Final Report
Final Report
Final Report
I would like to extend my sincere thanks to Mr. Raja S. Nalawade for facilitating
this project for me and for providing his vital inputs and guidance throughout the
duration of the project. Without his help and support this project wouldn‘t have
reached its logical conclusion.
I would also like to thank Dr. M. B. Shah, our Director for continuously helping and
motivating us to do well throughout the course.
I would like to thank the office staff and other people in the institute for their
valuable support and co-operation.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
If cash is the lifeblood of any organization, the treasury is the heart where all the
cash is circulated. The primary functions of treasury department in any bank are:-
• Manage the market risk the bank faces. This could mean market risk on account
of interest rate or market risk on account of foreign exchange.
• Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of the bank. As per the RBI Act, banks in
India are expected to maintain 6.00% of their Net Demand and Time Liabilities
(NDTL) as cash reserve with Reserve Bank of India.
• Maintain the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) of the bank. As per the Banking
Regulation Act, banks in India are expected to maintain 24% of their Net
Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) in notified Government of India bonds.
• Servicing the customer requirements with respect to money market and forex
products.
The project discusses on various risk management instruments like interest rate
swaps and forward rate agreement etc. It discusses the importance of asset liability
management and ways of maintaining a balance between them. It throws some
light on Interest rate management, liquidity management, Foreign exchange
management all of which are the important elements of treasury management. It
provides us guidelines regarding the investment and borrowing decisions to be
taken by banks as and when needed. Last but not the least it gives a brief
explanation on securitization.
Banks may properly anticipate that, within appropriate risk exposure criteria, their
treasury-management activities will make a contribution towards their profits or
surpluses. On the other hand, the essentially more cautious nature of many
organizations, particularly those in the public services, will lead to the focus of
treasury management falling largely on the effective control of risk. Whatever the
organization, the achievement of optimum performance consistent with its risk
exposure criteria in its treasury management activities is an important indicator of
effective corporate management.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 i. CRR/SLR Management
9 Securitization 62
10 Conclusion 63
11 Bibliography 64
1 1. Introduction
In general terms and from the perspective of commercial banking, treasury refers to
the fund and revenue at the possession of the bank and day-to-day management of
the same. Idle funds are usually source of loss, real or opportune, and, thereby need
to be managed, invested, and deployed with intent to improve profitability. There is
no profit or reward without attendant risk. Thus treasury operations seek to
maximize profit and earning by investing available funds at an acceptable level of
risks. Returns and risks both need to be managed. Interest income from
investments has overtaken interest income from loans/advances. The special
feature of such bloated portfolio is that more than 85% of it is invested in
government securities.
• The income flow from investment assets is real compared to that of loan-
assets, as the latter is sizably a book-entry.
2. Functions of Treasury management in
banks
• Asset and liability management, where liquidity, interest rate structures and
sensitivity, together with future maturity profiles, are the major considerations in
addition to managing day-to-day funding requirements.
• Fraud protection.
• Control of investments.
3. Elements of Treasury Management
From time to time, RBI prescribes a CRR, or the minimum amount of cash that
banks have to maintain with it (current 6.0%). The CRR is fixed as a percentage of
total deposits. RBI uses CRR as a tool to suck liquidity from the market. A 50 basis
point increase in CRR results in reduction of Rs. 20000 crore (approx.) from banks.
The apex bank said it would pay interest to banks on the eligible balance of CRR at
the rate of 3.5 per cent for the period between June 24 and December 8, 2006, and
at 2 per cent for the period between December 9, 2006, and February 16, 2007.For
the period beginning February 17, 2007, until further notice, the RBI will pay an
interest of one per cent. Total deposits mobilized by banking system as at the end
of March 31, 2006 is Rs. 21, 94,900 crores.
SLR reduction is not so relevant in the present context for two reasons: One, as a
part of the reforms process, the government has begun borrowing at market-related
rates. Therefore, banks get better interest rates compared with the earlier days for
their statutory investments in Government securities. Second, banks are still the
main source of funds for the government which means despite a lower SLR
requirement, banks‘investment in government securities will go up as government
borrowing rises. As a result, bank investment in gilts continues to be higher than 30
per cent despite RBI bringing down the minimum SLR to 24 per cent.
Therefore, for the purpose of determining the interest rates, it is not the SLR
requirement that is important but the size of the government-borrowing program.
As government borrowing increases, interest rates, too, look up. Besides, gilts also
provide another tool for RBI to manage interest rates. RBI conducts open market
operations by offering to buy or sell gilts. If it feels interest rates are too high, it
may bring them down by offering to buy securities at a lower yield than what is
available in the market.
The Government borrows funds through the issue of long term-dated securities, the
lowest risk category instruments in the economy. These securities are issued
through auctions conducted by RBI, where the central bank decides the coupon or
discount rate based on the response received. Most of these securities are issued as
fixed interest bearing securities, though the government sometimes issues zero
coupon instruments and floating rate securities also. In one of its first moves to
deregulate interest rates in the economy, RBI adopted the market driven auction
method in FY 1991-92. Since then, the interest in government securities has gone
up tremendously and trading in these securities has been quite active. They are not
generally in the form of securities but in the form of entries in RBI's Subsidiary
General Ledger (SGL).
The investors in government securities are mainly banks, FIs, insurance companies,
provident funds and trusts. These investors are required to hold a certain part of
their investments or liabilities in government paper. Foreign institutional investors
can also invest in these securities up to 100% of funds-in case of dedicated debt
funds and 49% in case of equity funds.
Till recently, a few of the domestic players used to trade in these securities with a
majority investing in these instruments for the full term. This has been changing of
late, with a good number of banks setting up active treasuries to trade in these
securities. Perhaps the most liquid of the long term instruments, liquidity in gilts is
also aided by the primary dealer network set up by RBI and RBI's own open market
operations.
Features:
RBI, as an agent of the Government, manages and services these securities through
its Public Debt Offices (PDO) located at various places.
At present, there are dated securities with a tenor up to 20 years in the market.
These securities are open to all types of investors including individuals and there is
an active secondary market. These securities are eligible for SLR requirements.
These securities are revocable.
The bank engages into a number of instruments that are available in the Indian
money market for the purpose of enhancing liquidity as well as profitability. Some of
these instruments are as follows:
Call/Notice money is an amount borrowed or lent on demand for a very short period.
If the period is more than one day and up to 14 days it is called 'Notice money'
otherwise the amount is known as Call money'. Intervening holidays and/or Sundays
are excluded for this purpose. No collateral security is required to cover these
transactions.
Features:
• The call market enables the banks and institutions to even out their day-to-day
deficits and surpluses of money.
• Commercial banks, Co-operative Banks and primary dealers are allowed to
borrow and lend in this market for adjusting their cash reserve requirements.
• Specified All-India Financial Institutions, Mutual Funds and certain specified
entities are allowed to access Call/Notice money only as lenders.
• It is a completely inter-bank market hence non-bank entities are not allowed
access to this market.
• Interest rates in the call and notice money markets are market determined.
• In view of the short tenure of such transactions, both the borrowers and the
lenders are required to have current accounts with the Reserve Bank of India.
• It serves as an outlet for deploying funds on short-term basis to the lenders
having steady inflow of funds.
