Probability Presentation Abdullah Al Rafi

PROBABILITY
proffessor dr abdulah al rafi
Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons. All right reserved
Opening Example

EXPERIMENT, OUTCOMES, AND SAMPLE SPACE
Definition
An experiment is a process that, when
performed, results in one and only one of
many observations. These observations are
called that outcomes of the experiment.
The collection of all outcomes for an
experiment is called a sample space.

Table 4.1 Examples of Experiments, Outcomes,
and Sample Spaces

Example 4-1
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the

experiment of tossing a coin once.

Figure 4.1 (a) Venn Diagram and (b) tree diagram
for one toss of a coin.

Example 4-2
Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the

experiment of tossing a coin twice.

Figure 4.2 (a) Venn diagram and (b) tree diagram
for two tosses of a coin.

Example 4-3
Suppose we randomly select two workers

from a company and observe whether the
worker selected each time is a man or a
woman. Write all the outcomes for this
experiment. Draw the Venn and tree
diagrams for this experiment.

Figure 4.3 (a) Venn diagram and (b) tree diagram
for selecting two workers.

Simple and Compound Events
Definition
An event is a collection of one or more of
the outcomes of an experiment.

Definition
An event that includes one and only one of
the (final) outcomes for an experiment is
called a simple event and is denoted by Ei.

Example 4-4
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers

from a company and observing whether the worker
selected each time is a man or a woman. Each of the
final four outcomes (MM, MW, WM, and WW) for this
experiment is a simple event. These four events can
be denoted by E1, E2, E3, and E4, respectively. Thus,
E1 = (MM), E2 = (MW), E3 = (WM), and E4 = (WW)

Definition
A compound event is a collection of more
than one outcome for an experiment.

Example 4-5
Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers
from a company and observing whether the worker
selected each time is a man or a woman. Let A be
the event that at most one man is selected. Event
A will occur if either no man or one man is selected.
Hence, the event A is given by
A = {MW, WM, WW}
Because event A contains more than one outcome,

it is a compound event. The Venn diagram in Figure
4.4 gives a graphic presentation of compound event
A.

Figure 4.4 Venn diagram for event A.

Example 4-6
In a group of a people, some are in favor of genetic
engineering and others are against it. Two persons are
selected at random from this group and asked whether they
are in favor of or against genetic engineering. How many
distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a Venn diagram and a
tree diagram for this experiment. List all the outcomes
included in each of the following events and mention whether
they are simple or compound events.
(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.

(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic engineering.

Example 4-6: Solution
Let
 F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
 A = a person is against genetic engineering
 FF = both persons are in favor of genetic engineering
 FA = the first person is in favor and the second is
against
 AF = the first is against and the second is in favor
 AA = both persons are against genetic engineering

Figure 4.5 Venn and tree diagrams.

a) Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering

= { FF }
Because this event includes only one of the final
four outcomes, it is a simple event.
b) At most one person is against genetic
engineering = { FF, FA, AF }
Because this event includes more than one
outcome, it is a compound event.
c) Exactly one person is in favor of genetic
engineering = { FA, AF }
It is a compound event.
CALCULATING PROBABLITY
Definition
Probability is a numerical measure of the
likelihood that a specific event will occur.

Two Properties of Probability
 The probability of an event always lies in the range 0 to 1.
 The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final

outcomes) for an experiment, denoted by ΣP(Ei), is
always 1.

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability
Classical Probability
Definition
Two or more outcomes (or events) that
have the same probability of occurrence
are said to be equally likely outcomes
(or events).

Classical Probability
Classical Probability Rule to Find Probability
1
P( Ei ) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment
Number of outcomes favorable to A

P( A) 
Total number of outcomes for the experiment

Example 4-7
Find the probability of obtaining a head and

the probability of obtaining a tail for one
toss of a coin.

1 1
P(head )    .50
Total number of outcomes 2
Similarly,
1
P( tail)   .50
2

Example 4-8
Find the probability of obtaining an even

number in one roll of a die.

