Scenario Summary

Current Values: Scenario 1 Scenario 2

Changing Cells:
Price_of_the_coffee_bean 16 15 18
Price_of_the_coffee_ground 40 36 41
Design_capacacity 15000 7500 15000
Result Cells:
NPV_EPV 146,632.83 25,496.87 29,577.68
IRR_EPV 29.185% 16.341% 14.578%
PP_EPV 5.561 7.654 9.158
PI_EPV 2.750 1.436 1.268
Notes: Current Values column represents values of changing cells at
time Scenario Summary Report was created. Changing cells for each
scenario are highlighted in gray.
 Scenario 3 Basic

14 16
35 40
7000 15000

40,832.17 146,632.83
19.916% 29.185%
6.509 5.561
1.792 2.750
INPUT DATA
Design capacacity 15000 ton
Coffee ground/Coffee bean 70%
Inventory/Revenue 15%
Receivables/Revenue 25%
Cash/Revenue 10%
Payables/Coffee bean cost 10%
Cash of year 1 20000 million dong
Inventory of year 1 32000 million dong
FIXED ASSETS
History cost of the machine 22,668.80 million dong
History cost of the factory 5000 million dong
Progress of the factory 40% 60%
Land use right 1500 million dong
PRICE
Price of the coffee bean 16 mil dong/ton
Price of the coffee ground 40 mil dong/ton
Real capacity ratio 50% 75% 100% 100%
RAISING CAPITAL
Loan 9000 million dong
Interest rate 15%
DEPRECIATION
Useful life of the machine 15 year
Useful life of the factory 30 year
LIQUIDATION PRICE
Machine 70% of residual value
Factory 70% of residual value
DIRECT COSTS
Additives 20% coffee bean cost
Direct labour cost 25% coffee bean cost
Overhead cost of year 2 200 mil dong
Growth rate of this cost 4%
INDIRECT COSTS
Indirect cost of year 2 650 mil dong
Growth rate of this cost 4%
TAXES
Corporate income tax 20%

INCOME STATEMENT

Debt payment schedule

Year 1 2 3 4
Beginning balance 9000 10350 8625 6900
Interest expenses 1350 1552.5 1293.75 1035
Interest payments 0 1552.5 1293.75 1035
Principal payments 0 1725 1725 1725
Ending balance 10350 8625 6900 5175

Year 0 1 2 3
Revenue 210000 315000
Cost of coffee bean 120000 180000
Depreciation of machine 1,511.25 1,511.25
Depreciation of factory 166.66666667 166.66666667
Interest expenses 1350 1552.5 1293.75
Additives 24000 36000
Direct labour costs 30000 45000
Overhead cost 200 208
Indirect cost 650 676
Profit from operating 0 -1350 31919.58 50144.33
Residual value of the machine
Residual value of the factory
Residual value of the land use right
Profit from disposal of fixed assets
Total accounting profit 0 -1350 31919.58 50144.33
Corporate income tax 0 0 6113.916 10028.866
Net income 0 -1350 25805.664 40115.464

Investment in fixed assets 26,168.80 3000

Loan received 9000
Interest payments 0 1552.5 1293.75
Principal payments 0 1725 1725
NWC 52000 93000 139500
Changes in NWC 52000 41000 46500
Cash inflow from disposal
NCF_EPV (Bottom-up approach) (17,168.80) (55,000.00) (15,241.42) (6,431.62)
NCF_EPV (Top-down approach) (17,168.80) (55,000.00) (15,241.42) (6,431.62)
NCF_TIP' (Bottom-up approach) (26,168.80) (55,000.00) (11,963.92) (3,412.87)
NCF_TIP' (Top-down approach) (26,168.80) (55,000.00) (11,963.92) (3,412.87)

BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS 0 1 2 3
A. Short-term assets
Cash and cash equivalents 20000 21000 31500
Account receivables 52500 78750
Inventories 32000 31500 47250
B. Long-term assets
Fixed assets
History cost 26,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80
Accumulated depreciation (1,677.92) (3,355.84)
Accumulated NCF_EPV (15,241.42) (21,673.03)
TOTAL 26168.8 81168.8 117249.464 161639.928
LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 0 1 2 3
A. Liabilites
Account payables to suppliers 12000 18000
Accruals 1350
Long-term debt 9000 9000 8625 6900
B. Equity
Initial investment 17,168.80 70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80
Accumulated retained earnings 25805.664 65921.128
TOTAL 26168.8 81168.8 117249.464 161639.928

CHECK THE BALANCE SHEET 0 0 0 0

NPV (Net present value)
Cost of equity 11.000%
NPV_EPV (Manually) 146,632.83
NPV_EPV (Function) 146,632.83
IRR (Internal rate of return)
IRR_EPV (Function) 29.185%
IRR_TIP' (Function) 28.367%
IRR_EPV (Goal seek) 29.185%
Data--> What-if analysis-->Goal seek
PP (Payback period) 0 1 2 3
NCF_EPV (17,168.80) (55,000.00) (15,241.42) (6,431.62)
Accumulated NCF_EPV (17,168.80) (72,168.80) (87,410.22) (93,841.83)
PP_EPV 5.561 years
NCF_TIP' (26,168.80) (55,000.00) (11,963.92) (3,412.87)
Accumulated NCF_TIP' (26,168.80) (81,168.80) (93,132.72) (96,545.58)
PP_TIP' 5.495 years
DPP (Discounted payback period)
PV(NCF_EPV) -17168.8 -49549.5495 -12370.27514 -4702.742187
Accumulated -17168.8 -66718.3495 -79088.62469 -83791.36688
DPP_EPV 6.620 years
PI (Profitability index)
PI_EPV 2.750
If NPV>0 --> PI>1
MIRR (Modified IRR)
IRR assumes that the cash flows from the project would be reinvested at the same rate as IRR.
MIRR assumes that the rate of return from reinvestment would be different from IRR.
Assume that the cash flows from the project would be reinvested at 5%.
Year 0 1 2 3
NCF_EPV (17,168.80) (55,000.00) (15,241.42) (6,431.62)
Rate of return from reinvestment 5.000%
Present Value of the cash outflows at 7% (17,168.80) (52,380.95) (13,824.41) (5,555.87)
Future Value of the cash inflows at 7%
TV of PV of COF (Cash outflows) (88,930.04)
TV of FV of CIF (Cash inflows) 588,491.62
It means that: 87,133.23*(1+MIRR)^10 = 609,244.76
MIRR 20.801%
If we change the rate of return from reinvestment to IRR then MIRR=IRR.
So, IRR always assumes that the cash flows of the project are invested at the rate of return which equals to IRR.

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS USING TABLE

DATA--> What if analysis--> Data table
Two variables analysis The price of coffee ground
146,632.83 36 37 38
The 14 159132.4316 193984.28337 228836.13511
price 15 83178.92898 118030.78072 152882.63246
 of 16 7225.42633 42077.27807 76929.129811
coffee bean 17 -68728.0763 -33876.22458 975.6271607
18 -144681.579 -109829.72723 -74977.87549

One variable analysis The price of coffee ground

36 37 38
146,632.83 7,225.43 42,077.28 76,929.13

BREAK-EVEN POINT ANALYSIS

(Phan tich diem hoa von)
Data--> What-if analysis --> Goal seek
BEP of NPV_EPV with respect to:
Price of coffee bean 17.930560516
Price of coffee ground 35.792681709
Maximum capacity 2699.8279556

SCENARIO ANALYSIS
(Phan tich kich ban)
Data--> What-if analysis --> Scenario manager Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Price of coffee bean 15 18 14
Price of coffee ground 36 41 35
Maximum capacity 7500 15000 7000

MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Mo phong Monte Carlo
Use softwares such as Crystal Ball
100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

5 6 7
5175 3450 1725
776.25 517.5 258.75
776.25 517.5 258.75
1725 1725 1725
3450 1725 0