Features:
Interbank market for deposits of maturity beyond 14 days and up to three months is
referred to as the term money market. The specified entities are not allowed to lend
beyond 14 days. The market in this segment is presently not very deep. The
declining spread in lending operations, the volatility in the call money market with
accompanying risks in running asset/liability mismatches, the growing desire for
fixed interest rate borrowing by corporate, the move towards fuller integration
between forex and money markets, etc. are all the driving forces for the
development of the term money market. These, coupled with the proposals for
Nationalization of reserve requirements and stringent guidelines by
regulators/managements of institutions, in the asset/liability and interest rate risk
management, should stimulate the evolution of term money market sooner than
later. The DFHI, as a major player in the market, is putting in all efforts to activate
this market
The development of the term money market is inevitable due to the following
reasons
D. Certificates of Deposits
After treasury bills, the next lowest risk category investment option is the certificate
of deposit (CD) issued by banks and FIs.
Features:
• Allowed in 1989, CDs were one of RBI's measures to deregulate the cost of
funds for banks and FIs.
• A CD is a negotiable promissory note, secure and short term (up to a year) in
nature. It is issued at a discount to the face value, the discount rate being
negotiated between the issuer and the investor. Though RBI allows CDs up to
one-year maturity, the maturity most quoted in the market is for 90 days.
• The secondary market for this instrument does not have much depth but the
instrument itself is highly secure.
• CDs are issued by banks and FIs mainly to augment funds by attracting
deposits from corporate, high net worth individuals, trusts, etc. the issue of CDs
reached a high in the last two years as banks faced with reducing deposit base
secured funds by these means.
• The foreign and private banks, especially, which do not have large branch
networks and hence lower deposit base use this instrument to raise funds.
• The rates on these deposits are determined by various factors. Low call rates
would mean higher liquidity in the market. Also the interest rate on one-year
bank deposits acts as a lower barrier for the rates in the market.
Highly rated corporate borrowers, primary dealers (PDs) and satellite dealers (SDs)
and all-India financial institutions (FIs) which have been permitted to raise resources
through money market instruments under the umbrella limit fixed by Reserve Bank
of India are eligible to issue CP.
(a) the tangible net worth of the company, as per the latest audited balance sheet,
is not less than Rs. 4 crore;
(b) the working capital (fund-based) limit of the company from the banking system
is not less than Rs.4 crore and
(c) the borrower account of the company is classified as a Standard Asset by the
financing bank/s.
Rating Requirement
All eligible participants should obtain the credit rating for issuance of Commercial
Paper, from either the Credit Rating Information Services of India Ltd. (CRISIL) or the
Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency of India Ltd. (ICRA) or the Credit
Analysis and Research Ltd. (CARE) or the Duff & Phelps Credit Rating India Pvt. Ltd.
(DCR India) or such other credit rating agency as may be specified by the Reserve
Bank of India from time to time, for the purpose. The minimum credit rating shall be
P-2 of CRISIL or such equivalent rating by other agencies. Further, the participants
shall ensure at the time of issuance of CP that the rating so obtained is current and
has not fallen due for review.
Maturity
Denominations
Investment in CP
Mode of Issuance
CP can be issued only in a dematerialized form through any of the depositories
approved by and registered with SEBI. CP can be held only in dematerialized form.
CP will be issued at a discount to face value as may be determined by the issuer.
Banks and All-India financial institutions are prohibited from underwriting or co-
accepting issues of Commercial Paper.
Payment of CP
On maturity of CP, the holder of the CP will have to get it redeemed through the
depository and receive payment from the IPA.
It is a transaction in which two parties agree to sell and repurchase the same
security. Under such an agreement the seller sells specified securities with an
agreement to repurchase the same at a mutually decided future date and a price.
Similarly, the buyer purchases the securities with an agreement to resell the same
to the seller on an agreed date in future at a predetermined price. Such a
transaction is called a Repo when viewed from the prospective of the seller of
securities (the party acquiring fund) and Reverse Repo when described from the
point of view of the supplier of funds. Thus, whether a given agreement is termed
as Repo or a Reverse Repo depends on which party initiated the transaction.
Features:
Uses of Repo
An SLR surplus and CRR deficit bank can use the Repo deals as a convenient way
of adjusting SLR/CRR positions simultaneously.
RBI uses Repo and Reverse repo as instruments for liquidity adjustment in the
system.
G. Commercial Bills
Bills of exchange are negotiable instruments drawn by the seller (drawer) of the
goods on the buyer (drawee) of the goods for the value of the goods delivered.
These bills are called trade bills. These trade bills are called commercial bills when
they are accepted by commercial banks. If the bill is payable at a future date and
the seller needs money during the currency of the bill then he may approach his
bank for discounting the bill. The maturity proceeds or face value of discounted bill,
from the drawee, will be received by the bank. If the bank needs fund during the
currency of the bill then it can rediscount the bill already discounted by it in the
commercial bill rediscount market at the market related discount rate.
The RBI introduced the Bills Market scheme (BMS) in 1952 and the scheme was
later modified into New Bills Market scheme (NBMS) in 1970. Under the scheme,
commercial banks can rediscount the bills, which were originally discounted by
them, with approved institutions (viz., Commercial Banks, Development Financial
Institutions, Mutual Funds, Primary Dealer, etc.).
Significance of ALM
1. Volatility
The recent times have witnessed an increasing number of free economies, with
more and more nations globalizing their operations. Closely regulated markets are
paving the way for market-driven economies. Such deregulations have changed the
dynamics of the financial markets. The vagaries of such free economic environment
are reflected in the interest rate structures, money supply and the overall credit
position of the market, the exchange rates and price levels. For a business which
involves trading and money, rate fluctuations invariably affect the market value,
yields / cost of the assets/liabilities which further affect the market value of the
bank and its Net Interest Income (NII). Tackling this situation would have been a
very easy task, in a setup where the interest rate movements are known with
accuracy and where the volatility in the exchange rates was considerably lower.
2. Product Innovation:
The second reason for the growing importance of ALM is the rapid innovations
taking place in the financial products of the bank. Whatever may be the features of
the products, most of them have an impact on the risk profile of the bank thereby
enhancing the need for ALM. Consider the flexi deposit facility the banks are now
offering for their term deposits. Earlier, if the depositor who has a term deposit of
Rs. 1 lakh was in need of funds, say Rs. 25000 before the date of maturity of the
term deposit, then the depositor would go for a premature withdrawal of the term
deposit or raise a loan. In order to discourage this, banks charge a penalty on the
entire amount for premature withdrawal. This served as a disincentive for
premature withdrawals and also reduced the risk for the bank.
However, with the introduction of flexi deposit facility, the deposit of Rs. 1, 00,000
will be segregate into deposits of smaller denominations, say 100 deposits of 1,000
each. This enables the investor to withdraw the required amount before the
maturity since the burden of penalty is limited. However, it will also enhance the
risk of the bank. With the reduction in the penalty amount, the depositor would
make a demand for the premature withdrawal at any time.
To reduce the impact of the asset-liability mismatch that arises due to these early
withdrawals of funds, the bank will have to raise a liability to match the outflow. In
such case, the bank will be faced with a liquidity risk when there is a sudden outflow
of funds as well as interest rate risk since it may have to raise a liability at a higher
cost.
3. Regulatory Environment
In order to enable the banks to cope up with the changing environment that has
resulted due to integration of the domestic markets with the international markets,
the regulatory bodies of various financial markets have initiated a number of
measures. These measures were taken with an objective to prevent major losses
that may arise due to the market vagaries. One step in this direction was the
increased focus on the management of the banks‘ assets and liabilities. At the
international level, the Bank of International Settlement (BIS) provides a framework
for the banks to tackle the market risk that may arise due to rate fluctuations and
excessive credit risk.
Purpose of ALM
At the micro-level, the objective functions of the ALM are two-fold. It aims at
profitability through price matching while ensuring liquidity by means of maturity
matching.
Price matching basically aims to maintain spreads by ensuring that the deployment
of liabilities will be at a rate higher than the costs.