A = {2, 4, 6}. If any one of these three
numbers is obtained, event A is said to occur.
Hence,
Number of outcomes included in A 3

P(head )    .50
Total number of outcomes 6

Example 4-9
In a group of 500 women, 120 have played

golf at least once. Suppose one of these 500
women is randomly selected. What is the
probability that she has played golf at least
once?

One hundred twenty of these 500 outcomes are
included in the event that the selected woman
has played golf at least once. Hence,
120
P (selected woman has played golf at least once)   .24
500

Relative Frequency Concept of Probability
Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of

Probability
If an experiment is repeated n times and an
event A is observed f times, then, according to
the relative frequency concept of probability,
f
P( A) 
n
Example 4-10
Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars

manufactured at a certain auto factory are
found to be lemons. Assuming that the
lemons are manufactured randomly, what is
the probability that the next car
manufactured at this auto factory is a
lemon?

Let n denotes the total number of cars in the

sample and f the number of lemons in n. Then,
n = 500 and f = 10
Using the relative frequency concept of
probability, we obtain
f 10
P(next car is a lemon)    .02
n 500

Table 4.2 Frequency and Relative Frequency
Distributions for the Sample of Cars

Law of Large Numbers
Definition
Law of Large Numbers If an experiment is
repeated again and again, the probability of
an event obtained from the relative
frequency approaches the actual or
theoretical probability.

Subjective Probability
Definition
Subjective probability is the probability
assigned to an event based on subjective
judgment, experience, information and
belief.

COUNTING RULE
Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes
If an experiment consists of three steps and if

the first step can result in m outcomes, the
second step in n outcomes, and the third in k
outcomes, then
Total outcomes for the experiment = m · n · k

Example 4-12
Suppose we toss a coin three times. This

experiment has three steps: the first toss, the
second toss and the third toss. Each step has two
outcomes: a head and a tail. Thus,
Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8
The eight outcomes for this experiment are

HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, TTH, and TTT

Example 4-13
A prospective car buyer can choose between

a fixed and a variable interest rate and can
also choose a payment period of 36 months,
48 months, or 60 months. How many total
outcomes are possible?

There are two outcomes (a fixed or a variable

interest rate) for the first step and three outcomes
(a payment period of 36 months, 48 months, or
60 months) for the second step. Hence,
Total outcomes = 2 x 3 = 6

Example 4-14
A National Football League team will play 16 games
during a regular season. Each game can result in
one of three outcomes: a win, a lose, or a tie. The
total possible outcomes for 16 games are calculated
as follows:
Total outcomes = 3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3·3 ·3·3·3·3
= 316 = 43,046,721
One of the 43,046,721 possible outcomes is all 16
wins.

MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL
PROBABILITIES
Suppose all 100 employees of a company were

asked whether they are in favor of or against
paying high salaries to CEOs of U.S. companies.
Table 4.3 gives a two way classification of the
responses of these 100 employees.

Table 4.3 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses

Table 4.4 Two-Way Classification of Employee
Responses with Totals

PROBABILITIES
Definition
Marginal probability is the probability of a
single event without consideration of any
other event. Marginal probability is also
called simple probability.

Table 4.5 Listing the Marginal Probabilities
P (M ) = 60/100 = .60
P (F ) = 40/100 = .40
P (A ) = 19/100 P (B ) = 81/100
= .19 = .81

PROBABILITIES

PROBABILITIES
Definition
Conditional probability is the probability that an
event will occur given that another has already
occurred. If A and B are two events, then the
conditional probability A given B is written as
P(A|B)
and read as “the probability of A given that B has
already occurred.”

Example 4-15
Compute the conditional probability

P ( in favor | male) for the data on 100
employees given in Table 4.4.

Number of males who are in favor 15

P(in favor | male)    .25
Total number of males 60

Figure 4.6 Tree Diagram.

Example 4-16
For the data of Table 4.4, calculate the

conditional probability that a randomly
selected employee is a female given that
this employee is in favor of paying high
salaries to CEOs.

Number of females who are in favor

P(female | in favor) 
Total number of employees who are in favor
4
  .2105
19
Figure 4.7 Tree diagram.

