Methodology and specifications guide

ARGUS ammonia

Contents:
Methodology overview 2
Introduction5
Publication frequency and assessment timing 5
General methodology 5
Assessing price ranges 5
Distressed trades and disruptions to trade 6
Spot and formula pricing 6
Units6
Lot and cargo sizes 6
Products and specifications 6
Price guide — how prices are defined 6
Freight7
Ammonia cost of production 8
Green ammonia 8
Natural gas prices 8
Marine fuel equivalent prices 8

Last Updated: May 2021

The most up-to-date Argus Ammonia methodology is available on www.argusmedia.com

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Methodology and specifications guide May 2021

Methodology overview • Transactions

• Bids and offers
Methodology rationale • Other market information, to include spread values between
Argus strives to construct methodologies that reflect the way the grades, locations, timings, and many other data.
market trades. Argus aims to produce price assessments which are
reliable and representative indicators of commodity market values In many markets, the relevant methodology will assign a relatively
and are free from distortion. As a result, the specific currencies, higher importance to transactions over bids and offers, and a
volume units, locations and other particulars of an assessment are relatively higher importance to bids and offers over other market
determined by industry conventions. information. Certain markets however will exist for which such a
hierarchy would produce unreliable and non-representative price as-
In the ammonia markets, Argus publishes physical market prices in sessments, and so the methodology must assign a different relative
the open market as laid out in the specifications and methodology importance in order to ensure the quality and integrity of the price
guide. Argus uses the trading period deemed by Argus to be most assessment. And even in markets for which the hierarchy normally
appropriate, in consultation with industry, to capture market liquidity. applies, certain market situations will at times emerge for which the
strict hierarchy would produce non-representative prices, requiring
In order to be included in the assessment process, deals must meet Argus to adapt in order to publish representative prices.
the minimum volume, delivery, timing and specification require-
ments in our methodology. In illiquid markets, and in other cases Verification of transaction data
where deemed appropriate, Argus assesses the range within which Reporters carefully analyse all data submitted to the price assess-
product could have traded by applying a strict process outlined later ment process. These data include transactions, bids, offers, vol-
in this methodology. umes, counterparties, specifications and any other information that
contributes materially to the determination of price. This high level
Survey process of care described applies regardless of the methodology employed.
Argus price assessments are informed by information received from Specific to transactions, bids, and offers, reporters seek to verify the
a wide cross section of market participants, including producers, price, the volume, the specifications, location basis, and counter-
consumers and intermediaries. Argus reporters engage with the in- party. In some transactional average methodologies, reporters also
dustry by proactively polling participants for market data. Argus will examine the full array of transactions to match counterparties and
contact and accept market data from all credible market sources arrive at a list of unique transactions. In some transactional average
including front and back office of market participants and brokers. methodologies, full details of the transactions verified are published
Argus will also receive market data from electronic trading platforms electronically and are accessible by subscribers. The deals are also
and directly from the back offices of market participants. Argus will published in the weekly report.
accept market data by telephone, instant messenger, email or other
means. Several tests are applied by reporters in all markets to transactional
data to determine if it should be subjected to further scrutiny. If a
Argus encourages all sources of market data to submit all market transaction has been identified as failing such a test, it will receive
data to which they are a party that falls within the Argus stated further scrutiny. For assessments used to settle derivatives and for
methodological criteria for the relevant assessment. Argus encour- many other assessments, Argus has established internal proce-
ages all sources of market data to submit transaction data from dures that involve escalation of inquiry within the source’s company
back office functions. and escalating review within Argus management. Should this pro-
cess determine that a transaction should be excluded from the price
Throughout all markets, Argus is constantly seeking to increase assessment process, the supervising editor will initiate approval
the number of companies willing to provide market data. Report- and, if necessary, documentation procedures.
ers are mentored and held accountable for expanding their pool
of contacts. The number of entities providing market data can vary Primary tests applied by reporters
significantly from day to day based on market conditions. • Transactions not transacted at arm’s length, including deals
between related parties or affiliates.
For certain price assessments identified by local management, if • Transaction prices that deviate significantly from the mean of
more than 50pc of the market data involved in arriving at a price all transactions submitted for that day.
assessment is sourced from a single party the supervising editor will • Transaction prices that fall outside of the generally observed
engage in an analysis of the market data with the primary reporter to lows and highs that operated throughout the trading day.
ensure that the quality and integrity of the assessment has not been • Transactions that are suspected to be a leg of another trans-
affected. action or in some way contingent on an unknown transaction.
• Single deal volumes that significantly exceed the typical trans-
Market data usage action volume for that market.
In each market, Argus uses the methodological approach deemed • Transaction details that are identified by other market par-
to be the most reliable and representative for that market. Argus will ticipants as being for any reason potentially anomalous and
utilise various types of market data in its methodologies, to include: perceived by Argus to be as such.

