Unit 6 Probability: Lesson Outline
Unit 6 Probability: Lesson Outline
Unit 6 Probability: Lesson Outline
Probability
Lesson Outline
BIG PICTURE
Students will:
• investigate side length combinations for triangles;
• determine and compare theoretical and experimental probability of events;
• identify complementary events;
• calculate the probability of a complementary event;
• make predictions based on probability;
• analyse “fairness” in games of chance;
• review addition and subtraction of integers using concrete materials and drawings.
Day Lesson Title Math Learning Goals Expectations
1 Number Triangles • Discover how three side lengths must be related to 8m70
create a triangle.
• Count number cube combinations. CGE 5a
2 Experimental and • Represent probability in multiple ways. 8m80, 8m81
Theoretical Probability • Introduce concepts of theoretical and experimental
(Part 1) probability. CGE 2c
3 Experimental and • Compare theoretical and experimental probability. 8m18, 8m20, 8m80
Theoretical Probability
(Part 2) CGE 3c, 5b
4 Theoretical and • Compare theoretical and experimental probability and 8m80
Experimental Probability sample size.
of Events • Identify complementary events. CGE 4b, 3c
(Part 3)
5 Checkpoint • Consolidate concepts of theoretical and experimental 8m80
probability.
CGE 2b
6 Revisiting Number • Consolidate an understanding of counting techniques 8m80, 8m82
Triangles required for probability problems.
• Consolidate an understanding of complementary CGE 2c, 7b
events.
7 Investigating Probability • Review addition and subtraction of integers. 8m22, 8m80, 8m81
Using Integers • Link probability to the study of integers.
CGE 5e, 7b
1. Roll three number cubes 30 times. The largest number should be side c. The other numbers
are the lengths of sides a and b.
2. Construct a triangle, using one of the methods you know, and record if the roll will form a
triangle by writing Yes or No.
Triangle
Length of Length of Length of Type of Triangle
formed?
Side a Side b Side c (to be completed Day 6)
Yes or No
Assessment
Opportunities
Minds On… Whole Class Æ Guided Review
Probability is the
Curriculum Expectations/Journal: Collect and assess math journal entry.
mathematics of
Review the meaning of the vocabulary associated with probability situations chance.
(BLM 6.2.1). Students brainstorm, write, and share their own statements,
The probability of
using correct terminology. In discussion, focus on those events which students an event is a
identify as “maybe” to decide whether these events are likely or unlikely to number between 0
occur. Students explain their reasoning. and 1; an
Action! impossible event, 0;
Pairs Æ Investigation and an event that is
Students toss one coin and state the number of possible outcomes. They toss certain, 1.
two coins and suggest possible outcomes. Theoretical
Demonstrate how a tree diagram can be used to organize the outcomes of their probability applies
tosses. Point out that the branches represent their choices. only to situations
that can be
Each pair of students creates a tree diagram for tossing three coins. As an modelled by
example, when tossing three coins, we wish to see 1 head and 2 tails. What is mathematically fair
the probability of this occurring? objects.
Explain that a preference is considered to be a favourable outcome; and the The coin toss
probability of that event is the ratio of the number of favourable outcomes to provides
the total number of possible experimental
results.
outcomes.
Number of favourable outcomes Experimental
P= probability is
Number of possible outcomes based on the
Each pair tosses two coins twenty results of an
experiment and are
times (20 is the sample size) and relative
records each outcome. frequencies, giving
an estimate of the
They compare their experimental likelihood that a
results to the theoretical results. particular event will
Discuss how changing sample size occur.
(to more or fewer than 20) would Experimental
affect experimental results. probabilities are
# TH or HT often close to the
Experimental results: #TT
20
#HH
20 20
compared to theoretical results theoretical
probabilities
P (TT) = 1
P (one of each) = 2
P (HH) = 1 especially if the
4 4 4 sample size is
large.
Students prepare a presentation of their findings.
Consolidate
Debrief Whole Class Æ Presentation
One student from each pair presents their results for tossing two coins twenty
times. Combine whole class data to share results with the larger sample size.
