The Impact of Coronavirus On Megatrends

THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS
June 2020
INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ CONNECTED CONSUMERS
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ MIDDLE CLASS RETREAT
▪ PREMIUMISATION
▪ SHIFTING MARKET FRONTIERS
▪ SHOPPING REINVENTED
CONCLUSION
INTRODUCTION
Scope
▪ COVID-19 has had an unprecedented effect on consumers, one that has hit Disclaimer
rapidly with a devastating impact. This is not only shifting consumer lifestyles Much of the information in this
briefing is of a statistical nature and,
now but will have a long-lasting impact with some behaviours changing while every attempt has been made
permanently. This report explores the impact of COVID-19 on our eight focus to ensure accuracy and reliability,
Euromonitor International cannot be
megatrends, the long-term shifts in consumer behaviour, specifically held responsible for omissions or
highlighting the sub-trends likely to be most affected now and in the future. errors.
Figures in tables and analyses are
▪ Report closing date: 12 May 2020 - the date the report writing stopped calculated from unrounded data and
may not sum. Analyses found in the
▪ Discussions and feedback from our clients are a vital part of all of our research briefings may not totally reflect the
at Euromonitor International. We welcome the chance to continue the companies’ opinions, reader
discretion is advised.
conversation - full contact information for the author(s) can be found at the end
of this report.
The coronavirus (COVID-19)
pandemic has disrupted
consumers’ lives across the
globe and effectively shut down
most economies. The severity of
the crisis will have a long-lasting
effect but how long the crisis
lasts will be a key determinant
on if and how consumer
behaviour will change
permanently and the level of
economic impact. This report
explores the effects of COVID-19
on Euromonitor’s eight focus
megatrends.
© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 3

INTRODUCTION
Leaders harness megatrends to disrupt a market

INTRODUCTION
COVID-19 impact on the drivers shaping consumer behaviour
There are five socioeconomic drivers generating and shaping

consumer megatrends. These long-term shifts explain the ongoing
changes we see in consumer behaviour.
▪ Shifting Economic Power: The COVID-19 pandemic will likely boost
existing global decoupling trends by deepening divides between
global economic partners and allow China to secure its position as
an economic power centre on a par with the US.
▪ Population Change: Lockdowns and economic recessions triggered
by COVID-19 result in a short-term disruption in global migration and
urbanisation trends, while ageing remains an unstoppable change.
▪ Environmental Shifts and Pressures: Consumers are temporarily
shifting awareness away from environmental challenges - such as
climate change, waste or pollution - towards more pressing
socioeconomic issues amid the COVID-19 outbreak. This is having an
impact on ethical purchasing decisions.
▪ Technology: New technologies are creating an upheaval across
consumer-facing companies, making it more challenging for
companies to stay competitive while at the same time elevating
consumer expectations. The COVID-19 crisis put a spotlight on the
pivotal role of technology in how consumers live, work, shop and play.
▪ Changing Values: COVID-19 embeds fear and anxiety resulting in
consumers re-evaluating their values, priorities and behaviour with
some permanent shifts expected.

INTRODUCTION
Key findings
Consumer lifestyles Isolation and social distancing have forced consumers into a cocooning state in which
dramatically changed they are reliant on the internet and digital solutions to work, shop and socialise. Exercise
overnight and learning have moved online as have experiences. Outside essential products and
services, businesses have had to react swiftly, moving online to remain functioning. Taking
a digital-first approach is now critical to survive.
Health and wellness front Already an important priority in consumers’ lifestyles, fear and anxiety have shifted the
of mind for a long time to focus on health and wellness to the top of the pile. Fear of infection has amplified the
come focus on hygiene and immunity, while concerns not just of contamination but also jobs,
finances and family intensify stress and anxiety levels. Health becomes all encompassing
and businesses should assess how they can be a part of this evolving situation.
Shifting consumer values Shock and fear have severely dented consumers’ confidence. As they resurface from
refocus brand purpose to isolation and lockdowns feeling vulnerable, they are reassessing the things they value
those that are useful and most, rejecting excess consumerism in favour of self-sufficiency and support, for each
supportive other and their communities. Those that back the war on COVID-19, keeping citizens safe
and putting people and purpose before profits will be rewarded.
New ways of shopping COVID-19 has changed the way consumers shop from a rapid shift to online and click-
and-collect shopping to when and how they shop. Brands and retailers must rethink
shopping experiences both virtually and in-store to stay relevant.
Cautious consumption as Consumers, worried about COVID-19 resurfacing, economic uncertainty and future
concern about infection employment will be more cautious in their spending, even in emerging and developing
resurgence and recession countries where they have a more positive outlook. As a global recession, expected to be
takes hold the worst since the great depression, looms, businesses will need to focus on the trends
that align most with shifting consumer values and priorities in order to win.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: CONNECTED CONSUMERS
Impact of COVID-19 on Connected Consumers
Definition
▪ Connected consumers use internet-connected devices in order to experience and interact with digital
content and access services. This is a growing phenomenon, with penetration of both the devices
themselves and connected infrastructure spreading first through developed markets and now also growing
rapidly in the developing world. These digital connections are underpinning radical shifts in the way
consumers live, work, shop and play through a nervous system charged with supplying consumers with the
key benefits of convenience, simplicity and knowledge.
Impact of COVID-19
Sub-trend Summary COVID-19 Impact
Lifestyle Change The rapid increase in connections has ushered in speed, Immediate spike
convenience and instant access across all of life. followed by long-term
shift
Digital The number of internet users has more than doubled over Immediate spike
Democratisation the last decade, giving way to a mass participation followed by long-term
technology. shift
Internet of Always-on is the new normal. The coming phase of Immediate spike
Everything connectivity will, however, be a giant leap in terms of followed by long-term
breadth. shift
Digital Balance Consumers became so addicted to this unrestricted access. Immediate drop
In recent years, they have pushed back as they realised followed by slow
they needed more self-control over their digital habits. recovery

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: lifestyle Change
▪ Even before the pandemic, connectivity was so intertwined in consumer life that over half
of connected consumers reported they would be lost without said access according to our
global lifestyles survey in 2020. The internet quickly turned into a lifeline for shut-in
Now: Dealing
with the consumers as they sought to live, work, shop and play through digital channels. Traffic
outbreak through internet exchange points, where networks interconnect, has jumped by as much
as 60% in OECD countries during the crisis.
▪ Even as lockdowns are lifted, potential secondary outbreaks or even prolonged social
distancing will likely lead to consumers retreating to their homes for extended periods of
Post-lockdown: time. Habits that spiked during the crisis, including online shopping, remote learning,
Resurfacing and working from home and streaming entertainment, will likely continue to take place at
recovery higher rates during the post-lockdown period than what occurred in 2019.
▪ This crisis is likely to accelerate the integration of digital alternatives into consumers’ lives
from the way they work to the way they shop. Even before the pandemic, one of the most
profound behavioural changes unfolding in commerce was the shift to digital. As of 2019,
3-10 years later 13% of goods were bought online globally, up from 6% in 2014. The pandemic will
accelerate such shifts as many consumers learn or perfect the skill of online shopping.