The following tables explain the process involved in price matching and maturity
matching.
Price Matching
Maturity Matching
Table I shows how proper deployment of liabilities can ensure positive spreads.
These spreads can however, be attained if the interest rate movements are known
with accuracy, and the forecasts made fall close to actual movements. This
approach further ignores maturity mismatches, which may to a certain extent affect
the expected results.
Similarly, table II helps in determining the gap that exists by using forecasted cash
flows, both inflows and outflows. It further forecasts the surplus deficit fund position
and thereby enables better financing plan. Maturity matching, however, is possible
if the financial requirements are forecasted accurately. This approach does not
integrate fully with the price-matching concept. Though these two approaches i.e.
price matching and maturity matching effectively reduce risks the methodology
adopted may not be feasible in reality.
The sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations will arise due to the mixed affect of a
host of other risks that comprise the interest rate risk. These risks when segregated
fall into the following categories.
During a given period there is possibility for restructuring the interest rate levels
either due to the market conditions or due to regulatory intervention. This
phenomenon will, in the long run, affect decisions regarding the type and the mix of
assets/liabilities to be maintained and their maturing periods.
The present interest rate restructuring taking place in the Indian markets is a very
good example of this aspect. The Reserve Bank of India which is the apex body
regulating the Indian monetary system, constantly increase or decrease Cash
Reserve Ratio for banks in a phased manner. Every time the CRR is increased, there
is a shortage in the liquidity which further results in hardening of the interest rate
levels. A 1.5% increase in the CRR from 5% to 6.5 % in the Busy Season Credit
Policy announced since 2006 was immediately followed by a rise in the PLR/interest
rates of Banks and FI‘s. The risk that arises due to this hike can be understood from
the fact that the revised rates of interest will be applicable to all the new deposits,
which will increase the marginal costs of funds. However, the affect will be seen on
all the existing assets. Consequently the loss of interest income on assets is likely to
be higher than the increase in the interest cost of deposits leading to lower spreads.
2. Volatility Risk
In additions to the long run implications of the interest rate changes, there are short
term fluctuations which are to be considered in deciding on the mix of assets and
liabilities, the pricing policies and thereby the business volumes. However, the risk
will acquire serious proportions in a highly volatile market when the impact will be
felt on the cash flows and profits. The 1994 volatility witnessed in the Indian call
money market explains the presence and the impact of volatility risk. The interest
rate in the call money market, which generally hovered around 5-7 %, zoomed to
7.5% during March 2007. While some banks defaulted in the maintenance of CRR,
and corporate tax outflow made banks borrow funds at high rates, which had
substantially reduced their profits. Thus, it can be seen that the affect of
fluctuations in the short term have a greater impact since the adjustment period is
very short.
3. Prepayment Risk
The fluctuations in the interest rate may sometimes lead to prepayment of loans.
For instance, in a situation where the interest rate is declining, any cash inflows that
arise due to prepayment of loans will have to be redeployed at a lower rate
invariably resulting in lowered yields.
4. Call/Put Risk
Sometimes when the funds are raised by the issue of bonds/securities, it may
include call/put options. A call option is exercised by an issuer to redeem the bonds
before maturity, while the put option is exercised by the investor to seek
redemption before maturity. These two options expose to a risk when the interest
rate fluctuate. A call option is generally exercised in a declining interest rate
scenario. This will affect the bank if it invests in such bonds since the intermediate
cash inflows will have to be reinvested at a lower rate. Similarly, when the investor
exercises the put option in an increasing interest rate scenario, the banks, which
issue the bonds, will have to face greater replacement costs.
5. Reinvestment Risk
The risk can be associated to the intermediate cash flows arising due to the
payment of interest, installments on loans etc. These intermediate cash flows
arising from a security/loan are usually reinvested and the income from such
reinvestments will depend on the prevailing rate of interest at the time of
reinvestment and the reinvestment strategy. Due to the volatility in the interest
rates, these intermediate cash flows when received may have to be reinvested at a
lower rates resulting in lower yields. This variability in the returns from the
reinvestments due to changes in the interest rates is called the reinvestment risk.
6. Basis Risk
When the cost of liabilities and the yields of assets are linked to different
benchmarks resulting in a floating rate and there are no simultaneous matching
movements in the benchmark rates, it leads to basis risk. For instance, consider
that the funds raised by way of 1 yr bank deposits are invested in the Easy Exit
Bond of the IDBI flexi bond issue. In this case, the cost of funds for 1 yr bank
deposits will be 9% ( 1 % less than the prevailing Bank Rate 10%), while the yields
from the bonds will be 14.55% which is 1.5% over 10 yr government bond of
13.05%. with these floating rates of interest, on the assets and liability spreads of
5.55% (14.55-9) is available. Assume that there is a 1% cut in the bank rate. This
will bring down the cost of funds to 8%. Further, assume that the return on 10 yr
government bond has also come down to 12.75%, thereby bringing down the return
on the Easy Exit Bond to 14.25%. As a result of this interest rate change, the spread
will increase to 6.25%. While the bank rate declined by 1%, the yield on 10 yr
government security came down only by 30bp.
Thus, when the change in the interest rates, which are set as a benchmark
for assets/liabilities, is not uniform, it will lead to a decrease/increase in
the spreads.
Yet another dimension of the interest rate risk is the inflation factor, which has to be
considered in order to assess the real interest cost/yields. This occurs because the
changes in the nominal interest rates may not match with the changes in inflation.
The presence of the above mentioned risk would either individually or collectively
result in interest rate risk. These risks will affect the income/expenses of the bank‘s
asset/liability portfolio. This, further, will also have an impact on the value of assets
and liabilities of the bank, thereby affecting even the market value of the bank.
Mere Identification of the presence of the interest rate risk will not suffice. A system
that quantities the risk and manages the same should be put in place so that timely
action can be taken. Any delay or lag in the follow up action may lead to a change
in the dimension of the risk i.e. lead to some other risks like credit risk, liquidity risk,
etc. and make the Situation uncontrollable. Initiating the risk exposure control
process is the classification of all assets and liabilities based on their rate
sensitivity. For this classification, a bank should first be able to forecast the interest
rate fluctuations. Based on these fluctuations, it should identify the rate sensitive
assets/liabilities within the forecasting period. Thus, all assets/liabilities that are
subjected to re pricing within the planning horizon are categorized as Rate Sensitive
Assets (RSAs)/Rate Sensitive liabilities (RSLs).
The need for-re pricing arises from the fact that in a going concern, all assets and
liabilities are replaced as and when they mature- Replacement of these
assets/liabilities may subsequently lead to re-pricing especially in the following
three situations:
There are two aspects that- need to be taken care of in order to understand the
total impact of the rate fluctuation on the net income. These two aspects refer to
the effect of the rate changes on the non-interest income and the interest income.
In the first case, there can be a use tall in the non-interest income since rate
fluctuations affect the value of the assets/liabilities, while in the second case, the
interest rate changes will in certain situations create a mismatch in the pricing of
the assets and liabilities which affect the net interest income.
Thus, it can be observed that the effect of rate fluctuation is extended to both the
balance sheet and the income statement of a financial intermediary. However, while
measuring the interest rate risk, greater emphasis is laid on its affect on interest
income. This is due to a high degree of correlation between the rate fluctuations
and its affect on RSAs/RSLs, which further gives greater scope for maneuverability.
The objective of this method is to stabilize/improve the net interest income in the
short run over discreet, periods of time called the gap periods-
The first step is Thus-to select the gap period which can be anywhere between a
month to a year. Having chosen the same, all the RSAs and RSLs are grouped into
'maturity bucket' based on the maturity and the time until the first possible re
pricing due to change in the interest rate.
