3.

S - I - R Model
A model for disease transmission requires dividing the population into three distinct groups: the suscep-
tibles, the infected and the recovered. Individuals who have not yet gotten sick are part of the susceptible
group, S(t). Individuals with the disease are part of the infected group, I(t). Individuals who have recovered
from the disease and are assumed to non longer be susceptible (either due to immunity or death) are part
of the recovered group, R(t).
Model 6.2. The model for disease transmission is based on the number of interactions between infected
individuals and susceptible individuals. As individuals get sick, they move from the susceptible group to the
infected group. At the same time, individuals in the infected group recovered from the disease at a rate
proportional to the number of individuals who are infected. (See Figure 3)

Figure 5. Basic S - I - R Model

We can write this as a system of differential equations

dS
= −rSI r >0
dt
dI
= rSI − aI a >0
dt
dR
= aI
dt
Observe that dS/dt + dI/dt + dR/dt = 0 so that the population remains constant. The term r is the
transmission constant and it represents how virulent the disease is. The term a is the recovery constant.
This can be shown to be a = 1/d where d is the average number of days it takes to recover from the disease.
Consider the example of flu transmission at a small liberal arts college. Assume that S(0) = 1800, that
is the entire population is susceptible, and I(0) = 1, that is a single infected student comes to campus.
Assume 10 days recovery time for the flu and let r = .0008.

Observe in Figure 3 that the number of susceptibles starts high and drops as individuals get sick. In
response the number of infected individuals rise. Over time the sick individuals recover, so that the number
of infected goes down and the number of recovered rises. Eventually, the disease runs its course and everyone
has gotten sick and recovered, so that the number of recovered approaches the size of the entire population.

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 Figure 6. Graphs for flu transmission through population

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 Homework.
1. Consider a population of size 5000, in which a single infected individual is introduced. Assume
the disease lasts one week on average and the transmission constant is .00007. How long does
it take until 95% of the population is recovered? When are the most people sick? When are
people getting sick the fastest?

2. Consider a strain of the flu with average recovery time of 10 days and a transmission rate of
.0008 in introduced into a population of size 2000. Re-create the S-I-R model for this disease.
Suppose received a flu vaccine was an option. Create a new group called the vaccinated
(denoted V (t)), where on the first day of the model up to 50 individuals can be removed from
the susceptible pool and placed in the vaccinated pool. Additionally assume that the immunity
from the vaccine is not permanent, and lasts on average 100 days. This gives the equation
dV
= max{S, 50} − .01V
dt
with appropriate changes made in the equation for dS/dt. Determine how many people get sick
in this model?

3. Consider a strain of the flu with average recovery time of 10 days and a transmission rate of
.0007 in introduced into a population of size 6000. Re-create the S-I-R model for this disease.
Suppose there is an attempt to quarantine infected individuals. That is, infected individuals
are moved into a separate pool (denoted Q(t)) so that they do not interact with susceptible in-
dividuals. Assume that quarantined individuals recover at the same rate as infected individuals
left in the general population.
Create a model with a 50% quarantine rate. How does the course of the disease change?
Repeat the model with a 75% quarantine rate. How does the course of the disease change?
How high does the quarantine rate need to get before there is significant change in the behavior
of the disease moving through the population?

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 4. Malaria
Malaria is another infectious disease with a different transmission model.
Model 6.3. Humans with malaria do not directly infect other humans. Human catch malaria if they
are bitten by an infected mosquito, called a vector in Biology. Similarly, mosquitoes with malaria do not give
malaria to other mosquitoes, rather mosquitoes catch malaria by biting an infected human.
This gives a kind of S − I − R model with two interacting species. At first glance the model looks like
Figure 4.

Figure 7. Initial Malaria Model

However, the lifespan of a mosquito is so short that they do not recover from malaria. For this model to
be useful it needs to account for the multiple generations of mosquitoes. In nature the female mosquito lives
for an average of one to two weeks. As new mosquitoes are born, they are malaria free, so they are added
to the susceptible mosquito population. If we denote the susceptible mosquitoes as SM , infected mosquitoes
as IM , susceptible humans as SH , infected humans as IH and recovered humans as RH , we get the following
set of differential equations.
dSH dIH
= −rH SH IM = rH SH IM − dH IH − aIH
dt dt
dRH
= aIH
dt
dSM dIM
= b(SM + IM ) − dM SM − rM SM IH = rM SM IH − dM IM
dt dt
Here dH is the death rate for humans and dM is the death rate for mosquitoes. The term rH is the likelihood
of a bite occurring between an infected mosquito and a susceptible human and the disease being transmitted.
The term rM is the similar term for mosquitoes. The birth rate for mosquitoes is b, which is multiplied by the
total number of mosquitoes. Finally, a is the recovery rate for malaria, which is quite small. The modified
diagram is given in Figure 4.

We can set some initial values. Let SH (0) = 1000, IH (0) = 1, RH (0) = 0, SM (0) = 1000, IM (0) = 0.
Additionally set dM = .1, dH = .002, rH = .002, rM = .002, b = .1 and a = .005. This results in the
following graphs:

Figure 4 is for the first 100 days, while Figure 4 is for the first 1000 days. Observe that in the first few
days of the outbreak, the number of susceptible humans drops to near zero, while the number of infected
human rises quickly. Similarly, the number of infected mosquitoes also rises quickly and the number of
susceptible mosquitoes drops, but the number of susceptible mosquitoes does not approach zero, because

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 Figure 8. Improved Malaria Model

Figure 9. Malaria Model for 100 days

new susceptible mosquitoes are constantly being born. The number of recovered immune humans starts
to grow slowly. In the long run of the disease, the number of susceptible humans stays near zero, and the
infected humans become recovered and immune. Once the number of infected humans drops low enough, the
number of infected mosquitoes also drops until the epidemic runs its course and there are no more infected
humans or mosquitoes. Also observe that the final population of recovered humans is significantly lower that
the starting population.

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 Figure 10. Malaria Model for 1000 days

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 Homework 6.4.
1. Reproduce the malaria model where SH (0) = 1000, IH (0) = 1, RH (0) = 0, SM (0) = 100,
IM (0) = 0, dM = .1, dH = .002, rH = .002, rM = .002, b = .1 and a = .005. What is the final
population of humans left after the epidemic has run its course? How is this different from the
model in the text? What happens if SM (0) = 10?

2. How does this model change if mosquito nettings are widely used to decease the incidence of
mosquito bites? Reproduce the modified model and describe the long term behavior.

3. How does this model change if insecticides in still water are widely used to decease the birth
rate of mosquitoes? Reproduce the modified model and describe the long term behavior.

4. How does this model change if genetically modified male mosquitoes are released? The mosquitoes
are modified in such a way that any female eggs do not survive to adulthood. Reproduce the
modified model and describe the long term behavior.

5. How does this model change if genetically modified male mosquitoes are released? The mosquitoes
are modified in such a way that any female eggs do not survive to adulthood. However, there
are sill male and female mosquitoes drifting in from neighboring areas. Reproduce the modified
model and describe the long term behavior.

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