MEGATREND IMPACT: CONNECTED CONSUMERS – CORPORATE RESPONSE
Disney: streaming service booms while other businesses decline
▪Shut-in consumers turned to streaming services to battle

boredom during mandated lockdowns. The cord-cutting trend
accelerated during the crisis as consumers switched from
traditional pay television to streaming sites. Netflix reported
during its first quarter earnings report that it saw record traffic
and added more than 15 million new subscribers. Disney+
reported a similar surge in its digital streaming service.
▪While Walt Disney Company reels from the decline of its
theme parks and theatrical businesses, its new streaming
service has been a bright spot for the company. Disney+ has
raced past 50 million paid subscribers in just five months
since launch. This was a threshold that analysts did not
expect it would reach until 2022 and even still one that it took
Netflix 17 years to cross.
▪After launching in the US in November 2019, Disney+ was
rolled out in several Western European markets and India in
March 2020. This expansion into markets where it has a
strong brand will only further boost its subscriber base. The
closure of movie theatres around the world could drive more
sign ups, too. It will be releasing Artemis Fowl, a fantasy film
based on the book of the same name, on the streaming
service in May 2020 instead of in movie theatres.
Image source: Disney.com

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: digital Democratisation
▪ Digital connectivity has been the great equaliser, enabling companies to reach new
geographies and consumers with their offerings. What it means to be connected varies,
due to huge gulfs in income and internet quality. The overnight shift to digital channels by
Now: Dealing
with the consumers during the lockdown exacerbates the digital divide. Children were locked out of
outbreak classrooms due to quarantine restrictions. Not all employees were able to work from
home.
▪ As of 2020, 45% of the global population did not have access to the internet. The
pandemic has been a wake-up call to close the digital divide. Governments and
Post-lockdown: companies are taking measures to mitigate the disproportionate hardships that poor and
Resurfacing and marginalised populations face with this likely to continue into the recovery period. For
recovery example, some mobile operators in Africa are offering access to important sites for free.
▪ By 2030, Euromonitor International projects that 77% of the global population will have
access to the internet. The global pandemic will likely catalyse long-term solutions to
increase internet access for all. Governments will likely work to strengthen remote work, e-
3-10 years later
health and e-learning capacities to ensure consumer lives and economies at large do not
come to a complete standstill in another crisis.

MEGATREND IMPACT: CONNECTED CONSUMERS – CORPORATE RESPONSE
AT&T: joins other mobile operators in keeping world connected
▪As many schools, universities and companies moved to

digital platforms, often for the first time, mobile operators
globally have helped with this transformation. Mobile
operators took measures to manage the significant surge in
traffic. Other operators are offering free access to
collaboration apps, video conferencing tools, training
platforms and important information sites so consumers can
manage their lives during the lockdowns. Operators all
around the world have also joined the fight against COVID-
19. Many, including Deutsche Telekom, Telia and Telenor,
are collaborating with national authorities to use aggregated
and anonymised movement data to anticipate the spread of
coronavirus.
▪AT&T, which provides voice services in more than 200
countries and 34,000 Wi-Fi hotspots, initiated a number of
measures to ensure connectivity. It offered schools 60 days
of unlimited data for laptops, tablets and hotspots. It kept
public Wi-Fi hotspots open to those who need them through
June 2020. It waived late fee payments for consumers
facing financial hardship during the crisis. It also joined a
pledge with other mobile operators in which they promised
to not disconnect residential or small business consumers
Image source: Unsplash who are unable to pay bills due to the crisis.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: ETHICAL LIVING
Impact of COVID-19 on Ethical Living
Definition
▪ Among consumers and businesses, increasing attention is paid to ethics and moral values. This translates
into decisions framed by concerns about the environment, sustainability, animal welfare, production and
labour practices, as well as desires to positively impact communities and people.
Impact of COVID-19
Waste Not, I Reducing, re-using, refilling, repairing, remanufacturing and Immediate drop followed
Want Not recycling are a mantra to many ethical consumers. For some the by a slow recovery
ultimate goal is to produce zero waste.
Transparency Increasing consumers’ appetite for transparency and traceability Immediate spike followed
Rules to take more informed ethical decisions is inspiring companies to by long-term shift
embrace disruptive digital technologies that allow consumers to
track the journey of a product.
Socially Active Consumers are increasingly looking for brands that align with Immediate spike followed
their personal values, allowing them to actively be part of the by long-term shift
solution, while assuaging consumption guilt.
Alternative Consumers are moving away from ingredients and materials Immediate drop followed
Means perceived as less healthy and sustainable towards alternative by normalisation
options that offers more value with less impact on people and the
planet.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: waste not, I want not
▪ Hygiene is top of consumers’ mind as the pandemic temporarily affects green values and
priorities. Consumers are scrutinising product safety while environmental concerns shift to
back of society’s mind for now. Social distancing is affecting consumer sentiment towards
Now: Dealing sharing, renting and reusing, questioning its safety. Demand grows for products and
with the
outbreak services perceived as more hygienic regardless of their environmental impact. Home
deliveries and increasing demand for disposable items are putting extra pressure on waste
collection and recycling infrastructure, with more recyclables going to landfill.
▪ As the virus starts to be contained, ethical consumers will embrace sustainable habits that
they consider safe from a health perspective. Cutting over-consumption and repairing are
two trends that could see a revamp and a revival of reusable. After the pause in the
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and
momentum around reusable items while dealing with COVID-19, consumers will begin to
recovery recover their appetite for products that can be safely washed and sanitised to high
standards between uses.
▪ No negative impact is expected in the war against waste in the long run. Pre-COVID-19
focus on zero waste and circular economy will continue long term, with more safety
3-10 years later measures and regulations in place to ensure the security of reusables and refillable
products.

MEGATREND IMPACT: ETHICAL LIVING – CORPORATE RESPONSE
Refill app: reusable items can be safe and hygienic
▪ Refill is a nationwide scheme providing a network of

points offering the public free tap water in the UK.
Refill app enables consumers to find water on the go,
listing public fountains and local businesses offering
free water refill.
▪ The company is supporting businesses in continuing
to allow the safe use of reusables while pausing the
listing on the app of those businesses that decide to
temporarily stop accepting reusables due to health
concerns.
▪ Over the last few weeks, some airlines, coffee chains
and train companies have banned the use of reusable
containers to prevent contagions during the outbreak.
▪ Social distancing is affecting consumers’ sentiment
towards sharing and reusing, perceived as a potential
means of virus transmission.
▪ As a response to these concerns, Refill launched a
health and hygiene message to consumers,
reassuring them that refilling on the go is safe if
additional hygiene steps are taken.
Image source: Unsplash

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: transparency rules
▪ COVID-19 has emphasised the importance of brand transparency, with consumers

expecting clear communication on how companies are supporting their employees,
Now: Dealing suppliers and local communities during lockdown. With countries taking different
with the approaches to tackle the outbreak, public confidence is suffering. Today, brands have
outbreak much greater responsibility to be transparent, honest and open, disclosing internal
information about their practices.
▪ As the crisis evolves and lockdowns are eased, consumers will start to judge companies
based on whether or not they are delivering on their promises, translating their purpose
and values into actions beyond the outbreak. Post-lockdown, anxiety about a second
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and
wave of contagions will raise consumers’ concerns about the origin and safety of the
recovery products they buy, demanding reliable and accessible information to make safer
purchasing decisions.
▪ Pre-COVID-19 focus on brand transparency will be positively affected and amplified by the
COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses are expected to face ever-increasing public scrutiny on
3-10 years later their practices with digital technologies such as blockchain playing a pivotal role to achieve
the transparency and level of disclosure demanded by consumers and investors..

UK university: fighting COVID-19 with blockchain transparency
▪ Birmingham City University Business School has

developed the Coronavirus Clearance Certificate
(CCC) using blockchain technology.
▪ To be trialled in the UK, the COVID-19 digital safety
certificate aims to protect consumers and suppliers
from COVID-19 risks in supply chains.
▪ It tracks the journey of products, covering all aspects
in the supply chain, from compliance with the highest
public health standards to sustainability, anti-bribery
or modern slavery, while also verifying the level of
supply risk due to COVID-19.
▪ The certificate can be issued to businesses and
products certifying that they have followed the
appropriate steps to mitigate potential risks from
COVID-19 across their supply chain.
▪ With anxiety shifting consumer focus to health and
safety in light of COVID-19, transparency and
traceability have become increasingly important.
▪ This digital innovation could be a game changer in the
future of supply chain management, while also
helping to prevent future outbreaks.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: socially active
▪ With a real sense of greater community spirit and solidarity, citizens are actively involved
in supporting others during social isolation, helping elderly and vulnerable people locally.
Now: Dealing With mass protests on the street banned during lockdown, activism is shifting to the online
with the
outbreak world with digital strikes and virtual lobbying and advocacy aiming to raise awareness and
influence governments, corporations, businesses and the wider society.
▪ As the world starts to reopen after lockdown, emotions will affect purchases with purpose-
driven messaging from brands advocating for a better society resonating strongly with
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and
consumers. Companies that put people before their own business interests will likely be
recovery remembered and rewarded by consumers during and beyond the outbreak.
▪ The pre-COVID-19 trend “purpose over profit” will be positively affected by the pandemic
which has demonstrated the huge impact that purpose-driven companies can have on
society. Going forward, “beyond-profit” business models will be the “new normal” with
3-10 years later
consumers increasingly expecting companies to be a force for good, while not-fit-for-
purpose businesses will struggle to attract and retain employees and consumers.

Ben & Jerry’s: using virtual activism to address forgotten needs
▪Bought by Unilever in 2000, the ice cream company

Ben & Jerry’s is a B-certified corporation that balances
profit with purpose.
▪Known for its activism and philanthropy, the iconic ice
cream maker has decided to continue battling for
those causes that may have taken a back seat amid
the pandemic, such as civil rights and racial injustice.
▪The brand joined the #FreeAndSafe online campaign
aiming to temporarily release incarcerated people to
limit the spread of the virus in the US jail system, while
also advocating for prison reform.
▪With a strong social mission the brand is campaigning
for marijuana legalisation to reduce racial disparities in
cannabis arrests.
▪The pandemic has catapulted brand activism into the
centre of public scrutiny. In response, companies are
shifting emphasis from simply selling a product or
service to genuinely contributing to a real-world
change.
▪Moving forward, consumers will expect brands to be
activists and build a better future for people and the
planet.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: EXPERIENCE MORE
Impact of COVID-19 on Experience More
Definition
▪ Prioritising experiences over things, where consumers engage directly with a product/service, and in return
they receive an enhanced and unique interaction with the brand. Consumers are seeking out authentic,
personalised experiences to suit their individual tastes, preferences and lifestyles. Appealing to the senses
and using technology as an enabler, brands strive to provide a value-added experience.
Impact of COVID-19
Living It - Experience is all about the individual's engagement with a Immediate spike
Interactive product or service that is enjoyable and fun, leading to a strong followed by long-term
emotional connection. A key element of an experience is that it is shift
interactive, and brands are experimenting with different media,
technology, formats, design and delivery.
Reinforced Brands can take a laser sharp view of their product efficacy and Immediate spike in
Benefits incremental benefits, especially where health and wellness is growth followed by
concerned. Incremental benefits, apply innovation or new normalisation
scientific research to deliver beyond core benefits.
Immersive Brands are also exploiting the power of immersive technology to Immediate spike in
weave in a digital element into their storytelling so that growth followed by long
immersion can also take place in the virtual world. Technology term shift
such as virtual reality and AR is increasingly being used to
transport consumers from the real world to an augmented reality
world.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: living it - interactive
▪ Social distancing and self-isolation are the key cornerstones of bringing the global
pandemic under control, leading consumers to seek human interaction online, going
Now: Dealing beyond mere communication but to satisfy the innate need to socialise. Within a matter of
with the
outbreak weeks, all aspects of consumer lifestyles moved online from family catch-ups, e-learning to
remote working and sped up the shift to digital shopping and home delivery.
▪ Already in 2020, 41% of global consumers socialise online according to Euromonitor’s

2020 Lifestyles Survey. The trend for online catch-ups is likely to continue post-lockdown,
as consumers are now more comfortable with video conferencing and uncertainty will
Post-lockdown: keep employers keen to maintain a flexible workforce that can work remotely when
Resurfacing needed. To compete with Zoom, apps such as WhatsApp integrated video call, and
and recovery Facebook launched Portal to ensure not losing out in the latest consumer communication
trend.
▪ Over the longer term, the shift to video calls will become ever more entrenched in
consumers’ daily lives. Education will also increasingly make use of these services as well
3-10 years as medicine and finance, so that consumers’ time is increasingly freed up for fun activities.
later In the longer term, more mixed reality and artificial intelligence will increasingly become
integrated into the design and format of social media apps.

MEGATREND IMPACT: EXPERIENCE MORE – CORPORATE RESPONSE
Zoom: bringing people together online in a crisis
▪Zoom is a video conference calling app with real-time

messaging created in 2011, but has taken off with
consumers globally turning to the app during the
COVID-19 lockdown as human interactions have
shifted online during the global lockdown.
▪A key tactic to defeat COVID-19 was social distancing,
leading to families and friends being separated from
loved ones. Apps such as Zoom and Houseparty have
seen consumers use them for regular family get
togethers, trivia games, cocktail parties, even medical
consultations and counselling. Zoom is part of the
COVID-19 zeitgeist, epitomising the human spirit to
come together at a time of need. The company also
responded to the need for improved security as
remote working and e-learning was ramped up.
▪COVID-19 has caused a monumental shift in
consumer behaviour to socialise online, and
accelerated the trend for interactive, social
experiences.
Image source: Zoom

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: reinforced benefits
▪ COVID-19 led to the collapse of industries that rely on discretionary spending such as
Now: Dealing travel, non-food retailing and luxury goods. During the global lockdown, some brands
with the reviewed their manufacturing and scientific capabilities and repurposed them to aid the
outbreak efforts to fight the pandemic, acting with greater purpose, putting people above profit.
▪ Post-lockdown, once the disease is under control and a vaccine is available, consumers
will slowly return to their old habits of travel and shopping in some form. This move will
Post-lockdown: allow brands to normalise their manufacturing operations to return to their standard lines.
Resurfacing Yet some products and services may remain in play post-COVID-19, due to consumer
and recovery demand and the importance of establishing diversified revenue streams.
▪ Over the long term, operations will normalise completely. However, for brands that took an
active role in the fight against the virus, consumers will demonstrate increasing loyalty to
3-10 years them, recognising that they acted with purpose. This will create a strong emotional
later attachment with brands such as LVMH, Burberry, Carlsberg and Brewdog that helped
during the global pandemic by repurposing their products for the greater good.

