Asking for opinion about a new car model. S = {Like, Dislike, Undecided}
(3) A Simple Event
A simple event is the most basic outcome of a random experiment.
(4) An Event
An event A is a collection of simple events. or, in other words, a subset of the Sample space S.
The empty set  is called the impossible event, and S, the sample space is called the certain or sure event.
In (ii), events are A = Odd numbers = {1,3,5}, B = Even numbers = {2,4,6} etc. simple events are
{1}, {2}, …, {6}.
(5) Union and Intersections
The union A  B of A and B consists of all points in A or B or both.
The intersection A  B of A and B consists of all points in both A and B.
The events  and S are called impossible event and sure event resp.
(6) Complementary Events

The complementary of an event A is the event A that occurs when A does not occur., i.e. the event

consisting of all simple events that are not in event A. We will denote the complement of A by Ac or A.
(7) Complementary Relationships
The sum of the probabilities of complementary events equals 1. That is

P(A)+P(A) = 1
Example (1)
A fair coin is tossed ten times and the up face is recorded after each toss. What is the probability
of event A: {observe at least one head}

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (2)

Solution
Since we know the probability of the complement of A, we use the relation ship for the
complementary events:
 1 1023
P(A) = 1 – P(A) = 1 - = = .999
1024 1024
That is, we are virtually certain of observing at least one head in 10 tosses of the coin.
Properties of Events
If A and B are two events then they may be
(i) Equally Likely
(ii) Exhaustive
(iii) Mutually Exclusive
(i) Equally Likely Events
Two events A and B are said to be equally likely, when one event is as likely to occur as the
other. In other words, each event should occur in equal number in repeated trials. For example when a fair
coin is tossed, the head is as likely to appear as the tail.
(ii) Exhaustive Events
Events are said to be collectively exhaustive, when the union of mutually exclusive events is the
entire sample space S. A group of mutually exclusive and exhaustive events is called a partition of the
sample space. For instance, event A and Ac form a partition as they are mutually exclusive and their union
is the entire sample space.
(iii) Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B of a single experiment are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint if and only if they
cannot both occur at the same time.
(8) Unions and Intersections of 3 Events

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (3)

Example (2)
A survey has been taken on methods of computer travel. Each respondent was asked to check BUS,
TRAIN or AUTOMOBILE as a major method of traveling to work. More than one answer was permitted.
The results reported were as follows: TRAIN 30 people, TRAIN 35 people, AUTOMOBILE 100 people,
BUS and TRAIN 15 people, BUS and AUTOMOBILE 15 people, TRAIN and AUTOMOBILE 20
people and all three methods 5 people. How many people completed a survey form.
Example (3)
A survey of 500 television watchers produced the following information: 285 watch football games, 195
watch hockey games, 115 watch basketball games, 45 watch football and basketball games, 70 watch
football and hockey games, 50 watch hockey and basketball games, and 50 do not watch any of the three
kinds of the games.
a) How many people in the survey watch all three kinds of games?
b) How many people watch exactly one of the games?
Chapter 1, Sec. 1.2
Ref: “Discrete Mathematical Structures” by Bernard Kolman, International Ed, Prentice Hall.
(9) The Probability of an Event
The probability of event A is defined as
n(A) no. of favourable cases to A
P(A) = =
n(S) Total possible cases
This is a classical approach.
We observe that
(i) 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
(ii) P() = 0
(iii) P(S) = 1
(10) Probability Space
If the probability of each sample point in a sample space is known then it is called the probability
space, such that
(i) pi  0
(ii)  pi = 1
Example (4)
Give a collectively exhaustive list of the possible outcomes of tossing two dice. Also give the probability
for each of the following totals in the rolling of two dice: 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10 and 11.
Solution
An exhaustive list of all possible outcomes of tossing two dice: (dice 1, dice 2)
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }
P(1) = 0/36 = 0, P(2) = 1/36, P(5) = 4/36, P(6) = 5/36, P(7) = 6/36, P(10) = 3/36, P(11) = 2/36
Addition Law for Mutually Exclusive Events
We know that two events are mutually exclusive when AB = . Consequently, for two mutually
exclusive events A and B

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (4)