Discuss the effect of sample size on experimental outcomes. Discuss what a
probability of 0 and a probability of 1 would mean in the context of coin
tosses.
Curriculum Expectations/Presentations/Class Response: Assess
communication skills during the student presentation.
Home Activity or Further Classroom Consolidation
Reflection Complete worksheet 6.2.2.
Concept Practice
Skill Drill Devise your own simulations using spinners, or a combination of coins and
spinners, etc.
Part A
Read each statement carefully. Choose from the terms to describe each event and record your
answer in the space provided:
• certain or sure
• impossible
• likely or probable
• unlikely or improbable
• maybe
• uncertain or unsure
Part B
Consider pairs of statements and determine which of them would be:
• equally likely
• equally unlikely
1. Keisha’s basketball team must decide on a new uniform. The team has a choice of black
shorts or gold shorts and a black, white, or gold shirt.
Use a tree diagram to show the team’s uniform choices.
2. Brit goes out for lunch to the local submarine sandwich shop. He can choose white or whole
wheat bread, and a filling of turkey, ham, veggies, roast beef, or salami.
Use a tree diagram to show all Brit’s possible sandwich choices.
3. The faces of a cube are labelled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. The cube is rolled once.
List the favourable outcomes for each.
a) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be odd?
b) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be greater than 5?
c) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be a multiple of 3?
d) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be less than 1?
e) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be a factor of 36?
f) What is the probability that the number on the top of the cube will be a multiple of 2
and 3?
Question 1
3 1
a) The probability the uniform will have black shorts is or .
6 2
4 2
b) The probability the shirt will not be gold is or .
6 3
2 1
c) The probability the uniform will have the same-coloured shorts and shirt is or .
6 3
4 2
d) The probability the uniform will have different-coloured shorts and shirt is or .
6 3
Question 2
a) Brit has the choice of 2 breads and 5 fillings. So, he has the choice of 2 x 5 = 10
sandwiches. This can be shown using a tree diagram that first has 2 branches (one for each
of the bread types) and then 5 branches at the end of the first branches (one for each of the
fillings). This will give 10 ends to the tree.
b) You can add 3 branches at the end of each branch to indicate each of 3 topping choices.
This gives 30 possible outcomes.
c) Only one of these outcomes is a whole-wheat turkey sandwich topped with tomatoes. So the
1
probability that he chooses this sandwich is . It is only one of 30 possible sandwiches.
30
2 1
d) The probability of choosing any veggie sub topped with cheese is or . The student
30 15
must remember to use both the whole wheat and white bread possibility in this answer.
4 2
e) The probability of choosing a meat sub topped with lettuce on white bread is or .
30 15
The student must remember to use all possible meat selections for this answer.
8 4
f) The probability of choosing a meat sub topped with lettuce is or . The student must
30 15
remember to use all possible meat selections in this answer, and both types of bun.
Question 3
3 1
a) There are 3 odd numbers, so the probability is or .
6 2
1
b) There is only one number greater than 5, so the probability is .
6
2 1
c) There are two multiples of 3, i.e., 3 and 6, so the probability is or .
6 3
d) There is no number less than one, so the probability is zero.
5
e) There are 5 numbers that are factors of 36, i.e., 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6, so the probability is
6
1
f) There is only one number that is a multiple of both 2 and 3, i.e., 6, so the probability is .
6
Remind students
Consolidate Whole Class Æ Discussion that experimental
Debrief probabilities would
Learning Skills (Class Participation)/Question & Answer/Checklist: be closer to the
Discuss students’ answers to questions 3 and 4 (BLM 6.3.1). theoretical
probabilities if the
Relate the results to theoretical and experimental probability. Students refer to sample size were
their recording chart. Which columns represent these probabilities? larger.
Theoretical
Experimental Probability = number of favourable occurences
total number of occurences
probability = the
predicted
probability of an
event based on
Theoretical Probability = number of favourable outcomes
number of possible outcomes
mathematics
Experimental
Collect experimental data from the whole class to show the results for probability = the
increased sample size. probability of an
Ask: How can the two column totals indicate if calculation errors have been event based on
actual trials from
made? (BLM 6.3.2) experiments
1. Predict how many rolls it will take you to cover each space on the board with at least one
marker.
