LA NINA 2021/2022 :

THE PREDICITION AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT IN INDONESIA

Prof. Dwikorita Karnawati, Ph.D

H e a d o f t h e A g e n c y f o r M e t e o r o l o g y, C l i m a t o l o g y a n d G e o p h y s i c s ( B M K G )

Labuan Bajo - NTT, 13 December 2021

11
 OUTLINE

Background

Current Status and La Nina Impact

BMKG’s Early Warning System

Weather Prediction in Decision Support Systems

Lesson Learned

2
 CLIMATE DRIVERS

Indonesian climate is
dominantly modulated
by :

2019

2020

3
CURRENT STATUS AND LA NINA IMPACT

4
 CURRENT STATUS

• Since late of September, Sea

Surface Anomaly (SSTA) has
passed the La Nina threshold

• SST Anomaly:
• Early October : -0.61
• Mid October : -0.92
• Late October : -1.17
• Early November : -0.99
• Mid November : -1.08
• Late November : -0.89

5
 PREDICTION
UPDATE: MID NOVEMBER 2021

Neutral

 ENSO Status : La Nina weak to moderate

 BMKG: is very likely to continue up to Dec-Jan-Feb (winter time) and is likely up to March-Apr-May (spring)
 The second half of 2022 will be ENSO Neutral

6
LA NINA 2020/2021

• Last year, La Nina

occurred during
August 2020 –
March 2021
• Most of observation
reported “above
normal” rainfall
compared to 1991-
2020 average
• With similar
intensity, La Nina
2021/2022 is
expected to have
similar impact

7
BMKG’S EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

8
 Meteorology and Climatology Early Warning System
https://signature.bmkg.go.id
BMKG Provide Early Warning System Related with
Hidrometeorological Hazard :
System for Multi Generations Weather Model Analysis and Impact Forecast

1.Meteorological Early Warning System : Impact

Based Forecast (Signature), Tropical Cyclone
Warning Center (TCWC)
2. Climate Early Warning System : (El Nino/La Nina
Early Warning, Extreme Climate Early Warning
and Drought Early Warning
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warnig Center
EL Nino/La Nina Early Warnig Drought Early Warnig Extreme Rainfall Early Warnig

9
 HYDROMETEOROLOGY, HYDROGEOLOGY DAN HYDROLOGY
INFORMATION SYSTEM
(SIH3)

SIH3 is an Information Portal for Hydrology, Hydrometeorology, and

Hydrogeology management in Indonesia. Hydrological management
is carried out by the Ministry of Public Works (PU), hydrometeorology
by the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG),
and hydrogeology by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
(ESDM).
10
 FLOOD POTENTIAL AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR CROP

BMKG Provide Early Warning Related with

Flood Potential and Water Availability For Crop
, on Decade and Monthly Period

11
WEATHER PREDICTION IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS

12
OPERATIONAL WORK FLOW OF BMKG

13
 END TO END METEOROLOGY EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Disconnect
OBSERVATION PROCESSING DISSEMINATION STAKEHOLDER/
SYSTEM SYSTEM INFORMATION COMMUNITY

Support Services
14
FORECASTER WEATHER DATA SOURCES

41 Radar
F
A 113 Meteorological
Station
C
T Upper Air
102 Station

A Marine
N 14 Meteorological
Station
D
1200+ AWS
F
I 6 NWP Models
G
240 Maximal
U Forecast
R Hrs Range
E
Highest Spatial
S 3 Km Resolution

15
 VALUE CHAIN OF WEATHER SERVICES

Analysis & Production &

Observation Services
Forecasting Dissemination

 Surface Obs.
 NWP Data
 Synop  General Services
 Hires NWP  Production
 AWS/ARG  Preparation
 Assimilation  Consultation
 Pos Hujan  Monitoring
 Post Processing
 Upper Air Obs.
 Analysis
 Preparation  Specific Services
 Rason  Monitoring  Consultation
 Daily analysis
 Pibal  Dissemination  Preparation
 Specific Analysis
 Satellite Obs.  Monitoring  Monitoring
 Forecasting
 Geostationer  Early Warning
 Polar
 General Forecast  Reporting
 Thematic Forecast
 Radar Obs
 Early Warning
 Data integration

Forecast Verification; Quality Control; Evaluation

16
 INFORMASI IKLIM DAN CUACA BMKG
Musim (6 10 3 1 insidentil
1 Bulan 1 minggu
bulan) harian harian harian Nowcasting, Siklon.