P(AB) = P() = 0

Thus, when events A and B are mutually exclusive (in the sense that they cannot occur at the
same time), then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
Generalization let the events a, B and C are mutually exclusive, then
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C)
Compound Events
An event can often be viewed as a composition of two or more other events. Such events are
called Compound Events; they can be formed (composed) in two ways. For example AB, AB.
Additive Law for not Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of events A and B is the sum of the probabilities of events A and B
minus the probability of the intersection of events A and B, i.e.
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)  P(AB)
Example (5)
(i) Find the probability that on a single draw from a pack of playing cards we draw a spade or a
face card or both.
(ii) A fair dice is rolled once. You win Rs.5/- if the outcome is either even or divisible by 3. What
is the probability of winning the game?
(iii) A customer enters a food store. The probability that the customer buys (a) bread is 0.60 (b)
milk is 0.50 and (c) both bread and milk is 0.30. What is the probability that the customer
would by either bread or milk or both?
Conditional Probability
Let us consider the sample space given by throwing a die. i.e. S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}. Consider the
event A = {4}. i.e. the number 4 appears on the die as a result of the throw. Then the probability of A,
denoted by P(A) is 1/6. Further take the event B = {2, 4, 6}. Now if we say that the event B had already
A
taken place and we consider the probability of A. Then we write P( ) or P(AB) and is given by
B
A P(AB)
P( ) =
B P(B)
i.e. the conditional probability of A given that the event B has already occurred
Example (6)
A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of two dice will be 7,
given that,(i) the sum is odd,(ii) the sum is greater than 6,(iii) the two dice had the same out come?
Solution
The sample space S for this experiment consists of the following 36 equally likely out comes;
S = { (1,1), (1,2), (1,3), (1,4), (1,5), (1,6),
(2,1), (2,2), (2,3), (2,4), (2,5), (2,6),
(3,1), (3,2), (3,3), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6),
(4,1), (4,2), (4,3), (4,4), (4,5), (4,6),
(5,1), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5), (5,6),
(6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) }
Let A = {the sum is 7},
B = {the sum is odd}

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (5)

C = {the sum is greater than 6}, and

D = {the two dice had the same outcomes}.

Then
A = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
B = {(1,2), (1,4), (1,6), (2,1), (2,3), (2,5),
(3,2), (3,4), (3,6), (4,1), (4,3), (4,5),
(5,2), (5,4), (5,6), (6,1), (6,3), (6,5)},
C = {(1,6), (2,5), (2,6), (3,4), (3,5), (3,6), (4,3),
(4,4), (4,5), (4,6), (5,2), (5,3), (5,4), (5,5),
(5,6), (6,1), (6,2), (6,3), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6)},
D = {(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)},
AB = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AC = {(1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (5,2), (6,1)},
AD = 
3 18
So, P(A) = , P(B) = ,
36 36
21 6
P(C) = , P(D) =
36 36
6 6
P(AB) = , P(AC) = ,
36 36
P(AD) = 0
Hence using the definition of conditional probability, we get
P(AB) 3 36 1
P(A/B) = =  =
P(B) 36 18 3
P(AC) 3 36 2
P(A/C) = =  =
P(C) 36 21 7
P(AD) 36
P(A/D) = =0 =0
P(D) 3
Multiplication Law for Probability (General Rule)
If A and be any two events defined in a sample space S, then
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A), provided P(A)  0
= P(B) P(A/B), provided P(B)  0
The conditional probability of B given A has occurred is
P(AB)
P(B/A) = , provided P(A)  0
P(A)
by multiplying both sides with P(A), we get
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A)
This is called the general rule of multiplication for probabilities.
Example (7)
A box contains 15 items, 4 of which are defective and 11 are good. Two items are selected. What
is the probability that the first is good and second is defective?
Solution
Let A denotes the event that the first item selected is good and B, the event that the second item is
defective. Then we need to calculate the probability P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A)

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (6)