Our prediction is _________________________.
2. Working in pairs, one player rolls the cubes and the other player places a marker on the
corresponding board space for that roll. If a combination is rolled that has already been
recorded on the board, place another marker on top of the marker(s) that are already on that
space.
Colour: ______
1 2 3 4 5 6
Colour:
3
______
3. When every space has at least one marker, count the markers to find your total number of
rolls.
Our total number of rolls ________________________.
4. Compare this total to your prediction. If they are different, explain why you think this
happened.
Game 1
Colour: ______
1 2 3 4 5 6
Colour:
3
______
Game 2
Colour: ______
1 2 3 4 5 6
Colour:
3
______
Game 2
Possible total of Number of rolls Total number of Experimental Experimental
two coloured that did yield this rolls in the Fraction of total Percent of total
number cubes total experiment number of rolls number of rolls
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Column totals
Assessment
Opportunities
Minds On… Whole Class Æ Reflection
Students may refer
Recall the concepts of theoretical and experimental probability discussed on
to the results of
Day 3. their coin toss
simulation.
A similar
exploration can be
completed with a
spinner.
With a partner, play a game involving 5 tiles in a bag, e.g., two red, two green, one yellow.
Take two tiles from the bag during your turn.
1. Record your wins and losses on the tally chart. Continue this until you have played a total of
20 times.
Totals
2. Use your results to find the experimental probability of winning. (Remember that probability
is the number of wins divided by the total number of times the game was played.)
4. Find the theoretical probability of winning. Use a tree diagram or a list to show all possible
draws.
5. Compare the probability of winning to the probability of not winning, using both experimental
and theoretical results. What do you notice?
6. Write a paragraph to compare the theoretical probability you just calculated to the
experimental probability you found earlier. Are these results different or the same?
Why do you think they are the same/different?
Assessment
Opportunities
Minds On… Whole Class Æ Connecting
Invite students to ask any questions about the work from the previous class.
Review the key concepts.
1. Tria had one each of five different-shaped number solids having 4, 6, 8, 12, and 20 sides.
She rolled two at a time and found probabilities for the sum of the numbers that came up.
She recorded the probabilities in the first column of the table. When it came time to fill in the
second column, she had forgotten which number solids she had used. Figure out which
number solids she must have used and explain your thinking. The first one has been done.
She found that Using these number solids
Probability of a 6 The total number of possible combinations was 48.
5 Both the 4 and 12, and the 6 and 8 combinations would have given
was 48 possible combinations.
48
If a 4-sided and a 12-sided number solid were rolled and the sum
was 6, the possible combinations were 1 and 5, 2 and 4, 3 and 3,
and 4 and 2 on the respective number solids. That gives 4 rolls
4 2 5
totalling 6 and a probability of rolling a 6 as or , not .
48 24 48
If a 6-sided and an 8-sided number solid were rolled and the sum
was 6, the possible combinations were 1 and 5, 2 and 4, 3 and 3, 4
and 2, and 5 and 1 on the respective number solids. That gives 5
5
rolls totalling 6 and a probability of rolling a 6 as .
48
Therefore, Tria must have used the 6- and 8-sided number solids.
Probability of a 3
2 1
is or
80 40
Probability of a 3
1
is
80
Probability of
a 4 is less than
probability of
a5
2. Henry, Toshi, Lizette, Anna, and Vance were all scheduled to give oral reports in their
history class on Tuesday. However, when the class met, the teacher announced that only
two people would give their presentations that day. To determine which two, all of their
names were placed in a hat and two names were drawn out. What is the probability that
Henry and Anna were the names picked to give presentations? Show how you arrived at
your conclusion.
3. Claire has two bags of coloured cubes, one marked A and the other marked B. In bag A,
there are 3 yellow and 4 green cubes. In bag B, there are 2 blue and 5 red cubes. Without
looking, Claire picks one cube from bag A and then one cube from bag B. Answer the
questions below based on this information. Assume that after each part all cubes are
replaced in their appropriate bag.