Brewdog: putting purpose into practice
▪From its iconoclastic roots, Brewdog is now a global

beer company with a range of craft beers and bars.
▪In response to COVID-19, Brewdog shifted its focus to
manufacturing hand sanitiser in its brewery. The
company already had a strong sustainability focus,
promoting farm to fork local food, removing plastics
from its packaging and establishing local brewery
operations in the US to reduce its carbon footprint.
Pivoting to using its core ingredient of alcohol and
repurposing its facilities was done within two weeks,
with over 100,000 shipments of hand rub, including to
the NHS. The company got creative in how it
distributed the hand rub, using beer bottles. For the
crisis, it rose to the challenge and used its know-how
to make a difference.
▪Getting stuck in for the greater good may not lead to
financial returns in the short term, but will lead to
greater respect and loyalty in the longer term.
Image source: Brewdog

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: immersive
▪ The COVID-19 pandemic has led to travel bans, border closures as well as social and
economic lockdowns across the world in a bid to contain the spread of the virus. This has
Now: Dealing
with the
accelerated the digital trend for immersive experiences, with all types of brands offering
outbreak consumers the chance to enjoy them virtually during the lockdown.
▪ Virtual reality and augmented reality are not new trends, but they have benefited from the
containment of consumers in their homes, forcing them to seek entertainment online.
Post-lockdown: Once restrictions are lifted, social distancing is likely to remain in place which means that
Resurfacing and immersive experiences will remain popular, especially allowing consumers to try before
recovery
they buy, plus establish important health information before they visit physical locations.
▪ The focus will shift from virtual reality and augmented to mixed reality, where consumers
will use technology such as HoloLens to engage with brands and experiences. As
consumers are likely to increasingly work and study from home, mixed reality headsets
3-10 years later
will become the standard over the long term, for engaging online with brands and
socialising online.

Faroe Islands: immersing visitors during the global shutdown
▪The Faroe Islands is an autonomous archipelago in

the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, located between
Scotland and Iceland, under the jurisdiction of
Denmark.
▪Like the rest of the world, the Faroe Islands has
closed its doors to visitors during the COVID-19
pandemic, with the earliest it may reopen being 30
June 2020. The Faroe Islands usually welcomes
around 60,000 visitors per year, and has 10
international flight connections. It has always been
creative with its destination marketing, and during the
COVID-19 crisis, it has introduced remote tourism.
Visitors from around the world are able to remote
control one of the locals with the help of a games
console-style control stick, giving commands to them
such as run or jump while exploring with a Go-Pro
camera.
▪In a world of zero travel, immersive virtual reality
experiences are being offered by destinations,
attractions and hotels to entice future visitors.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: HEALTHY LIVING
Impact of COVID-19 on Healthy Living
Definition
▪ Healthy lifestyle habits, inside and outside the home, are becoming a more normal way of life as concerns
over obesity, food sensitivity and the number of people affected by different types of disease continue to
rise. Furthermore, a more holistic approach to wellness is being adopted which encompasses spiritual and
mental wellbeing, alongside physical health. Continued focus on health and wellbeing entails a wider
lifestyle shift and evolving attitudes towards healthcare, nutrition, beauty, physical activity, and overall self-
improvement. The pursuit of optimal wellness also transpires in continued product development, as well as
technological and digital advancements to fit new consumers’ priorities.
Impact of COVID-19
Preventative Consumers taking greater ownership of their self and Immediate spike
Health conceptualising their health in a longer-term, preventative sense, as followed by long-
opposed to treatment for certain ailments. Technology and digital term shift
activation as key enablers.
Nutritional The adoption of healthier nutritional habits and opting for naturally- Immediate spike
Balance healthy, free-from, functional and “better for you” products. Plant- followed by
based alternatives permeating more prevalent flexitarian diets. normalisation
Health as Facilitating a healthy home and greater adoption of indoor and Immediate spike
Lifestyle outdoor physical activity with health as the new status symbol. followed by long-
Increasing pivots around emotional balance and mental wellbeing. term shift

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: preventative health
▪ As an immediate impact, prioritising the primary aspects of health are being reinforced.
Consumers turn to traditional immune- and energy-boosting products which they trust and
Now: Dealing know best (vitamin C, multivitamins, probiotics, zinc, echinacea, ginger, etc). Demand for
with the easily accessible diagnostic and symptom-tracking solutions, medical guidance and health
outbreak education becomes a core necessity.
▪ The more holistic sense of prevention settles back in, with more pronounced
considerations of chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular, respiratory diseases and
Post-lockdown: diabetes, as well as gut health. Healthy eating, fortified/functional and herbal/botanical
Resurfacing and alternatives become more intrinsic, alongside greater preoccupation with sleep, stress
recovery
and anxiety concerns. The adoption of virtual health technologies accelerates further.
▪ Telemedicine and superior tech-enabled biomarker diagnostics to monitor and safeguard

our health become the norm. A hybrid approach including virtual consultations and in-
clinic appointments for medical support. Scientific proof confirms ultimate credibility.
3-10 years later
Optimal safety, ingredient transparency and supply chain traceability as indispensable
components of propositions. Health becomes a central strategy for every business.

MEGATREND IMPACT: HEALTHY LIVING – CORPORATE RESPONSE
Babylon: COVID-19 Care Assistant reinforces need for immediacy
▪UK-based health tech company Babylon provides “AI-

powered” diagnosis and virtual consultations through
a digital app. The National Health Service in the UK
also uses Babylon to provide its “GP in Hand” service
for real-time appointment bookings with health
practitioners.
▪The COVID-19 Care Assistant was launched in March
2020 as a separate section to its standard services to
provide health information, symptom tracking and
virtual support for those concerned about COVID-19
for free. With its digital-first and consumer-centric
approach, the company plans to expand in the US
market to tap into the growing interest in telemedicine.
▪Just as consumer demand for accessibility, safety and
immediacy of service when it comes to health has
accelerated, so has the openness to use technology
to triage patient needs without face-to-face interaction
among health providers. Despite some contentions
around telehealth as an efficient and true health “care”
solution, as well as issues around reimbursement
policies in the US, using a balanced virtual-physical
Image source: Babylon approach will ultimately drive this format forward and
ease pressures on healthcare systems.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: health as lifestyle
▪ With lockdown measures come more sedentary lifestyles, which impact physical and
mental health. Attention turns to domesticating fitness activities through virtual platforms,
Now: Dealing alongside greater interest in meditation, yoga and sleep and stress management. Home
with the hygiene and at-home therapy become core priorities and healthier cooking habits are a
outbreak natural outcome.
▪ Stay-at-home habits, pre-occupation with hygiene and anxiety over contamination persist.
Wellness as an antidote to uncertainty and lack of control over external factors; self-care
Post-lockdown: as only rescue line of exercising individual control. Brands pivot to prioritising mental
Resurfacing and wellbeing and mood enhancement through new product and service formats, digital
recovery
applications, ingredient formulations and community-driven platforms.
▪ Virtual enablers recreating out-of-home experiences become a fixture of life, while smart
products that allow for easy protection, sanitation and that mitigate contagion (personal
care, home care and design, and fashion) become mainstream. Propositions embedding
3-10 years later emotions and mindfulness prevail. Happiness as the ultimate form of healthy self-
expression. Adoption of technology for emotional therapy and sensorial stimulation
become normality.