The gap is then calculated by considering the difference between the absolute
values of the RSAs and the RSLs, which is mathematically expressed as:
Where,
The gap so analyzed can be used to cut down the interest rate exposure in two
ways, As mentioned earlier, The bank can use it to maintain/improve its net interest
income for changing interest rates, otherwise adopt a speculative strategy wherein
by altering the gap effectively depending on the interest rate forecasts net interest
income can be improved. In either way, the basic assumption of this model is that
there will be an equal change in interest rates for all assets and liabilities.
During a selected gap period, The RSG will be positive when the RSAs are more
than the RSLs, negative when the RSLs are in excess of the RSAs and zero when the
RSAs and RSLs are equal. Based on these outcomes, the maturity gap method
suggests various positions that the treasurer can take in order to tackle with the
rising/falling interest rate structures. Consider the following illustration to
understand the approach.
Illustration 3.1
In the illustration given below, for the three different gap portion i.e. positive,
negative and zero, the impact of rate fluctuations i.e. a rise or a fail, on the NII are
explained-
(Rs. Cr)
(Rs. Cr.)
(Rs. Cr.)
When RSG is positive it is understood that the yield earned in such a situation will
be more than the rate at which the liabilities are serviced. In the illustration given
above, option I has a positive gap of Rs.1000 cr. Initially, the cost of funds is Rs.400
cr., while the total returns are Rs-576 cr. resulting in a NII of Rs 176cr. This will,
however, be affected by changes in the interest rates. When the interest rates
rise/fall by equal amounts, then the increase/decrease in the interest income will be
more than the servicing cost of liabilities, merely due to the fact that there are more
re priceable assets than the re priceable liabilities.
As a third option, the bank can maintain a zero gap and thus remain neutral to the
interest rate fluctuations. It can be observed in Option III of the illustration that
when the RSAs and the RSLs are equal to Rs 1800 cr. The NII remains at Rs.176 cr.
in a rising/falling interest rate scenario.
The utility of the Maturity Gap approach is that for a given level of RSG and with a
forecast of a rise/fall in interest rates, the banker can take the following positions to
improve the net income,
The process of maturity gap approach discussed above assesses the impact of a
percentage change in the interest rates on the NII.
The relationship is given by:
However, the objective of an ALM policy will be to maintain the NIM within certain
limits by managing the risks. And since risks are an inherent quality of the banking
business, it implies that the bank should first decide on the maximum and minimum
levels, for the NIM. Following this will be an ALM technique, which allows a bank to
lake various risk exposure levels, and still remain within the limits set for NIM.
While the above helps in quantifying the interest rate risk, it is more relevant for a
bank to identify the gap, which it should target for a given forecast of interest rate
change. For this purpose one has to go through the following steps:
We are aware that NII is affected by the Net Interest Margin (NIM) and the earning
Assets.
The bank has to decide as a matter of policy the percentage variation in NIM, which
is acceptable/ tolerable. Let that percentage be indicated by ∆ c. then acceptable
variation in the value of NII is given by
Therefore,
Where,
At the outset it must be clear that the above computation of gap is with reference
to future and hence all the above parameters are estimates.
• Earning assets represent the projected level of assets, either absolute or average
levels collected from the bank's short-term forecasts like credit budget.
• NTM represents the margin projected for the relevant period.
• ∆ c is a policy variable to be decided by the top management of the bank-
• ∆ r is a variable which is obtained by using the forecasting techniques and is
provided by the specialist officer.
AFC Banking Corporation Ltd. has earning assets worth Rs. 1,980 cr. and a net
interest margin (NIM) of 4 percent. In a policy decision made by the Bank it has
been decided that a 2.5 percent increase/decrease in the NIM can be the acceptable
limit. It further forecasts a 0.75 percent increase in the interest rate. Assess the
target gap, which the company can maintain to remain within the acceptable limits
of the NII.
Solution
= Rs.264 cr.
Thus, the company can maintain a ±Rs.204 cr. gap in order to manage the interest
rate exposure, for a 0.75 percent increase in interest rate. Since the forecast is an
increase in interest rates, the bank should attempt to maintain a positive gap of
Rs.264 cr.
LIMITATIONS:
• The success/failure of the maturity gap method in tackling the interest rate
exposure depends to a extent on the accuracy level of the forecasts made
regarding the quantum and the direction of the interest rate changes. The
accuracy will, however, be higher when the forecasts are made for shorter
intervals of time. This also applies to other models.
• It assumes that the change in the interest rates is immediately affecting all
the RSAs and RSLs by the same quantum which is not always the case in reality.
• This model ignores the time value of money for the cash flows occurring
during the gap period.
In reality, the market value of even those assets/liabilities, which are not re priced
during the gap period, will be affected. For instance, when an investment is made in
a bond with a 15 percent coupon rate, a rising interest rate scenario implies better
investment opportunities other than the bond. This may lead to fall in the value of
the bond. By ignoring these assets/liabilities, the Gap method does not consider the
total risk arising from the interest rate fluctuations.
We have earlier mentioned that gap ratio (Eq. 3-2) also can be computed along with
gap. Gap ratio by its definition can indicate whether the bank has a positive gap or
negative gap but it does not help in quantifying the risk involved. Gap ratio cannot
be effectively used to counter the interest rate risk since it ignores the size. The
affect of rate fluctuations on the profitability of the company cannot be reflected in
a gap ratio.
Consider the following illustration of two banks, which have a same gap ratio:
Bank A Bank
B
RSAs 2700 900
RSLs 1800 600
GAP (RSAs – RSLs) 900 300
GAP Ratio 1.5 1.5
NII 750 350
Decrease in interest .75 0.75
(%)
Change in NII (Gap x -6.75 -2.25
∆ r)
% change in NII 0.9% 0.64
(∆ NII / NII) %
Thus, it can be observed that in spite of a similar gap ratio in both the cases, a 0.75
percent decrease in the interest rate led to a greater fail in the NII of the Bank A
when compared to Bank B. This explains the fact that while the gap level can aid in
taking positions to tackle a particular interest rate change, the gap ratio cannot do
the same.
Given these limitations, a bank can adopt the Maturity Gap Method to tackle the
interest rate fluctuations so that the impact on net interest income is monitored and
managed.
The Maturity Gap approach assumes a uniform change in the interest rates for all
assets and liabilities. In reality, however, it may not be the case basically due to two
main reasons. Firstly, the market perception towards the change in the interest rate
may be different from the actual rise/fall in the interest rates, For instance, If the
bank rate is cut by 1 percent, according to the gap method, there will be a 1
percent fall in the rate of in the rate of interest for both assets and liabilities.
However this may not be the case if the market perception for the decline in the
interest rate is short-term in nature. This might eventually lead to a fall in the
interest rate by less than 1 percent.
Alternatively, the market may also perceive the rate fluctuations differently for the
long-term interest rates and the short-term interest rates. For instance rate
fluctuation may lead to a 0,75 percent fall in the short term interest rates while the
long-term rates may witness a mere decrease by 0.25 percent.
The second reason for differential rise/fall in interest rates of assets/liabilities can be
the presence of a certain regulation. To explain this further, consider the differential
interest rate loan extended by banks, which has an interest rate of 4 percent. This
rate remains constant irrespective of any amount of fluctuation in the interest rate
of the bank. Similarly, it is quite common to find that the interest rates on term
deposits rise fall with changes in interest rates though the same does not affect the
interest paid on savings bank.