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• Transaction details that are reported by one counterparty dif- to internally assess value prior to entering the market with a bid or
ferently than the other counterparty. offer. Applying these valuation metrics along with sound judgment
• Any transaction details that appear to the reporter to be illogi- significantly narrows the band within which a commodity can be as-
cal or to stray from the norms of trading behaviour. This could sessed, and greatly increases the accuracy and consistency of the
include but is not limited to divergent specifications, unusual price series. The application of judgment is conducted jointly with
delivery location and counterparties not typically seen. the supervising editor, in order to be sure that guidelines below are
• Transactions that involve the same counterparties, the same being followed. Valuation metrics include the following:
price and delivery dates are checked to see that they are
separate deals and not one deal duplicated in Argus records. Relative value transactions
Frequently transactions occur which instead of being an outright
Secondary tests applied by editors for transactions purchase or sale of a single commodity, are instead exchanges of
identified for further scrutiny commodities. Such transactions allow reporters to value less liquid
markets against more liquid ones and establish a strong basis for
Transaction tests the exercise of judgment.
• The impact of linkage of the deal to possible other transac-
tions such as contingent legs, exchanges, options, swaps, • Exchange one commodity for a different commodity in the
or other derivative instruments. This will include a review of same market at a negotiated value.
transactions in markets that the reporter may not be covering. • Exchange delivery dates for the same commodity at a negoti-
• The nature of disagreement between counterparties on trans- ated value.
actional details. • Exchange a commodity in one location for the same com-
• The possibility that a deal is directly linked to an offsetting modity at another location at a negotiated value.
transaction that is not publicly known, for example a “wash
trade” which has the purpose of influencing the published Bids and offers
price. If a sufficient number of bids and offers populate the market, then in
• The impact of non-market factors on price or volume, includ- most cases the highest bid and the lowest offer can be assumed to
ing distressed delivery, credit issues, scheduling issues, define the boundaries between which a deal could be transacted.
demurrage, or containment.
Comparative metrics
Source tests The relative values between compared commodities are readily
• The credibility of the explanation provided for the outlying discussed in the market and can be discovered through dialogue
nature of the transaction. with market participants. These discussions are the precursor to
• The track record of the source. Sources will be deemed more negotiation and conclusion of transactions.
credible if they
• Regularly provide transaction data with few errors. • Comparison to the same commodity in another market centre.
• Provide data by Argus’ established deadline. • Comparison to a more actively traded but slightly different
• Quickly respond to queries from Argus reporters. specification commodity in the same market centre.
• Have staff designated to respond to such queries. • Comparison to the same commodity traded for a different
• How close the information receipt is to the deadline for delivery timing.
information, and the impact of that proximity on the validation • Comparison to the commodity’s primary feedstock or primary
process. derived product(s).
• Comparison to trade in the same commodity but in a different
Assessment guidelines modality (as in barge versus oceangoing vessel) or in a dif-
When insufficient, inadequate, or no transaction information exists, ferent total volume (as in full cargo load versus partial cargo
or when Argus concludes that a transaction based methodology will load).
not produce representative prices, Argus reporters will make an as-
sessment of market value by applying intelligent judgment based on Volume minimums and transaction data thresholds
a broad array of factual market information. Reporters must use a Argus typically does not establish thresholds strictly on the basis
high degree of care in gathering and validating all market data used of a count of transactions, as this could lead to unreliable and non-
in determining price assessments, a degree of care equal to that representative assessments and because of the varying transporta-
applying to gathering and validating transactions. The information tion infrastructure found in all commodity markets. Instead, mini-
used to form an assessment could include deals done, bids, offers, mum volumes are typically established which may apply to each
tenders, spread trades, exchange trades, fundamental supply and transaction accepted, to the aggregate of transactions, to transac-
demand information and other inputs. tions which set a low or high assessment or to other volumetrically
relevant parameters.
The assessment process employing judgment is rigorous, replica-
ble, and uses widely accepted valuation metrics. These valuation For price assessments used to settle derivatives, Argus will seek to
metrics mirror the process used by physical commodity traders establish minimum transaction data thresholds and when no such