11
Now P(A) =
15
Given the event A has occurred, there remains 14 items of which 4 are defective. Therefore the
probability of selecting the defective after a good has been selected,
4
i.e. P(A/B) =
14
11 4 44
Hence P(AB) = P(A).P(B/A) =  = = 0.16
15 14 210
Example (8)
Two cards are dealt from a pack of ordinary playing cards. Find the probability that the second
card dealt is a heart?
Solution
Let H1 represents the event that the first card dealt is a heart, and H2, the event that the second
card dealt is a heart. Then
P(the second card is a heart) = P(the first card is a heart and the second card is a heart)
+ P(the first card is not a heart and the second card is a heart)
_
i.e. P(H2) = P(H1H2) + P(H1H2)
_ _
= P(H1) P(H2/H1) + P(H1) P(H2/H1)
13 12 39 13 1 13 17 1
=  +  = + = =
52 51  52 51  17 68 68 4
Multiplication Law
The probability of the events A and B when they both occur is equal to the product of their
respective probabilities and denote it by the event AB
P(AB) = P(A)  P(B)
We will discuss the two cases later, whenever the two events are independent or dependent.
Example (9)
During winter, Mr. Fazal experiences difficulty in starting his two cars. The probability that the
first car starts is 0.80 and the probability that the second car starts is 0.40. There is a probability of 0.30
that both the cars start.
(a) define the events involved and use probability notation to show the probability
information given above.
(b) What is the probability that at least one car starts?
(c) What is the probability that Mr. Fazal cannot start either of the two cars.
Solution
We denote
Event A: that first car starts
Event B: that second car starts
Event AB: that both cars start
Event AB: that either of the two cars start, so
Event ABc: that A starts but B cannot start
Event Ac B: that B starts but A cannot start
Hence given information is
P(A) = 0.80  P(Ac) = 0.20

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (7)

P(B) = 0.40  P(Bc) = 0.60

P(AB) = 0.30
Now
Ac Bc = (AB)c denote the event that no car starts
Therefore 1- P( (AB)c ) denotes that at least one car starts
i.e. 1- P( (AB)c ) = 1 – P(Ac Bc) = 1 – {P(Ac)  P(Bc) } = 1 – (0.20  0.60) = 1 – 0.12 = 0.88
alternatively we find the probability:
P(ABc) + P(Ac B) + P(AB) = 0.800.60 + 0.200.40 + 0.800.40 = 0.88
Exercise 24.3 (Kreyszig 10th)
(1) In rolling 3 fair dice, what is the probability of obtaining a sum not greater than 16?
Sol. There are 125 total possible cases when 3 dice are rolled. Let X denotes the sum; then
Corresponding triplet are:
For X = 3 (1,1,1), therefore P[X=3] = 1/125
For X = 4 (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1,), Therefore P[X=4] = 3/125
For X = 5 (1,2,2), (2,1,2), (2,2,1), (1,1,3), (1,3,1), (3,1,1,) , therefore P[X = 5] = 6/125
and For X = 6 (2,2,2),(1,2,3),(1,3,2),(2,1,3),(2,3,1),(3,1,2),(3,2,1),(1,1,4),(1,4,1),(4,1,1)
therefore P[X = 6] = 10/125
Hence total required probability = 1/125 + 3/125 + 6/125 + 10/125 = 20/125 = 4/25
(2) What is the probability of obtaining at least one head in tossing six fair coins?
Sol. total possible cases = 2 6 = 64
Event A that at least one head is obtained
So Ac is the event of obtaining no head
As P(A) + P(Ac) = 1
 P(A) = 1 – P(Ac)
Now Ac = {TTTTTT} that all six outcomes are tails
Therefore P(Ac) = 1/64
Hence P(A) = 1 – 1/64 = 63/64
(3) In rolling two fair dice. What is the probability of obtaining a sum greater than 10 or a sum
divisible by 6?
Sol. Two fair dice are rolled, n(S) = 36
Event A that sum is greater than 10 and event B is that sum divisible by 6
n(A) = 3, n(B) = 6 and n(AB) = 1
so P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= 3/36 + 6/36 – 1/36 = 8/36 = 2/9
(4) If a box contains 10 left handed screws and 20 right handed screws, what is the probability of
obtaining at least one right handed screw in drawing 2 screws (i) with replacement (ii) without
replacement.
(5) Three screws are drawn at random from a lot of 100 screws. 10 of which are defective. Find the
probability of the event that all 3 screws drawn are non defective, assuming that we draw (a) with
replacement (b) without replacement.
Sol. Defective = 10, good = 90 and total = 100
Experiment : 3 are drawn
(i) with replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 90/100 × 90/100 = (0.9)3 = 72.9%
(ii) without replacement
required probability = 90/100 × 89/99 × 88/98 = 72.65%

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (8)