Having done away with the assumption of a uniform change in interest rates of
assets/liabilities, the Rate Adjusted Gap methodology seems to be superior to the
Maturity Gap methodology. In this approach all the rate sensitive assets and
liabilities will he adjusted by assigning weights based on the estimated change in
the rate for the different assets/liabilities for a given change in interest rates.
Rate Adjusted Gap = [RSA1 x WA1 + RSA2 x WA2 +….] - [RSL1 x WL1 + RSL2 x
WL2 +…]
Where,
Consider the following illustration which measures the rate adjusted gap for option
1 of illustration 3.1.
Illustration 3.3
Positive Gap
(Rs Cr.)
= 1150
= (200)
In this case, the interest rate change for the liability of Rs-1800 cr. is given as 0.75
percent (10.75 - 10.00). This implies that on account of rate fluctuation, the interest
rate for that particular liability has increased by 0.75 percent. Thus the weight
attached to this is 0, 75. Similarly, for the asset valuing Rs.800 cr. the weight
assigned is 0.50 percent since the rate fluctuation led to an increase in the yield
from 12 to .12.50 percent. The Gap will then be assessed from these rate adjusted
assets and liabilities which are termed as the rate adjusted gap.
Thus, it can be observed from the illustration that by assigning weights, the positive
gap has actually become negative. If policies were formulated to control the interest
exposure based on the Maturity Gap methodology, it might actually lead to a
different and a very serious situation by changing the nature and size of the risk,
3) Hedging
It is often felt that a floating rate mechanism can minimize the interest-rate risk.
Though this is true, it should however be noted that the possibility of the interest
rate risk getting transformed into credit risk due to this mechanism is always
present. This situation occurs as the floating rate passes the burden of the interest-
rate risk on the borrower.
Yet another means of managing the interest-rate risk is by hedging with the use of
derivative securities, viz. swaps, futures and options. This approach seems to be a
better alternative, especially in a situation where there is a maturity mismatch.
An Interest Rate Swap (IRS) is a financial contract between two parties exchanging
or swapping a stream of interest payments for a notional principal amount on
multiple occasions during a specified period. Such contracts generally involve
exchange of fixed to floating or floating to floating rates of interest. Accordingly, on
each payment date that occurs during the swap period-cash payments based on
fixed/floating and floating rates, are made by the parties to one another.
At the beginning of the period covered by the FRA, the settlement reference rate is
compared to the FRA rate. If the reference rate is higher, the FRA seller pays a
compensating payment (the settlement amount) to the FRA buyer. If the reference
rate is lower, the FRA buyer pays the settlement amount to the FRA seller. The
notional contract amount is used for calculating the settlement amount.
c) Interest Rate Futures
For example, in the case of a bond futures contract, the futures Price locks in the
price for the bond and the resultant yield, since Prices and yields move inversely. As
with other forwards, locking in a price for the underlying asset or an interest rate
through a futures contract also means forfeiting the Possibility of subsequent
favorable market moves.
The two basic types of options are puts and calls. A call option on interest rates
provides protection to the option buyer from rising rates, as defined by the
reference rate. A put option on interest rates provides protection to the option
buyer from declining rates, as defined by the reference rate. The reference rate is
set out in the option contract as the benchmark against which the potential benefits
to the option buyer are measured. The business of options is analogous to
insurance. One party pays to reduce or eliminate risk, while the other party accepts
the risk in exchange for option premium. Option premium paid increases the
effective borrowing cost, or decreases the effective return on assets, for hedgers.
Although the mechanics are similar, the contractual details of an interest rate
option are important because the underlying interest may be specific interest rates,
a fixed income security such as a government bond, swap contract, or futures
contract. The user should clearly understand the contractual details to judge the
appropriateness of the option as a hedge, given the organization‘s own exposure
and objectives.
1. Strike price, which is the interest rate that the option buyer is permitted to
borrow or lend funds (in the case of an option on interest rates)
2. Reference rate, which is the applicable interest rate specified in the contract,
or underlying fixed income security
3. Expiry, which is the date the option contract, if not exercised, expires.
5. Exercise, which is the use of the contract by the option buyer, including how
and when it can be exercised, whether it is cash-settled or settled by delivery of
the underlying asset, and, if permitted, delivery opportunities
Common interest rate option strategies include caps, floors, and collars used to
protect against specific reference interest rates or underlying asset prices. Although
option strategies usually involve over-the-counter options, they can also be
constructed from exchange-traded options.
Strike rate, reset dates, term to expiry, and reference interest rate can be
customized in the over-the-counter market. Purchased interest rate options can be
costly if the underlying rate is volatile. If underlying rates move, but not enough to
make the option worth exercising, the option will expire worthless, resulting in a
potential loss through adverse market rates as well as the cost of the option
premium.
Once the bank is exposed to the interest rate risk, the immediate step to be
followed is the quantification of the same by means of a suitable methodology.
Some of the approaches used to tackle interest rate risk are given below and a
discussion on the same is followed.
Efficient matching of prices to manage the interest rate risk does not suffice to
meet the ALM objective. Price matching should be coupled with proper maturity
matching. The interlink age between the interest rate risk and the liquidity of the
firm highlights the need for maturity matching. The underlying implication of this
inter-linkage is that rate fluctuations may lead to defaults severely affecting the
asset-liability position. Further in a highly volatile situation it may lead to liquidity
crisis forcing the closure of the bank.
Thus, while management of the prices of assets and liabilities is an essential part of
ALM, so is liquidity. Liquidity, which is represented by the quality and marketability
of the assets and liabilities, exposes the firm to liquidity risk. Though the
management of liquidity risk and interest rate risks go hand in hand, there is,
however, a phenomenal difference in the approach to tackle both these risks. A
bank generally aims to eliminate the liquidity risk while it only tries to manage the
interest rate risk. This differential approach is primarily based on the fact that
elimination of interest rate risk is not profitable, while elimination risk does result in
long-term sustenance. Before attempting to analyze the elimination of liquidity risk,
it is essential to understand the concept of liquidity management.
The core activity of any bank is to attain profitability through fund management i.e.
acquisition and deployment of financial resources. An intricate part of fund
management is liquidity management. Liquidity management relates primarily to
the dependability of cash flows, both I flows and outflows and the ability of the bank
to meet maturing liabilities and customer demands for cash within the basic pricing
policy framework. Liquidity risk hence, originates from the potential inability of the
bank to generate cash to cope with the decline in liabilities or increase in assets.
Thus, the cause and effect of liquidity risk are primarily linked to the nature of the
assets and liabilities of the bank. All investment and financing decisions of the bank,
irrespective of whether they have long term or short term implications do effect the
asset-liability position of the bank which may further affect its liquidity position. In
such a scenario, the bank should continuously monitor its liquidity position in the
long run and also on a day-to-day basis.
Approaches:
Given below are two approaches that relate to these two situational decisions:
I. Fundamental Approach.
II. Technical Approach.
These two methods distinguish from each other in their strategically approach to
eliminate liquidity risk. While the fundamental approach aims to ensure the liquidity
for long run sustenance of the bank, the technical approach targets the liquidity in
the short run. Due to these features, the two approaches supplement each other in
eliminating the liquidity risk and ensuring profitability.
I. Fundamental Approach:
Since long run sustenance is driving factor in this approach, the bank tries to
tackle /eliminate the liquidity risk in the long run by basically controlling its assets-
liability position. A prudent way of tackling this situation can be by adjusting the
maturity of assets and liabilities or by diversifying and broadening the sources of
funds.
The two alternatives available to control the liquidity exposure under this approach
are Asset Management and Liability Management. This implies that liquidity can be
imparted into the system either by liability creation or by asset liquidation,
whichever suite the situation.