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threshold can be established Argus will explain the reasons. These found on our website at www.argusmedia.com. Included in this
thresholds will often reflect the minimum volumes necessary to policy are restrictions against staff trading in any energy commodity
produce a transaction-based methodology, but may also establish or energy related stocks, and guidelines for accepting gifts. Argus
minimum deal parameters for use by a methodology that is based also has strict policies regarding central archiving of email and
primarily on judgment. instant messenger communication, maintenance and archiving of
notes, and archiving of spreadsheets and deal lists used in the price
Should no transaction threshold exist, or should submitted data fall assessment process. Argus publishes prices that report and reflect
below this methodology’s stated transaction data threshold for any prevailing levels for open-market arms length transactions (please
reason, Argus will follow the procedures outlined elsewhere in this see the Argus Global Compliance Policy for a detailed definition of
document regarding the exercise of judgment in the price assess- arms length).
ment process.
Consistency in the assessment process
Transparency Argus recognises the need to have judgment consistently applied
Argus values transparency in energy markets. As a result, where by reporters covering separate markets, and by reporters replacing
available, we publish lists of deals in our reports that include price, existing reporters in the assessment process. In order to ensure
basis, counterparty and volume information. The deal tables allow this consistency, Argus has developed a programme of training and
subscribers to cross check and verify the deals against the prices. oversight of reporters. This programme includes:
Argus feels transparency and openness is vital to developing confi-
dence in the price assessment process. • A global price reporting manual describing among other
things the guidelines for the exercise of judgment
Swaps and forwards markets • Cross-training of staff between markets to ensure proper holi-
Argus publishes forward assessments for numerous markets. These day and sick leave backup. Editors that float between markets
include forward market contracts that can allow physical delivery to monitor staff application of best practices
and swaps contracts that swap a fixed price for the average of a • Experienced editors overseeing reporting teams are involved
floating published price. Argus looks at forward swaps to inform in daily mentoring and assisting in the application of judgment
physical assessments but places primary emphasis on the physical for illiquid markets
markets. • Editors are required to sign-off on all price assessments each
day, thus ensuring the consistent application of judgment.
Publications and price data
Ammonia prices are published in the Argus Ammonia report. Review of methodology
Subsets of these prices appear in other Argus market reports and The overriding objective of any methodology is to produce price as-
newsletters in various forms. The price data are available independ- sessments which are reliable and representative indicators of com-
ent of the text-based report in electronic files that can feed into vari- modity market values and are free from distortion. As a result, Argus
ous databases. These price data are also supplied through various editors and reporters are regularly examining our methodologies
third-party data integrators. The Argus website also provides access and are in regular dialogue with the industry in order to ensure that
to prices, reports and news with various web-based tools. All Argus the methodologies are representative of the market being assessed.
prices are kept in a historical database and available for purchase. This process is integral with reporting on a given market. In addition
Contact your local Argus office for information. to this ongoing review of methodology, Argus conducts reviews of
all of its methodologies and methodology documents on at least an
A publication schedule is available at www.argusmedia.com annual basis.

Corrections to assessments Argus market report editors and management will periodically and
Argus will on occasion publish corrections to price assessments as merited initiate reviews of market coverage based on a qualita-
after the publication date. We will correct errors that arise from cleri- tive analysis that includes measurements of liquidity, visibility of
cal mistakes, calculation errors, or a misapplication of our stated market data, consistency of market data, quality of market data and
methodology. Argus will not retroactively assess markets based on industry usage of the assessments. Report editors will review:
new information learned after the assessments are published. We
make our best effort to assess markets based on the information we • Appropriateness of the methodology of existing assessments
gather during the trading day assessed. • Termination of existing assessments
• Initiation of new assessments.
Ethics and compliance
Argus operates according to the best practices in the publishing The report editor will initiate an informal process to examine viability.
field, and maintains thorough compliance procedures throughout This process includes:
the firm. We want to be seen as a preferred provider by our sub-
scribers, who are held to equally high standards, while at the same • Informal discussions with market participants
time maintaining our editorial integrity and independence. Argus • Informal discussions with other stakeholders
has a strict ethics policy that applies to all staff. The policy can be • Internal review of market data

