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Question No.3a: Subdivision Year Annual (In MM) Forecast - Error - Error 2 APE

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Question No.

3a α 1-α
0.3101 0.6899

ANNUAL
SUBDIVISION YEAR FORECAST |ERROR| ERROR^2 APE
(IN MM)
Gujarat Region 1997 1068.90
Gujarat Region 1998 1070.00 1068.90 1.10 1.21 0.11
Gujarat Region 1999 568.40 1069.24 500.84 250841.87 44131.22
Gujarat Region 2000 550.60 913.91 363.31 131991.66 23972.33
Gujarat Region 2001 849.00 801.23 47.77 2282.17 268.81
Gujarat Region 2002 637.20 816.04 178.84 31985.30 5019.66
Gujarat Region 2003 1160.30 760.58 399.72 159779.09 13770.50
Gujarat Region 2004 1005.80 884.55 121.25 14701.68 1461.69
Gujarat Region 2005 1316.40 922.16 394.24 155429.08 11807.13
Gujarat Region 2006 1478.00 1044.43 433.57 187983.72 12718.79
Gujarat Region 2007 1178.90 1178.90 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gujarat Region 2008 911.10 1178.90 267.80 71716.84 7871.46
Gujarat Region 2009 641.60 1095.84 454.24 206336.27 32159.64
Gujarat Region 2010 1088.70 954.96 133.74 17886.29 1642.90
Gujarat Region 2011 890.50 996.44 105.94 11223.15 1260.32
Gujarat Region 2012 714.00 963.58 249.58 62291.45 8724.29
Gujarat Region 2013 1118.60 886.18 232.42 54021.30 4829.37
Gujarat Region 2014 705.70 958.26 252.56 63787.12 9038.84
Gujarat Region 2015 622.90 879.93 257.03 66064.39 10605.94
Gujarat Region 2016 764.90 800.21 35.31 1246.99 163.03
233.12 78398.40 9970.84
MAD MSE MAPE

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