Asset Management:
Asset management is to eliminate liquidity risk by holding near cash assets i.e.
those assets, which can be turned into cash whenever required. For instance, sale
of securities from the investment portfolio can enhance liquidity.
When asset management is resorted to, the liquidity requirements are generally
met from primary and secondary reserves. Primary reserves refer to cash assets
held to meet the statutory cash reserve requirements (CRR) and other operating
purposes. Though primary reserves do not serve the purpose of liquidity
management for long period, they can be held as second line of defense against
daily demand for cash. This is possible mainly due to the flexibility in the cash
reserve balances (statutory cash reserves are required to be maintained only on a
daily average basis for a reserve maintenance period).
However, most of the liquidity is generally attained from the secondary reserves,
which include those assets held primarily for liquidity purposes. These secondary
reserves are highly liquid assets, which when converted into cash carry little risk of
loss in their value. Further, they can also be converted into cash prior to their
maturity at the discretion of the management. When asset management is resorted
to for liquidity, it will be through liquidation of secondary reserves. Assets that fall
under this category generally take the form of unsecured marketable securities. The
bank can dispose these secondary reserves to honor demands for deposit
withdrawals, adverse clearing balances or any other reasons.
Liability Management:
Converse to the asset management strategy is liability management, which focuses
on the sources of funds. Here the bank is not maintaining any surplus funds, but
tries to achieve the required liquidity by borrowing funds when the need arises. The
underlying implications of this process will be that the bank mostly will be investing
in long-term securities /loans (since the short-term surplus balance will mostly be in
a deficit position) and further, it will not depend on its liquidity position/surplus
balance for credit accommodation/business proposals. Thus in liability management
a proposal may be passed even when there is no surplus balance since the bank
intends to raise the required funds from external sources. Though it involves a
greater risk for the bank, it will also fetch higher yields due to the long-term
investments. However, sustenance of such high spreads will depend on the cost of
borrowing. Thus, the cost and the maturity of the instrument used for borrowing
funds play a vital role in liability management. The bank should on the one hand be
able to raise funds at low cost and on the other hand ensure that the maturity
profile of the instrument does not lead to or enhance the liquidity risk and the
interest rate risk. Of the two strategies available in fundamental approach, it is
understood that while asset management tries to answer the basic question of how
to deploy the surplus to eliminate liquidity risk, liability management tries to
achieve the same by mobilizing additional funds.
Applicability:
Differentiating from this retail entry is the large bank, which is mostly into
wholesale business activities and fund requirement for which is generally in large
quantum. Its customer profile, which comprises of large corporate, other banks and
high net worth individuals, explains the need for such large amounts. Since its
exposure is limited only to a selected few customers, its deposit base is poor when
compared to the retail bank. However, it has the ability to raise large volumes of
funds at short notice. In such a situation, the strategy adopted by this bank can be
that of liability management so that it can mobilize funds to meet its asset
requirements.
After making clear the basic distinction between the deposit-rich and the deposit-
poor bank, a suitable liquidity management strategy can now be identified for each
of them.
Consider the statement of assets and liabilities of the Bank of Baroda (BoB) for the
year ended March 31, 1996:
(Rs. Cr)
It can be observed from the balance sheet that the BoB is a deposit-rich bank since
it has a basic objective of accepting deposits and financing investments to the
industry. Setting aside the cash and bank balances, advances, fixed and other
assets, the bank has Rs.12,250.85 cr. at its disposal. The bank is a net lender in the
call/money as seen from the deployment of Rs.2,656.14 cr. as against borrowing of
Rs.1,206.84 crore which in fact includes refinance. To stabilize its liquidity position
and thereby eliminate liquidity risk, BoB will now have to invest these surplus funds
effectively through a proper asset management policy. Thus, asset management
involves acquisition of liabilities first and then determining the composition of
assets.
Investments can be made in call the market, in government securities or
instruments of other corporate. When funds are put into the call market, they are
invested only for a very short period of time and are rolled over. There is a high
level of liquidity in such investments, which is, however, attached with a lower yield.
Technically, the deployment in cal market is unsecured. However, the risk perceived
is lower since all the participants in the call market are institutions such as banks,
DFI‘s, Discount Houses, etc. When compared to call market instruments,
government securities offer higher yields and are at the same time highly secured
with moderate liquidity when compared to call market and marketability. The main
disadvantage in this investment will be the transaction costs involved while
buying/selling the instruments. Compared to the call market instruments and the
government securities, the corporate instruments provide lesser liquidity but at the
same time higher returns for greater risk involved in such investments.
Due to these short-term investments, the bank opting for asset management may
have to forego higher yields. To overcome this shortfall, in certain cases of asset
management, the bank would like to take the benefit of higher yields by investing
long. It can disinvest these long-term securities in the secondary market as when it
needs funds. However, the major considerations in opting for long-term investments
are the transaction costs and the secondary market characteristics. The second
factor influences the banks ability to liquidate the asset prior to maturity.
Whichever may be the investment policy, it should, however, be made within the
interest rate exposure limits. This implies that an effective asset management
policy requires meeting the dual purpose of profitability and liquidity.
After having studied the management of liquidity position from the assets side,
consider liability management for tackling the liquidity position.
The following is the balance sheet of ICICI Ltd. for the year ended March 31,1996:
(Rs. Cr)
There are, however, a few inherent risks present in liability management. Firstly
since funds are raised by borrowing from various sources and different markets,
rate fluctuations in any of the markets can enhance the cost of borrowing and
thereby increase the interest rate exposure. Secondly, the bank will have to
maintain its credibility throughout. Since the borrowings are from well-qualified
institutions and investors who are well aware of the happenings in the market, a
default or decrease in its credibility might affect the interest rates and other
borrowing terms, costing dearly to the bank. Other critical aspects in liability
management relate to the sources and the time period for the borrowings. Over
indulgence in short-term/overnight borrowings at low costs should be avoided so as
to maintain stability in the sources of funds and also to control the interest rate
exposure. At the same time medium and long-term loans should be selected in a
manner so as to reduce asset-liability mismatch. One major consideration for
adopting this strategy is that the bank should be in a strong borrowing position lest
it may lead to liquidity risk.
Working Funds Approach and the Cash Flows Approach are the two methods to
assess the liquidity position in the short run. Of these two approaches, the former
concentrates on the actual cash position and depending on the factual data, it
forecasts the liquidity requirements. The latter approach goes a step forward and
forecasts the cash flows i.e. estimates any change in the deposits withdrawals
credit accommodation etc. Thus apart from assessing the liquidity requirements, it
also advises the bank on its investments and borrowing requirements well in
advance.
Discussed below are these two models of technical approach used for
liquidity risk management.
Under this approach, liquidity position is assessed based on the quantum of working
funds available to the bank. Since working funds reflect the total resources available
with the bank to execute its business operations, the amount of liquidity is given as
a percentage to the total working funds. The bank can arrive at this percentage
based on its historical performance. This approach of forecasting liquidity
requirement takes a broad overview of the liquidity position since the working funds
are taken as a consolidated figure.
The working funds comprise of owned funds, deposits and float funds. Instead of a
consolidated approach, the bank can have a segment-wise break up of the working
funds to arrive at the percentage for maintaining liquidity. Based on the position of
the limit arrived as above and the available liquidity, the bank will have to invest
borrow the surplus/deficit balances to adjust the liquidity position. In this approach,
the bank will have to assess the liquidity requirements for each of the components
of working funds.