MEGATREND IMPACT: HEALTHY LIVING – CORPORATE RESPONSE
Indie Lee: de-stressing benefits and mental wellness content
▪Founder-led US beauty brand Indie Lee offers skin care

products backed by a strong narrative centred around
safety, natural sourcing, and cleanliness of ingredients,
promoting the philosophy of a holistic mindset inclusive
of emotional, physical and spiritual wellbeing. The
product range includes products with “de-stressing” and
“sleep-enhancing” positioning and ingredients.
▪In the context of the current pandemic the brand shifted
focus to driving the conversation of mental wellness and
mindfulness during uncertainty as part of its Instagram
“Mindful Mondays” platform. The brand endorses an all-
important manifesto in the current environment, which
evolves around the prioritisation of community building
and emotional support over profit and selling products as
a sole purpose.
▪With mental health coming to the fore, wellness-
orientated brands, including beauty, will aim to cultivate
the message of mindfulness, calm and comfort as means
to address anxiety and stress and build longer-lasting
engagements with their consumers. A key prerequisite
however, will be to leverage this type of content in an
authentic and meaningful way, mindful of existing
Image source: Indie Lee product portfolio and overall brand equity.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: MIDDLE CLASS RETREAT
Impact of COVID-19 on Middle Class Retreat
Definition
▪ Since the 2008 global financial crisis, developed markets’ middle classes have struggled to maintain their
economic position and lifestyles, as their stagnating incomes fail to keep up with costs of living. Originating
from developed markets, this megatrend encompasses post-recession habits, such as thrift, sharing/renting
instead of buying, and trading down in order to trade up. In emerging and developing countries, despite
rising incomes and expanding middle classes, the behaviour, values and priorities of middle class
consumers are aligned with many of the sub-trends associated with the Middle Class Retreat.
Impact of COVID-19
Fickle Presented with more information and more choice, No impact
Consumers consumers are more fickle and less loyal to brands.
Glorified This sub-trend celebrates the practice of thriftier lifestyles Immediate drop followed
Frugality as consumers create, repair, reuse and resell possessions. by normalisation
The Sharing This sub-trend is all about sharing/renting/borrowing what Immediate drop followed
Middle is needed, instead of buying. by long-term shift
From Having to Consumers are spending more on experiences as they Immediate drop followed
Being prefer to see, feel and do instead of accumulating more by long-term shift
goods.
Thrill of the Deal The thrill of getting a deal can sometimes be just as Immediate drop followed
valuable as the amount of money saved and the product by long-term shift
itself.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: from having to being
▪ Consumers across the globe are adapting to learn, work, eat, play and socialise from
home as for many, lockdowns are enforced or at least self-isolation is recommended.
Now: Dealing
with the
Companies across many industries are striving to keep their businesses alive by
outbreak leveraging technology to reimagine and redesign the experiences on offer.
▪ The future of a range of industries - from aviation and entertainment to sports and
foodservice - will be bleak and uncertain over the next 1-2 years.
▪ Consumers will look forward to spending time with family and friends, seeing, feeling, and
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and doing things outside the home. However, health and hygiene concerns as well as falling
recovery disposable incomes as a result of an economic recession that follows COVID-19 will
affect what they will and can afford to do.
▪ Full recovery can be expected in the long run, even if the adventures, events, and
experiences sought after by middle class consumers may take on different meanings and
3-10 years later
forms.

MEGATREND IMPACT: MIDDLE CLASS RETREAT - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Frame: fitness studios go online
▪ Frame is a chain of London-based fitness studios

established in 2009. It was forced to close its doors
amid the COVID-19 lockdown.
▪ In response to the lockdown, the business
launched Frame Online, an online fitness hub with
a GBP10.99 per month subscription fee that allows
people to keep fit with virtual classes. Frame has
also been creative in using social media. Its
Instagram posts promote a more fun and realistic
image of working out at home than fitness
influencers and encourage people to book classes
that suit their mood rather than feeling pressured
into high-intensity sessions.
▪ Economic recession with job losses, falling
incomes, and uncertain earning prospects means
that it is a tough time to survive for businesses that
are dependent on people having discretionary
spending power. Yet, health and fitness are high
on the agenda for the middle class. By offering
online classes with a friendly feel, Frame has made
solitary fitness sociable and allowed consumers
under lockdown to keep fit.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: thrill of the deal
▪ Non-essential shops, including many online shops, are forced to close. Those retailers
selling essential goods and therefore remaining open have removed deals and multi-buy
Now: Dealing
with the
offers as well as simplifying their product offerings due to supply chain disruptions and
outbreak also to prevent shoppers stockpiling essential items.
▪ Consumers are unlikely to be in the mood to spend as concerns about their jobs and
earning prospects intensify. Economic uncertainty as the threat of a deep recession
Post-lockdown: increases along with falling disposable incomes will drive middle class consumers to
Resurfacing and bargain hunt even more in an effort to optimise their resources, but they will also be more
recovery
cautious and selective in their spending decisions.
▪ Combined with shifting values away from the accumulation of material things and
environmental concerns as well as post-pandemic uncertainty and anxiety, this sub-trend
3-10 years later is unlikely to return to normalisation in that middle class consumers will bargain hunt out
of necessity rather than for the thrill of it.

MEGATREND IMPACT: MIDDLE CLASS RETREAT - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Tesco: reducing product ranges and removing deals
▪Tesco is the UK’s leading supermarket chain. The

company offers both online retailing and brick-and-
mortar supermarkets.
▪In the face of consumers panic buying and stockpiling
food and household products, Tesco restricted the
number of items customers could buy at any time and
it cut back on product ranges, with more than 8,000
groceries pulled from its selection at the end of March.
Tesco also removed all multi-buy deals and in-store
promotions as well as raised prices on hundreds of
products in the wake of the outbreak.
▪Consumers’ purchasing decisions amid the pandemic
are no longer driven or influenced by the search for
bargains and the thrill this brings. In this context,
raising prices, reducing product ranges and removing
special offers can help the retailer control demand,
increase availability, and cover the high costs it
incurred during the pandemic (eg absent employees
due to self-isolation, extra staff, cleaning and
disinfecting costs).

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: PREMIUMISATION
Impact of COVID-19 on Premiumisation
Definition
▪ Slowing volume growth has led brands to seek new ways to drive value expansion. Concentration of wealth
and income has created new demand for high-end offerings. Consumers everywhere demand more
choices and more tiers - from discount and mass to “masstige”, luxury, and beyond - allowing them to
spend more on what matters most. Global mass brands are giving way to niche brands and personal “brand
portfolios”, as consumers at all income levels seek products, services and experiences that reflect their
personal identity.
Impact of COVID-19
Services that Help Stressed-out consumers are spending more on products Immediate drop
and services that free up time and simplify their lives, followed by
while looking for assistance in finding, purchasing, and normalisation
creating the products they need.
Thoughtful While indulgence still commands a premium, it demands Immediate drop
Consumption a reason, as consumers look to justify every expenditure followed by
in a more uncertain age. normalisation
Building a Better Me Older consumers seek to extend their healthy lives, while Immediate drop
younger consumers look to enhance their personal brand. followed by long-term
In each case, there is opportunity in helping consumers to shift
become their “best selves”.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: thoughtful consumption
▪ With most of the world’s consumers trapped at home, all consumption becomes planned
consumption, while spending on physical experiences has largely vanished. Even luxury
Now: Dealing
with the
brands must turn towards serving everyday occasions, bringing a touch of indulgence to
outbreak fearful, spending-averse consumers.
▪ Even as lockdowns end, restrictions on public gatherings and dining will remain in force,
while consumers will remain circumspect about spending and very concerned about
Post-lockdown: safety. Brands able to serve real needs in ways that allow consumers to limit exposure to
Resurfacing and the virus will command a premium, particularly if they do that in a novel way, one more
recovery
affordable than previous eras.
▪ As third party delivery and e-commerce more generally continue to expand, the premium
consumers place on their time and (potentially) time outside the home will only grow. This
3-10 years later will continue to create opportunities for high-end yet-affordable products that bring
beloved out-of-home experiences into consumers’ houses and apartments.

