Chapter 4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distribution

Chapter 4.
Continuous Random Variables and

Probability Distribution
Session 10
PhD. Tri Tuyen Luc
December 17, 2021

4.1 Continuous Random Variables
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density Functions
4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions
4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable
4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution
Recall from Chapter 2 that a continuous random variable is a

random variable with an interval (either finite or infinite) of real
numbers for its range. The model provides for any precision in
length measurements.
PhD. Tri Tuyen Luc Chapter 4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distr
4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density

Functions
Definition 1 (Probability Density Function).
For a continuous random variable X, a probability density function of X
is a function such that
(1) f (x) ≥ 0
R∞
(2) f (x)dx = 1
−∞
Rb
(3) P (a ≤ X ≤ b) = f (x)dx= area under f (x) from a to b for any a
a
and b.
Notice: If Xis a continuous random variable, for any x1 and x2
P (x1 ≤ X ≤ x2 ) = P (x1 ≤ X < x2 ) = P (x1 < X ≤ x2 ) = P (x1 < X < x2 ).

Functions
Example 4.1: Let the continuous random variable X denote the diameter
of a hole drilled in a sheet metal component. The target diameter is 12.5
millimeters. Most random disturbances to the process result in larger
diameters. Historical data show that the distribution of X can be
modeled by a probability density function f (x) = 20e−20(x−12.5) ,
x ≥ 12.5.
If a part with a diameter larger than 12.60 millimeters is scrapped, what
proportion of parts is scrapped?
Solution: A part is scrapped if
X > 12.6, then
R∞
P (X > 12.6) = f (x)dx
12.6
R∞ −20(x−12.5)
= 20e dx
12.6 ∞
= −e−20(x−12.5) 12.6 = 0.135.

Functions
Example 4.2: The probability density function of the time to failure of an
electronic component in a copier (in hours) is f (x) = e−x/1000 /1000 for
x > 0. Determine the probability that
(a) A component lasts more than 3000 hours before failure.
R∞
P (X > 3000) = f (x)dx = 0.05.
3000
(b) A component fails in the interval from 1000 to 2000 hours.
2000
R
P (1000 < X < 2000) = f (x)dx = 0.233.
1000
(c) A component fails before 1000 hours.
1000
R
P (X < 1000) = f (x)dx = 0.632.
0
(d) Determine the number of hours at which 10% of all components have failed.
Rx
P (X < x) = 0.1 ⇔ f (x)dx = 0.1 ⇔ 1 − e−x/1000 = 0.1
0
⇔ x = −1000 ln 0.9 = 105.36.
Definition 2 (Cumulative distribution function).

The cumulative distribution function of a continuous random
variable X is
Z x
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = f (u)du, (1)
−∞
for −∞ < x < ∞.
Notice: Given F (x), if the the derivative of F (x) exists, then
dF (x)
f (x) = .
dx

Example 4.3: In the Example 4.2, we have
e−x/1000
f (x) = for x > 0
1000
Hence F (x) = 0 for x < 0 and
x
e−x/1000
Z
F (x) = dx = 1 − e−x/1000 for x ≥ 0.
0 1000
Therefore, (
0 x<0
F (x) = .
1 − e−x/1000 0≤x
⇒ P (X < 3000) = P (X ≤ 3000) = F (3000) = 1 − e−3 = 0.95.
Example 4.4: Suppose the cumulative distribution function of the

random variable X is

0
 x<0
F (x) = 0.2x 0 ≤ x < 5

1 5≤x

then the probability density function is f (x) = 0.2 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 5.

(a) P (X < 2.8) = F (2.8) = 0.56
(b) P (X > 1.5) = 1 − P (X ≤ 1.5) = 1 − F (1.5) = 1 − 0.3 = 0.7.
(c) P (X < −2) = F (−2) = 0.
(d) P (X > 6) = 1 − P (X ≤ 6) = 1 − F (6) = 1 − 1 = 0.

Example 4.5: The probability density function of the time
customers arrive at a terminal (in minutes after 8:00A.M.) is
f (x) = e−x/10 /10 for x > 0. Determine the probability that
(a) The first customer arrives by 9:00 a.m.
F (x) = P (X ≤ x) = 1 − e−x/10 for x > 0 ⇒ P (X > 60) = e−6 = 0.002.
(b) The first customer arrives between 8:15 a.m. and 8:30 a.m.
R30
P (15 < X < 30) = f (x)dx = 0.173.
15
(c) Two or more customers arrive before 8:40 a.m. among five who arrive at
the terminal. Assume customer arrivals are independent.
p = P (X < 40) = 1 − e−4 = 0.982, Hence
1
5
x
p (1 − p)5−x = 0.999999.
P
P (Y ≥ 2) = 1 − P (Y ≤ 1) = 1 − x
x=0
(d) Determine the cumulative distribution function and use the cumulative
distribution function to determine the probability that the first customer arrives
between 8:15 a.m. and 8:30 a.m.
P (15 < X < 30) = F (30) − F (15) = e−1.5 − e−3 = 0.173.