The liquidity for the owned funds component, due to its very nature of being
owners‘ capital will be nil. The second component of working funds is deposits, the
liquidity requirements of which depend on the maturity profile. Thus, prior to
assessing the liquidity requirements of these deposits, the bank should categorize
them into different segments based on the withdrawal pattern. All deposits based
on their maturity fall under the following three categories:
• Volatile Funds
• Vulnerable Funds
• Stable Funds
Volatile funds include those deposits, which are sure to be withdrawn during the
period for which the liquidity estimate is to be made. These include, short-term
deposits like the 30 days deposits, etc. raised from the corporate high net worth
clients of the bank. The probability of these funds being withdrawn before or on
their maturity is high. Included in this category of volatile funds are current deposits
of corporates that also have a high degree of variability. Due to the nature of the
volatile funds, they demand almost 100 percent liquidity maintenance since the
demand for funds can arise at any time.
Deposits, which are likely to be withdrawn during the planning tenure, are
categorized as vulnerable deposits. A very good example of this type of deposits is
the savings deposits. However, the entire quantum of savings deposits cannot be
considered as vulnerable. On an average, it can be observed from the operations of
the bank, that there will be a certain level up to which the funds are stable i.e. the
level below which the funds will not be withdrawn. Hence, the liquidity requirements
to meet the maturity of the vulnerable funds will be less than 100 percent and
varies depending upon the risk-return policy of the bank.
Finally, the residual of the deposit base after segregating them into the above two
categories will fall under the stable funds category. These deposits have the least
probability of being withdrawn during the planning period and hence the liquidity to
be maintained to meet the maturing stable deposits will also be lower when
compared to the other two types of deposits. As explained above, the stable portion
of the savings deposits fall under this category. Most of the term deposits, by their
nature fall under this category.
Float funds, which are the third component of the working funds, are much similar
to the volatile funds. These funds are generally in transit and comprise of DD‘s,
Banker‘s cheques, etc. which may be presented for payment at any time. However,
this segment also has a minimum level over and above which the variability occurs.
Hence, 100 percent liquidity will have to be provided for the variable component.
Based on the working funds, consolidated or component-wise, the bank will have to
assess the cash balances/ liquidity position in the following manner:
Having obtained the consolidated/component-wise working funds, the bank will now
have to estimate the average cash and bank balances that are to be maintained.
This average balance can be maintained as a percentage to the total working funds.
This percentage level is based on forecasts, the accuracy levels of which vary
depending on the factors affecting the cash flows. Hence, it is advisable for the
bank to set up a variance range for acceptance depending on its profitability
requirements. Thus, as long as the average balances vary within this tolerance
range, profitability and liquidity are ensured. Any balance beyond this range will
necessitate corrective action either by deploying the surplus funds or by borrowing
funds to meet the deficit. This acceptance level is, however, a dynamic figure since
it depends on the working funds that may keep changing from time to time.
Illustration 3.7
MM Financial Institution Ltd. (MMFI) which has been offering banking and
investment services for the past 2 decades has a branch network of 250. The
working funds of MMFI at the end of 1996-97 are Rs. 1500 crore. The average cash
balances are maintained at 1 percent of the total working funds. Further, the
management has decided that to ensure proper liquidity, the acceptance range for
variance can be up to 5 percent.
Solution:
Thus, the cash balances of MMFI can lie between Rs. 14.25 – 15.75 crore.
Average cash balance with increased working funds = 2300 * .01 = Rs. 23
crore.
Thus, if the working funds of the bank are increased to Rs. 2300 crore the range for
maintaining cash balances will be Rs. 21.85 – 24.15.
In case the variance in the cash balances is beyond this range, the bank should take
the corrective measures. However, before taking any such measures it is advisable
for the bank to first identify the reasons for such variances. If there has been any
fundamental change in the operating environment of the bank, then the variance in
the cash balance will generally be long-term in nature. Thus, there will be a need for
adjusting the cash balances as per the situation. However, in cases where the
deviation in the cash balances has been due to certain short-term changes in the
market, the variance will not last for long and hence it may not necessitate any
corrective action.
Of the two different methods of forecasting within the working funds approach, the
consolidated method suits the bank, which is mainly playing the role of a
development bank. This is basically due to its small deposit base and less volatile
working funds. Distinguishing from this bank is the deposit-rich commercial bank,
which has a greater component of working funds falling into the deposits category.
Due to this, the volatility level is also higher and hence the consolidated approach
of working funds may not indicate the real liquidity requirements. In such a case, a
component-wise assessment of liquidity would be a better alternative.
The working funds approach of estimating the liquidity position, however, has a few
limitations: Firstly, it is a subjective decision to some extent to classify deposits
based on their withdrawal pattern. Secondly, the focus is laid only on the existing
deposits and it ignores potential deposits. Thus, the forecasts may go haywire when
there is an unanticipated change in incremental deposits and loan demands. To
avoid subjectivity, the variation in different types of deposits may be considered
based on the historical data. The percentages can be worked out as weighted
average of individual segments. However, the methodology involved in the
computation of the percentages will be different for different banks since it depends
on the deposit mobilization, branch networking and the liquidity policy of the banks.
This method of forecasting liquidity tries to eliminate the drawback faced in the
Working Funds approach by forecasting the potential increase/decrease in
deposits/credits accommodation. To tackle such a situation, trend can be
established based on historical data about the change in the deposits and loans.
The planning horizon of a bank may be a financial year or a part of it i.e. a few
months to a quarter/half-year period. The bank should ensure that the planning
horizon for estimating the liquidity position should neither be too long or too short if
the benefits of forecasting are to be reaped. There are various factors both external
and internal to the bank which has an impact on the forecasted cash flows. Thus,
when the forecasts are made for a long period they might actually not remain the
same thereby affecting all the decisions that have been taken based on such
forecasts. Similarly when the planning horizon is too short, decisions relating to
borrowings and investments may not be effective enough to increase profitability.
Considering these factors, the bank should decide on a period which will not affect
the forecasted cash flows to a large extent and at the same time will enable it to
make optimal investment-borrowing decisions.
Forecasting cash flows to assess and manage the liquidity position of the bank,
however, involves expenditure. These forecasting costs can further be classified
into recurring costs and non-recurring costs. Non-recurring costs are those, which
occur when the bank initiates the cash forecasting process. These include cash
outflows for installation of the necessary information system that collates and
maintains the data necessary for forecasting. On the other hand, there are certain
recurring costs occurring on a regular basis, which include the man-hours spent,
data transmission costs and the maintenance of the systems used for this process.
These costs incurred in forecasting further depend on three important factors viz.
branch networking, forecasting periods within the planning horizon and the details
of information required for forecasting. By nature, these three factors have a direct
influence on the forecasting costs. This can be explained by the fact that if the bank
has a wide branch network, it will definitely have to incur more expenditure since
data has to be collated from such a wide network accurately and at regular
intervals. Similarly, when the bank plans to forecast its cash position for every
month during the planning horizon of, say a year, the cost of forecasting will be
more as compared to the expenditure incurred for forecasting will be more as
compared to the expenditure incurred for forecasting for every quarter/half-yearly
period. Higher costs are involved when detailed information is sought, which needs
no explanation.
The bank should first decide on the planning horizon that suits its operational style
and then based on the cost constant decide on the number of forecasting periods
and other such details. Following such decisions will be the assessment of the
liquidity position based on the forecasts made for the cash inflows and outflows. The
basic steps involved in this process are as follows:
The most critical task of liquidity management is predicting the expected cash
inflows coming by way of incremental deposits and recovery of credit and the
outflows relating to deposit withdrawals and loan disbursals. In this process,
accuracy levels when a bank forecasts cash outflows by way of deposit withdrawals
and credit disbursals are fairly high, when compared to the cash inflow forecasts
relating to loan repayments and deposit accretion. This difficulty in the forecasting
of cash flows coupled with the mismatches arising due to the maturity pattern of
assets and liabilities result in the liquidity risk. Thus the process of forecasting cash
flows with a high degree of accuracy holds the key to risk management.