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Should changes, terminations, or initiations be merited, the report tion with the Argus Houston office) and included in the Argus North
editor will submit an internal proposal to management for review American Fertilizer report which is published from Argus’ Houston
and approval. Should changes or terminations of existing assess- office on a Thursday (CST).
ments be approved, then formal procedures for external consulta-
tion are begun. Argus also provides market updates which provide real-time deals,
pricing information and other market news affecting fertilizer sup-
Changes to methodology ply, demand and pricing. These are produced on an ad hoc basis.
Formal proposals to change methodologies typically emerge out of There is no minimum number of daily updates, and the frequency
the ongoing process of internal and external review of the meth- reflects market liquidity and the timing of other market events. These
odologies. Formal procedures for external consultation regarding are sent as email alerts to subscribers and also appear on the
material changes to existing methodologies will be initiated with an Argus Direct website.
announcement of the proposed change published in the relevant
Argus report. This announcement will include: Price assessments reflect the last seven days of business, with infor-
mation gathered Friday morning through to Thursday at 5pm (London
• Details on the proposed change and the rationale time). While all information and trades are taken into account, in peri-
• Method for submitting comments with a deadline for submis- ods of high volatility, assessments are weighed towards trading activity
sions later in the week or at the end of the Thursday of the assessment.
• For prices used in derivatives, notice that all formal comments
will be published after the given consultation period unless
submitter requests confidentiality. General methodology

Argus will provide sufficient opportunity for stakeholders to analyse The Argus editorial fertilizer team consists of specialised and highly
and comment on changes, but will not allow the time needed to experienced editors based in the UK who work closely with our global
follow these procedures to create a situation wherein unrepresenta- network of correspondents in Singapore, Beijing, Delhi, Houston, Mos-
tive or false prices are published, markets are disrupted, or market cow and other parts of the world to produce weekly market reports.
participants are put at unnecessary risk. Argus will engage with
industry throughout this process in order to gain acceptance of pro- The team surveys a wide variety of market participants during the
posed changes to methodology. Argus cannot however guarantee course of the week, from traders to producers to buyers as well as
universal acceptance and will act for the good order of the market other analysts. As regards pricing, editors work to confirm business
and ensure the continued integrity of its price assessments as an that has been done, as well as firm bids and offers. The goal is to
overriding objective. cross check transactions with all participants wherever possible.

Following the consultation period, Argus management will com-

mence an internal review and decide on the methodology change. Assessing price ranges
This will be followed by an announcement of the decision, which
will be published in the relevant Argus report and include a date for Ammonia prices are assessed in various regions, countries and
implementation. For prices used in derivatives, publication of stake- within countries on a free on board (fob) basis in the main export
holders’ formal comments that are not subject to confidentiality and regions and on a cost and freight (cfr) basis in the main destination
Argus’ response to those comments will also take place. markets. Deals, bids and offers must be considered repeatable to
be reflected in the assessments.
Introduction
The report seeks to determine price ranges in which transactions
Argus publishes the Argus Ammonia report once a week on a Thurs- are taking place or in which transactions could have taken place
day evening in the UK (London time). The report contains a variety between a willing buyer and seller. In markets that periodically lack
of prices and market commentary on international bulk shipments of liquidity, Argus may assess price ranges based on judgement, in
anhydrous ammonia. view of market discussions with buyers and sellers.

The assessment are achievable prices given prices paid in end

Publication frequency and assessment timing user markets, and appropriate netbacks from the latest deals (using
fixtures or indicative freight rates), balanced against a seller’s order
The weekly report is published 51 weeks of the year. The report is book and propensity to sell.
not published for one week during the Christmas holiday period
in the UK in late December. A publication schedule is available at When there is sufficient liquidity and deals data is deemed reliable
www.argusmedia.com and representative, the price range will be defined on the low and
the high end of confirmed deals concluded throughout the trad-
Specific pricing references in the US (US Gulf domestic barge, ing week. These deals must meet the minimum volumes and strict
Tampa cfr and US Gulf) are assessed in London (after consulta- delivery timescales, as well as specifications as laid down in this

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methodology. Wherever possible, Argus seeks to validate all deals Lot and cargo sizes
from buyers and sellers.
For international trade, the minimum lot size used for consideration
Information on transactions, bids and offers that lie outside the and inclusion in the relevant price range is 5,000 tonnes of ammo-
specifications of timing, size, location and quality may be used nia. The exception is prices quoted in the US domestic market for
in assessing price ranges, but data on deals that lie within these which the price is indicative of one barge, assumed to be carrying a
specifications is given most weight. minimum of 1,500st, with no set maximum number of barges. There
may be occasions when a barge is loaded with less quantity for
Where there has been no discoverable business in a week for a reasons of low draft levels, but this will be explained fully in the text.
specific pricing point, prices are usually held at the previous week’s
range. However, in the absence of verified high or low deals, Argus Ammonia is explosive and needs to be refrigerated for safe storage
also reserves the right to make an assessment of the range based and transportation. Accordingly, LPG tankers are used for its trans-
on what deals could have been achieved within that time frame portation and costs are usually higher than for other fertilizers. There
based on market fundamentals. are predominantly two vessel sizes used for transporting ammonia
deepsea: 23,400t cargoes and 40,000t cargoes.