Case Study 4-1 Rolling Stops

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
Definition
Events that cannot occur together are said
to be mutually exclusive events.

Example 4-17
Consider the following events for one roll of a

die:
A= an even number is observed= {2, 4, 6}
B= an odd number is observed= {1, 3, 5}
C= a number less than 5 is observed= {1, 2, 3, 4}
Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are
events A and C mutually exclusive?


Example 4-18
Consider the following two events for a

randomly selected adult:
Y = this adult has shopped on the Internet at
least once
N = this adult has never shopped on the Internet
Are events Y and N mutually exclusive?

As we can observe from the definitions of events Y and N
and from Figure 4.10, events Y and N have no common
outcome. Hence, these two events are mutually exclusive.

INDEPENDENT VERSUS DEPENDENT EVENTS
Definition
Two events are said to be independent if the
occurrence of one does not affect the
probability of the occurrence of the other. In
other words, A and B are independent
events if
either P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B)

Example 4-19
Refer to the information on 100 employees

given in Table 4.4 in Section 4.4. Are
events “female (F)” and “in favor (A)”
independent?

Events F and A will be independent if
P (F) = P (F | A)
Otherwise they will be dependent.

Using the information given in Table 4.4, compute
P (F) = 40/100 = .40 and

P (F | A) = 4/19 = .2105
Because these two probabilities are not equal, the
two events are dependent.

Example 4-20
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were
manufactured on two machines. Of them, 60 were
manufactured on Machine I. Of the total CDs, 15
are defective. Of the 60 CDs that were
manufactured on Machine I, 9 are defective.
Let D be the event that a randomly selected CD is
defective, and let A be the event that a randomly
selected CD was manufactured on Machine I. Are
events D and A independent?

From the given information,

P (D) = 15/100 = .15 and
P (D | A) = 9/60 = .15
Hence,
P (D) = P (D | A)
Consequently, the two events, D and A, are
independent.

Table 4.6 Two-Way Classification Table

COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
Definition
The complement of event A, denoted by Ā
and is read as “A bar” or “A complement,” is
the event that includes all the outcomes for
an experiment that are not in A.

Figure 4.11 Venn diagram of two complementary
events.

Example 4-21
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have

been audited by the IRS at least once. If one
taxpayer is randomly selected from this
group, what are the two complementary
events for this experiment, and what are
their probabilities?

The two complementary events for this experiment

are
 A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at
least once
 Ā = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the
IRS
The probabilities of the complementary events are
P (A) = 400/2000 = .20 and
P (Ā) = 1600/2000 = .80

Figure 4.12 Venn diagram.

Example 4-22
In a group of 5000 adults, 3500 are in favor

of stricter gun control laws, 1200 are
against such laws, and 300 have no opinion.
One adult is randomly selected from this
group. Let A be the event that this adult is
in favor of stricter gun control laws. What is
the complementary event of A? What are
the probabilities of the two events?

The two complementary events for this experiment

are
 A = the selected adult is in favor of stricter gun control
laws
 Ā = the selected adult either is against such laws or has
no opinion
The probabilities of the complementary events are
P (A) = 3500/5000 = .70 and
P (Ā) = 1500/5000 = .30

Figure 4.13 Venn diagram.

INTERSECTION OF EVENTS AND THE
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Intersection of Events
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The intersection of A and B
represents the collection of all outcomes that
are common to both A and B and is denoted
by
A and B
Figure 4.14 Intersection of events A and B.

MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule
Definition
The probability of the intersection of two
events is called their joint probability. It is
written as
P(A and B)

MULTIPLICATION RULE
Multiplication Rule to Find Joint Probability

events A and B is
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B |A)

Example 4-23
Table 4.7 gives the classification of all employees of
a company given by gender and college degree.

Example 4-23
If one of these employees is selected at

random for membership on the employee-
management committee, what is the
probability that this employee is a female
and a college graduate?

We are to calculate the probability of the

intersection of the events F and G.
P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)

P(F) = 13/40
P(G |F) = 4/13
P(F and G) = P(F) P(G |F)
= (13/40)(4/13) = .100

Figure 4.15 Intersection of events F and G.