8
a) What is the question, if the answer is ?
49
3
c) What is the question, if the answer is ?
7
1.
Probability of The 4 and 20 combination gives 80 possible outcomes. A sum of 3 results from
2 rolling 1 and 2, or 2 and 1. That gives 2 rolls totalling 3 and a probability of
a 3 is or
80 2 1
rolling a 3 as or . Therefore, Tria must have used the 4- and 20-sided
1 80 40
number solids.
40
Probability of The sum of 3 results from rolling 1 and 2, or 2 and 1. For these 2 rolls to yield a
1 1 2
a 3 is probability of , we must have had probability. Only the combination of 8
80 80 160
and 20 gives 160 possibilities. Therefore, Tria must have used the 8- and 20-
sided number solids.
Probability of A sum of 4 results from rolling 1 and 3, 2 and 2, or 3 and 1. A sum of 5 results
a 4 is less from rolling 1 and 4, 2 and 3, 3 and 2, or 4 and 1. All of these rolls are possible
than using any of the number solids. Since the sum of 4 can occur in fewer ways
probability of then a sum of 5 for any pair of number solids, probability of a 4 is less than
a5 probability of a 5 for any pair of these number solids. Therefore, Tria cannot tell
from this information which number solids she used.
There are 20 outcomes in the tree diagram and the two circled outcomes represent Henry and
2 1
Anna being picked. Therefore the probability of Henry and Anna being picked is =
20 10
OR
Students may reason that there are 5 choices for the first pick and 4 left for the second so there
are 5 × 4 or 20 possible outcomes. However, only 2 of the outcomes are favourable: HA or AH.
2 1
Therefore the probability of Henry and Anna being picked = = .
20 10
3. a) Each of the 7 cubes from A could be picked along with each of the 7 cubes from B. This
gives 7 × 7 = 49 possibilities in all. If 8 of these 49 outcomes are favourable, then we
want the 4 green cubes from A with the 2 blue cubes from B. Therefore, the question is:
What is the probability of picking 1 green and 1 blue cube?
b) If the probability is 0, the outcome is impossible. There are many possible answers to
this question, e.g., What is the probability of picking a purple cube? What is the
probability of picking a yellow and a green cube?
c) Since the answer is and there are 49 possible outcomes, I’ll think of as.
To get 21 favourable outcomes, I could pick yellow from A and any colour from B in
3 × 7 = 21 ways. Therefore, the question could be: What is the probability of picking 1
yellow cube?
Assessment
Opportunities
Minds On… Whole Class Æ Connecting
For two numbers
Recall the concepts from Day 1. How must three side lengths be related to form a
the same, there are
triangle? 6 choices for the
Review types of triangles – equilateral, isosceles, scalene. Could you consider 1, repeated number
and 5 choices for
1, and 2, or 3, 4, and 7 to be the sides of a triangle? Why or why not? the different
Does the order of the numbers matter in this context? number, making
6 × 5 = 30 ways.
Individual Æ Applying Knowledge
Using BLM 6.1.1, students complete column entitled Type of Triangle and Of these 30 ways,
16 generate
explain their decision. isosceles triangles
and 14 generate
impossible triangles.
Each of the 16
Action! Whole Class Æ Investigation combinations could
Students consider the following question and record their answers: How many be rolled in three
outcomes are possible when rolling three number cubes? Explain. ways, making 48
ways to roll.
Identify students who can demonstrate that: 6 × 6 × 6 = 216 is the number of
possibilities if the order of the numbers matters and students who can show that For all three
there are: (6 ways to get all 3 numbers the same) + (30 ways to get 2 numbers the numbers different
same) + (120 ways to get all 3 numbers different) = 156 (if the order of the there are
6 × 5 × 4 = 120
numbers in this context does not matter but some rolls will lead to the same possible
triangle). combinations.