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 420000 420000 420000 420000 420000 420000 420000
240000 240000 240000 240000 240000 240000 240000
1,511.25 1,511.25 1,511.25 1,511.25 1,511.25 1,511.25 1,511.25
166.66666667 166.66666667 166.666667 166.66666667 166.66666667166.66666667 166.66666667
1035 776.25 517.5 258.75 0 0 0
48000 48000 48000 48000 48000 48000 48000
60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000 60000
216.32 224.9728 233.971712 243.33058048 253.0638037 263.18635585 273.71381008
703.04 731.1616 760.408064 790.82438656 822.45736202 855.3556565 889.56988276
68367.72 68589.6956 68810.2002 69029.175033 69246.558834 69203.537988 69158.796307
9,067.52
3500
1500
-3770.256
68367.72 68589.6956 68810.2002 69029.175033 69246.558834 69203.537988 65388.540307
13673.544 13717.93912 13762.04 13805.835007 13849.311767 13840.707598 13077.708061
54694.176 54871.75648 55048.1602 55223.340026 55397.247067 55362.83039 52310.832246

1035 776.25 517.5 258.75 0 0 0

1725 1725 1725 1725 0 0 0
186000 186000 186000 186000 186000 186000 0
46500 0 0 0 0 0 -186000
10,297.26
8,147.10 54,824.68 55,001.08 55,176.26 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27
8,147.10 54,824.68 55,001.08 55,176.26 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27
10,907.10 57,325.93 57,243.58 57,160.01 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27
10,907.10 57,325.93 57,243.58 57,160.01 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27

4 5 6 7 8 9 10

42000 42000 42000 42000 42000 42000 0

105000 105000 105000 105000 105000 105000 0
63000 63000 63000 63000 63000 63000 0

29,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80 29,168.80 0

(5,033.76) (6,711.68) (8,389.60) (10,067.52) (11,745.44) (13,423.36) 0
(13,525.94) 41,298.74 96,299.82 151,476.08 208,551.25 265,592.00 519,648.27
220609.104 273755.86048 327079.021 380577.36069 435974.60775 491337.43814 519648.27039
4 5 6 7 8 9 10

24000 24000 24000 24000 24000 24000 0

5175 3450 1725 0 0 0 0

70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80 70,818.80

 120615.304 175487.06048 230535.221 285758.56069 341155.80775 396518.63814 448829.47039
220609.104 273755.86048 327079.021 380577.36069 435974.60775 491337.43814 519648.27039

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8,147.10 54,824.68 55,001.08 55,176.26 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27
(85,694.74) (30,870.06) 24,131.02 79,307.28 136,382.45 193,423.20 447,479.47

10,907.10 57,325.93 57,243.58 57,160.01 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27

(85,638.49) (28,312.56) 28,931.02 86,091.03 143,166.20 200,206.95 454,263.22

5366.7444845 32535.777067 29405.8235 26576.109723 24766.427271 22298.642309 89474.67582

-78424.62239 -45888.84532 -16483.0218 10093.087891 34859.515163 57158.157472 146632.83329

4 5 6 7 8 9 10
8,147.10 54,824.68 55,001.08 55,176.26 57,075.17 57,040.75 254,056.27

10917.887833 69971.723761 66854.1567 63873.418013 62925.371692 59892.78791 254056.27225

which equals to IRR.

39 40 41 42 43 44
263687.98685 298539.83859 333391.69 368243.54207 403095.39381 437947.24555
187734.4842 222586.33594 257438.188 292290.03942 327141.89116 361993.7429
111780.98155 146632.83329 181484.685 216336.53677 251188.38851 286040.24025
35827.478901 70679.330642 105531.182 140383.03412 175234.88586 210086.7376
-40126.02375 -5274.17 29577.6797 64429.531472 99281.383213 134133.23495

39 40 41 42 43 44
111,780.98 146,632.83 181,484.69 216,336.54 251,188.39 286,040.24

Basic
16
40
15000