Figure 4.16 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

Example 4-24
A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are

defective. If two DVDs are selected at
random (without replacement) from this
box, what is the probability that both are
defective?

Let us define the following events for this
experiment:
G1 = event that the first DVD selected is good
D1 = event that the first DVD selected is defective
G2 = event that the second DVD selected is good
D2 = event that the second DVD selected is defective
We are to calculate the joint probability of D1 and D2,

P(D1 and D2) = P(D1) P(D2 |D1)
P(D1) = 4/20
P(D2 |D1) = 3/19
P(D1 and D2) = (4/20)(3/19) = .0316

Figure 4.17 Selecting two DVDs.

MULTIPLICATION RULE
Calculating Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events, then,
P( A and B) P( A and B)
P( B | A)  and P( A | B) 
P( A) P( B)
given that P (A ) ≠ 0 and P (B ) ≠ 0.

Example 4-25
The probability that a randomly selected

student from a college is a senior is .20, and
the joint probability that the student is a
computer science major and a senior is .03.
Find the conditional probability that a
student selected at random is a computer
science major given that the student is a
senior.

Let us define the following two events:

 A = the student selected is a senior
 B = the student selected is a computer science major
P(A) = .20 and P(A and B) = .03
Hence,
P (B | A) = P(A and B)/P(A) = .03/.20 = .15

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
Multiplication Rule to Calculate the

Probability of Independent Events

independent events A and B is
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)

Example 4-26
An office building has two fire detectors. The

probability is .02 that any fire detector of
this type will fail to go off during a fire. Find
the probability that both of these fire
detectors will fail to go off in case of a fire.

We define the following two events:
A = the first fire detector fails to go off during

a fire
B = the second fire detector fails to go off
during a fire
Then, the joint probability of A and B is

P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) = (.02)(.02) = .0004

Example 4-27
The probability that a patient is allergic to
penicillin is .20. Suppose this drug is
administered to three patients.
a) Find the probability that all three of them are

allergic to it.
b) Find the probability that at least one of the them
is not allergic to it.

a) Let A, B, and C denote the events the first,

second and third patients, respectively, are
allergic to penicillin. Hence,
P (A and B and C) = P(A) P(B) P(C)

= (.20) (.20) (.20) = .008

b) Let us define the following events:

G = all three patients are allergic
H = at least one patient is not allergic
 P(G) = P(A and B and C) = .008
 Therefore, using the complementary event
rule, we obtain
 P(H) = 1 – P(G) = 1 - .008 = .992

Figure 4.18 Tree diagram for joint probabilities.

Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
Joint Probability of Mutually Exclusive Events
The joint probability of two mutually

exclusive events is always zero. If A and B
are two mutually exclusive events, then
P(A and B) = 0

Example 4-28
Consider the following two events for an

application filed by a person to obtain a car
loan:
A = event that the loan application is approved
R = event that the loan application is rejected
What is the joint probability of A and R?

The two events A and R are mutually

exclusive. Either the loan application will be
approved or it will be rejected. Hence,
P(A and R) = 0

UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION RULE
Definition
Let A and B be two events defined in a
sample space. The union of events A and B
is the collection of all outcomes that belong
to either A or B or to both A and B and is
denoted by
A or B

Example 4-29
A senior citizen center has 300 members.

Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis, and 95
are male and take at least one medicine on
a permanent basis. Describe the union of
the events “male” and “take at least one
medicine on a permanent basis.”

 Let us define the following events:

M = a senior citizen is a male
F = a senior citizen is a female
A = a senior citizen takes at least one medicine
B = a senior citizen does not take any medicine
 The union of the events “male” and “take at least

one medicine” includes those senior citizens who
are either male or take at least one medicine or
both. The number of such senior citizen is
140 + 210 – 95 = 255

Table 4.8

Figure 4.19 Union of events M and A.

UNION OF EVENTS AND THE ADDITION
RULE
Addition Rule
Addition Rule to Find the Probability of Union

of Events
The portability of the union of two events A
and B is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)

Example 4-30
A university president has proposed that all

students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty
members and students from this university were
asked about their opinion on this issue. Table 4.9
gives a two-way classification of the responses of
these faculty members and students.
Find the probability that one person selected at

random from these 300 persons is a faculty
member or is in favor of this proposal.