Informasi Iklim BMKG

1. Prakiraan Musim Hujan
2. Prakiraan Curah Hujan Bulanan 24/7 operasional BMKG
3. Prakiraaan Curah Hujan Dasarian memonitor perkembangan
potensi cuaca ekstrem
Informasi Cuaca BMKG
1. Prospek Cuaca Mingguan
2. Prakiraan Cuaca 3 harian
3. Prakiraan Cuaca 1-7 hari
4. Prakiraan Berbasis Dampak (IBF)
5. Peringatan Dini Cuaca Ekstrem Nowcasting 1-6 jam kedepan
6. Peringatan Dini Khusus Siklon Tropis
Stakeholder Pusat &
Daerah
Informasi iklim dan cuaca BMKG Pusat
akan diteruskan dan dirinci lebih detail di
level propinsi oleh UPT BMKG Provinsi

17
 WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITES IN RAINFALL PREDICTION
(CASE ; IMPACT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENT)

TC CEMPAKA (radar) TC TERATAI (satelit)

Lahir 27 Nopember 2021 jam 04.00 WIB Lahir 01 Desember 2021 jam 19.00 WIB

BIBIT TC SEROJA (radar) TC SEROJA (satelit)

03 April 2021 jam 01.00 WIB Lahir 05 April 2021 jam 01.00 WIB
18
 WEATHER PREDICTION IN DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
(CASE; DAILY PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY)
Animasi Probabilitas Hujan Sedang-Lebat (>20mm/hari) 13-15 Desember 2021

Precipitation Probability 20 mm 24 hourly (bmkg.go.id)

Untuk periode tanggal 13-15 Desember 2021, potensi hujan intensitas Sedang-Lebat dengan probabilitas > 60% masih cukup
signifikan di wilayah Indonesia, termasuk di wilayah; Sumut, Sumbar, Bengkulu, Sumsel, Jambi, Jabar, Jateng, Jatim, Kalbar, Kalsel,
Kaltara, Sulsel, Sulbar, Papua.

19
 WATER-RELATED HAZARDS MITIGATION USING RAINFALL PREDICTION
(IMPACT BASED FORECAST BMKG)

Prakiraan berbasis dampak (Impact Based Forecast - IBF) adalah Platform

informasi yang mengkombinasikan potensi cuaca dengan indeks risiko hingga
dihasilkan prakiraan dampak dalam bentuk spasial digital.

Input Data;
1. Observation data , Radar & Satelite
2. NWP Model
3. Dynamic analysis
4. Risk Index (banjir/bandang/longsor)

Output Data Format;

1. Infographic (image)
2. API data
3. CAP (Common Alert Protocol)
4. SHP file

BMKG - Signature
20
 BMKG SIGNATURE
ARAH DAN KECEPATAN ANGIN

https://signature.bmkg.go.id/weather

21
 BMKG SIGNATURE
PRAKIRAAN CURAH HUJAN

https://signature.bmkg.go.id/weather

22
DAMPAK LANGSUNG DAN DAMPAK TIDAK LANGSUNG
SIKLON TROPIS

Dampak Langsung dan Dampak

Tidak Langsung Siklon Tropis

Sobat BMKG kejadian siklon tropis SEROJA di

Nusa Tenggara Timur memberikan dampak
yang sangat besar terhadap masyarakat dan
infrastruktur disana. Dampak tersebut
merupakan dampak langsung dari siklon
tropis karena berada sangat dekat dengan
wilayah NTT. Yuk ikutin pembahasan tentang
dampak siklon tropis di video ini.

23
 IBF BMKG IN ANOTHER PLATFOM

Severe Weather Information Centre 2.0 (wmo.int) Info Potensi Hujan Harian Berbasis Dampak (pu.go.id)

Output platform informasi IBF sudah berbasis digital dengan standar format; infografis,
CAP, API, SHP, sehingga dapat diimplementasikan dalam platform digital lainnya.