Distressed trades and disruptions to trade

Products and specifications
From time to time, Argus may report on deals which we define as
‘distressed cargoes’. These are either cargoes that are sold below Anyhdrous ammonia is a liquid bulk fertilizer containing a minimum
the prevailing market price in order to make a quick sale or reflect 99.5pc ammonia and maximum 0.5pc water/moisture content by
the sale of damaged or off-specification goods. weight while maximum mass concentration of oil is 10ppm. Am-
monia is fully refrigerated at about -33°C. It is produced through a
Argus may also report on trades that involve an unusually high freight chemical reaction between water, hydrogen and methane. This re-
payment by one of the counterparties related to delays in the issuance action requires a large amount of energy which is typically provided
of letters of credit, a sudden change to the destination port, or the inclu- in the form of natural gas.
sion in the contract of an unusual timing requirement. Argus reserves
the right to exclude such transactions from its assessment process. Ammonia is predominantly used for downstream production of fer-
tilizers, for direct fertilizer application on crops and for non-fertilizer,
If trade is disrupted from a specific pricing point because of prolonged industrial use.
production outages, export bans, or other reasons it is omitted from
regional price points, or assessed in relation to prices in similar regions. Please note that some industrial users sometimes require less moisture
and oil content, but this cannot always be guaranteed by suppliers.

Spot and formula pricing Price guide — how prices are defined

Spot pricing refers to specific cargoes sold that are scheduled to Fob
load within 40 days of the sale being agreed. These prices are cash
prices, i.e. net of any credit. Baltic
Assessed based on spot sales out of Ventspils (on the Baltic Sea)
Formula pricing is an arrangement where a buyer and seller agree in and Sillamae (on the Gulf of Finland/Baltic Sea).
advance on the price to be paid for a product delivered in the future,
based upon a pre-determined calculation, sometimes utilising Pivdenny
published prices. Given that the exact nature of the calculation or Assessed based on spot sales, or by using netbacks on cfr ship-
the agreement between the parties is private and confidential, and if ments to major importing markets such as Europe and north Africa.
the deal is considered a one-off (i.e not repeatable) then calculated
netbacks are not used in formulation of a spot price range. North Africa
Assessed based on spot sales from Algeria and netbacks from
However, if a buyer and seller use this method of pricing for multiple destination markets.
transactions on a specific trade route, then the editor may use the
deal in formulating a spot price range using current known cfr levels, Middle East
domestic prices in the destination country and indicative freight rates. Trade in Iranian material may be considered for inclusion in the as-
sessment if done at prices representative of the region.

Units US Gulf (domestic barge)

See Ammonia Nola barge fob in the Argus North American Fertilizer
All prices are assessed in US $/tonne (t), apart from the US domes- methodology.
tic barge reference, which is priced in US $/short ton (st).