(6) Three boxes contain five chips each, numbered from 1 to 5 and one chip is drawn from each box.
Find the probability of the event E that the sum of the numbers on the drawn chips is greater than
4.
Sol. Box I = {1,2,3,4,5}, Box II = {1,2,3,4,5} and Box III = {1,2,3,4,5}
one number is drawn from each box, so total possible drawl = (5)3 = 125
event E that the sum of the numbers is greater than 4
so Ec = {(1,1,1), (1,1,2), (1,2,1), (2,1,1)}
therefore P(Ec) = 4/125
 P(E) = 1 – 4/125 = 121/125
(7) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 25 oversized rods, 25 undersized rods, and 50 rods of the
desired length. If two rods are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of
obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length (b) one of the desired length (c) none of the desired
length (d) two undersized rods.
Sol. oversized = 25, undersized = 25, desired length = 50, total = 100
Experiment : two are drawn without replacement

50 49
(a) P(2 are of desired length) =  = 0.2474
100 99
This is the case of without replacement
50 50
(b) P(1 is of desired length) = 2  = 0.505
100 99
Actually these are the two either or cases (i) 1 st of desired length and 2 nd is not of desired
length (ii) 1st is not of desired length and 2nd of desired length
50 49
(c) P(no of desired length) = 1 -  = 1 - 0.2474 = 0.7526
100 99
50 49
(d) P(2 are undersized) = 100  99 = 0.2474
(8) A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 50 oversized rods, 50 undersized rods, and 100 rods of the
desired length. If two rods are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of
obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length (b) exactly one of the desired length (c) none of the
desired length.
(7) If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 40,000 miles with probability 0.90. What is the
probability that a set of these tires on a car will last longer than 40,000 miles?
Sol. p = 0.95, i.e. the probability of a tire having life exceeding 25000 miles
P(a set of 4) = (0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90)( 0.90) = (0.90)4
(8) If a certain kind of tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles with probability 0.95. What is the
probability that at least one of the tires will not last for 25000 miles?
Sol. Probability that a tire has life exceeding 25000 miles = 0.95
Let A be the event that
P(no tire has a life exceeding 25000 miles) = (0.05)4
therefore P(at least one) = 1  (0.05)4
(11) If we inspect sheets of paper by drawing 3 sheets without replacement from every lot of 100
sheets, what is the probability of getting 3 clean sheets although 8% of the sheets contain
impurities?
Sol. p = 0.92, the probability of a sheet to contain purity
P(3 clean sheets) = (0.92)3

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (9)

Some Unsolved Problems from the Exercise 23.3

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (10)

Permutation and Combinations

Permutation and Combinations are used in finding P(A) by symbolically counting the favourable
cases and total possible cases for the event A.
Def. Permutations
Permutations of given things (elements or objects) in an arrangement of these things in a row in
some order.

Examples
(1) for three letters a, b, c, there are 3! = 6 permutations: abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
(2) If a box contains 6 red and 4 blue balls, then the number of permutations of these balls
taken all at a time is
10!
= 210
6!  4!

Example
Suppose we arrange 3 letters using a, b, b, c, d, e, then different permutations without repetition
5!
are: = 60
(5-3)!
and with repetitions are: 53 = 125

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (11)

Definition

Example
Combinations of letters {a, b, c, d, e} taken 2 at a time
Without repetition: 5! / 3! 2! = 10 and
With repetition: 6! / 4! 2! = 15

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (12)

Independent Events
Events A and B are independent if the occurrence of B does not alter the probability that A has
occurred, i.e., events A and B are independent if
P(A/B) = P(A)
When events A and B are independent it will also be true that
P(B/A) = P(B)
Events that are not independent are said to be dependent.
Example (10)
Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin twice and recording the up face on each toss. The
following events are defined:
A: {first toss is a head}
B: {second toss is a head}
Does knowing that event A has occurred affect the probability that B will occur?
Solution
Intuitively the answer should be no, since what occurs on the first toss should in no way affect
what occurs on the second toss. The sample space for this experiment is
S = {HH, TH, HT, TT} and A = { HH, HT}, B = { HH, TH}
Each of these simple events has a probability of ¼. Thus,
P(B) = P(HH) + P(TH) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
and P(A) = P(HH) + P(HT) = ¼ + ¼ = ½
Now, what is P(B/A)?
P(AB) P(HH) 1/4 1
P(B/A) = = = = P(B)
P(A) P(A) 1/2 2
We can now see that P(B) = ½. Knowing that the first resulted in a head does not affect the
probability that the second toss will be a head.
Hence the two events A and B are independent.
Example (11)
Consider the experiment of tossing a fair die and define the following events
A = {observe an even number}
B = {observe a number less than or equal to 4}
Are events A and B are independent?
Solution
We first calculate
P(A)= P(2) + P(4) + P(6) = ½
P(B)= P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = 4/6 = 2/3
P(AB) = P(2) + P(4) = 2/6 = 1/3
Now assume that B has occurred, the conditional probability of A given B is
(AB) 1/3
P(A/B) = = = ½ = P(A)
P(B) 2/3
Therefore the events A and B are independent.
Note that if we calculate the conditional probability of B given A, our conclusion is the same:
(AB) 1/3
P(B/A) = = = 2/3 = P(B)
P(A) 1/2