Table 4.9 Two-Way Classification of Responses

Let us define the following events:
A = the person selected is a faculty member
B = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
From the information in the Table 4.9,

P(A) = 70/300 = .2333
P(B) = 135/300 = .4500
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B | A) = (70/300)(45/70) = .1500
Using the addition rule, we obtain

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
= .2333 + .4500 – .1500 = .5333

Example 4-31
In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are

female, 600 are vegetarian, and 400 are
female and vegetarian. What is the
probability that a randomly selected person
from this group is a male or vegetarian?


F = the randomly selected person is a female
M = the randomly selected person is a male
V = the randomly selected person is a vegetarian
N = the randomly selected person is a non-vegetarian.
P( M or V )  P( M )  P(V )  P( M and V )
1100 600 200
  
2500 2500 2500
 .44  .24  .08  .60
Table 4.10 Two-Way Classification Table

Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events
Addition Rule to Find the Probability of the

Union of Mutually Exclusive Events
The probability of the union of two mutually

exclusive events A and B is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

Example 4-32
A university president has proposed that all
students must take a course in ethics as a
requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty
members and students from this university were
asked about their opinion on this issue. The
following table, reproduced from Table 4.9 in
Example 4-30, gives a two-way classification of
the responses of these faculty members and
students.
What is the probability that a randomly selected
person from these 300 faculty members and
students is in favor of the proposal or is neutral?


F = the person selected is in favor of the proposal
N = the person selected is neutral

P(F) = 135/300 = .4500
P(N) = 40/300 = .1333
Hence,
P(F or N) = P(F) + P(N) = .4500 + .1333 = .5833

Figure 4.20 Venn diagram of mutually exclusive
events.

Example 4-33
Consider the experiment of rolling a die

twice. Find the probability that the sum of
the numbers obtained on two rolls is 5, 7,
or 10.

Table 4.11 Two Rolls of a Die

P(sum is 5 or 7 or 10)
= P(sum is 5) + P(sum is 7) + P(sum is 10)
= 4/36 + 6/36 + 3/36 = 13/36 = .3611

Example 4-34
The probability that a person is in favor of

genetic engineering is .55 and that a
person is against it is .45. Two persons are
randomly selected, and it is observed
whether they favor or oppose genetic
engineering.
a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment
b) Find the probability that at least one of the two
persons favors genetic engineering.

a) Let
F = a person is in favor of genetic engineering
A = a person is against genetic engineering
This experiment has four outcomes. The tree

diagram in Figure 4.21 shows these four
outcomes and their probabilities.

Figure 4.21 Tree diagram.

b) P(at least one person favors)

= P(FF or FA or AF)
= P(FF) + P(FA) + P(AF)
= .3025 + .2475 + .2475 = .7975

TI-84
Screen 4.1

Minitab
Screen 4.2

Minitab
Screen 4.3

Excel
Screen 4.4


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PROBABILITY

proffessor dr abdulah al rafi

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Draw the Venn and tree diagrams for the

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Suppose we randomly select two workers

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Reconsider Example 4-3 on selecting two workers

E1 = (MM), E2 = (MW), E3 = (WM), and E4 = (WW)

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Because event A contains more than one outcome,

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

(a) Both persons are in favor of the genetic engineering.

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

a) Both persons are in favor of genetic engineering

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

 The sum of the probabilities of all simple events (or final

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Number of outcomes favorable to A

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Find the probability of obtaining a head and

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Find the probability of obtaining an even

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Number of outcomes included in A 3

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

In a group of 500 women, 120 have played

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Using Relative Frequency as an Approximation of

Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Let n denotes the total number of cars in the

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Counting Rule to Find Total Outcomes

If an experiment consists of three steps and if

Prem Mann, Introductory Statistics, 7/E

Suppose we toss a coin three times. This

Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 2 x 2 x 2 = 8

The eight outcomes for this experiment are