Mean and Variance
Suppose X is a continuous random variable with probability
density function f (x). The mean or expected value of X, denoted
as µ or E(X), is
Z ∞
µ = E(X) = xf (x)dx (2)
−∞
The variance of X, denoted as V (X) or σ 2 , is

Z ∞ Z ∞
2 2
σ = V (X) = (x − µ) f (x)dx = x2 f (x)dx − µ2 .
−∞ −∞
√
The standard deviation of X is σ = σ2.
Example 4.5: In Example 4.4, f (x) = 0.2 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 5, then

Z 5 Z 5
5
2

E(X) = xf (x)dx = 0.2xdx = 0.1x = 2.5
0 0 0
Z 5 Z 5
2
V (X) = (x − 2.5) f (x)dx = (x − 2.5)2 (0.2)dx = 2.08
0 0
Or
Z 5 Z 5
2 2
V (X) = x f (x)dx − 2.5 = x2 (0.2)dx − 2.52 = 2.08.
0 0

Expected Value of a Function of a Continuous Random Variable
If X is a continuous random variable with probability density
function f (x),
Z ∞
E[h(X)] = h(x)f (x)dx. (3)
−∞
Example 4.6: In Example 4.1, f (x) = 20e−20(x−12.5) for x ≥ 12.5.

Z ∞
E(X) = 20x.e−20(x−12.5) dx = 12.55 (Integration by parts).
12.5
Z ∞
V (X) = E[(X − E(X))2 ] = 20(x − 12.55)2 .e−20(x−12.5) = 0.0025
12.5
(Two times of Integration by parts).


Example 4.7: Integration by parts is required. The probability density
function for the diameter of a drilled hole in millimeters is
f (x) = 10.e−10(x−5) for x > 5mm. Although the target diameter is 5
millimeters, vibrations, tool wear, and other nuisances produce diameters
larger than 5 millimeters.
(a) Determine the mean and variance of the diameter of the holes.
Z ∞ Z ∞
E(X) = xf (x)dx = 10x.e−10(x−5) dx
5 5
∞ ∞
e−10(x−5)
= −xe−10(x−5) −

10 = 5 + 0.1 = 5.1
5 5
Z ∞
V (X) = 10x2 .e−10(x−5) dx − 5.12 = 0.01
5
(b) Determine the probability that a diameter exceeds 5.1 millimeters.
Z 5.1
P (X > 5.1) = 1 − P (5 < X < 5.1) = f (x)dx = 0.632.
5
Definition 3 (Continuous uniform random variable).

A continuous random variable X with probability density function
1
f (x) = ,a ≤ x ≤ b (4)
b−a
is a continuous uniform random variable.
Mean and Variance

If X is a continuous uniform random variable over a ≤ x ≤ b,
a+b (b − a)2
µ = E(X) = and σ 2 = V (X) = (5)
2 12

For a < x < b, the cumulative distribution function of X is
calculated by Z x
1 x−a
F (x) = du = .
a b−a b−a
Hence, 

0 x<a
x − a
F (x) = a≤x<b

 b−a
1 b≤x

Example 4.8: Suppose X has a continuous uniform distribution over the

interval [1.5, 5.5].
(a) Determine the mean, variance, and standard deviation of X.
E(X) = (1.5 + 5.5)/2 = 3.5, V (X) = (5.5 − 1.5)/12 = 1/3, σ = 0.577.
(b) What is P (X < 2.5) = (2.5 − 1.5)/(5.5 − 1.5) = 0.25.

Example 4.9: The thickness of photoresist applied to wafers in
semiconductor manufacturing at a particular location on the wafer
is uniformly distributed between 0.2050 and 0.2150 micrometers.
(a) Determine the cumulative distribution function of photoresist
thickness.

0
 x < 0.205
F (x) = x−0.205
0.01 = 100x − 20.5 0.205 ≤ x < 0.215

1 0.215 ≤ x

(b) Determine the proportion of wafers that exceeds 0.2125 micrometers

in photoresist thickness.
P (X > 0.2125) = 1 − P (X ≤ 0.2125) = 1 − F (0.2125) = 0.25.
(c) What thickness is exceeded by 10% of the wafers?
P (X > x) = 0.1 ⇒ P (X ≤ x) = 0.9 ⇒ 100x − 20.5 = 0.9 ⇒ x = 0.214.
Thank you!

Chapter 4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distribution

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distribution

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 4. Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distribution

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Chapter 4.

Continuous Random Variables and

PhD. Tri Tuyen Luc

December 17, 2021

4.1 Continuous Random Variables

Recall from Chapter 2 that a continuous random variable is a

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density

4.2 Probability Distributions and Probability Density

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Definition 2 (Cumulative distribution function).

for −∞ < x < ∞.

Notice: Given F (x), if the the derivative of F (x) exists, then

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

Example 4.4: Suppose the cumulative distribution function of the

then the probability density function is f (x) = 0.2 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 5.

4.3 Cumulative Distribution Functions

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

The variance of X, denoted as V (X) or σ 2 , is

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

Example 4.5: In Example 4.4, f (x) = 0.2 for 0 ≤ x ≤ 5, then

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

Example 4.6: In Example 4.1, f (x) = 20e−20(x−12.5) for x ≥ 12.5.

(Two times of Integration by parts).

4.4 Mean and Variance of a Continuous Random Variable

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Definition 3 (Continuous uniform random variable).

Mean and Variance

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

Example 4.8: Suppose X has a continuous uniform distribution over the

4.5 Continuous Uniform Distribution

(b) Determine the proportion of wafers that exceeds 0.2125 micrometers

You might also like