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Handout 03 Probability Theory (13)

Example (12)
_ _
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, P(AB) = 0.24, find P(A/B), P(AB), P(A/B), P(B/A), P(B).
What is the relation between A and B?
Solution
Given P(A) = 0.60, P(B) = 0.40, and P(AB) = 0.24. Then
P(AB) 0.24
P(A/B) = = = 0.60
P(B) 0.40
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= 0.60 + 0.40 – 2024 = 0.76
_
_ P(AB) P(A) - P(AB) 0.60 - 0.24 0.36
P(A/B) = = = = 0.60
P(B) 1 - P(B) 1 - 0.4 0.60
P(BA) 0.24
P(B/A) = = = 0.40
P(A) 0.60
_
P(B) = 1 – P(B) = 1 – 0.40 = 0.60
The event A and B are independent as
P(A/B) = 0.60 = P(A)
P(B/A) = 0.40 = P(B)
and P(AB) = 0.24 = (0.60) (0.40) = P(A) P(B)
Example (13)
Let A and B be two events associated with an experiment. Suppose that
P(A) = 0.5 and P(AB) = 0.6. Find P(B) if
(i) A and B mutually exclusive?
(ii) A and B independent?
(iv) P(A/B) = 0.4
Solution
when A and B are mutually exclusive, then
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B)
i.e. 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B)
 P(B) = 0.10
When A and B are independent, we have
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A) P(B)
= P(A) + P(B) [1 – P(A)]
or 0.60 = 0.50 + P(B) [1 – 0.50]
or 0.10 = 0.5 P(B)
or P(B) = 0.20
P(AB) P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
(iii) P(A/B) = =
P(B) P(B)
0.50 + P(B) - 0.60
or 0.40 =
P(B)
or 0.40P(B) = P(B) – 0.10
or 0.10 = 0.60 P(B)
 P(B) = 1/6 = 0.17

Muhammad Naeem, Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics

Handout 03 Probability Theory (14)

Example (14)
Indicate whether each of the following statements is true or false, indicate why.
(i) If P(A/B) = 0, then A and B are mutually exclusive.
(ii) If P(A/B) = 0, then A and B are independent.
(iii) If P(A/B) = P(B/A), then P(A) = P(B).
(iv) If A and B are independent, then P(A) = P(B).
Solution
(i) the statement is true.
(ii) The statement is false. If A and B are independent, then P(A/B) = P(A)
(iii) the statement is true.
(iv) The statement is false “Independent” does not mean that two events have equal probabilities.
Example (15)
An urn contains 10 white and 3 black balls. Another contains 3 white and 5 black balls. Two balls
are transferred from first urn and placed into second and then one ball is taken from the latter. What is the
probability that it is a white ball?
Solution
Let A be the event that two balls are drawn from the first urn and transferred into
second urn. Then A can occur in the following three mutually exclusive ways:
A1 = 2 white balls
A2 = 1 white ball and I blackball
A3 = 2 black balls
10 9 15
Thus P(A1) =  =
13 12 26
10 3 5
P(A2) =  =
13 12 26
3 2 1
and P(A3) =  =
13 12 26
The second urn after having transferred 2 balls from the first urn, contains
(i) 5 white and 5 black balls (2 white balls transferred)
(ii) 4 white and 6 black balls (1 white and 1 black ball transferred)
(iii) 3 white and 7 black balls (2 black balls transferred)
Let W represent the event that a white ball is drawn from the second urn after
having transferred 2 balls from the first urn. Then
P(W) = P(WA1) + P(WA2) + P(WA3)
5 15 15
Now P(WA1) =  =
10 26 52
4 5 4
P(WA2) =  =
10 26 52
3 1 3
P(WA3) =  =
10 26 260
Hence the required probability is
15 4 3 98
P(W) = + + = = 0.3769
52 52 260 260
Example (16)
A card is drawn from a deck of ordinary playing cards. What is the probability that it is a
diamond, a face card or a king?