24
 DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
MARINE METEOROLOGY SERVICES
(INA-CIFS AND INA-WIS)

25
25
 INA - COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING SYSTEM (INA - CIFS)

MODEL PROCESS Dashboard Early Warning System

Output Model :
• Marunda
Muara Angke
Inundation map
• Expertizes by BMKG
• Water Level map / time – series
•
•
Wave condition
Wind speed and direction
Forecaster
• Impact Base Forecast
• Early warning product

RSS Feed

Dissemination System

Emergency
Response
 Vulnerability
Assesstment
 Risk Assestment
 Impact Assestment
https://maritim.bmkg.go.id/cifs
26
INA-CIFS MODEL PROCESS

INTEGRATION CIFS (BMKG) AND J-FEWS

27
 INA - WEATHER INFORMATION FOR SHIPPING

Ina-WIS Developed by BMKG since 2019

Multi-integration sytem between several

marine data, consist of:
 Marine meteorology observation (Marine AWS,
HF Radar, Satellite data)
 BMKG Ocean Forecast System
 AIS (Automatic Identification system) tracking
system
 Fishing ground
 Port weather forecast

https://maritim.bmkg.go.id/inawis

28
INA - WEATHER INFORMATION FOR SHIPPING

29
LESSON LEARNED

30
 HISTORY OF EL NINO / LA NINA

1950-1980 1981-2019
El nino / La nina : 5-7 TAHUN El nino / La nina : 2-3 TAHUN
(1991 - 2020)

⮚ Statistically, the return period for El Nino / La Nina in the 1981-2019 period has a
tendency to recur more quickly than the 1950-1980 period.
⮚ The percentage of La Nina events followed by EL Nino is 16.7%, Special for El
Nino - La Nina - El Nino events is only 1.5% (it happened in 1963-64-65).
31
 NUMBER AND AVERAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONS
IN THE SOUTH AREAS/ NEAR INDONESIA

JU 70 2,00
BULA M 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Jumlah Kejadian Siklon Tropis
1,80
N LA 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 60
H Rerata Kejadian Siklon Tropis
1,60

Jumlah Kejadian Siklon Tropis

50

Rerata Kejadian Silkon Tropis

JAN 55 0 0 1 0 2 1 2 1,40

FEB 56 1 1 1 1 1 0 3 1,20
40
MAR 60 1 2 0 2 2 3 0 1,00

30
0,80
APR 40 1 2 0 1 1 1 0

20 0,60
MEI 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
JUN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,40
10
JUL 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0,20

AGS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0,00
SEP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
1
Bulan
Keterangan;
OKT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
1. Kolom JUMLAH menunjukkan JUMLAH SIKLON TROPIS selama kurun waktu tahun
1984 – 31 Desember 2020 yang tumbuh di Area Monitoring dan Tanggung Jawab
NOV 13 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 TCWC Jakarta (wilayah 0-40S 90-145E).
2. Kolom TAHUN menunjukkan jumlah siklon tropis yang tumbuh pada bulan dan tahun
DES 37 2 0 1 1 2 0 0
tersebut. 32
 INCREASED EXTREME RAINFALL

BMKG 2020

Jakarta Floods: data from the last 100 years show that
- The frequency of flooding is increasing (more often in the last 3 decades)
- Corresponding to the increase in the intensity of the highest annual daily rainfall
(Sumber: Siswanto dkk., 2015, BAMS)

33
TEMPERATURE IN INDONESIA

34
 Indonesia's Climate Change Projection
(2020 - 2030)
HOW ARE THE DRY SEASONS IN THE FUTURE?
Baseline 2006 - 2016: current climatic conditions as a starting point for adaptation
action plans

: lebih hangat ~ 0.5∘C : lebih kering ~ 20%

Air temperature is projected to increase by 0.5 C in the The dry season in the
next 10 years (left). Rainfall in the dry season is
future will be hotter
projected to decrease by around 20% (right).
and drier
35
 Indonesia's Climate Change Projection
(2020 - 2030)
HOW ARE THE FUTURE RAIN SEASONS?
Baseline 2006 - 2016: current climatic conditions as a starting point for adaptation action plans

The amount of rainfall in the rainy season period did not change much (left),
but the number of days of heavy rain increased (right) → potency of
hydrometeorological disasters are increasing.
36
 CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION
The impact of global climate
change will also be felt in
Maximum Temperature Projection Indonesia (illustration on the main
islands):

• The temperature continues to

rise until the end of the 21st
century.

• Blue Curve: if greenhouse gas

emissions can be minimized
then the temperature rise curve
(will slope towards 2100).

• Red Curve: The temperature

rise will be higher if
greenhouse gas emissions are
not controlled.

• Every region in Indonesia will

experience a significant
increase in temperature at the
end of the century.
37
 CONCLUSIONS

Needs to evaluate and ensure the existing Water Storage

Capacity is in balance with the potential increment of future
extreme rainfall.

38
@infoBMKG

Jl. Angkasa 1 No.2 Kemayoran Jakarta Pusat, Indonesia

www.bmkg.go.id

Thank You

39