MEGATREND IMPACT: PREMIUMISATION - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Haidilao: bringing hotpot into the home
▪One of China’s largest hotpot chains, Haidilao

has innovated during the pandemic, repackaging
its products for delivery and home preparation.
▪Assisted by China’s well-developed delivery and
online payments infrastructure, many restaurant
chains invested heavily in home meal
replacement during periods of lockdown, with
some, such as Haidilao even expanding into
grocery items.
▪Going forward, more relatively premium
restaurant brands can be expected to move into
this space post- lockdown, particularly as grocery
retailers continue to expand their prepared food
offerings for delivery.
▪For Haidilao, the move could represent a crucial
pivot if further waves of COVID-19 mean long-
term changes to China’s famously social dining
culture.
Image source: Haidilao

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: services that help
▪ The immediate impact of COVID-19 has been to deprioritise convenience, with consumers
looking to trade time for savings and safety. In the near term, many forms of home
Now: Dealing
with the
automation (robotic vacuum cleaners and other devices) will see a significant pullback in
outbreak demand, while delivery and curation services will see a pause in many markets.
▪ As consumers emerge from lockdowns, however, with many traditional spending patterns
in flux - particularly on entertainment, luxury retail, or high-end dining - opportunities will
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and open up for in-home services that allow a certain level of fun, luxury, or personal
recovery connection for consumers who remain relatively housebound.
▪ The trend of out-of-home experiences coming into the home long predates the pandemic;
it will accelerate afterwards. This displacement of (some, not all) out-of-home experiences
3-10 years later by cheaper (yet still premium) in-home experiences, often facilitated by new appliances
and smartphones, will remain a major driver of premiumisation going forward.

MEGATREND IMPACT: PREMIUMISATION - CORPORATE RESPONSE
L’Oréal reshuffles production, with devices driving future sales
▪Like a host of other beauty companies, L’Oréal has

retooled several of its production facilities to produce
hand sanitiser, both as a public contribution and as a
means of continuing production in the face of a
significant pullback in demand for scents and
cosmetics, particularly at the high end with luxury
retail shut down and international travel at a standstill.
▪Going forward, however, it is devices such as the
recently-introduced Perso which could prove
especially valuable. The Perso is a custom beauty
system, mixing skin care products and cosmetics on
demand in a small countertop machine to
specifications created in the Perso mobile app. Users
can take a photo with the app, which is analysed for
skin conditions, wrinkles and other factors. Perso also
analyses local weather and environmental conditions
and includes a range of adjustable user preferences
to create a custom formula, mixed using replaceable
product cartridges. Over time, as demand for beauty
returns, the ability to create a custom product at home
Image source: L’Oréal
will command a growing premium among affluent
consumers.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: SHIFTING MARKET FRONTIERS
Impact of COVID-19 on Shifting Market Frontiers
Definition
▪ As some areas of the globe become over-farmed, over-populated, or otherwise reach their maximum
potential, others gain prominence for their unexploited potential.
Impact of COVID-19

Asian Century Over the next 10 years, Asia will evolve as the global Immediate spike followed
leader in population, production and consumption. The by normalisation
region will attract growing attention from global companies,
for many of which Asia will become the key market.
Africa Rising Africa is another high-potential area with many countries Immediate spike followed
growing over 10% per annum. When Asia starts slowing by normalisation
down, Africa will be the most promising market globally.
China’s Mid-Size With market saturation and competition intensifying in Immediate spike followed
Cities Boom China’s major cities, businesses should gradually shift their by normalisation
interest to fast-growing mid-sized cities.
Arctic Opening This will benefit global mining, shipping and tourism Immediate drop followed
industries. by normalisation
The Space Space is the final frontier for some sectors, particularly Immediate drop followed
Economy mining and travel. by normalisation

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: Asian century
▪ First to encounter COVID-19 and being the most populous region , Asia has a relatively
low number of cases and deaths. South Korea and Hong Kong for example appear to
have controlled the virus outbreak even when relaxing COVID-19-related restrictions. As a
Now: Dealing result, Asia Pacific is forecast to increase its share of global consumer expenditure by 1.2
with the percentage points in constant terms to hit 30% in 2020, a strong performance when
outbreak
compared to an increase of its share by just 0.7 percentage points during the financial
crisis in 2008.
▪ Major Asian economies are expected to weather the COVID-19 economic recession
better compared to their Western counterparts due to better managed outbreaks and
lesser losses in consumer income. As Europe and the US each take a major blow of
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and around 6-7% decline in consumer expenditure in 2020, Asia’s consumer expenditure will
recovery only flatten in 2020 and rebound in 2021. As a result, in 2022 Asia is forecast to become
the largest consumer market globally.
▪ Over 2022-2040, Asia is expected to further increase its share of global consumer
expenditure by around 0.5 percentage points per annum on average. By 2040, Asia will
3-10 years later
account for 40% of global consumer expenditure.

MEGATREND IMPACT: SHIFTING MARKET FRONTIERS - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Coca-Cola Bottlers Philippines: ad budget repurposed to fight COVID-19
▪Coca-Cola Bottlers Philippines is the leading

carbonates company in the country with a 62% off-
trade value share in 2019. The demand for
carbonates in the Philippines and globally is likely to
flatten due to decreasing consumer expenditure in
2020. Moreover the market will pose challenges in
terms of decline of on-trade sales and changing
consumer preferences towards value offerings and
bulk packaging.
▪At the end of March 2020, Coca-Cola Bottlers
Philippines announced that the company will revert all
of its commercial advertising space and budget to
help the most COVID-19-affected communities. This
will amount to almost USD3 million. The news was
vey well received by local consumers.
▪Although facing flattening demand and other
challenges, companies should think creatively and
use the funds available in more effective ways.
Repurposing some of the budget lines can increase
brand awareness and help fight COVID-19 at the
same time.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: Africa rising
▪ Africa remains one of the least COVID-19 affected regions in the world and to date has a
relatively low number of deaths and confirmed cases. This is in part due to many African
countries being quick to close their borders to contain the virus as it witnessed the spread
Now: Dealing in other regions. Moreover, Africa had previous experience in fighting multiple Ebola
with the
outbreak
outbreaks in recent years, so the COVID-19 threat was not treated lightly and some of the
infrastructure and strategies already in place were redirected immediately to fighting the
new virus.
▪ Until now, Africa managed to contain the pandemic, but uncertainty remains high. The
region has the poorest healthcare system globally and is particularly vulnerable to spread
of the virus after lockdown measures are lifted. However, Africa at the same time has a
Post-lockdown:
Resurfacing and very young population thus it is likely the death rates will be lower than elsewhere in the
recovery world. If managed effectively, the region could get back on usual track quicker than other
parts of the world.
▪ Africa will remain a key growth area for consumer markets. Over 2020-2040, 11 out of 20
of the fastest-growing consumer markets will be in Africa. The region is forecast to record
the fastest population, income and consumer expenditure growth, although it will remain
3-10 years later
the most challenging area globally in terms of underdeveloped infrastructure and market
complexity.

MEGATREND IMPACT: SHIFTING MARKET FRONTIERS - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Safaricom: free mobile money transactions to curb cash usage
▪Safaricom is the leading mobile operator in Kenya.