Muhammad Naeem, Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics

Handout 03 Probability Theory (15)

Solution
Let A = the card drawn is diamond
B = the card drawn is a face card
and C = the card drawn is a king.
Then we need
P(ABC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) – P(AB) – P(BC) – P(AC) + P(ABC)
13 12 4
Now P(A) = , P(B) = , P(C) =
52 52 52
13 3 3
P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A) =  =
52 13 52
12 4 4
P(BC) = P(B) P(C/B) =  =
52 12 52
13 1 1
P(AC) = P(A) P(C/A) =  =
52 13 52
P(ABC) = P(A) P(B/A) P(C/AB)
13 3 1 1
=   =
52 13 3 52
Hence we get
13 12 4 3 4 1 1 22
P(ABC) = + + - - - + = = 0.423
52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52

Example (17)
Three urns of the same appearance are given as follows:
Urn A contains 5 red and 7 white balls
Urn B contains 4 red and 3 white balls
Urn C contains 3 red and 4 white balls
An urn is selected at random and a ball is drawn from that urn.
(i) What is the probability that the ball drawn is red?
(ii) If the ball drawn is red, what is probability that it came from urn A?
Solution
Here we first select one of the three urns and then we draw a ball, which is either red (R) or white
(W). In other words, we perform a sequence of two experiments. This process is described by the
probability tree diagram (as shown on the right) , in which each branch of the tree give the respective
probability.
1 5 5
Now the probability of selecting urn A, for instance, and then a red ball (R) is  =
3 2 36
because the probability that any particular path of the tree occurs is, by the multiplication law, the
product of the probability of each branch of the path.
Now the probability of drawing a rd ball is given by the relation
P(R) = P(A) P(R/A) + P(B) P(R/B) + P(C) P(R/C)
As there are three mutually exclusive paths leading to the drawing of a red ball.
1 5 1 4 1 3
Hence P(R) =  +  + 
3 12 3 7 3 7
119
= = 0.4722
12
Here we need the probability that the urn A is selected, given that ball drawn is red, that is,
P(P/A). By definition,

Muhammad Naeem, Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics

Handout 03 Probability Theory (16)

(AR)
P(A/R) =
P(R)
But P(AR) = probability that earn A is selected and a red ball is drawn is
1 5 5
=  =
3 12 36
5/36 35
Hence P(A/R) = =
119/252 119
= 0.294
Example (18)
In a study involving a manufacturing process, the probability was 0.10 that a part tested was
defective and a probability that a part was produced on machine A was 0.30. Given that a part was
produced on machine A, there is 0.15 probability that it is defective.
(a) What is the probability that a part tested is both defective and produced by machine A?
(b) If a part is found to be defective, what is the probability that it came from machine A?
(c) Is finding a defective part independent of its being produced on machine A? Explain.
(d) What is the probability of the part being either defective or produced by machine A?
(e) Are the events “a defective part” and “produced by machine A” mutually exclusive
events? Explain.
Hints:
Define the events; D: a part tested is defective, E: a part is produced by machine A
Given information: P(D) = 0.10, P(E) = 0.30, P(D/E) = 0.15
Find P(DE), P(E/D). Check P(D/E) = P(D) and P(E/D) = P(E). Also check P(DE)
For mutually exclusive, check P(DE) = 0
Example (19)
The probability that Mr. Khan will get an offer on the first job he applied for is 0.5 and the
probability that he will get an offer on the second job he applied for is 0.6. He thinks that the probability
that he will get an offer on both jobs is 0.15.
(a) Define the events involved and use probability notation to show the probability
information.
(b) What is the probability that Mr Khan gets an offer on the second job given that he
receives an offer for the first job.
(c) What is the probability that Mr Khan gets an offer on at least one of the jobs he applied
for.
(d) What is the probability that Mr Khan gets an offer only of the job he applied for?
(e) Are the jobs offers independent? Explain.
Assignment (1)
In a study involving manufacturing process the probability is 0.10 that a part is tested turns out to
be defective and the probability that a part was produced on machine A is 0.30. Given that a part was
produced on machine A there is a 0.15 probability that it is defective.
(f) What is the probability that a part tested is both defective and produced by machine A?
(g) If a part is found defective, what is the probability that it came from machine A?
(h) Is finding a defective part independent of its being produced on machine A?
(i) What is the probability of the part being defective or produced by machine A?
(j) Are the events ‘a defective part’ and ‘produced by machine A’ mutually exclusive
events? Explain.

Muhammad Naeem, Assistant Professor Department of Mathematics