All estimates are generally given as at the beginning of the month or at the end of
the month and are silent upon the fluctuations that may occur during the month,
when the forecasting period is chosen as a month. In order to manage the intra-
month liquidity problems, there should always be a surplus balance. In such a
scenario, it is always better for the bank to consider that the deficit occurs at the
beginning of the period while the surplus occurs at the end of the period. Thus,
funds should be provided to meet the deficit balance at the beginning of the
forecasting period.
a) Transaction Risk
b) Translation Risk
Translation risk traditionally referred to risk that arose from the accounting
translation of assets and liabilities for financial statement purposes. Translation risk
can result when assets, liabilities, or profits are translated from the operating
currency into a reporting currency— for example, the reporting currency of a parent
company.
2) Currency Futures
Unlike forward contracts, there is no requirement for a line of credit with a financial
institution to transact a futures contract. Futures contracts are transacted through a
broker or futures commission merchant. Futures contracts are contractual
obligations and both margin and transaction commissions apply to them. U.S.
exchanges quote currency futures prices in U.S. dollars per foreign currency unit.
Performance of parties to a futures contract is guaranteed by a clearing corporation,
replacing credit risk of any individual contract holder with exposure to the clearing
corporation.
3) Currency Swaps
Foreign exchange options are similar to insurance contracts. The option buyer
purchases a contract that provides protection for a particular currency (the
underlying currency) beyond a predetermined exchange rate. The option buyer
receives protection against adverse exchange rates, while maintaining the flexibility
to take advantage of more favourable exchange rates. A call option permits the call
option buyer to buy the underlying currency at the strike rate. A put option permits
the put option buyer to sell the underlying currency at the strike rate. Currency
transactions always involve the sale of one currency and the purchase of another
currency. As a result, a currency option is a put option on one currency and a call
option on the other currency. In exchange for paying option premium to the option
seller, the option buyer obtains the right, but not the obligation, to exercise the
option if it is favourable to do so. The purchase of an option provides protection
beyond the strike rate for the contracted amount while maintaining the flexibility to
take advantage of favourable exchange rates. From the option buyer‘s standpoint,
the maximum loss associated with the purchase of a currency option is the
premium paid, although there may be other losses related to the option buyer‘s
currency exposure.
The foreign exchange option contract sets out the contractual details including:
• Strike price. The exchange rate at which the underlying currency can be bought
or sold according to the terms of the option contract
• Notional contract amount. The amount of currency that can be sold or bought
according to the terms of the option contract
• Expiry date. The date at which the option contract, if not exercised, expires
• Exercise. How and when the option contract can be exercised (or used) by the
option buyer.
In exchange for receiving option premium from the option buyer, the option seller
takes on the obligation to deliver or accept delivery of the underlying currency at
the strike price if the option is exercised by the option buyer. The option seller has
considerably more risk than the option buyer, and it is not always possible to
quantify the maximum loss to the option seller. The option buyer decides whether
to exercise the option or not.
8. Investment-Borrowing decisions
Assessment of the liquidity gap based on the forecasts is essentially one aspect of
the liquidity management. The other major task of liquidity management is to
manage this liquidity gap by adjusting the residual surplus/deficit balances.
Considering the high costs associated with cash forecasting, it is essential that the
benefits drawn by the bank from such forecasting should be substantially large to
give some residual gains after meeting the forecasting costs. This objective can,
however, be attained only if the bank makes prudent investment/borrowing
decisions to manage the surplus/deficit.
There are, however, a few factors which must be considered before deciding on the
deployment of excess funds/borrowings for meeting the deficit which are given
below:
• Deposit Withdrawals
• Credit Accommodation
• Profit fluctuation
The liquidity level to be maintained by a bank should firstly, provide for deposits
withdrawals and secondly to accommodate the increase in credit demands. While
deposit withdrawals must be honored immediately, it is also of priority to ensure
that legitimate loan requests of customers are met regardless of the funds position.
Satisfactory credit accommodation ultimately results in more business for the bank.
Liquidity is further influenced by the fluctuation in the business profits of the bank.
Any fluctuation in the interest rates may result in an increase or decrease in the net
interest earnings of the bank.
Considering these factors, the bank should adjust its surplus/ deficit to meet the
liquidity gap. While surplus funds can be invested in short/long-term securities
depending on the bank‘s investment policy, the shortfalls can be met either by
disinvesting the securities or by borrowing funds from the market. This again will
depend on the strategical issue of whether the bank prefers to manage its liquidity
risk using asset management or liability management.
Surplus Balance:
In case of a surplus balance, the bank has the option of either maintaining cash
balances or investing these excess funds in securities/loans. Though holding
adequate cash reserves can eliminate the liquidity risk completely, the cost
involved in doing so could be prohibitive, especially for a bank. Hence the bank
should make optimum use of its idle funds by investing in such a way that the yields
earned are greater.
There are generally 2 options available to the bank while it makes its investment
decisions. It can invest either for a short term and roll over until the funds are
required for some other purpose of, invest for a longer period after properly
assessing the cash requirements through the forecasting process.
In this decision making process one has to, however, consider/understand the
behavior of the yield curves on the long/short-term investments. The long-term
investments do give higher yields than short-term investments. The firm will also
have to consider the transaction cost involved while converting its marketable
securities.
Deficit Balance:
The second important question that the bank will have to face is, how to meet the
deficit cash balances. The only alternative available to meet its deficit is by
borrowing funds from the market. While doing this, the aim of the bank should be to
keep its cost of raising such short-term funds as low as possible. The bank also has
an option of meeting its deficit by internal sources by adjusting against surplus
balances obtained earlier. In this option, the number of forecasting periods plays a
vital role.
There are various models that discuss the suitable ratio that can be maintained
between the cash balances and the investments.
Thus, the criteria while taking such decisions will be to increase yields on
investments and lower the costs of borrowings. Thus there should be optimization in
the investment deposit ratio to ensure that the level of idle funds at any point of
time is not as high so as to cut into profitability of the bank. This trade off decision
of the bank depends upon its attitude towards the liquidity policy i.e.
aggressive/conservative. Depending on the liquidity position to be maintained, the
risk preferences and risk factors, management can have a policy which has a
relatively large/small amount of liquidity.
9. Securitization
The loan profile of the bank will generally be long term in nature. Large volumes of
funds get blocked in project financing and asset financing activities of the
institution.
This arrangement induces liquidity into the system by imparting liquidity to the
highly illiquid asset. In the process of enhancing liquidity, securitisation also reduces
the interest rate exposure for the bank since risk associated to the risk fluctuations
will also be eliminated.
10. Conclusion
To sum up, the paradigm shift in the risk exposure levels of the financial
institutions, has definitely led to Treasury management assuming a center stage.
Undoubtedly all financial institutions need to perform Treasury management. But to
have a proper Treasury management process in place, a thorough understanding of
the various operations on its assets & liabilities becomes essential. Such an
understanding will enable the financial institution to identify and unbundled the
risks and further aid in adopting and developing appropriate risk management
models to manage risks.
11. BIBLIOGRAPHY
Books:
• Business world
• Articles from economic times
• Articles from Business Standard
1
Web Sites:
• www.indiainfoline.com
• www.investopedia.com
• www.treasury-management.com.
• www.financialexpress.com
• www.itmbc.com