The company also operates the largest mobile money
platform in the country M-Pesa.
▪In March 2020, as a response to COVID-19 spread
Safaricom announced that all person-to-person mobile
transactions under KES1,000 will be free for at least
90 days. The company additionally doubled daily
money transfer limits for small and medium-sized
enterprises.
▪At the end of April, Safaricom and Visa announced a
deal that will connect M-Pesa's 24 million users and
173,000 local merchants with Visa's 61 million
merchants and three billion cards. Although the deal
still needs regulatory approval, it marks the integration
of M-Pesa into the global payment system.
▪The COVID-19 pandemic and changing consumer
reality provide opportunities for companies to boost
their service usage and profile. Safaricom is an
example of such a company - showing that it can
share its profits with clients in difficult times and at the
same time improve its offering. In turn clients will
appreciate the company now and in the future.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
MEGATREND IMPACT: SHOPPING REINVENTED
Impact of COVID-19 on Shopping Reinvented
Definition
▪ How we buy goods and services is constantly in flux as economic and technological realities change every
day for businesses and consumers. Shifting values and access to the internet have created a great deal of
new competition for customers. Consumers are now making purchases across many different platforms
and merchants must be prepared to engage with them anytime and anywhere, especially as buying habits
shift from goods to services. The ideal customer journey weaves a brand into the entire experience,
providing value before, during, and after the purchase, converting a transaction into a relationship.
Impact of COVID-19
Experiential Retailers continue to innovate and find fresh ways to Immediate drop followed by
Shopping engage consumers and increase footfall. normalisation
Alternative Tech capabilities are allowing for large-scale, formalised Immediate drop followed by
Models access to economy services at the same time as normalisation
consumer interest in minimalism and sustainability
grows.
Checkout and Across markets, consumers expect the payment and Immediate spike in growth
Fulfilment fulfilment of an order to be seamless. followed by long-term shift
Reimagined

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: experiential shopping
▪ In-store experiences have ground to a halt as non-essential stores worldwide have

Now: Dealing temporarily closed and as essential stores prioritise employee and shopper safety. Some
with the brands have begun to experiment with virtual experiences, either recreating in-person
outbreak events via teleconferencing software or using new tech, such as augmented reality.
▪ While consumer interest in social events might return as isolation measures ease, it will
take considerably longer for shoppers to feel comfortable with more intimate experiences,
Post-lockdown: such as trying on products or receiving assistance from a store employee. Companies
Resurfacing and should think about how experiences can be adapted to allow more physical space
recovery
between customers and employees.
▪ While consumer comfort with in-person experiences will recover over the long term, the
advantage will go to brands and companies that give shoppers the option to engage in
3-10 years later technology-powered experiential activities in addition to in-person features. This will
empower consumers to engage with brands while maintaining their comfort levels.

MEGATREND IMPACT: SHOPPING REINVENTED - CORPORATE RESPONSE
Napa Valley Vintners: offering virtual wine tasting sessions
▪The Napa Valley Vintners is an association

representing the wine industry in Napa, California,
with approximately 550 winery members. Tasting
rooms, an important source of wine club sales, have
been temporarily closed due to COVID-19. Once
businesses may reopen, wineries may still face
challenges due to low levels of tourism and slow
restaurant sales.
▪Napa Valley Vintners has been working to expand and
promote its virtual winery events to offer consumers
safe ways to experience wine and to promote its
members, many of whom are small businesses
without substantial resources to build their own tech-
powered experiences.
▪Examples of virtual winery events include free online
wine tasting sessions, educational seminars about
wine production, and “meet and greets” with individual
wine makers. Consumers generally register for these
events with the winery, allowing the winery to gain
insights into potential customers and the ability to
retarget participants with future offers. These events
will continue to be relevant as travel remains
Image source: Unsplash disrupted.

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: alternative models
▪ Alternative models, particularly resale and rental services, face sharp challenges during
the active outbreak crisis. Shipping and supply chain disruptions are affecting retail as a
Now: Dealing whole, but pose a particularly acute threat for these services, which have particularly
with the
outbreak complex operations. In the short term, consumers are likely to be hesitant about using
items previously owned by strangers due to hygiene concerns.
▪ These same services seemed poised for a strong recovery as concerns about the virus
abate. First, many brands - especially in the fashion space - are likely to struggle with
Post-lockdown: excess seasonal inventory due to slow demand during the first half of 2020. Some will turn
Resurfacing and to resale platforms to handle this inventory. Second, an economic recession could drive
recovery
more consumers to buy and sell second-hand due to constrained finances.
▪ Over the long term, the performance of alternative models will revert closer to the
baseline, as the public health scenario and consumer spending stabilise. A growing
audience will expect to have the option to access an item rather than own it permanently,
3-10 years later
and companies that offer these services will be aided by new shopping technology such
as social selling and microfulfilment centres.

Vestiaire Collective: growing funds and sales during crisis
▪Vestiaire Collective is a Paris-based, global resale

marketplace focused on second-hand sales of luxury
goods. In mid-April 2020, the company announced it
had completed a new funding round totalling USD63
million. According to Vestiaire Collective, the funds will
be directed towards international expansion, notably
in the US, Japan and South Korea.
▪According to an interview with the Business of
Fashion, the company has observed a sales surge as
the COVID-19 crisis has advanced, with daily sales in
Europe reportedly up 20%. As an e-commerce player,
Vestiaire Collective has been relatively unaffected by
store closures.
▪In another positive sign for the resale sector, luxury
resale competitor The RealReal has reportedly
experienced a sharp uptick in interest during the
pandemic from luxury brands in its RealReal B2B
service. Through this offering, brands can quietly
offload excess merchandise via The RealReal,
avoiding possible damage to brand equity from the
kinds of discounting that might otherwise be
necessary.
Image source: Analysts own

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: checkout and fulfilment
▪ Consumer interest in seamless checkout and fulfilment was sharply accelerated by the
COVID-19 crisis as shoppers worldwide sought to mitigate the risk of virus exposure
Now: Dealing during essential shopping and restaurant trips. As a result, many consumers tried new
with the
outbreak options such as digital wallets, curbside pick-up and last-mile delivery services for the first
time as a result of the pandemic.
▪ It will take time for consumers to feel fully comfortable in stores and restaurants even
once the outbreak ends. As a result, many consumers are likely to continue to opt for
Post-lockdown: these services out of perceived safety even once brick-and-mortar locations can fully
Resurfacing and reopen. Further, some shoppers will be drawn to the convenience of these services, and
recovery
continue to prefer them regardless of safety concerns.
▪ The COVID-19 pandemic will likely prove to accelerate trends that were already in motion
around seamless checkout and fulfilment. Omnichannel solutions such as hyperlocal
delivery and click and collect will be minimum entry requirements. New outlets will be
3-10 years later
designed with these shifts in mind, and are likely to include new features such as separate
areas for last- mile delivery order fulfilment and cashierless checkout options.

Westfield Shopping Centres: multi-retailer click and collect
▪Australian shopping centre brand Westfield launched

a new service for consumers at its approximately 35
malls in Australia in mid-April 2020 due to the COVID-
19 pandemic. Called Westfield Direct, the service
allows consumers to place a click-and-collect order
through the Westfield Direct website. Orders are
collected by shoppers via a low contact drive-thru.
▪Many retailers and foodservice players globally are
racing to implement click-and-collect and curbside
pick-up options for shoppers wary of entering brick-
and-mortar locations during the crisis. What sets
Westfield’s initiative apart is the fact that consumers
can include items from any merchant with a storefront
at their selected shopping centre in a single
transaction. According to the company, consumers
can order from more than 350 brands via Westfield
Direct, ranging from fast food and supermarkets to
beauty specialists and pet shops.
▪While the service was introduced as a response to the
pandemic, it is easy to imagine consumers enjoying
the convenience of such a service enough to continue
to utilise it over the long term.