1. What is the total number of possible outcomes when rolling three number cubes? Explain.
2. Fill in the chart using the data from the Home Activity on Day 1.
Number of rolls that resulted
Type of triangle
in this type of triangle
Equilateral
Isosceles
Scalene
No triangle
3. a) When rolling three number cubes to determine the three possible side lengths for a
triangle, what is the theoretical probability of forming:
i) an equilateral triangle?
iv) no triangle?
b) When rolling three number cubes, what is the theoretical probability of being able to form
a triangle of any type?
c) When rolling three number cubes, what is the theoretical probability of not being able to
form a triangle of any type? Calculate this answer two ways.
Assessment
Opportunities
Minds On… Whole Class Æ Connecting
Use integer tiles
Calculate experimental probabilities for more trials using all student data from
cut out of coloured
the Day 6 Home Activity. [Generally, the larger the number of trials, the closer transparencies to
experimental probability should approach theoretical probability.] visually reinforce
Review the representation of integers, using integer tiles. Identify opposites, concepts.
several models of zero, and several models of +2.
Students model adding and subtracting integers, using integer tiles. Students should
be able to use the
For (+3) + (−2) show zero principle
where simple
Using the zero principle, the result is +1. matching and
For (−2) – (−5) show and ask if it is possible to take away −5. Ask for removing “zeros” is
required. They
a different model of –2 that would make it possible to take away −5. may require extra
practice with
situations involving
addition of one or
Once –5 is removed, the result of +3 is obvious. more zeros to
Ask: facilitate an
operation.
• What is the result of adding an integer and its opposite?
• Does the order matter when we add integers? When we subtract? Students can use
the integer tiles to
Model a series of questions: (+2) – (+5) and (+2) + (−5); (−1) – (+4) and assist in finding
(−1) + (−4) to show that subtracting an integer is like adding the opposite sums.
integer.
Ask: What possible addition question and answer are modelled by…?
e.g.,
[giving (+ 1) + (−2) = −1]
[giving (−1) – (−2) = +1]
What subtraction question and answer are modelled by…?
Part A
Use two different-coloured number cubes. Choose one cube to be negative numbers and the
other to be positive numbers. Record all possible results in the table.
1. Roll the number cubes and add the two numbers together. Note the sum in the chart.
2. Repeat rolling the number cubes and finding the sum until you have a variety of sums.
3. Complete the chart to record all 36 possible outcomes.
Colour: ______
1 2 3 4 5 6
–1
–2
Colour:
–3
______
–4
–5
–6
Part B
1. Roll the number cubes 25 times and record each outcome of the sum in the tally column of
the table.
2. Total the tallies to find the frequency of the various sums.
3. What sum did you get the most? Why do you think this is so?
4. What sum did you get the least? Why do you think that is?
5. The experimental probability of an event happening is given by the fraction
For example, if you rolled the number cubes 25 times, and you got a sum of 3 five times,
5 1
then the experimental probability of getting a sum of 3 is = .
25 5
Find the experimental probability of each of the sums and enter these experimental
probabilities in the table.
6. Fill in the 5th column of the table with all of the outcomes that you could roll the cubes to
yield each sum. For example, a sum of 4 could be 6 and −2, or 5, and −1.
7. Fill in the 6th column with the number of outcomes in the 5th column.
8. The theoretical probability of an event is given by the ratio
number of possible ways of the event happened
total possible outcomes
For example, there are two possible ways of getting a sum of 4 (see the first chart you
completed). There are a total of 36 possible outcomes of the number cubes, so the
2 1
theoretical probability of getting a sum of 4 is = .
36 18
Find the theoretical probability of rolling each of the possible sums. Enter your results in the
last column of the table.
Experimental Theoretical
Number of
Possible
Sum Tally Frequency Probability Possible Probability
Outcomes
Outcomes
–5
–4
–3
–2
–1
2
4 6, –2; 5, –1 2
36
5
Totals
Part C
1. What is the theoretical probability of:
a) rolling a negative sum?
2. What extra considerations would be needed if the roll of the number cubes were subtracted
rather than added?
3. What other words do we use to indicate positive and negative? Suggest a variety of
situations where these words might be used.
4. How might addition and subtraction of integers be shown using a number line?