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Caribbean/US Gulf China

Assessed based on spot sales out of Trinidad and Tobago, Ven- Assessed based on spot/contract business where available or using
ezuela and the US Gulf. Where no new spot business has been a combination of fob prices and freight rates.
concluded, the assessment will include netbacks from various
destination markets. Turkey
Assessed based on spot/contract business where available or using
Caribbean (Tampa netback) a combination of fob prices and freight rates.
Calculated as the cfr Tampa price assessment less an assessed
freight rate for a 23,000-40,000t vessel travelling between Trinidad Tampa
and Tobago and Tampa. Assessed on a $/t cfr Tampa, Florida basis. The price is an assess-
ment of the monthly contract settlement between US phosphate
Southeast Asia and Australia spot producer Mosaic and its global ammonia supplier Yara for imported
Assessed based on spot sales out of Indonesia, Malaysia and Aus- ammonia vessels during the designated month of the contract. The
tralia. In the absence of new spot activity, the price is assessed based price serves as a key benchmark for other supply contracts which link
on information on spot trades done for delivery to east Asia and India. to the monthly settlement for both fertilizer and industrial consumers
in the US Gulf and ammonia producers in the Caribbean.
Southeast Asia and Australia contract
Assessed based on the latest contract sales out of Indonesia, Malaysia The Tampa price is typically settled a week or two before the new
and Australia. In the absence of new activity, the prices are assessed using month, and the Argus Ammonia report immediately publishes the
information on contracts agreed for delivery to east Asia and India. price upon confirmation from the counterparties. Occasionally, other
spot cargoes are sold into Tampa at a different spot price to the
Cfr monthly contract price. This price will be included in assessing the
range for the Tampa cfr assessment.
Northwest Europe
The northwest Europe price is reported independently as two separate US Gulf
prices. The duty unpaid price is of material subject to import duty that See Ammonia US Gulf cfr in the Argus North American Fertilizer
has not been paid at the time of trade. The duty paid/duty free price is methodology.
of material either not subject to import duty or of material for which the
import duty has been paid.
Freight
Both prices are assessed on spot/contract business where avail-
able; otherwise these are assessed using a combination of fob Freight rates are assessed as a range and include information col-
prices and freight rates from Pivdenny, the Baltic and the Caribbean. lected over the course of the trading week.

North Africa Unless noted, assessments are for 23,000t cargoes that will load
Assessed based on spot/contract business where available or using within 30-40 days. Freight rates are assessed by surveying freight
a combination of fob prices and freight rates. providers and buyers of spot freight, maintaining a balance between
types of market participants.
India
Assessed based on spot/contract business where available. The Freight rates are published for:
contracts are either between producers and end-users or between
a trader and the end-user. Prices are agreed under formula, many • Pivdenny-northwest Europe
of which are based on published Middle East fob prices plus freight, • Pivdenny-Morocco
and agreed with credit terms of 30-180 days. • Pivdenny-north Turkey (10,000-15,000t)
• Pivdenny-south Turkey (10,000-15,000t)
In the absence of spot business, active netbacks from the Middle • Baltic-northwest Europe
East and Indonesia are included. • Ras al Khair-South Korea
• Ras al Khair-west coast India
East Asia (excluding Taiwan) • Ras al Khair-east coast India
Assessed based on spot/contract business and/or a combination • Middle East-east Coast India (10,000-15,000t)
of fob prices and freight rates. The range includes all east Asian • Middle East-west Coast India (10,000-15,000t)
markets apart from Taiwan. • Point Lisas-east Asia
• Point Lisas-US Gulf
Taiwan • Point Lisas-northwest Europe
Assessed based on contract or spot business. In the absence of • Point Lisas-Morocco
new business, the price is assessed by using a combination of fob • Indonesia-east Asia
prices and freight rates.

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Ammonia cost of production

A cost of production calculation based on a formula using the calculated

average for the TTF month ahead gas price and factoring in additional
processing and operations costs. This calculation is reviewed annually.

Green ammonia

Delivered northwest Europe

The calculated price of ammonia produced in the Mideast Gulf and
delivered to northwest Europe.

A generic Mideast Gulf production facility using alkaline electroly-

sis is modelled for hydrogen production. Hydrogen costs assume
$1,461/kW capital expenses (capex), operating and maintenance
costs of 1.6pc of capex, 30pc utilisation rate at 67pc efficiency,
electricity priced at $25/MWh and water at $1/t.

Ammonia production assumes $1,622/t ammonia/yr capital ex-

penses, operating and maintenance costs of 3.3pc of capex and an
85pc utilisation rate.

Freight costs from the Mideast Gulf to northwest Europe are as-
sessed each month. Model assumptions are reviewed at least
semi-annually.

The model is not intended to represent any specific production

facility.

Natural gas prices

Henry Hub ($/mn Btu)

A weekly average of closing prices for Henry Hub day-ahead gas
published in Argus Natural Gas Americas. The Henry Hub is one
of the main pricing points for natural gas in the US market. See the
Argus Natural Gas Americas methodology for more information.

TTF month ahead ($/mn Btu)

A weekly average of closing prices for TTF front-month gas pub-
lished in Argus European Natural Gas. The TTF is one of the main
pricing points for natural gas in northwest Europe. See the Argus
European Natural Gas methodology for more information.

Marine fuel equivalent prices

Argus Ammonia includes the cfr northwest Europe (duty unpaid)

spot ammonia price converted to $/mn Btu and $/t MGO and $/t
VLSFO marine-fuel equivalents for comparison with the price of
conventional bunker fuels.

See the Argus Marine Fuels methodology.

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