INTRODUCTION
MEGATREND IMPACT
▪ ETHICAL LIVING
▪ EXPERIENCE MORE
▪ HEALTHY LIVING
▪ PREMIUMISATION
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
COVID-19 impact at a glance (1)
Trend Outlook
Connected During the lockdowns, the internet quickly turned into a lifeline for shut-in consumers as
Consumers they sought to live, work, shop and play through digital channels. Consumers, including
older generations, learned new or perfected digital-based habits, such as e-learning,
telemedicine and online shopping, that are likely to continue at high levels in the recovery
phase and beyond. This COVID-19 outbreak will accelerate the digital transformation
that was already well under way even before the crisis.
Ethical Living The pandemic has brought a renewed interest in social and corporate governance
issues, especially those around health, mental wellbeing, job security and financial
struggles.
As the crisis evolves, it will be relatively easy for consumers to discern which companies
remain highly aligned with their purpose and values beyond the outbreak. With both
environmental and social risks intrinsically linked, consumers will remind companies of
their wider obligations in terms of the planet and society, with brand activism becoming
more important.
Experience Under the global lockdown, Experience More has quickly transformed into experience
More less in the physical world, and experience more virtually. During the immediate crisis,
consumers have shifted online in their masses for remote working, home schooling and
socialising, accelerating a trend that was already in play. Global brands have put
everything on hold in an attempt to help the global effort against the disease, getting
creative for the greater good, where value adding means saving lives in a global health
crisis. Post-COVID-19, brands that took a purposeful stand will be rewarded with loyalty.

CONCLUSION
Trend Outlook
Healthy Living The COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating all wellness-related micro trends, with the
basic principles of health and keeping diseases at bay as a core short-term priority.
Certain newly formed habits around preventative health, such as telehealth and tech-
enabled diagnostics are set to gain further ground in the longer term, while mental
and emotional health will play an even greater role in the pursuit of an optimal holistic
state of wellbeing.
Middle Class Middle class consumers emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic will be more
Retreat cautious and more selective in their purchasing decisions as a result of lower
disposable incomes, anxiety and uncertainty about their future earnings as
expectations of a 2020 global recession deepen. The manifestation of this
megatrend, which encompasses post-recessionary consumption habits such as thrift,
bargain hunting, access over ownership, will intensify in both developed countries
and emerging and developing markets.
Premiumisation Shuttered shops (many of them permanently) and cash-strapped consumers mean
real headwinds for premiumisation as a trend. Conspicuous consumption is out,
while product manufacturers have hit pause on near-term product innovation to
ensure core, staple products remain on shelves. That said, the near- to mid-term
disappearance of a host of out-of-home experiences means an enormous amount of
spending will be in play for manufacturers offering credible at-home substitutes.

CONCLUSION
Trend Outlook
Shifting Market The global economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will
Frontiers accelerate the Shifting Market Frontiers megatrend. As consumers in Asia and
Africa are expected to suffer smaller income losses, compared to Europe and
Americas, they will grow in significance. Global companies will increasingly put
more emphasis on these frontier markets in order to secure future
growth. Companies that understand changing Asian and African consumer
preferences and can react by helping local communities to fight the pandemic will
be the winners in the long run.
Shopping Reinvented The shifts in consumer behaviour that emerged in response to COVID-19 will
accelerate the need for brands to redesign checkout, fulfilment and ownership
models, which sit at the heart of Shopping Reinvented. Experiential shopping is
likely to take a backseat in the short term, but the brands that will be the most
successful over the next 5-10 years will start the process for reimagining
shopping experiences to be more virtual now.

CONCLUSION
Leverage the power of megatrends to shape your strategy today
The importance of megatrend Don’t miss our other How Euromonitor Consulting
analysis megatrend reports can help
▪Today’s environment of fast- ▪Experience More ▪In addition to education and
paced change makes it more ▪Shifting Market Frontiers awareness, Euromonitor
challenging than ever to keep International partners with
▪Healthy Living
up with competitors. Megatrend businesses to quantify the
analysis helps businesses better ▪Shopping Reinvented current and forecast impact of
anticipate market developments ▪Middle Class Retreat megatrends, prioritising which
and lead both incremental and ▪Ethical Living megatrends and
disruptive change for their industry/category level trends to
▪Premiumisation
industries. Euromonitor’s white innovate against and the next
paper “Megatrend Analysis: ▪Connected Consumers steps for the company. To learn
Putting the Consumer at the more about how we can activate
Heart of Business” provides megatrend analysis at your
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megatrend analysis for your http://www.euromonitor.com/con
business. sulting-consultation-request.

FOR FURTHER INSIGHT PLEASE CONTACT
Alison Angus Irina Barbalova
Head of Lifestyles Global Lead, Beauty and Health
alison.angus@euromonitor.com irina.barbalova@euromonitor.com
Michelle Evans An Hodgson

Senior Head of Digital Consumer Head of Income and Expenditure
michelle.evans@euromonitor.com an.hodgson@euromonitor.com
Maria Coronada Robles Amanda Bourlier

Senior Consultant Sustainability Head of Retailing Research
alison.angus@euromonitor.com Amanda.bourlier@euromonitor.com
Caroline Bremner Indre Cesniene

Head of Travel Research Head of Economies & Consumers
caroline.bremner@euromonitor.com Analysis Research
indre.cesniene @euromonitor.com
Michael Schaefer
Global Lead, Food & Beverage
michael.schaefer@Euromonitor.com
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The Impact of Coronavirus On Megatrends

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THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 3

Leaders harness megatrends to disrupt a market

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 4

COVID-19 impact on the drivers shaping consumer behaviour

There are five socioeconomic drivers generating and shaping

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© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 6

Impact of COVID-19 on Connected Consumers

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Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: lifestyle Change

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Disney: streaming service booms while other businesses decline

▪Shut-in consumers turned to streaming services to battle

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Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: digital Democratisation

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 11

AT&T: joins other mobile operators in keeping world connected

▪As many schools, universities and companies moved to

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 12

Impact of COVID-19 on Ethical Living

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 14

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: waste not, I want not

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 15

Refill app: reusable items can be safe and hygienic

▪ Refill is a nationwide scheme providing a network of

Image source: Unsplash

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 16

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: transparency rules

▪ COVID-19 has emphasised the importance of brand transparency, with consumers

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 17

UK university: fighting COVID-19 with blockchain transparency

▪ Birmingham City University Business School has

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Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: socially active

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 19

Ben & Jerry’s: using virtual activism to address forgotten needs

▪Bought by Unilever in 2000, the ice cream company

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 20

Impact of COVID-19 on Experience More

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Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: living it - interactive

▪ Already in 2020, 41% of global consumers socialise online according to Euromonitor’s

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Zoom: bringing people together online in a crisis

▪Zoom is a video conference calling app with real-time

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 24

Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: reinforced benefits

© Euromonitor International THE IMPACT OF CORONAVIRUS ON MEGATRENDS PASSPORT 25

Brewdog: putting purpose into practice

▪From its iconoclastic roots, Brewdog is now a global

Image source: Brewdog

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Impact of COVID-19 on key sub-trends: immersive

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Faroe Islands: immersing visitors during the global shutdown

▪The Faroe Islands is an autonomous archipelago in

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Impact of COVID-19 on Healthy Living