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Bus2113 - Operations Management: Prepared For: Mr. Fun Luen Lok

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Prepared For : Mr.

Fun Luen Lok

BUS2113 – OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT


Prepared By : Sharon Geraldine
SIM ID : 10220212
Question 1
a. MSE using Naive Approach
Actual Sales Squared
Period (Units) Sales Forecast (Units) Error Error
1 134      
2 145 134 11 121
3 130 145 15 225
4 124 130 6 36
5 170 124 46 2116
6 157 170 13 169
7 163 157 6 36
8 135 163 28 784
9 144 135 9 81
10 140 144 4 16
      Total 3584
      MSE 398.2

b. MSE using 3 periods moving average method


Actual Sales 3 periods moving Squared
Period (Units) average Error Error
1 134      
2 145      
3 130      
4 124 136.3 12.3 151.2
5 170 133 37 1369
6 157 141.3 15.7 246.4
7 163 150.3 12.7 161.2
8 135 163.3 28.3 800.8
9 144 151.7 7.7 59.2
10 140 147.3 7.3 53.2
Total 2841
MSE 405.8
c. MSE using exponential smoothing method with a smoothing constant of 0,4
Period Actual Sales (Units) Forecast Formula Sales Forecast Error Squared Error
1 134 150
2 145 150 + 0.4(134-150) 143.6 1.4 2
3 130 143.6 + 0.4(145-143.6) 144.2 14.2 201.7
4 124 144.2 + 0.4(130-144.2) 138.5 14.5 210.2
5 170 138.5 + 0.4(124-138.5) 132.7 37.3 1391.3
6 157 132.7 + 0.4(170-132.7) 147.6 9.4 88.4
7 163 147.6 + 0.4(157-147.6) 151.4 11.6 134.6
8 135 151.4 + 0.4(163-151.4) 156 21 441
9 144 156 + 0.4(135-156) 147.6 3.6 13
10 140 147.6 + 0.4(144-147.6) 146.2 6.2 38.4
Total 2520.6
MSE 280

d. MSE using exponential smoothing method with a smoothing constant of 0.7


Period Actual Sales (Units) Forecast Formula Sales Forecast Error Squared Error
1 134 150
2 145 150 + 0.7(134-150) 138.8 6.2 38.4
3 130 138.8 + 0.7(145-138.8) 143.1 13.1 171.6
4 124 143.1 + 0.7(130-143.1) 133.9 9.9 98
5 170 133.9 + 0.7(124-133.9) 127 43 1849
6 157 127 + 0.7(170-127) 157.1 0.1 0
7 163 157.1 + 0.7(157-157.1) 157 6 36
8 135 157 + 0.7(163-157) 161.2 26.2 686.4
9 144 161.2 + 0.7(135-161.2) 142.9 1.1 1.2
10 140 142.9 + 0.7(144-142.9) 143.7 3.7 13.7
Total 2894.3
MSE 321.6

e. Most accurate method is using exponential smoothing method with a smoothing


constant of 0,4. Because if we use this method the MSE is the smallest among other
methods. The smaller the MSE, the more accurate it is.

f. Forecast demand for period 11


Period Actual Sales (Units) Forecast Formula Sales Forecast Error Squared Error
10 140 147.6 + 0.4(144-147.6) 146.2 6.2 38.4
11 146.2 + 0.4(140-146.2) 143.7
Question 2
Frito lays is a company that produces lays potato chips. Frito puts competitive on a low
cost strategy. Firstly, lay's is a natural product that emphasizes three simple ingredients –
potatoes, oil and salt. It's also free of msg, soy, gluten, and dairy, so it will appeal to customers
who care about these ingredients.

Secondly, frito lays grows its own potatoes with quality grade A potatoes. Frito lays
recently plans to expand its planting the company's newest project is at its rosenberg, texas,
plant, where frito-lay plans to spend $200 million to add two production lines and boost
warehouse capacity [ CITATION Hoc21 \l 1057 ].

Thirdly, lay's plant employs only a small number of people to operate the various
machinery that make its products. Machines accurately chop the potatoes into thin chips to
ensure crispness when consumed by consumers. To ensure the consistency of the chips, several
equipment are employed throughout the manufacturing process. A machine removes bad chips
with burnt spots, leaving only perfect chips.

(160 Words)
Question 3
Xiaomi has become the world’s second biggest smartphone. Overseas expansion was
the biggest driver of Xiaomi’s growth, with the company increasing shipments by more than
300 per cent in Latin America, 150 per cent across Africa and 50 per cent in Western Europe
[ CITATION Sav21 \l 1057 ]

At every stage of the manufacturing and assembly process, Xiaomi ensures the quality
of the company's most popular smartphones. Firstly, to store components, raw materials in
warehouses are kept at a temperature of 28 degrees Celsius. Workers also consider the local
climate, which may have an impact on the components housed in the facility. Secondly, there
are two different sections with advanced machines for testing the quality of the components.
Before being transferred to the production line for automated testing and assembly into a
finished product, these pieces go through manual quality testing. Thirdly, Xiaomi works with the
best makers of electronic equipment spare parts such as Harman Kardon, Corning Gorilla Glass
Victus, and more to produce the best quality. [ CITATION Lee21 \l 1057 ]. Fourthly, Its scientists
responded to user suggestions as soon as they were received, frequently communicating with
users to fix issues.

(187 Words)
References
1. Hockett, M. (2021, June 29). Frito-Lay to Add 160 Jobs with Texas Plant Expansion. Retrieved
from https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/frito-lay-to-add-160-jobs-with-texas-plant-
expansion/

2. Lee, C. (2021, July 3). KM Leong, general manager for Southeast Asia of Xiaomi International, on
the new Mi 11 smartphone and the brand’s big goals. Retrieved from
https://www.prestigeonline.com/sg/people-events/people/km-leong-general-manager-for-
southeast-asia-of-xiaomi-international-on-the-new-mi-11-smartphone-and-the-brands-big-
goals/

3. Savov, V. (2021, July 17). Retrieved from https://www.business-


standard.com/article/technology/xiaomi-overtakes-apple-as-world-s-no-2-smartphone-maker-
canalys-reprot-121071600135_1.html

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