CH 10
CH 10
CH 10
Economic Instability
10
CHAPTER
Questioning the Classical Position and
the Self-Regulating Economy
▪ John Maynard Keynes, an English economist, changed how
many economists viewed the economy.
▪ And if, at a given price level, total spending falls, so will aggregate
demand. In other words, according to Keynes, aggregate demand
could fall if saving increases.
Keynes’s Criticism of Say’s Law in a
Money Economy
Keynes’s Criticism of Say’s Law in a
Money Economy
▪ The classical economists believed that saving and investment
depend on the interest rate.
Expenditure Plans
The components of aggregate expenditure sum to real
GDP.
That is,
Y = C + I + G + X – M.
Two of the components of aggregate expenditure,
consumption and imports, are influenced by real GDP.
So there is a two-way link between aggregate expenditure
and real GDP.
Fixed Prices and Expenditure Plans
YD = Y – T
Fixed Prices and Expenditure Plans
When consumption
expenditure is less than
disposable income, there
is saving.
Fixed Prices and Expenditure Plans
𝐶 = 𝐶0 + 𝑏(𝑌𝐷) = 𝐶0 + 𝑏 𝑌 − 𝑇
= 𝐶0 + 𝑏 𝑌 − 𝑡𝑌 = 𝐶0 + 𝑏 1 − 𝑡 𝑌
Here, 𝐶0 denotes autonomous consumption, 𝑏denotes MPC and
𝑡denotes tax rate.
Fixed Prices and Expenditure Plans
Import Function
In the short run, imports are influenced primarily by real
GDP.
The marginal propensity to import (𝒎) is the fraction of
an increase in real GDP spent on imports.
If an increase in real GDP of $1 trillion increases imports
by $0.25 trillion, the marginal propensity to import is 0.25.
𝑀 = 𝑚𝑌
Real GDP with a Fixed Price Level
▪ Assume that business firms hold their optimum inventory level ($300
billion worth of goods), that they produce $10.4 trillion worth of goods
(GDP = $10.4 trillion), and that the four sectors buy $10.6 trillion worth of
goods (Planned expenditure = $10.6 trillion).
▪ How can individuals buy more than businesses produce? Firms make up
the difference out of inventory. In our example, inventory levels fall from
$300 billion to $100 billion because individuals purchase $200 billion
more of goods than firms produced (to be sold). This is why firms
maintain inventories in the first place: to be able to meet an unexpected
increase in sales. The unexpected fall in inventories signals to firms that
they have underproduced.
▪ Consequently, they increase the quantity of goods they produce. The rise
in production causes Real GDP to rise, in the process bringing Real GDP
closer to the (higher) real output that the four sectors are willing and able
to buy. Ultimately, GDP will equal Aggregate Planned Expenditure.
Real GDP with a Fixed Price Level
Equilibrium Expenditure
Equilibrium expenditure is the
level of aggregate expenditure
that occurs when aggregate
planned expenditure equals real
GDP.
This Figure illustrates equilibrium
expenditure.
Equilibrium occurs at the point at
which the AE curve crosses the
45° line in part (a).
Equilibrium occurs when there are
no unplanned changes in
business inventories in part (b).
Real GDP with a Fixed Price Level
Convergence to Equilibrium
From Below Equilibrium
If aggregate planned
expenditure exceeds real GDP,
there is an unplanned decrease
in inventories.
To restore inventories, firms
hire workers and increase
production.
Real GDP increases.
Real GDP with a Fixed Price Level
If aggregate planned
expenditure equals real
GDP (the AE curve
intersects the 45° line), …
there is no unplanned
change in inventories.
And firms maintain their
current production.
Real GDP remains
constant.
The Multiplier
𝐴𝐸 = 𝐶0 + 𝐼 + 𝐺 + 𝑋 + 𝑏 1 − 𝑡 − 𝑚 𝑌
→ 𝐴𝐸 = 𝐴 + 𝑒𝑌
In equilibrium, 𝑌 = 𝐴𝐸
Therefore, in equilibrium,
𝑌 = 𝐴 + 𝑒𝑌
1
→ 𝑌= 𝐴
1−𝑒
∆𝑌 1
→ =
∆𝐴 1 − 𝑒
The Multiplier
▪ Second, for the multiplier to increase Real GDP, idle resources must
exist at each spending round. After all, if Real GDP is increasing
(output is increasing) at each spending round, idle resources must
be available to be brought into production. If they are not available,
then increased spending will simply result in higher prices without an
increase in Real GDP. Simply put, GDP will increase, but not Real
GDP.
The Simple Keynesian Model in the AD–
AS Framework
Shifts in the Aggregate Demand Curve
▪ Now, we will assume a closed economy (no export or import) to be
consistent with the Text.
In terms of AD and AS, the essence of the simple Keynesian model can
be summarized in five statements: