Stochastic Epidemic Modelling
Stochastic Epidemic Modelling
Stochastic Epidemic Modelling
( )
Table 7: Conditions that control the epidemic
Condition: Effect on spread of epidemic Effect on rate of infection spread (I')
S > b/ac EPIDEMIC SPREADS I' > 0
S < b/ac EPIDEMIC STOPS SPREADING I' < 0
The threshold here is b/ac, i.e., if we started with fewer than b/a no. of susceptible, then the epidemic would
have never spread.
Our objective is to minimize the disease spread and this can be done in the following ways:
We need to minimize the transmission coefficient ac
We need to reduce no. of susceptible
We need to increase b.
IV. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The outcome of this project is the plot that shows infection spread as function of number of simulations. This
plot is essential for analysis and predicting how the epidemic grows over the population.
Figure 18: Effect of change in number of nodes affected initially (when neighbors are distributed normally)
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Figure 19: Effect of change in no. of nodes affected initially (when neighbors are distributed skew normally)
Table 10: Relation between number of nodes initially infected and spread
Figure 20: Effect of change in time taken for recovery (when neighbors are distributed uniformly)
Figure 21: Effect of change in time taken for recovery (when neighbors are distributed normally)
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[352]
e-ISSN: 2582-5208
International Research Journal of Modernization in Engineering Technology and Science
( Peer-Reviewed, Open Access, Fully Refereed International Journal )
Volume:03/Issue:09/September-2021 Impact Factor- 6.752 www.irjmets.com
Figure 22: Effect of change in time taken for recovery (when neighbors are distributed skew normally)
Table 11: Relation between time taken for recovery and spread