Discrete probability distribution

Binomial Probability distribution:

Many experiments consist of repeated independent trials having two possible
outcome. Examples are Head and Tail, Success/failure, right/wrong, alive/dead,
good/defective, infected/not-infected. If the probability of each outcome remains the
same throughout the trials then such trials are called the Bernoulli trails and the
experiment having Bernoulli trials is called as binomial experiment.

Properties of Binomial experiment:

i. The outcome of each trial may be classified in one of the two categories,
success/failure.
ii. The probability of success denoted by P, remains constant for all trials.
iii. The successive trials are called independent.
iv. The experiment is repeated a fixed number of time, say n.
Formula:
𝑛
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥
Where,
n = number of trials
P = probability of success
q = 1 – P = probability of failure

Parameters of Binomial Distribution:

n, p

Mean and Variance:

Mean = np
Variance = npq

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Q.8.5 (b) If 60% of the voters in a large district prefer candidate A, what is the
probability that in a sample of 12 voters exactly 7 will prefer A.
Solution:
n = 12
p = 0.60
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
12
𝑃 (𝑋 = 7) = ( ) (0.60)7 (0.40)12−7
7
12
𝑃 (𝑋 = 7) = ( ) (0.60)7 (0.40)5 = 0.227
7

Q. 8.5 (c) The probability that a patient recovers from a delicate heart operation is
0.9, what is the probability that exactly 5 of the next 7 patients having this operation
survive.
Solution:
P = 0.9
q = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
n=7
𝑛
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
𝑥
7
𝑃 (𝑋 = 5) = ( ) (0.9)5 ( 0.1)7−5
5
7
𝑃 (𝑋 = 5) = ( ) (0.9)5 (0.1)2 = 0.124
5

Q. 8.5 (a) If the probability of getting caught copying someone else’s exam is 0.2,
find the probability of not getting caught in 3 attempts.
Solution:
P = 0.2 q = 0.8 n = 3 x=0
𝑛 𝑥 𝑛−𝑥
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) 𝑝 𝑞
𝑥
3
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) (0.2)0 (0.8)3−0
0
3
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = ( ) (0.2)0 (0.8)3 = 0.512
0
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Q. 8.6 (a). The incidence of an occupational disease in an industry is such that the
workmen have 20% chance of suffering from it. What is the probability out of 6
workmen?
i. Not more than 2
ii. 4 or more (will catch the disease)
Solution:
i. Not more than 2:

P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)

= (𝟔𝟎) (𝟎. 𝟐𝟎)𝟎 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟔−𝟎 + (𝟔𝟏) (𝟎. 𝟐𝟎)𝟏 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟓 + (𝟔𝟐) (𝟎. 𝟐)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟒
𝟐𝟖𝟏𝟔
=
𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓

ii. 4 or more will catch the disease:

P(X = 4) + P(X = 5) + P(X = 6)

= (𝟔𝟒) (𝟎. 𝟐𝟎)𝟒 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟔−𝟒 + (𝟔𝟓) (𝟎. 𝟐𝟎)𝟓 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟔−𝟓 + (𝟔𝟔) (𝟎. 𝟐𝟎)𝟔 (𝟎. 𝟖𝟎)𝟎
𝟓𝟑
=
𝟑𝟏𝟐𝟓

Q. 8.6 (b) If on the average rainfalls on 12 days every 30, find the probability that.
i. First 3 days of given week will be fine and remaining wet.
ii. The rain will fall on just 3 days of given week.
Solution:
P (rain) = 12⁄30
12 18
P (not rain) = 1 − =
30 30
i. ii.
18 3 12 4
=( ) ( ) Applying 𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥)𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
30 30 12 3 18 4
= 0.0055 = (73) ( ) ( )
30 30
= 0.2903

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Q.8.7 An insurance salesman sells policies to 5 men, all of identical age and good
health. According to actuarial tables, the probability that a man of this particular age
will be alive 30 years hence2⁄3. Find the probability that in 30 years.
i. All men.
ii. At least 3 men.
iii. Only 2 men.
iv. At most one man.
(Will be alive)
Solution:
i. All mean:
P = P (Alive) = 2⁄3
q = P (Death) = 1⁄3
n=5
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥
2 5 1 5−5
𝑃(𝑋 = 5) = (55) ( ) ( )
3 3
32
= (1) ( )
243
32
=
243

ii. At least 3 men:

P(X = 3) + P(X = 4) + P(X = 5)
2 1 2 1 2 1
= (53) ( )3 ( )5−3 + (54) ( )4 ( )5−4 + (55) ( )5 ( )5−5
3 3 3 3 3 3
𝟏𝟗𝟐
=
𝟐𝟒𝟑

iii. Only 2 men:

2 2 1 5−2
𝑃(𝑋 = 2) = (52) ( ) ( )
3 3
4 1
𝑃 (𝑋 = 2) = 10 × ×
9 27
40
=
243

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 iv. At most one man will be alive:
P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)
𝟐 𝟏 𝟐 𝟏
= (𝟓𝟎) ( )𝟎 ( )𝟓−𝟎 + (𝟓𝟏) ( )𝟏 ( )𝟓−𝟏
𝟑 𝟑 𝟑 𝟑
𝟏 𝟓×𝟐×𝟏
= 𝟏×𝟏× +
𝟐𝟒𝟑 𝟑×𝟖𝟏
11
=
243

Q.8.8.A multiple choice quiz has 15 questions, each with 4 possible answers of
which only one is the correct. What is the probability that sheer guess work yields
from 5 to 10 correct answers?

Solution:
n = 15
p = 1⁄4
q = 3⁄4

= 𝑃 (𝑋 = 5) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 6) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 7) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 8) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 9) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 10)
Solve:

Q.8.13. (a) In a binomial distribution, the mean and standard deviation were found
to be 36 and 4.8 respectively. Find p and n.
Solution:
Mean = 𝑛𝑝 = 36----------------- (i)
S.D = √𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 4.8
= 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 23.04------------------ (ii)
Divide (ii) by (i)
𝒏𝒑𝒒 𝟐𝟑.𝟎𝟒
=
𝒏𝒑 𝟑𝟔
𝑞 = 0.64
𝑃 = 1 − 0.64 = 0.36
Putting value of P in (i)
𝑛𝑝 = 36
𝒏 (𝟎.𝟑𝟔) 𝟑𝟔
= = 𝒏 = 𝟏𝟎𝟎 TRY Question 8.13 (b) (c)
(𝟎.𝟑𝟔) 𝟎.𝟑𝟔

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 Hypergeometric Distribution

Properties of Hypergeometric experiment:

i. The outcome of each trial may be classified in to one of two categories
success/failure.
ii. The probability of success changes on each trial.
iii. The successive trials are dependent.
iv. The experiment is repeated a fixed number of times.

Formula:
(𝑘𝑥)(𝑁−𝑘
𝑛−𝑥
)
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁
𝑛
)
Where,
N = Number of units in population.
n = Number of units in sample.
K = Number of successes in population, <n

Parameters:
N, n, K

Q.8.26 (a) Determine the probability distribution for the number of white beads
among 5 beats drawn at random from a bowl containing 4 white and 7 black beads.

Solution:
White = 4, Black = 7 5 are drawn.

X P (X)
0 (𝟒𝟎)(𝟕𝟓)
⁄ =
(𝟏𝟏
𝟓
)
1 (𝟒𝟏)(𝟕𝟒)
⁄ 𝟏𝟏 =
(𝟓)
2 (𝟒𝟐)(𝟕𝟑)
⁄ 𝟏𝟏 =
(𝟓)

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 3 (𝟒𝟑)(𝟕𝟐)
⁄ 𝟏𝟏 =
(𝟓)
4 (𝟒𝟒)(𝟕𝟏)
⁄ 𝟏𝟏 =
(𝟓)

Q.8.27 (a). A committee of size 3 is to be selected from 4 men and 2 women. Find
the probability distribution for the number of men on the committee.

Solution:
Men = 4 Women = 2 Total = 6 (3 are to be selected)

X P (X)
0 𝟒 𝟐 𝟔
( ) ( )⁄( ) = 𝑰𝑴𝑷𝑶𝑺𝑺𝑰𝑩𝑳𝑬
𝟎 𝟑 𝟑
1 𝟒 𝟐 𝟔
( ) ( )⁄( ) = 𝟒⁄𝟐𝟎
𝟏 𝟐 𝟑
2 𝟒 𝟐 𝟔
( ) ( )⁄( ) = 𝟏𝟐⁄𝟐𝟎
𝟐 𝟏 𝟑
3 𝟒 𝟐 𝟔
( ) ( )⁄( ) = 𝟒⁄𝟐𝟎
𝟑 𝟎 𝟑

Q (b)
Solution:
Tulips = 4
Daffodils = 4
Total = 8 (6 are to be selected)

P (2 daffodils and 4 Tulips are selected)

(𝟒𝟐)(𝟒𝟒) 𝟑
𝑷(𝑿 = 𝒙) = =
(𝟖𝟔) 𝟏𝟒

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Q. 8.28
Solution:

Tomatoes = 5
Corn = 5
Total = 10 (5 are selected)

i. All contains tomatoes:

= (𝟓𝟓)(𝟓𝟎)⁄(𝟏𝟎
𝟓
) = 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟒

ii. 3 or more contain tomatoes:

5 5 10 5 5 10 5 5 10
( ) ( )⁄( ) + ( ) ( )⁄( ) + ( ) ( )⁄( ) = 0.50
3 2 5 4 1 5 5 0 5

Q. 8.29 (a). Determine the probability that the income tax authorities will catch 3
income tax returns with illegitimate deductions. If it randomly selects 6 returns
among 20 income tax returns of which 8 contain illegitimate deductions.

Solution:
Illegitimate = 8
Legitimate = 12 Total = 20

N = 20
K=8
x=3
n=6
(𝑘𝑥)(𝑁−𝑘
𝑛−𝑥
)
𝑃 (𝑋 = 𝑥) =
(𝑁
𝑛
)
(𝟖𝟑)(𝟏𝟐
𝟑
) 𝟓𝟔 × 𝟐𝟐𝟎
= = = 𝟎. 𝟑𝟏𝟕𝟖
(𝟐𝟎
𝟔
) 𝟑𝟖𝟕𝟔𝟎

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Q.8.29 (b). To avoid detection at customs, a traveler has placed 6 narcotics tablets
in a bottle containing 9 vitamin pills that are of similar appearance. If the customs
official selects 3 of the tablets, what is the probability that a traveler will be arrested
for illegal possession of tablets?

Solution:

Narcotics = 6
Vitamins = 9
Total = 15

n=3

𝑃 (𝑋 = 1) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 2) + 𝑃 (𝑋 = 3)

(𝟔𝟏)(𝟗𝟐) (𝟔𝟐)(𝟗𝟏) (𝟔𝟑)(𝟗𝟎)

+ + = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟐
(𝟏𝟓
𝟑
) (𝟏𝟓
𝟑
) (𝟏𝟓
𝟑
)

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